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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-23 Update: Gold Rips - SPY StallsHere is a quick update related to the post-Powell expectations. I still believe the SPY will consolidate through most of today and move into a broader rally phase next week and into early September. Gold is RIPPING higher after Powell's comments. I expect Gold to try to break above $2600 next week. Bitcoin is still struggling to break above the $63k level. It may make a move next week. Time will tell. Follow my research. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-23 : Harami Inside PatternToday's SPY Cycle Pattern is a Harami-Inside pattern. This suggests the SPY will stay rather muted today - trading sideways and likely staying between 557-560. I believe the SPY will trend upward a bit and try to close near 560. I don't believe we'll see any big trends today - mostly just sideways consolidation. Gold will likely attempt to move above $2450 - attempting to regain support above $2535. Bitcoin will stay somewhat flat - probably below $61.5k as the big move won't happen till next week. Today may be more of a "go golfing" day. Literally, the SPY/QQQ/Gold/Bitcoin will probably stay in a very narrow range today - moving into a bigger trend next week. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
Mag 7 Drags Down Large Cap - Potential Index Wedge FormationsThanks for checking out the video today. It was a reasonably nice selloff today, led mostly by the Mag 7 stocks. All US Indexes were in red, Nasdaq taking the worst of it around -1.60% lower. Powell on tap for Friday with Day 2 at Jackson Hole. The market is oh so curious if the FED will cut 25 or 50 bps in September and we have plenty of news to digest prior to the official September 18 FOMC Meeting and Press Conference. If Friday Aug 23's trading day pushes lower and helps balance out the aggressive bull moves from August 5's bottom, we could see a nice wedge pattern in the works - lower highs / higher lows. Watch the S&P Daily 200 SMA or 200 EMA for some dynamic support. It will be interesting to see if the bulls and bears both get what they want with prices on the move through September with volatility returning to elevated levels > 20 perhaps. Thanks for watching!!!
AMEX:SPY
by ChrisPulver
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-22 : Flat-Down PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will stay within a flat/downward type of price trend. In this video I cover Gold, Bitcoin, and the SPY. What I see is a consolidated flagging formation across many markets. As I suggested early on Monday - this week may be the week to go golfing or find something fun to do as it appears the SPY/QQQ and other are simply trading sideways (flagging). We'll see how things play out today. I would not be surprized to be saying the same thing tomorrow morning. As we close out the week, get ready for a bigger price move into late August/early-September. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BradMatheny
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update 8-21 : Markets Top & StallAs I suggested in Monday's video, the SPY Cycle Patterns predicted today's TOP more than six months ago. Tomorrow's inside/harami pattern suggests the markets will stall out the rest of this week. I urged traders to prepare to wait out this week and sit on the sidelines. When the markets stall like this, it is best to avoid trying to trade in tight ranges. Wait it out and maybe pick out a few great swing trades for next week's rally phase. This update shows you why Bitcoin, Gold, and the SPY/QQQ will continue to stall and stay in a sideways price trend. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-21 : Top Pattern Today.I expect the SPY to move into a moderate bullish price phase, attempting to peak somewhere below 561-563, then roll into a moderate downward price trend - possibly ending the day near 553-556. Why do I expect the SPY to roll to the downside after peaking today? My SPY Cycle Pattern shows a TOP pattern today. Top patterns usually start with a moderate uptrend, leading to a peak in price, followed by a moderately sustained pullback/downtrend. The 553-556 level is the nearest moderate support level. The 561-563 level is just above yesterday's high and well into the SPY upper GAP window, which will likely act as resistance. Buckle up because we are moving into at least 2~3 days of trending sideways before transitioning back into the rally phase. Gold may attempt to move above $2570 today. Bitcoin needs to find support, otherwise a breakdown in price in likely over the next 3+ days. It should be fun to see how things play out this week.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
How to measure a true range in any asset!Hello to everyone familiar with ICT concepts! If you already understand breakers, order blocks, and the principles of price premiums and discounts, you're in the right place. I’m excited to share some insights with you, using the FOREXCOM:EURUSD chart from August 20th, 2024. One challenge I've always faced is accurately measuring the true range. It often feels like price moves towards balance, finding equilibrium before moving away again. ICT's teachings on this topic can sometimes be a bit vague, especially when it comes to the details of whether to measure wicks or focus solely on candlestick bodies. However, I’ve recently made a breakthrough and discovered the key to accurately measuring a true range! This knowledge aligns with the idea of balances, but it’s crucial to understand that when one algorithm meets another, neither has the power to deviate far from the current price. But that's not what we need to focus on. What truly matters is identifying when the price is moving away from its current state. This method works exceptionally well during trending markets, like we’ve seen recently with #EURUSD, #GBPUSD, and other forex pairs. It’s also effective in commodities like Gold, indices such as #NQ, #YM, #ES, and even in the crypto markets! Take yesterday's trend in EURUSD, for example. We saw a significant 5-15 minute trend where the price perfectly retraced to its 50% level. But how did I know where to start measuring? This time, I used a breaker from a different structure on the 15-minute chart to identify the key level. The answer lies in understanding breakers, order blocks, and supporting structures. If this topic resonates with you, I’d love to hear your thoughts! Let’s dive deeper together—there’s so much more to explore. Feel free to share your insights or reach out if you’re curious about how to apply these concepts more effectively EURUSD 21.08.2024 10:11
Education
by iochkirill
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-20 Update : No Bozu YetPrice needs to make a move if we are going to see a Bozu Trending bar today. The levels I drew in the morning video were perfect (so far). We have seen the SPY do nothing most of the day and that means price is likely shifting away from trending - into Flagging. My expectations are for price to attempt to setup a high/low range over the next 2~3 trading days, then move into a consolidated/sideways flagging formation. This is a great time to prepare for the next big move (next week) and to try to plan your trades around this Flag/Base type of formation before the Vortex Rally sends the SPY higher. This video covers SPY, Gold, BTCUSD. Get some.. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BradMatheny
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-20 : BozuTrending Counter-TrendToday's Bozu Trending bar in counter-trend mode could be very exciting. Bozu trending bars are typically relatively large and represent a strong price trend. As we move closer to the upper GAP window, we may see the SPY rally through that window today—or we may see the SPY pull downward, away from that GAP, and attempt to retest support near 552. Please watch today's video because the Counter-Trend mode of the Bozu pattern suggests we may see a downward price bar today. I've highlighted two key price areas we need to watch regarding which direction the SPY will attempt to trend today. If we stay within those two price levels - price will stay muted today. Otherwise, I expect the markets to BIAS to the upside but counter-trend to the downside. It should be an interesting day for trading. Gold is RIPPING and Bitcoin appears ready for a ripper rally. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BradMatheny
Bulls Say "Can't Stop Won't Stop" - S&P 1% from All-Time HighsIt's as if the markets couldn't wait to open on Monday and continue what they've been doing for 9 of 11 trading days - push higher. S&P +.96% Nasdaq +1.31% Dow +.58% Russell 1.22% For a Monday, it was a pretty directional day. Wed-Fri is when the US news hits (FOMC Minutes, PMI, Jackson Hole, Powell Speech) so let's see if the party bus continues to rock until something forces a pause. S&P is a mere 1% off of the all-time highs. All of these comebacks are mighty impressive considering it's the bears that usually accelerate the direction - these bulls are highly motivated.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ChrisPulver
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-19 : Gap Potential (Consolidation)This short video shows you why I believe the US markets will move into a consolidation phase over the next 5-7 days. This phase will likely represent moderate volatility with a Bozu Trending bar on Tuesday (8-20). That Bozu Trending bar may be very explosive in price range. Sit back, wait for the lows to setup over the next 5+ days and position your trades for the bigger Vortex rally phase setting up in about 7+ days. If my research is correct, by 8-26 or so, we should be moving back into the Vortex Rally phase again. Gold, Bitcoin, Silver, SPY, QQQ and others will likely consolidate this week unless there is big news. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by BradMatheny
3
8.18.2024 Weekly Pre-Market Analysis S&PThis is my Weekly Pre-Market Analysis on the S&P> Right now we are going to wait for market structure to form. We saw lower highs and higher lows form on Friday after the last bullish move up. So we do not have a clear direction as to which way if may head. We have a plan for a SHORT position as well as a plan for a LONG position. We just need to watch the LOWS & HIGHS form on the 15 minute chart, before we even think of getting into a trade.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by MoneyDuck_Butch
Markets Love the Bulls!!! Close to All-Time HighsS&P pulled back 78% of the fall Nasdaq pulled back 61% of the fall Dow pulled back 78% of the fall IWM pulled back 50% of the fall Impressive rips for 2 weeks of trading for the "buy the dip" community. This week's direction was steady in futures, and gaps higher in indexes from opening to closing bell. I'm keeping the charts as clean and simple as possible. September and October are rarely good months for the markets so perhaps all-time highs are a bit of a stretch, but we're much closer now than we were August 5th when everyone was freaking out. Upcoming news for next week: FOMC Minutes US PMI Jackson Hole (with Powell Speech) My defensive plays are focused through August and September expirations, but I'll likely continue to add hedges if appropriate. Have a great weekend and back at it next week!!!
SP:SPX
by ChrisPulver
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 8-16 : Inside BreakawayThe move in the SPY today is very consistent with my Inside Breakaway SPY Cycle Pattern. Additionally, the move in Gold is exactly what I predicted would happen over two weeks ago. A dual-leg rally up to $2550. Now, we'll watch Gold rally above $2600 as this second leg appears to have considerable momentum. As we close out the week, I do suspect the SPY will attempt to create a right-shoulder for an inverted Head-n-Shoulder pattern next week. So, be prepared for the SPY to possibly consolidate and move downward a bit before attempting another rally phase. My SPY Cycle Patterns tend to agree with this changing cycle phase in the SPY - so there is some consistency related to a right-shoulder setup. Overall, this has been a tremendous week for traders. My research has continued to deliver great results for my followers and the big move in Gold has been incredible. Next week, we'll do it again. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-16 : Gold Rips - Stocks StallThis video highlights why I believe today's Inside Breakaway may come with some surprises. As Gold rips higher (check out my recent Gold videos) and the SPY really broke higher yesterday with a huge upward GAP and rally, I believe the SPY will stall a bit today and attempt to move higher near the end of the trading day today. I don't believe the markets go straight up or straight down. This big Deep-V recovery has run into resistance and I believe an inverted Head-n-Shoulders is likely to setup. You'll see what I'm talking about in today's video. What this means for SPY traders is to stay cautious today. Short - Quick trades will be the key to success. Don't get married to any bigger, longer-term swings in price today. It is all about getting in and out quickly and efficiently. Gold, on the other hand, could rally to $2620 or higher over the next 5+ trading days. Watch the US Dollar and BTCUSD as the Hedge Trade appears to be very active right now. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2
2 Weeks of Recovery - But Seasonality Lurks in Sep/OctMonday - UP Tuesday - UP Wednesday - UP Thursday - UP SPY has put together 2 weeks with 20+ points from low to high eclipsing the averaging 14/15 point average true range for the week - it really is wild stuff!!! I try to make some sense of everything today with an inverse cup & handle pattern on the SPY/SPX/ES levels. I dive into September/October seasonality and upcoming news for the US. PMI next week and Jackson Hole. More employment news and PCE before the month ends with NVDA earnings. CME Fed Watch Tool showing a 76% probability the FED will cut 25 bps September 18 and we will still see more news on employment and inflation come in before the official FOMC meeting. Actively trading, cautiously bullish, a bit surprised by how motivated this market is to recover. If there's any hesitation, it would make sense technically. I'm not interesting in calling tops/bottoms, I'm just interested in good levels to trade. Thanks for watching!!!
AMEX:SPY
by ChrisPulver
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-15 : Where's The Counter-Trend MoveIn this video, I explain how news or data-driven events can substantially obscure the SPY Cycle Pattern price trends. My SPY Cycle Patterns are predictions based on Fibonacci & Gann cycles. They attempt to predict typical market price characteristics and trends. When some outside news, data, or other event hits that changes market dynamics enough to drive price in a stronger upward or downward trend, the SPY Cycle Patterns may invalidate or get skewed behind the momentum of the "event" trend. With today's price bar, I believe the closing of the European markets (near Noon in NY) and the end of lunch in NY have a much better chance of seeing prices fall back into the counter-trend Carryover pattern I predicted for today. That means, this afternoon, we may see price roll downward and attempt to move back towards support - just like I would typically expect to see with a counter-trend Carryover pattern. Let's see what happens. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-15 : Huge Bullish Gap On DataPlease take a minute to watch this video and try to understand why this big bullish price gap is data-related. Today, the data suggests Retail and Manufacturing are still clicking right along. We are not seeing any big decline in the US economy, and that means the US Fed will not consider dropping rates as inflation levels seem to be elevated. This is also part of why I believe the US economy will "decouple" from many global economies over the next 12 to 24+ months. If you remember, I suggested a VORTEX RALLY would start near the end of July 2024. Well, guess what is happening now? The US markets are setting up a BASE for the Vortex Rally. We are not in lift-off mode yet. We still need to be cautious of any potential news event (political or otherwise) ahead of the US POTUS election. Once we approach or pass the US 2024 election, I think we'll be able to be more aggressive about continuing the Vortex Rally phase. FYI, I will be flipping to BULLISH tomorrow. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-15 : Counter-Trend CarryoverA Counter-Trend Carryover pattern is a "coasting" of price in an opposite trend direction. So, for today, I expect the price to stay somewhat within yesterday's range while trending downward. I don't expect yesterday's lows to be broken/breached - although it could happen. I believe today will be more like a pause in price before attempting another move higher. Today's pause may be very mellow in structure/size. I believe the SPY/QQQ are biased to the upside, so I expect this price pause to stay above recent support levels. Watch this video to see why I believe the recent upper range of the Gap will act as firm support for an upward price move into next week. We have to wait for the markets to return to Trending mode. 60% of trading is WAITING for the opportune setups. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
2
It's a Bull - It's a Bear - It's Time to Make Up Your Mind3 straight weeks of setting from mid-July crescendos with a crash August 2. But the "crash" was met with a vicious buying spree that now places the major index 50% of so from the large high to low swing. In this video, I breakdown the technicals and scenarios trying to make some sense of where we could be heading. We are mostly through Q2 earnings. PPI and CPI prints have been digested (market likes it mostly). We still have retail sales and unemployment claims this week and if the market reacts bearish, it's a pretty obvious sign the market is more concerned about a softer labor market and recession than it is inflation. If the markets reacts bullish and continues to grind higher, we may be looking at another incredible V bottom without the FED having to do anything - which would be a surprise :) I'm cautiously bullish and believe the market will struggle to blow through all-time highs, but it's possible we still test and sniff them out, though unlikely it will be broad. More about big money moves are cutting positions in Mag 7 so a true broadening will be a nice change of pace instead of a highly concentrated Top 10 carrying the overall market. Enjoy the video and thanks for watching!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ChrisPulver
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-14 : SPY 8 Day ForecastAt the request of one of my followers, he asked what to expect going forward into next week for his swing trading efforts. That is one of the great things about my SPY Cycle Patterns - they can assist in "what may happen" if we consider them somewhat accurate and reflect future price bar characteristics. So, to help him and others, I looked at the rest of this week and next week to highlight what I believe is the most logical outcome for the SPY for the next eight trading days. I will warn you that my expectations may not efficiently represent price range (or price target objectives). I've learned that I may expect price to move to a level or area and watch it move well beyond my expected target levels. So, be aware that price may rally or contract well beyond the levels I'm showing on this chart. What should be somewhat accurate is the SPY Cycle Pattern prediction of how price will react each day. I find these Cycle Patterns to be about 75-85% accurate as long as some outside news or crisis event drives prices in some panic trend. That said, here is an outline of what I expect to see happen over the next 8+ days on the SPY. I hope you enjoy it. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
FX:SPX500Long
by BradMatheny
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-14 : 540 Support Set For RallyPlease watch the other morning video I created before the markets opened. I suggested the SPY would move downward and try to find support between 539-540. It looks like the SPY has established a low just above 540 in early trading and I believe this low may have set the BASE PRICE for the day. Obviously, price could continue to push down into the 539 area, but, it promising on my charts that price is contracting, pulling downward a bit, in the midst of a SPY Cycle Pattern RALLY day. Now, we need to see how the RALLY is going to setup and if we are going to attempt to move above 545-546 today. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
COMEX:GC1!Long
by BradMatheny
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-14 : Today Is A RALLY DayToday is a RALLY day on my SPY Cycle Patterns. After the recent base/bottom in the SPY and the subsequent reversion to the upside - I expect today's rally to be somewhat muted in size. I'm not expecting a large range rally bar to form today - although it could happen. The reason I'm not expecting a huge rally bar today is because we've already seen a very strong upward price move - particularly yesterday's Breakaway pattern. I see the markets right now: they've already moved substantially higher (more than 61% of the recent downtrend) and are likely to stall out a bit before attempting to move higher. Price never moves in a straight upward or downward trend. There are always pauses, pullbacks, or countertrends along the broader price trend, and traders need to expect them as the broader trend plays out. Today, I'm expecting the price to attempt to melt upward but, at the same time, reflect a "pause" in the rally phase—essentially, slow down the rally phase a bit. I do believe the IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) may offer traders a great opportunity. The undervalued sectors have been weaker than the main US Indexes. The Russell may trend broadly higher today in an attempt to play "catch-up" with the other indexes. Gold may be making another big move higher - possibly starting the second leg upward. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
5