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Es!1

Morning Update: Benefit of the Doubt to BLACKI've discussed in the past about technicians and elliotitions getting married to analysis. This is easy to do even for the most experienced analysts. Just the psychology of bottoming and topping turning points Elliott mused that at turning points, traders can't let go of their attachments to the previous trend and before they realize that trend ended, the new trend is well on it's way. Price has been stubborn to retrace any of it's hard fought gains since the October bottom. Therefore I have to give my black count the benefit of the doubt. In the black count we may move as high as 4080-4090 for i of 3. Purple & Green have little room if any to rally before we retrace hard...but what is actionable trading information is in either case we should expect a retrace of some proportion. Purple and Green counts require a C wave to complete these patterns. C wave can be swift so we look to the structure to determine what count we're in. Purple can complete anywhere in the gray target box...but below 3840 which would be a flat, I have to adopt Green as my primary. Green supposes we're headed to mid 3700 to high 3600's. Now that I have given you the parameters, and I've stated I am giving the black count the benefit of the doubt...we watch to see what unfolds over the course of the next week. If we get up into the 4080-4090 area I will reopen a Jan EOM 4125-4150 short call position. If we immediately retrace (as in purple/green), I plan to do nothing until I can ascertain a bottoming pattern. I do not believe that will occur in the next couple days. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
Morning Update: YOU ARE HEREAs we trade the day to day...the micro machinations of the SPX and ES Futures, I want to put into context where we are within the overall bigger picture. Having completed our Super Cycle wave (III) and begun to retrace in our SC wave (IV) ...you can barely even see the current decline from the high of January 2022. Within this Super Cycle wave (IV), we are simply working on completing our b of larger a to come sometime latter 2023-2024. That's right, we haven't even completed a cycle A wave yet. The purple box shows our alternation with Super Cycle Wave (II) which was very deep and quick. That purple box would represent the current magnitude of the SC wave (II) juxtaposed over current prices. Our wave (IV) will alternate and be long ( 2 Decades to complete ) and shallow ( completing at the 2.382% to as low as the 2.0% Fib Support Area ). Many of you will disagree with this chart. I understand the skepticism. However, cycles being what they are, this chart stands a high probability of becoming a reality... whether we like it or not . SO, as we carve out our profits day to day....remember in the grand scheme of things.... .... WHERE YOU ARE ON THE LONG TERM CHART! Best to all, Chris
SP:SPX
by maikisch
12
Evening Update: Today I'm grateful I have Trading RulesThis morning as we were headed towards the lows I decided to close all my short call positions and go flat. Am I bullish? No Am I bearish? No. The uncertainty, with so many counts on the chart, some of which we were coming into the target box, caused me to go flat. I share this with you because as you analyze markets, I want you to trust your intuition. Most of all, when you can look as a chart and say, I'm unclear on the direction....get flat. I'm still flat as of writing this update. I mentioned in an update earlier that when price breaches 4055, we're going to 4300. I want to add 1 small caveat. The big red trendline. I want to see price breach 4055 and the red line. Let me explain, when I get into the 3 min fractals this looks like an ABC a-wave off the lows of today. I know it looks impulsive but with the price action I have now it looks like a 5, 3, 5 right into the 1.0. Therefore I'm still torn between purple and black. #PRICEPROVEIT Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
#ES_F Wednesday 01.25.23 Overview Review: Didn't have enough gas today to get to our supply area, Globex spent most of the night between 4042-430 building up supply, break of that trapped supply from yesterday and overnight above it, that was our first red flag to be cautious today as if we were to continue strong we would have held that area in Globex. Area mentioned for possible support was 4012-08 which we could see pre market that we were holding above, when opened we did failure to break the first sign that level is holding then look below and come back in was the main trade for the day which got us back to overnight supply where we found more sellers and went sideways again over VWAP selling over 4030. Great day, support provided great trades, second half of the day was the hardest today. Overview: We had an interesting open today, we closed RTH with a stop run over 4046-42 and over 5 hours of selling over Vwap. Opened and drove under that consolidation area trapping the longs making it our supply area going forward. This can be a good chance to see if we have enough supply to break todays low and get more people to sell some, under Previous Low we have our next Potential Support at 3995-89 with has T2 low and position below it, if we have enough selling we can see that area tested but overall we are inside T2 range, judging from todays action we still have shorts trying to cover so I wont be surprised if we still do a test of Monday high and area above it. We have to see what Globex does, for the upside to happen we will have to look strong below 4012-08 and 3094 if we get under them and get back over 4030-25 for final confirmation. If we get below 3994-89 and hold under it that changes things, until then we can still get good amount of short covering and a run into a supply zone, longer we hold over this area and over the trendline more customers we can have. Levels to Watch: 3995-89 // 4012-08 // 4030-25 // 4046-42 // 4061-56 Not looking to hold too much above last night unless showing good strength because its bigger supply area. If selling is strong but not strong enough to get under T2 Low and not enough buying to get over and hold 4030 Then potential for inside day between 4030-4000
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
SPX Model Trading Plans for WED. 01/25Roller Coaster Ride - Day 2 Our trading plans published yesterday, Tue. 01/24, stated: "With yesterday's daily close above 3985, our models have flipped to a bullish bias and will remain bullish while the index is above 4000. Nevertheless, models indicate a rather choppy market while the index is below 4015". As hypothesized, the market rolled over overnight and is now on the downward move. Our positional models have negated the bullish bias overnight and are currently in a neutral bias. Positional Trading Models: Our positional trading models indicate going short on the close if the daily close is below 3975 and above 3960, with a 35 point trailing stop. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for WED. 01/25: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4002, 3988, 3973, 3958, or 3937 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3984, 3968, 3955, or 3931 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate long exits on a cross below 3995, and no explicit short exits for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:46 am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #earnings #earningsseason #chinareopen
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Trade Alert: I prefer to be flatIn an abundance of caution and since I have a bottoming count in the black wave 2, I've decided to take my profits off the table. Therefore I have closed my Jan EOM 4100 Calls in which I kept over 80% of the original premium raised and my newly opened 4180 Feb EOM calls in which I kept 35% of the original premium raise for a total amount of $15,231 in premium income for January. I want to be clear....this is not to say I'm bullish. This is a risk management decision for me. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
11
Morning Update: Black wave 2 3950-3960We're retracing off of yesterday's close. Since all of my counts require a retrace it will interesting to see which ones are invalidated. I stated a couple weeks back that the bottom we strike here within the this pattern weather it's a wave 2 of c or b-wave, is a bottom to buy for a nice rally to 4300-4500. From time to time I do this so I thought it may be a time to check under the hood of the SPX. I do not track stocks so I have no long-term EW counts in place....so the below charts are very rudimentary. Looking at Microsoft, I could debate Microsoft the stock has a 5-wave move up off the low, and a 3-wave move down for a wave 2. This is what you want to see in a bottom. However, price last night hit the .764 retracement post earnings, and but until breach the wave 1 high of approximately $263 we simple have no conclusive clue that the bottom in November of $213 is the bottom. Additionally, breaching the 263 high is just a first clue. So, MSFT has a lot of work to do. I would say the jury is out on MSFT striking a bottom. Looking at Amazon, Unlike MSFT, Amazon has positive divergence into its last low, but the stock has not completed 5-up off the bottom. Unlike MSFT that has a full 1-2 in place. Maybe AMZN will pop after its earnings, but it still doesn’t explain why it’s so far behind in the pattern visive MSFT. MSFT and AMZN are the largest components of the SPX, but these 2 stocks do not do the entirety of the SPX justice. Nonetheless, in looking at the largest 8% of the SPX components...if I was to sum up the SPX/ES charts...it’s only slightly negative. Yes, there are some constructive aspects of the above patterns...but nothing conclusive. Does it signal a constructive rally of some magnitude...You’ll get no argue from me on that conclusion. If we retrace into the 3950-3960 area today, it's important to note that the next time price breach 4055...we're headed to 4300. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
3
Evening Update: Markets Stay within a Range TodayNot much to say this evening as we got no clues today. The markets stayed in a range, with no breakouts or breakdowns. The more consolidating we do, the odds start to skew towards the black count unless we get going to the downside soon. Black and purple suggest any declines will be contained above 3900. The green count, which is what the cash market is signaling, supposes we're about to decline into the 3700's. First and foremost we need to breach today's low of 4005. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
8
#ES_F Overview for 1.24.23 Review: Short covering continued today, during Globex we held above 3976-71 Support, consolidated under VWAP before then open and once we took the open out off we went, we flushed most of the supply out of this area last Wednesday so this move over 4030 was much easier without much consolidation needed on the way up. We saw our first decent correction and need to consolidate to go higher at 4046-42 which was first resistance target. We were able to take it out and hit next level at 4061-56 where we found more supply which gave a nice correction to VWAP, the higher it gets the more supply there will be so have to be careful at these areas as we might have found our range for distribution. Overview: We have possibly found our distribution range between 4077-4030, have to see how we hold Globex but there is a good possibility to see a test of today's high at some point, will it hold or not is for us to find out. Ideally we hold 4030-25 support but very likely we could see some sort of flush under it before, as long as we hold over 4012-08 the upside has a chance of playing out. If we take a dip under 4030-25 and can consolidate under without breaking it will be a good information, unless we make some move over it tonight. Levels to Watch: 4012-08 // 4030-25 // 4046-42 // 4061-56 // 84-77
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
4
Morning Update: You’ve Got My Attention If you’ve traded the ES and the indices as a whole for any length of time you’ve heard the phrases “ The Markets is Climbing a Wall of Worry ”, or “ The Most Hated Rally ”. This signifies traders are not positioned to take advantage of a rally. Clearly sentiment was more negative than the market had intentions. I have been on the side of expecting lower prices. I’m a huge fan of the rally but only after prices retreated into the 3800’s first . However, I do not want to be a hater of a rally that leaves me behind, or worst, catches me short. Therefore, I wanted to provide my playbook as to not be caught off guard. All of my counts require some downside retrace of small to large magnitude. If price decides to trade above yesterday’s high...I may close all short calls. My January calls are almost worthless, but the position I opened yesterday will cause me concern because that doesn’t expire till end of February. In the cash market, this looks much cleaner. I would expect price to get a deep retrace or reconcile as an ABC zig zag down in the 3700’s. The ES always runs the risk of containing noise due to the lower liquidity of the overnights. Sometimes it will give you signals as to how the cash market will react, sometimes it confuses. I’m undecided as to whether it’s confusing noise, or it’s signaling to me the market intends to go higher and not retrace like my analysis shows. If ES trades above yesterday’s high. I may close out all short call positions. We have already extended to the 3.618% Fib Area...and I’m not going to give upside price advances much room before I pull the plug on shorting. Keep in mind, these are not outright short positions in the ES. If you’re outright short the ES right now, you’re giving yourself NO ROOM FOR ERROR. Therefore, have stops in place. I’ll be frank...if the market continues to move higher from here...I’ll hate the rally. Yes, I’ll be one of those traders. But will I allow it to cause losses....NOT ON YOUR LIFE. Suffice to say, the bulls have my attention now. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
11
#ES_F Overview for Monday 1.23.23 Review: Last week Thursday we got back to our possible support area under 3930 and we could see the short covering stabilize the price before RTH at 3915-10 area which was important going forward, during RTH we failed to continue lower and only did a look below Globex low and came back in without reaching next level and taking out the low from 1.10 signaling that sellers are running out. Friday Globex we consolidated more getting all the supply secured, RTH open gave us a flush under VWAP to get the last sellers out and once we got over 30 again shorts were trapped and we began mark up back to our Supply area which is over 3990. Overview: That flush Wednesday took out a lot sellers from this area so now we might be able to get through it easier and head for our next Resistance area. As we know the goal is to sell product higher to willing buyers and we need to create some demand, ideally we can hold over this 76-71 area or at least over 60 as we now have support below those areas and see a move higher to take out last weeks high which will bring in more demand to the store. I will be looking to see if we get any pull back tonight towards 76-71 area and if it holds or not, the way we high closed Friday we might not get much of a pull back and instead take out 94-89 area first and head for 4000 pocket, if that happens then any pull back to and under 94-89 could be a good opportunity to buy and eventually if we hold over this area and get through that 4000 pocket we can see a push higher into next resistance area to 4046-61 maybe little over it depending how much buying we get. Levels to Watch: 3976-71 // 3995-89 // 4012-08 // 4030-25 // 4046-42 // 4061-56 For better confirmation we can wait until 4012-08 gets taken/hold either in Globex or RTH tomorrow, if in Globex then we might see a re-test in RTH but either way if we get over this area we could see our move to 4030-25 // 4046-42 and if that is that 61-56. Trading it level to level is a safer bet since we would be in supply area and never know what can happen but ideally everything holds up nicely and we get the full move. IF we don't hold 76-71 first red flag, breaking under 60 big red flag and will need to wait because if that happens then trip lower could happen but being up here I would think that they will try to run the highs to bring in more buyers to sell product into.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
4
SPY New High - likely headed higher.Are you following my research yet? Check out my SPY Cycle Patterns and decide for yourself if my predictions are accurate: SPY Cycle Patterns for this week: 1/15/2023 GAP Potential 1/16/2023 GAP-Reversal 1/17/2023 Breakdown201 1/18/2023 POP 1/19/2023 1/20/2023 BaseRally301 1/21/2023 Break-Away 1/22/2023 Rally-111 1/23/2023 Carryover 1/24/2023 Inside-Breakaway 1/25/2023 Harami-Inside 1/26/2023 CRUSH 1/27/2023 Rev-Rally Now, using traditional Fibonacci price modeling, we can see the recent support level held and a New High was reached. This indicates the SPY will likely attempt a bit of consolidation/rotation over the next 4+ days, but will likely rally even higher in early Feb. Follow my research. It's simple and easy to follow.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
Evening Update: Things got complicated todayIf I had a $100 dollars every time I mentioned here on trading view that I spend 90% of my time analyzing and 10% of my trading I'd have a nice chuck of change. But markets are NOT linear, and that's why when I trade, I try to give myself the best opportunity for a profit. Let's discuss the (ES) chart first, then I want to juxtapose my analysis on the cash market (SPX). See Below Micro chart of the (ES). With price breaching the 4017 level, this rally off 3901.75 appearing impulsive in nature has surpassed the 2.618% Fib Level (Blue arrow and Circle). The 2.618% is usually good to halt most impulsive structures, even the ones that extend. However we blew right through that and even went over the previous local high of 4035. That presents us with several scenarios now. I must confess I'm split equally on each potential and therefore I do not have a primary pathway as of my writing this update. Black Count The black count supposes we bottomed in minor (b of larger "b") at 3901.75 last week. Under the black count we are now starting to carve out our initial subdivisions of our c-wave higher into the 4300-4530 area. To confirm black is the highest probability outcome and my primary pathway, price has to retrace in a wave 2 of c and should hold 3976-3934. Upon retracing to this area, I need to see an explosive rally that first breaches 4180 and ultimately goes to 4300-4530 area. Purple Count For the purple count to be a b-wave flat we need to see retrace but must hold 3841, (ideally 3912-3841) worst case scenario. Anything below 3841 and the newly added green count becomes the most viable option. Corrective Flats are not rare, but they are a pattern you don't certainly see that often. If price holds those regions, I would expect to see in the same manner as Black to the same area of the 4300-4530 region. Green Count The green count supposes our B wave has not concluded at all. I have stated for weeks that the overlapping manner of this pattern off the 4180 spike and reversal on December 13th was not a pattern in jeopardy of blasting off to the upside or the start of a new bullish trend. I still believe that. From a trader sentiment standpoint there's just too much indecision within that pattern to be a new bull run. Therefore Green is confirmed if price gets below 3841 (where both black and purple become invalidated or low probability). The green count reconciles low 3700 area for a standard "abc zig zag pattern". The SPX still looks like an ABC down to much further levels. That is why I believe the market is very confused as to what it wants to do (when I compare the ES to the Cash Market). I would assume in the days to come it's intentions will be known. Today I shorted -10 Feb EOM 4180 calls at $23 for $11,471 in Premium. Those calls went as high as $32 which gave me a 39.13% trade drawdown. This is not the area I feel like most my trades go. Short OTM calls at the 2.618% fib extension level is a "top tick" 9.9 out of 10 times. I'm still in this trade and will hold on for a retrace in either of the counts above and re-evaluate my position then. If anyone has any questions or comments please leave them below and I'll answer them all. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
7
Morning Update: Price in Target Box for Black "b"As I posted in my weekend update that price should spend early this week catching a bid and I expect pressure as the week progresses. There is the offshoot chance that this low of last week at 3901.75 was our larger b-wave bottom as outlined in purple on the above chart so be aware of this possibility. Purple is always my alternative count. In the primary Black count I am expecting price to eventually give way to lower prices into the mid 3800's. This current surge in prices that started on Friday has Fibonacci resistance up at 4017. That's not to say price will get there in the black count...but don't be surprised if it does. In the purple count, if price were to breach 4035, it certainly bolsters continuation upon a consolidation/retracement. As of right now I am in no rush to short this market...I am still in favor of observing the price action as I evaluate my trade strategy this week. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
2
Weekend Update: Slightly Higher Early Next Week, then Down?With price on Friday breaching 3969 which was the point where the purple count would become my primary over the Black count. The above chart features the old purple count as primary now. As you may remember under the purple count chances are much lower that price will make it down to the sub 3788 level. We needed to see an impulsive 5-wave pattern that could reach those levels given how we started and this doesn't appear to be the case. There's a purple "b" on the above chart. Although an alternative, our b could have bottomed. We have a 3-wave move down but only above 4035 does this become reasonable. I believe we will edge up early next week towards 3992 to as high as 4018 and start lower. This move lower should take us to the mid 3800 area. If price follows that path this is an area I hope to go long in size. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
6
ES week of 1/23Long on pullbacks/failed breakdowns to support levels as long as above 3923. 3900-3923 is kinda messy chop, below that long way down. Thinking gap to 3997.5 area Monday and pullback to 3972 then rally. Pullback to 3945-3960 area also possible. Will be looking to fade the open if we get a gap to/slightly below that 3997.5 area to 3985, 3972, 3960, 3951, 3945. Will be watching for failed breakdowns/successful backtests of these levels to long. Ultimately BTD above 3923, STR below 3900. 4021 PT on longs but I will not be swinging anything, day trades only.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by highvibetrades
Long S&P500S&P500 tapped its major uptrend supports last week and is holding above them. Great time to go long. It's quite unlikely to go much lower. Targets are around 4500 if/when the first major downtrend breaks (likely given the amount of short positions needing to cover). After that there is one last significant resistance above the last all time high around 4800. If that breaks, the S&P500 is poised for another mid 1990's or mid 1950's bull market that will eventually lead to the type of bear market everyone is predicting now (I wouldn't start looking for a 50% crash until around 2030). EUR/USD hit major support and is likely headed much higher. This means the dollar index is likely done rising. With the dollar falling, assets are likely to become less correlated and stocks can get back on their uptrend. Good luck out there!
SP:SPXLong
by bwy
3
Evening Update (Early): To "b" or not to "B" I'll make this clear, concise and quick. PURPLE If we retrace to at or above 3969....Purple is confirmed. 3969 would be the 50% retracement of wave 3. Now the impulsive count would not be invalidated but probability wise this is not a wave 4. This would be an ABC. The Purple count will not get to and below 3788. BLACK If price gets to approximately 3930-3945 and then retreats again to take out 3901.75 and goes to the area of 3880-3885 and begins to retrace higher over the course of the next day or so...this would be a clean 5-down and 3 up for a 1-2 down. This would point us to the mid to low 3700 minimum. In an abundance of caution I closed my short put position for about 80% of the premium. For accountability purposes, I posted that in the comments section of my morning update. I will be off the desk tomorrow unless the "DoDo hits the fan" (which I do not anticipate)....I'll post again in my weekend update. I'll still answer DM's and Comments. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
31
Morning Update: What's Next?I would anticipate our retrace up start today. This retrace will either be a minor wave 4 or a b-wave. If we get above 3972 then it's likely this is a b wave retracement and not a 4th wave in an impulsive wave 1 of c. Incidentally we're now in the target box for purple b. Micro chart below: I think we're extending in wave 3 still. So I anticipate a wave 4 retrace and OML if we are to remain impulsive....or we retrace in a b wave higher without a wave 4 consolidation as per the micro chart above. We have the .50% Fib Retracement Support at 3912...as well as the .618% at 3882.75. I expect a reaction off of one those if we get down that far today. Nonetheless, the most important thing I am watching today is the structure of this wave down, and the anticipated retrace. This will tell me if we're eventually going to sub 3788 or not. Best to all, Chris For those who are interested: I want to take a brief moment to explain the trade I did last night as I have gotten many DM's inquiring about it. This post is not the place to give a lesson in futures options. I hope to do that in the future as futures options are my main source of profit. When you trade an option, a contract between the buyer and seller is already organized within the option. I NEVER BUY OPTIONS...NEVER-EVER. I only sell. I do so, because I believe sellers have the statistical edge over buyers by an insurmountable percentage. Last night I sold 25 put contracts at the 3880 strike for $4.35 each. In doing do so, the buyer deposited in my account $5367. The trader who bought those options from me obviously thinks the ES will be below 3880 before those contracts expire which is tomorrow at 5pm EST. SO I'm selling a specific price, and at a specific time. Hypothetically, the ES could go to 3879 today but if it's above 3880 at precisely 5pm EST the buyer loses his entire investment to me. I sold those options last night when the ES was at 3939. Since last night the ES has gone against me by 20 points. But because time is ticking those options are only worth $3.50. So if I bought them back from him now I would pay $4,445.50. I would keep $921.50. Those options above 3880 have NO INSTRINSC VALUE. The buyer is gambling in my casino, and I am the house. Now, if the ES goes below 3880 between now and Friday at 5pm EST, these could become very expensive for me to buy back and therefore could lose a lot of money very quickly.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
14