$ES maybe exhausted here. hung on daily POC here.would like to see retest of 85,00s tbh but would be > happy w/a close under 72,50. when in doubt, zoooooom out!
Es!1
ES - Basic downtrendStocks will go down because they are in a downtrend. This is not hard to understand.
Evening Update: Did we top today?As an observer I would use word to describe the market over the last 2 weeks...Undecided. Much of what I track is coming into topping regions. It only stands to reason that the market will let loose soon and confirm my suspicions of lower before higher.
From an Elliott Wave perspective I want to point out 2 patterns that should give those in the immediate bullish camp pause. These overlapping patterns (highlighted in green) can explained in traditional terms as sector rotation, but to an Elliotition, nothing is going to launch off of a pattern that looks like that.
I would say today was boring...but when you're a seller of premium (like me)...today was somewhat of a payday. Let me explain briefly:
I first opened a tranche of short 4100 Jan EOM calls when the ES was 3970. This was the area of the .618 retracement level of the most recent decline from 4180 to 3788. The market has moved against me since selling my first tranche. I sold a second tranche today at 4035 and received less premium.
#BORINGEQUALSMONEY!!!!
#LOWSTRESSTRADING
I sure love selling something that I never owned, that even when I'm wrong, I still win.
Best to all,
Chris
Trade Alert: Added -5 additional ES Jan EOM 4100 contractsI added 5 additional contracts at $19.75 for an additional $4923.40 in premium income for a total of $10,034.30 in income having used 130,000 in buying power against an allocated $325,000 in buying power for this trade (25 Contracts).
Break Even is at 4110 on the ES. Below 4100 end of month and I keep the income.
Best to all,
Chris
Morning Update: Encountering a Local Top Soon?Whether we have topped or about to top in our minor b of B, we should be anticipating an initial move below 3950 to give us our first clue, we may be headed to the 3761-3634 area. This next move down should find support in my anticipated target box. However I am expecting this move down in c of B to be an impulsive 5-wave structure.
Depending how we trade today I may add to my -5 Jan EOM 4100 ES Short Call Position. I'll add If we meander up in a very overlapping manner towards the 4030-4048 area. If we impulsively jump into that area, or decline and breach 3950 I will not add.
Best to all,
Chris
ES/SPX Short/Put entry Weekly Chart shown and Daily Fed Net liquidity indicator applied. This indicator shows fed inflow/outflow money’s based on their Quantitative tightening and easing (denoted by the green line). As you can see by looking at the circles drawn in, when Net liquidity becomes meaningfully extended above the price action, price eventually makes its way there, and the same goes with when the NL under-extends. Currently SPX is $4009 and its fair value (denoted by the Net liquidity indicator) is $3790 as of 1/16/23.
We are clearly down trending as we keep rejecting off the trend line. The play here looks to be an entry around $4050-4100 near the upper region of the trend line and a short all the way down to $3790. This is interesting as it would likely ripple over to $BTC and cause it to also decline.
Looking for this to play out around the end of February or early March.
01/16 Weekly Plan. ES Futures March01/16 Weekly Plan. ES Futures March
Weekly Pivot is 3,990
Targets
1. 4,021
2. 4,070
3. 4,110 .
Targets
1. 3,929
2. 3,890
3. 3,860 .
Now trading at 4,016 near Weekly TP1 - Upside
You will receive alerts in this channel every time ES hits (2M candle close):
1. Weekly opening 4,020
2. Weekly pivot at 3,990
3. Each weekly target.
Side notes:
1. Weekly chart is currently OTFU ends if we break below 3,897 in RTH. Old balance is H3929.75, HB3858, L3788.
2. One time framing up in daily chart ends if 3,865.75 breaks during RTH.
3. When trading of weekly levels, each level will act as support and resistance, “no trade zones” do not apply to weekly plan.
4. We have an open gap zone from 1/10. H3,948, L3,942
Have a great week and trade safe. @everyone
SPY Swing Long on ReversalSPY dropped to a mid Fib level from the recent pivot high and bounced.
Price is now rising in a channel predictive for a 1% rise tomorrow.
The ADX indicator shows the negative direction reversed and now positive
and rising out of the chop zone confirms the reversal as a solid one not
a fake out as does the MACD with a crossover under the histogram
I will trade this with strike 392 calls for expiration this Friday expectant
for 25+% return in two days
Weekend Update: 4048 Next Week, then Down?We spent the last couple days, in my opinion, putting the final touches of this short term bullish celebration. Based on my primary black count we should be entering the dialed in target box for this b of B short term top. After which I have no reason (at this time) to believe we will NOT visit and breach 3788 in the coming weeks.
Not much else to share, as of right now, there's a small chance we bounce around in the purple before ultimately coming into the same target box location...however, the negative divergences building are signaling there's not a lot left in the upside for the short term.
First clue we may be on our way to visiting 3788 is a breach of 3886. I want to be clear I have a small short position for EOM Jan 4100 strike calls. I may add to that next week. However this move down I am expecting is a move to buy, buy, buy. Hence the reason why my short calls expire end of month. My goal is to place a short 3600 put position in the coming weeks in size with the April expiration date.
Have a great weekend.
Best to all,
Chris
ES reversal? Map #1 going forwardIf we completed the B wave up, a C wave down should commence starting today. C waves are notorious for their characteristic buying or selling pressure, panic or fomo at it's peak. A good example was the covid sell off in Feb - March 2020.
This is only one possibility. I'll post more as time goes by and see see how price looks.
Either way I believe we will have a sell off for Friday the 13th and into earnings. If they do rally and get over the 200ma today or next week it would be more bullish. As of now they stopped at the 200ma/upper BB and it should not be revisited anytime soon if the bearish case plays out.
ES Looking For Support Near 3920 - Then LIFTOFFPay attention. Today will likely be a large range bar - possibly with a deep low near 3920.
My SPY cycle patterns call today a "Major CRUSH". That means we could see a very large price range today.
Combined with other SPY Cycle patterns, I believe the ES will attempt to establish a base/bottom - retesting recent lows.
As we move into 2023, be aware that cycle trends have shifted. We are entering a Wave-5 bullish price trend.
This Wave-5 trend may not result in new all-time highs this year, but we should see a solid recovery/reversion back to the upside.
There are still risks related to the global banking/credit system, so stay cautious of crisis events.
Follow my research. Pay attention to the clear market data - not the perma-bears that continue to tell you a "major crash" is about to happen.
After today, we move into more bullish consolidation as Earnings start to hit.
Morning Update: If you're an algorithm, don't read thisBefore I get into my morning market update I would like to address something briefly. I recently did a post called "Has Bitcoin & Ethereum Bottomed?" . There were many comments arguing for or against a bottom being in place based on either the Global Economy, The US Dollar, Inflation...etc.
I bring this up mainly for new traders. Here's some questions I want to pose to you.
1. In the history of trading how many economists are known for being legendary traders ?
2. If the US GDP is forecasted to expand by 3-4% this year why is the stock market not higher than last year?
3. Since the dawn of time traders have been told that GOLD is a hedge against inflation so why is gold at $1906 today, which is lower than $1923 where it traded in October of 2011 some 12 years ago when inflation was 2%...not 6%?
I could go on and on and literally bore you to death with questions that would boggle your mind...all to make one point. In the grand scheme of trading...none of this matters.
Trader sentiment does....that's it. Sentiment is comprised on your perspectives, viewpoints and personal opinions about a security. Put all those traders perspectives, viewpoints and opinions in a pot...stir it up and what do you get?
A CHART.
Make no mistake, if you're negative on the US Economy and your trading that viewpoint, but the chart is going higher.....YOU'RE LOSING. If you're losing, then the economy doesn't matter. Where Gold is or the Dollar Index doesn't matter....you're now in a fearful mode. Fear and Greed rule trader decisions in the markets. Most traders will NOT be successful because despite access to the best analysis people find it difficult to master one's own emotions . Hence algorithms. Algorithms do not care about the US Dollar. They're impervious to the ravages of inflation, and they have NO EMOTION . The crowd behavior that is encapsulated in a chart....IS ALL YOU NEED TO TRADE IT SUCCESSFULLY.
Now, based on the above ES futures chart I believe we have one more high to complete before we can consider this pattern complete. I say that because the A=C point is at 4048. If price does manage to get to that inflection point today I plan to add to my small ES 4100 Jan Call short position.
Best to all,
Chris
ES1! Supply and Demand Key LevelsES1! 65m Acute key supply and demand levels post CPI. Broad markets gap down going into EOW and re-establishing auction at lower structure. KLs: 3978.00, 3973.25, 3963.50, 3952.50. Neutral to risk off bias is invalidated > 4021.75// Price at time: 3967.25
Evening Update: Today was rather uneventfulIt appears I over estimated the initial spike and the close was not close enough to flat....overall I would say I missed on the details, but I hope you can gather reading the charts prior to news one can get a sense (regardless of the content of the news or event) the outcomes can be predetermined.
Really the main thing I want to point out tonight is the negative divergences that has maintained ever since our initial move up last Friday. This tells me this move is slowing in strength and therefore coming to an end. I was in no hurry to open any additional trades today because I still do not have anything decisive to trade against. Even though price has moved against me since I sold my 5 ES 4100 Jan EOM contracts...I'm up almost 20% strictly due to time deterioration.
It appears tonight I'll go over 2,000 followers. I thank you all who place some small measure of trust in me. I've learned a lot in the last year...and hopefully I have managed to provide value to your trading.
Let's see if this choppy mess comes to in end tomorrow.
Best to all,
Chris
SPY Fibonacci & TA. Bullish Target Above $410.For everyone interested:
Expect volatility to be king over the next few weeks (earnings and economic data).
SPY reaching a major APEX in price trend. It is very likely to resolve to the upside, but that means we have to be prepared for "false breakouts".
Fibonacci price trends suggest current trend is BULLISH (closing GAPS). The upper GAP may be the next target on a strong rally phase.
Don't play around with this trend. If you are SHORT - PROTECT YOUR CAPITAL.
Economic data continues to suggest the US markets will resolve to the upside if inflation trends continue to weaken.
Follow my research & videos.
I've been trying to warn you about the start of a Wave-5 rally for more than 5+ months.
Morning Update: Will I be HERO or GOAT?I have no idea where the phrase from "Hero to GOAT" came from. But I know it means...
"that by his actions a person has in short order shifted from success to failure, with a concomitant move from praise to blame".
Now I used the Google Machine to post that definition so some of you won't confuse GOAT with a Tom Brady reference...."Greatest of all Time".
GOAT is this sense is a negative connotation. Also, forgive the use of Hero...its just a saying:)You get my meaning...lol.
I've been posting on Trading View now for a year. In that timeframe I have posted almost 600 times about various securities I track. I try to provide my followers and new readers with detailed analysis and context. I am NO HERO...nor do I consider myself a GOAT of any sort. But I do consider myself a student of patterns, trader sentiment, and ultimately Elliott Wave Analysis.
On 4 previous occasions I have done these posts I loosely refer to as "thought experiments". These posts are where I detail what will happen in the markets the next day. Usually these posts will revolve around some sort of news or event that may invoke volatility. The entire point of the thought experiments were never to brag. They certainly were not to say I have a higher intellect or the fact that I practice magic, or levitate...lol. They were designed to be thought provoking. Does news or events move price, or are they simply catalysts that fulfill on a pattern that has been in the making prior to the announcement of news or events. I'm in the camp that news or events do not matter. I believe when you consider all the participants in a large market like the SP500, the range of knowledge across the vast amount of participants dictate that good, bad or indifferent news leaks, is known prior, is anticipated or forecasted. These traders show us how prices will react in advance with the patterns of buys and sells on a chart. But I acknowledge is almost an impossible debate to win. Most people see the aftermath of news or events and how price reacts instantaneously and deem it to be cause and affect. It's hard to argue against that when the visual picture countering that argument is so stark. Hence the reason why I put myself out there. This is a topic for traders to continue to debate. Its a valid topic and therefore I expose myself to comments of ridicule if these thought experiments of mine, that I share with you, blow up in my face . I'll let my followers be the final arbiter on whether I am right or wrong...but suffice to say, I'm sure my older followers would agree I'm 4 for 4 so far.
#5: My thought experiment for todays trading day
I shared the jest of my thought process last night but I can dial it in a little more this morning. As of right now, price is in my target box. Once the CPI report is announced I believe price will spike in the ES. Now...don't freak out ...Price should not spike higher than 4097. That 100 points away from where we are as of the posting of my morning update. 4097 would represent an outlier. I do not place a high probability on that, but these spikes rarely are based on anything else but emotion. Nonetheless, price should not breach 4097. But I would more so expect price to spike to the 4030 to 4050 area. Price will should be around the 4010-4030 when the cash market opens at 930am. Price will stay elevated during the first hour of cash market trading. Price will spend the rest of the day moving down and we stand a decent chance of closing red on the day or in the area of flat.
My trade plan for today is to add to a small short ES call position I initiated yesterday afternoon. Ultimately I am looking for price to return to the area of a breach of 3788 in the coming days or weeks...hence my short call trade thesis. I'll update todays price action this evening...and I'll be mentally prepared (with bourbon) to take my medicine in the comments section.
Let's see what opportunities today brings us.
Best to all,
Chris
SPX Primed For A Powerful Wave 3 Decline - UpdateWith an impulse up formed at close from yesterday's 3877 low, the 3970 high marks the completion of W2 to set up for the bearish W3 breakdown out of this consolidation period.
W3 should begin by retracing the majority of the recent rally targeting 3843-3808, for w1 of W3.
Ultimately, there is a high probability target range for the W3 decline, which includes the 78.6% retracement from the October 13 low and 90-100% extensions of W1. Those are 3667-3635-3622.
A fourth wave rally will follow after W3 is complete to be followed by a fifth to complete (W1).
Evening Update: ES to Spike Higher tomorrow into Target BoxJudging by how we traded all day today I can't say we're done to the upside . I can only assume tomorrow's CPI catalyst will cause prices to spike into the target box. Upon experiencing that spike tomorrow I will soon add to my newly initiated short call position.
I believe this spike will last so that the cash market can open at 930am EST .
Upon the cash market opening I expect prices to retreat within an hour of opening and continue down the remainder of the day. It is possible we close red tomorrow.
* That TE was free of charge:) lol
Best to all,
Chris
Trade Alert: Short 5 January EOM 4100I may be proven wrong but I just cannot see getting above my target box without breaching 3788.00 first. I am now short -5 Jan 4100 calls at 20.50 for $5,110.90 in Premium. This is my either going to turn into a short term hedge or an opening salvo to reach a potential -25 contracts.
Best to all,
Chris
Morning Update: To break-out or break-down that is the questionLast night I decided to look at this chart as if I was seeing it for this time. Its funny, but the first impression I got was this is NOT a chart that price is going to run away with bullishly. Many of you have heard me say that with respect to this long drawn out consolidation since the 22nd of December. Problem is we have meandered up the whole time.
But this is not new. Ever since we bottomed in October at 3502, we haven't had a decent impulsive wave in the ES. Almost every rally eventually overlapped. We have been in a choppy market ever since. I hope to gain some clarity shortly.
On the micro chart above, we have topped in Black "b" or with one more poke into the target box we will top. If we come up short of the target box we still have 1-2 pointing down in the black count. In the purple count we should head lower for our wave 2 of C that is ultimately headed to the 4300 area. So you understand there are many potential outcomes to consider...but in the very short term it appears both counts point lower. If we get a push up to the 3985 to 4000 area, I may take an outright short and close towards the wave 2 target box in purple. If I do this trade I will post a "trade alert".
Lets see what clues, or lack of, we get today.
Best to all,
Chris
How the ES has reacted to EIA Petroleum Status ReportsEIA Petroleum Status Reports are considered high-impact news, yet how much do they impact ES futures?
In the 30 minutes after it gets reported at 10:30am ET, here's how ES has reacted the last 5 times:
Jan 4: 14.75-point range, closing up 0.21% after 30 minutes
Dec 28: 11.5-point range, closing up 0.25% after 30 minutes
Dec 21: 12-point range, closing up 0.12% after 30 minutes
Dec 14: 8.75-point range, closing up 0.20% after 30 minutes
Dec 7: 13.75-point range, closing up 0.09% after 30 minutes
Plenty of range there to make money... and plenty of range to get whipsawed out for a loss. so be careful.
Unless you have a specific strategy to trade the EIA Petroleum Status Report news, or you're in for a longer hold, consider sitting it out.
ES EMA Crossing. 4060-4100 Target following CPI20ema crossing 50ema on daily, past two times we've seen a ~6% increase & ~4% increase respectively in the leading days.
20ema is currently crossing 50ema. Should rally with solid CPI on Thursday. 4060-4100 target.
ES quick updateI will leave an SPX update for the other site. But here is a sneak-peak of what I expect going into the CPI release on Thursday and next week
Enjoy, and don't get trapped in case we really spike up on CPI numbers on Thursday and crap from there.
And don't blame anyone if you are short and get stopped on CPI release or try to chase the market and go long on Thursday am; you have been warned here.
