SPY/SPX analysis and what you can expect(I think)I am a firm believe price is heading to the upside but it is up to you and your ideas in the end. It's just what I think, with lots of liquidity resting above the market will pull to the upside.
Es!1
Careful being long the market here. Dual Fibo Resistance!Dual Fibo resistance not only from top to down on the NQ futures but also on a bigger time frame from ATH and COVID lows. Perfect exit/Entry. CME_MINI:NQ1!
Weekly Plan Update03/20Weekly Plan. ES Futures June
Weekly Pivot is 3,950 .
Targets
1. 3,988
2. 4,038
3. 4,090
4. 4,140
Targets
1. 3,898
2. 3,840
3. 3,794
4. 3,696
Now trading at 3,975
Alerts
You will receive alerts in this channel every time ES hits (2M candle close):
1. Weekly opening 3,963.75
2. Weekly pivot at 3,950
3. Each weekly target.
Side notes:
1. OTFU in daily timeframe, ends at 3932.5.
2. OTFD in weekly timeframe; ends at 3999.
3. Balance in monthly timeframe. H4208, L3814, HB4020.
4. When trading off weekly levels, each level will act as support and resistance, “no trade zones” do not apply to weekly plan.
Have a great week and trade safe. @everyone
3/20 Monday Spy (C&H on the hour) We made a bullish cup and handle pattern on the hour today. Heading back up trading still in our channel of 389-400. Guessing we do puts tomorrow as we go down the channel.
#ES_F Idea for today? Lets see if this can get going we take out VWAP. Came in late today after two days off, watching this to play out IF we can get under 3976-71 and take out 57-53
SPY Temporary Upside before the Drop.Crazy how the PA accurately lines up with my previous TA's.
You can see $SPY retesting the TL resistance so I expect some short-term bullishness, and ideally it'll chop upwards as $VIX cools down too.
Remember things can shift and there is LARGER downside potential.
Weekly Update: Will Targets Get Hit?Since I started posting on TradingView.com once per week, I have been warning my readers of softness into the 3800 -3720 area target box. Today, I have no reason to believe otherwise. Really, my only question is when, and then what happens next?
I have a purple pathway down to the low 3000’s and as of now that remains an alternative. With the loss of positive divergences on the hourly I do believe eventually we get into my target box. From there I look to constructive patterns developing.
So far nothing has changed…how we get there is up for discussion.
Best to all,
Chris
#ES_F 3.15.23 Day Trading Prep Tuesday 3.14.23 Review : We were looking for possible lower continuation but market had other plans, as we noted IF 3892-87 holds and we can get over 3932-27 we can see a push into upper Supply area, I didnt see it pushing that much in but what we did is we took it, held over it and then rejected from next Key area which was even better. If long to supply was missed there was a nice trade from 3976-71 -57-53 back towards the value at 3932-27 which we broke into but got short covering end of day back into Resistance.
Wednesday 3.15.23 Prep : Globex opened in the 3957-44 Supply area, we pushed above sold into the stop run and dropped the bid. Once we broke 3944-40 and broke inside 3931-3892 we went straight to the bottom which is telling us not that much support there, all of our buyers are under 3870. We now have short covering here at the bottom of Daily Support, things are looking like we could at least continue towards our 3866-47 target and possibly a break below? We are under Previous Day Range but inside T2 range, IF we fail to get back inside Previous Days range and hold under 3892-87 that might give us the move lower and if we can break 3853-47 T2 low and 3839-35 would be our targets, if selling is strong we can continue lower our next Daily Support is 3809-3787 we can see buyers around there or before. IF we end up holding 3878-74 // 3866-63 we could see a move back over 3892-87 where we can target Previous Day low and then watch if we accept back in it to continue higher towards Supply but for now Supply is above us and buyers are under 3870-50-30
Levels to Watch
Resistance : Key Daily 3957-53 Key Intraday 3915-10 // 3932-27 // 3944-40 Current 3901-3898 3892-87?
Support : Key Daily 3866-3847 Next Daily 3809-3787 Key Intraday 3878-74 // 3853-47 // 3839-35 // 3809-05
#ES_F 3.14.23 Day Trading Prep Monday 3.13.23 Review : We got a break of structure and 3892-87 level before RTH and got the flush to one of our possible Support targets at 3866-47, RTH order flow came in and and pushed us back in balance above, over all a great day we tagged Support target and hit Key Intraday Resistance at 3932-27 which gave another good short for the day back towards 3892-87.
Tuesday 3.14.23 Prep : We are currently Inside T2 Range, inside Previous Day Range and right around our Daily Support of 3915-3890 which we already broke multiple times. Currently our balance is 3932-3890 and we are waiting to see if we will make a move out today and continue lower or reverse/stay in balance? T2 and Previous Day buyers might have been just short covering and not real buying which means if more supply comes in today the lower levels wont hold... We are watching 3892-87 as our Key Support for continuation lower if we break and hold under we can see a move down towards our lower Support and Previous Day Low, IF that breaks (3853-47) We watch for possible continuation from there, our next Daily Support area is at 3809-3787 depending how much Supply we have we might find more short covering before next Daily Support as but if we have enough our bid is under 3800 which another area of buyers at 3776-60. If we do hold 3892-87 Today we watch if we will trade within this balance and possibly make a run at upper Supply area at 3953-40 but we must take out 3932-27 and hold 3915-10 for that to happen if not we can rotate lower. Data coming 8:30 today, might be good wait until it shows clear direction or until things settle down.
Levels to Watch
Resistance : Key Daily 3957-53 // 3988-76 Key Intraday 3932-27 // 3944-40 // 3976-71
Support : Key Daily 3914-3890 // 3809-3787 Key Intraday 3892-87 // 3878-74 // 3853-47 // 3809-05 Current 3900
⚠️ 🔥 Red Alert - S&P at thin Support Banks running in trouble, the FEDS want to hike but not sure if they can and S&P500 is attemtping to enter back into the previous descending channel.
This support now is becoming thinner as a rebound is not happening. thus i see a danger for 3700 or even 3400-3200 which would be a massive blow for the markets.
We will be awaiting for the CPI inflation to be released tomorrow as well as the news on the banks. US can easily find solution for 1-2 banks (even top-20 ones) but if the crisis escalates we could be up for negative surprises. Check my posts today on that matter.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR
Ps. I like buying Bitcoin these days:
#ES_F 3.13.23 Day Trading Prep Friday 3.10.23 Review : Friday played out exactly within plan except for hitting 3866-47 target but we knew that was a stretch, we found sellers at 3976-71 which was Key Intraday Resistance which gave us nice short trades towards Daily Support at 3915-3890, was a very nice ending to the week.
Monday 3.13.23 Prep : As we can see Globex started the party early, first we opened and got a big move away from Daily Support which is expected any first tests of big areas more often than now will give a good reaction, we hit 3976-71 area sold our position on the way there and introduced more supply. Currently we are under T2 Range and under quite a bit of Supply still, there is no data or events today but we are at possible Daily Support area so if we get continuation how much of it will we get? We have 3915-3890 as our Key Daily Resistance and holding under could bring continued weakness, if we do hol dunder and take out 3878-74 that opens the door for our lower Support and 3853-47 test, if that breaks we watch for continuation towards our next Daily Support at 3809-3787 but could see buying come in before that around 35-25 area unless we are going down on strong volume and will just take those areas out. For us to see stability today we need to hold this 3866-53 area and push back inside previous days range but for now signs are pointing towards the downside unless the RTH order flow tells us otherwise.
Levels to Watch
Resistance : Key Daily 3915-3890 Key Intraday 3915-10 // 3931-27 3944-40 Current 3892-87? 3901-98
Support : Next Daily 3809-3787 Key Intraday 3866-63 // 3853-47 // 3839-35 // 3809-05 Current 3878-74? 3866-63
*** Careful trading today market has been acting weird since globex, we are at an area of bigger support so we have buyers BUT we also have size coming out and possible continuation to margin calls or size getting out unless we can hold this support area.
ES PO3 AMD LEVELSES PO3 AMD LEVELS
monday 13th we enter distribution after taking accumulation low during manipulation
SPX500 - The Smallest Retrace & The First To GoI have to point out once again that, despite all the bearish fundamentals, market price action is simply not a bear market. You see this so clearly on SPX's monthly bars:
During the worst of October, all the market was really doing was retracing to the two-month late 2020 orderblock that ultimately led to the 4,800 ATH. Price has since retraced and the markets at large don't like to dump, even on bad news. Even CPI coming in hot didn't lead to much of a dump.
The Geopolitical Climate With China
The most important factor when trading these markets is that you have to keep an eye on what's going on with China at all times. I've talked in my previous posts extensively and ad nauseum about how the Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic has killed a lot more people than the Chinese Communist Party and western establish media let on.
But what this all points to is simply that the Party is in a weakened state. What the Party being in a weakened state means is that a number of geopolitical factions, most notably the western globalist (western Communist Party) bloc has its eyes on how to seize and take control of China as the evil regime falls.
The way the globalists will do things is not to invade China, because the Chinese people and the world will not recognize a western occupation of the mainland. Instead, over the years, groups like the World Economic Forum and other globalist arms have, for a long period of time, been grooming certain Chinese nationals, who are themselves members of the Party, to make preparations for how to seize control of the country when Xi Jinping falls.
The problem the globalists face is that they aspire to install a one world government. But to do that, they need the world's (formerly) largest population and oldest country, China.
However, the existence of the CCP with its rogue, arrogant, and dominating nature makes this impossible, unless the globalists would like to make the CCP the center of the world government, which they obviously do not. Because they want to be the center of the world government.
And so preparations have been in the works for years as to how to take control of China when the Party is gone.
The problem for humanity is that China's 5,000 years of tradition and culture are critical for the future. Yet, everywhere the globalist faction goes you get a twisted, atheist, modernist culture that can't tell the difference between genders, is highly promiscuous, and serves in many ways as a force even worse than the CCP has been in its weakened state over the recent years.
And so, this is the real threat: what the globalist faction will do when it feels the CCP is teetering on the edge. Anything is on the table, because a global crisis will be needed in advance. Environmental disasters, pandemics and plagues, war, problems with nuclear plants, social problems within certain countries, Project Bluebeam stuff, all are on the table.
And all such risks are on the table at any time, and these problems are arranged to unfold when the markets are high, not low, so as to create an additional layer of pain and panic in both the business and civilian sectors.
A layer of the crisis wherein everyone is losing a lot of money is important, because it hurts and causes a lot of damage, and the Party needs a significant and intense crisis in order to have the pretext needed to "save you" from as they install one world government, which is really, the "Ultimate Goal of Communism."
So, be careful. Whatever you believe is your own business, but at least someone is willing to warn you of what is unfolding under your nose.
The call
On weekly bars you can see that the February FOMC pump came up just short of the September CPI gap surprise panic that led markets to the 2022 low of the year:
What this should tell you is that no matter the bearish narrative prevailing or the bearish, scary impulse that may be coming, the SPX has not topped.
Instead, I believe after we're finished being scary for a bit, we're going to see 4,500.
Moreover, because I believe that Oil, Natural Gas, and even Silver are prone to go up in the shorterm, that the SPX's retrace is going to be the smallest, and it'll be the first of the indexes to go up.
WTI Crude - Step 1) $88 --> Step 2) $58
Natural Gas? More Like Natural Go. 4-Handle Coming.
Silver SI - A Simple Trendline and Levels Scalp
A 200 point dump into the 3,800s is enough to make SPY calls expire worthless, enough to scare bulls, trap bears, and enough to give you a 15% upside for a run to 4,500.
You need to fade the bear hype right now, but you also have to be careful about how and when you get in. That means utilizing ETFs, commons that compose the index, and calls that have a 3-6 month expiry, because things could take 30 or 45 days to really unfold and really breakout.
But importantly, if you do see SPX 4,500 and 4,600, you have to check your enthusiasm. You might see a new ATH, but that ATH may serve to be a bump and run reversal that will seriously hurt you.
And most critically, you need to focus your effort on improving your character, taking care of your family, and patching up whatever regrets you're carrying around. Because life is short. Human life is so short. Everyone is about to experience and understand again just how fragile human life really is.
Be careful, friends.
#ES_F 3.10.23 Day Trading Prep Thursday 3.09.23 Review : Yday RTH gave a perfect trade, we pushed over 3995-90 on pre market data, hit the upper part of our potential Daily Resistance and Key Intraday Resistance 4012-08, pushed above it and failed giving us a nice trade down to Key Intraday Support, once we broke we got a nice move down to 2 of the lower Support targets and hit our Daily Support that we were looking for.
Friday 3.10.23 Prep : Contract rolled over, we are at Daily Support and its Friday with data coming here which tells us could be a wild day and maybe hard to trade. This week felt like a lot of work but a good trading week over all so will look to not get involved much today and maybe try to wait for that 1-2 good set ups once I see what we are working with. Very possible to see continuation under 3915 today as we cleaned out a lot of buyers from below if we have Supply to come out we could see this 3915-3890 Support break and get some continuation under it, IF we take out Prev Day Low we have 3901-3890 as an area to watch for hold or continuation from that we watch 3878-74 and 3866-53 areas for continuation IF things get crazy next Daily Support is 3809-3787. If we do run out of Supply today and more sellers dont come in we could see a push back towards T2 low and see if we can push back inside to accept but if not then we might need to go look for the bid again.
Levels to Watch
Resistance : Daily 4012-3990 Key Intraday 3976-71 // 3957-53 Key For Continuation Higher 3995-90
Support : Daily 3915-3890 Next Daily 3809-3790 Key Intraday 3937-27 // 3914-10 Current 3944-40
***** This Prep is done on new contract price
