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#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 06.02 - 06.07Last Week : Last week market opened up outside of Value, build some more supply then started the correction lower, we were able to move down to VAL where we found our first Support where we were able to do some covering but eventually we broke, held under and go continuation towards the Lower Edge, we were able to test its bottom where we ran out of Supply and got a sharp reversal back inside Value for a big move from VAL to VAH. This Week : Going into this week if we look at Structure we can see we did a look below VAL and fail which gave a return trip to VAH which we tagged, build more supply under and Failed which gave another round trip back to VAL and this time we tagged Key Support at 5249.75 - 44.75 and it acted as proper Key Support giving another big bounce all the way back towards Key Area and as we can see end of day push over 5295.50 - 90.25. Globex consolidated over Key Area but was not able to hold and we got a flush back inside the Means of 5295.50 - 44.75 Range. This to me screams balance, and I think market will want to stay around these areas going forward until we will build up enough supply to accept under VAL or get stronger buyers to give us acceptance over VAH. My bias is that we might not see higher prices over 5320-40s for some time but of course we never know and have to trade what market gives, for now I believe this current intraday range can finally become our balance range which we haven't gotten in some time, we have been moving ranges back and forth without spending too long in each and I think its about time we get some good balance action that can last a while. The way I will be trading this we have our intraday range means at 5279.25 - 75.25 // 5264.75 - 60.75 this is the area where price might want to keep returning back into, pushes out of them can go towards the Key Edges of 5295.50 - 90.25 as our Resistance and 5249.75 - 44.75 but this is the time to be careful with looking perfect tags or too much continuation outside of Key Edges because if we have found balance we will look for any pushes out of the Means to return back either from failures at/above/below Key Support/Resistance or we could even see pushes out of means that will consolidate above/below without tagging Key Edges and then return back in, and when price is between this will be our balance/build up area. Will continue trading this range until we can see clear acceptance Over or Under Key Support/Resistance and holds over/under VAH/VAL. Levels to Watch : Current Range 5295.50 - 5244.75 Means 5279.25 - 75.25 // 5264.75- 60.75 Key Resistance 5295.50 - 90.25 Key Support 5249.75 - 44.75 IF we do happen to leave balance and accept under/over the ranges would be Above : 5341 - 36 Key Resistance 5324.75 - 20.75 // 5310.50 - 06.50 Means 5295.50 - 90.25 Below : 5234.25 - 30.25 // 5219.75 - 15.75 Means 5204.25 - 5199.75 Key Support
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 5.28 - 5.31Last Week : Last week Market opened over VAH and spent all week building Supply over it, as discussed in Sunday Prep since we were at ATH with no over hang we needed to wait for Supply to build up for any meaningful back fill of previous areas and that 5341 - 5290 might be our Range where price will want to stay around and keep returning into for some time while it builds that Supply. On Thursday we ended up pushing inside the Edge but failed to find acceptance in it and the push back out gave us the flush of the inventory filling the buyers into the Value, even with how strong the move looked with break/hold under Key Support on Friday Globex failed to hold under it and we found our way back inside 5341 - 5290 Range where we were able to push back into the Means for the Range where we closed the week in VAH. This Week : Few things this week, we have Month End, Settlement changes from T2 to T1 which we don't know just yet how that will impact the trading and we had Holiday yesterday which pushed us over VAH and we are again building up Supply over it. For now we are inside T2 Range which was Thursday I believe the change goes in effect Today or this week, we are right around Previous Days Range and 5341 - 36 already showed us this morning that it's acting properly as good Resistance. So far going into this week Thursdays flush showed us that don't have stronger buyers up here just yet who want to keep paying over Value and keep pushing us into new range above and that even with strong flush we didn't have enough Supply to accept under 5295 - 90 to continue filling more buyers into VAL. This tells me again that market may want to stay in this 5341 - 5290 Intraday Range and balance around it, we have to be ready to spend quite a bit of time in these areas and trade around them until market will show us clear acceptance and intensions of moving Ranges and that can take some time because we are in a Key Spot on higher time frames we are at tops of Daily/Weekly Balances without finding acceptance above and without having the Supply just yet to move under the Middle of those balances which is around the 5290-80s area. Plan is to continue trading 5341 - 5290 Range level to level just like last week with moves out of its 5324.75 - 20.75 // 5310.50 - 06.50 Means and then returns back towards/inside them. Failures to accept over 5341 - 36 will likely find their way back to/under 24.75 - 20.75, pushes under 5310.50 - 06.50 could also be absorbed under and find their way back to/over 10.50 - 06.50 and inside the Means we could balance. We are in lower volume times so also have to give time for the moves to properly set up and be ready to correct back. Levels to watch : Current Range 5341 - 5290.25 5341 - 36 Key Resistance 5324.75 - 20.75 // 5310.50 - 06.50 Means for the Range 5295.50 - 90.25 Key Support If Accept over 5341 - 36 next Range 5386.50 - 5336 5356 - 52 // 5370.50 - 66.50 Means and Edge Top 5386.50 - 81.50 Key Resistance If Accept under 5295.50 - 90.25 lower Range 5295.50 - 5244.75 5279.25 - 75.25 // 5264.75 - 60.75 Means and VAL 5249.75 - 44.75 Key Support
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Trading Plan for Friday, May 24th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, May 24th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, as the market has transitioned from a rally to a short-term dip. Bulls are attempting to defend key supports, while bears are looking for further downside continuation. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5265 (major), 5253 (major) Major Supports: 5230-35 (major), 5202 (major), 5177 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5293 (major), 5302 (major) Major Resistances: 5317 (major), 5380 (major), 5400 (major) Trading Strategy Post-Rally Dip: The market is now in a short-term dip after a prolonged rally. Exercise caution and avoid chasing longs or shorts. Long Opportunities: Look for a bounce and reclaim above 5274 for potential long entries. Consider failed breakdowns at 5265 or a dip and reclaim at 5230-35 for more aggressive long entries. Short Opportunities: Consider shorts at 5317 (if the market rallies strongly) or on failed breakdowns below 5265 after a bounce/retest. Exercise caution and take profits level-to-level. Focus on Reactions and Price Discovery: Wait for confirmation signals and clear reactions at key levels before committing to any trades. Bull Case Defending Support: Bulls need to defend the 5265-72 zone to prevent further downside and maintain the possibility of a bounce. Reclaiming Resistances: If bulls reclaim the 5293 and 5302 levels, the dip could be considered over, opening up a potential move towards the previous highs. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5265 could trigger further selling, targeting 5230-35 and potentially deeper levels. Look for bounces/failed breakdowns at these levels for potential short entries. News: Top Stories for May 24th, 2024 📈 U.S. Durable Goods Orders: The latest data shows an unexpected increase in April, suggesting resilience in manufacturing despite economic headwinds. 🌍 Geopolitical Tensions and Their Economic Impacts: Recent surveys indicate that geopolitical risks are a top concern for global family offices, with significant implications for asset allocations in North America and Asia Pacific. 🛡️ Shifts in Safe Haven Assets: In an environment of growing debt concerns, investors are increasingly turning to gold over traditional government bonds, marking a significant shift in safe haven preferences. 🌎 Climate Change and Economic Impact: A session at the 10th World Water Forum highlighted the severe economic repercussions of climate change and water scarcity in Laos, underscoring the urgent need for sustainable water management solutions. 📊 Global PMI Data Releases: The release of the S&P Global Services and Manufacturing PMI reports provides critical insights into the economic conditions of the services and manufacturing sectors, which are key indicators of overall economic health.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 5.19 - 5.24Last Week : Last week Market opened under the VAL of this 5368 - 5207 HTF Range with our Sellers being in Value/VAL and Cost Basis/Supports at the lower Edge. We spent few days consolidating between VAL and the Edge with a move on Tuesday that first failed to hold under 5230s pre market and then afternoon push over VAL trapping the shorts under Value. Wednesday data brought in Volume and market continued higher through next Key Area putting the squeeze on and pushing us in/through VAH, from there one more target was left to test the Edge and see if we push through it and accept or we get a response in opposite direction, discussed last week before the tag that first tests of these bigger HTF areas often provide good response in opposite direction which gave us a tag/ supply build under Edge and a move back to VAH with Friday closing the week with filling the buyers with that Supply around VAH. This Week : Few things we know so far going into this week, of course depending where we will open and what we do in Globex but for now we are inside 5341 - 5290 Intraday Range, we are inside T2 Range with buyers in/under VAH and Trapped Supply/Sellers still could be over 30s and closer to the Edge Bottom of 5348. So far it looks like market has chosen 5368 - 5207 to be our HTF Range going forward until we will be ready to move out of it again which tells me we may spend time balancing around it back and forth while we distribute and fill orders as we will have buying and selling in it from Trapped Shorts and Trapped Longs/New Longs who will be looking for continuation out of this Range. For us to see continuation higher out of this HTF Range we would need to either build a base under the Edge bottom or see a strong bid through it trapping more sellers under AND start balancing over 5256 - 52 area without coming back in, until then holding under the Edge will mean weakness BUT it doesn't mean we will just sell back down that easily as well, we have to consider that we are at ATH with no overhang above us and no real Volume built up here just yet that would give us stronger moves lower. With that in mind there is a chance that we might spend some time in and around this current Intraday Range of 5341 - 5290.25 building that Supply. As been mentioned over last few weeks, have to be careful of smaller ranges and quicker/smaller moves, especially now that we might have both sides starting to be trapped and looking to be trading in and out of their size around here. IF Volume does come in and we accept back inside the Value and start holding under VAH we could see a move all the way back towards VAL to fill in the buyers in those areas, our Size Shorts would be trapped in Value and under VAL where we could expect absorption if we get there but careful as it could take time there as well. IF we don't get the Volume to push us through the above Edge or the Volume to give us acceptance and continuation under 5295.50 - 90.25 Key Support then we could spend quite some time around this 5341 - 5290 Intraday Range with pushes out of it being bought or sold back inside it. Levels to Watch : Current Range 5341 - 5290.25 5341 - 36 Key Resistance 5324.75 - 20.75 // 5310.50 - 06.50 Means for the Range 5295.50 - 90.25 Key Support If we are to just balance around this intraday range then we could see pushes out of the Means towards Key Areas and then returns back towards/into the Means, this is what I will be watching for unless it shows acceptance under/over Key Areas. If Accept over 5341 - 36 next Range 5386.50 - 5336 5356 - 52 // 5370.50 - 66.50 Means and Edge Top 5386.50 - 81.50 Key Resistance If Accept under 5295.50 - 90.25 5279.25 - 75.25 // 5264.75 - 60.75 Means and VAL 5249.75 - 44.75 Key Support
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 22nd, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 22nd, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, consolidating within a tight range. Expecting a breakout, but with heightened anticipation due to Nvidia's upcoming earnings after the bell. Important Note: Nvidia earnings after the bell could significantly impact market direction and volatility. Be prepared for potentially large, unpredictable moves. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5335 (major), 5329, 5322 (major), 5307 Major Supports: 5300-02 (major), 5272-68 (major), 5235-40 (major), 5217-21 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5346-49 (major), 5369 (major), 5401-03 (major) Major Resistances: 5412-15 (major), 5438 (major), 5472-76 (major) Trading Strategy Nvidia Earnings Watch: Exercise caution and be prepared for significant volatility following Nvidia's earnings announcement. Consolidation Breakout: The market is coiling up for a potential explosive move. Focus on the 5302-5347 range for a potential breakout in either direction. Long Opportunities: Look for bids at 5329, 5322, or 5300-02 if they hold after potential tests. Consider taking profits level to level, especially given the heightened risk environment. Short Opportunities: Avoid shorting green candles and breaking trends, as the win rate is typically low in such scenarios. However, for those comfortable with counter-trend trades, monitor 5412-15 as a potential shorting zone if price rallies significantly after earnings. Bull Case Bull Flag Breakout: The current consolidation range could be interpreted as a bull flag. An upward breakout above 5347 would target 5369 and 5401-03, potentially leading to a strong upward move. Holding Support: If the 5322 support level holds, expect further consolidation and a potential breakout later. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5302 would trigger a deeper retracement, potentially retesting the 5272-68 (major) and 5235-40 (major) zones. Shorting Opportunity: If 5302 is tested and followed by a bounce and acceptance of lower levels, consider entering a short position around 5299 for a level-to-level move down. News: Top Stories for May 22nd, 2024 🌐 IMF Highlights Cybersecurity Risks to Financial Stability: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a warning about the increasing threat of cyberattacks, which pose a significant risk to global financial stability. This underscores the need for enhanced cybersecurity measures across the financial sector. 🏦 Federal Reserve's Cautious Stance on Inflation: Minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting reveal a cautious approach towards inflation, with officials prepared to adjust interest rates if economic data warrants. This has implications for future monetary policy and market expectations. 🌍 Global Trade Prospects Brighten: Reports from the IMF, WTO, and OECD suggest a rebound in global trade, driven by easing inflation and a robust U.S. economy. This recovery follows a slowdown in 2023, with significant implications for global economic growth. 📊 Economic Outlooks and Forecasts: Various economic outlooks from entities like J.P. Morgan and Deloitte provide insights into future economic conditions, highlighting the ongoing adjustments in response to geopolitical risks, inflation concerns, and policy shifts. These forecasts are crucial for strategic planning and investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 15th, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 15th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, consolidating within a tight range after a strong rally. The market could continue to build out a bull flag pattern or break out directly to new highs. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5329 (major), 5318 (major), 5302-04 (major) Major Supports: 5272-74 (major), 5236 (major), 5208 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5347 (major), 5365-67 (major), 5386-89 (major) Major Resistances: 5404-07 (major), 5450 (major) Trading Strategy Chop Zone Management: The market is consolidating within the 5302-5347 range, with an even tighter range of 5329-5347. Avoid overtrading and focus on level-to-level scalping for small gains. Long Opportunities: Look for a bounce and reclaim above 5317 if the 5309-11 area is tested. If the market dips lower, consider longs at 5302-04, 5272, or 5287 (major). Short Opportunities: As always, avoid shorting green candles and breaking trends. If considering shorts, 5342-47 may offer a potential dip, but proceed with extreme caution. Bull Case Bull Flag Continuation: The market may continue to build out the 5309-5342 bull flag pattern, potentially breaking out for a new push into all-time highs (ATHs). Target 5359, then 5375-77 in this scenario. Consolidation and Breakout: If the market consolidates within the 5329-5347 range and breaks out above 5347, it could target the resistances mentioned above. Adding on Strength: Monitor overnight action for potential flagging below 5219 as a possible entry point for adding to long positions. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5302 could trigger a deeper retracement, potentially targeting 5272 and lower. Entry Points: Look for a bounce attempt and rejection at 5302, then consider entering a short position around 5300. Remember to manage risk with level-to-level profit-taking. News: Top Stories for May 15th, 2024 📈 Renewed Market Rally: The stock market has experienced a renewed record-setting rally, surprising many of Wall Street's top strategists and prompting revisions of year-end S&P 500 targets. This surge reflects robust confidence in market fundamentals and investor optimism. 🌍 Geopolitical Tensions and Commodity Prices: The death of Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash has introduced new uncertainties into the oil market, potentially affecting global oil prices. Concurrently, gold futures have reached new record settlements amid growing geopolitical tensions and rate-cut expectations. 🏦 Federal Reserve's Economic Outlook: The minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting are highly anticipated as they may provide further clarity on the timing of potential rate cuts and reveal the level of consensus among policymakers. This release is crucial for understanding the Fed's future monetary policy direction. 💼 Corporate Earnings Reports: Nvidia's earnings report is particularly significant as it is a key driver of the S&P 500's recent growth. Investors and analysts will be closely watching this report to gauge the health of the tech sector and its impact on broader market trends. 📊 Global Economic Indicators: Recent data releases, such as the CPI report and retail sales data, have fueled speculations of a cooling economy. These indicators are essential for assessing the overall health of the economy and potential shifts in monetary policy.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Monday, May 20th, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, May 20th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, consolidating after a historic rally. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5309-11 (major), 5302 (major), 5294 Major Supports: 5267-72 (major), 5232-35 (major), 5208-11 (major), 5150-55 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5329, 5333 (major), 5342-5345 (major) Major Resistances: 5375-77 (major), 5404-07 (major) Trading Strategy Consolidation & Pattern Formation: The market is in a post-rally consolidation phase, likely forming a bull flag pattern between 5309 and 5342. Expect choppy trading with potential for breakouts or breakdowns. Long Opportunities: Wait for a test of 5309-11 support, followed by a bounce and reclaim above 5317, as a potential long entry signal. Short Opportunities: As always, avoid shorting green candles and breaking trends. If considering shorts, wait for a confirmed breakdown of 5302, then look for an entry around 5300 after a bounce or failed breakdown. Level-to-Level Trading: Focus on scalping profits within the range as the market consolidates. Exercise patience and avoid overtrading in this choppy environment. Bull Case Bull Flag Continuation: The market may continue to fill out the 5309-5342 range, potentially leading to a breakout toward new all-time highs. Target 5359 and 5375-77 in this scenario. Adding on Strength: Monitor overnight action for potential flagging above 5309 and below 5219 as a possible entry point for adding to long positions. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A breakdown below 5302, with confirmation from a bounce attempt and rejection, would signal a more significant correction. Use caution with breakdown trades as they are prone to traps. News: Top Stories for May 20th, 2024 🇨🇳 Steady Benchmark Lending Rates in China: Amidst ongoing efforts to stabilize the property sector, China's central bank has maintained its benchmark lending rates. This decision follows a series of bold measures aimed at addressing challenges in the property sector, highlighting the delicate balance the government seeks to maintain in its economic policies. 🏦 Federal Reserve's Upcoming Policy Meeting Minutes: Investors are keenly awaiting the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's recent policy meeting. This document is expected to provide critical insights into the Fed's economic outlook and future policy directions, influencing market sentiments and investment strategies. 🌐 Geopolitical Tensions and Trade Policies: The global trade environment remains tense as geopolitical issues continue to unfold. Notably, the U.S. President's decision to raise tariffs on Chinese goods has reignited debates over the economic impacts of such tariffs, with potential repercussions for international trade relations and domestic economies. 📉 Global Market Reactions to Mixed Economic Data: As the world economies emit mixed signals, global markets are poised for a potential summertime rally, albeit with an awareness of the risks that could derail such optimism. This scenario underscores the complex interplay of economic indicators and market psychology in shaping investment landscapes. 🏦 Regulatory Adjustments and Financial Sector Implications: Discussions among regulators about reducing proposed capital requirements signify a shift that could enhance the clout of banks. Such regulatory adjustments are crucial as they could affect the stability and operational strategies of financial institutions globally, reflecting broader trends in financial regulation and oversight.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Friday, May 17th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, May 17th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, as the market shows signs of fatigue after 10 consecutive green days. Traders are anticipating a pullback and adjusting strategies accordingly. Important Note: It's OPEX Friday, which often leads to choppy price action and pinning (price moving a lot but ending near the starting point). Exercise caution and be prepared for potential traps. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5309-11 (major), 5294 (major) Major Supports: 5271 (major), 5249 (major), 5217-20 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5329-31 (major), 5342 (major), 5361 (major) Major Resistances: 5398-5400 (major), 5433-36 (major) Trading Strategy Post-Rally Caution: The market is overdue for a correction after the recent parabolic move. Prioritize protecting profits and consider reducing exposure. Long Opportunities: Look for failed breakdowns at 5309-11, followed by a reclaim above 5314, as a potential long entry point. Short Opportunities: As always, avoid shorting green candles and breaking trends. If considering shorts, look for a test and bounce/failed breakdown at 5309-11, then consider shorting at 5306 for a move down the levels, exiting all runners at 5294. Proceed with extreme caution as shorting in an uptrend is risky. Level-to-Level Focus: The breakout from the downtrend channel has created a volatile environment. Trade the provided support and resistance levels rigorously and take profits aggressively. Bull Case Holding Support: Defending 5309-11 is crucial for maintaining short-term bullish momentum. A hold here would allow for further base-building and potentially another leg up to 5330, 5342. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5309-11 triggers a more significant dip. Consider shorting at 5306 after a bounce/failed breakdown confirmation, with level-to-level profit-taking. News: Top Stories for May 17th, 2024 🌍 Eurozone Financial Stability Risks: The European Central Bank has issued warnings regarding the fragility of financial stability in the Eurozone amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties during a significant election year. 💼 U.S. Defense Spending Surge: Recent U.S. military budget allocations have reached new heights, with significant implications for global military and defense strategies. 💰 China's Treasury Sell-Off: In a notable shift in financial strategy, China has reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury and agency bonds, marking a record sell-off that underscores evolving trade and economic relations. 📉 Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Strategy: The Federal Reserve signals a cautious approach towards interest rate adjustments, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation and economic recovery. 📈 Global Trade Dynamics: A significant rebound in global trade is anticipated, driven by easing inflation and robust economic activities in key regions, promising a shift in international trade flows and economic recovery.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
SPY May Rally Above $540 Before You Know It...My research continues to support more Bullish trending for the SPY and other US major indexes. I keep seeing others propose a market crash scenario - week after week... after week. I certainly hope you were not following their suggestions too closely - because the SPY has rallied more than 7% from the recent lows. That's a lot of losses piling up for anyone caught on the short side of the markets right now. Watch my video. Learn how I read the markets in a different format. And learn how to use my research to help you become a better trader. I've posted many training videos on TradingView - please spend some time checking them out. Get ready for a potentially explosive move in the SPY - targeting $545+... possibly rallying above $560 before the end of June 2024.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 5.12 - 5.17Last Week : Last week market opened above 5159.25 - 54.25 Key Resistance and gave a pull back/hold of that area showing us that it was holding as Support now. We knew that from there we could either Fail at or around VAH and pull back under that Key area or we could get through VAH and if we hold above that can bring in more buyers to give us pushes towards the above Edge. We were able to push through VAH during Globex session creating a gap which held above VAH during RTH and gave us the first push to the above Edge. Rest of the week we spent consolidating around the Edge / above VAH without being able to push back in or even tag the VAH area which brought in more buyers to create a cost basis around that area and once selling ran out we pushed for next ranges VAL. As we saw from Fridays action we still have sellers at VAL and could not accept above 5249.75 - 44.75 Key Resistance for now, if we remember that area of 5263.25 - 5282.25 above VAL is our previously created GAP to the downside which we created when we first found the top in April, this gap was filled pretty quick but it was so big and still had Supply above so I decided to keep it and we can see on this retest that we still had Supply in it after spending time away from it. This Week : We are at tricky spot here as we now again have a Cost Basis and Support under us but also have Supply with Sellers above, of course this could be a spot for big reversal or for continuation through VAL inside above Value to start spending time in the BUT it could also be a tricky spot where we will spend time between this Supply and Cost Basis areas until market cleans up and accepts higher or lower. Volatility is down and we are getting closer to Summer trading which could mean even less volatility without big money trying to move the markets too much as we are now in a good spot for lower distribution, we can use the Supply above to keep us under and Supports below to keep us up while we clean up and fill orders. Going into this week we are set to open inside 5249.75- 5199.75 Intraday Range, we are inside Previous Day Range and just at or above T2 Range which to me says watch out for slower smaller range trading. Will it be the case ? we will have to see but what we know from Friday action is that we have buyers at 5234.25 - 30.25 which is the top of our Intraday range mean and we will call current Support, we also have buying at or right under 5240-38 area which kept us above the 34-30 with only one good test of it and we have Selling at 5264.75 - 60.75 which will be our Current Intrarange Resistance if we want to try and accept in the above Range, we also need to watch out for 5256 - 54 or so area as well because we have trapped supply over it on Fridays flush, we could spend some time around these above mentioned areas until we can decide if we will accept in the new Range above or if we will build up enough Supply to fill the buyers under 5234 - 30. Yes 5249.75 - 44.75 is still Key Resistance but for now it could act more as an intraday mean between our buyers and sellers and price may want to keep coming back towards it until we can either accept over 64 - 60 and start balancing in that Mean to show acceptance or we get under 34 - 30 into that Mean to fill the buyers. Careful for smaller ranges and quicker reversals, I have observed for now that with good entries market is giving 7-8 point clean moves until the reversals and chop come in, and will sprinkle in occasional 10 - 12+ moves but going into the beginning of the week I will focus on catching more of these 7 point moves from around the levels and not worry until bigger targets until market will show that it has potential for it because its easy to get caught up waiting for bigger moves and either giving back good profit on reversals or while waiting for continuation and end up ruining mental capital, instead can try and catch 2-3 of these 7-8 point moves and have a nice day. Levels to watch : Current Range 5249.75 - 5199.75 Means 5234.25 - 30.25 // 5219.75 - 15.75 Key Support 5204.25 - 5199.75 5240 - 38 and Under still has Buying and 34 - 30 can keep acting as Support longer than we want but if we accept under we need to watch out for balancing between the Means If Accept Over 5249.75 - 44.75 we have 5256 - 54 and 5264.75 - 60.75 to watch out and for price to possibly be coming back towards and under 49.75 - 44.75, would need to start balancing between 5264.75 - 5275.25 to show better acceptance in new range but if anything levels here would be Means 5264.75 - 60.75 // 5279.25 - 75.25 Key Resistance 5295.50 - 90.25 IF Accept under Key Support and Edge Low levels are Means 5188.25 - 84.50 // 5174.25 - 70.50 Key Support 5159.25 - 5.25
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Trading Plan for Thursday, May 16th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, May 16th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but highly extended and statistically due for a significant pullback after 10 consecutive green days. Proceed with extreme caution and prioritize protecting gains. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5308-10 (major) Major Supports: 5272 (major), 5253-56 (major), 5200-02 (major), 5145-50 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5327-31 (major), 5337 (major), 5370-72 (major) Major Resistances: 5395-5400 (major), 5430-35 (major) Trading Strategy Extreme Caution: 10 green days in a row is statistically rare, and a deep pullback could occur at any time. Long Opportunities: Avoid chasing long entries at current levels. Focus on potential bids at 5308-10 only after a dip and strong reaction (ideally, a failed breakdown of the afternoon low). Consider deeper longs at 5272, 5253-56, or lower majors only on strong confirmations (failed breakdowns of lows, etc.). Short Opportunities: While shorting in a strong uptrend is discouraged, those comfortable with counter-trend trades may consider the 5370-72 zone, but only after a bounce/failed breakdown. Proceed with extreme caution. Prioritize Preservation: Focus on protecting profits and minimizing risk exposure in this highly uncertain environment. Avoid overtrading and wait for high-probability setups. Bull Case Ultra Bull Case (Unlikely): ES needs to hold above 5308-10 on any dips, with a new base forming between 5308 and 5331. This would be the most bullish scenario, leading to a potential test of 5337, 5348, then 5370-72. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5308-10 could trigger a substantial dip. Watch for bounces/failed breakdowns at 5272, 5253-56, and lower major supports for potential long entries if the market rebounds. If 5308-10 fails, consider shorts after a bounce/failed breakdown at 5300. News: Top Stories for May 16th, 2024 📈 S&P 500 Hits All-Time High: Yesterday, the S&P 500 index reached a new all-time high, closing at 5,253 points. This reflects investor confidence and market optimism driven by favorable economic indicators and expectations of accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. 🌐 IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank are preparing for their spring meetings amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties. These meetings will address global economic issues, including conflict impacts and strategic economic adjustments. 🏦 UN Economic Update: The United Nations will launch the mid-year update of the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2024. This update will assess global economic conditions, highlighting challenges such as high interest rates, debt difficulties, and geopolitical risks. 📊 Wall Street Analyst Revisions: Wall Street analysts are revising their forecasts for the S&P 500 due to the market's unexpected strength. This reflects the dynamic nature of market expectations and investor agility in navigating the evolving financial landscape. 🌍 Critical Minerals Demand: Global economic discussions are focusing on managing the demand for critical minerals essential for low-carbon technologies. This ties into broader sustainability goals and the economic opportunities and challenges for developing countries.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
US Markets May Rally 60% to 100% On Strong Technical DataI posted a similar video yesterday, but it was taken down because I screwed up the content. So, I'll try to post this video without messing up the content. The US markets (particularly the NAS100 - as shown in this video) will likely continue to move in a strong bullish price trend - even against the multiple divergences and other technical peak/exhaustion patterns over the next 3 to 4+ years. Far too many people simply don't understand the dynamics at play right now, with the superheated US economy and the predatory Fed processes creating this parabolic Bullish price move. Be prepared. Many people will be picking tops for the next 3~4+ years, and you are going to hear a lot of FEAR in their voices. You must attempt to understand the true market dynamics at play and stay away from group-think. Hope you enjoy this video.
FX:NAS100Long
by BradMatheny
4
Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 15th, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 15th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but extremely overbought after 9 consecutive green days. Expect high volatility and the potential for a substantial rug pull triggered by the CPI data release. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5257 (major), 5215-17 (major), 5208 (major) Major Supports: 5162 (major), 5133-36 (major), 5096-5100 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5272 (major), 5302 (major), 5329-32 (major) Major Resistances: 5362-64 (major), 5398-5402 (major) Trading Strategy Expect Volatility: Prioritize capital preservation during the CPI release and limit your trading activity. Long Opportunities: Look for failed breakdowns at 5257 (if not already broken) or 5215-17 as potential long entry points after a CPI sell-off. Consider the 5162 and 5133-36 zones for deeper longs, but only on quick recoveries and failed breakdowns. Short Opportunities: Due to the bullish trend and the unpredictable nature of CPI day, avoid shorting unless the market reacts very negatively to the data. Monitor potential back-tests of 5302 or 5329-32, but proceed with extreme caution. Level-to-Level Focus: The breakout from the downtrend channel has created a volatile environment. Trade the provided support and resistance levels rigorously and take profits aggressively. Bull Case Holding Support: If 5217-20 holds after the CPI dip, there's potential for continued consolidation within the 5236-5261 range, setting up for a later breakout towards 5285, 5294, and 5302+. Ultra Bull Case (Unlikely): ES would need to hold above 5257 (extremely unlikely) to continue upwards with minimal correction. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5217-20, especially if the CPI news is negative, triggers a larger dip. Monitor failed breakdowns at 5162 and 5133-36 for potential long entries. News: Top Stories for May 15th, 2024 📉 U.S. April CPI Report Released: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, indicating a slight moderation in inflation with headline inflation at 3.4% and core inflation (excluding food and energy) at 3.6%. This data is crucial for understanding the Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics). 📊 Impact on Federal Reserve Policy: The CPI data implies a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate adjustments. Despite a slight decrease in inflation, the rate remains above the Fed's 2% target, leading to market uncertainty about potential rate cuts (Federal Reserve). 🛢️ Sector-Specific Inflation: Significant contributors to the CPI increase included gasoline and shelter costs, which together accounted for over 70% of the monthly rise. Gasoline prices increased by 2.8% in April due to seasonal factors and changes in refinery practices (USA Today). 📈 Global Inflation Trends: The International Monetary Fund projects a global inflation rate decline to 5.8% for 2024, down from 6.8% in 2023. This trend is attributed to tighter monetary policies and a drop in energy prices, though regional variations persist, with hyperinflation in Venezuela and lower rates in developed economies (IMF). 🌐 Market and Trade Impact: High inflation rates can increase export prices, making goods less competitive globally, while countries with lower inflation may see more stable consumer prices and better trade balances. Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions continue to influence these dynamics (UNCTAD).
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
Why Large Firms with Huge Cash? Small Firm Are Leading...Berkshire Hathaway, an investment company is not investing. What is the signal? Why are they hoarding cash? • Not much good investment opportunity ahead • Preparing for tougher time E-mini S&P 500 Futures & Options Ticker: ES Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $12.50 Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures & Options Ticker: MES Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $1.25 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:M2K1!
by konhow
3
Trading Plan for Tuesday, May 14th, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, May 14th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but cautious given the 8 consecutive green days. The risk of a sudden pullback increases as the market becomes more overbought. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5235 (major), 5221-17 (major), 5210 (major) Major Supports: 5192 (major), 5174-76 (major), 5144-47 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5246 (major), 5262 (major), 5272 (major) Major Resistances: 5302 (major), 5327-29 (major), 5400-05 (major) Trading Strategy Chop Zone Management: The 5235-5262 zone is a chop area, making it difficult to trade with high conviction. Avoid overtrading and focus on level-to-level scalping for small gains. Long Opportunities: Look for failed breakdowns at 5235 or 5210 for long entries. Prioritize reactions at these levels, ideally with quick recoveries. In the event of a deeper dip, consider knife-catches at 5192, 5174-76. Short Opportunities: As always, avoid shorting green candles and breaking trends. For those inclined to counter-trend shorting, consider 5272 or 5302 as potential levels, but proceed with extreme caution. Bull Case Uptrend Continuation: As long as 5235 holds (or any breakdown is quickly recovered), the bullish trend remains intact. Focus on a potential base building within the 5235-5262 range, followed by an upside breakout targeting 5272, 5290, and ultimately 5302. Ultra Bull Case: No dip below 5235, with continued basing above it. Reclaiming 5245 could be a signal to add exposure, but only with acceptance and no break above 5262. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5235 would trigger a potential correction. Monitor bounces/failed breakdowns at 5231, 5221-17, and 5210 for short entry opportunities, but prioritize a more significant level like 5192 for confirmation and to avoid traps. News: Top Stories for May 14th, 2024 China's Strategic Bond Sale: China initiates a substantial bond sale, aiming for $140 billion to combat its property crisis and stimulate economic growth through infrastructure projects. Russia's Economic Resilience: Despite Western sanctions, Russia's economy shows unexpected strength, with GDP projected to outpace the U.S. This resilience is attributed to increased non-oil revenues and strategic fiscal management. Indonesia's Nickel Boom: Western car manufacturers are flocking to Indonesia for its nickel resources, crucial for electric vehicle batteries, highlighting Indonesia's growing importance in the global EV supply chain. Meme Stock Mania Returns: The meme stock phenomenon resurges, with GameStop and AMC Entertainment experiencing significant price volatility following social media activity by influential traders. Global Economic Concerns: Leaders from Serbia, North Macedonia, and Georgia express apprehensions about the requirements for joining international economic communities, potentially impacting regional economic policies. China's Bond Sale and Global Implications: China's upcoming bond sale aims to bolster its economy and could influence global interest rates, foreign exchange markets, and international bond market dynamics. Meme Stock Resurgence and Market Volatility: The return of "Roaring Kitty" to social media sparks a renewed frenzy in meme stocks, leading to dramatic price swings in GameStop, AMC, and BlackBerry.
CME_MINI:ESM2024
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Monday, May 13th, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, May 13th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but extremely overbought and due for a pullback. Traders are advised to exercise extreme caution and prioritize protecting gains over chasing further upside. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5236 (major), 5225, 5213 (major) Major Supports: 5202-04 (major), 5186 (major), 5155 (major), 5112-15 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5246 (major), 5261 (major), 5272 (major), 5303 (major) Major Resistances: 5329 (major), 5354 (major), 5398-5400 (major) Trading Strategy Pullback Anticipation: Expect a pullback after 7 consecutive green days. Be prepared for a sudden reversal and adjust your strategy accordingly. Long Opportunities: Prioritize failed breakdowns at 5236, then 5213 for long entries. Look for bounces and reclaims, especially if price dips below 5209. Consider deeper longs at major supports (5186, 5155) only if the market shows substantial weakness. Short Opportunities: While avoiding shorting green candles and breaking trends is advised, monitor back-tests of 5272 and 5303 for potential short entries. Proceed with extreme caution and be prepared for sharp reversals. Consolidation Zone: Focus on the 5236-5261 range as a potential consolidation zone. Monitor the price action closely within this range for clues about the next directional move. Bull Case Holding Support: If 5236 holds, continued consolidation within the 5236-5261 range is likely. This would suggest a pause before a potential breakout toward 5272, 5285-88, and ultimately 5303. Ultra Bull Case (Unlikely): ES would need to hold above 5236 and continue building a base overnight for the most bullish scenario. This could trigger a move higher without a significant dip. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5236 triggers a dip, targeting 5213 initially, with potential to extend to the 5186-5115 zone. Monitor bounces/failed breakdowns at these levels for potential short entries. News: Top Stories for May 13th, 2024 1. Corporate Earnings Surge Details: A notable rise in Q1 2024 earnings has been reported among S&P 500 companies, with a majority exceeding analysts' expectations. Impact: This upsurge signals a strong corporate sector potentially boosting market confidence and influencing stock prices. 2. Central Bank Stances on Interest Rates Context: With persistent inflation, central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are cautiously maintaining current interest rates. Implications: This strategy aims to control inflation without disrupting economic stability, reflecting a delicate balance in monetary policy. 3. IMF's Global Growth Forecast Forecast: The IMF projects a global growth rate of 3% for 2024, with potential long-term economic challenges. Significance: This modest growth underscores global economic sluggishness, necessitating strategic economic measures. 4. Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Impact Developments: Tensions in the Middle East are intensifying, affecting global markets and commodity prices. Consequences: These geopolitical issues are critical for financial stability, influencing both market volatility and investor sentiment. 5. Key Economic Indicators Release Upcoming Data: Major economic indicators like consumer price indexes and retail sales are scheduled for release this week. Relevance: These indicators are crucial for assessing the economic health of major economies and will influence forthcoming monetary policy decisions.
CME_MINI:ESM2024
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Friday, May 10th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, May 10th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but with a cautious undertone after a significant multi-day rally. Expect potential profit-taking and a reduction in aggressive buying activity. A period of consolidation is highly likely. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5235-37, 5228, 5209 (major), 5203 (major) Major Supports: 5177-79 (major), 5155 (major), 5120 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5246 (major), 5268-72 (major) Major Resistances: 5302 (major), 5326-28 (major), 5395 (major) Trading Strategy Capital Preservation Focus: After a strong multi-day rally, prioritize protecting your gains. Adopt a defensive posture and consider reducing position sizes. Limited Long Opportunities: Due to the overbought conditions and the potential for a pullback, look for very selective long entries if at all. Focus on failed breakdowns at 5228 or 5203 for potential long entries. In the event of a deeper pullback, consider buying dips at major support levels, with 5209 or failed breakdowns at 5203 offering potential opportunities. Short Opportunities: While your personal trading rules discourage shorting green candles and breaking trends, monitor back-tests of 5246 and 5268-72 for potential short entries with tight stop losses. Proceed with extreme caution. Focus on Levels and Patience: Trade the provided support and resistance levels with strict discipline. Let price action develop, be patient, avoid emotional trading, and prioritize minimizing risk exposure. Bull Case Holding Support: Defending the 5203-5209 zone remains crucial for sustaining bullish momentum. Holding above this level would indicate a continuation of the breakout, targeting 5246, then 5268-72. Ultra Bullish Scenario (Unlikely): A parabolic move overnight pushing through 5246 would be required for a continuation without a proper dip. Monitor overnight basing above 5228 and below 5246 for clues about strength. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5203 would signal a potential pullback and retest of lower supports. Monitor bounces/failed breakdowns at 5228 or 5203 for potential short entries. News: Top Stories for May 10th, 2024 Global Stock Market Trends: U.S. Market Performance: Modest gains seen in U.S. stock indices, reflecting optimism despite mixed April performance. European and Asian Market Dynamics: Positive movements noted in European and Asian markets, driven by solid economic data and central bank easing. Impact of Economic Indicators: U.S. labor market easing influences market expectations regarding potential rate cuts. Sector-Specific Movements: Technology sector experiences volatility, while energy sector sees potential stabilization. Investor Sentiment and Future Outlook: Cautious optimism prevails amid anticipation of rate cuts and easing inflation, alongside geopolitical risks and trade negotiations. Assessment of Inflation and Interest Rate Policies: Global Inflation Trends: Persistent inflationary pressures challenge central banks' efforts to meet targets. Central Banks' Stance: Cautious approach towards interest rate adjustments observed globally. Economic Implications: High interest rates may slow down consumer spending and business investments. Inflation Expectations and Future Policies: Central banks closely monitor inflation expectations to inform future policy decisions. Impact on Global Economic Stability: Corporate Financial Developments and Deals: Companies announce financial results and engage in strategic transactions, reflecting market dynamics and regulatory changes. Forward-Looking Corporate Statements: Companies adjust strategies to navigate current market conditions and regulatory environments effectively.
CME_MINI:ESM2024
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Thursday, May 9th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, May 9th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but with increasing uncertainty as the market enters a consolidation phase. Expect choppy trading within a defined range. Prioritize patience and focus on level-to-level scalping for small gains. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5203, 5194 (major) Major Supports: 5177 (major), 5155 (major), 5131-36 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5213 (major), 5219 (major), 5229-33 (major) Major Resistances: 5246 (major), 5263-66 (major) Trading Strategy Consolidation Mode: Recognize that the market has shifted from a strong trending environment to a choppy consolidation phase. Adapt your trading strategy accordingly, focusing on small gains and disciplined risk management. Long Opportunities: Focus on failed breakdowns at 5203 or 5194 for long entries. In the event of a deeper pullback, consider buying the retests of the 5177, 5155, and 5131-36 breakout zone or knife-catches for quick scalps. Short Opportunities: Due to the bullish trend and the inherent risk of shorting against strength in a bull market, avoid aggressive short positions. Monitor back-tests of 5229-33 or 5263-66 for potential short entries, targeting level-to-level profits. Focus on Levels and Patience: Trade the provided support and resistance levels with strict discipline. Let price action develop, be patient, and avoid emotional trading. Overtrading within a tight range can lead to losses. Bull Case Holding Support: Defending the 5194 level and ideally the 5131-36 breakout zone remains crucial for maintaining bullish momentum. Holding above the lower range boundary would indicate a healthy consolidation and base for potential continuation higher. Base Building and Rebound: A period of consolidation within the 5194-5219 range followed by a rebound off the lower zone would set the stage for further advances, targeting 5229-33, 5246, then 5263-66. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5194, more significantly below 5177 would signal a deeper pullback and a potential retest of the 5131-36 breakout zone. Monitor bounces/failed breakdowns at these levels for potential short entries. News: Top Stories for May 9th, 2024 Global Stock Market Trends: Varied Performance: Mixed responses observed in Asian markets; Wall Street experiences second consecutive day of lull. Influence of Geopolitical Events: Ongoing geopolitical tensions impact investor confidence and market stability. Recovery Post-COVID-19: Economic recovery contributes to increased positive correlation among global stock markets. Technological Advancements and Stock Market Analysis: Complex Network Analysis: Studies highlight increased interconnectedness among global stock markets. Geopolitical Impact: Geopolitical unrest continues to pose risks, affecting capital flows and commodity markets. Future Outlook: Predicted trends focus on sustained recovery and nuanced understanding of market interdependencies. Overview of International Trade and Currency Fluctuations: Currency Fluctuation Dynamics: Currency values influence international trade competitiveness and economic policies. Role of Economic Indicators: Inflation rates, interest rates, and GDP growth significantly affect currency valuation. Risk Management Strategies: Businesses employ hedging strategies to mitigate currency fluctuation risks. Government Policies: Monetary and fiscal policies play crucial roles in stabilizing currency values. Impact of Central Banks' Policies on Global Economy: Economic Stabilization: Central banks manipulate monetary policies to address economic fluctuations and crises. Influence on Inflation and Interest Rates: Adjustments in interest rates affect global economic conditions. Effects on Financial Markets: Central bank policies directly impact asset prices and investment flows. Response to Economic Shocks: Central banks provide monetary lifelines during economic crises to stabilize financial systems.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
Pre-Market Analysis: May 9th, 2024 $ES & $SPYMarket Observations: The S&P 500 futures NYSE:ES and S&P 500 ETF AMEX:SPY have consolidated with low volume over the past two days. Trading Strategy: Given the current range-bound price action, I am not actively seeking trades around the 5200-5210 level. Instead, I am looking for a breakout from this range accompanied by increased volume to establish a directional trend. Bullish Scenario: A sustained breakout above 5210 suggests a potential rally towards 5240. Entry: Long after a pullback that finds support above 5210. Note: Short positions may be considered if weakness emerges around 5210. Bearish Scenario: A sustained break below 5200 could lead to a decline towards 5180 and potentially 5150. Given the recent buying pressure, this decline would likely be swift. Entry: Short positions may be considered, but with limited size due to the potential for quick reversals. Overall: This analysis provides a framework for potential trading opportunities based on the current market conditions. Like and Retweet if you found this helpful! Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Quick_Edge_Stocks