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Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 2nd, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 2nd, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious, tactical trading within a range, price discovery in the context of a strong uptrend. Weekly Volatility Risk: High (price discovery in a new zone, potential chop) Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5294, 5286 (major), 5278-80 (major), 5274, 5267 (major), 5262, 5256, 5249, 5243-46 (major), 5235, 5230, 5225 (major), 5221, 5213-15 (major), 5207, 5203, 5191-95 (major), 5181, 5177, 5169-71 (major), 5162, 5150-55 (major) Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5300-02 (major), 5307 (major), 5311, 5315 (major), 5321, 5328 (major), 5337 (major), 5340, 5348, 5353 (major), 5359, 5363-66 (major), 5374, 5379, 5390 (major), 5398, 5403-05 (major), 5413, 5417, 5422, 5426, 5445 (major) Trading Strategy: Tactical Range Trading: The market appears to be in a consolidation range between 5267-5316. Focus on level-to-level trades, taking profits regularly, and adapting quickly to changing price action. Failed Breakout: The failure of the breakout above last week's high suggests a period of range-bound trading or a potential dip before resuming the uptrend. Trade accordingly. Long Opportunities: Exercise caution and consider bids at 5286, with preference for testing 5278-80 support and reclaiming today's low. Partial longs at the 5267 support are an option, with more on a potential reclaim. Below 5262, be more selective with entries, favoring major levels. Short Opportunities: Counter-trend shorting still carries significant risk within the strong uptrend context. Use extreme caution if considering shorts near major resistances. Watch for signs of a breakdown or retracement for better risk/reward entries. Target level-to-level profits. Focus on Reactions: Don't force trades, be patient, and react to price action. Bull Case Range Trading: ES could consolidate within the 5267-5316 range, building out structure before continuing the upward move towards 5328, 5337, then 5366. Level-to-level trading is key. Direct Move Higher: A decisive hold of 5285 could lead to a direct rally back to 5316, with re-tests of 5300 possible. Longs above 5300 with acceptance would be viable. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5267 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience as these setups often involve traps. First significant short target is 5262. News: Top Stories for April 2nd, 2024 Stock Market Gains: Review the positive Q1 performance of global stock markets, focusing on the S&P 500, Russell 2000, and MSCI EAFE. Discuss the bond market's challenges. Cryptocurrency Updates: Explore the anticipation surrounding the Bitcoin Cash halving and the upcoming Bitcoin halving, their historical price impact, and the overall sentiment in the crypto markets. Regulatory Scrutiny: Examine the ongoing investigation of BlackRock and Vanguard over their stakes in American banks and the implications for passive investing regulations. Economic Signals and Monetary Policies: Analyze the strong U.S. manufacturing report, its inflationary implications, and the potential impact on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. Discuss China's possible monetary policy expansion. IPO Market and Earnings Outlook: Highlight the upcoming IPOs and the start of the Q1 earnings season. Discuss expectations for financial results and their potential insights into the overall economic outlook. FOMC Meeting: Emphasize the importance of the upcoming FOMC meeting and its potential to shed light on the Fed's plans for interest rate cuts. International Economic Trends: Cover Japan's economic recovery, rising interest rates, inflation in South Korea, and Australia's balanced economic risks. Commodity Market Movements: Examine the factors influencing the palm oil market and OPEC+ output policy discussions. Remember: The market is in a range-bound phase within a larger uptrend. Be adaptable, manage risk, prioritize capital preservation, and always prioritize reacting to price action over any predictions.
CME_MINI:ESM2024
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Monday, April 1st, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, April 1st, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious, price discovery ahead of reopening after long weekend Weekly Volatility Risk: High (price discovery holiday, heightened with geopolitical backdrop) Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5307 (major), 5299-5302 (major), 5293, 5287 (major), 5280, 5275 (major), 5270, 5261, 5267, 5252 (major), 5245-47 (major), 5234, 5230, 5222 (major), 5217, 5212 (major), 5207, 5202, 5186-5191 (major), 5176, 5165-67 (major). Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5311, 5316 (major), 5321, 5326, 5329-30 (major), 5337, 5342, 5347 (major), 5351, 5355, 5358 (major), 5362, 5372, 5382 (major), 5389, 5396-5400 (major), 5407 (major), 5412, 5425, 5430, 5435-38 (major), 5445, 5451 (major) Trading Strategy: Price Discovery: After the long weekend, anticipate market moves as price discovery unfolds. Prioritize patience and focus on reacting to price action rather than predicting. Consolidation Range: Be aware that the 5300-5320 zone is a new consolidation range, likely to see choppy price action. Overtrading in this zone can be detrimental. Long Opportunities: Exercise caution with long entries over the weekend. If 5299-5302 is retested, consider bids, or, for additional confirmation, wait for the failed breakdown setup (below overnight and daily lows, then reclaim) Below that, only the major levels are of interest for longs. Short Opportunities: Counter-trend shorting on strength carries significant risk. Use extreme caution if considering shorts near major resistances. Watch for signs of a breakdown or retracement for better risk/reward entries. Focus on Reactions: Don't force trades, be patient, and react to price action. Bull Case Support Holds: As long as supports like 5299-5302 hold, bulls maintain short-term control. Range Trading: ES could consolidate within the 5302-5320 range, potentially ping-ponging within it. Breakout Continuation: A decisive break and hold above 5320 could lead to a surge towards 5329-30, then 5347. Reclaims of 5307 are areas to potentially add to longs, with disciplined profit-taking. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5299-5302 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience as these setups often involve traps. News: Top Stories for March 29th, 2024 Global Humanitarian Crises: Focus on the UNHCR appeal for aid for South Sudanese refugees, the ICJ measures for Israel, the humanitarian situation in Haiti, and the youth mobilization around the UN Summit of the Future. Climate Change Impacts: Examine the effects of climate change on Nepal's biodiversity and the resilience of communities in Madagascar despite gender-based violence. Economic Updates: Analyze the latest inflation data from the Fed's preferred PCE price index, Huawei's financial results, and Syngenta's cancellation of its Chinese IPO. Fed Policy Outlook: Consider Fed Chair Powell's commentary and the impact of the LEI on potential economic growth and the Fed's approach to interest rates. Market Sentiment: Assess market volatility surrounding the PCE report and potential risks. Remember: The market is undergoing price discovery. Be adaptable, manage risk, prioritize capital preservation, and always prioritize reacting to price action over any predictions.
CME_MINI:ESM2024
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Thursday, March 28th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, March 28th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious Weekly Volatility Risk: High Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5307, 5302, 5296-5299 (major), 5293, 5288 (major), 5284, 5280, 5274 (major), 5268-70 (major), 5265, 5258 (major), 5245-47 (major), 5240, 5235 (major), 5230, 5217, 5213-16 (major), 5208 (major), 5203, 5190-93 (major), 5178-76 (major), 5171, 5165 (major), 5155-58 (major), 5147, 5143, 5136, 5123-26 (major). Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5311, 5316 (major), 5320, 5326, 5336, 5342 (major), 5346, 5351 (major), 5360, 5364, 5372 (major), 5380-83 (major), 5388, 5395, 5403 (major), 5413, 5425-30 (major), 5445 (major) Trading Strategy: Price Discovery: After a strong surge, the market is in price discovery mode. Prioritize patience and focus on reacting to price action rather than predicting. Long Opportunities: Exercise caution with after-hours long entries: prioritize profit preservation on your existing long runner. Consider bids at 5296-5299 for a backtest, or, for additional confirmation, wait for the 5274-70 zone to be tested and reclaimed. Below that, only the major levels are of interest for longs. Short Opportunities: Counter-trend shorting on strength after a strong move carries significant risk. Use extreme caution if considering shorts near major resistances. Watch for signs of a breakdown or retracement for better risk/reward entries. Focus on Reactions: Don't force trades, be patient, and react to price action. Bull Case Support Holds: As long as supports like 5299-96 and the crucial 5274-70 zone hold, bulls maintain short-term control. Breakout Continuation: A decisive hold and test of 5299-96 could lead to a surge towards 5316, 5320, 5326, with 5342 as the first major target. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5267-70 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience as these setups often involve traps. News: Top Stories for March 28th, 2024 U.S. Economy Outlook: Analysts provide insights on the U.S. economy's resilience, potential for soft landing, and the Fed's possible rate adjustments in late 2024. Stock Market Performance: The S&P 500's recent gains, fueled by strong corporate earnings and optimistic investor sentiment. Global Economic Updates: Updates on the economic conditions of the Eurozone, the U.K., and emerging markets, including growth projections from Vanguard. Corporate Earnings Updates: Focus on financial results and guidance from companies like Sharecare, Janover Inc., and Medigene AG. Stock Market Trends: Wall Street's positive reaction to the Fed's recent dovish comments and expectations for continued market gains. Review Indian equity market performance. F&O Ban List: Securities facing F&O ban and their potential impact on trading activity. Market Forecasts: Analyze market sentiment, gold and Bitcoin price trends, and potential cybersecurity investments. Remember: The market is undergoing price discovery. Be adaptable, manage risk, prioritize capital preservation, and always prioritize reacting to price action over any predictions.
CME_MINI:ESM2024
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Wednesday, March 27th, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, March 27th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious Weekly Volatility Risk: High Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5266 (major), 5258, 5247 (major), 5242, 5233-36 (major), 5221, 5213, 5206-10 (major), 5198, 5188-91 (major), 5181, 5172, 5167-69 (major), 5162, 5153-55 (major), 5146, 5137, 5126 (major), 5119 (major), 5109 Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5274 (major), 5281, 5286-88 (major), 5293, 5299 (major), 5305 (major), 5311, 5315, 5318-20 (major), 5328, 5336-38 (major), 5345 (major), 5354, 5365 (major), 5372, 5380 (major), 5392, 5399 (major), 5408 (major), 5416 (major), 5425, 5432, 5440-44 (major), 5448, 5457 (major) Trading Strategy: Support & Resistance: Watch for potential bounces on support levels 5266, 5247 (triangle backtest), or a deeper pullback to 5242. For shorts, look higher towards 5286-88 or the 5299 zone after a strong move up. Long Opportunities: Consider longs only on strong reactions to support levels, ideally with confirmed failed breakdowns for added safety. Short Opportunities: If considering shorts, strong moves up followed by signs of weakness near resistance zones could be potential areas. Focus on Reactions: Be adaptable – volatility can create opportunities and traps with equal measure. Bull Case Support Holds: As long as supports like 5266, then particularly the triangle backtest at 5247 hold, bulls maintain short-term control. Breakout potential: A decisive breakout above the flag pattern's resistance around the 5300 zone could lead to a surge towards 5318-20 and potentially new highs. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5266 followed by continued selling could trigger a move downwards. Look for potential shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces with extremely tight stops due to FOMC volatility. . News: Top Stories for March 27th, 2024 Regulatory Response to Bank Runs: Federal Reserve and regulatory officials prepare to announce new rules designed to prevent future bank crises, addressing lessons learned from last year's turmoil. Economic Outlook: Recent CPI data, comments from industry leaders and analysts provide insights into inflation trends, monetary policy expectations, and the global economic outlook. Market Performance and Expectations: A cautious outlook for 2024 due to various factors including geopolitical risks and monetary headwinds. Corporate News: Updates on legal settlements, management changes, and stock market debuts affecting companies like Visa, Mastercard, Boeing, and Truth Social. Legal Issues in Crypto: U.S. prosecutors file criminal charges against KuCoin exchange and its founders. Currency and Interest Rates: Tracking movements in the Japanese Yen and potential actions by the Swedish Riksbank.
CME_MINI:ESM2024
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Tuesday, March 26th, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, March 26th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious, consolidation after rally Weekly Volatility Risk: High Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5274-76 (major), 5267, 5263 (major), 5257, 5247-51 (major), 5243, 5235, 5228 (major), 5221, 5217, 5212, 5200-03 (major), 5194, 5190 (major), 5179, 5171, 5167 (major), 5163, 5152-55 (major), 5147, 5137, 5126 (major), 5115 (major). Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5281, 5288 (major), 5292, 5299-5303 (major), 5307, 5311, 5316 (major), 5320, 5329, 5337 (major), 5346, 5351, 5356 (major), 5364, 5371, 5380, 5386 (Major), 5392, 5408 (major), 5416, 5426, 5434-37 (major), 5443-5446 (major). Trading Strategy: Tight Range: Be prepared for continued choppy trading within the range defined by the multi-day flag structure. Trade with caution and focus on range-bound strategies or consider sitting out. Flag Structure: Observe the bull flag structure with support around 5274-76 and resistance near 5288 and the 5300 zone. A decisive breakout or breakdown could provide a clearer directional signal. Long Opportunities: Look for potential long entries at 5274-76, particularly after a retest and reclaim. If this level fails, be extremely cautious about longs and consider bids only at major support levels like 5263 and 5247-51 (triangle back-test). Watch for failed breakdowns for added confirmation. Short Opportunities: Counter-trend shorting on strength carries significant risk, particularly within the flag structure. Use extreme caution if considering shorts near 5288 or the 5300 zone. Watch for signs of a breakdown or retracement for better risk/reward entries. Focus on Reactions: Don't force trades, be patient, and react to price action. Let price discovery unfold within this consolidation pattern. Bull Case Flag Breakout: A breakout above the bull flag resistance around 5288 and further above 5300 could signal a continuation of the uptrend, targeting 5316, 5338, and ultimately 5350+. Support Holds: As long as 5274-76 holds, the bulls remain in short-term control. Look for potential add-on points if a breakout occurs, preferably after acceptance or a failed breakdown. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5274-76 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience as these setups often involve traps. News: Top Stories for March 26th, 2024 GameStop Earnings: Focus on the GameStop earnings report and its potential impact on the stock market and meme stock sentiment. Federal Reserve Updates: Stay informed about the Federal Reserve's interest rate plans and their impact on market sentiment, particularly concerns about a potential market crash. Global Economic Developments: Monitor updates on economic conditions in Germany, the U.S. housing market, and the China-U.S. trade dispute. U.S. Economy: Analysis of the U.S. economy's resilience, and the implications for the Fed's possible rate cut plans. Stock Market Performance: Track stock market movements, including updates on the Sensex, the Nifty, and the impact of new home sales data in the U.S. Banking and Regulations: Examine the impact of Basel III regulations on the APAC banking sector and the outlook for emerging markets. U.S. Fiscal Policy: Consider the CBO's warnings about rising U.S. federal debt and the increasing cost of debt servicing. Remember: The market is consolidating after a strong rally. Be adaptable, manage risk, prioritize capital preservation, and always prioritize reacting to price action over any predictions.
CME_MINI:ESM2024
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Monday, March 25th, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, March 25th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious, watching key support levels after the rally Weekly Volatility Risk: High Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5284-88 (major), 5276, 5259 (major), 5245-48 (major), 5236, 5230, 5219-21 (major), 5213, 5208, 5200-5197 (major), 5191, 5186, 5177, 5168-71 (major), 5163, 5155, 5145 (major) Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5295, 5302 (major), 5307 (major), 5313, 5320, 5328 (major), 5338, 5348 (major), 5355, 5363-66 (major), 5380, 5389, 5396-5400 (major), 5412, 5428 (major), 5438-42 (major), 5450, 5460-63 (major) Trading Strategy: Choppy Range: Be prepared for potential choppiness within the 5302-5288 range. Trade with caution and focus on range-bound strategies if this pattern persists. Flag Structure: Observe the bull flag structure that has formed since Thursday. A decisive breakout or breakdown could provide a clearer directional signal. Long Opportunities: Look for potential long entries at 5284-88, particularly after a retest and reclaim. If this level fails, be extremely cautious about longs and consider bids only at major support levels like 5259 and 5245-48 (triangle back-test). Short Opportunities: Counter-trend shorting on strong up moves carries significant risk. Use extreme caution if considering shorts near major resistances. Watch for signs of a breakdown or retracement, and focus on 5307 and potentially 5348 if we get that far. Focus on Reactions: Don't force trades, be patient, and react to price action. Let price discovery unfold after the rally. Bull Case Flag Breakout: A breakout above the bull flag resistance around 5307 could signal a continuation of the uptrend, targeting 5320, 5338, then 5348. Support Holds: As long as 5284-88 holds as support, the bulls remain in short-term control. Look for potential add-on points if 5307 breaks out, preferably after acceptance or a failed breakdown. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5284 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience as these setups often involve traps. News: Top Stories for March 25th, 2024 Federal Reserve Updates: Analysis of the Fed's latest interest rate decision, economic projections, and implications for future monetary policy. Focus on how market expectations for rate cuts in 2024 may have shifted, and the continued focus on inflation data. Inflation and Economic Data: Discussion of the latest CPI figures, job market data, and their potential impact on the Fed's approach to managing inflation. Market Reactions: Examine how global markets have reacted to the Fed's decisions, including equity indices, treasury yields, and the dollar's performance. Global Economic Outlook: Updates from Vanguard on economic expectations, contrasting the U.S. with trends in the Eurozone and U.K. Lessons from Bank Failures: Reflect on the lessons learned from recent stress in regional banks and discuss implications for the financial system's overall stability. Energy Transition: Analysis of the challenges and opportunities in the electrification of energy markets. Stock Market Sentiment: Review market sentiment after the Fed decision and the potential for near-term changes. Remember: The market might be consolidating after a strong rally. Be adaptable, manage risk, prioritize capital preservation, and always prioritize reacting to price action over any predictions.
CME_MINI:ESM2024
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Friday, March 22nd, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, March 22nd, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious, watching key support levels Weekly Volatility Risk: High Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5302 (major), 5298, 5286, 5282-79 (major), 5275, 5257, 5246-49 (major), 5236 (major), 5231, 5225, 5218 (major), 5212, 5208 (major), 5203, 5191-94 (major), 5179, 5169-71 (major), 5162, 5153-55 (major), 5147, 5136 (major), 5123-26 (major), 5115, 5108 (major), 5102, 5092, 5077-82 (major) Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5308, 5320 (major), 5331, 5337-39 (major), 5347, 5350-5354 (major), 5362, 5374, 5381, 5385-90 (major), 5400, 5413, 5425-30 (major) Trading Strategy: Support Testing: The market is likely to test key support levels after the rally. Prioritize capital preservation and be watchful for potential bounce plays. Long Opportunities: Look for potential long entries at 5302 (after retest and reclaim), 5282-79, or the triangle backtest at 5246-49. Avoid aggressive longs if the triangle backtest fails. Short Opportunities: Counter-trend shorting on strong up moves carries significant risk. Use extreme caution if considering shorts near major resistances. Watch for signs of a breakdown or retracement for better risk/reward entries. Focus on Reactions: Don't force trades, be patient, and react to price action. Let price discovery unfold after the rally. Bull Case Triangle Backtest Hold: Bulls maintain control as long as the 5246-49 triangle backtest holds. A bounce here, particularly if it extends to the 5282-79 zone, provides a strong entry for a move back towards the 5320 resistance. Basing and Building: Bulls could base above 5302 after a retracement, creating the potential for further upside moves. Watch for flagging in this zone for potential upside. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5302 and especially below the 5251-47 triangle backtest could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience as these setups often involve traps. News: Top Stories for March 22nd, 2024 Global Economic Developments: Labor market developments in Germany, housing market indicators in the U.S., the Panama Canal's financial performance, and the global semiconductor industry. Federal Reserve Updates: The impact of the Fed's latest interest rate decision and economic forecasts. Inflation and Jobs: Analysis of the latest job market data and inflation trends, and their implications for the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy actions. International Markets: Updates on foreign direct investment in China, German business sentiment, inflation in Japan, and the Australian economy's response to interest rate pressures. Legislative Updates (U.S.): Developments regarding the U.S. spending bill and geopolitical concerns surrounding the CHIPS grant in Arizona. Indian Equity Markets: Analysis of recent movements in the Indian markets, including IT, auto sector news, and performance of the Sensex and Nifty. Corporate News: Stock market reactions to company announcements, such as news from Larsen and Toubro and IDFC FIRST Bank. Outlook on Accenture and other tech stocks. IPO and Stock Market Updates: Discussion of how Reddit's IPO performance may impact the overall market sentiment and encourage other companies to go public. Remember: The market is likely in a price discovery phase. Be adaptable, manage risk, and react to price action rather than predicting.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Thursday, March 21st, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, March 21st, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious, price discovery after breakout Weekly Volatility Risk: High (potentially elevated due to price discovery post-breakout) Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5275-80 (major), 5266-68, 5260, 5251 (major), 5246, 5236, 5231, 5221-26 (major), 5217, 5212 (major), 5200-02 (major), 5196, 5189-91 (major) ,5178, 5169 (major), 5162, 5155 (major), 5147, 5136 (major), 5126-29 (major), 5116, 5109, 5103 (major), 5095, 5091, 5079-82 (major) Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5285, 5295-5300 (major), 5315 (major), 5330 (major), 5339, 5345, 5352 5360, 5369, 5376-81 (major), 5389, 5405, 5423, 5428-32 (major) Trading Strategy: Price Discovery Mode Post-Breakout Caution: The parabolic rally yesterday makes today a less favorable environment for aggressive trading. Exercise caution, as setups are likely to be less reliable. Prioritize capital preservation. Long Opportunities: Watch for potential long entries at 5275-80 or after a dip and reclaim (to 5273 or 5268). Target a retest of the 5295 resistance if we haven't tagged it yet. The backtest of the triangle breakout zone at 5251-46 is interesting but carries more risk. Short Opportunities: Counter-trend shorting on strong up moves carries significant risk. Use extreme caution if considering shorts near major resistances. Focus on Reactions: Don't force trades, be patient, and react to price action. Let price discovery unfold after the breakout. Bull Case Breakout Continuation: The triangle breakout, as long as the 5251-47 zone holds, targets a move towards 5295-5300, then 5315 and potentially up to 5330. Basing and Building: Bulls could base above 5275 after a bullish leg, creating the potential for further upside moves. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5251-47 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience as these setups often involve traps. News: Top Stories for March 21st, 2024 Fed Rate Decision: Fed holds rates steady and projects three cuts this year. March 2024 Market Outlook: Analysts provide insights and forecasts on the global economy, equities, interest rates, and upcoming financial events. Corporate Earnings Updates: Companies like Borregaard ASA and Affimed N.V. release their financial reports, detailing performance and future guidance. Bank of America Reporting Schedule: Investors have access to the financial reporting dates for Bank of America in 2024. AI and Market Sentiment Some analysts express skepticism about the sustainability of the AI-driven rally and the extent to which it reflects actual revenue growth. Global Economic Developments: Central banks in Switzerland and Russia make interest rate adjustments, impacting currency markets. Financial Trends for 2024: Focus on sustainable investing, digital assets, AI and automation, cybersecurity, and financial literacy. Remember: The market is undergoing price discovery after the breakout. Be adaptable, manage risk, and react to price action rather than predicting.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 03.17 - 03.22Last Week : Last Sunday we discussed that failing over HTF Edge usually can bring in weakness and start transacting back through lower areas towards the lower Edge but also mentioned that we were in potential 5150 - 5250 +/- balance with 5204.25 - 5199.75 area being a temp mean which told us to be careful expecting too much continuation lower just yet. Monday gave a test of VAH and Key Support under it which held and gave a push back through the Edge for a consolidation above it. From there to end the week we needed to either accept over inside/over VAL of New range or we could see price return back to the Edge. Thursday we got failure at VAL with a return back to the Edge and Friday to finish off the week we found selling at the Edge top and were able to get through the Edge to close the week at VAH area. This Week : This week we are currently inside 5204 - 5154 Range, we are under the Edge and have more Supply built up above us this time around. Yes we are still in this 5250 - 5150 balance which may continue holding for now but we do have more Supply above us now and we are seeing more signs of trend this time on 4hr TF which we weren't seeing last week. IF we continue holding under the Edge that will mean continued weakness and if we either build up enough supply over VAH or more sell volume comes in to take it out it could start the move towards lower VAL. We have Fed on Wednesday and bigger market moving events Thursday/Friday so the question is will we hold first couple days and try to balance more in Current Range or do we try to make a move early in the week and then do clean up after ? As mentioned last week usually failures or u turns at Key HTF Edges will send the price opposite way towards previous VAH / VAL and Edge destinations, last week it was sketchy because of how things were set up but this week we may actually get it. We still have short covering every time we make a move lower which means still have to be careful and take it level to level or range at time because it may take its time as so far we have kind of been getting stair case down moves with holds/pull backs which traps more new buyers, but continuation lower is something to watch for. For us to attempt a move at the highs and new HTF Ranges Value again we would need to continue holding above the Mean/VAH area and accept back inside the Edge with a good push over 5219-15 area, for now Supply is trapped above and may start selling out lower. Levels to Watch : Current Intrarange Resistance 5188.25 - 84.50 // Key Resistance 5204.25 - 5199.75 IF Accepts in Edge would need to get through 5219.75 - 15.75 to attempt higher targets. Current Intrarange Support 5174.25 - 70.50 Key Support 5159.25 - 54.25 Under could see continuation through the Mean targeting 5144 - 40.25 // 5129 - 25 This would be our VAL area and Key Support for any continuation towards the lower Edge would be 5112.50 - 5107.50
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Trading Plan for Wednesday, March 20th, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, March 20th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Extremely cautious ahead of FOMC decision Weekly Volatility Risk: Extremely High (FOMC) Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5236, 5230, 5220-17 (major), 5212, 5209 (major), 5202, 5196, 5192 (major), 5184, 5169-71 (major), 5162, 5155-57 (major), 5147, 5137 (major), 5126 (major), 5117, 5100-03 (major), 5091, 5075-80 (major), 5069, 5056 (major), 5050, 5043 (major), 5038, 5032, 5020-25 (major), 5014, 5010 (major), 5000, 4995 (major) Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5246-49 (major), 5258, 5265, 5276-80 (major), 5295-5300 (major), 5308 (major), 5317, 5323 (major), 5330, 5338, 5352, 5358, 5365-70 (major), 5384, 5395, 5406-11 (major) Trading Strategy: FOMC Extreme Caution FOMC Volatility: The FOMC decision is the dominant factor today. Expect unpredictable market swings and heightened volatility. Prioritize capital preservation above all else. Triangle Pattern: The triangle pattern with resistance at 5246-50 and support around 5184 remains in play. FOMC is likely to trigger a breakout or breakdown. Long Opportunities: (High Risk) FOMC-related dips present potential long opportunities, but only with extremely cautious sizing. Consider targeting 5220-17 first, and even then, only if it shows a failed breakdown and reclaim. In a severe melt-down scenario, watch for failed breakdown setups around major supports. Short Opportunities: (High Risk) Counter-trend shorting on FOMC days is extremely risky. If considering shorts, the 5295-5300 zone, after a strong move up, could be one potential area. Focus on Reactions: Don't predict FOMC outcomes, focus on reacting to price action post-decision. Bull Case Triangle Breakout: A decisive breakout above the triangle resistance at 5246-50 could lead to targets at 5258, 5276-80, and then the 5295-300 zone. Be wary of traps on any strong moves post-FOMC. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below the triangle support at 5184 could trigger significant selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise extreme caution and patience in a fast-moving market. News: Top Stories for March 20th, 2024 FOMC Decision: The Federal Reserve concludes its March meeting, with a decision on interest rates expected at 2 PM ET, followed by a press conference with Chair Jerome Powell. Focus is on the Fed's outlook, updated economic projections, and any guidance on the timing and pace of potential rate cuts and how data will determine those decisions. Market Volatility: Expect unpredictable market swings around the FOMC decision, with the potential for large gains or losses. Economic Outlook: Recent economic indicators, the latest CPI figures, and concerns about recession risks will be closely watched alongside the Fed's announcements and commentary. Intel Investment Boost: Intel receives a major investment, boosting the company and its stock. EU Regulatory Vote Delayed: The EU delays the vote on a nature restoration law due to concerns and farmer protests. Remember: The FOMC decision has the potential to cause extreme market volatility, whipsaws are likely. Be extremely adaptable, prioritize capital preservation, and focus on managing risk today above all else.
CME_MINI:ESM2024
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Tuesday, March 19th, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, March 19th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious ahead of FOMC decision Weekly Volatility Risk: High (amplified by FOMC) Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5209, 5203 (major), 5191, 5182-77 (major support/triangle), 5171, 5165, 5157-55 (major), 5147, 5136, 5124-26 (major), 5115 (major), 5109, 5103, 5095 (major), 5087, 5083 (major), 5076 (major), 5072, 5066, 5060, 5055 (major) Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5215-20 (major), 5230, 5236 (major), 5246-50 (major - triangle resistance), 5257, 5264, 5270, 5275-77 (major), 5283, 5295-5300 (major), 5306, 5313 (major), 5326, 5333, 5340, 5355, 5362-66 (major), 5370, 5377, 5385, 5395 (major), 5400-5405 (major) Trading Strategy: FOMC Focus Holding Pattern: The market might be on hold until the FOMC announcement, so pre-announcement moves may lack conviction. Triangle Trading: The triangle setup with resistance at 5246-50 and support around 5182-77 defines the range for today. Profit-taking at each end of the range is advisable. Long Opportunities: Look for potential long entries at 5203 (especially if it's a major support test). Below that, interest in longs arises at the triangle support (5182-77). Avoid aggressive longs below 5182-77 with more substantial sell-offs possible. Short Opportunities (For experienced traders): Watch for short entries on failed breakdowns or bounces off resistance. FOMC Volatility: Expect increased volatility during and after the FOMC announcement. Bull Case Triangle Support: Bulls need to defend the triangle support at 5182-77. Holding above this level allows for a potential retest of 5245-50 resistance within the triangle. Building a Base: Overnight basing below 5215-20 and above 5202/5209 support suggests potential for an upside move. Breakout Potential: A decisive breakout above the triangle resistance at 5246-50, likely post-FOMC, could lead to targets at 5275-77 and then the 5295-5300 zone. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below the triangle support at 5182-77 could trigger significant selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Cascading Sell-off: If 5202 support fails, a deeper test of the triangle support is possible, potentially leading to a more severe correction. News: Top Stories for March 19th, 2024 FOMC Decision: The Federal Reserve concludes its March meeting, with a decision on interest rates expected at 2 PM ET, followed by a press conference with Chair Jerome Powell. Focus is on the Fed's outlook, dot plot projections, and any hints on the timing of potential rate cuts Banking Concerns: Economists warn of a potential new banking crisis triggered by the end of the Federal Reserve's BTFP program and potential geopolitical disruptions to credit markets. Economic Outlook: Recent economic indicators suggest a mixed picture. Fourth-quarter GDP growth was impressive, while the Conference Board's leading economic index signals a potential slowdown. Market Performance: Market volatility could spike around the FOMC decision. Long-term investors are focused on the Fed's interest rate path and its impact on earnings and valuations. Global Trends: The end of the negative interest rate era, the decline in North American Pay TV subscribers, and strategic CFO priorities highlight key global shifts. Remember: The FOMC decision has the potential to cause significant market volatility. Be prepared to adapt your trading strategy accordingly, prioritize capital preservation, and focus on managing risk.
CME_MINI:ESM2024
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Monday, March 18th, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, March 18th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious, watching key support levels Weekly Volatility Risk: High Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5171-73 (major), 5167, 5162, 5152-55 (major), 5147, 5136, 5127 (major), 5115 (major), 5109, 5104, 5092 (major), 5083 (major). Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5181, 5191, 5202 (major), 5207, 5213 (major), 5220-24 (major), 5230, 5236, 5246-51 (major), 5260, 5267 (major), 5280, 5285, 5294 (major), 5300, 5304 (major), 5315, 5320-22 (major), 5332, 5340, 5345, 5354-57 (major) Trading Strategy: Pivot Point: The 5171-73 support (white trendline) is crucial. A potential bounce is possible, but exercise caution as significant selling pressure could develop if this level fails. Long Opportunities: Look for buying opportunities on a bounce or reclaim of 5171-73. The 5152-55 major support is the last line of defense for bulls. Avoid aggressive longs below that level. Look for entries around 5115 or 5127 only if they show strong signs of a rebound. Short Opportunities (For experienced traders): Watch for short entries on failed breakdowns or bounces off resistance. Knife Catching Caution: Avoid impulsive buys deep into red candles on violent sell-offs. Treat them as short-term, smaller position trades. Bull Case Support Defense: Bulls need to hold the 5171-73 trendline, with ideally no further tests. A bounce here, particularly if it extends to the 5152-55 zone, provides a low-risk entry for a move back towards resistance at 5202/5207. Building a Base: Overnight basing below 5191 and above the 5170s support suggests potential upside for a move to 5202/5207. Path to New Highs: A successful defense of the trendline and subsequent move through resistance zones could lead to fresh all-time highs. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5171 could trigger significant selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience here as breakdowns are often tricky and require skilled execution. Cascading Sell-off: If the 5152-55 major support fails, a deeper, more severe correction is possible. News: Top Stories for March 18th, 2024 Taiwan's Defense Strategy: Taiwan weighs investing in smaller, cheaper weaponry to counter potential invasion threats from China. Goldman Sachs Departure: The exit of a senior executive at Goldman Sachs signals potential internal shifts within the company. Middle East Conflict: Israel's raid on a hospital in Gaza risks escalating tensions in the region. Retail Challenges: Joann's bankruptcy highlights the ongoing difficulties faced by traditional retailers in the current consumer landscape. European Defense Stocks: The value of European defense stocks is fluctuating based on political rhetoric and policy shifts. FedEx-Amazon Partnership: Possible collaboration under discussion could reshape logistics and e-commerce dynamics. Fed Policy Outlook: The Federal Reserve's latest report highlights potential vulnerabilities due to leverage and high stock valuations. No rate cuts are expected until the Fed is confident inflation is under control. Bank Regulation Debate: A year after financial instability, regulators prepare new rules while facing industry criticism. Labor Market Update: Continued strength in the US job market puts factors into play the Fed will consider in its interest rate decisions. Inflation and Consumer Spending: The paradox of resilient consumer spending despite high inflation is a key focus of economists and policymakers. Additional Factors: Keep an eye on Nvidia's GTC Conference, updates on Indian markets, scrutiny of Adani Group, and shifts in startup financing trends. Remember: Prioritize capital preservation during this time of uncertainty. Be prepared for potential volatility and adapt your trading strategy accordingly.
CME_MINI:ESM2024
by spytradingpro
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 03.10 - 03.15 Last Week : Last week market opened inside Value, first cleared upper stops then got a nice sell from 5154.25 - 59.25 Key Resistance area back down to VAL, cleared that Support and got continuation back inside lower Edge taking all the lower stops except the pinata stops at Key Edge Support of 5066.50 - 60.75. Lower Edge ended up holding and we got a push back inside Value where we pretty much spent Friday. We did make a push above VAH which was met with selling and we ended up closing back inside Value. I have rolled my contract so Friday was trading new contract which opened up at the above Edge, made a push to next VAL and as mentioned that was a good target for that day as we can see profit taking in those above areas going into the weekend which gave a nice sell back under the Edge towards VAH. This Week : This week can be tricky to try and guess for multiple reasons, it's Opex week, we are going through contract roll, we are around KEY HTF Area and of course plenty of data dropping as well. But at least we can have a what IF game plan to go into it and see how the week develops. Usually if you see a Failure over HTF Edge like we had on new contract Friday that could bring in weakness and give a move back down to previous ranges VAH / Mean / VAL and Lower Edge, which we could get BUT because old contract closed inside Value, new contract is currently inside this 5150 - 5250 potential balance area over VAH and higher time frames like 4hr / Daily are not showing trend change just yet which tells us we have to be careful forcing for that as market may hold and let things catch up while we digest another big move without giving that bigger sell that everyone keeps expecting. I will be taking this week level to level range by range unless it shows bigger moves are ready to happen which you could continue catching level to level anyway. New contract is currently inside 5199.75 - 5159.25 Range, we have trapped Supply over the Edge which could keep us under for time being but also failed to get inside or tag VAH from above on Friday which is telling us that there is buying which could give holds over and maybe smaller ranges again ? To see upside from here we would need to take out Current Key Resistance at 5204.25 - 5199.75 and for any continuation above we would have to get through Edge top as our Supply is above. Current Support will be our VAH top at 5188.25 - 84.50 - 82.50 area which we would need to get through to try and make a push back inside Value towards the mean. This 5204.25 - 5199.75 could act as temporary mean and we can see balancing around this Edge/VAH area until market will be ready to move again. Levels to Watch : Current Key Resistance 5207.50 5204.25 - 5199.75 Targets above 5219.75 - 15.75 // Would need to accept above to attempt a move past 5227 into 5234.25 - 30.25 Next Key Resistance 5249.75 - 5244.75 need to get over for attempt at new Value. Current Intrarange Support 5188.25 - 84.50 Targets below 5174.25 - 5170.50 // Key Support for anything lower 5159.25 - 54.25 IF Stronger sell volume does come in we can watch for continuation towards VAL.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Trading Plan for Friday, March 15th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, March 15th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious on OPEX Friday Weekly Volatility Risk: High (amplified by OPEX) Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5213 (major), 5207, 5200 (major), 5196, 5192 (major), 5181, 5176, 5165 (major), 5160, 5152, 5146 (major), 5141, 5136, 5126, 5119, 5109-11 (major), 5102, 5091 (major), 5086-88 (major). Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5221 (major), 5229-32 (major), 5236, 5240, 5246, 5251 (major), 5257, 5264, 5269, 5278, 5287 (major), 5294-96 (major), 5308, 5315 (major), 5326, 5337, 5343 (major), 5352 (major), 5362, 5375-80 (major) Trading Strategy: OPEX Caution OPEX Volatility: Expect potential chop and poor follow-through due to options expiration dynamics. Exercise increased caution and prioritize capital preservation. Limited Positions: Reduce position sizes or consider sitting out the majority of the day. Avoid impulsive overtrading. Watch Out for Chop: The zone between 5192 and 5230 is particularly messy. Trade with extreme care within this range. Support Focus: Watch 5213 and 5200 for potential bounce plays, however, these zones are heavily used up and may not offer reliable setups. Long Opportunity: Look for longs around 5192 (the last major support before a steeper sell-off). Avoid longs below 5165. Bull Case OPEX Range: Expect a potential ugly range trade between 5192 (lowest support) and 5230. A successful defense of supports would set up a breakout towards 5251 and further toward the 5290s. Overnight Strength: If overnight trading shows basing below 5220, consider potential upside towards the next resistance level. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5191 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces, ideally after a test of 5191. News: Top Stories for March 15th, 2024 Stock Market Rally: The S&P 500 continues its upward momentum, driven by strong fundamentals, earnings growth, particularly in the tech sector (AI stocks), and investor optimism for a Fed soft landing. Interest Rate Outlook: The Federal Reserve maintains its current interest rate policy but signals potential rate cuts later in the year. Mixed Economic Data: Economic indicators show both strength and pockets of weakness. GDP growth remains impressive, while inflation data suggests challenges in the Fed's fight to control prices. Banking Regulations: One year after bank run concerns, regulators prepare new rules to mitigate future financial instability. Corporate Debt Concerns: Corporate defaults rise, highlighting the strain of inflation and high interest rates on riskier borrowers. Private Equity Expansion: Private equity giants expand into consumer debt markets, potentially impacting household financial health. Inflation Updates: The CPI and Core CPI remain critical for understanding inflation trends and potential Federal Reserve rate changes. Global Risks: Monitor ongoing geopolitical tensions, climate risks, technological disruption, and election-related uncertainties for impacts on global markets. CFO Trends: Focus on digital transformation, strategic planning with AI/automation, and balanced growth strategies. Energy Transition: Challenges in the transition to net-zero energy become evident as major players face hurdles. Remember: Options Expiration (OPEX) can cause unpredictable market behavior. Trade with reduced risk, prioritize capital preservation, and be prepared for rapid shifts in direction. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Consult a professional financial advisor for trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ESH2024
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Thursday, March 14th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, March 14th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious, watching for breakout direction Weekly Volatility Risk: High Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5230-28 (major), 5220, 5213, 5202-07 (major), 5191, 5180-83 (major), 5167, 5162, 5156 (major), 5148, 5144, 5136, 5126 (major), 5115, 5108, 5103, 5088-91 (major), 5083 (major), 5076, 5071, 5067 (major), 5060, 5053, 5048 (major). Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5235, 5245 (major), 5257 (major), 5265, 5280 (major), 5287-90 (major), 5300, 5306, 5314, 5327, 5335 (major), 5340, 5346 (major), 5354, 5363-65 (major), 5374 (major), 5380, 5391 (major) Trading Strategy: Consolidation Zone: Price action between 5230 and 5245 indicates a new consolidation range. Exercise caution with overtrading within this range. Look for breakouts or breakdowns for clearer directional cues. Support Focus: Watch for potential long opportunities at 5230-28 (after a dip and reclaim) and 5220 (if today's low holds and reclaims). For aggressive traders, major supports like 5202, 5183, and 5156 offer potential bounce areas for catching points on a larger sell-off. Counter-trend Caution: (For experienced traders): Shorting green candles is risky. If a breakout above 5245 occurs, watch for short entries around the 5280-90 zone. Patience is Key: Prioritize capital preservation and wait for high-conviction setups. Bull Case: Flag Structure: Current price action could be forming a bull flag. Defending 5230 and 5220 supports keeps this scenario alive, targeting a potential breakout towards 5257, 5265, 5280, and the 5287-90 zone. Adding within Flags: Monitor for reclaims of 5235, indicating strength within the consolidation with the potential for another test of 5245. Bear Case: Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5220 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces, ideally after a test of 5220. News: Top Stories for March 14th, 2024 U.S.-China Deal: The quiet extension of a bilateral agreement between the U.S. and China underscores ongoing complex diplomatic and trade relations. Chip Manufacturing Contrasts: Delays in a U.S. chip plant contrasted with Japan's on-schedule progress highlight the challenges and global dynamics in the semiconductor industry. Gaza Economic Crisis: Surging inflation in Gaza puts further strain on residents, particularly due to the dramatic price increase for essential goods. Immigration Impact: Post-pandemic urban growth in the U.S. is significantly driven by immigration, reshaping demographics and economic landscapes. TikTok Scrutiny: The U.S. House of Representatives takes a step towards potentially banning or forcing the sale of TikTok, citing national security concerns. Retail Landscape: Family Dollar's planned closures signal changes in the retail sector due to shifting consumer behavior. Labor Market Update: The robust U.S. job market adds 275K positions, a factor as the Fed weighs interest rate decisions. Additional Factors: Keep an eye on the upcoming PPI data, oil market dynamics, and Robinhood's surging trading volume for potential market implications.
CME_MINI:ESH2024
by spytradingpro
3/13 Wednesday Trading PlanTrading Plan for Wednesday, March 13th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bullish Weekly Volatility Risk: High Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5235, 5230, 5221 (major), 5214, 5207 (major), 5202, 5196, 5191 (major), 5181, 5175 (major), 5167, 5162, 5155 (major), 5148 (major), 5137 (major), 5125, 5115 (major), 5109, 5103, 5097, 5090 (major), 5082, 5077-80 (major), 5070, 5060 (Major), 5056, 5045-47 (major), 5038, 5026, 5018-20 (major), 5012, 5000 (major), 4990, 4982 (major). Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5242 (major), 5254, 5257, 5274-78 (major), 5283, 5290 (major), 5297, 5309, 5315, 5326 (major), 5331, 5341, 5345, 5355 (major), 5366 (major). Trading Strategy: Post Trend-Leg Caution: After the significant rally, short-term setups are less clear. Exercise caution with both longs (chasing, rug pull risk) and shorts (against the dominant trend). Let price discovery unfold before forcing trades. Support Focus: Watch for potential long opportunities at 5235, 5221, and particularly 5207. Look for reclaims or failed breakdown setups for stronger entries. Short Opportunities (For experienced traders): Consider shorts on confirmed breakdowns below 5207 or bounces off the 5274-78, and 5290 resistance areas. Patience is Key: Prioritize capital preservation and wait for high-conviction entries. Bull Case: Trend Continuation: The overall bull trend remains strong. Defending 5220 and 5207 supports paves the way towards new highs at 5254, 5274-78, and the 5290 macro magnet. Adding within Flags: Monitor for potential bull flags overnight between 5242 and 5230. Consider adding positions within a well-formed flag if a major new high is not made. Bear Case: Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5207 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns, ideally after a bounce. News: Top Stories for March 13th, 2024 Economic Outlook: Despite President Biden's cautious economic forecasts in November, recent progress suggests a stronger outlook. Economists are predicting faster growth, lower inflation, and continued job creation. Housing Initiatives: President Biden's proposed initiatives to reduce housing costs aim to ease affordability challenges caused by inflation and high-interest rates. Cryptocurrency Trends: Meme coins are surging, while electric vehicle stocks see mixed analyst opinions highlighting the volatility of these sectors. Gold's Safe Haven: Amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, the record-high gold price reflects its appeal as a safe-haven investment. Interest Rate Debate: Speculation continues around the timing of potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ESH2024
by spytradingpro
3/12 Tuesday Trading PlanTrading Plan for Tuesday, March 12th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious Weekly Volatility Risk: High Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5181 (major), 5176, 5168 (major), 5163, 5155, 5149, 5140 (major), 5136, 5126 (major), 5115, 5110, 5103 (major), 5092-95 (major), 5082, 5077 (major), 5067, 5056, 5047, 5038-41 (major) Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5187, 5198, 5202 (major), 5212, 5220 (major), 5230, 5238, 5248-50 (major), 5262, 5267-70 (major), 5279, 5288-90 (major), 5297, 5305, 5314-16 (major), 5324, 5336 (major), 5344 (major) Trading Strategy: CPI Volatility: The recent CPI data release suggests hotter-than-expected inflation. Approach Tuesday's trading with heightened caution, reduced position sizes, and anticipate the potential for large swings and sudden reversals. Re-evaluate Supports: The CPI data indicates increased potential for a more substantial market pullback. Reassess support levels and be prepared for potential breaks below the previously noted "major" levels. Short-Term Bearish Tilt: Consider a short-term bearish bias for the day, prioritizing potential shorting opportunities on confirmed breakdowns below key supports or bounces off resistance levels. Focus on Commodities: Pay close attention to commodities markets, specifically oil and food-related commodities, as recent price increases suggest further inflationary pressure. Bull Case Trend Defense: Bullish outlook remains plausible if 5181 and 5168 are defended. Holding these supports suggests a potential path towards resistances at 5203 and 5220. Adding on Strength: Consider adding to long positions on reclaims of 5187, but proceed with extra caution ahead of potential further volatility. Bear Case Breakdown Risk: Breakdown below 5168-63 could signal a reversal. Look for bounces or failed breakdowns at these supports for potential short entries. Be aware that moves can be very rapid during high-impact news releases. News: Top Stories for March 12th, 2024 Inflation Concerns Surge: The latest CPI data reveals higher-than-expected inflation readings, sparking concerns about persistent inflation and its impact on the Federal Reserve's plans for interest rates. Market Volatility: Recent volatility underscores the sensitivity of the market to economic data and geopolitical events. Sectors like technology are drawing additional attention. Cryptocurrency Market: Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are fluctuating, reacting to regulatory updates and news of institutional adoption. Earnings Outlook: Stay attuned to corporate earnings for insights into how companies are navigating current economic challenges. Geopolitical Impacts: Global tensions, notably the Ukraine-Russia conflict, are influencing commodity markets and overall sentiment. Additional Factors: Keep an eye on M&A activity, economic indicators, tech regulation developments, sustainable investing trends, and evolving U.S.-China trade relations. Remember: News-driven events like the CPI release can trigger significant short-term volatility. Stay flexible, be prepared to adapt, and prioritize preserving your capital. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ESH2024
by spytradingpro
3/11 Monday Trading PlanTrading Plan for Monday, March 11th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bullish Weekly Volatility Risk: High Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5196, 5187 (major), 5181, 5176, 5168 (major), 5163 (major), 5155, 5147, 5140, 5136, 5131, 5126 (major), 5116, 5108, 5103, 5095, 5090 (major), 5084 (major), 5076, 5072 (major). Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5205 (major), 5211, 5220 (major), 5232, 5241 (major), 5254, 5262 (major), 5270-73 (major), 5280, 5290 (major), 5296, 5309 (major), 5326, 5330 (major), 5348, 5359, 5366, 5377 (major) Trading Strategy: Cautious Trading: The early week dip suggests a more cautious approach for Monday's trading. Err on the side of capital preservation by limiting aggressive trades. Long Opportunities: Look for potential long entries at major support levels, particularly 5187, 5168-63, and 5126. Counter-trend Cautions: (For experienced traders) Be aware of potential short opportunities at resistances like 5262 and 5241, but remember the overall bull trend remains in force. Bull Case: Trend Continuation: The overall bull market is still dominant. Defending 5187 (and ideally 5163) supports would signal that another leg up is likely, targeting 5262+. Adding on Strength: Monitor reclaims of 5211 for potential long entries. Bear Case: Breakdown Signals: A decisive break below 5187, particularly a failed breakdown, could trigger a move down the levels. Watch for shorting opportunities on confirmed breakdowns. News: Top Stories for March 11th, 2024 Stock Market Strength: The S&P 500 continues its record-breaking run, with a strong 7.11% return year-to-date. AI Drives Tech Boom: AI stocks, led by Nvidia's impressive earnings, are boosting the technology sector. Fed Outlook: The Federal Reserve's plans for interest rates are a key focus as investors anticipate potential cuts in late 2024. US Economic Picture: The latest GDP growth projections suggest a potential slowdown, but strong earnings and market momentum are positive indicators. Global Outlook: The IMF's upward revision of global growth forecasts points to a return to normal growth levels. Regulatory Updates: Fed officials are planning new rules to prevent banking crises, and the finalization of Basel III could have significant implications for the sector. Additional Considerations: Historical Trends: Historically, a strong January and February for the S&P 500 tend to foreshadow continued gains over the following 12 months. Inflation Expectations: Monitor potential for a rebounding inflation rate later in the year.
CME_MINI:ESH2024
by spytradingpro
3/8 Friday Trading PlanTrading Plan for Friday Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bullish Weekly Volatility Risk: High Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5155 (major), 5146, 5140, 5133 (major), 5125 (major), 5118, 5113, 5106 (major), 5101, 5088-92 (major), 5084, 5073, 5065, 5057-60 (major), 5052, 5046, 5040, 5032-29 (major), 5022, 5018, 5013 (Major), 4998-5000 (major), 4994, 4987, 4983 (major), 4976, 4965-70 (major). Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5155-58 (major), 5167, 5175, 5190 (major), 5197-5200, 5209 (major), 5217, 5229-32 (major), 5243, 5254, 5262-65 (major), 5272 (major), 5282, 5287 (major), 5300 (major), 5308, 5316 (major), 5331, 5344 (major). Trading Strategy: Capital Preservation Friday: Prioritize capital protection ahead of aggressive positions. Limit risk exposure to 20% of previous gains. Cautious Longs: Focus on potential longs at 5155, 5133, 5125, and particularly 5106. Look for bounces or reclaims of support levels for long entries. NFP Volatility: Anticipate heightened volatility and potential traps in the 30 minutes following the NFP data release at 8:30 AM. Approach with caution. Bull Case: Trend Continuation: Bulls remain in control on longer time frames. A successful defense of the 5155 level and ideally, the 5133 support, would pave the way for a base-building pattern below 5170 before retesting 5190 and the macro magnet levels above. Adding on Strength: Monitor for potential bull flags above 5150 or failed breakdowns of flag supports for long entries. Bear Case: Breakdown Signals: A breakdown below 5146 may signal a move down the levels. Watch for failed breakdown setups and bounces before considering short positions. In Summary: The trend remains bullish, but increased volatility and NFP release require a cautious approach. Focus on capital preservation, targeting potential longs at key support levels. News: Top Stories for March 8, 2024 Stock Market Strength: The S&P 500 continues to reach new all-time highs. AI Stocks Drive Tech Sector: AI-focused companies, particularly Nvidia, have spurred growth in the technology sector. Federal Reserve Policy: The Fed held interest rates steady at its last meeting and plans to maintain them at current levels ahead of the March 20 meeting. Rate cut expectations are rising for later in 2024. Indian Economic Outlook: Moody's raises India's economic growth forecast to 8% for FY24, citing strong domestic demand and government spending. The Reserve Bank of India governor also anticipates GDP growth near 8%. Global Outlook: J.P. Morgan economists expect the global economy to avoid recession despite monetary tightening, but they predict an end to global expansion in mid-2025. Inflation and Currencies: US inflation, measured by the CPI, rose more than expected in January. Sterling climbed to its highest since August, bolstered by potential rate cut expectations for the ECB and Fed. Other Highlights UK-India free trade agreement faces potential delays. Crude oil prices declined slightly, and gold prices increased. Bitcoin's rally is attributed to its limited supply. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ESH2024
by spytradingpro
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 03.03.24 - 03.08.24Last week - we were able to consolidate inside the Edge that we broke out of and get a squeeze for another test of upper VAL and a push inside Value. We were able to reach the Mean but no continuation through it towards next Key Resistance and a sell back under end of Day. Going into this week are inside a new ranges Value and our goal is to see IF more buying comes in to try to take out Current high to test next Key Area at 5159.25 - 54.25 and try to go above it ? IF we accept here and start balancing within new current range of 5154.25 - 5112.50 or IF stronger selling comes in to takes us back under VAL back inside Previous range ? We have built up a good amount of stops inside a T2 Range at the lower Edge which took a week to build, if we start holding under 5140 - 5125 - 5112.50 that could bring in Weakness to try and take lower Stops. We would need a strong bid to take out current upper Stops and build above them to try and accept over next Key Resistance. If no strong selling comes in then we could start balancing in current range. Levels to Watch : Current Resistance 5144 - 5140.25 // Key Resistance 5159.25 - 54.25 Levels Above : 5174.25 - 5188.25 // 5188.25 - 84.50 Current Support 5129 - 25 ? Untested // Key Support 5112.50 - 07.50 Levels Below 5095.50 - 92.50 // 5081 - 77.75 Key Support 5066.50 - 60.75
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
2
3/7 Thursday Trading PlanTrading Plan for Thursday Market Sentiment: Neutral Weekly Volatility Risk: High Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5100, 5093 (major), 5087, 5082-79 (major), 5078, 5070-73, 5058-60, 5052, 5045 (major), 5033-36 (major), 5028, 5018-20 (major), 5013, 5008 (major), 4998 (major), 4988, 4978, 4969, 4965-63 (major). Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5108 (major), 5112, 5121 (major), 5126, 5130-33 (major), 5140 (major), 5146, 5154, 5163, 5171 (major), 5182 (major), 5195, 5203-5206 (major), 5216, 5223, 5228 (major), 5235, 5240 (major), 5247, 5258-61 (major). Trading Strategy: Range-Bound Market: Trade with caution within the newly established range between 5093 and 5130-33. Exercise discipline and focus on key levels for potential trades. Long Opportunities: Look for potential long entries at 5108 (if back-tested), 5093, or on a failed breakdown of today's lows (5099-5100). If 5093 fails, aim for longs only at major supports; consider a failed breakdown of yesterday's low (5063) as a possible trade setup. Short Opportunities: Selling opportunities may emerge at the 5130 level if resistance holds. As always, avoid shorting green candles. Bull Case: Short-Term Focus: Bulls maintain control on higher timeframes. Failure of 5033-36 would signal the first step towards a trend shift. Focus on the immediate term; holding above 5093 allows for a base-building pattern between 5093 and 5130, with upside targets of 5140, 5146, and ultimately 5180. Bear Case: Breakdown Signals: Loss of 5093 raises caution, particularly if the 5079-83 support fails, triggering a deeper selloff. Exercise caution with breakdown trades and wait for clear signals. In Summary: The trend remains bullish, but increased volatility warrants a cautious approach. Pay close attention to the 5093 and 5130-33 levels. A breach of 5093 opens up opportunities for deeper retracements. News: Top Stories for March 7, 2024 Stock Market Rally Continues: The S&P 500 saw a strong February with a 5.34% gain and maintains a YTD total return of 7.11%. Investor confidence in the Federal Reserve's potential for a soft landing remains high. Recent earnings reports continue to surpass expectations. Federal Reserve Policy Shifts: Strong economic data may lead the Fed to postpone interest rate cuts previously expected to begin in March. Although Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggests the Fed's policy rate is likely at its peak, potential rate cuts may only materialize later this year. Economic Outlook: While FOMC officials are not anticipating a recession, they project a significant slowdown in the U.S GDP growth in 2024. The technology sector, with a particular emphasis on AI companies like Nvidia, continues to demonstrate robust earnings growth. Global Market Developments: China reduces a key interest rate to stimulate its property sector. Asian markets show mixed performance, with Japan's Nikkei reaching notable highs. Corporate and Banking Highlights: New York Community Bank receives a $1 billion investment from entities including former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin's company. Lufthansa reinstates dividends on the back of increased profits. WuXi Companies' shares experience a decline amidst renewed U.S. sanction concerns. Cryptocurrency Trends: Bitcoin's price surge is linked to its limited supply. Regulatory Updates: The SEC approves a revised climate disclosure rule, easing requirements for companies to report certain emissions. Investing Insights: Analysts from JPMorgan, Fidelity, and Morningstar offer perspectives on economic growth, inflation, corporate profits, and stock market valuations, emphasizing that despite potential economic slowdown, opportunities exist for investors across various asset classes. Other Major Developments: RBI takes action against Paytm Payments Bank in India. AstraZeneca announces a £200 million expansion investment in Cambridge, UK.
CME_MINI:ESH2024
by spytradingpro