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10/9 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Looking AheadRecap Last Friday, we witnessed a bullish breakout in ES. The movement was anticipated and played out well, running over 100 points from the day's low right to the final target of 4348 and beyond. The ES reclaimed its core bull market trendline from October 2022, which was necessary to set a low. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down but stable 🛢 Crude Oil: Up very strongly 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Closed for Columbus Day 🔮 Crypto: Down Major Global Catalysts Israel-Gaza war raises global tensions amid knee-jerk reaction from financial markets. Key Structures Zooming out, ES accomplished a couple of things last Friday: It put in a failed breakdown and reclaimed its core trendline from October 2022. This means for next week, bulls firmly control as long as we are above the 4310 (4295 absolute lowest) zone. Support Levels 4348 (major), 4336, 4322-25 (major), 4310-08 (major), 4295, 4290, 4278-80 (major), 4265, 4254, 4245 (major), 4227-29 (major), 4213-16, 4205 (major). Resistance Levels 4348 (major), 4358, 4366, 4377-80 (major), 4388, 4400-05 (major), 4418-24 (major), 4438 (major), 4448, 4455, 4463 (major), 4472 (major). Trading Plan For today, I will be sitting back and letting price discovery play out. My general lean is we can see some retracement/pullback, then ultimately head up to 4366, 4377-80. Likely dip there. Bulls cannot see lower than 4310-13 on any dip though. If we get a good tradeable bounce at 4310-13 though, followed by acceptance of the zone, something like 4304 may represent a higher risk breakdown entry trade. Wrap Up Bulls stepped in on cue last Friday reclaiming the core rising trendline from 2022s low. Predictability after a large move like this is very low, and I will be sitting back today and letting price discovery play out. My general lean is we can see some retracement/pullback, then ultimately head up to 4366, 4377-80. Likely dip there. Bulls cannot see lower than 4310-13 on any dip though. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
#ES Day Trading Prep Week 10.01 - 10.06Level : Current Balance 4378.50 - 4321.50 Resistance 4349.50 - 45.25 // 4362.75 - 59.50 Key Resistance 4378.50 - 74.75 Targets if accept over 4389.75 - 92.25 Area to accept over for continuation to VAL Support 4327.25 - 21.50 Key Support 4310 - 07.25 Targets if can get through HTF Support 4291.50 - 85.75 // 4272 - 65.50 Would need to accept under for any continuation towards the GAP under 4250. Last Week : Marked opened and consolidated around the Edge area with a test and fail over it which gave us a nice move towards lower targets for the week filling Contract Roll Gap and testing HTF Key Support top which provided a nice bid and pushed the market back into the Contract Roll Gap area which was market off as potential place to either bounce or find Support at and so far we have built up inside it and failed to take it out again on Friday. This Week : This might be a tricky week, we have made a big move lower since the start of the move from week 9.17 - 9.22, we had balance extension x 4 to get here and so far looks like might have found new Current Balance maybe at least for short term to do some cleaning ? It is a start of a new month and we do have market moving data and events this week so we will have to see if we actually stay in this 4378.50 - 4321.50 Balance or not. I would think we could at least hold within until mid week or so to build up some more structure to show us the way. If Balance : We are looking to spend some time in this 4378.50 - 4321.50 area and trade with in our Resistance areas are 4349.50 - 45.25 // 4362.75 - 59.50 Key Resistance 4378.50 - 74.75 Support in this 4331.50 - 27.25 - 21.50 areas ? Would need to accept Over/Under Key Resistance / Current Support areas to try and move out of balance. For More Downside : To see more downside ideally we would want to build up more over 4327 - 21 and then get a break / continuation towards Key Support at 4310 - 07.25 area which would be the spot to watch for more continuation and we could target HTF Support high and possibly low with targets at 4291.50 - 85.75 // 4272 - 65.50 this would be spot to get through to try and target lower Gap area under 4250. We would need either more supply build up or selling volume to get us to those areas this week. If heavy volume could see 4240 - 30 - 20s area. For Upside : To see upside from here we would want to build up in this range and start taking out Resistance areas to make a run at the Edge and 4378.50 - 74.75 would be Key Resistance to watch acceptance over to be able to target 4392.25 and VAL area above. We would need either a strong bid or run out of selling above 4370s in order to try and continue higher this week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
S&P500 on the way to the projected levelHere we are, seeing the projection I posted on my site and here becoming reality. P4 was slightly above the Center-Line. How price is falling through it. Next Target is P5. Either the Warning-Line, or the Lower-Medianline-Parallel. In between I expect a bounce up to the Centerline. Also, keep in mind that we could get a HAGOPIAN! That means, if price is not reaching the L-MLH, and pulling back above the CL, then possibilities are up for a huge move to the North. I took partial profits as shown in my last video on YT today. The rest is riding down to one of the targets. Steak & Lobster Baby! §8-) Wish you all a happy day.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
10/6 Trading Plan - Reviewing Wednesday and Looking AheadRecap Over the last week, I've consistently referred to a single trendline in ES - the core bull market trendline from October 2022 in the low 4300 area. This week, almost every significant move was related to this simple trendline. On Tuesday, we saw a hard sell on the failure of it, triggering a deep sell to 4235. However, on Wednesday, we rallied to 4304 high of day. Key Structures 4377-80: The downsloping channel is connecting the June 26th and August 18th lows. 4336: A major pivot that connects the September 2022, Feb 2023, and June 2023 highs. 4308: The core bull market uptrend line in green. 4254-58, then 4227-31: Major levels below 4308. 4212-05: A critical level below 4227. Support Levels 4290, 4279-83 (major), 4269, 4254-58 (major), 4242, 4227-30 (major), 4212 (major), 4206, 4190 (major), 4175 (major), 4166, 4154 (major), 4144, 4133, 4127 (major), 4109 (major), 4100, 4093, 4075-80 (major). Resistance Levels 4296 (major), 4308 (major), 4314, 4320 (major), 4336, 4348 (major), 4355, 4366, 4377-80 (major), 4386, 4400, 4411, 4418, 4425 (major), 4439, 4450 (major), 4460, 4467, 4473 (major), 4480, 4496, 4507 (major), 4513 (major). Trading Plan The bullish setup here is that this entire range between 4296 and 4258 or so is a large consolidation to set up a fresh trend leg higher. The bear case would be that the stubborn 4254-58 needs to fail for there to be any true bear case. My goal is always to get in as close as possible to either a recent high/low, or near a recent base. Wrap Up Today, we have the Non-Farm Payrolls report, which adds a massive “wild card” to the price. My general lean though is that 4296-54 is a range to set up a move higher. This new leg should target 4320, 4336 then 4348 at least. Should 4254 fail though, then ES probably needs a new low and I would expect it to tag 4230 at least. There is high uncertainty here, and I’ll be reacting as per the above plan. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
10/5 Trading Plan - Reviewing Wednesday and Looking AheadRecap Yesterday played out almost perfectly in ES. We had a big short squeeze after a final overnight flush, confirming our plan from the previous day. The final flush hit the 4230s, it defended, and then we saw a large squeeze to the 4304-08 final target. Today, we backtested the big multi-month support zone and ES put in a good green day with a large wick. The question now is whether the bulls can manage a second consecutive green day. Key Structures 4336 remains a major pivot and a battleground zone/magnet. 4308-13 is the core bull market uptrend line. It failed yesterday after 3 tests, and is now the new bull/bear line. 4254-58 and 4227-31 are major levels below there. Support Levels 4287-91 (major), 4278, 4269 (major), 4254-58 (major), 4240, 4227-30 (major), 4220, 4212, 4205 (major), 4190 (major), 4175 (major), 4166, 4153 (major), 4146, 4135, 4128 (major). Resistance Levels 4308-13 (major), 4322, 4335, 4349-54 (major), 4366, 4377-80 (major), 4385, 4400, 4418, 4424 (major), 4433, 4440 (major), 4453, 4460, 4470-73 (major). Trading Plan Bull case: Bulls will need to defend supports on any dip off this zone. Ideally, this would be 4290ish, with 4267 being lowest. Below there, it is probably we need another leg down to a new low at 4230 before any sustained low can be set. Bear case: In order to see new lows tomorrow, 4354-58 must fail. A few options to trade this - one could front run it by trading the fail of 4269. The alt is waiting for 4254 to fail and shorting at 4252 or so. Target is 4230. Wrap Up We are at a major decision point now and the price discovery here overnight and tomorrow will be key. My general lean if I had to provide one is that ES can go for green day #2 tomorrow. This will likely start with a dip first though, and bulls will need to defend that 4269 lowest. Next targets up are 4313, 4322, then back to the big 4336 level. If 4269 fails, its a warning that we need a new low. React, don’t predict. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
1
"Aggressive" VIX Short/ES Long SetupPossible volatility short/equities long shaping up. Still a lot of downside momentum/catching a bit of a falling knife + we'd rather see the NQ fill its gap south of 14400, but it could be time to start thinking about index longs given the levels both stocks and vol are approaching. Given that the Nasdaq still has further to fall before completing its gap fill, the ES could easily continue its decline (watch support/resistance levels ~4200). Something to keep in mind... Personally, we are waiting for confirmation entries before buying (looking for trend reversal signals on small timeframes), but more aggressive traders may find existing conditions more suitable for starter positions. Targeting is loosely based off of the red ES zones, but can also be mechanically derived and should be refined. Good luck! JHart @ LionHart Trading
TVC:VIXLong
by LionHart_Trading
Midweek Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap The past week saw multiple failed breakdowns in the S&P futures market, with each day since last Wednesday offering actionable trading opportunities. Yesterday's traditional failed breakdown, following a significant low and substantial sell-off, resulted in a rally to 4335. However, the subsequent sell-off highlights the importance of level to level profit taking. The same setup triggered again at the close yesterday, offering two fine entry points before invalidation. Key Structures The large, multi-month triangle which commenced the sell-off on September 20th remains a key feature. The downtrend line connecting the June 26th low with the August 18th low is a major victory for bulls. The most important level/pivot is 4336, which connects the August 2022, Feb 2023, and June 2023 highs. The core bull market uptrend line, shown in red, is now a “must hold” to keep any further relief rally in play. Support Levels 4254-58, 4227-30, 4206, 4190, 4165, 4127, 4111, 4087-91, 4075. Resistance Levels 4290, 4308-04, 4336, 4350-55, 4380, 4400, 4418-24, 4448, 4472, 4496-4500. Trading Plan The bull case tomorrow hinges on the trendline at 4308 reclaiming, which should set the seasonal bottom. If ES defends 4230 on any further selling and heads back to 4290, 4308, this could signal the bottom. For a more direct bull case from the 4254-58 level, a test of 4254 in the morning followed by a spike back into the high 4250s could indicate a move up to the 4290, 4308 backtest. The bear case, which remains the default, would involve ES continuing lower to 4227-30, ideally with overnight relief bounces not exceeding 4280. For those looking to add on shorts, the key is not to chase. The best shorts are on bounces, and a fail of 4254 tomorrow morning could trigger a move down. Wrap Up After today's big move, predicting the market's next move is challenging. The focus should be on reacting as per the plan. Bears could potentially defend 4269, 4280 max overnight and see another leg down into 4241, 4230-27 before a bounce. However, traders should be mindful of short squeeze risk. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
SPY Cycle Patterns CRUSH Day Leads Bearish TrendingMy proprietary SPY Cycle Patterns are an advanced predictive modeling system based on Fibonacci, Gann, and price cycles. The most incredible thing about these patterns is they predict future price action/trends many days, weeks, and months in advance - very accurately. The accuracy ratio of the SPY Cycle Patterns is usually about 85 to 90%. There are times when it is wrong. My proprietary research suggests we have entered a very dangerous new crisis phase. The SPY will likely target $404 or lower (possibly $393). I'm posting this short video to help you prepare for what comes next. Follow my research.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by BradMatheny
9/29 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap The action since Wednesday was further evidence of just how powerful simple technical analysis can be. Bulls put in a hammer daily candle right at 1 year old trendline support, showing the power of the bull market trendline connecting the October 2022 lows, with the March 2023 lows. This trendline was tested on Wednesday and resulted in a large bullish daily hammer candle at support, followed by a continued upward trend on Thursday. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up, Hong Kong up very strongly, mainland China close for a week 🌍 Europe: Up strongly 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down 🧐 Yields: Down a lot 🔮 Crypto: Up Major Global Catalysts PCE reports comes in lighter than expected. US government shutdown looms. Key Structures The large, multi-month channel in yellow remains the primary pattern. We broke it down Wednesday and went into melt-down. Things are straightforward now and bulls need to reclaim that channel at 4385 now to set a “sustained bottom”. This is far away now, but still worth remembering if we get a sustained, multi-day relief rally. Support Levels 4335 (major), 4322-25, 4313, 4308 (major), 4297 (major), 4280, 4270, 4260-62 (major), 4250, 4245, 4232-36 (major), 4220, 4212 (major), 4208 (major), 4198, 4190 (major), 4170-75 (major - this is a wider zone), 4156, 4150 (major), 4125 (major). Resistance Levels 4351 (major), 4366, 4372, 4382 (major), 4385, 4391, 4400-4405(major), 4418, 4424 (major), 4432, 4439 (major), 4446, 4460, 4468 (major), 4476, 4485-90 (major), 4496. Trading Plan The bull case would look something like base more then head up the levels to 4372-82, dip there, then push higher to 4k, 4424, then ultimately 4468. The big bear case only begins when 4297 fails. I don’t chase and I very obviously would not short the fail there after a 50-point sell. If we test 4297 though, put in a tradeable bounce, then build a nice base, I’d be short 4289 for a move lower down the levels. It could be a very deep one. Wrap Up Bulls put in their latest shot at a relief rally, this time at a very significant, 11 month long support. All other attempts have failed after a day. My general lean is bulls can try a little higher and the bounce is in play as long as 4297 keeps hold. This would look something like base/correct more, then push up the levels to 4366, 4372, 4382, then dip again. Ideally, bulls can hold 4335 or 4322 on any dips today. 4297 fails, we start the next deep leg lower. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
#ES Day Trading Prep Week 9.24-9.29Levels to Watch - Resistance : 4378.50 - 74.75 Key Resistance : 4403 - 4392.25 Acceptance in VAL would be needed to regain strength. Support : 4362.75 - 59.50 - 55 Area maybe ? - Market is looking for good Support if can't say within/over the Edge then could target a move towards lower Contract Roll Gap with levels to watch on the way for Targets : 4349.50 - 40.75 - 31.50 - 27.25 - 21.50 - 08.50 ? Depending on how much selling we get if any and if things get real ugly and we can fully fill the lower Contract Gap then we have HTF Key Support at 4291.50-4265.50 spot that started this whole move and a large Cost Basis. Last Week : Last week Market opened and held under 4508 - 02 Resistance area which gave us a break of Key Support and VAH which brought in more selling to take out Swing Stops at the mean and hit all of the lower targets down towards 4375.75 - 59.50 Edge. Friday first gave us a hold and push away from the edge back towards VAL but failed to get over the needed area and instead broke and close under/around the Edge low. This Week : Market is set to open in an interesting spot and around untested from Contract Roll Gap which started this whole move areas. Longs have been getting trapped higher and higher and Supply have been moving lower for some time now and question this week is Do we have enough Supply or Larger Time Frame Sellers to continue and fill the contract roll gap and maybe even try to get inside Key Support ? Or do we get enough short covering here to hold the market up Around this Edge/VAL areas to start consolidating to try and get back inside Value ? If Covering is strong enough but Supply will still be coming out then we could also drift lower in tighter range days from here unless selling will be strong enough. For the Downside : If Market can't stay inside the Edge and get back over 78.50 - 74.75 Resistance / hold over then we could see more selling. We would need to get under 62.75 - 59.50 to targets 49.50 - 45 Which would be an area to watch for any continuation, if we get through and hold under 49.50 we could see continuation towards 30s - 20s with 4331.50 - 27.25 - 21.50 Being potential area for a hold or bounce on first pushes so would have to be careful around these lower areas as there could be good buying order flow around BUT with the way chart is looking and if we still have volume Supply coming out we could easily keep going since size longs would first want to see market hold before putting together positions and any strength right now could just be size short covering at targets and then continuing to look for buyers. 4308.25 - 4291.50 Is another Spot to watch if we get down there. For the Upside : For market to reverse long from here we would have to hold over 4349.50 - 62.75 to test Resistance at 78.50-74.75 Would need to see strength and hold over to target Key Resistance and VAL area which would be the spot to watch for any continuation this week, market would need to accept in VAL to regain strength again, other than that longs might be better from lower potential Supports if they show strength. If Balance : We are around a Key Larger Time Frame Area and if selling wont be as strong here and we still have covering/buying then we could see ourself tighten up ranges and maybe even balance in this 4350 - 80 +/- areas until we build up enough to attempt a move towards VAL or continue lower. Need to be careful around here unless we can continue under 59-45 or 80-92
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
9/28 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap The SPX market has been tracking seasonals with extreme precision. The last two weeks of September, which are typically the worst of the year, saw ES selling virtually non-stop from the FOMC last Wednesday until yesterday’s low. After a final flush lower, ES put in a violent relief bounce/short squeeze. This process tracked nicely from Tuesday’s newsletter, with a rally to 4335 followed by a sell-down for a final leg into a new low. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Up slightly 🌎 US Index Futures: Choppy, down very slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Up Major Global Catalysts US GDP report shows a slight slowdown in consumer spending. Key Structures The large, multi-month channel in yellow remains the primary pattern. We broke it down Wednesday and went into meltdown. Things are straightforward now and bulls need to reclaim that channel at 4485 now to set a “sustained bottom”. 4335-40 remains the single most important level. It is the backtest of the 9 month base we broke out on June 1st, that started the “summer 2023 melt-up”. This connects the August 2022, Feb 2023, and June 2023 highs. This remained a battleground zone all week and yesterday, we backtested it from below and continued lower. Support Levels 4308, 4296-97 (major), 4290, 4280, 4268-72 (major), 4258, 4254, 4245, 4231-36 (major), 4213 (major), 4205 (major), 4191, 4180, 4167-72 (major), 4153. Resistance Levels 4314, 4320-22, 4335-40 (major), 4352 (major), 4356, 4366 (major), 4375, 4382 (major), 4390, 4399, 4410, 4419-24 (major), 4431, 4439, 4449, 4465-67 (major), 4485-88 (major). Trading Plan Bulls need to defend 4296-97, the single most important support level. If it fails, it's back into the same old free fall. For those who like counter-trending though, 4267-72 and 4231-36 are good spots to knife catch. On the resistance front, 4335-40 is well-tested now and it could blow through. Preferred spots to engage on the short side would be fresher levels higher up, such as 4366 now as it gives some space. Wrap Up Bulls put in a hammer daily candle right at 1-year-old trendline support. Now, they need to follow through. As long as 4296 keeps hold, we can base build between 4296 and 4335, then take a run to 4366+. If 4296 fails, it's sell again to 4270 then 4235. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
Looking for short entry on the $NQ overnight session.I believe price action will play out the way the blue bars are illustrated in the yellow circle. Will be looking for a short entry within the pink box range. A lot of people are calling for a counter-trend rally on the $NQ after this massive move down. But I don't think much more than a 1-4 candle correction will result. And as noted by my projection, I believe it will have been a 1 day correction and a weak one at that. May your P&L be green and fat. This is a long term swing trade with 1st profit target at ~ $13,600. Cheers and good luck!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by DegenerateSatoshi
9/27 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap The ultra-bearish confluence we found ourselves in last week has continued with the most bearish two weeks of the year seasonally in late September and the breakdown of the ES chart pattern at 4472. This has resulted in a sell-off with a major magnet at the 4335 level. Despite a brief green day and a 45 point bounce, further revisiting of the 4335 level has indicated bad news for the bulls. Key Structures The large, multi-month triangle pattern remains the primary pattern. The bulls need to reclaim this pattern at 4485 to set a "sustained bottom". The 4377-83 level has been a significant ceiling and the 4336 level remains the most important level, acting as the backtest of the 9 month base. Support Levels Support levels to watch for are: 4308, 4291-96 (major), 4280 (major), 4269, 4253, 4232-36 (major), 4219, 4212, 4205, 4190, 4181, 4165-70 (major), 4147, 4135, 4125 (major). Resistance Levels Resistance levels to note are: 4314, 4322, 4335-38 (major), 4351-49 (major), 4360, 4366 (major), 4377-4383 (major), 4391, 4400, 4417 (major), 4424, 4439-41 (major), 4449, 4455, 4467 (major), 4485-88 (major). Trading Plan The bear case continuation begins again on the fail of 4290. The best shorts are always backtests on bounces. One possibility would be the loss of today’s low, perhaps 4307 for the final flush into support above. The 4290 breakdown would also be a short, but I’d need extensive acceptance here first then I’d be getting short very high 4270s for a large sell leg again into the 4230s. The bull case would involve ES holding 4291 as the absolute lowest, then reclaiming that level. I’d need to see 4335-38 test, then a sell at the level. Then I’d need to see price return there to accept it and build a base, after which I’d be looking long, perhaps high 4330s. Wrap Up We’re approaching a key support area between 4290 and 4297. This area marks the 50-day moving average and prior swing highs from August. As long as prices hold above 4290-4297, the index may be poised to bounce and put in a relief rally after the recent sell-off. However, if 4290 fails to hold as support, we could see a test of the 4280 level which marks the 200-day moving average. Below 4280, the next major support is around 4232-4236 which was the June low. In summary, 4290-4297 is an important support zone to watch. A bounce from here could signal a relief rally, but breaking below would open the door for a retest of the 200-day MA at 4280 and potentially the June lows. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
1
9/26 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Last week ended with significant selling, the most we've seen since the bull market began nearly a year ago. The selling was anticipated due to a breakdown of a triangle pattern after the FOMC last Wednesday. We experienced four consecutive red days, a rarity, with the largest red day since March 2023 occurring last Thursday. Market Gauge 🔴 Bearish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down slightly World News Asian stocks lower on more problems in China’s property developers. Key Structures The primary pattern remains the large, multi-month triangle, which we broke down last Wednesday. Bulls need to reclaim this triangle at 4483 to set a sustained bottom. Below there, 4418 is key, with clearance triggering back to 4470+. The 4377-83 trendline, connecting the major swing lows of June 26th and August, is also important to watch. The single most important support level below price right now is 4336, a very significant level. Its defense is crucial for the broader bull market. Support Levels Supports are: 4366 (major), 4353 (major), 4341, 4335 (major), 4322, 4315-13 (major), 4297, 4290 (major), 4280, 4268, 4253 (major), 4232-37 (major), 4212, 4205, 4190 (major), 4175, 4165 (major), 4150. Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4377, 4383 (major), 4393, 4400, 4415-4418 (major), 4431, 4439, 4449, 4460-65 (major), 4477, 4484 (major), 4496 (major), 4507, 4523 (major), 4531, 4539 (major). Trading Plan The bull case today would see a base build in the 4353-4383 zone, then a push higher. The push would be level to level, targeting 4393, then heading up to 4415-18. The bear case starts on the fail of 4335. A higher risk short is at 4353. Wrap Up If 4353 fails, we retest 4335, which is a must hold — if that fails, we fall to 4322, then 4313-15. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
9/25 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Mid-market update. Last week, the ES put in the first relief pop of the new leg down. More downside is expected this week. Last week saw a powerful confluence of FOMC, a major multi-month triangle breakdown, and the most bearish two weeks of the year seasonally. Market Gauge 🔴 Bearish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed, China very weak 🌍 Europe: Down a lot 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Down slightly 💵 Dollar: Up a bit 🧐 Yields: Up sharply 🔮 Crypto: Down World News The downward price movement continues to be the catalyst that feeds on itself. Last week's selling was primarily due to the breakdown of the ES triangle pattern following the FOMC meeting. The triangle breakdown targeted 4418-24, then 4385, and we reached the 4385 target in one session. Key Structures The large, multi-month triangle remains the primary pattern, with resistance at 4542 and support at 4473-75. Key supports worth watching are 4385, 4366, and 4335. Support Levels Supports are: 4366 (major), 4353 (major), 4344, 4332-35 (major), 4316, 4307, 4296, 4288-90 (major), 4280, 4268, 4262 (major), 4253, 4232-38 (major), 4215, 4200-05 (major), 4192. Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4366 (major), 4370, 4380-83 (major), 4400, 4412, 4418-24 (major), 4439, 4448, 4465 (major), 4470 (major), 4485, 4496 (major), 4505-08 (major), 4516, 4522-25 (major), 4533, 4543 (major). Trading Plan Bears remain in control and any bull case at this point is for a relief bounce only. Bulls have nothing to be excited about until 4418-24 clears, or until we hit 4335 and explode off it with force. Wrap Up We remain in difficult conditions here and the plan is to be as reactive as possible and keep prediction to a minimum. The general lean is that the low is not in by any means, and there is a high chance that 4335 tests this week — 4338.25 already touched today. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
#ES Day Trading Prep Week 9.17-9.22Levels to Watch : Resistance 4508.75-02.50 ? Key Resistance 4532.50-24.25-19 Targets if Over 4548.75-43.75 // 4570.62.50 Support Prev Day Low 4497.25-94.75-90 ? Key Support 4487.25-79.75 Targets if Under VAH, 4465.25-60.25 // 4449.75-45-34.75 ( Needs to break/hold for ANY continuation ) // 4422.75-18.75 // 4403-4392.25 Range Edge 4375.75-4359.50 Last Week : Thursday/Friday after the contract roll we ended up in key bigger time frame Range Edge area at 4508-25, we consolidated around it, held above 4508-02 which brought more buying to give us a push and hold over 4532-24 Resistance midweek. From there market was able to take out 4548.75-43.75 and make a move towards our HTF Supply and next target at 4570-62.50. RTH failed to test it and instead we got a push in, consolidation and fail at that area during Thursday Globex and once we got under the Supply and 4448-43 that gave us a nice end of week sell back towards Previous Resistance and then Support at 4508-02 which we ended up breaking and closing under. This Week : Tonight we are set to open under our previous Balance of 4548-43 // 4508-02 area after a failed break out above at the end of the week. Question this week is this just trapped supply from our 4570-62.50 area or is this bigger selling that could possibly give us continuation this week towards our lower targets? Or do we get consolidating around Key Support / Previous Day Low areas and or find strong enough buying to push us back over 4508.75 and keep us in that balance which chance at higher targets? For the Downside : If the Market fails to to get over 4508.75-02.50 and hold above then we could see a break of Previous Day low and test of 4487.25-79.75 Key Support, depending on volume it could take time to get through but IF we do and start holding under that could give us more selling to continue through VAH towards lower targets -- Contract Roll Gap 4465.25-60.25, We have Swing Stops and Mean at 4449.75-34.75 area if we get through 65-60. This would be area to watch and hold under for any continuation, if we do get through it and get more selling we have 4422.75-18.75 and untested after we broke back in from below VAL area at 4416.50-05.50 as potential targets. With next area to watch at 4403-4392.25. For the Upside : Holding under 4524.25-4508.75-02.50 area means continued weakness, longs would need to be done from lower Support areas either on strong bounces or after some consolidations, if we the selling strong then need to be careful and be ready to exit those quicker. If we do get a hold around Previous Day Low / Key Support area or get strong buying to give us a push back over 4508.75 and hold then we could target a move back towards 4519-24.25 which would be Key Resistance for any continuation higher this week. If we do get a push through 4524.25-32.50 we then could target 4570-62.50 RTH test but for now a lot of Supply above so need to be careful. We could get more sideways balancing action in this 4480-90 // 4525 areas unless we can take out and hold under/over targets, Structure under is not very strong so would be surprising to not see any continuation at least towards 65-60 if we can hold under 4508 but we will have to wait and see what we get.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
9/21 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Midday Friday afternoon update. The market experienced a bearish trend with high volatility last week, triggered by the breakdown of the 2-month triangle pattern and the start of the most bearish seasonal cycle of the year. Despite reaching the 4385 level, it's unclear whether a bounce is imminent. The downward trend began with a structure breakdown and will end when resistance clears or a failed breakdown occurs. Market Gauge 🔴 Neutral to Bearish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down slightly 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Down a bit 🧐 Yields: Down a bit 🔮 Crypto: Down a bit World News US and global markets plunge on hawkish FOMC statement and dot plot, signaling higher rates for longer. Bank of England and Swiss National Bank leave rates unchanged. Key Structures The primary pattern is the large, multi-month triangle in yellow with resistance at 4542 and support at 4473-75 (thin grey line). Key supports to watch are 4385, 4366, and 4335. The "final bottom" is only in when the original pattern that started the sell-off reclaims. Support Levels Major support levels are at 4366, 4355, 4330-35, 4322, 4316, 4296, 4285-90, 4268, and 4253. The next major support down is 4366 with 4355 below there. Resistance Levels Major resistance levels are at 4382-85, 4425-18, 4442-39, 4469, 4473-75, 4485, 4505, 4515-20, and 4542-45. The first resistance up is the 4382-85 zone. Trading Plan There is no bull case until a resistance clears, with the first being the 4382-85 zone. A safe bet for longs are always failed breakdowns or the reclaim of a resistance. For shorts, the safer bet is on backtests. The bear case remains strong, but there is high short squeeze risk. Shorts from here are best done on backtests rather than breakdowns. Wrap Up After a week of high volatility and a bearish trend, the market remains uncertain. It's important to remember that the goal is wealth building by stacking and compounding gains day after day, month after month, year after year, not catching every move. As such, trade with caution and protect your profits. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
1
9/21 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Yesterday's FOMC day was filled with volatility and traps, making it a challenging day for trading. ES finished below the support of the key triangle structure at 4470, indicating a bearish sentiment. Despite the volatility, smart trading strategies that focused on failed breakdowns and level-to-level profit management yielded lucrative results. Market Gauge 🔴 Bearish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down a lot 🌎 US Index Futures: Down a lot 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Up strongly 🔮 Crypto: Down World News US and global markets plunge on hawkish FOMC statement and dot plot, signalling higher rates for longer. Bank of England and Swiss National Bank leave rates unchanged. Key Structures The large, multi-month triangle in yellow remains the primary pattern. Resistance is at 4550 now, with support at 4473. This pattern has driven trading all month and yesterday we lost support, indicating that bears are in control. A reclaim of this level would see ES push back to 4496, and likely clear it for a move back towards triangle resistance. Support Levels Key support levels for today include 4439-35 (Major), 4425-18 (major), 4407, 4400 (major), 4390, 4382-85 (major), 4377, and 4366 (major). Resistance Levels Resistance levels to watch out for today are 4448, 4460, 4465, 4473 (major), 4486-88, 4496, 4504 (major), 4514 (major), 4524, 4532, 4542(major), 4548 (major), 4556, 4562, 4566, 4574, 4580-85 (major), 4595-4600, and 4609 (major). Trading Plan The plan for today is to stay nimble and non-biased, taking level to level pieces and getting to the sidelines. The bearish sentiment means that bounces are likely to fade and supports to melt through. The most important level to track is 4473, which was yesterday’s breakdown point. If we get a relief bounce, the first touch of 4473 probably represents a good short. Wrap Up Post-FOMC trading is complex and requires a reactive approach. The general lean for today is a possible relief bounce to backtest the 4472 zone with 4439 and 4425 being possible spots. ES is likely to reject on that backtest. Always remember to protect your profits and trade smartly, even in volatile market conditions. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro