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8/31 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap The trading week so far has been marked by a powerful rally, with four massive green days in a row. We've retraced 60% of the selloff that took bears the entire month of August in just four days. The combination of failed breakdowns and runners has proven incredibly effective, leading to the largest gain of 2023 for me in terms of points. Market Outlook: Neutral to Bullish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Up a bit 🌎 US Index Futures: Up a bit 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down slightly World News European inflation remains flat at 5.3% US PCE inflation holds steady Key Structures The yellow declining channel from the August high is a bull flag with 4507 resistance and support around 4400 now. The 4410 level has been a magnet all month and is also the yellow trendline connecting the Dec 2022, Feb 2023 highs, and June 2023 low. I call this the bull/bear line and bulls control above, bears control below. Support Levels Supports are: 4515 (major), 4508 (major), 4499, 4490-93, 4482 (major), 4473, 4466 (major), 4454, 4448 (major), 4440, 4430, 4423 (major), 4410 (major), 4397 (major), 4389, 4377 (major), 4364, 4357 (major), 4348, 4339 (major), 4329, 4321 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4515 (major), 4527, 4533, 4537 (major), 4546, 4560-65 (major), 4575, 4585, 4592 (major), 4597, 4607 (major), 4619, 4630, 4640-45 (major). Trading Plan As long as the 4508 and 4515 levels hold, the bull case today looks like base building above 4515, then run up the levels to 4537, perhaps as high as 4545. Potential dip spot there, then continue to 4560-65. The bear case today begins on the fail of 4508. This is a possible short, but I don’t chase. If you chase, you get caught in a failed breakdown. Wrap Up We are now in the post-rally phase. There is obviously high risk of rapid, violent rug pulls now after 4 green days into a major resistance. As long as 4515-08 holds, we can push to 4537-4545, dip there (if bears are lucky, maybe even a top). Above there after, we continue to 4560-65. 4508 fails, we start the sell. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
8/30 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap As anticipated, the ES put in a core setup and a major bottoming pattern last Friday at 11am. Since then, it's been a steady climb to the upside. I got long at 4385 and have been holding since, turning it into an incredible 120 point long. As I predicted on Monday, the bull case played out exactly as expected, with the ES basing under 4448 all night, then taking the run up to 4474-76. ES did not stop there, instead running for 4515 which has been my macro target all week. Market Outlook: Bullish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up a bit 🌍 Europe: Up slightly 🌎 US Index Futures: Near unchanged 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down World News U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo critical of Chinese business environment. Key Structures The key structures I'm watching now include the purple declining channel from the August high, the 4458 & 4548 zone, the 4408 level, and the 4376 support. These structures provide context to the daily price action and are not meant to be predictive. Support Levels Supports are: 4498, 4487-93 (major), 4475, 4466, 4458 (major) 4454, 4448 (major), 4440, 4430, 4424 (major), 4417, 4409 (major), 4403 (major), 4392-89, 4374-76 (major), 4358, 4348 (major), 4338, 4330, 4318-21 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4513-15 (major), 4523, 4527, 4537 (major), 4544, 4557 (major), 4570-72 (major), 4585, 4592, 4597 (major), 4607 (major), 4615-18, 4628, 4637 (major), 4651. Trading Plan After such a major move, it's crucial to trade carefully and selectively. The first major support down is 4487-93. If this fails, we could see some selling and any longs would be considered knife catches. The first major resistance is 4513-15. If we overthrow to something like 4523 then lose 4515, it may represent a more attractive setup for those interested in these. Wrap Up The bull case has played out as expected and now it's time to step back and wait for the market to reveal its next move. After a big move, it's crucial to trade light and patiently wait for price discovery. If we clear 4513-15 with force, we simply continue up the levels to 4537 then 4570 direct. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 8.27-9.01Levels To Watch : Key Resistance 4445-37 // Current 4422.75-18.75 // 16.50 ? Target if over 4465-60.25 // 87.25-79.75 Current Support 4478.50-74.75 // Key For Continuation Lower 4362.75-55 Targets if under 4349.50-45 // 38.50-31.50 // 27.25-21.50 *** 4405.25-4392.25 ? This was previous Key Resistance and 4416-05 is our VAL on 4hr, we closed within it but we don't know if it will act as Support or not, If market cant hold over it then that would be our sign of weakness. Last Week : Going into last week 4378-74 was our pinata low for the week to crack in order to see lower prices, as discussed in last Sundays prep IF we do hold over it then that could bring tests of Current Resistance // Key Resistance and if we hold over then that could bring the test of higher stops. We were able to clear all the upper stops and back fill towards our HTF Mean area around 4487-60 but the run up was done after hours/Globex and market just couldn't hold, closer we got to RTH the more selling came in. End of week we ran out of buying and inventory flushed back under Key Resistance, broke our Pinata Low with volume but buying came in at Current Support for the week which pushed us back over 78-74 and into Resistance. One of the things I noticed is how long it took us to clean up under 4405 to get back inside value, if we trapped size and had strong buyers here would it take us that long to push back inside value? This Week : This week we are set to open around our VAL 4416.50-05.25, under Supply that was again trapped over 4420 and close to our bigger Supports.... sounds fun! So where can we head from here? We had some strong selling Thursday/Friday out of our VAH and Value area but our range Support held the tests and gave us a close back in Key Area. Seems like buying here from last week is just short covering and new longs who aren't strong enough to hold us up over Key Areas just yet with stronger buying coming below 4370s. For the Downside - IF the Market can't hold over 4416.50 that would signal continued weakness and if 4405.25-92.25 area doesn't act as Support then we could see more selling. If we break and start holding below that it could bring in test of Current Support at 4378.50-74.75 IF we break it again that would give us another chance at lower targets. 4362.75-55 Would be the Key area to hold under during the week, under we could see more weakness towards 4349.50-45 // 38.50-31.50 // 4327.25-21.50 These areas are close to our HTF Key Support so watch out for buyers at first tests and even possible a stronger bounce? If the market shows. We do have Contract Roll Gap under and we would have to see if we have enough supply to get inside it to maybe make a move towards bigger Support or no? For the Upside - IF 4405.25-4392.25 can act as Support and Market can hold over it then that could bring in more buyers to get us back over VAL at 4416.50. We would need to get over that and hold over 22.78-18.75 which is a pretty big Current Resistance as we didn't have much buying over it last week. Only holding over that can bring higher prices and give a chance at 4445-37.75 which would be our mean and next Key Area to get through/hold over. Unless we can do that then I would be careful trying to long unless its from Support areas if they show holds or strong buying from targets if they happen. Possible stronger buying area could be 4431.50-21.50 and under IF we get there. ** We could as well spend time in range under Value between 4420s-4370s-50s without going too much lower as this is still area of buying and unless we hold under/over Key areas then need to be careful. We do have lots of Market moving data this week so hopefully we can get some good trading and wont stay in range.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
29082023 - #ESFriday's levels () worked well as market sold off almost at the level given, hit the 4358 to the dot before going higher. Now market is back to the highs especially after the up move yesterday. Overall, price action is bullish and is supported all the zones but somewhat "overbought". Price might pull back to cool off before going higher. 4424 (max low of 4414) or so will be a good level to look for longs for a move higher. But if market did not go down but instead rally to the 4448 strong resistance, will look for reversal candle to look for a move down instead.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by FadeMeIfYouCan
1
8/29 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap August is nearing its end and incredibly for the entire month, ES has only put in two consecutive green days on one occasion. The latest attempt began on Friday, and as readers recall, I got long at 4385 based on my core, highest win rate trading pattern - the failed breakdown. Market Outlook: Neutral to Bullish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Down slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Up a bit 🔮 Crypto: Down a bit World News Chinese markets were strongly higher overnight on reports of more stimulus as state banks lower mortgage rates. European Union announces new expansion plans. Key Structures Some core big picture structures and levels I am watching now (from highest to lowest). These are big picture structures, and provide context to the daily price action. They are not meant to be “predictive” and I will be trading the intraday levels in the below plan level to level, one level at a time, one move at a time, then resetting bias. These are not comprehensive. Support Levels Supports are: 4441 (major), 4430, 4424 (major), 4409-13 (major), 4398, 4387-90, 4376 (major), 4360, 4347-52 (major), 4339, 4327, 4318-20 (major), 4312, 4300 (major), 4287 (major), 4278, 4266 (major), 4241, 4225-30 (major) Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4448, 4454 (major), 4466, 4474-76 (major), 4487-93 (major), 4500, 4513-16 (major), 4523, 4528, 4538 (major), 4545, 4556 (major), 4565-68 (major). Trading Plan Bull case: Unchanged. I posted something very simple all last week. Bulls control above 4408, and bears control below. Since we reclaim 4408 on Friday (plus the failed breakdown), bulls control. Generally, the bull case from here looks something like base more under 4448, then take the run up the lvls to 4454, 4466, then 4474-76. Dip there, then onto 4513. Bear case: Unchanged. Loss of 4408 is the first big warning for bulls. The sell trigger remains the same as Friday, which is the failure of 4376. I’d short this, but as always - I don’t chase. I’d need to see a bounce there to drain demand, then I’d look short 4373 for the next leg down. Level to level profit takes as always, but seeing 4320 would not shock me. Wrap Up In summary, my general lean is that we can base more above 4424 then run to 4466, 4474-76. If 4424 fails, we retest 4408, and the loss of that is a big warning for bulls. 4376 fail starts the next trend leg down. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
Weekly Plan ES Futures /2708/28 Weekly Plan. ES Futures September Weekly Pivot is 4,402 [top of the spike from 8/24 Targets 4,425 4,469 [5 days balance top) 4,505 Targets 4,350 4,313 4,289 Now trading at 4,418 Alerts You will receive alerts in this channel every time ES hits (2M candle close): Weekly opening 4,418 Weekly pivot at 4,402 Each weekly target. Side notes: 5 Days Balance in daily + monthly. We are One Time Framing Down in Weekly Chart, weekly OTFD ends if 4468.75 is breached in RTH (balance top). 5 days balance zone is When trading off weekly levels, each level will act as support and resistance, “no trade zones” do not apply to weekly plan. Have a great week and trade safe.
SP:SPX
by dhjesus
8/27 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Friday was a typical Jackson Hole day, characterized by unpredictability and traps. As predicted, the day saw extensive trapping where the price would make an initial move, trap traders, reverse, and then repeat. Despite the volatility, bulls won the day, maintaining control as long as the 4408 level held. Market Outlook: Neutral to Bullish Key Structures There are several key structures to watch. The large rising uptrend channel in white, which failed on Tuesday, August 15th, causing a 120 point flush, needs to reclaim to set a definitive bottom. The yellow channel, a failed bull flag with 4523 resistance and support around 4408-10, needs to be re-entered by the bulls. Lastly, the head and shoulders pattern built since mid-June tried to breakdown the "neckline" at 4375 Thursday and failed, indicating a bullish failed breakdown. Support Levels Supports are at 4408-10 (major), 4402, 4382-85 (major), 4375 (major), 4363, 4357 (major), 4348, 4339 (major), 4328, 4319-23 (major), 4311, 4298-4301 (major), 4282-86 (major), 4272, 4266, 4247 (major), 4235 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are at 4423 (major), 4429,4437-40 (major), 4448, 4453 (major), 4467, 4474 (major), 4482, 4487-92 (major), 4499, 4512 (major), 4522 (major), 4527, 4540-45 (major), 4554, 4560, 4566-68, 4576-80 (major), 4592, 4598, 4607-09 (major). Trading Plan For Monday, the bull case remains the same. As long as the level of 4408 is maintained, the rally is alive. The bear case requires the level of 4375 to fail. In both cases, it is essential to see the level fully accepted before attempting shorts or longs. If 4408 fails, we play the levels. If 4375 fails, we free fall. Wrap Up In summary, we are still in deep chop around the 4408 magnet. My general lean as of now is that as long as 4408-10 keeps holding, we can base build then continue up the levels. If 4408 fails, we play the levels. If 4375 fails, we free fall. As always, trade with caution and don't chase. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
#ES_F Day Trading Prep for Week 8.20-8.25Levels to Watch : Resistance - Current 4392.25-86.75 // Key for Continuation 4405.25-4398 4422-18.75 // 4434.75-28.50 // 4445-37.75 Support - Current and for continuation lower 4367.25-59.50 4349.50 // 4327-21.50 ? Not Tested. Key HTF Support 4291.50-65.50 I wouldn't say 4378.50-74.75 is currently Support unless Globex can Hold over. Last Week : Beginning of the week market opened and held Current Support which gave a push back inside our Key Resistance area with a what could seem like a strong end of day push/close. To me it seemed like an end of day stop run to sell into, our theme has been sell what we can at lower prices while buyers are there then once buyers run out we move lower trapping new buyers above. Another red flag was that we didn't fully take out that 4502-09 area. Tuesday Globex made a push out of Key Resistance, went sideways and failed which is what started our next move towards lower targets. We hit both of the big targets lower in one week, can see that closer to our bigger Support areas we were getting the more consolidation we needed to continue but we made it there. 4374-62-49 was our Key Support area on Friday and we needed to hold under for any continuation, this was also a big target where shorts would be taking profit and covering.. especially into the weekend, as well a Support everyone had their eyes on for possible bounce they have bene waiting for while its coming down? Support held and surprise we again got a stop run end of day back towards our Resistance for the day at 4392. This Week : This week might be a bit tricky, we had some good selling going down towards our lower targets but we are now getting closer to our bigger Support areas and there is starting to be more congestion around here. It doesn't look like there is enough strong buying here to just give us a bounce or a big reversal yet. We are still under the Supply and have been trapping more on the way down so this could take some time to clean up and or a another flush towards bigger Support where we could find a bigger bid that can give us a stronger move up or at least better hold to start bigger consolidation. Currently our inventory is in this 4392-4362 range and we are looking to see where it could move, most of the inventory is built up over 4375 because we didn't spend as much time under it Friday. We have 4392-4403 as our Key Resistance and we would want to see market be able to push over it and look strong over it before we can start thinking of bigger reversal to head for higher stops, if we can't then that means continued weakness for now. If we do hold over 74 area and get over 92-98 then we will have a chance over Key Resistance. If we get under 4378-74 we could see more selling towards lower Support, if that doesn't hold we have a chance for continuation lower where our targets would be 49.50 - 30s, possibly test of 27-21.50 and maybe that Contract Roll Gap area? which so happens to be above our HTF Key Support area. We will have to see if we can get in that space and fill it or do we find buyers to possibly give us a hold/pull back. If that doesn't hold we have 4310-4291 as our bigger time frame range low and its possible to either find a bigger bid or at least enough buying for hold/some sort of reversal IF we get there and of course if we find that. Market made a big move lower and now might need time clean up, we will have to see what kind of action we get.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
2
Nasdaq Futures - The Trend Is Your Friend, Until The EndFor whatever reason, the thing about traders is they don't like to go short and they don't like to buy puts. This is primarily because of being conditioned by the market makers during bull runs and bull impulses that it's just literally lighting money on fire. And so once a real correction begins, some people buy the dip the entire way down, averaging down, dollar cost averaging, and really get hurt. This is especially true during that initial phase where the saying "The trend is your friend, until the end," applies. There was a lot of enthusiasm on the social media last night and today about shorts "being made to cover" ahead of Jackson Hole, and for all criticism of this early enthusiasm aside, the logic actually isn't wrong. Right now we retraced to a key gap, took out two lows along the way, and this is the best bounce there's been on the SPX and Nasdaq in a week. What we did is receive, on no news, a 2.5% bounce heading into the August 25 Federal Reserve Jackson Hole event, where Jerome Powell will hold a press conference and issue policy that will dictate the next 12 months to the entire world. The problem with Jackson Hole from a game theory perspective is both that it triggered a mega dump last year, while this year, especially if you've bothered to take even a cursory read of the FOMC press conference transcripts published on the Wall Street Journal's website, there's not a single reason to believe Powell is going to say anything about an oncoming or imminent pivot or change in policy. Pivots, generally, come at the bottoms of the market, for one. Next, inflation, in reality, is not as bad as it was before, but when Powell tells you 2% is the target is the target is the target and you're getting excited about 3.8%, keep in mind that 80% is a lot. If you had 80% on NVDIA you'd have $300 a share. If NVDIA did a 100:1 split you'd have 30 cents a share representing an 80 percent move. This is how math works and it's why 3.8% is still really, really far away from 2.00%. The second biggest problem the markets have is the situation with China, Xi Jinping, and the Chinese Communist Party. Whatever the fundamental cause truly is, the economy in China is in big time, escalating trouble. Have you looked at the Hangseng Tech Index? It's dropped 17% in a month. Imagine if the SPX dropped 800 points in September and the noise and chaos that would cause. And this is the world's most critical country, one of the largest economies, an economic manufacturing and spending hub, and the place that formerly had the largest population. Everything in this world is tied to China because it is the hub and the rest of the world is the spoke. In Chinese, the country is called "Zhongguo," literally "Central Kingdom" for a reason. What everything is portending is an upcoming very public disaster for the CCP and Xi Jinping. That disaster, however, may be Xi Jinping throwing away the CCP in the middle of the night. Xi dumping the CCP will cause a significant Earthquake and Tsunami in the financial markets. But the after effects may actually cause what appears to be a boom, at least at first. But whether President Xi does or does not dump the CCP, the 24-year-long organ harvesting persecution of Falun Dafa's 100 million spiritual practitioners, is a sin so egregious that it will simply not go unanswered. It is a skeleton in the closet hanging over the head of very literally almost every major corporation, billionaire, and government on this entire planet. It's something you really have to educate yourself with, and I would recommend reading the Minghui website and looking at Shen Yun Performing Arts and Shen Yun Creations to learn more as soon as possible. So when it comes to the Nasdaq, is this a rally that you can go long on? Have we bottomed? What we experienced today is a no-news Monday after a raid on the low following August options expiry on Friday. If price action revisits 15,250 you still cannot say we have bottomed. And then the problem is, this "bottomed" can simply include a run to 16,000 or a breaker-raid to 16,500. Of course, a 5% move on indexes is well worth going long, never short, but too many equities and all the commodities do not indicate that it's really time to go long in any meaningful capacity. The most painful scenario for BOTH bulls AND bears is this: 1. Dumping hard into October 2. Retracing it all into December 3. 2024 opens as a disaster that only DONALD TRUMP can save us from, if he manages to escape 295,999,999 years in jail for Xeeeeeeeeeting about election fraud. I say the above to point out to you what total balderdash the prevailing narratives and brainwashing are and that you should really look at things with clear eyes. It's only us small follower accounts who don't get promoted very often that even have the chance to tell you the Truth.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by LordWrymouth
1
#ES_F Overview and Prep for the Week This chart was made using volume profile to try and capture areas of interest and bigger picture over all. We broke into this range June 12th, held above and that gave us a test higher where we found our first good resistance and sold back down to the break out area where we ran out of supply to go lower and price came back inside Value. End of the month once we took the stops over the middle of Value that gave us short covering and a move outside of Value but that was a Friday before a holiday so went sideways and closer to RTH we broke back inside taking the stops to give us the flush. Selling looked strong but we never broke VAL instead we found the bid that took us back towards VAH where after we took the stops from previous failed break out it gave us the buying to take us into resistance. What can we see now? Well few things that stand out here, so far this was 1st test of resistance, can see we got extended away, it was done during Globex hours when volume is lighter and its much easier to move the price around. We hit the top of double value area, came back in, tried to break out and failed. All this kind of tells us that there is chance this is failed break out away from this range for now, this also tells us that now we can possibly target the middle of this doubled value area and if we break that we could target the bottom of it which would put us back around 4490s-80s for this week with maybe a bounce from there? I think we have to see here how long it takes for us to come back in as we could potentially find some support here and do some chop unless we get some size selling that will break it quicker. Another question is will we break it after just first rejection from the high or might we try to make another run towards 4540s before we get back under 4525-08 IF we get back at all, of course we could pull back, consolidate and make another push over the high but so far its not ready for that and we have those lower stops lined up around 25-08 area that if we take could give us more selling towards 4490-80. We could also take the stops, find support around 4500 to take us for another push towards 4525 that would build up some more supply to take us down towards support. This 4550-4480 is our balance area going into this week until broken and we trade within it. Levels to Watch Intraday : Current Support 4528.50-4519 Current Resistance 4551.25-4543.75 Targets if we build up enough to break Support if we Break Current : S1 4512.75-05.50 // S2 4487.25-79.75 Would need to see a break of 79-75 and hold under for Continuation Lower Possible to find support at S2 or Before around 4495 Resistance if we Break Current : R1 4562.50-70 Key area would need to see break for anything over.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
8/24 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Yesterday saw a clean uptrend move in ES, marking a major low after three days of higher daily lows. The relief bounce to 4418 and high 4420s was anticipated and played out as expected. The day ended with ES reclaiming 4400 and squeezing to the 4426-29 target. The market now sits 100 points off last Friday’s low, with key catalysts such as NVDA earnings and Jackson Hole on Friday ahead. Market Outlook: Bullish Premarket 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Up slightly 🌎 US Index Futures: Mostly up but areas of weakness 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Down a bit World Headlines NVIDIA reignites AI rally with their blowout earnings report. Key Structures The large rising uptrend channel connecting the March and May lows failed last Tuesday, causing a 120 point flush. Resistance is currently at 4500, with closer bottom indicator at 4470-75. The declining channel from the August high has resistance today at 4445-47 and support at 4310. The yellow declining channel from the August high was reclaimed yesterday, with support at 4429-23 today. Support Levels Key support levels include 4442, 4429 (major), 4423, 4412, 4403-06 (major), 4389, 4376-74 (major), 4368, 4345-50 (major), 4339, 4329, 4318 (major), 4308, 4300-02 (major), 4286 (major), 4273, 4265, 4247, 4241 (major), 4230-35 (major). Resistance Levels Resistance levels to watch are 4448 (major), 4454, 4470-75 (major), 4487-90, 4500 (major), 4512 (major), 4517, 4533 (major), 4540 (major), 4545, 4555, 4565 (major), 4580, 4593 (major), 4600, 4607, 4618-22 (major). Trading Plan The bull case today requires holding 4429-26 on any dips, ideally building a base in the range between 4429-4450, then taking a run to 4470-75 next, followed by 4500. The bear case begins on the fail of 4403, with a short at 4399 for a move down the levels. A fail of 4429-23 is another potential short entry point. Wrap Up After a big trend move and with NVDA big positive earnings, the general lean is that ES can defend 4429 and try the run to 4470-75. As always, following the price and not predicting is key. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
8/23 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap ES broke its three-day red streak last Friday by putting in a daily bullish reversal candle. This triggered a relief rally that started this week, squeezing 60+ points. Despite the volatility, ES has remained in the same position as it was on Friday/Monday in the 4390-4400 support cluster. The question now is whether ES is building a base for a bottom or setting up for its next leg down. Market Outlook: Neutral Premarket 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Mixed 🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Up slightly World Headlines Slowing European PMI data Key Structures The large rising uptrend channel in white connecting the March and May lows failed last Tuesday, causing a 120 point flush. To set a definitive “bottom” this has to reclaim and currently, resistance is way up at 4493. The August high has resistance at 4448-54 and support at 4315. The yellow declining channel from the August high is a failed bull flag with resistance at 4426-29. Support Levels Supports are: 4390-92 (major), 4382, 4376, 4370-72 (major), 4347 (major), 4333, 4317 (major), 4311, 4303-05 (major), 4287 (major), 4272, 4265, 4254, 4247 (major), 4230-35 (major), 4220 Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4400-4405 (major), 4413, 4418, 4426-29 (major), 4448, 4452 (major), 4468 (major), 4474, 4480, 4493 (major), 4512 (major), 4517, 4530, 4538-41 (major), 4549, 4560-62, 4578-80 (major). Trading Plan The bull case depends on 4390 holding and as of writing, we are hovering just above. As long as that 4390-4400 battleground holds, the relief bounce that began last Friday is still alive. The bear case begins on the fail of 4390. I’d look to short this. As always, I don’t chase. I’d ideally like to see some sort of final bounce attempt here, then 4388 would trigger shorts. Wrap Up ES is at a major inflection point here and is about to make a decision. I am prepared to react accordingly whatever path it chooses. My general lean though is that since 4390 has not failed yet, that ES can try to continue the relief bounce one more time (to 4418, high 4420s). 4390 fails though, we will head to low 4370s which is the last stop before new lows. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
8/22 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap In my last newsletter, I spoke about the bullish hammer candle reversal day we saw in ES after three straight red days. This was only the third green day in the entire month of August. As a result, I was holding long over the weekend with multiple setups to add to this. My general lean was that we could bounce more, to 4404, then perhaps 4420s before trying lower, and this is precisely what played out yesterday. Market Outlook: Neutral Premarket 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Down a bit 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Up slightly 🔮 Crypto: Down slightly World Headlines Reducing reliance on the US dollar in focus at the BRICS summit beginning today. Key Structures ES has done something yesterday for the first time in August: It put in two consecutive green days - a true rarity. The questions is, can bulls keep it going? The large rising uptrend channel in white connecting the March and May lows failed on Tuesday, causing 3 days of selling. To set a definitive “bottom” this has to reclaim and currently, resistance is way up at 4487-90. Support Levels Supports are: 4411, 4405 (major), 4392-94 (major), 4382, 4369-72 (major), 4345-48 (major), 4340, 4328, 4315-19 (major), 4304 (major), 4287 (major), 4275, 4267 (major), 4247-50, 4236 (major), 4220 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4422-25 (major), 4432, 4442 (major), 4448, 4465 (major), 4473, 4486-90 (major), 4500, 4511 (major), 4517, 4527, 4542 (major), 4560, 4575, 4580, 4585 (major). Trading Plan My trading plan is to be very cautious today, especially after a big, one directional move, below major resistances. Longs are risky (chasing into a resistance), and price loves to chop hard in these zones. I will be picking my spots very carefully and patience will be key. I will not be trying to predict the action, but rather react with no preconceptions. Wrap Up In summary, bulls aren't out of the woods yet by any means, but the fact we spent two days basing now is a healthier sign. My general lean is we can base build now 4392-4420s. This would set up a push to 4442+. If 4392 fails today, it's a big warning sign and I'd be quite cautious on longs below there. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
SPY - Are You Prepared If We Haven't Bottomed?When I made my July 29 call on the ES SPX Futures here: SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg We had anticipated that a retrace to the highs or a raid on the highs was on deck. And yet throughout August, price action has been extremely bearish across all commodities, indexes, equities, and bonds. We very suddenly went from talk of a new bull market to a dip that doesn't rip. In my August 5 call on QQQ, I note that the January of '22 fail pivots, which ended the bull market, that were taken out on all three indexes have not been raided on the ETFs. Nasdaq NQ - Is It Time To Sell The Rip? And although today's August 18 options expiry price action took out a key low, the bounce we got was also lethargic. On the 25th, the Federal Reserve will hold the press conference for the Jackson Hole event, which will not involve a rate hike, but a forward-looking statement of economic policy by Jerome Powell. Last year, this day hallmarked the nuke of the markets. This year, it may very well do the same when the bond market has to accept that 6% Fed Funds Rates are on deck before '24 and 6.5% may be on deck before Q2. The other bearish catalyst is the rapidly degenerating economic condition in Mainland China, which is still ruled by the Chinese Communist Party Xi Jinping has yet to throw away. I've heard that Evergrande is defaulting and that's put something like 1/3rd of a trillion dollars of commercial real state into the fire. The Yuan isn't in good shape. The whole country is in terrible shape because of the effects of the pandemic. The losses are a lot worse than what you see reported by the CCP to John Hopkins and presented on places like Our World In Data. This is really the key cornerstone of everything going on in the world right now. I have been warning about this ad nauseum in everything I post, and I think people will begin to understand what I have meant, and why I have said it, as changes in this world unfold in the next six months. China is a key market for Apple, and Apple is something of a pillar of the U.S. equities market, and yet, after the big earnings correction, it seems as if $198 was the ultimate top. Apple - So, You've Been Taught To Buy That Dip... And Tesla. with its Shanghai Gigafactory in Babylon and its reliance on the Chinese market, has just been an absolute disaster. Tesla - What To Expect Until September? Traders are often slow to react. "The trend is your friend, until the end," they say, and correctly. When we look at SPY on the monthly, we see that it's taken a monthly low for the first time since February. And when we look at it on the weekly, we get even greater clarity. And although sub 4,400 really ought to have been a place that it bounces to retrace and retest the tops at 4,650, the fact is that price action is not showing a willingness to bounce and take out upside targets. So far, what it has told us is that longers are trapped. And if longers remain trapped even after we take out the July low, it's safe to posit that the next target to the downside would be the June low at ~$416. "$416 what a fairy tale!" is what a lot of people say, and yet this is only 5% away from where we are now. Only 200 more points down before there's a chance of a possible reversal. In other words, these targets are not that far away. If they really are traded to, it becomes increasingly unlikely that there's going to be any kind of a retrace to the top, considering JP Morgan is some 15,800 contracts long on 4,225 SPX puts expiring Sept. 29 that have never been in the money. And so I want to say to everyone that the sooner you can flip your bias from bull to bear, perhaps the better. It may not be until Q4 that we see a bounce with how things are unfolding.
AMEX:SPYShort
by LordWrymouth
1
8/21 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap This week has been a masterclass in what I call “Technical Analysis 101”. The most significant technical event of 2023 occurred on Tuesday, with ES breaking down the uptrend channel connecting the March and May lows. This resulted in a 100+ point multi-day selloff, the deepest since before the March low. However, ES managed to put in a green recovery day on Friday, in the form of a bullish hammer candle. Premarket 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Down World Headlines The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) lowers short term loan rates slightly but disappoints markets by leaving longer term rates steady. Key Structures The large rising uptrend channel in white, connecting the March lows and the May lows, is the primary medium term channel. It failed on Tuesday this week, resulting in a significant sell-off. Other key structures include the declining channel in yellow and the resistance of the yellow trendline connecting the December and January highs. Support Levels The major support levels to watch are 4370, 4340-42, 4315-4305, and 4260s. These levels provide context to the daily price action and are not meant to be predictive. Resistance Levels The major resistance levels to watch are 4402, 4420-28, and 4487-90. Clearing these resistances would be a big structural win for bulls and could potentially lead to a recovery. Trading Plan In terms of resistances, I’d prefer to try shorts at the 4418 and 4428-30 cluster. Wrap Up Bears remain in control and any bounces are only relief until proven otherwise. My lean is that we can bounce more, to 4404, then perhaps 4420s before trying lower. If ES can clear that 4420-30 resistance cluster, there is a case for a more sustained bottom. 4370 fail triggers down direct. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 8.13-8.18 Last Week : Last week market went sideways between our Key Resistance and Current Support area which we established on Sunday. Selling seemed very mechanical again because we didn't have size plowing through important levels and continuing, instead we get holds/bounces then continuation which so far has been trapping more new longs on the way down who are looking for support or bigger bounces from here while filling lower. Thursday/Friday we finally saw breaks of 4487-79 Support and put in some volume under it as well but the break on Friday was done pre market hours and when RTH volume came in we were able to hold as market tagged the stops at 65-60 target but didn't hold/continue under trapping pre market shorts for support. We saw this time around that we didn't have strong enough buying to get us back over 4490s-4500 and we closed inside our Current Support for that week with more supply built up above. This Week : This week is a bit difficult to read because we are in the middle of a bigger range but we can look at what we currently have to work with. Overall I think we are still in correction lower as supply is coming out from above and we haven't seen anything to signal trend change to the upside on bigger time frames from here yet. Last week marked balanced in the lower part of this 4560-4490 range with failures to spend any time over Key Resistance area. Friday Globex built up enough supply to break the Support for the week but got no continuation after 65-60 tag, this should be our area to watch going into tonight if we open around it. So far again we are set to open under previous weeks settlements and that would mean as long as we are holding under 4510-4495 that should bring continued weakness. Going into tonight we have 4487-79 as an area to watch, will this previous Support now act as our Resistance or can the market find buyers to get back over it? If we can't hold this 87-79 area we have stops lined up under us starting at 75-70-65-60 area which we could go for if we either get selling or build up the supply. 4465-60 is an area to watch for any continuation this week, under it we can see 4445-37 // 4422-18 and maybe even 4403-4392 areas. Never know how much selling we will get and where the market will find the bid, if this is just trapped supply coming out and its not that much then we shouldn't see market go much lower if we do go there at all BUT just in case if enough selling comes in next Key Support area is 4375-60 and under. For market to regain strength again we would want to see it hold over 4465-60 and ideally be able to push over 4490-95 and 4510-02 area and hold as that would bring back stability and could bring in more buyers to head for higher stops, unless this happens I will only be looking for longs from lower Support areas after market shows holds and consolidations around them that look promising. If we do hold over 4510 we have 4532-25 as another Key Resistance, just over all not looking good for longs over 4500 right now unless we find a strong bid or buying that can push us over it first. I will be watching Globex tonight to see where we open and what we do at 87-79 area for possible continuation lower or if we start consolidating at/above then will wait for more information tomorrow. Levels to Watch : Resistance - Current 4490-95 Key 4508-02 // 4532-25 Support - Current 4479 // 4470-65 Stops under 4445-37 // 22-18 Next Key 4403-4392
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
2
8/18 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap The bears had their first major technical win since mid-February, breaking the perfect rising trendline from the March lows. This has triggered a "sell the bounce" theme with the bulls struggling to put in green days in August. The question now is whether there is a relief bounce on the horizon. Premarket 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down World Headlines Major Chinese property developer Evergrande is back in the news, this time filing for Chapter 15 to protect it during restructuring. Key Structures The declining channel extending from the July 27th high broke down on Tuesday, starting the cascade lower. The large rising uptrend channel, which connects the March lows and the May lows, also failed late Tuesday. This was the first technical success bears have had since March. Support Levels The most immediate major support that failed is now the immediate squeeze trigger on the reclaim of 4404. Other support levels include 4369 then 4340-45. Resistance Levels The backtest of the declining channel is now 4438 and was where we rejected yesterday. To set a "bottom", the large rising uptrend channel has to reclaim and currently, resistance is at 4480ish. The 4463-66 level we broke down from on Tuesday would likely also count as an early reclaim and is also significant. Trading Plan The plan for today is to continue to sell the bounce. A sustained bounce will only come when a resistance clears. The two big ones are now 4393 then 4404. A short squeeze could occur if we can reclaim that 4404. Wrap Up Bears remain in control. The general lean is that ES can test 4369 next level down, then perhaps try another sustained bounce there and if it can’t reclaim 4393 then 4404, we simply continue lower down to 4340. A squeeze could occur above 4404. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
Apple - So, You've Been Taught To Buy That Dip...Apple has really been, perhaps arguably, the key reason the bear market rally has been as extreme as it has in 2023. Looking back to January, there really has not been even a single genuinely bearish day. But with Q2 earnings as a catalyst, we now have signs of a genuine and significant reversal pattern, and at an all time high. It's very evident on monthly bars. Weekly bars are even more obvious, showing that today, we took the July low, and there's no luft to the bounce. Long is a bad trade and short is now a good trade, is what we're being told. "The trend is your friend, until the end" is a saying with a lot of wisdom. If you can figure out you've ran into "the end" in the first few hours, then you really will be a lucky person. A lot of people may be about to blow their accounts trying to buy that dip, which they've been conditioned to do so like Pavlov's dog and his bell. Apple is a company that's maintained close ties, all these years, to the Chinese Communist Party. You should always remember there is a difference between "China" and "the CCP." China is a 5,000 year old country with a culture of dynasties that were imparted since the Great Flood by the Divine. The CCP is a 100-year-old Red Demon whose existence was arranged to destroy humanity, the Earth, and the Cosmos itself. Xi Jinping has ruled both China and the CCP since 2012, and it's both a blessing and a curse for him. If Xi isn't intelligent enough to go Gorbachev-style and overthrow the Party in the middle of the US night, then Xi will go down in history as the leader of the rogue regime at the end, and will be responsible for everything it has done in history. This includes the 24-year-long persecution of Falun Dafa's 100 million spiritual cultivators. Although the persecution was started July 20, 1999 by former Chairman Jiang Zemin and conducted by the toad's faction all these years, and Xi has been killing and bankrupting the rogue faction's minions in the Anti-corruption Campaign, the problem with being tagged as the CCP's leader is that the head is always the first thing you cut off with the guillotine. So, here's the thing for Apple. I expect Apple to take the $176.93 July low, probably sometime next week, based on how the markets are reacting. From there, we may see a retrace. What this will indicate is that Apple's market, for the first time in 2023, has finally shifted bearish. What this is the canary in the coalmine for is a significant correction. You can actually see this kind of pattern play out strongly in Amazon's monthly bars, which I comment on in their earnings pattern below: Amazon - Greed, Just Like Speed, Kills I anticipated that SPX was due for numbers as low as 4,420~ in the below call: SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg And so the setup with Apple is this: Short any bounce, with a target of $174. Then, don't get greedy. Anticipate a bounce into the August 18 options expiry. But that bounce may be no better than a flirt with $190. From there, you can consider it a "Godshort" with a target below the 2022 $124 low. And what I want to say is that if Apple has topped, everything is topped. Everyone is greedy and blinded by greed, buying highs without fear. Buying highs without fear. Buying highs without fear! "We are fearful when others are greedy, and greedy only when others are fearful" is something Warren Buffett is notable for stating. And although Buffett doesn't qualify as any kind of a good man, the Truth is the Truth, even if a toad states it. Be careful. Things are about to change extremely quickly. Can you keep up? Can you enlighten to it? Missing the chance, there may be no further opportunities.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by LordWrymouth
8/17 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap August 2023 has been a unique month with 12 trading days, 10 of which were red. Tuesday, ES hit its most significant support level, leading to a continued grind down. This triggered shorts Tuesday for a breakdown trade, which finally followed through yesterday afternoon. After 10 of 12 days red, the question is whether the bulls can get a relief bounce and where. Premarket 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Down slightly 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Mixed World Headlines 8:30am Unemployment Claims 240K expected, 239K reported. The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. 8:30am Philly Fed Manufacturing Index -9.8 expected, 12 reported. Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in Philadelphia. 10:00am CB Leading Index m/m -0.4% Combined reading of 10 economic indicators related to employment, new orders, consumer confidence, housing, stock market prices, credit trends, and interest rate spreads. Key Structures The core structure remains a declining channel in yellow - extending from the July 27th high. Support today is now 4448, and resistance will be 4555-60. The large rising uptrend channel in white, which connects the March lows and the May lows, is the primary medium term channel which broke down yesterday. The reclaim of this structure will be the core objective for bulls in the coming days. Support Levels Supports are: 4424, 4411 (major), 4403 (major), 4394, 4382 (major), 4369, 4358, 4345, 4328-32 (major), 4312 (major), 4305 (major) Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4438-34 (major), 4448 (major), 4464, 4473 (major), 4493 (major) 4500, 4510-14 (major), 4524, 4533 (major), 4542 (major), 4555-59 (major), 4568, 4580, 4591 (major), 4598, 4607 (major), 4613, 4625 (major), 4641, 4657-62 (major). Trading Plan In terms of levels to bid direct, 4411 and 4403 are two very significant supports below here at which a knife catch long could be tried. For spots to add shorts, 4448 is fairly well tested now and may clear if we get back up there. 4473 would be one spot of interest, and 4510-14 would be the best area. Wrap Up This market is impossible to predict and I am in reaction mode. My loose lean if I had to give one is we sell to 4411, perhaps 4403 then try a rally there up the levels to 4448. We could see a green day off this but bulls will need to reclaim 4448 to have accomplished anything significant. 4403 fails, we start the next leg direct to 4383. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
Nasdaq NQ - Is It Time To Sell The Rip?Greed quickly became extreme at the end of July, and the beginning of August has severely punished bulls, who are still buying the dip and buying the dip. The July high on Nasdaq happened to occur along with the Dow and the SPX in that all three indexes swept out the January '22 pivot that amounted to a rejection that ended that unprecedented bull market. Looking at monthly bars, you can see how extreme this '23 bear market rally has been, and how far the Nasdaq is above its long-term trendlines, how the COVID points were never tested on SPX or Nasdaq, but were raided on the Dow... And you get some perspective on the weekly bars. Here's some key problems for bulls: 1. Equities don't like high interest rates. Big money is needed to move markets and that money likes to seek safe yield. When rates are really high, bonds are really cheap to buy, and money tends to flow into them instead of equities. 2. This means equities rallies in high interest rate environments are bear market rallies by definition. Smart money pumps and sells equities to fuel a buying spree in bonds. 3.With Fed rates pushing 5.5% and there being no chance of cuts until inflation goes from 4% to 2% sustained on a long term basis, ask yourself what really is the bull case that's going to lead to new all time highs? When you're dealing with multiple fundamental factors that are bearish, but price action is bullish, you absolutely have to be cautious, or else you're likely to get gibed. Moreover, geopolitical problems are really serious. The biggest problem is the situation in Mainland China with a Chinese Communist Party that is about to fall while the Western propaganda outlets report on absolutely nothing of significance. All the talk about "Taiwan War" is to make a pariah of Xi Jinping and his faction of Chinese nationalists. What all the globalists are really preparing for is how to take control of China when the CCP falls. To do this, they need to position a man that has been groomed to take control of the country, and this will be done using the Republic of Taiwan as a proxy. But "the best laid plans of mice and men" is an issue. Overhanging all of humanity's head like the Sword of Damocles is the 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide of Falun Dafa's 100 million spiritual practitioners by the CCP and former Chairman Jiang Zemin's faction. Although Xi has been killing toadJiang's toad faction for over a decade with the Anti-Corruption Campaign, the problem is that Xi is still the Chairman of the Party, and all of its sins in 100 years hang over his neck like a noose. If Xi is smart, he'll overthrow the Party Gorbachev style. And if he isn't, he'll go down with it. But either way, when the Party goes, the persecution will become the #1 issue that all of humanity will have to face, for the sin is extreme. Equities markets will not be bullish those days, and you truly will be in a new paradigm. So here's the short term price action on the Nasdaq. End of July and early August price action confirms that the top, for now, is in. This means that dips are no longer buyable. It's only that you can short the rips. This will remain true until a certain downside objective is met, and when this becomes true, that downside objective is pretty much exclusively where an old low is. We have two areas of concern for lower prices. One is the June low at 14,250. Although I don't expect the market makers to take this point before September, it certainly is possible. More significant is the 14,850 pivot from the end of June. This number happens to result in a raid on the psychological 15,000 level, there's a gap nearby, and it can serve as a useful level to bounce for heading into the end of August. Keep in mind that August's monthly options expire on the 18th, which leave a solid 9 trading days remaining before the end of September. While you might feel that these targets are too far away to be realistic, keep in mind that dumping to 14,100 from where markets closed on Friday is really only 8%. 8% on QQQ amounts to like $25 and isn't that big of a deal compared to what some other three digit stuff does in a single day. And maybe you really don't believe it either way. But take a look at Apple, the most important stock on the market. It's showing you all the signs that you'd ever need to see that it's either topped or will raid $200 once before going down: Apple - So, You've Been Taught To Buy That Dip... Same with Microsoft Microsoft - Is The Top Already In? Same with Netflix Netflix - I Hope You Like Catching Knives The scary thing about tops is that the first time you get the sell off, the sell off tends to hurt longs, scare them out, and then you get a bounce that flirts with old highs. And that pattern leads to the "sell low, buy back higher" phenomenon. Which results in people buying the tops, hard, and permabears missing their chance to be short and missing the entire move down. But if you understand what's going on, you can capitalize on the early downside, the early bounce, and Godshort the top and ride the trend down. It's hard to do because of human emotions and the interference of long periods of time. But the wisdom is right here to do it. A potential timeline for the downside to finish is literally as early as Wednesday, because August CPI is on deck for Thursday. Another option is that CPI leads to the blowout under 15,000 and the bounce is into the end of August. Beware the JPM Collar. Expiring September 29, they're long on SPX puts with a strike of 4,200. Just ask yourself if America's most keystone systemically important bank is going to be expiring worthless like retail traders do.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by LordWrymouth