Get started

ES

Sentiment Index UpdateToday I shared a video in my trading room of Tom Lee on CNBC post his CPI massive rally call which didn't materialize. One member pointed out: " Lol. The man in this interview is not “fearless.” He is having trouble getting it out, and he has concerns. He is impressed by the “pronunciation” of this move. " I share the sentiment chart so we can observe the mental psyche of both sides (Bulls and Bears) and how it never changes and just repeats. This sentiment causes buyers and sellers to vote each day through the buys and sells they execute...how they vote, provides us a visual pattern. This pattern is much more forecastable than the internal fundamentals. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
2
ES1: Will the bulls come back soon?ES has been following the bullish count almost to the dot for the majority of the year so far. Right now ES is on critical trendline and fib support and RSI has several points of bullish divergence. If the trendline breaks, it is still not the end of the world. But, if 4300 level breaks, then it will be very worrisome. Below 4200, the doom and gloomers may be correct about low 3k levels....but, right now, those numbers below are not in the plans yet. However, the bulls need to show up pretty soon here....
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by mukit1
8/15 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap As predicted, we saw a push to 4515 major resistance followed by a dip in the ES. This was no surprise as ES remained stuck in a 1.5 week bi-directional range, the largest of its type since May 2023, and December 2022 before that. Late in the day, we finally broke the range down. Premarket 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Down World Headlines Chinese central bank cuts interest rates in surprise move on more weak economic data. Michael Bury spooks investors with new big short. 13F filing shows he bought $1.6B of puts on SPY and QQQ. Fitch analyst warns of coming US banking downgrade. Key Structures We remain in an extremely choppy range between 4515 and 4459. This level was a major, multi-month trendline and after a full day of chop, it finally cracked. This is the most significant technical breakdown in many months. ES has now been red for an incredible 9 of the last 11 days. The core structure remains a declining channel in white - extending from the July 27th high. Support tomorrow is now 4454, and resistance will be 4562. Support Levels 4454 (major), 4448, 4438, 4430 (major), 4423, 4416, 4400-4405 (major), 4395 (major), 4382, 4368, 4350, 4339 (major), 4327, 4312-15, 4306 (major). Resistance Levels 4461 (major), 4468, 4474, 4487-90 (major), 4505-08 (major), 4522 (major), 4534, 4545-50 (major), 4562 (major), 4568, 4579, 4591, 4597 (major), 4608 (major), 4621, 4634, 4650-52 (major), 4660, 4672, 4680, 4692-95 (major), 4705-4710 (major). Trading Plan Bears control until we can reclaim the area we broke down today, which is roughly 4461 now. I would be looking to trade the reclaim of this zone. If we can reclaim that white channel at 4461ish now, it will provoke a violent short squeeze and possible multi-week/month low. This would probably see a push back to 4505, dip, then onto 4560s. On the bearish side, bears control under 4461-68 zone now. Generally the bearish path here would have 4400 as a magnet with level to level bounces on the way down. Wrap Up Bears made a play for it today by cracking the 4461 level, and the coming hours will be key to see if its a real or failed breakdown. I will react accordingly. My loose lean is we can make our way to 4438, perhaps 4430 then try a larger bounce there. If 4461-68 reclaims, bottom is probably in. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
8/14: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap July, the second most bullish month of the year, saw three consecutive weeks of growth, rallying 220 points. August started with the first red week in three, followed by a more turbulent descent this week. However, August is traditionally a consolidation month, with a 0.1% average return over the past 20 years. This pattern of a choppy first half and stronger second half has been evident this year, with ES making slight new lows then squeezing all week. Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Up World Headlines Renewed concerns about the health of China’s economy as it’s largest private wealth manager missed payments Key Structures The core structure is a declining channel in yellow, extending from the July 27th high. This is a bull flag, however, it only becomes one on the breakout. Patterns exist only as probabilities until they confirm. Support of this is now 4465, and resistance will be 4580. Other important structures include the major June/July resistance that started the current leg up, shown in purple below, and the large rising uptrend channel in white, which connects the March lows and the May lows. Support Levels Supports are: 4480, 4474, 4464 (major), 4457 (major), 4448, 4435, 4426 (major), 4410, 4395-4400 (major), 4388, 4380, 4367-70 (major), 4350, 4339, 4322, 4305-10 (major), 4288 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4493-88 (major), 4500, 4509 (major), 4518 (major), 4532, 4545 (major), 4555, 4564, 4568-71 (major), 4580, 4587-92 (major), 4607 (major), 4618, 4633, 4644 (major), 4665, 4670, 4681-84 (major), 4692, 4704 (major), 4724, 4733 (major), 4750-55, 4770 (major). Trading Plan The bull case today depends on the 4457 zone holding, and ideally, it does not even test again. An ideal bull case would look something like ES continuing to base between 4475 and 4488-93, then pushing up to 4509, 4518, then dipping again before tackling 4545. The bear case begins on the fail of 4457. Shorting here is a break-down trade, which requires a good read of the price action to execute well. Wrap Up We are currently in a choppy phase. The loose lean is that we can continue to base above the 4457 level and below 4492, then try to push up the levels again to 4509 then 4518. A dip there is likely. If 4457 fails, shorts trigger for a large leg down - and this leg could last days. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
Weekly Update: Nothing Lasts Forever. NOTHINGI vividly recall a few years back having just finished labeling the above chart of the SP500 from inception. I labeled the chart and included most of the historical events that occurred over the course of that time. As a trader, I wanted to have a quick reference visual picture of price action during war time, innovation, and societal change, juxtaposed on my EWT count. Afterwards, I plopped on the couch and wanted to “Veg Out”. As a full-time trader and analyst, my mind was kaput. Exhausted... I wanted to watch something on TV that required no more of my brain energy. I turned on the History Channel and subsequently settled on this series called, “Life After People”. As the series progressed, I went from mentally exhausted to engaged. The simple summation of the series was that despite us having built sky-scrapers, cities, bridges, etc., if people we’re no longer around, the sum of the proof we ever existed on earth would eventually get overrun, deteriorate, and the final result would be recycled by the planet into the sum of its elemental parts. The series referred to this process as Entropy. I wondered if the time I spent laboring over the machinations of price action since pre-industrial America was in fact, the natural order of progression. Birth and death. Start and finish. I looked up the definition of Entropy and here it is. Entropy is a scientific concept, as well as a measurable physical property, that is most commonly associated with a state of disorder, randomness , or uncertainty . The term and the concept are used in diverse fields, from classical thermodynamics, where it was first recognized, to the microscopic description of nature in statistical physics, and to the principles of information theory. It has found far-ranging applications in chemistry and physics, in biological systems and their relation to life, in cosmology, economics, sociology , weather science, climate change, and information systems including the transmission of information in telecommunication. Every known thing, will eventually succumb to Entropy. I found the concept of entropy, captivating, thought provoking, and I couldn’t help but wonder if entropy applies to what I do. I’m a full time trader. When I am asked what I do for a living, that is always my response. But I also associate with being termed a financial pattern analyst, an Elliotition, or just a plain ole’ analyst. As an Elliotiion, I practice the financial forecasting principles discovered by RN Elliott in the early 1930’s. My association with Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) was a normal one, as I never conceded price action was random. Even as a young investment banker in my twenties, I always had this nagging notion, that however subjective or complex the stock market appeared to be, that eventually a simple construct would emerge that would lift the veil of the random, to allow for a more scientific methodology to answer the movements of stock prices and markets. My introduction to the principles of Elliott Wave Theory started that quest for answers to seemingly unanswerable. In Elliott Wave Theory, counter-trend patterns such as waves 2, 4 and B, are areas of potential complexity. It is within these particular wave degrees that some of the most obscure financial price action patterns come into view. From triangles, to WXY's, and the gamut of pattern complexity carves out their shapes here. To even the most seasoned Elliotition these areas can cause confusion, mislabeling and undoubtedly, uncertainty. In the intermediate sense, they mean less. But when observed in the larger cyclical timeframes, these areas are always associated with economic and/or societal change. The last financial supercycle waves took place on October 1929 wave (I), and April 1932 wave (II). Post 1932, financial prices have advanced seemingly unabated for 90 years. During this 90-year timeline, humanity has advanced in technology, medicine, communication, etc…all of which have impacted living conditions and average life span. These advancements changed migration patterns, mobility and communication. I can’t help but think, is now the precipice of where our 90 year advance and the natural order of entropy have hit a tipping point and henceforth, entropy now has statistical favor? Granted I am not skilled to discuss societal matters or medicine, etc…but from an analysts perspective…Is flat to down now the path of least resistance in the markets for the foreseeable future? Along the way of the 90 year advance in the SP500 you can see the historical events that have occurred and their impact on price action. Those price action sub-divisions were the result of the best and worst of times post 1932. My children, now grown adults, were financially shaped most by the 2008 financial crisis. However, in the grand scheme of super-cycles…you can barely make out those declines on the above chart. The final anecdote I’ll share is in 1991, when my wife and I bought our first home. Making what we believed to be one of the largest purchases we would make in our young lives, we watched mortgage rates as they flucuated. Then, we pulled the trigger to lock in rates, due to a short term dip, and at the time, felt we were wiser than most. So happy with our shrewdness in locking in 9.75% APR on a 30 year fixed mortgage. In retrospect, mortgage rates never went back above 10%. The last two decades, fiscal policy was on a longer term trajectory to 1-3%. We were not the gurus we made ourselves out to be back then. Maybe that trajectory down was a reversion to the mean in the post Larry Summers Fiscal policy of the mid to late 1970’s. Seems so now with the benefit of hindsight. But now it feels like that again…but this time the reversion to the mean is a post Ben Bernake fiscal policy. I can’t say for sure, as I do not posses that kind of foresight with respect to interest rates. What I can say, is having analyzed 150 years of price action, financial entropy is starting to rear it’s head. If this is in fact starting price action of a supercycle wave (IV). The buy and hold strategy is dead. This will be a traders market for at least the next two decades, or more. Case in point…observe the area in the red box on the above chart. This area is a primary circle wave 4 of one lesser degree within a cycle wave III. That wave 4 consoldation lasted from 1996 until the beginning of 2013. That was manageable. That was also 17 years of price action digestion from the previous 1974 stock market bottom. Since our previous supercycle events, we have experienced wars, advancements in technology, medicine, migration patterns OH AND WE EXPERIENCED a global pandemic. Mirroring what led up to previous (I), (II) wave degrees. I don’t post this to scare readers, nor do I seek ANY attention. I do not ever see myself as being referenced as the trader who called the top of some market in some time. I forecast these things to evaluate if I can make money as a trader from the forecasts. In conclusion, I’ll leave you with one of the wisest quotes I ever heard as it pertains to what I wanted to achieve as a trader when I started. Its not from a wise greek philosopher. Its from Cuba Gooding Jr. in the 1996 movie Jerry Maguire. “I’m already famous…now just show me the money”
SP:SPX
by maikisch
4
#ES_F Day Trading Prep For the Week 8.07-8.11Last Week : Surprisingly last week played out perfectly just had to be a little patient with things, last Sunday we noted that market needed either a strong push over 4615-10 and hold above or consolidate under 4603 before pushing over 4615-10 to possibly continue higher and if not the buyers who are not getting the upside here for weeks will start selling which can start triggering lower stops and if we take take out Swing Stops we can see lower Key Support at 4532-25 and Cost Basis under at 4525-4502 tested. We did get a push over 4615 but it was done end of day Monday after consolidating over 4603 not under. We spent some time over it Tuesday Globex but failed to hold over. Tuesday RTH breaking, putting in time/volume and closing under 4603 signaled weakness and confirmation of trapped longs over 4603 as they tried to keep it over 4615 and failed, bid under 4590 was removed and we opened on the gap lower which started our trip to lower targets. This Week : Friday we got a nice pull back towards Supply area and found more selling which gave us the break of 4525-4502 cost basis. Going forward this might be our potential Supply area into this week as we did put in time and volume above it and failed to hold. Not only did we break 4508-02 but we also took out the minor stops just under it after hours. Depending how we open (maybe another gap?) but if we fail to get back over 4508-02 and hold this could bring in more selling as we would be again under the Settlement, if that's the case then we can target lower targets. We have Current Support at 4487-49 but I wouldn't put too much trust in it, with some size we break it... Under we have untested end of day Spike Base at 4465-60 and another Cost Basis under it at 4460-45, both are good targets if we see continuation. We would need to see 4445-37 break and hold under for any more downside. IF this is size trying to get out of the market we will go through the levels like they don't matter but so far its been very mechanical because we can see how we get responses after the tests and still get pull backs to trap more supply on the way down. For the market to go back up we would need to either bounce from 4487-79 or consolidate over it and get back over 4508-02 with good hold hold then we could see a move higher to retest our previous Key Support which we broke but that is now Supply area we would need either a strong bid or a nice consolidation under to get back over it I would think. We can look for possible quick longs from lower Supports if want to trade long as those areas usually have some buying around but over all better trades might be short this week. We take it day by day because everything can change, that's the way its set up now. Levels to Watch : Resistance // Current 4510-02 // Key 4532-25 If Above can target 4548-43 Stops Would need a hold above to continue Support // Current 4487-79 Under can target 70-65-60 Cost Basis 4460-45 Key Support 4445-37 Would need to be broken for any continuation Lower Area of interest just in case : 4422-18 // 4403-4383
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
3
8/11: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Yesterday, CPI delivered as expected with plenty of large, bi-directional swings and traps. Despite this volatility, ES followed the general trade plan well, defending the 4493 support zone and continuing the rally to high 4530s. The market closed right at the 4493-88 level, which has been tested six times since last Friday. Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Down slightly World Headlines Producer Price Index reports higher than expectations. Key Structures The core structure remains a declining channel, extending from the July 27th high. This is a bull flag, however, it only becomes one on the breakout. Support of this is now 4467-69, and resistance will be 4580. Support Levels The support levels for today are 4475, 4467-69 (major), 4452-55 (major), 4446, 4438, 4431, 4423 (major), 4413 (major), 4397-4401 (major), 4383, 4367 (major), 4351, 4338 (major), 4327, 4317, 4310 (major). Resistance Levels The resistance levels for today are 4492-88 (major), 4500, 4509-13 (major),4522, 4527 (major), 4539, 4543-46 (major), 4554, 4560 (major), 4570, 4580-85 (major), 4592, 4598, 4608 (major), 4617 (major), 4625, 4635, 4643 (major), 4650, 4657 (major), 4665, 4681 (major). Trading Plan The bull case today would involve ES defending the 4469-67 zone lowest, then reclaiming that 4493-88. From there, we’d make the same trip - back to 4509, dip, then up again to 4540s. If we do flush again today, 4450 is the last shot for bulls. The bear case begins on the fail of 4469-67. I’d need to see a bounce or failed breakdown here to drain demand from the level, then I’d consider short perhaps 4466 for the move down the levels. The real sell comes on the fail of 4452-55. After an initial bounce to drain demand, I’d be looking to short the breakdown here perhaps 4445 for a move down the levels. Wrap Up These remain complex conditions, but also prime conditions for traders who just trade the levels and aren’t focused on trying to predict the price action. My general lean for today is that ES can defend that yellow flag support (4469 lowest), then reclaim 4493 to try back up to 4509+ again. If 4469 fails, we test 4450. Real selling starts below. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
8/10: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap The month of August has seen a shift in trading character, with massive bi-directional swings in the ES. The ES made four full round trips from the 4535+ zone down to the 4480-90 zone since Friday alone. On Tuesday, the ES rallied to 4532 then dipped back down to the 4480-90 zone and held. The 4493-88 zone remains the most important area in ES, as it back-tests the zone we broke out from on July 12th, triggering a 3 week rally. Today is CPI day, which are typically the most volatile and difficult trading days of the year. Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly up 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Down 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down slightly World Headlines It’s inflation day. US Consumer Price Index inflation prints slightly below expectations at 3.2%. Key Structures The core structure now remains a declining channel in yellow - extending from the July 27th high. This is a bull flag, however, it only becomes one on the breakout. Support of this is now 4475, and resistance will be 4580. Everything inside equals consolidation. Support Levels Supports are: 4493-87 (major), 4484, 4475 (major), 4467, 4459, 4453-48 (major), 4438, 4420-23 (major), 4410, 4395-4400 (major), 4382, 4368 (major), 4351, 4340-45 (major), 4327, 4317, 4310 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4508-04 (major), 4521 (major), 4528, 4538-40 (major), 4547, 4559 (major), 4569, 4579-83 (major), 4592, 4598-4601, 4614-17 (major), 4624, 4631, 4639-43 (major), 4647, 4660, 4670, 4677-80 (major), 4692 (major), 4705. Trading Plan For CPI days, price can squeeze very hard, through multiple levels so any shorts that are counter-trend must be taken small and at your own risk. The 4538-40 zone remains a strong resistance. If ES were to dip, this is the spot before we head to 4579-83. Bull case today: We are clinging right to that major 4493-88 support zone right as I write this. As long as this general cluster keeps holding, the bull case is alive and well. Bear case today: Begins now on fail of 4475. As always - I don’t chase. I’d need to see a bounce there, followed by a base building. Then I’d consider short perhaps 4472. Wrap Up CPI day - it is not possible to predict and we can easily see 4300s or 4600s (or absolutely nothing). I’ll be reacting and picking my spots. If today were a normal day, my general lean would be that we would keep defending this 4493 support zone (4475 on any spikes down) then continue the rally to 4509, then onto high 4530s. Dip there before higher. 4475 fails, we sell. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
8/9: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap The week started with a squeeze due to ES back-testing the crucial 4493 level from its July 12th breakout. This led to a technically perfect 48 point rally on Monday. However, markets are known to be unpredictable and often trap players in a cycle of relentless dip buying and selling. Tuesday saw a sell-off from Monday's highs down to 4480s, followed by a hard squeeze in the afternoon. The squeeze started once again from the 4487-93 zone. Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up a bit 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Mixed 🔮 Crypto: Up World Headlines White House will announce today new investment restrictions in advanced technology industries such as advanced semiconductors, artificial intelligence and quantum computing. Key Structures Several key structures are in place, including a declining channel from the July 27th high, which is technically a bull flag. Support for this is now at 4493-87, and resistance will be at 4581-85. Other noteworthy levels include 4509, which has been a dominant magnet this week, and 4493-87, which represents major June/July resistance. Support Levels The support levels to watch are: 4515, 4505-09 (major), 4493-88 (major), 4475, 4464-66, 4450-53 (major), 4443 (major), 4432, 4420-23 (major), 4411, 4400 (major), 4387, 4370, 4362 (major), 4351, 4345 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4532 (major), 4540, 4548 (major), 4558, 4574, 4581-85 (major), 4597, 4607 (major), 4614, 4625, 4637-40 (major), 4655, 4665, 4674 (major), 4687 (major). Trading Plan Bulls need to hold the 4493 backtest, and 4509 should continue to hold as well. If 4509 fails, it could lead to a trip back down to 4493-88. For bears, 4509-05 needs to fail. In terms of adding on strength, a nice bull flag overnight below 4520 and above 4509 could lead to a push to 4530+. Wrap Up Bulls defended an important support at 4493, and now need to keep running this. The general lean is for bulls to continue defending 4509, then run to 4530 or so, dip, then 4548. If 4509 fails, it's back down the levels again.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
Weekly Update: Are we Headed for Bad Times?I have been on Trading View for almost a year now. In that timeframe I have been fortunate enough to have almost 2,600 people who follow my work, shared almost 700 ideas within that community, and founded my website for paying members. Yesterday, we held a training / education Zoom call and dissected the move up off the October low of 3502. The purpose of this call was to strictly adhere to EWT rules & guidelines as we went through the chart literally day by day. The quick version of the outcome of that call was we have topped in the primary B countertrend rally. This conclusion was reached largely because of 2 major areas of focus from the October 2022 lows. The initial pattern, and the final impulsive portion of the pattern from March until the recent highs. Now I know most people may find this hard to accept. I fully expect the comments section to be lively but the notion of the initial portion of the pattern started off as a leading diagonal, is just plain wrong . Please allow me to explain. In preparation for this training, I spent time putting together my deck of slides, with an agenda to refer back to the live chart. As I went through the pattern and spotted what some Elliottitions would consider a leading diagonal off the 3502 bottom, I decided to spend some time researching Leading Diagonals. The reason being the theme of the call was the proper application of EWT rules and guidelines. So I wanted to be sure I was not assuming when I applied rules associated with ending diagonals to leading diagonals. What I found was eye-opening to me because I never questioned what LD’s were. Like some, I have always applied diagonals (ending or leading) as 3,3,3,3,3’s. For the Elliott Wave uninitiated this would be a series of abc’s but labeled as 1,2,3,4 and 5 with the 4 overlapping the 1. NOT SO FAST! My research turned up that although Ending Diagonals are a legitimate Elliott Wave pattern with governing rules, the larger EWT community is not 100% agreed on Leading Diagonals. Here’s an excerpt from AJ Frosts and Robert Prechter’s book, “Elliott Wave Principle”. Leading Diagonal It has recently come to light that a diagonal occasionally appears in the wave 1 position of impulses and in the wave A position of zigzags. In the few examples we have, the subdivisions appear to be the same: 3-3-3-3-3, but the jury is out on a strict definition, as 5,3,5,3,5 that overlap are also accepted. These patterns were not originally discovered by R.N. Elliott but have appeared enough times and over a long enough period that the authors are convinced of their validity. The notion of an LD is a relatively new idea that, in truth is accepted among many Elliottitions, but not all due a lack of governing rules. Well, I now have a quandary with respect to my upcoming zoom call with my membership. The entire basis of the call is the proper application of EWT Rules and or Guidelines. If there are no agreed upon rules, let alone guidelines, what do I do when the call begins and we start to examine the initial pattern off the 3502 bottom? I had already announced and scheduled the call. I decided to apply both loosely mentioned counts to this pattern (3,3,3,3,3 and 5,3,5,3,5) …and guess what? None of them apply. Not even close. You can go through the pattern yourself and what anyone is going to come away with when analyzing the initial pattern from 3502 on October 13, 2022 to the high of 4180 on December 22, 2022 is a an abc. If you have any doubts here’s the pattern zoomed in. So, based on the initial pattern being an abc...this entire move from start to finish was going to be corrective, or a countertrend advance. Trend being down. The last portion of the pattern that is impulsive starting in March 13th, 2023 until July 27th, 2023 should be labeled as following: C waves will normally terminate at the 1.618% fib extension....in which price did. Therefore, I firmly believe we have topped based on the fact that the leading diagonal may not even be a legitimate Elliott Wave pattern at worst, and at best, if it exists, has loosely based governing rules or guidelines. Lastly the impulsive portion of the pattern from March to July terminated at 1.618% of the initial pattern. I think it's a VERY VERY high probability we topped in July....and more importantly...should lead to a decline that could signify bad times ahead. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
8/8: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap As predicted in my last newsletter, the ES saw a relief bounce after putting in 4 consecutive red days for the first time since May. I went long late on Friday afternoon at 4493 and we saw a rally from 4493 on Friday to 4522 overnight on Monday, followed by a dip and then a continued rise. This was due to a technical backtest of a 3-week ascending triangle that broke out on July 12th. Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly down 🌍 Europe: Down a lot 🌎 US Index Futures: Down a lot 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Up a bit World Headlines China CPI and PPI data show deflation becoming a serious concern Moody’s downgrades numerous US regional banks and puts six larger banks on watch Key Structures The core structure now is a downtrend channel, extending from the July 27th high. This is a bull flag, with support at 4493-87 and resistance at 4592. Inside this structure, the 4550 zone and the 4528 level are noteworthy. The large rising uptrend channel in white, connecting the March lows and the May lows, is the primary medium-term channel. Support Levels The major support levels are 4527, 4509, 4493-87, 4475-70, 4448-51, 4438, 4421, 4397-4402, 4350-55, and 4307-4311. Resistance Levels The major resistance levels are 4538, 4556, 4577-80, 4591, 4620, 4634, 4668. Trading Plan I'm still holding my leftover 10% runner from 4493 and will only add if we get a good dip. After yesterday's rally, I think tricky, tactical, back and forth action is likely today. The best entry would be if we clipped 4509 support then popped to 4515. I'm not interested in buying the 4509 again as it's no longer a fresh level. In terms of shorts, I favor 4556 and 4577-80. Wrap Up While we dip today, bulls will want to defend that 4509 support at the lowest. The direct bull case would look something like holding above 4527, popping to 4549 or 4556, then heading up to 4577-80. The short-term bear case begins with the fail of 4509. I think things likely get tactical today, rewarding level to level day traders only with no bias. Expect bi-directional action. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
8/7: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap August started off with a bearish week for ES, marking its first red week in a month. The month is historically bearish at the start but bullish towards the end. Last week saw a rare three consecutive red days, a pattern only exceeded once since the March low. A relief bounce was anticipated, with a target of 4550, which played out as expected. ES then experienced its 4th red day in a row last Friday. Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Down slightly 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Up a bit 🔮 Crypto: Mixed World Headlines Bond market volatility continues as Fridays strong bounce is starting to look like a dead cat bounce this morning. Key Structures Several main structures are being monitored, including a new downtrend channel extending from the July 27th high. This is technically a bull flag, but only becomes one on the breakout. Inside this structure, the 4550 zone is significant, having been tested three times and failed, triggering a 50 point sell. The 4524 level is another critical point, acting as support for the ascending triangle that broke out on July 12th. Support Levels Key support levels include 4493, 4487, 4475-73, 4461, 4448-53, 4443, 4425-30, 4413, and 4395-4400. Resistance Levels Resistance is found at 4509, 4515, 4520-24, 4534, 4538, 4547-50, 4555, 4567, 4578-80, 4585, 4592, 4597, 4609, 4617, and 4624. Trading Plan A small long position was taken at the 4493 level last Friday. If this zone fails, the market could free fall again, with the "major" zones being potential knife catch spots. For the bulls, the key hurdles are 4509 and 4524. For the bears, the case begins on the loss of 4487. Wrap Up While bears remain in control, there is caution over short-squeeze risk after four consecutive red days. The general lean for today is that ES can hold the 4487-93 zone, then try to retest 4520-24, perhaps with a small dip, then try higher. If 4487 fails, the market could continue downward. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 7.31-8.05 Last Week : We continued our distribution above 4570 which is our bigger time frame Resistance area. We have been going sideways building up supply here with a few attempts to continue towards upper part of HTF Resistance at 4666 but were met with selling. Key Support and Key Resistance for the week provided great trades up and down the range. Thursday we trapped buyers over 4615-4603 Resistance which gave us a look above and fail, market flushed but wasn't just yet ready to break 4570-62 and who ever got too short Thursday at the lows provided us with buying on Friday to bring us back towards our trapped supply area or start at Key Resistance. This Week : We have been building Supply in this 4570-4615 range for almost 2 weeks with a failure to get current Key Resistance. We have stops lined up below us and trapped buyers above, this tells us if the market cannot get over 4614 area, hold and then take out 4628-23 then we shouldn't be looking for continuation higher for now. Previous Day and T2 highs are right above us with trapped time and volume over 4615. If market cant get over 4615 and accept then we would look for rotation lower as the longs who are buying in this range are not getting the upside and could start selling out. If we start triggering lower stops that can bring more selling. If current Cost basis and Swing Stops below 4562 get taken then we could see a move towards the stops at 4548.75-43 with a look under around 4637 and possibly test our next Key Support at 4532.50-24. Our next cost basis would be just under that and we could see buying front running that area on first attempts unless we will have size selling that could break it and continue then we could stay around that lower range this week that is IF we break of course. For the market to continue higher we would need to either see buying to take us over 4615 right away and hold above trapped last weeks shorts under for support or get under 4603, build a base above 4590 and then take out 4603-10 again, after that I think we could target next ranges Resistances and stops. Levels to Watch : Current Support : 4603-4598.75 If Broken Could Target 4589.50-84.75 // 4570-62.50 If Broken Could Target 4551.25-48.75-43.75 Next Key Support 4532.50-24.25 Possible to see buyers around 4537 on first tests Current Key Resistance 4614.50-9.75 IF broken and hold above Could Target 4623-28 Next Key Resistance 4646.25-4336.50
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
5
8/4: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap As we've moved into August, we've seen a shift in the “character” of ES, with volatility returning and large, bi-directional swings in the market. Despite this, it's important to note that August is not a “bearish month” but rather a seasonally neutral month, with a +0.1% average over the last 20 years. The focus for this month will be on tactical, unbiased level to level day traders. Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Down a bit 🌎 US Index Futures: Up a bit 🛢 Crude Oil: Up a bit 💵 Dollar: Down 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Up slightly World Headlines Bond market showing early sign of stabilizing. Key Structures The core pattern containing the entire consolidation since the July 19th high was a broadening formation, which broke down on Wednesday. This pattern suggests that bears control below and bulls control above. Other key structures include the rising support trendline of the purple ascending triangle and the large rising uptrend channel in white. Support Levels Key support levels include 4525, 4517, 4509, 4493, 4487, 4476, 4464, 4448, 4441, 4428, 4411, 4395-4400, 4382, and 4376. Resistance Levels Resistance levels to watch are 4534, 4542, 4550-53, 4560, 4565, 4577-80, 4583, 4592, 4599, 4607-09, 4618, 4623, 4630, 4639, 4650, 4661, and 4671. Trading Plan For today, the short-term bull case depends on the 4509 level continuing to hold. The bear case begins if the 4509 level fails. As always, it's important to plan your zones of engagement in advance, wait for entry setup, take a level to level piece, then reset bias from scratch, and get to the sidelines. Wrap Up With the return of volatility, August is shaping up to be an interesting month for traders. Key levels and structures have been identified for both bull and bear scenarios, and as always, the focus should be on tactical, unbiased level to level trading. With Apple earnings expected to introduce some volatility into the market, it will be important to stay reactive and flexible in your trading approach. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
8/3: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap The last newsletter discussed the potential for bearish seasonality in August for SPX. This was timely as volatility was unleashed shortly after the newsletter was sent out. The catalyst for the volatility and selling was the US credit downgrade, which triggered a loss of critical multi-day support. This led to the most eventful evening session of 2023, followed by more daytime volatility. Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Up strongly 🔮 Crypto: Down World Headlines The timing and reasoning of the Fitch Treasuries downgrade is being questioned, limiting the downside which was much worse when S&P Global downgraded 11 years ago. Key Structures The core pattern containing the entire consolidation since the July 19th high was a broadening formation, also called a megaphone. This pattern broke down yesterday and will need to reclaim support to trigger any sustained squeeze upward. The next major support down below 4553 is 4508-15. This is the support of the large, purple ascending triangle structure we broke out on July 12th. Support Levels Supports are: 4531-33 (major), 4527, 4516 (major), 4509 (major), 4497-93 (major), 4486, 4475, 4467, 4455 (major), 4441-46 (major), 4431, 4424 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4543, 4531-33, 4551-53 (major), 4560, 4565, 4575 (major), 4584 (major), 4592, 4599,4606-08 (major), 4613, 4620, 4624-26 (major), 4634, 4644, 4653, 4666-70 (major). Trading Plan For the bull case today, there is no short-term bull case until a resistance reclaims. For now, this is 4551-53 and reclaim there would trigger back to 4575, likely dip there, then probably back to 4605. The bear case today begins on the fail of 4531. One could short this 4527 or so with target of 4509-16. Wrap Up These are level to level traders markets and they are prime conditions. The focus will be on reacting to the action and not making predictions. If a prediction had to be made, it would be a backtest of 4553, perhaps a sell to 4509-16, then a rally from there. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
8/2: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap After the ES rallied and trended cleanly for +390 points from June to mid-July, the last two weeks have been characterized by a grinding summer chop. Despite testing the 4609 level six times in the last week with two failed breakouts, the ES has remained stubbornly resistant. Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down a lot 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Down World Headlines United States government debt loses it’s AAA rating as Fitch downgrades US Treasuries from AAA- to AA+ Key Structures The core pattern containing the entire consolidation since the July 19th high is now a broadening formation. This structure, called a “right angled, ascending broadening formation”, has support roughly at 4560 and resistance roughly at 4660. Support Levels The major support levels are at 4599, 4592-89, 4570-73, 4562, 4548-50, 4493-88, 4445-50, 4410-15 and 4403. Resistance Levels Resistance levels are at 4608, 4614, 4618, 4623-26, 4648-4652, 4661, 4682-88, 4706-08, 4717, 4726, 4736, 4750 and 4760-65. Trading Plan Given the current unpredictable chop, trading will be done very seldomly. If we do get some upside today, 4623-26 is considered strong and likely has one final sell off before any breakout. The bear case would begin on the fail of 4592-89. Wrap Up We remain in a period of low predictability chop and the focus will be on executing the above trade plan. If 4589 fails, it's short to 4570-73, bounce, then probably lower down to 4550. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
8/1: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap ES continues its characteristic bull market cycle of multi-day squeezes followed by wide rangebound consolidation under resistance, as it has done since July 19th. This pattern is expected to continue until a breakout occurs. Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down a bit 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Up strongly 🔮 Crypto: Down World Headlines Manufacturing data weak across China and Eurozone with Germany showing the steepest decline since the pandemic. Key Structures The triangle at 4609 remains the key structure, despite being somewhat "busted". This level has been tested six times in the last week and is proving to be a strong resistance. The ascending triangle at 4569-4571 is now support. The large rising uptrend channel connecting the March lows and the May lows is the primary medium term channel, with support currently at 4405 and resistance at 4650-55. Support Levels Supports are at 4608, 4602, 4594-92 (major), 4580, 4568-71 (major), 4556, 4549 (major), 4542, 4530 (major), 4515, 4500, 4488-92 (major), 4474, 4467, 4455-60 (major), 4442-45 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are at 4608 (major), 4617, 4622 (major), 4631 (major), 4641, 4652-55 (major), 4664, 4670, 4681-84 (major), 4697, 4705 (major), 4714, 4722, 4740-45 (major), 4751, 4762 (major). Trading Plan The bull case is in play above 4592 and 4600, with a potential breakout to 4622 and then up to 4652-55. The bear case begins on the fail of 4592, with a potential short at 4589 for a move down the levels. If 4592 fails, it's time to short. Wrap Up ES continues to consolidate and build its base. As long as 4600 holds, with any spikes down to 4592 quickly bought, ES can continue to base for a push to 4622, then a final dip, then a breakout up the levels to 4631, then the 4655 magnet. If 4592 fails, it's time to short. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
7/31: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap In the past week, the markets have shown a series of traps and failed breakouts/breakdowns, with a significant bear trap occurring last Thursday. The ES sold 75 points, only to bounce back, demonstrating the biggest bear trap in 2 months. The 4608 level has been resistance for a full week, tested 4 times with one failed breakout. Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Unchanged 🧐 Yields: Down slightly 🔮 Crypto: Up World Headlines Bank of Japan appoints new head of monetary policy while buying bonds to offset the fallout from last weeks yield curve control policy adjustment. Key Structures Two basic patterns are at play: the purple triangle with 4609 resistance and 4569 support, and a broadening formation with support around 4560 and resistance around 4650. The combination of these two structures does bias bullish in terms of breakout direction targeting 4650s. Support Levels Key support levels are 4600, 4588-91(major), 4580 (major), 4569, 4560 (major), 4555, 4547 (major), 4530-35 (major), 4515, 4493-97 (major), 4487, 4475, 4455-60 (major). Resistance Levels Key resistance levels are 4608 (major), 4615, 4622 (major), 4633, 4642 (major), 4650-55 (major), 4663, 4678-80 (major), 4689, 4698-4703 (major), 4712, 4726 (major). Trading Plan Bulls should aim to hold the 4580-90 cluster on dips, with a hyper bullish case seeing ES continue to bull flag above 4600 and below Friday’s highs. Bears need 4560 to fail to see any real selling and could look to short at 4558 for a move down the levels. Wrap Up In summary, the market continues to base build with 4609-4560 being complete, random chop. The general lean is that the range will fill out more, ideally by dipping into the 4580-90 support cluster again. From there, ES can try a push up the levels to 4622, 4642, 4650-55. The 4560 level needs to fail to trigger shorts, and it would likely be a significant one. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro