Get started

ES

#ES_F Friday 2.24.23 Day Trading Prep 2.23.23 Review : Thursday Globex spent time building structure over our Key Daily Support, RTH Open made an attempt at our 4030-25 Key Intraday Resistance area for the day and failed giving us a very nice trade towards our Daily Support. After we broke 4012-08 we broke structure that was built over it and we got more selling hitting out 3994-89 target and tagging 3976-71 Level but no break and that was our Key Level for a continuation yesterday and instead we got a push back inside Daily Support and a move all the way back to 4025 Resistance WHAT a crazy market we are in but this is what we trade using STRUCTURE to show us the way. 2.24.23 Prep : Globex again opened over Daily Support and built structure over it, as we can see now we made a stop run towards 4025 but we still had plenty of supply over that area. Once we ran out of buyers and broke 4012-08 we again started leaking lower and this time we have less buyers under us because we cleared them out yesterday, we are back at our Key Support areas with data coming at 830. We have Supply above us, we are inside T2 range, inside Previous Day range. T2 and Previous Day lows are both at our Key Support areas, will we break them today and get continuation lower to next support or will we get a reversal to take out support OR spend another day in balance? Chances are good to see continuation lower but with this market we have to be careful and watch for continuation at our key location because reversal can be quick, depending on what we do at 830, today we have Daily Support at 4012-3990 which for now seems we are breaking, Key Support for continuation lower 3976-71 if we break and accept below we will find ourselves under T2 and previous days lows which could bring in more selling and our lower target could be 3957-53 // 3944-40 and Next Daily Support area around 3930 - 3890. For any upside to happen we NEED 3994-89 or 76-71 to hold AND get back over 4012-08 and HOLD then we can see a move back over 4030-25 and make upper resistance targets in play. So far our signs are pointing lower until shows otherwise. Levels to Watch : Resistance : Key Daily 4030 - 4012 Key Intraday 4012 - 08 // 4030 - 25 // 4046 - 42 Intraday ? 3994 - 89 Support : Key Daily 4012 - 3990 (currently broken) // 3930 - 3890 Key Intraday 3994 - 89 // 3976 - 71 // 3957 - 53 // 3930 - 3927 *** Careful trying to trade long if we are under T2 low because that can bring on margin call selling.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Weekend Update: The Sky is kind of FallingLike most, the 2008-09 financial crisis had an impact on me, my family, my financial decisions, and pretty much everything. It was a life altering time period. Now, granted back then, I was a younger trader, and retirement was not on my radar screen. Fast forward 15 years into the future, and you bet, retirement is a blip on my radar screen now, and I’m paying attention. When it comes to retirement funds, I witnessed first-hand during the financial crisis of 2008-09, how people who had worked their entire life, saw the fruits of their life’s labor, dwindle to a pittance of what it was the year prior. So that time period in the markets had an effect on my perspective as I’m sure most of you reading this. 2008, I concluded was much like the stories my granddad told me of living during the great depression, and how that event shaped every decision he made until his passing in 2018. Now, I’m not prone to being “Chicken Little” and run around and say the sky is falling…. But this pressure on my head from the sky is kind of concerning. In my trading room, we held a training conference call this past Monday. I chose one attendee from the group to label a chart of price action. I told the attendees the chart they would be observing was a fictitious chart. This exercise is a function of helping novice Elliottitions come to an analytical thesis about the price pattern and structure their viewing. In this particular example, the attendee labeled a full pattern and stated a retrace of a certain magnitude was order. Now bear in mind, this is an exercise in structural observation and it takes a total of a five minutes to conclude. It is by no means a scientific conclusion. But to come to that conclusion in such a short period of time was worth discussing further. The pattern must be obvious for novice Elliottitions to form a conclusion in such short order. In truth, that exact chart used during the exercise was the SPX monthly cash market since inception. To the attendees it was labeled as the American Bottling Company, Inc., an obvious fictitious company. This was done to prevent the attendees from regurgitating the SPX analysis we discuss on daily basis. We discussed the exercise, and ultimately concluded that a retrace to the wave 4 of one lesser degree was in order from a minimum standpoint. I then, came clean and told the attendees they had just forecasted a 50% drop in the SPX . That forecasted low, in this very unscientific and quick observational analysis put the SPX cash index back to COVID-19 low of 2192 . Today, the SPX is at 4012.32. To get to 2192 would constitute a 45% haircut. I cannot stress this enough…that is the ideal retracement area. If you study Elliott Wave Theory, you’ll know that a wave 4 ideally retraces .382 of its wave 3 all the way up to .50%. If my analysis is correct, wave 3 started in the aftermath of the stock market crash of 1929 and concluded in January 2022. To retrace .382 of that price action is in the 2960 area and 50% of that retracement would equal 2300-2400. So the area at or slightly higher than the COVID-19 should get tagged. Let’s discuss how we get there. With respect to the impending downside, the first break in upside price action comes with a breach of 3901.75. A breach of that price changes the upside pattern we've been tracking since the October lows of 3502, into a new downside pattern. At that point in time 3788 comes into view. Depending on the structure this forecasted move down takes, I will be able to dial in short and potentially longer term targets. Support regions below that are 3590 and the October low of 3502. Any breach of 3590 brings the real possibility of 3300-2800 into view. I conclude with I have shared this analytical thesis of mine with my followers on TradingView.com on several occasions. Am I urging everyone reading this to sell? I cannot, nor will I, provide such direction. It would be irresponsible of me to word my warning as such. Let’s just say, when it comes to market price action, we have no shortage of opinions. Feel free to consider or dismiss mine. Additionally, I am not trying to be purposefully ambiguous. Let’s just say, for this trader, I am looking at moving all retirement assets to cash equivalents for an intermediate period of time, if we can get into my gray target box. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
4
SPY Daily Modeling turns BEARISH (RISK-OFF). PAY ATTENTIONMy advanced modeling and TV scripts recently turned BEARISH on the Daily SPY. This means the markets have moved into a RISK-OFF mode - likely preparing for additional downside trending. While the Weekly modeling continues to stay BULLISH, I'm writing this update to warn my followers that both the Rotational Modeling and the TT-3MACD strategies have turned BEARISH on the SPY. My US real Estate Modeling shows an incredible bout of price weakness, seller desperation, and broad SHOCK taking place for US Real Estate. This combined Real Estate and US stock market shock could lead to an incredible downside price trend if a credit/banking collapse unfolds (much like 2008-09). You have been warned. Follow my research. Move a good chunk of your capital away from risks. This is now a much more violent market event that could unfold in the near future. The Fed MUST address the extended price collapse that is currently gripping the US/Global markets. Things could turn UGLY very quickly if finance/banking/credit seizes up. Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
1
#ES_F 2.23.23 Day Trading Prep 2.22.23 Review: Wednesday Globex failed to continue lower, RTH Opened and failed to accept over 4012-08 and that gave us a test of 3994-89 bottom of our Daily Support where we found buyers on the first test. It was FOMC Day but things were still moving well. We did get another test and full break of 3994-89 which tells us we have supply but I think because it was end of day that instead of continuation we got short covering before the close back towards Supply without leaving our current balance area. 2.23.23 Prep: Daily Support held yesterday but are we getting a bounce, another tighter range balance day or continuation lower? We failed to break 3994-89 yesterday which told us we still had buyers and not enough supply at that time but do we have buyers strong enough to hold us and push us back over resistance? We know the buying yesterday was mostly short covering at Daily Support before the level break, IF today we cant get back over 4030-25 and get back under 4012-08 there is a very good chance to test that 3994-89 again and if we break this time we will again find us under T2 and Previous Day Lows which could bring further continuation to the downside if that will happen we can watch lower targets if we get under 3976-71 our lower Support areas will be in play. If we do hold 4012-08 and get over 4030-25 we can attempt a run our higher Supply area over 4046-42. If we fail to really get going anywhere today its possibly to stay in this 4012-08 - 4046-42 range as well, we watch level to level for continuation to either side. Levels to Watch: Resistance: Key Daily 4103-4084 Key Intraday 4030-25 // 4046-42 Key For Continuation 4061-56 Support: Key Daily 4012-3990 Key Intraday 4012-08 // 3994-89 // 3957-53 Key For Continuation 3976-71
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
MENT SPY DayTrader Page Update (2-22-23)I've been working on the TT-3MACD PineScript update for about 4+ days. It seems every time I make a breakthrough, there is more to attempt to build into it. PineScipt seems pretty cool so far. Documentation is great - but it is a process of learning how the engine processes things. My goal is to build a TEACHABLE solution for my followers - allowing them to make their own decisions based on my research and other strategies. Ideally - it is about teaching others when and how to trust their own intuitions. This video update shows you the FOUR components of my strategy so far: - The TT-3MACD Strategy (including entries/targets/reversals) - Running on a Heiken-Ashi chart - The Standard Candlestick chart - running the Linear Regression tool - The 3D Wave indicator - The Donchian Ribbon Indicator. Using these in combination with Fibonacci price theory (Higher Highs/Lows in an UPTREND - Lower Highs/Lows in a DOWNTREND) - should be just about everything any SPY Daytrader could want to learn to get started. It really is THIS SIMPLE. The only other thing you need to learn is position sizing techniques. In other words, when to be more aggressive and when to be patient (trading smaller position sizes). Follow my research and let's see if we can get all of my followers into a better place to start profiting from SPY price swings. I will post another update/video when I publish the MENT TT-3MACD strategy for all to use.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
ES - Just in Case...I'm publishing this as an alternative EW count. I've been suspicious of many of the attempts to label the waves off the 2022 top. This hypothesis will be labeled as a "WXY" to label a double zig zag pattern On the ES...my assertion is the true top was in Nov 2021. The ultimate top was part of a three wave move that I'm counting as part of a series of three wave moves making up the eventual decline to the June 15th 2022 low. I'm labeling this structure as W From that point the move up to the Aug. '22 high was a three wave affair that I am labeling X. The move down from that point to the eventual bottom in October was clearly 5 waves... (The first such decline wave pattern off the '22 top) This gets labeled A of Y The next structures make up the abc of B of Y. The ensuing move down, should this unfold as illustrated, will ultimately take out the Oct '22 lows. The Star on the chart is positioned perfectly at the 1:1 ratio of W:Y This is being published as an alternative to my previous posting for the ES/SPX road ahead. See link below. Best be prepared! Here is another view with a lower fib level depicting the "nuclear" pathway..
CME_MINI:ES1!
by oliverrathbun
3
#ES_F 2.22.23 Day Trading Prep 2.21.23 Review: Tuesday Globex made a move under Previous Day Low and our 4061-56 Support. RTH Opened, filled the gap and got continuation lower into our next Daily Support at 4012-08. The way we opened/drove made me think there is a chance to break Daily Support but market held after the break and that tells us that selling is still mechanical and that its just supply coming out no outside selling. 2.22.23 Prep: We are currently sitting on top of our Daily Support of 4012-3990, Globex made a move under 4012-08 took the stops but didn't have supply to tag 3994-89. Tricky day today with the Fed Minutes but we have some good references to watch. We are inside Previous Day Range and over our Daily Support and these will be key areas today, we are still under T2 range which means we should see more sellers at some point but we need to watch which areas they step in, if we don't have outside supply right now then then price could still head higher before finding sellers if sellers come in at all unless more volume comes in at RTH and they take it lower right away. We are at Support area and we have to treat it as such until broken. Right now 4012-08 // 4094-89 are our key areas for continuation lower and 4030-25 is what we will be watching to make a move higher. Our bigger supply areas for the day are over 4046-4061 and 4084-77 possible areas to watch where more sellers can step in if we get there. If Daily Support gets broken we will watch for possible targets down to 3976-71 // 3957-53 a potential area to find support. Levels to Watch: Resistance - Key Daily 4103-4084 Key Intraday 4084-77 // 4061-56 Intraday 4046-42 // 4030-25 Support - Key Daily 4012-3990 Key Intraday 3994-89 // 3976-71 // 3957-53 Intraday 4012-08 ? *** Caution as Minutes can bring big swings today at 2.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES_F 2.21.23 Day Trading Prep 2.16-17.23 Review: Thursday we failed to continue over 4170 and failed to hold 4143-37 which gave us a move to our lower target down at T2 low and a break of 4103-4099. Friday we opened at potential support area and were able to hold it during the day due to short covering before the weekend with a move back towards potential resistance towards the close but failed to get over it and get back towards 4100. 2.21.23 Prep: We are not counting Sunday/Monday action because of the Holiday. Currently inventory is short compared to Friday's close, we are under T2 low, barely inside Previous dat Range and are under Daily Support. Will we see continuation today and how far can we go? We will have to see what they got in store for us, we have now accepted in this 4080-4030 range, currently still have support at this 4061-56 area. Since inventory is short we might see some correction before or after open and from there we need to see if we will get a continuation move today or a reversal back towards 4100. For any move higher to sustain I think we would want to see price take out 4084-77 and base there before moving over 4100. For continuation lower we want to see us holding under 4084-77and eventually take out Previous day low and continue, Our next potential support is under 4030-25 which would be our next Daily Support at 4015-3990. The way we are looking today, we should see some continuation but anything can happen and we could balance some more. We have supply now but we also have shorts covering each step lower which is giving us these holds, until we see us run out of supply or a big bid come in direction could still be lower with 4030-15 and under an area where we could see buying. Levels to Watch: Resistance - Key Daily 4123-4100 Key Intraday 4084-77 // 4103-4099 Support - Key Daily 4012-3990 Key Intraday 4046-42 // 4030-25 // 4012-08 Current ? 4061-56 *** Treat today as Monday and it might need time to show the move this morning. Watch where we open
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
2
SPY bullflag continuation or breakdown? I think its safe to say many of us have been surprised by the strenghth of the market these past few months. Global economic uncertainty is at all time highs, but the market doesnt care. Thats one reason I prefer to play the trends as opposed to making predictions. All too often I see furus on twitter making fools of themselves calling crashes every other day when its so obvious buyers (big buyers)have been accumulation for quite awhile. Market behavior is something you can only learn with screen time and lord knows I've spent enough time to know that the market character changed some months back. That does not mean it can't change again in a heart beat. I'll be watching for the shift. On to my analysis....Whether or not we get a continuation of the bullflag -and resulting breakout will entirely depend on whether we can hold the bf channel bottom at 403. Keep in mind this is the 4th test of that channel bottom and each test weakens that support. Failure should bring us to the untested demand zone at 398-400 which also an inflection point because it coincides with the rising channel from Oct lows + the 50 ma is rising into that are and if spy is indeed in a bull market, the 50ma will act as support. Let me know what you think. I always appreciate feedback. Cheers.
AMEX:SPY
by GreenBoxTrading
The opposite Side Of A Wave-5 Rally - Plan BI received a question from someone watching my videos/research. The question was, "what is the downside risk for the markets if my bullish resolution fails". So, I created this video. This explains why the downside risks appear to be less than 35% right now compared to a 65% to 75% upside price resolution. Still, using Elliot Wave, we can't be 100% confident in the true future of price structure or wave structure. All we can rely upon is Fibonacci Price Theory which tells us if price is currently Bullish or Bearish. Right now, on this weekly chart, Fibonacci Price Theory suggests a bullish price trend is in place and recent Unique Low levels are the final defense of support (near $348). Follow along to better understand how I see/use Fibonacci Price Theory in all of my research as a method of letting price tell me what to expect in the future. The one other thing I would like to add is all previous market collapse events have aligned with cataclysmic economic events (9/11, Global Banking Crisis, Foreign Economic Crisis, Isolated Credit Risks). Without some cataclysmic economic event happening, it is very unlikely that US markets would contract extensively without some impulse event. So keep that in mind as we move forward. Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
SPY Cycle Patterns: Resolving volatility into March 2023This example video will help you understand how I use my predictive SPY Cycle Patterns in combination with traditional TA (Fibonacci and others) to prepare/plan for GAPS, trends, and opportunities for trading through the week. I'm a strong believer that you don't need to trade every minor trend. Taking 2~4 good trades a week across one or two symbols is all that is required to be able to generate 50% to 100% profit every week (using options). Just last week one of my friends used my SPY Cycle Patterns (and his own skills) to make over 700% ROI. It does happen. Watch this video. Next week will be very volatile in my opinion. Once we clear the upper resistance level, we should continue to trend up to $435 or higher. The burst of volatility will likely make for great trade setups - if you know what you are doing. Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
Weekend Update: Are We About to TOP (or Topped) in the ES/SPX?In our trading room we’ve been tracking what I have characterized as the final stages of a rally that began back in October at the lows of 3502. The question remains are we topping, or have we already topped? Longer term, I deduce there are two schools of camp from my CNBC White Noise in the background of my trading office. The first is we’re in a new bull market and the October lows are the lows. After some messy chopping around, we’ve built a strong base to attack the January 2022 highs later this year. Now to give this camp credit, (let’s call this camp 1) they’re calling for a consolidation of the gains so far. The second camp (let’s call this camp 2) , is we’re eventually headed much lower than 3502, and the January 2022 highs will be handily put in the rear view mirror for years to come. Did I say years?...I'm sorry, I meant at least a decade. I’m in camp 2. But let’s get something out in the open first. Camp 1 and 2 both acknowledge a consolidation of gains from October is in order in the short term. But that’s where our similarities end. In last week’s post, I provided details analysis and context surrounding my LONG-TERM analytical thesis of price being in a Super Cycle wave (IV) area of consolidation. I will not be rehashing that analysis again this week. Instead, I want to provide less of a long-term picture, and what is in store for us in the weeks and months ahead. The past week was filled with opportunity on the long and short side of price action. Today was the first day since the December lows of 3788 we started to crack. We’ve been steadfast in tracking a pattern that ends at 4242. Why? Because price has given us no indication that it will NOT get there. Until today. Now some of you may be saying one day does not make a trend. I agree. But put several of those together and that’s what you have. The beginnings of a new trend back down. The main chart shows how we cracked today. This price action, so far, does not constitute invalidation...but we're close. I consider 4025 the last line of credible defense. Below that, and I have to give credit to the larger downside pattern. To confirm the downside pattern, we have to breach 3901.75 on the ES. That's a long way away. Nonetheless, if we consolidate below 4150 and stay below that price level. Not only do I see a breach of 3901.75...but a breach of 3788. This would just be the beginning. Now if we can hold and not breach 4025. There is a weak case to make that 4242 may get tagged. In conclusion, whether we've topped, or we get 4242 in next several weeks. Camp 1 is about to get a lesson in "don't buy the dip". Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
11
SPY Example Setup For DaytradersHere is an example dual-chart setup for SPY daytraders. I set this up to help my followers understand how to perceive price action as we attempt to transition through the $405 SPY Support level. If my analysis is correct, we'll see a fairly strong reversion (upside) price trend as long as the $404~405 level holds. This chart includes a number of TradingView PUBLIC SCRIPTS and a dual-chart layout. Both Heiken-Ashi and traditional Candlestick charts are used. Learn to better TIME/ENTER your trades and learn to use price structure/Fibonacci retracements to develop target levels. Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
1
SPX - The grind continues - plus AAPL, TESLA, AI, GEO, Nat GasDidn't get what I wanted to see today, that's trading for you. The possibility that we keep grinding higher for a week or more is certainly viable after today. Above we have the following - daily BB at 4190, Weekly BB at 4180, 100 weekly ma at 4215 and Monthly 18/20 at 4190 and 4210 respectfully. Some stocks like Tesla and AAPL seem to want to go higher after today and other stocks I'm watching also want to get a bounce. So there you have it, I was expecting something more but the market is simply not ready to drop. More grind will likely continue, even if we sell off tomorrow. I will keep watching and waiting for a definitive move down. Good luck!
AMEX:SPY
by the_sunship
4
2/16 SPY Cycle Patterns, Fib, Flagging - Volatility into a RALLYAre you following my SPY Cycle Patterns yet? If not, here is a list of the SPY Cycle Patterns for this week and beyond... 2/6/2023 2/7/2023 Inside-Breakaway 2/8/2023 Harami-Inside 2/9/2023 CRUSH 2/10/2023 GAP Potential 2/11/2023 GAP Potential 2/12/2023 GAP-Reversal 2/13/2023 Rotation 2/14/2023 Top/Resistance21 2/15/2023 Consol-210 2/16/2023 Inside-Breakaway 2/17/2023 Break-Away 2/18/2023 Carryover 2/19/2023 CRUSH 2/20/2023 Flat-Down 2/21/2023 POP 2/22/2023 2/23/2023 BaseRally301 2/24/2023 Harami-Inside 2/25/2023 CRUSH 2/26/2023 Bottom-004 Why are these so important? Because these SPY Cycle patterns help you understand how to trade intraday price swings and what to expect every day - going out weeks and months in advance of today's trading activity. See the "BaseRally301" on 2/23 - that means the SPY should attempt to setup a base/bottom within the 48 hours spanning 2/23. See the 2/25 CRUSH leading to the 2/26 BOTTOM - that means the SPY may be extremely volatile while attempting to setup/confirm the 2/23 bottom Today and tomorrow are calling for an Inside-Breakaway & a Breakaway. My research suggests we may see a broader downside price trend establishing a Wave-D Flagging setup (near $405) in the SPY before we move into the Rally/Bottom phase near 2/23. Watch my video and learn how you can use my research to become a better intraday/swing trader.
AMEX:SPY
by BradMatheny
1
#ES_F Wednesday 2.15.23 Prep Wednesday 2.15.23 : Yesterday after CPI it looked like we could get our continuation lower after we took out 4123-19 Support but we failed to even tag 4103-4099 Key area for entrance back into T2 range where short covering came in and gave us a push back over 4143-37 telling us there is still good Daily Support in that area but the move higher failed to continue or reach 4168-62 because we trapped good amount of supply over 4150 in the morning to hold us down. Can we see that continuation today? Very possible because market has been showing us for last few days that we now have supply but not yet enough to take out T2 areas and make more people sell out. Today holding above Daily Support of 4123-4100 will be a sign of strength and we are inside T2 Range right by the high. Today 4123-19 will be our Key Support only with its break we can see continuation lower, if we fail to get back to 4123-19 and get over 4143-37 our T2 high area that will put next Resistance and Previous Day high as a good target, if we can make a push past that at some point and hold then could see us go for the stops over 4191-85 towards 4220-15. On the downside if 4123-19 breaks we are looking at Previous Day and T2 low as targets and possible break and continue. Unless those break and continue we are staying in this smaller balance with 4143-37 being our middle, 4168-62 Resistance and 4123-19 Support. IF Daily Support breaks watch out to the down side. **** We Do have Data this morning and for now holding under 4143-37 so watch out if data flushes under daily support and holds then we could see a big down day towards 4000 area and we will not be looking for any longs. Levels to Watch: Resistance Key Daily 4215-4191 Key Intraday 4168-62 Current 4143-37 Support Key Daily 4123-4100 Key Intraday 4123-19 // 4103-4099 // 4084-77
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn