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Stay cautious of a PEAK/TOP in the markets today.My SPY Cycle Patterns suggest the markets will establish a PEAK/TOP today - then trend downward. I created this video to help my followers stay aware of the short-term nature of price in a reactionary price trend - like today. If you are chasing this rally, stay very cautious of risks related to my SPY cycle patterns. Overall, I expect the markets to peak, stall, then trend downward over the next 48 hours. Take quick trades with targeted profit targets. This is not a friendly market uptrend in my opinion. I believe the $408 level is a likely downside price target for the SPY by Thursday. Follow my research
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
4
Trends showing lower highs; forming a funnel down?So we are hitting a 2hr uptrend right here at 4114. This is going to be a lower high 2hr uptrend. We have already had a lower high 30m and 1hr uptrend signal also. Having cashed out on my last trade, I might look at anything around the 2hr uptrend if it closes up here and causes that signal, as a short position. However, I am also aware that tomorrow is CPI data. So I may just sit out until that data shows some direciton in the market. There is some discussion that CPI inflation data is going to come in higher with headline Month over Month data, and that even Core Month over Month will be flat. The market may not respond well to that information if that happens. All in all, the trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4143 Uptrend (2/10/2023) Lower High 1Hr - 4100 Uptrend (2/10/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4105 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Lower Low 3Hr - 4092 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4093 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4064 Downtrend (2/10/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Earnings; Lots of earnings this week as it is still earnings season, but nothing major in terms of today. Economic Data; Not much for today; CPI data is tomorrow morning (EST). My sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Neutral/Bearish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish Long Term - Neutral Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
#ES_F Friday 2.10.23 Prep Thursday 2.09.23 Review: Globex made a move over 4143-37 Resistance into next resistance at 4168-62 where we failed to hold and once RTH opened we corrected inventory back under 4143-37 and held under giving us a signal for short trade towards lower support targets 4123-19 // 4103-4099 // 4084-77. The way the day started was thinking that there is a chance to get under 4100 and with help of margin call selling push under 4084-77 but when we were still holding over 4100 before 2pm chances for that were slim but 4084-77 was still a good target to hit and test. We did fill the single prints from the Fed and now need to wait for next direction. Had some nice trades today, short from 43.75 area with exit around 84.50 would have been the trade. Friday 2.10.23 Prep: Previous session tagged 4084-77 Support and closed over it and now we are waiting to see what we will get next, continuation lower? another buy the dip? We are right at the edge of Key Support areas and can still expect to see buyers here, will it continue or hold somewhere around here and reverse later will depend on if its trapped supply coming out or outside selling. Right now we have to give it time and see what kind of structure it builds out to trade from. Going into tonight we watch 4103-4099 as Resistance and 4084-77 as Key Support and Previous Day Low. If we make a move under 4084-77 that opens the doors for a test of 4061-56 and if broken 4046-42 those two areas would need to be taken out for any continuation lower and to see our edge at 4030-25. For upside to play out we want to see buyers either at 4084-77 or strong buyers at 4061-56, our T2 low is at 4123-19 which is our Key Resistance for the day and we should have supply coming out from there which means we will only move there if we find strong buyers or run out of supply under 4103. If selling is not that strong watch for us to balance between 4103-4056 areas, Levels to Watch: Resistance: Key Daily 4214-4191 Key Intraday 4143-37 // 4123-19 Intraday 4103-4099 Support: Key Daily 4103-4084 // 4012-3990 Key Intraday 4084-77 Key For Continuation 4161-56 Next Key 4030-25 **** We are still in our bigger balance area and until we show a full move out we can stay in these back and forth this whole month unless we start breaking out of these daily areas and holding under/over. Time to be patient and strike when the move sets up.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
2
Is the FOMO rally over? Pressures pushing the market lowerSo I'm sitting short from 4150 and still holding to see things go lower. Quick tidbit, the overnight plunge was likely spurred in some part by Russia reducing oil production by 500,000 barrels a day as punishment for sanctions. This is why oil prices spiked overnight also, although they've fallen back to under 1% (they were over 2% for a bit there). In terms of trends, we got a lower low on the 30m/1hr/2hr, and then we've started hitting the resistance of a higher low on the 3hr/4hr/6hr. Thus far it appears that the higher low of the 6hr could cause a momentary rally. I'm looking to see if it sticks and stays higher and then if it does I will cash out and wait and watch to see if we get an uptrend that is a lower high that we can use to swing down past it. The trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4143 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Lower Low 1Hr - 4134 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Lower Low 2Hr - 4105 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Lower Low 3Hr - 4092 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4093 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4064 Downtrend (2/10/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low I see us easily heading lower if we don't get up past the 4084 level of the Daily uptrend, at least to that 3900 level I have been calling for. Economic Data; We have some consumer confidence data today. I don't see it driving the market, but might at least pull us back to 0 if it is decent or confirm the lower movements if it is bad. Earnings; Not much today, like most Fridays. My sentiment for today is; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral/Bearish Medium Term - Bearish/Neutral Long Term - Neutral
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Weekend Update: This Never Ends WellFor those of you reading this who trade the ES futures market I have a question. How’s that choppy price action treating you? It’s hard trading chop. However, to those of us who analyze price action, it’s a big clue. It represents indecision in markets. The age-old battle of fear and greed tugging and pushing against each other. Chop usually reconciles in big swings that take price outside the immediate confines of support and resistance. Price action goes from being indecisive to something else entirely. Is it a notion of giving up? On behalf of some, yes. However, it is the entry of new participants that converts the choppy price action to impulsive price action. Liquidity becomes scarce as these new participants overwhelm a market in a one directional trade. That is what I believe is on the horizon for the SP500 and global markets will follow. Please indulge me as I explain. Since the day price bottomed in October at 3502, we have had nothing but chop. To an Elliottition, chop is called overlap. Since the October bottom we have migrated higher in a very overlapping pattern. Now to mere morals, one can deduce that market participants just got tired of being bearish and this price action since October is a reversion of the mean of trader sentiment so to speak. To an Elliottition, this is a classic counter trend rally. However, the multi-trillion-dollar question is, counter to what? Is the trend lower and now all we’ve done is granted ourselves of short-term reprieve from even lower prices than the October low? Short answer. Yes, I believe so. You see, to me, we are now in a super-cycle wave (IV). To the Elliott Wave uninitiated, trends are counted as 5-wave patterns, whereas, counter trends are counted as 3-wave (overlapping) patterns. The patterns are fractal in nature. This means the 5 and 3 wave patterns contained in the micro timeframes on the 3 minute, 1 hour, etc. charts are self-similar to the larger 5 and 3 wave patterns contained in the daily, weekly and monthly timeframes, etc. The above chart is a monthly chart of the SPX cash market representing the small and large fractals of 5 and 3’s since the inception of the SPX. Contained in the monthly chart is the pattern reactions to much of what humanity has experienced in the last 100 years. All of these events have produced 5 and 3 wave patterns that started on the tick chart and escalated to build larger patterns through the various timeframes into the chart you see now. We just started to experience a very normal consolidation of gains in what many pundits on CNBC and other business outlets will term a bear market, within a secular bull market. With the utmost respect, I disagree. A secular bull market consists of three basic events that feed off each other: (1) valuation expansion of the companies that make up the indices, (2) being driven by earnings growth, and in a favorable environment of (3) falling interest rates. That is the literal definition of a secular bull market. Does that strike you as the type of economic environment where in? NOT ONE OF THOSE EVENTS ARE OCCURRING. I understand if most of you reading this would think to yourself…”so what”. Cycles being what they are, we’ll eventually revert at some point in time. I agree, with only one caveat. Where are we within the overall larger pattern in the history of the SPX index? My analysis shows we’re in the beginning stages of a super-cycle wave (IV) shown in green. The target box for this green wave (IV) is also outlined. So I believe we may eventually come around to the fact that we’re in a secular bear market, and from time to time, economic activity will migrate from short term cyclical bull to bear and back and forth, but make no mistake (and by definition) we’re no longer in a secular bull market. So where we? We’re are now consolidating gains of the entirety of the SPX rally since the 1929 stock market crash. A rally that began 94 years ago is what we’re now just beginning to digest. The next decade or two will be a normal progression of the pattern I have shared with you today. If it were possible to argue with Charles Dickens today, I would respectfully correct him and offer my version…”It was the best of times… and it appears it’s about to be the worst of times” . LOL But this will not occur in a straight line. If I am correct, that print we got of 4808.25 in the ES/SPX futures in January of 2022 will not be revisited for a very long time. However, that’s not to say there will not be major opportunities for traders on the long and short side. Now 90% of you reading this are not in agreement with my analysis, nor my economic thesis. Here’s one way to know if I might be correct. There’s an economist named Nouriel Roubini. He is affectionately known as “Dr. Doom” to those in the financial world. I have never read any of his works, but he is popular for his apocalyptic views on the global economy and markets. Suffice to say, Mr. Roubini has been dead wrong for the vast majority of his career. He gained some popularity during the 2008-2009 financial crisis…but most market pundits consider him a fairly un-credible, but entertaining guest. Here's how you get a clue I may be right in what I’m sharing with you today. If he starts appearing on CNBC, FOX business, Bloomberg on a regular basis….within the next couple years or so, let’s just say there may be something to this Elliott Wave thing. LOL This pattern…where we are in the super-cycle of the SPX market….”IT NEVER ENDS WELL”. Best to all, Chris
SP:SPX
by maikisch
9
#ES_F Thursday 2.09.23 Prep Previous Day: Globex built out structure over 4168-62 but did not have enough buyers to get us to our Key Resistance area for the day and once the structure broke under 68-62 we got our move lower in RTH down to 4143-37 which broke easily and opened the door for lower targets and a bigger sell off but instead it took us half a day to pull back and take another attempt without any success at breaking into 4123-19 Key Support area for the day and we ended our day in b profile under 4143-37 becoming our potential resistance. Today: Globex opened and pushed into 4143-37 taking it out later in the night and now we are back in the scene of the crime from Yesterday. We are currently inside Previous Day Range inside T2 Range and hanging out under Key Daily Resistance area, is today the day we make another attempt higher and try to push over 4191-85 up to 4220-14 and maybe look above? or are we running out of buyers and trapping longs up here and will drop the bid under 4143-37 again? If the market is really strong we wont see it come back under 4143-37 and eventually take out 4168-62 and make an attempt at 4191-85 which would be our Key Intraday Resistance for today and if that gets taken there is always a chance to see 4120-14 and maybe the level above if it really makes a push but don't get too crazy up there as its an area of Supply and bid can either be dropped from there or can see more slower sideways action. If we fail to get over 4168-62 and fail to find support at 4143-37 then we could possibly see a test of Previous Day low, T2 low and that 4084-77 area but those area all big areas to hit and will only happen if we see break under and hold continue/ Other wise we could spend the whole day in tighter range again and possibly do break out over 4191-85 later in the day after we consolidate. Levels to Watch: Resistance: Key Daily 4220-4191 Key Intraday 4191-85 Current 4168-62 Support: Key Daily 4103-4077 Key Intraday 4143-37 If breaks watch 4123-19 for any continuation
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES_F Wednesday 2.08.23 Prep Overview for 2.07.23: Globex held between Key Intraday Resistance and 4123-19 Support, once structure broke it gave us pre market flush towards 4100 but failed to tag it and we again ran out of inventory. During Powell discussion volume came in took us over 4143-37 Resistance to our second Key Intraday Resistance from where we can see bigger seller stepped in and we got the move to our target at 4103-4099 where we selling stopped and gave us a move back over the resistance filled the short stops and closed the day weak trapping end of day chasers above 4175-80 after failure a tag and fail at next Key Resistance 4191-85 doesn't we cant still move above it but we have failed around it 3 times now and if we don't get much continuation then supply will build up and shorts will start dropping the bid. Prep for 2.08.23: Previous session we have stayed within our Daily Balance tagging both side of it in the same day and closing under our Daily Resisting after failing there again. Are we ready to attempt a break out from this daily balance or will we stay in range and maybe tighten up some more? Currently we are in 4214-4191 // 4123-4100 range, inside Previous Day Range and Over T2 Range now we will be watching to see if this 4168-62 act as Support or not and if we will be able to make a push towards 4191-85 which will be our Key Resistance going into tonight as that is an area we need to build under and then stay over to see upside, for now its showing more weakness and sideways action while trapping more longs on every push higher. If 4168-62 fails our Key Intraday Support will be 4143-37 which is also T2 High entry and should have buyers under there, If we do fail at 43-37 watch if we can get going under for our lower Targets towards 4123 4103 4084 ONLY if we can break 4143-37 for now we have accepted over it. Levels to Watch: Resistance: Key Daily 4214-4191 Key Intraday 4191-85 Support: Key Daily 4103-4084 Key Intraday 4143-37 Current Temp Support 4168-62 Possible Resistance? **** Watch of Key areas to show the way
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
SPX - decisions, decisionsPowell speaking today will be a wild card for the markets - a sort of mini fomc. I still expect a sell off to the daily 18ma at 4060 this week, but if we are going to have a final rally it should be from there (green path). If they sell hard under the 18 ma, it may act as resistance on any bounce (red path). One more up would give us regular bearish divergence and probably a double top - or close to it. I'm open to both paths right now. Good luck!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by the_sunship
#ES_F Tuesday 2.07.23 Prep Review for Monday 2.06.23: Sunday Globex opened up and held under our Key Support of 4143-37 giving us a break into our Daily Support area under 4123-19 but found short covering front running 4103-4099 area, we took 3 attempts at it and all failed to reach which was telling us no lower continuation yet. We stayed in a tighter range as we thought we might in this area since now we have Supply over 4143-37 and buyers are still under our 4123 - 4100 -4084 areas. After big moves we need to do some cleaning, this was a good range to do it at. Question is can we stay in this range and attempt another move higher or they will slowly be marking this down and trapping buyers on their way. Prep for Tuesday 2.07.23: Last night Globex Opened over our 4123-19 Support and since then been trading between that and Resistance. We have now accepted in this range under 4143-37 and unless we get back over it and hold there is a chance to visit lower areas. We are Under T2 range Today which signals weakness but for now inside Previous day range, we are looking to see if we will be able to hold within this range and just trade that or will we make a move out. We have our Key Resistance of continuation higher at 4143-37 as first step and 4168-62 as confirm for continuation but we now have Supply over that area so we will need to create some buying as shorts are slowing down unless we trap more here this week for another push. It could be a tricky day holding the range with a possible break lower later in the day once shorts see supply and longs are trapped so watch out for it being slow most of the day until later unless we get big volume at open and take our resistance. Getting under 4123-19 will be the first step which should have enough supply once it does to test 4103-4099 area where we see if we break it or not. Potential Targets today are 4103-4099 and 4084-77 those two will need to break to get anymore downside. Levels to Watch: Resistance: Key Daily 4214-4191 Key Intraday 4168-62 // 4143-37 Support: Key Daily 4100-4077 Key Intraday 4084-77 Current 4123-19 // 4103-4099 *** This Slow action and quick Reversals cleans out a lot of traders, its a clean up after a part from few weeks of run up and we are at an area where size will need to show us when we are ready to move. Expect Smaller trades unless we are breaking through levels and showing continuation.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES_F Monday 2.05.23 Prep Friday 2.03.23 Overview: Coming into the day we had our Globex inventory around 4168-62 Support which broke overnight, 8:30 am data gave us a flush taking out lower stops and finding support at our Key Intraday Support 4143-37, RTH Open didn't waste much time and corrected the inventory back inside the value and up to Intraday Resistance at 4191-85 this is an area we marked off to watch night before and if patient it gave a very good short trade all the way back to Intraday support, as much as it looked that we could break and keep going we also thought this day we could spend in Balance within this 4215-4140 range so the none break wasn't as surprising just frustrating. Even with the strong selling and supply building up over us we didn't break 4143-37 on that move lower which tells us that maybe we aren't done up here just yet. Monday 2.06.23 Prep: Where are we? Currently in this bigger balance area of 4215-4100, we have supply over 4215 over 4190 and some over 4170. Friday Closed with inventory short right at Key Intraday Support, under T2 RTH range. As much as it looks like we are reversing we have to keep in mind if our business here is not done yet then we may stay around these areas some more building out structure for the next move. It is very possible to open Globex under Support and keep going or consolidate over it, break and keep going but we have to watch for this to happen first. For now looks like we have buyers under 4140 and 4120-4100, we are starting to see stronger selling from above 4190 but its not enough where they want to break it yet it seems so keep in mind until we see full breaks of Daily Support or Daily Resistance we can stay in this balance and possibly trade level to level especially if we start tightening up the range some. We could see more downside if we break 4143-37 but watch for buyers at lower support areas if we start holding and can't get under 4123-19 and especially tag or break 4103. For upside if we hold this 4143-37 can see a move back towards T2 low and maybe that 4168-62 Resistance but that would need to get taken out and get over 4191-85 to see more upside. Levels to Watch: Resistance: Key Daily 4215-4190 Key Intraday 4191-85 Current 4168-62 / T2 Low area Support: Key Daily 4103-4084 Key Intraday 4123-19 // 4103-99 Current 4143-37 / Previous Day Low **** Not a lot of market moving data this week except Fed doing discussions and Friday data release which makes it more possible to stay in some range and build structure. We keep that in mind until we see otherwise.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
My ES Prep for week commencing 6th Feb 2023Market has been rallying despite potential upcoming recession. My suspicion that this is a large bull trap and there will be a large drop possibly even this week. Apple, Google and other large tech firms earnings were not great but their stocks mysteriously rallied. See their individual charts for possible gap up bull traps. Everything is poised for the rug to be pulled out for the current high greed in the market. I have 3 possible gameplans depending on which direction they decide to to go first. I'm slightly biased towards the scenario where A and B get hit before a final rally before the long way down. However be ready for further upside pressure as the technicals would suggest a very bullish market (Which I don't believe), although it does appear to be overbought. a. IF we break and hold below C, look for high probability downside targets A and B. THEN EITHER rally to C, D, and E (More likely) OR further downside targets of G,H,I b. IF we break and hold above D, look for targets E, F THEN EITHER further upside targets OR once back below D play back down to G and C c. Play rotation between C and D
CME_MINI:ES1!
by fd3typer2
1
#ES_F Friday 2.03.23 Prep Review: Today we saw that our suspicions about possibly finding a place to tighten up a bit to get ready for next move might have been correct, still have to see what we do in Globex but so far the information we have is we have accepted in this 4220 - 4137 intraday range, we have supply over 4220 - 15, we have built a support last night Globex under 4061 - 62 and still have short holding us up under 4143 - 37. As long as we don't break down and fall apart or break out tonight this might be our range until we are ready for next move out or to drop the bid for lower distribution. Prep: As Mentioned above we are currently in 4020 - 4137 Intraday Range with 4191 - 62 being our Value. Until we set up for a move outside of this range we can probably expect to spend some time in or around it and should be able to trade level to level once it sets up for a move away from value or back to value. Our T2 Range is under us which should give us support but we might dip inside it, if we do start taking out taking out Key Support or Resistance areas that is where we need to watch for reversal or continuation for a bigger move out of range or back to the other side, as mentioned it might take time now until we are ready for the move and right now is the time of patience to let things properly set up and show the way... long to set up, moves quick and reverses quick which means need to be patient and ready. I think once we are ready we have that nice space blow us to drop our bid to, we have 4100 - 4080 as potential lower support when we do but until then we might take our time. Levels to Watch: Resistance : Key Daily 4214 - 4191 // Key Intraday 4220 - 4215 // Intraday 4191-85 Support : Key Daily 4123 - 4084 // Key Intraday 4143 - 37 // Intraday 4168-62
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Evening Update: My Last Weekday PostToday was a fairly predictable day if you traded my morning update chart. On the morning update post I posted my activity for a scalp. I'm short -3 ES at 4207 for a scalp anticipating price getting down to 4150-4160 area. We can get down into the 4120 area without invalidating anything but if this is going to continue to extend we should not get down that low. Now that we are not overlapping in 3-way moves it appears price is hitting standard fib areas for this c wave advance. Therefore I have no reason to believe we will not decline into the 4150-4160 area and make another high ( at the very least ) Remember we do not get our first sign we have topped until we breach 4048.50 and confirmation comes ONLY with a breach of 3901.75. Best to all, Important: Due to the update in my profile section I will no longer be posting my Morning, Evening, Special and Trade Alert posts. Please reference that for more information. I will be posting a Weekend Update.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
4
Tesla TSLA - The Bottom Is In, But It's Still BearishTesla has collapsed for five straight months, much to the delight of everyone who hates Elon Musk. To tell you the truth, I think Musk is something of a combination between a psyop, a Fabian, and a guy with some conservative values who wants to protect the happy life he has, but am not particularly a fan of his and don't trust him. Regardless, the Mastodon socialists, the Reddit Marxists, and much of the supposed "liberals" just hate the guy because he purged the pro-child grooming pro-human trafficking pro-censorship communist old guard when he bought Twitter. The way life under Communist Party rule works is this: 1. If the Party says you're good, you're good 2. If the Party says you're bad, you're bad 3. The Party is Great, Glorious, and Correct, and is always right Thus, it really is self evident that it is time for mankind to sober up and eliminate the Chinese Communist Party's things from the areas outside of Mainland China. The Chinese people will soon deal with the CCP inside the Mainland, and Xi and the Party will be gone overnight. The reason I bring the above up is not to get political or soapbox, but to point out to readers that when you get yourself caught up in these campaigns, you are going to bottom short and lose money because your vision is clouded and you're listening to a political campaign and not a professional. I've seen so many people calling for $80 TSLA or for Tesla to go the way of Enron and collapse to zero in the next few months that it's actually both alarming and amusing at the same time. The more your vision is clouded by prejudice as a trader the more likely you are to be one of those guys on r/WallStreetBets posting his 6 figure account that went busto buying $200k worth of short term $25 call options on Peloton, lol. Black swan risks: Because of the situation in Mainland China under the Chinese Communist Party as it faces the disaster of the Wuhan Pneumonia epidemic, Tesla and its Shanghai Gigafactory faces significant risk that could cause any successful long trade to endure a market-open gap down exceeding 20%. For the reality is that the CCP has always been lying and covering up the pandemic situation. All its data and all its narrative are bogus. Really, the epicenter of COVID and a country of 1.5 billion people is posting positive case counts and death counts 95-99% lower than literally every single other country on the entire planet?! The Party did the same thing during the 2003 SARS epidemic and yet nobody seems to have learned to not trust what that murderous regime says or the numbers it reports. But you can't do anything for a fool who believes in the Marxist-Leninist atheism and evolution hoax and actually wants the genocidal CCP Red Dynasty in the first place. The problem for Tesla is the Shanghai Gigafactory seated in Babylon is "our main export hub, supplying vehicles to most markets outside of North America," according to the Q3 earnings Shareholders Deck . The Babylon Gigafactory has the capacity for three times as many units as Berlin and Texas, and even exceeds California's production capacity. This is significant for longs because when the Communist Party falls, 6:00 PM Beijing time is 7:00 AM New York Time, and you won't like getting caught in the 1,000 point SPX gap down that the regime's collapse causes and what Wall Street does during that session as it runs for its life when everyone is caught off guard like they were when the USSR fell. In my opinion, $108 in the last week of December was Tesla's bottom, evidenced by bounce back to $124 that happened Thursday and the strong weekly close to end the year. However, for long-term Tesla bulls, this is a very bearish indicator, as evidenced on the monthly chart: For long term bulls, you really do not want a stock to break a major 2-year-old bullish order block, which is exactly what Tesla did. It should maintain it and sharply reverse if there's to truly be another leg up. There's a direct precedent for this principle on the Nasdaq NQ CME Futures, which did exactly this in March, had an impotent bounce, and has since not been bullish at all. Tech has just been a slaughter house with the exception a few days like November CPI. Tesla gives you some greater clarity on the weekly candles: What's strange about Tesla's price action is: The triple top at $315 before it started dumping. This becomes a big target on a reversal. The $414.50 ATH. Yes, this was pre-splits, but remember Elon is the guy who paid $5 4.20 a share for Twitter. Breakaway gap/liquidity void at $263.55. These also become targets once the algo and its MM have achieved their downside objectives. In my opinion, Tesla on the hourly looks like a pretty solid reversal with the gap between $113 and $118 potentially being a breakaway gap. Another big factor to consider is that the TSLL 1.5x leveraged bull ETF has fallen from $27~ to $6 during this bear run. A very likely and rational target for this to retrace to when it does go in the other direction is $10. This is a lot of upside and makes for a heck of a trade. TSLL also traded at double its average volume literally three times last week, with 15 million shares being traded on Dec. 29. Someone had to be the buyer on those trades and they didn't buy so it can go to $4 so easily. So here's some potential scenarios: 1. Tesla is extremely bearish but will retrace anyways. If this is the case then $160 is where it should go and it should get held back at the last green daily candle that peaked at $160.93. Either way, this is a pretty good long from the $120s. 2. Tesla has achieved its downside objective and MMs will target short seller funds' buy stops This particular outcome I regard with a high degree of probability. If so, $330 is exactly where it will go before it will die. This is an amazing long. 3. Nasdaq is about to bounce to 15,000 and Tesla follows a huge bear market rally to perform a bump and run reversal to $420.20 I have reservations about the realism of this outcome, but I definitely believe it's a significant possibility between now and April if a genuine 2008-style market crash is en route for humanity in 2023. Things that won't happen: Tesla will not continue on to $500 with a new leg up. Frankly speaking, we're standing at the end of the good times. It's up to you what you believe. One thing I know is that people don't believe in anything until they see it, and then they FOMO or get scared and give themselves regrets. But what I want to say to all of you is: if you want a future you have to "practice social distancing" and "hand sanitizing" with the Chinese Communist Party and all of that Marxist atheism and evolution junk. You need to return to tradition and come to understand that it's no less than the Divine side of the Cosmos our Earth is seated and rotating in that brings a future. The Chinese Communist Party is a demon that was arranged to destroy the human race. Whoever can't see this are the greatest morons.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by LordWrymouth
13