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Did stocks just bottom? Are they going higher or lower?It looks like stocks bottomed today, but what is my evidence, and why would I say that? 1. This correction has been very orderly, and VIX has been going down along with stocks, which means something is happening. 2. Stocks have held exceptionally well despite rising interest rates and the DXY. 3. We have continuous liquidity injections by most central banks, and that doesn't just mean the BoJ and PBoC. Since the Sep-Nov issues that bond markets faced globally, even the Fed and Treasury have increased market liquidity. 4. Current debts can't be repaid. That's why bonds are going down (yields up). There is no way governments can't pay these dividends through taxation and can only repay them with printed money. Now you can hold both a depreciating asset that pays dividends and riskier assets. Chasing a fool's yield isn't ideal, but it's a strategy. Higher yields = more money supply will be created. High inflation isn't necessarily bad for stock markets, contrary to what the majority wrongly believes. 5. During this correction, sentiment has become increasingly bearish, with most investors being bearish. At the CryptoBullSociety, in private channels, as well as on my Twitter account, I have been talking about the market piercing the 200 DMA and bottoming. Yesterday I shared bullish ideas on Tradingview for metals and Chinese stocks, which also permeates to US stocks after such a substantial rise since Oct 2022; the market needed to test bulls and, as usual, pull into the golden cross before going higher. On their way up, stocks swept some highs and filled some gaps, but some gaps were left unfilled higher, along with some newly formed double tops. Even if markets are about to go lower, I believe SPX will first test 4350-4400 and then go lower. By lower, I mean more of a sideways market than a continuation of the bear market or an outright crash. So far, we have seen the major US indices pull into their crosses, test support, sweep lows, and today form a reversal candle. Below are many US-related charts showing all the potential targets (double tops, double bottoms, etc.). The reason why I call them targets is that the market tends to break these structures. As we've been trending higher, it's more likely we will first take out the double tops and then the double bottoms. Currently, nothing indicates a crash, while there are indications of a bottom being in. To be clear, I am not saying we are ready to fly to the moon tomorrow, although we could. Given the system's structure, with most governments being broke, more money will be created. Below you can see some charts of other stock markets, like the GER40 (DAX), UK100 (FTSE), and CN50 (CHINA). I also added the S&P500 value index, IVE. UK100 is at new ATHs, GER40 near highs seem to be in tight consolidation before expansion, CN50 appears to be back in a bullish trend after capitulation (something I talked about in yesterday's idea, which you can find below), and IVE almost made new ATHs a few weeks ago. My overall point is that sentiment is bearish, while I believe liquidity will keep increasing, causing a short squeeze that could last at least until SPX gets to 4350. As I've mentioned in my previous ideas, it's unlikely that we would get a 2000 or 2008 crash so quickly after the Fed started tightening, and if we get one, it will probably be in Q4 2023 or Q1 2024. The path I've drawn in the chart is what I see as the most likely one, followed by another significant correction. Of course, I could be wrong, so my stop loss is at 3840
FX:SPX500Long
by BitcoinMacro
1
#ES_F 3.02.23 Day Trading Prep 3.01.23 Review : Wednesday RTH Opened under 3976-71 which signaled possible move to our lower targets, we did do a full break of our 3957-44 Support area and tagged our target but did not see the full move down towards 3931-27. This is area of cost basis for size traders so we expect to see balancing action and buying around our Support areas, especially on first tests and so far selling is mechanical so we aren't breaking multiple areas at once. 3.02.23 Prep : Globex broke 3957-53 and sold off down to our 3932-31 target where we found Support. Currently we are in this 3955-25 balance under the supply from previous days, inventory is short from yesterdays close, we are under T2 range and trying to hold inside Previous Days Range. We are getting into next Daily Support area here so very possible to see stronger buyers and at the same time we have plenty of supply above still coming out it looks like, will we get continuation through our next Daily Support area today? or will we hold this current balance and maybe try to make a push back over 3957-53? So far looks like we are looking good for possible continuation but as we saw for past weeks it hasn't been easy and things have been taking a long time to set up and show direction unless we switch it up today. This 3957-44 area will be our Key Resistance today, holding under means continued weakness and can bring on a test of 3932-27, If we managed to break that we have juicy stops lined up below ready to be filled down to 3892 as that is the next Daily cost basis low. If we do accept back in Previous days range and can hold over 3944-40 that can give us a push back over this resistance area and we could look for higher targets but until then we should be expecting some balance at the lows or continuation. Levels to Watch Resistance : Key Daily 3957-44 Key Intraday 3957-53 // 3944-40 Key For Continuation Higher 3976-71 Support : Key Daily 3915-3890 Key Intraday 3937-27 Key For Continuation Lower 3915-10 *** We are Under a lot of supply and only buyers are shorts who are covering, if shorts see more supply they will drop the bid. IF we do happen to get down to 3900 area today with time left, IF 3890 breaks not much support there until 3870 and under.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Weekly Update: Market Analysis for the Intermediate TermI have long opined on how I believe the SPX/ES gets to my initial downside target of 3200 to high 2800 area. This week I will dispense with the long-term warnings, and provide some intermediate context. This market is transitioning from “Buy the Dips” which has worked as a strategy for the better part of 2 decades to “Sell the Rips” . That is not to say our “Rips” will not have meat on the bone so to speak. Let’s start with where we are now. We are currently in the middle of carving out a complex w-x-y pattern for our b-wave low in the area of 3772-3653. A breach of 3788 is a target I have been discussing in our trading room for a while now. Upon getting into my target box, I plan on designating the summer of 2023, as "The Summer of LOVE"...lol. This is where traders LOVE the long side once again. This could constitute a RIP that has a lot of MEAT on the bone. We're talking about a potential move up of 700-900 points. I am speculating when I say, the sentiment would be during this rally that the FED has pivoted, inflation has moderated, "maybe scientists will determine that "Dogs and cats can live together in harmony " (Joke)...but this rally will only give way to a 3rd quarter to end of 2023 being dismal. Why, you ask? Because this is the last hurrah for "Buy the Dips" trading mentality. This gives way to despair, as we shed 30%-35% in short order. I mean this sincerely when I say..."Stay Safe". Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
1
ES_F 3.01.23 Day Trading Prep 2.28.23 Review : Tuesday Globex made a push back inside Previous Daily Support area of 4012-3990 before RTH where we found Supply and got our move towards 3976-71 where we found buyers first time around but managed to break it towards end of day. 3.01.23 Prep : Was end of day flush yesterday a move to take in more supply at lower prices and we can hold in balance today with possible move back inside Previous Daily Support and over? or will we see some continuation to Yesterday? Price has been holding under Daily Support which is signaling weakness but we can see we still have buying every push lower. Globex did give us open continue to yesterdays shorts, tagging our lower Support where we again found buyers to get us back over 3976-71. Today holding above 3976-71 which be somewhat of stability for us and if we can see a move over 3994-90 and accept back in Daily Support we could see a move back towards Previous Day high and possibly over towards our bigger supply area above. IF We fail to get back over 3994-90 and make a move under 3975-71 We are watching to see if we can make a move under Previous Day low towards lower Support and if we can hold under 76-71 a possible move towards the other side of that range towards 3944-40 // 3937-27 where we would watch for next reaction. Levels to Watch : Resistance - Key Daily 4012-3990 Key Intraday 4012-08 // 3994-90 Key For Continuation Higher 4030-27 Support - Key Daily 3930-3890 Key Intraday 3976-71 Key For Continuation Lower 3957-53 // 3944-40
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES_F 2.28.23 Day Trading Prep 2.27.23 Review : Globex pushed us back inside Previous Daily Support at 4012-3990 and we pretty much spent the day inside it with a look above and come back in, look below and end of day break but we still closed inside it. 2.28.23 Prep : Is 4012-3990 our Daily Resistance now or will we be able to stay inside it and push back out? We have Supply over 4030-25 and over 4012-08 now and still showing buyers under our Daily Support and the question today is are we going to stay in this Daily Support balance another day or are we going to make a move out of balance. Currently we are in our 4025-3976 range but it seems like value has shifted lower with Fridays move and its very possible to test Fridays low and maybe area under it at some point but for now we are Above T2 range and inside Previous Days Range, for a move lower we will want to see a move under 3994-90 and a break of 76-71 to get Inside T2 range and Under Previous Day low to give us more pressure for continuation towards lower Support targets. If we do hold 3994-90 today we can see a move towards 4012-08 and 4030-25 those are the Key Resistance areas to watch if we make a move there for continuation or reversal. We do have some data at 10am which may give us that move out of balance we are looking for and if not we trade within our current balance. Levels to Watch Resistance : Key Daily 4030-4012 Key Intraday 4030-25 // 4012-08 Support : Next Daily 3930-3890 Key Daily 3990-3976 Key Intraday 3994-90 // 3976-71
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES_F 2.27.23 Day Trading Prep Friday 2.24.23 Review: Globex took out Daily Support and our 3976-71 Key Level for continuation before RTH and that gave us a flush down to our next potential support area, the way we opened it seemed like we could see continuation under that next Support but it was our first test and we didn't have enough to break it even though we were under T2 and Previous Days Lows which is telling us its still very mechanical selling down to our Support areas where we still have buyers without breaking too much structure at the same time. Monday 2.27.23 Prep: Friday closed right at our 3976-71 area with position below, Globex ran the stops over 3976, held above and we pushed up over Previous Day high into previous Daily Support for distribution. Question today is can this Globex move hold us inside 4025-3976 range and will we have more buying to push us over this Previous Daily Support? Or did we use Globex to make a run to Previous Support, sell what we bought Friday at higher price grab more supply and come back in under 3976-71 to give us a test of our next Daily Support area? We are currently inside T2 range, over Previous Day high with Globex inventory long over the close which tells us there is good chance to see some correction to the inventory and this is where we will see if we can hold and continue higher or accept back in Previous Days Range and maybe go for its low? Key Resistance area today is this Previous Daily Support at 4012-3990 wit all of the Supply above it, if we fail to accept over it or hold within the opens the door for a move lower back to 3976-71 to see if we actually have any Support there from Friday or not. If we do accept and hold over 3976-80 area without failing back under we can stay in this range and see a push towards the upper part of Daily Support and maybe a look above it, we have to remember current move was done in Globex and depending on RTH orders it can come apart pretty quick but we are in a weird market right now so we must watch Key areas for clues for continuation. Levels to Watch: Resistance - Key Daily 4012 3990 Key Intraday 4012-08 // 3994-90 Key For Continuation Higher 4025-30 Support - Key Daily 3927 - 3890 Key Intraday 3976-71 // 3957-53 Key For Continuation Lower 3944-40 **** We have some Data at 830, this market hasn't been easy to trade, must be patient and exit at targets unless shows continuation.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
ES - A Pathway to Follow TBond YieldsES WEEKLY Linear Chart - This is a Sell/Short idea... Will be looking for an ideal setup at the Wave 2 if swing trading. With this set-up you can view the early Feb top as a stop. This is a refinement of a previously published idea on my outlook for ES based mainly on my anticipated yield direction of the US10Y. See my idea on TBonds following the link below... I am anticipating a little more upside to yields...then a ST top. The following move up will carry us over 5%. If this occurs there will be an inverse move in the ES. As mapped out here. My assertion is the true top on ES was Nov 22, 2021. NQ top was that date as well which further supports this concept. There are many ways to label the wave count off the top. However, I think the 3 wave formation in the period between Nov 22 and Jan 3, '22 cannot be omitted from the wave count. It was significant in time and price. That being said, in my thesis the corrective waves from that point can be counted as a series of 3 wave correctives. A weekly chart makes that become more obvious. Again...you cannot omit the November top from the corrective count. The number of overlaps and broken channels in the declining waves further supports this concept. I'm putting forth my wave count here based on those considerations... In EW you can't tell where you are going until you know where you've been and how that path unfolded.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by oliverrathbun
1
The Dow - Despite All Your Rage, You Still Just a Bear in a CageThe prevailing narrative in these markets is still that you're in a bear market. Some stocks are in a bear market, specifically the tech junk that retail likes to lose money on, but the indexes are not in a bear market and have not been in a bear market. But it's not that the fundamentals behind the world economy are not bearish. Trouble is brewing, and the trouble is big. Yet, something should trigger your nose when fundamental danger like we have at present has emerged and yet the markets a) don't dump and b) stay high for a long time. Contrary to how things usually are, the Dow is by far the most bullish of the three indexes. I'm calling for a new all time high on the Dow on the next bull impulse. And while you may, perhaps justifiably, guffaw at these moonboy-sounding words, just take a look for yourself: Monthly From a monthly view, based on the February high, the Dow is less than 7 percent away from its bull market highs and a run to 1/2 standard deviation higher is just 12 percent away. And February wasn't the highest month Dow posted since it bounced 23% in a straight line, crushing every other index by a mile during our "bear market." December was higher. Geopolitical Risks As I warn in every post, the situation in China is really a lot more dire than you're being told. The Chinese Communist Party would have the world believe that Wuhan Pneumonia all but totally went away after Xi Jinping finally dropped his "Zero COVID" LARP and stopped welding people in their apartment buildings and making people take daily nucleic acid swabs in the park if they want to have access to public transit go to work the next day under the Party's social credit system. But nothing could be further from the truth. Just go use a data aggregator like Our World in Data and compare cumulative case counts and death counts reported by China and any other major country in the world and ask yourself how the epicenter of the pandemic, the place where Patient Zero emerged, and the world's (formerly) largest country, could have an exponent less worth of COVID problems than even the countries who emulated the Communist Party's Zero COVID social credit system like Australia and New Zealand. My point with the above is to say that the CCP is weak and is about to fall. But at the same time there is a faction of globalists in this world who want to install a one world government. Think about it carefully, everyone: Can you have a "one world government" without the world's largest and most ancient country - China? Thus, if the one world government was to be installed while the CCP was still around, would it work? It would only work if they made the CCP the center of the New World Order. But why would they do that? Don't the globalists want to be the center of the NWO, the Kings of the World, the "New Gods"? Thus, it's a quandary. And so as the CCP falls, it's very likely that the globalist factions will move to install the NWO and every single thing in our life will change. What I want to point out to you all is this: What is the actual problem with Communism? Is it a bunch of glasses wearing atheists with beards running around doing the Marxist cuckold fist and carrying the Flag of Blood while screaming "Viva la Revolution"? The fundamental nature of communism and the ultimate goal of communism is to create a two class system. One class will be the Party, specifically its elites, who rule. They eat the beef and drive the V8 S550s and live in the mansions and have air conditioning and go to the lake and the mountains. The second class will be everyone else, which includes you, who will live in the pod, eat the bugs, live in the open air prison "15-minute cities," take the bus, ride the bike, rent the Nissan Leaf, and experience "beauty" and "nature" only on Zuckerberg's Metaverse. It's as simple as that. You decide what kind of future you want. If you want to live like a human being, then show you're still "humane" and get rid of the Party and all its Marxist Leninist garbage, cultivate virtue, and take care of your family and your country. The Call The weekly bars show you a lot: Namely, we've had three weeks of pinbars. Volatility has contracted and this pattern pretty much always predicates a big move. So, what direction is the big move coming? If the ATH is only 7% away, then it seems to me that's a pretty likely target. But after three weeks of ranging in a 1,000 point range and this being the 15th week of sideways since the huge move, how many institutions and funds have gone long with stops below the most recent pivot? A lot. If you were the market maker, wouldn't it make sense to liquidate them before running 12% higher and setting a new all time high? It would. It certainly would. And the price action is set up just like this. The December low is the most recent weekly pivot and is a meager 1,200 points (4%~) under where we are, during a short week, that ends the month of February. Moreover, there's a big liquidity gap between 30,000 and 32,000 that has never been touched since the post-October monster bounce. The bearish impulse is over, but you're about to get a bear trap. The people who keep listening to Discord signal groups and charlatan furus, the mainstream media, Zerohedge, FinTwitt, all think it's time for us to trade to zero because FEDERAL RESERVE RATE HIKES and, like... more or less just because the Federal Reserve isn't done hiking the rates yet. So, look to get long in the 30,000 range on the Dow, with a target over the ATH. 20% on the DIA ETF, which does not have Zero Day to Expiry options and whose options have lower implied volatility than SPY and QQQ, will serve you very well over the next two or three months. Most importantly, don't take my word for anything. Not the call, not China, not anything. What you need to do is just think about it. Calm down. Be cold. Be sober. And really, really think about what's going on in this world, and decide for yourself what to do. Until next time, stay safe. Earth and humans were not created to live as slaves to the Red Cult. They were created by the Divine, and it's as simple as that.
CBOT_MINI:MYM1!Long
by LordWrymouth
1
SPX clearly is going nowhere for nowTime for me to give my view on SPX for probably the next month. The EWT in this chart should only be used as a guide. It's very subjective and price action and geometry are what I give more weight, so lets discuss that for now. I'll also focus a bit on the indicators below the chart as well. First, notice the sell signal in January of 2022 which was the top of SPX. You had a sell signal on both the wave master and the momentum indicator that was stating that we were are the top of the price action. Next, notice the two times we got buy signals with confluence in both indicators. June 17, 2022 and October 13, 2022. These are both on the daily timeframes. Both times resulted in significant rallies. Finally, notice the last sell signal that we got. February 8, 2023. That is the first sell signal we've received in over a year (if you are solely looking for confluence across both indicators - which you should be). We've had a decent decline so far. Ok, now lets move to trendlines. First, notice the downtrend line (DTL) from the ATH down to the recent price pivot yesterday. This trendline is very important and I do not expect we will break it. Remember, this is an index made up of 500 stocks, so there's 500 different factors that will move this train. Likely, there will be money rotating in these underlying stocks which will keep price action above this DTL. Second, notice the uptrend line (UTL) from the low in October which is marked in yellow. We broke it. I suspect we will stay below this for quite a while. If we get back above it in the next few trading days, that would be the most bullish thing I've seen in a long time. Third, the price action between both trendlines is forming somewhat of a chuvashov fork. We'll likely just stay within the bounds of both trendlines until probably at least april before starting another trending move. Ok. Now how about sentiment. I'm starting to see more doomsday charts out there. It's not to the craze I'd like to see in order to flip bullish so this chop is probably going to build some kind of formation to feed the bears. I think we need more time to develop and this fork is going to really help define the future, at least short term, a bit. There's also a LOT of bulls out there that are talking about this DTL. We just successfully retested it. Is this a valid correction from my green wave A to complete wave B (green)? I don't think so. I think more time is needed. Why? TIME TIME TIME TIME TIME Look at the time it took to get from the bottom in October to the top in January. October. January. 4 months. Are you teling me the whole dang thing finished correcting in 3 weeks? Doubtful. We need more time. At least 8 weeks if we go half of the time. We're at the point now that a lot of people are getting 45DTE options OTM for upside plays and people late to the party shorting as well. Let's decay those options and squeeze them out. Give the market some time and by all means, make everything a short term play for now. We're likely in for a boring month but if the market decides to really get volatile, I'll be ready for that, too.
SP:SPX
by bitdoctor
2
#ES_F Friday 2.24.23 Day Trading Prep 2.23.23 Review : Thursday Globex spent time building structure over our Key Daily Support, RTH Open made an attempt at our 4030-25 Key Intraday Resistance area for the day and failed giving us a very nice trade towards our Daily Support. After we broke 4012-08 we broke structure that was built over it and we got more selling hitting out 3994-89 target and tagging 3976-71 Level but no break and that was our Key Level for a continuation yesterday and instead we got a push back inside Daily Support and a move all the way back to 4025 Resistance WHAT a crazy market we are in but this is what we trade using STRUCTURE to show us the way. 2.24.23 Prep : Globex again opened over Daily Support and built structure over it, as we can see now we made a stop run towards 4025 but we still had plenty of supply over that area. Once we ran out of buyers and broke 4012-08 we again started leaking lower and this time we have less buyers under us because we cleared them out yesterday, we are back at our Key Support areas with data coming at 830. We have Supply above us, we are inside T2 range, inside Previous Day range. T2 and Previous Day lows are both at our Key Support areas, will we break them today and get continuation lower to next support or will we get a reversal to take out support OR spend another day in balance? Chances are good to see continuation lower but with this market we have to be careful and watch for continuation at our key location because reversal can be quick, depending on what we do at 830, today we have Daily Support at 4012-3990 which for now seems we are breaking, Key Support for continuation lower 3976-71 if we break and accept below we will find ourselves under T2 and previous days lows which could bring in more selling and our lower target could be 3957-53 // 3944-40 and Next Daily Support area around 3930 - 3890. For any upside to happen we NEED 3994-89 or 76-71 to hold AND get back over 4012-08 and HOLD then we can see a move back over 4030-25 and make upper resistance targets in play. So far our signs are pointing lower until shows otherwise. Levels to Watch : Resistance : Key Daily 4030 - 4012 Key Intraday 4012 - 08 // 4030 - 25 // 4046 - 42 Intraday ? 3994 - 89 Support : Key Daily 4012 - 3990 (currently broken) // 3930 - 3890 Key Intraday 3994 - 89 // 3976 - 71 // 3957 - 53 // 3930 - 3927 *** Careful trying to trade long if we are under T2 low because that can bring on margin call selling.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Weekend Update: The Sky is kind of FallingLike most, the 2008-09 financial crisis had an impact on me, my family, my financial decisions, and pretty much everything. It was a life altering time period. Now, granted back then, I was a younger trader, and retirement was not on my radar screen. Fast forward 15 years into the future, and you bet, retirement is a blip on my radar screen now, and I’m paying attention. When it comes to retirement funds, I witnessed first-hand during the financial crisis of 2008-09, how people who had worked their entire life, saw the fruits of their life’s labor, dwindle to a pittance of what it was the year prior. So that time period in the markets had an effect on my perspective as I’m sure most of you reading this. 2008, I concluded was much like the stories my granddad told me of living during the great depression, and how that event shaped every decision he made until his passing in 2018. Now, I’m not prone to being “Chicken Little” and run around and say the sky is falling…. But this pressure on my head from the sky is kind of concerning. In my trading room, we held a training conference call this past Monday. I chose one attendee from the group to label a chart of price action. I told the attendees the chart they would be observing was a fictitious chart. This exercise is a function of helping novice Elliottitions come to an analytical thesis about the price pattern and structure their viewing. In this particular example, the attendee labeled a full pattern and stated a retrace of a certain magnitude was order. Now bear in mind, this is an exercise in structural observation and it takes a total of a five minutes to conclude. It is by no means a scientific conclusion. But to come to that conclusion in such a short period of time was worth discussing further. The pattern must be obvious for novice Elliottitions to form a conclusion in such short order. In truth, that exact chart used during the exercise was the SPX monthly cash market since inception. To the attendees it was labeled as the American Bottling Company, Inc., an obvious fictitious company. This was done to prevent the attendees from regurgitating the SPX analysis we discuss on daily basis. We discussed the exercise, and ultimately concluded that a retrace to the wave 4 of one lesser degree was in order from a minimum standpoint. I then, came clean and told the attendees they had just forecasted a 50% drop in the SPX . That forecasted low, in this very unscientific and quick observational analysis put the SPX cash index back to COVID-19 low of 2192 . Today, the SPX is at 4012.32. To get to 2192 would constitute a 45% haircut. I cannot stress this enough…that is the ideal retracement area. If you study Elliott Wave Theory, you’ll know that a wave 4 ideally retraces .382 of its wave 3 all the way up to .50%. If my analysis is correct, wave 3 started in the aftermath of the stock market crash of 1929 and concluded in January 2022. To retrace .382 of that price action is in the 2960 area and 50% of that retracement would equal 2300-2400. So the area at or slightly higher than the COVID-19 should get tagged. Let’s discuss how we get there. With respect to the impending downside, the first break in upside price action comes with a breach of 3901.75. A breach of that price changes the upside pattern we've been tracking since the October lows of 3502, into a new downside pattern. At that point in time 3788 comes into view. Depending on the structure this forecasted move down takes, I will be able to dial in short and potentially longer term targets. Support regions below that are 3590 and the October low of 3502. Any breach of 3590 brings the real possibility of 3300-2800 into view. I conclude with I have shared this analytical thesis of mine with my followers on TradingView.com on several occasions. Am I urging everyone reading this to sell? I cannot, nor will I, provide such direction. It would be irresponsible of me to word my warning as such. Let’s just say, when it comes to market price action, we have no shortage of opinions. Feel free to consider or dismiss mine. Additionally, I am not trying to be purposefully ambiguous. Let’s just say, for this trader, I am looking at moving all retirement assets to cash equivalents for an intermediate period of time, if we can get into my gray target box. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
4
SPY Daily Modeling turns BEARISH (RISK-OFF). PAY ATTENTIONMy advanced modeling and TV scripts recently turned BEARISH on the Daily SPY. This means the markets have moved into a RISK-OFF mode - likely preparing for additional downside trending. While the Weekly modeling continues to stay BULLISH, I'm writing this update to warn my followers that both the Rotational Modeling and the TT-3MACD strategies have turned BEARISH on the SPY. My US real Estate Modeling shows an incredible bout of price weakness, seller desperation, and broad SHOCK taking place for US Real Estate. This combined Real Estate and US stock market shock could lead to an incredible downside price trend if a credit/banking collapse unfolds (much like 2008-09). You have been warned. Follow my research. Move a good chunk of your capital away from risks. This is now a much more violent market event that could unfold in the near future. The Fed MUST address the extended price collapse that is currently gripping the US/Global markets. Things could turn UGLY very quickly if finance/banking/credit seizes up. Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
1
#ES_F 2.23.23 Day Trading Prep 2.22.23 Review: Wednesday Globex failed to continue lower, RTH Opened and failed to accept over 4012-08 and that gave us a test of 3994-89 bottom of our Daily Support where we found buyers on the first test. It was FOMC Day but things were still moving well. We did get another test and full break of 3994-89 which tells us we have supply but I think because it was end of day that instead of continuation we got short covering before the close back towards Supply without leaving our current balance area. 2.23.23 Prep: Daily Support held yesterday but are we getting a bounce, another tighter range balance day or continuation lower? We failed to break 3994-89 yesterday which told us we still had buyers and not enough supply at that time but do we have buyers strong enough to hold us and push us back over resistance? We know the buying yesterday was mostly short covering at Daily Support before the level break, IF today we cant get back over 4030-25 and get back under 4012-08 there is a very good chance to test that 3994-89 again and if we break this time we will again find us under T2 and Previous Day Lows which could bring further continuation to the downside if that will happen we can watch lower targets if we get under 3976-71 our lower Support areas will be in play. If we do hold 4012-08 and get over 4030-25 we can attempt a run our higher Supply area over 4046-42. If we fail to really get going anywhere today its possibly to stay in this 4012-08 - 4046-42 range as well, we watch level to level for continuation to either side. Levels to Watch: Resistance: Key Daily 4103-4084 Key Intraday 4030-25 // 4046-42 Key For Continuation 4061-56 Support: Key Daily 4012-3990 Key Intraday 4012-08 // 3994-89 // 3957-53 Key For Continuation 3976-71
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
MENT SPY DayTrader Page Update (2-22-23)I've been working on the TT-3MACD PineScript update for about 4+ days. It seems every time I make a breakthrough, there is more to attempt to build into it. PineScipt seems pretty cool so far. Documentation is great - but it is a process of learning how the engine processes things. My goal is to build a TEACHABLE solution for my followers - allowing them to make their own decisions based on my research and other strategies. Ideally - it is about teaching others when and how to trust their own intuitions. This video update shows you the FOUR components of my strategy so far: - The TT-3MACD Strategy (including entries/targets/reversals) - Running on a Heiken-Ashi chart - The Standard Candlestick chart - running the Linear Regression tool - The 3D Wave indicator - The Donchian Ribbon Indicator. Using these in combination with Fibonacci price theory (Higher Highs/Lows in an UPTREND - Lower Highs/Lows in a DOWNTREND) - should be just about everything any SPY Daytrader could want to learn to get started. It really is THIS SIMPLE. The only other thing you need to learn is position sizing techniques. In other words, when to be more aggressive and when to be patient (trading smaller position sizes). Follow my research and let's see if we can get all of my followers into a better place to start profiting from SPY price swings. I will post another update/video when I publish the MENT TT-3MACD strategy for all to use.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
ES - Just in Case...I'm publishing this as an alternative EW count. I've been suspicious of many of the attempts to label the waves off the 2022 top. This hypothesis will be labeled as a "WXY" to label a double zig zag pattern On the ES...my assertion is the true top was in Nov 2021. The ultimate top was part of a three wave move that I'm counting as part of a series of three wave moves making up the eventual decline to the June 15th 2022 low. I'm labeling this structure as W From that point the move up to the Aug. '22 high was a three wave affair that I am labeling X. The move down from that point to the eventual bottom in October was clearly 5 waves... (The first such decline wave pattern off the '22 top) This gets labeled A of Y The next structures make up the abc of B of Y. The ensuing move down, should this unfold as illustrated, will ultimately take out the Oct '22 lows. The Star on the chart is positioned perfectly at the 1:1 ratio of W:Y This is being published as an alternative to my previous posting for the ES/SPX road ahead. See link below. Best be prepared! Here is another view with a lower fib level depicting the "nuclear" pathway..
CME_MINI:ES1!
by oliverrathbun
3
#ES_F 2.22.23 Day Trading Prep 2.21.23 Review: Tuesday Globex made a move under Previous Day Low and our 4061-56 Support. RTH Opened, filled the gap and got continuation lower into our next Daily Support at 4012-08. The way we opened/drove made me think there is a chance to break Daily Support but market held after the break and that tells us that selling is still mechanical and that its just supply coming out no outside selling. 2.22.23 Prep: We are currently sitting on top of our Daily Support of 4012-3990, Globex made a move under 4012-08 took the stops but didn't have supply to tag 3994-89. Tricky day today with the Fed Minutes but we have some good references to watch. We are inside Previous Day Range and over our Daily Support and these will be key areas today, we are still under T2 range which means we should see more sellers at some point but we need to watch which areas they step in, if we don't have outside supply right now then then price could still head higher before finding sellers if sellers come in at all unless more volume comes in at RTH and they take it lower right away. We are at Support area and we have to treat it as such until broken. Right now 4012-08 // 4094-89 are our key areas for continuation lower and 4030-25 is what we will be watching to make a move higher. Our bigger supply areas for the day are over 4046-4061 and 4084-77 possible areas to watch where more sellers can step in if we get there. If Daily Support gets broken we will watch for possible targets down to 3976-71 // 3957-53 a potential area to find support. Levels to Watch: Resistance - Key Daily 4103-4084 Key Intraday 4084-77 // 4061-56 Intraday 4046-42 // 4030-25 Support - Key Daily 4012-3990 Key Intraday 3994-89 // 3976-71 // 3957-53 Intraday 4012-08 ? *** Caution as Minutes can bring big swings today at 2.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES_F 2.21.23 Day Trading Prep 2.16-17.23 Review: Thursday we failed to continue over 4170 and failed to hold 4143-37 which gave us a move to our lower target down at T2 low and a break of 4103-4099. Friday we opened at potential support area and were able to hold it during the day due to short covering before the weekend with a move back towards potential resistance towards the close but failed to get over it and get back towards 4100. 2.21.23 Prep: We are not counting Sunday/Monday action because of the Holiday. Currently inventory is short compared to Friday's close, we are under T2 low, barely inside Previous dat Range and are under Daily Support. Will we see continuation today and how far can we go? We will have to see what they got in store for us, we have now accepted in this 4080-4030 range, currently still have support at this 4061-56 area. Since inventory is short we might see some correction before or after open and from there we need to see if we will get a continuation move today or a reversal back towards 4100. For any move higher to sustain I think we would want to see price take out 4084-77 and base there before moving over 4100. For continuation lower we want to see us holding under 4084-77and eventually take out Previous day low and continue, Our next potential support is under 4030-25 which would be our next Daily Support at 4015-3990. The way we are looking today, we should see some continuation but anything can happen and we could balance some more. We have supply now but we also have shorts covering each step lower which is giving us these holds, until we see us run out of supply or a big bid come in direction could still be lower with 4030-15 and under an area where we could see buying. Levels to Watch: Resistance - Key Daily 4123-4100 Key Intraday 4084-77 // 4103-4099 Support - Key Daily 4012-3990 Key Intraday 4046-42 // 4030-25 // 4012-08 Current ? 4061-56 *** Treat today as Monday and it might need time to show the move this morning. Watch where we open
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
2
SPY bullflag continuation or breakdown? I think its safe to say many of us have been surprised by the strenghth of the market these past few months. Global economic uncertainty is at all time highs, but the market doesnt care. Thats one reason I prefer to play the trends as opposed to making predictions. All too often I see furus on twitter making fools of themselves calling crashes every other day when its so obvious buyers (big buyers)have been accumulation for quite awhile. Market behavior is something you can only learn with screen time and lord knows I've spent enough time to know that the market character changed some months back. That does not mean it can't change again in a heart beat. I'll be watching for the shift. On to my analysis....Whether or not we get a continuation of the bullflag -and resulting breakout will entirely depend on whether we can hold the bf channel bottom at 403. Keep in mind this is the 4th test of that channel bottom and each test weakens that support. Failure should bring us to the untested demand zone at 398-400 which also an inflection point because it coincides with the rising channel from Oct lows + the 50 ma is rising into that are and if spy is indeed in a bull market, the 50ma will act as support. Let me know what you think. I always appreciate feedback. Cheers.
AMEX:SPY
by GreenBoxTrading
The opposite Side Of A Wave-5 Rally - Plan BI received a question from someone watching my videos/research. The question was, "what is the downside risk for the markets if my bullish resolution fails". So, I created this video. This explains why the downside risks appear to be less than 35% right now compared to a 65% to 75% upside price resolution. Still, using Elliot Wave, we can't be 100% confident in the true future of price structure or wave structure. All we can rely upon is Fibonacci Price Theory which tells us if price is currently Bullish or Bearish. Right now, on this weekly chart, Fibonacci Price Theory suggests a bullish price trend is in place and recent Unique Low levels are the final defense of support (near $348). Follow along to better understand how I see/use Fibonacci Price Theory in all of my research as a method of letting price tell me what to expect in the future. The one other thing I would like to add is all previous market collapse events have aligned with cataclysmic economic events (9/11, Global Banking Crisis, Foreign Economic Crisis, Isolated Credit Risks). Without some cataclysmic economic event happening, it is very unlikely that US markets would contract extensively without some impulse event. So keep that in mind as we move forward. Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1