ES -> Short Trade IdeaTrend Line Liquidity Grab Completed -> Anticipating Significant Decline in Price Now!
ES
SPX - decisions, decisionsPowell speaking today will be a wild card for the markets - a sort of mini fomc. I still expect a sell off to the daily 18ma at 4060 this week, but if we are going to have a final rally it should be from there (green path). If they sell hard under the 18 ma, it may act as resistance on any bounce (red path). One more up would give us regular bearish divergence and probably a double top - or close to it. I'm open to both paths right now.
Good luck!
#ES_F Tuesday 2.07.23 Prep Review for Monday 2.06.23: Sunday Globex opened up and held under our Key Support of 4143-37 giving us a break into our Daily Support area under 4123-19 but found short covering front running 4103-4099 area, we took 3 attempts at it and all failed to reach which was telling us no lower continuation yet. We stayed in a tighter range as we thought we might in this area since now we have Supply over 4143-37 and buyers are still under our 4123 - 4100 -4084 areas. After big moves we need to do some cleaning, this was a good range to do it at. Question is can we stay in this range and attempt another move higher or they will slowly be marking this down and trapping buyers on their way.
Prep for Tuesday 2.07.23: Last night Globex Opened over our 4123-19 Support and since then been trading between that and Resistance. We have now accepted in this range under 4143-37 and unless we get back over it and hold there is a chance to visit lower areas. We are Under T2 range Today which signals weakness but for now inside Previous day range, we are looking to see if we will be able to hold within this range and just trade that or will we make a move out. We have our Key Resistance of continuation higher at 4143-37 as first step and 4168-62 as confirm for continuation but we now have Supply over that area so we will need to create some buying as shorts are slowing down unless we trap more here this week for another push. It could be a tricky day holding the range with a possible break lower later in the day once shorts see supply and longs are trapped so watch out for it being slow most of the day until later unless we get big volume at open and take our resistance. Getting under 4123-19 will be the first step which should have enough supply once it does to test 4103-4099 area where we see if we break it or not. Potential Targets today are 4103-4099 and 4084-77 those two will need to break to get anymore downside.
Levels to Watch:
Resistance: Key Daily 4214-4191 Key Intraday 4168-62 // 4143-37
Support: Key Daily 4100-4077 Key Intraday 4084-77 Current 4123-19 // 4103-4099
*** This Slow action and quick Reversals cleans out a lot of traders, its a clean up after a part from few weeks of run up and we are at an area where size will need to show us when we are ready to move. Expect Smaller trades unless we are breaking through levels and showing continuation.
#ES_F Monday 2.05.23 Prep Friday 2.03.23 Overview: Coming into the day we had our Globex inventory around 4168-62 Support which broke overnight, 8:30 am data gave us a flush taking out lower stops and finding support at our Key Intraday Support 4143-37, RTH Open didn't waste much time and corrected the inventory back inside the value and up to Intraday Resistance at 4191-85 this is an area we marked off to watch night before and if patient it gave a very good short trade all the way back to Intraday support, as much as it looked that we could break and keep going we also thought this day we could spend in Balance within this 4215-4140 range so the none break wasn't as surprising just frustrating. Even with the strong selling and supply building up over us we didn't break 4143-37 on that move lower which tells us that maybe we aren't done up here just yet.
Monday 2.06.23 Prep: Where are we? Currently in this bigger balance area of 4215-4100, we have supply over 4215 over 4190 and some over 4170. Friday Closed with inventory short right at Key Intraday Support, under T2 RTH range. As much as it looks like we are reversing we have to keep in mind if our business here is not done yet then we may stay around these areas some more building out structure for the next move. It is very possible to open Globex under Support and keep going or consolidate over it, break and keep going but we have to watch for this to happen first. For now looks like we have buyers under 4140 and 4120-4100, we are starting to see stronger selling from above 4190 but its not enough where they want to break it yet it seems so keep in mind until we see full breaks of Daily Support or Daily Resistance we can stay in this balance and possibly trade level to level especially if we start tightening up the range some. We could see more downside if we break 4143-37 but watch for buyers at lower support areas if we start holding and can't get under 4123-19 and especially tag or break 4103. For upside if we hold this 4143-37 can see a move back towards T2 low and maybe that 4168-62 Resistance but that would need to get taken out and get over 4191-85 to see more upside.
Levels to Watch:
Resistance: Key Daily 4215-4190 Key Intraday 4191-85 Current 4168-62 / T2 Low area
Support: Key Daily 4103-4084 Key Intraday 4123-19 // 4103-99 Current 4143-37 / Previous Day Low
**** Not a lot of market moving data this week except Fed doing discussions and Friday data release which makes it more possible to stay in some range and build structure. We keep that in mind until we see otherwise.
SPX 500 - just the technicals please - part 2 Technical review of the stock market after the FOMC rate hike and Jerome Powell speech. All in the video - I'm tired and will update tomorrow.
Es bias for next weekI am still bullish on the s&p and expect higher prices. We did some nice movement higher last week and a retracement is likely. This fits together with the Pow3 concept for a bullish week. On Monday I expect a drop to 4114, I think it has high probability to gap lower too. From 4114 I want to hunt for long entries and target 4221,25. From there I will see if it still wants to expand higher.
My ES Prep for week commencing 6th Feb 2023Market has been rallying despite potential upcoming recession. My suspicion that this is a large bull trap and there will be a large drop possibly even this week. Apple, Google and other large tech firms earnings were not great but their stocks mysteriously rallied. See their individual charts for possible gap up bull traps. Everything is poised for the rug to be pulled out for the current high greed in the market.
I have 3 possible gameplans depending on which direction they decide to to go first. I'm slightly biased towards the scenario where A and B get hit before a final rally before the long way down. However be ready for further upside pressure as the technicals would suggest a very bullish market (Which I don't believe), although it does appear to be overbought.
a.
IF we break and hold below C, look for high probability downside targets A and B.
THEN
EITHER rally to C, D, and E (More likely)
OR further downside targets of G,H,I
b.
IF we break and hold above D, look for targets E, F
THEN
EITHER further upside targets
OR once back below D play back down to G and C
c.
Play rotation between C and D
#ES_F Friday 2.03.23 Prep Review: Today we saw that our suspicions about possibly finding a place to tighten up a bit to get ready for next move might have been correct, still have to see what we do in Globex but so far the information we have is we have accepted in this 4220 - 4137 intraday range, we have supply over 4220 - 15, we have built a support last night Globex under 4061 - 62 and still have short holding us up under 4143 - 37. As long as we don't break down and fall apart or break out tonight this might be our range until we are ready for next move out or to drop the bid for lower distribution.
Prep: As Mentioned above we are currently in 4020 - 4137 Intraday Range with 4191 - 62 being our Value. Until we set up for a move outside of this range we can probably expect to spend some time in or around it and should be able to trade level to level once it sets up for a move away from value or back to value. Our T2 Range is under us which should give us support but we might dip inside it, if we do start taking out taking out Key Support or Resistance areas that is where we need to watch for reversal or continuation for a bigger move out of range or back to the other side, as mentioned it might take time now until we are ready for the move and right now is the time of patience to let things properly set up and show the way... long to set up, moves quick and reverses quick which means need to be patient and ready. I think once we are ready we have that nice space blow us to drop our bid to, we have 4100 - 4080 as potential lower support when we do but until then we might take our time.
Levels to Watch:
Resistance : Key Daily 4214 - 4191 // Key Intraday 4220 - 4215 // Intraday 4191-85
Support : Key Daily 4123 - 4084 // Key Intraday 4143 - 37 // Intraday 4168-62
Evening Update: My Last Weekday PostToday was a fairly predictable day if you traded my morning update chart. On the morning update post I posted my activity for a scalp. I'm short -3 ES at 4207 for a scalp anticipating price getting down to 4150-4160 area. We can get down into the 4120 area without invalidating anything but if this is going to continue to extend we should not get down that low. Now that we are not overlapping in 3-way moves it appears price is hitting standard fib areas for this c wave advance. Therefore I have no reason to believe we will not decline into the 4150-4160 area and make another high ( at the very least ) Remember we do not get our first sign we have topped until we breach 4048.50 and confirmation comes ONLY with a breach of 3901.75.
Best to all,
Important:
Due to the update in my profile section I will no longer be posting my Morning, Evening, Special and Trade Alert posts. Please reference that for more information. I will be posting a Weekend Update.
Tesla TSLA - The Bottom Is In, But It's Still BearishTesla has collapsed for five straight months, much to the delight of everyone who hates Elon Musk. To tell you the truth, I think Musk is something of a combination between a psyop, a Fabian, and a guy with some conservative values who wants to protect the happy life he has, but am not particularly a fan of his and don't trust him.
Regardless, the Mastodon socialists, the Reddit Marxists, and much of the supposed "liberals" just hate the guy because he purged the pro-child grooming pro-human trafficking pro-censorship communist old guard when he bought Twitter.
The way life under Communist Party rule works is this:
1. If the Party says you're good, you're good
2. If the Party says you're bad, you're bad
3. The Party is Great, Glorious, and Correct, and is always right
Thus, it really is self evident that it is time for mankind to sober up and eliminate the Chinese Communist Party's things from the areas outside of Mainland China. The Chinese people will soon deal with the CCP inside the Mainland, and Xi and the Party will be gone overnight.
The reason I bring the above up is not to get political or soapbox, but to point out to readers that when you get yourself caught up in these campaigns, you are going to bottom short and lose money because your vision is clouded and you're listening to a political campaign and not a professional.
I've seen so many people calling for $80 TSLA or for Tesla to go the way of Enron and collapse to zero in the next few months that it's actually both alarming and amusing at the same time.
The more your vision is clouded by prejudice as a trader the more likely you are to be one of those guys on r/WallStreetBets posting his 6 figure account that went busto buying $200k worth of short term $25 call options on Peloton, lol.
Black swan risks:
Because of the situation in Mainland China under the Chinese Communist Party as it faces the disaster of the Wuhan Pneumonia epidemic, Tesla and its Shanghai Gigafactory faces significant risk that could cause any successful long trade to endure a market-open gap down exceeding 20%.
For the reality is that the CCP has always been lying and covering up the pandemic situation. All its data and all its narrative are bogus. Really, the epicenter of COVID and a country of 1.5 billion people is posting positive case counts and death counts 95-99% lower than literally every single other country on the entire planet?!
The Party did the same thing during the 2003 SARS epidemic and yet nobody seems to have learned to not trust what that murderous regime says or the numbers it reports.
But you can't do anything for a fool who believes in the Marxist-Leninist atheism and evolution hoax and actually wants the genocidal CCP Red Dynasty in the first place.
The problem for Tesla is the Shanghai Gigafactory seated in Babylon is "our main export hub, supplying vehicles to most markets outside of North America," according to the Q3 earnings Shareholders Deck .
The Babylon Gigafactory has the capacity for three times as many units as Berlin and Texas, and even exceeds California's production capacity.
This is significant for longs because when the Communist Party falls, 6:00 PM Beijing time is 7:00 AM New York Time, and you won't like getting caught in the 1,000 point SPX gap down that the regime's collapse causes and what Wall Street does during that session as it runs for its life when everyone is caught off guard like they were when the USSR fell.
In my opinion, $108 in the last week of December was Tesla's bottom, evidenced by bounce back to $124 that happened Thursday and the strong weekly close to end the year.
However, for long-term Tesla bulls, this is a very bearish indicator, as evidenced on the monthly chart:
For long term bulls, you really do not want a stock to break a major 2-year-old bullish order block, which is exactly what Tesla did. It should maintain it and sharply reverse if there's to truly be another leg up.
There's a direct precedent for this principle on the Nasdaq NQ CME Futures, which did exactly this in March, had an impotent bounce, and has since not been bullish at all. Tech has just been a slaughter house with the exception a few days like November CPI.
Tesla gives you some greater clarity on the weekly candles:
What's strange about Tesla's price action is:
The triple top at $315 before it started dumping. This becomes a big target on a reversal.
The $414.50 ATH. Yes, this was pre-splits, but remember Elon is the guy who paid $5 4.20 a share for Twitter.
Breakaway gap/liquidity void at $263.55. These also become targets once the algo and its MM have achieved their downside objectives.
In my opinion, Tesla on the hourly looks like a pretty solid reversal with the gap between $113 and $118 potentially being a breakaway gap.
Another big factor to consider is that the TSLL 1.5x leveraged bull ETF has fallen from $27~ to $6 during this bear run.
A very likely and rational target for this to retrace to when it does go in the other direction is $10. This is a lot of upside and makes for a heck of a trade. TSLL also traded at double its average volume literally three times last week, with 15 million shares being traded on Dec. 29.
Someone had to be the buyer on those trades and they didn't buy so it can go to $4 so easily.
So here's some potential scenarios:
1. Tesla is extremely bearish but will retrace anyways.
If this is the case then $160 is where it should go and it should get held back at the last green daily candle that peaked at $160.93. Either way, this is a pretty good long from the $120s.
2. Tesla has achieved its downside objective and MMs will target short seller funds' buy stops
This particular outcome I regard with a high degree of probability. If so, $330 is exactly where it will go before it will die. This is an amazing long.
3. Nasdaq is about to bounce to 15,000 and Tesla follows a huge bear market rally to perform a bump and run reversal to $420.20
I have reservations about the realism of this outcome, but I definitely believe it's a significant possibility between now and April if a genuine 2008-style market crash is en route for humanity in 2023.
Things that won't happen:
Tesla will not continue on to $500 with a new leg up. Frankly speaking, we're standing at the end of the good times.
It's up to you what you believe. One thing I know is that people don't believe in anything until they see it, and then they FOMO or get scared and give themselves regrets.
But what I want to say to all of you is: if you want a future you have to "practice social distancing" and "hand sanitizing" with the Chinese Communist Party and all of that Marxist atheism and evolution junk.
You need to return to tradition and come to understand that it's no less than the Divine side of the Cosmos our Earth is seated and rotating in that brings a future.
The Chinese Communist Party is a demon that was arranged to destroy the human race. Whoever can't see this are the greatest morons.
#ES_F Thursday 2.02.23 Prep Review For 2.01.23: Fun day with the Fed today, not sure I how missed so many signals today for a long trade and why I was so short biased coming into today after mentioning Friday that we had more in the tank the way we closed and from our pre Fed price action. If long at the break over 4084-77 was caught, it made a nice little run over our Daily Resistance area. Our signs today were that we flushed trapped supply Monday leaving short stops above 4103 then yesterday the dip was bought and we made a lower high getting in more shorts at the area, Globex opened below and we consolidated around 4084-77 all night. When RTH failed to continue higher we built up inventory and flushed it twice but each time we failed to tag our lower Support at 4061-56 that was a big red flag because to continue lower we needed to take out 4060 area and build structure under it to be within striking distance of T2 low but we didn't do that and when Fed data came out at 2pm and 2:30pm Periods we both dipped under breaking the support but quickly coming back out signaling no supply, once 84-77 was taken again strong we had shorts trapped under us and once we took the stops over 4090 and 4110 that covering provided the buying to get us higher. Question going forward is will we accept here for now and attempt to distribute lower or will we come back in and how long will this move hold before continuing or reversing?
Overview For 2.02.23: We are currently over our Daily Resistance area of 4123-4084 over this intra day range top of 4143-37, over T2 range with position below us at 4084-77 area. Question going forward is are we ready to keep moving, reverse or is this a good area to tighten up the range a bit while we still have Support below us and Supply above us too keep us from running away too much? If they wanted to keep this in some balance to clean out more traders before we decide on direction then this would be a good spot to do it but at these areas anything can happen really so its best to watch level to level. Going into Globex for me this 4143-37 area is like out middle for tonight with our Resistance being 4168-62 and possible Support down at 4123-19. Until things are clear we watch for set ups around resistance and support and trade towards the middle unless there is a break and continuation or break/hold over to either side, if we are to keep ranges small that might be the case going into RTH tomorrow but all will depend on what we do tonight if we drop the bid at night and start taking out our lower Support areas then we need to watch out.
Levels to Watch:
Next Daily Resistance 4214-4191 Intraday Resistance 4168-62 // 4191-85 // 4220-14
Possible Daily Support? 4123-4103 ( Previous Resistance not really tested)
Intraday Support 4123-19 // 4103-99 // 4084-77 If we happen to do reverse at night or some point and break those levels next daily Support is 4012-3990
****** There are a lot of split views right now with people thinking we should reverse fall apart or keep going to 4300-4500 which might give us some indecision and smaller ranges with moves taking longer to clean people out unless our business is concluded today and shorts are covered to drop the bid lower or we get over 4168-62 and hold to continue higher AND IF we do get under 4143-37 tonight and just continue to drip lower don't look to buy at support but instead this might be a reversal back towards 4084-77 and under don't stand in the way if we can hold lower areas
Using Fibonacci Price Theory To PROTECT Your TradesProtecting Your Trades With Fibonacci Price Theory.
Learn to understand the BELTLINE range (50%) and why it is so important for structuring your trades for profit.
Not all trades will be successful - plan for FAILURE.
Planning for FAILURE = Long-Term SUCCESS.
Follow my research.
The rabbit-hole of knowledge I've amassed over the past 25+ years is deep. I could go on and on about different strategies, theories, concepts, and indicators.
What I've learned is...
KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid!
_ The IDIOT SYSTEM is often the best for new traders.
_ Use Multi-timeframes to confirm price trend/direction.
_ Use PRICE STRUCTURE as the core of all of your research.
Hope these help everyone out.
Pay Attention.
Special Update: This is an UGLY rally, But I'm done FightingThere is so much I don't like about this rally (I have addressed this a lot in the past) but price is the ultimate arbiter. So, it is not my nature to be closed minded. Am I ready to go long? No...but the market doesn't care about my readiness.
Let's recap my trading:
1. I am short -25 4300 calls at $7 that expire End of February. I raised $8,679 in premium. Today those calls appreciated to as high as $16.50 so my trade drawdown was a staggering 120%. Currently the price to buy back is $12.50 which would cost me $15,554.50 so almost double what I raised. Now, in truth, those options have NO intrinsic value. Their only value is those options have 27 days of life...but they're worthless below 4300. I made a hedge trade that profited $7350 so account wise I'm not in a bad situation at all. This strategy is my edge. I spend a lot of time analyzing charts but my trade strategy is encapsulated by planning on being wrong and profiting. Hopefully that makes sense. I hope to educate on this strategy as I think it's the only way to trade as a business.
Lets recap my analysis:
I believe I have misjudged this rally off the 3502 low. This has moved higher much faster than I anticipated and in the interim, (even though I knew price would come into the 4300-4500 area)...I didn't anticipate for it happen so fast. But I have given price every opportunity to retrace into the areas I have been anticipating 3850-3700 and that hasn't happened. Therefore I have look at this with fresh eyes and come up with a rational means of profiting from the price action. So let's discuss the details.
1. The upside officially is not confirmed until price breaches 4180 which hasn't happened.
However, we're above ALL Fib retracement levels.
Price is not screaming at us, but it's definitely raising it's voice it has intentions are go beyond the 4180 area. So, "Price, you have my attention".
Sidebar: Back to my strategy of selling premium. I still have 160 points to fashion a hedge. I cannot stress enough that trading for profit is different from just trading. IT IS MY JOB TO PROTECT THAT POSITION. I will take action to either protect through hedging, or trading around that position, but I cannot stress enough, this strategy allows you to be wrong, and still profit. It is my central strategy. Some people are married to crypto, stocks, or indices. I'm married to profit. This strategy affords me the highest probability of profiting the vast majority of times.
2. Giving price the benefit of the doubt, I have to claim the 3788.50 bottom in mid December is our b wave bottom. If I get get proven wrong so be it...but risk management dictates for me to posture my trading that price is going to 4300-4500. I do not see it going there in February...but I'm going to be open minded.
3. Therefore based on our b wave being done we have key resistance areas at:
(1) 4180 which is the prior high
(2) 4207.50 .618 Extension of our a and b waves
(3) 4309.25 is the .618% retracement level of the entire decline. Expect a reaction here.
(4) 4321.25 .786 Extension of our a and b waves
(5) 4327.50 The August 2022 highs
(6) 4466.50 The 1.0 Fib Extension
If we get over 4180, these are the price points that become essential to me to trade around. If we fail to get above 4180, then we can decline in a flat back down to 3788 area of higher, but that's the parameters as of now.
Lets look at the micro count:
Whether this is a c wave top (abc off of 3788 not to exceed 4180) or wave 1 of a larger c of b into the 4300-4500 area is yet to be seen. 4180 will answer that question for us.
But I'll be watching for a retrace in a wave 2 to potentially put on a long mainly for hedging.
I'll update in the morning but this is timely analysis and I wanted you to have it tonight once I finished it.
With that I’m done for evening.
Best to all,
Chris
Part 2 - Fibonacci Price Theory on SPY 60 Min (Deeper we go)After 25+ years of research, study, and application of some of the most incredible trading strategies - I'm sharing one of the MOST IMPORTANT structural price theories with all of you...
The Fibonacci Price Theory.
The primary rule of the Fibonacci Price Theory is:
Price is ALWAYS seeking NEW HIGHS or NEW LOWS. Price is never NOT attempting to reach NEW HIGHS or NEW LOWS.
Let that sink in for a minute.
If you knew price was always attempting to establish a trend, or continue a trend.. how would that change your trading/investing tactics?
What if I showed you how I use Fibonacci Price Theory? And how YOU can use it to further your own trading skills?
Here you go, A 60 minute SPY chart where I'm applying the basics of Fibonacci Price Theory to the current market price rally.
If you've ever wanted to learn the TRUE CONSTRUCT of price - this is it.
All other technical analysis techniques (Elliot Wave, Indicators, & others) are constructed from PRICE.
Price is the Ultimate Indicator.
Pay attention and follow my research.
Learning Fibonacci Price Theory - MUST WATCHEven though I got cut off after about 25 minutes, I'm sharing this with all of you to teach you how to use one fo the most important PRICE STRUCTURE features for any chart
Fibonacci Price Theory.
The consensus of all TA is that PRICE tells us everything.
Fibonacci Price Theory is the REAL DEAL.
Use it on a 1 minute, 5 minute, 60 minute, or Daily - ANY TIME-FRAME
Use it in conjunction with other TA/Indicators.
Use it with Elliot Wave analysis.
USE IT.
My experience is that all indicators/theories/strategies have strengths/weaknesses. If you are not aware of them (yet) - pay attention.
Follow my research and I'll continue to try to share tidbits of advanced TA/Fibonacci with you.
I created this to help my followers/friends learn one of the most critical price structure components of my own research. I see all price charts in the manner I've illustrated in this video.
After more than 15 years of applied Fibonacci Price Theory/Structure - I can't help but NOT see price as "Fibonacci Fractals".
Hope this helps.
SPY Measure Move (Pause) Video Update - Rally To $421 PendingHere is a video update for my followers. This video is in support of the recent SPY updates I've shared over the past few days.
Follow my research. Learn how my analysis skills can help you prepare for the biggest price swings.
These are not the same markets as 2008 & 2000.
Learn to adapt to price trends and become a better trader.
I'm trying to teach you to use the techniques I've learned over the past 25+ years to hone your own decision-making skills.
Pay attention.
SPX500 / ES / SPY - Enjoy the Party While It LastsThe period of market activity following the November CPI pump has been both a choppy grind and hard to get a handle on. I had personally believed that the market makers would run 3,700 long ago, but that we wouldn't set new lows.
Turns out, after much deliberation, they ran 4,150 instead and dumped it back to 3,800 but still haven't taken 3,700.
When trading, anyone who genuinely "knows" what is going to happen also isn't allowed to speak to the public. There are contracts binding their mouths with big penalties for violation.
Ergo, literally all of us who are trying to do this are making a best-basis effort to anticipate what's going on and what's going to happen with limited information available.
What this means is that to increase your accuracy and avoid blowing yourself up, you have to continually revaluate what you think is going to happen on the basis of what is actually happening in front of you. This is an important ability to build, but there's a lot of inner obstacles. You can only do it via determined and diligent mental and emotional self cultivation and improvement.
All on its own the last 45 days of price action tells us something. The December FOMC rendezvous with the September CPI dump formed a double top where big, big fund positions selling short will be carrying market buy orders to exit their positions as part of their risk model because "resistance was broken."
In terms of the market retracing and coming back to take out that level, this doesn't always work out, as seen on both Tesla at $315 and WTI Crude at $93.
But, when combined with this three week period of "bear flagging" (it's just consolidation) and, as we saw on Friday with an unwillingness to trade lower even on Non-Farm Payroll day, arguably the third most volatile news driver of the month behind CPI and FOMC, it tells us more.
Looking at daily candles,
The fact that the market makers appear to want to trade higher without trading just a little bit lower to take the giant fund sell stops at 3,700 indicates to me that the biggest cowboys are actually long and the intention is to keep selling.
Now, you're probably used to thinking, "Doesn't the price go down when big money is selling? Doesn't it go up when they're buying?" The answer to that is yes, but no.
Think about it: if the banks were to sell low and buy high and then buy high and sell low, like you do, wouldn't there be a 2008 financial crisis all the time? Wouldn't they also blow their accounts like you do?
Instead, although it takes a lot of money to buy and sell the orders planted along the way, the reality is that big funds and banks are selling on green and buying on red.
Selling on green and buying on red.
I've heard if you work at a trading desk and you buy on green and sell on red you'll quickly find yourself holding a filing box on the sidewalk waiting for the Uber to take you back to your apartment.
This is really worth thinking about.
Looking at monthly bars, last January was a 600 point nuclear month. The algorithms, although they do perform fractals on a consistent basis, generally, do not like to repeat themselves in such an obvious way.
Ergo, expecting January '23 to be a big nuclear month may be a bit of an error in judgment.
I think everyone now understands that the global economy is in big trouble, the living environment is in trouble, and on top of that the central banks aren't in the mood to run a bailout or a rate cut to save markets from crashing.
And yet, they don't crash.
That's because it's the same idea as the blade of a guillotine. Before you drop the hammer and decapitate your victim, you first slowly pull the rope so the knife is hanging high over head.
"The bigger they are, the harder they fall."
I believe that what we're about to see happen is SPX 4,230. There's a gap conveniently placed right above the double top from before September CPI. Both this and the late December pivot @ 3,79x are both very obvious on weekly candles.
Once we get there and everyone has turned bullish again and forgotten where they are in the diagram, then it's time to start looking seriously at getting risk off and buying puts.
Once the calamity really starts to unfold, you aren't going to see consolidation like this and we're not likely to get big bounces along the way. The kind of 200 points down one day 200 points up the next saw during COVID hysteria also isn't likely to unfold.
It's just a question of what the catalyst will be.
And that catalyst may very well come in the form of "China."
I say "China" because although it may unfold in the nation of China, the issue is the Chinese Communist Party. You really have to separate that rogue regime from "the Chinese people" and "the Chinese nation."
China is being absolutely sacked by Wuhan Pneumonia. The pandemic situation there is not like the COVID pseudo-pandemic we saw in North America. And this situation has been true for the better part of 3 years.
Although the CCP covers it up and hides the data, just like they did during 2003 SARS, nobody seems to have learned their lesson that the regime is a chronic liar. Or at least, when it comes to the topic they exercise "Three Monkeys."
One day that isn't all that far away, Xi Jinping and the Party will really be unable to contain reality any longer. In the same way that a forest fire that's absolutely out of control and absolutely raging will eventually roll towards the city (See 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire) and start smashing up industry, people, lives, and the regime for real.
The warnings signs of this will be kept quiet by western media until it can't be hidden any longer. So you likely won't get much notice besides that prices stay high while volume drops and the USD and VIX start going on a "weird" moon mission.
When it starts, you'll be greeted by unprecedented Monday morning breakaway gap downs that never recover.
Ultimately, what I want to say to everyone who reads this is that the tribulation won't be limited to China's borders and will quickly become international. It will be the kind of thing that global governments cannot keep a handle on, either, and the problem will concern more than your stock portfolio.
To evade and escape the disaster, it's absolutely critical that you do your part to oppose, reject, and stop supporting the Chinese Communist Party and all the Marxist-Leninist, socialist things it has spread around the world during the last 23 years via the United Front Work Department.
It's a choice you both have to make, and one you'll be forced to honour by history.
SPY Update (60 Min) - Rally Day Pause ExpectedEven though my SPY Cycle Patterns suggest today is a RALLY day, I see the SPY has extended to an upper resistance channel (near $414.80) and may pause/slide sideways/downward a bit today.
I do expect support near $412.30 to act as a floor for any contraction. I would expect the SPY to hold above $412.30 and attempt to rally higher IF this price level is tagged today.
Overall, if we see a rally above $415 today - the SPY will likely extend the rally phase. Possibly target $421 to $427.
The Fed unleashed a wave of RALLY (Risk-On) for many investors.
My advice - play this move safely right now. Although it looks very promising, I still believe 2023 will stay very congested until Q3:2023. Then, we may see a moderate MELT-UP extend to new all-time highs again.
Follow my research.
Morning Update: Looking at the Bullish PerspectiveIt's hard to get excited about something you don't like. That's the best way to describe this pattern...I don't like it. But moving forward the below becomes my primary micro count in (black) as I believe it has earned the benefit of the doubt.
I have an alternate count in (purple). However, I'm tracking this final move higher as impulsive so all the target boxes are areas I expect price to enter for each remaining wave. I can only assume we're going to extend because as of right this structure only points to 4240-4268.50. So if we are going to extend, wave 3 is where we should start to see some of that occur.
I am watching closely to see if price behaves by hitting ALL the ideal areas. Failure to do so may signal we're coming up short. First test is we should get one more poke higher to complete wave v of 3 into the 4177.50-4188 area. Our minor wave iv may not be done so a trip down to 4020-4040 should not be a surprise. Our MACD indicators are starting to show overbought levels...so a longer drawn wave iv makes sense.
My purple count supposes we could top where I'm counting wave 3. We do not get our first sign we have topped until we breach 4048.50 and confirmation comes ONLY with a breach of 3901.75. If we top in purple it is quite possible this entire move up will only be the a wave of larger B. That would certainly solve the time duration issue I have had. Key is to observe if price remains impulsive or if cracks start to emerge signaling we will not be hitting the standard retracement area for our larger b-wave this go around.
My goal is try to get my short position in a more delta neutral posture with a hedge of some sort. If I do anything to hedge, I'll update this post so if interested keep referring to this post to get the play by play.
Best to all,
Chris
IMPORTANT NOTE:
SOMETIME BETWEEN MID AND END OF FEBRUARY I WILL ONLY BE POSTING ONCE PER WEEK HERE ON TRADING VIEW. I WILL ONLY BE DOING WEEKEND UPDATES. THE MORNING, EVENING AND SPECIAL UPDATES YOU HAVE RECEIVED IN THE PAST WILL NO LONGER HAPPEN. AS I GET CLOSER TO CHANGING MY POSTING SCHEDULE ON TRADINGVIEW.COM I WILL UPDATE MY FOLLOWERS HERE. CHECK MY PROFILE AREA FOR DETAILS.
Time To Short? Major confluence amongst major levels of resistance, DXY moving up, VIX reached a low point of support and starting to bounce.
Only time will tell.
S&P market maker sell modelYoutube still wants to short it... but we come from a Monthly Orderblock. Shorting is DONE! Now the Buyside is target. They will create the "bullish breakout" and all the Buy stops get taken into the market. This is when everyone thinks crash time is over. But do you think economy is good? This displacement that they will create above the highs will trap everyone in long. This Breakout traders will be burned to death. Think about it... They are not done down there. They would not let the sellside sit there. This is where they all place the sell stops when they chase the breakout this month. And when the real crash comes in summer months, this is where smart money accumulates the sell stops to build the new long positions.
