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Morning Update: You’ve Got My Attention If you’ve traded the ES and the indices as a whole for any length of time you’ve heard the phrases “ The Markets is Climbing a Wall of Worry ”, or “ The Most Hated Rally ”. This signifies traders are not positioned to take advantage of a rally. Clearly sentiment was more negative than the market had intentions. I have been on the side of expecting lower prices. I’m a huge fan of the rally but only after prices retreated into the 3800’s first . However, I do not want to be a hater of a rally that leaves me behind, or worst, catches me short. Therefore, I wanted to provide my playbook as to not be caught off guard. All of my counts require some downside retrace of small to large magnitude. If price decides to trade above yesterday’s high...I may close all short calls. My January calls are almost worthless, but the position I opened yesterday will cause me concern because that doesn’t expire till end of February. In the cash market, this looks much cleaner. I would expect price to get a deep retrace or reconcile as an ABC zig zag down in the 3700’s. The ES always runs the risk of containing noise due to the lower liquidity of the overnights. Sometimes it will give you signals as to how the cash market will react, sometimes it confuses. I’m undecided as to whether it’s confusing noise, or it’s signaling to me the market intends to go higher and not retrace like my analysis shows. If ES trades above yesterday’s high. I may close out all short call positions. We have already extended to the 3.618% Fib Area...and I’m not going to give upside price advances much room before I pull the plug on shorting. Keep in mind, these are not outright short positions in the ES. If you’re outright short the ES right now, you’re giving yourself NO ROOM FOR ERROR. Therefore, have stops in place. I’ll be frank...if the market continues to move higher from here...I’ll hate the rally. Yes, I’ll be one of those traders. But will I allow it to cause losses....NOT ON YOUR LIFE. Suffice to say, the bulls have my attention now. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
11
#ES_F Overview for Monday 1.23.23 Review: Last week Thursday we got back to our possible support area under 3930 and we could see the short covering stabilize the price before RTH at 3915-10 area which was important going forward, during RTH we failed to continue lower and only did a look below Globex low and came back in without reaching next level and taking out the low from 1.10 signaling that sellers are running out. Friday Globex we consolidated more getting all the supply secured, RTH open gave us a flush under VWAP to get the last sellers out and once we got over 30 again shorts were trapped and we began mark up back to our Supply area which is over 3990. Overview: That flush Wednesday took out a lot sellers from this area so now we might be able to get through it easier and head for our next Resistance area. As we know the goal is to sell product higher to willing buyers and we need to create some demand, ideally we can hold over this 76-71 area or at least over 60 as we now have support below those areas and see a move higher to take out last weeks high which will bring in more demand to the store. I will be looking to see if we get any pull back tonight towards 76-71 area and if it holds or not, the way we high closed Friday we might not get much of a pull back and instead take out 94-89 area first and head for 4000 pocket, if that happens then any pull back to and under 94-89 could be a good opportunity to buy and eventually if we hold over this area and get through that 4000 pocket we can see a push higher into next resistance area to 4046-61 maybe little over it depending how much buying we get. Levels to Watch: 3976-71 // 3995-89 // 4012-08 // 4030-25 // 4046-42 // 4061-56 For better confirmation we can wait until 4012-08 gets taken/hold either in Globex or RTH tomorrow, if in Globex then we might see a re-test in RTH but either way if we get over this area we could see our move to 4030-25 // 4046-42 and if that is that 61-56. Trading it level to level is a safer bet since we would be in supply area and never know what can happen but ideally everything holds up nicely and we get the full move. IF we don't hold 76-71 first red flag, breaking under 60 big red flag and will need to wait because if that happens then trip lower could happen but being up here I would think that they will try to run the highs to bring in more buyers to sell product into.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
4
SPY New High - likely headed higher.Are you following my research yet? Check out my SPY Cycle Patterns and decide for yourself if my predictions are accurate: SPY Cycle Patterns for this week: 1/15/2023 GAP Potential 1/16/2023 GAP-Reversal 1/17/2023 Breakdown201 1/18/2023 POP 1/19/2023 1/20/2023 BaseRally301 1/21/2023 Break-Away 1/22/2023 Rally-111 1/23/2023 Carryover 1/24/2023 Inside-Breakaway 1/25/2023 Harami-Inside 1/26/2023 CRUSH 1/27/2023 Rev-Rally Now, using traditional Fibonacci price modeling, we can see the recent support level held and a New High was reached. This indicates the SPY will likely attempt a bit of consolidation/rotation over the next 4+ days, but will likely rally even higher in early Feb. Follow my research. It's simple and easy to follow.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
Evening Update: Things got complicated todayIf I had a $100 dollars every time I mentioned here on trading view that I spend 90% of my time analyzing and 10% of my trading I'd have a nice chuck of change. But markets are NOT linear, and that's why when I trade, I try to give myself the best opportunity for a profit. Let's discuss the (ES) chart first, then I want to juxtapose my analysis on the cash market (SPX). See Below Micro chart of the (ES). With price breaching the 4017 level, this rally off 3901.75 appearing impulsive in nature has surpassed the 2.618% Fib Level (Blue arrow and Circle). The 2.618% is usually good to halt most impulsive structures, even the ones that extend. However we blew right through that and even went over the previous local high of 4035. That presents us with several scenarios now. I must confess I'm split equally on each potential and therefore I do not have a primary pathway as of my writing this update. Black Count The black count supposes we bottomed in minor (b of larger "b") at 3901.75 last week. Under the black count we are now starting to carve out our initial subdivisions of our c-wave higher into the 4300-4530 area. To confirm black is the highest probability outcome and my primary pathway, price has to retrace in a wave 2 of c and should hold 3976-3934. Upon retracing to this area, I need to see an explosive rally that first breaches 4180 and ultimately goes to 4300-4530 area. Purple Count For the purple count to be a b-wave flat we need to see retrace but must hold 3841, (ideally 3912-3841) worst case scenario. Anything below 3841 and the newly added green count becomes the most viable option. Corrective Flats are not rare, but they are a pattern you don't certainly see that often. If price holds those regions, I would expect to see in the same manner as Black to the same area of the 4300-4530 region. Green Count The green count supposes our B wave has not concluded at all. I have stated for weeks that the overlapping manner of this pattern off the 4180 spike and reversal on December 13th was not a pattern in jeopardy of blasting off to the upside or the start of a new bullish trend. I still believe that. From a trader sentiment standpoint there's just too much indecision within that pattern to be a new bull run. Therefore Green is confirmed if price gets below 3841 (where both black and purple become invalidated or low probability). The green count reconciles low 3700 area for a standard "abc zig zag pattern". The SPX still looks like an ABC down to much further levels. That is why I believe the market is very confused as to what it wants to do (when I compare the ES to the Cash Market). I would assume in the days to come it's intentions will be known. Today I shorted -10 Feb EOM 4180 calls at $23 for $11,471 in Premium. Those calls went as high as $32 which gave me a 39.13% trade drawdown. This is not the area I feel like most my trades go. Short OTM calls at the 2.618% fib extension level is a "top tick" 9.9 out of 10 times. I'm still in this trade and will hold on for a retrace in either of the counts above and re-evaluate my position then. If anyone has any questions or comments please leave them below and I'll answer them all. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
7
Morning Update: Price in Target Box for Black "b"As I posted in my weekend update that price should spend early this week catching a bid and I expect pressure as the week progresses. There is the offshoot chance that this low of last week at 3901.75 was our larger b-wave bottom as outlined in purple on the above chart so be aware of this possibility. Purple is always my alternative count. In the primary Black count I am expecting price to eventually give way to lower prices into the mid 3800's. This current surge in prices that started on Friday has Fibonacci resistance up at 4017. That's not to say price will get there in the black count...but don't be surprised if it does. In the purple count, if price were to breach 4035, it certainly bolsters continuation upon a consolidation/retracement. As of right now I am in no rush to short this market...I am still in favor of observing the price action as I evaluate my trade strategy this week. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
2
Weekend Update: Slightly Higher Early Next Week, then Down?With price on Friday breaching 3969 which was the point where the purple count would become my primary over the Black count. The above chart features the old purple count as primary now. As you may remember under the purple count chances are much lower that price will make it down to the sub 3788 level. We needed to see an impulsive 5-wave pattern that could reach those levels given how we started and this doesn't appear to be the case. There's a purple "b" on the above chart. Although an alternative, our b could have bottomed. We have a 3-wave move down but only above 4035 does this become reasonable. I believe we will edge up early next week towards 3992 to as high as 4018 and start lower. This move lower should take us to the mid 3800 area. If price follows that path this is an area I hope to go long in size. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
6
ES week of 1/23Long on pullbacks/failed breakdowns to support levels as long as above 3923. 3900-3923 is kinda messy chop, below that long way down. Thinking gap to 3997.5 area Monday and pullback to 3972 then rally. Pullback to 3945-3960 area also possible. Will be looking to fade the open if we get a gap to/slightly below that 3997.5 area to 3985, 3972, 3960, 3951, 3945. Will be watching for failed breakdowns/successful backtests of these levels to long. Ultimately BTD above 3923, STR below 3900. 4021 PT on longs but I will not be swinging anything, day trades only.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by highvibetrades
Long S&P500S&P500 tapped its major uptrend supports last week and is holding above them. Great time to go long. It's quite unlikely to go much lower. Targets are around 4500 if/when the first major downtrend breaks (likely given the amount of short positions needing to cover). After that there is one last significant resistance above the last all time high around 4800. If that breaks, the S&P500 is poised for another mid 1990's or mid 1950's bull market that will eventually lead to the type of bear market everyone is predicting now (I wouldn't start looking for a 50% crash until around 2030). EUR/USD hit major support and is likely headed much higher. This means the dollar index is likely done rising. With the dollar falling, assets are likely to become less correlated and stocks can get back on their uptrend. Good luck out there!
SP:SPXLong
by bwy
3
Evening Update (Early): To "b" or not to "B" I'll make this clear, concise and quick. PURPLE If we retrace to at or above 3969....Purple is confirmed. 3969 would be the 50% retracement of wave 3. Now the impulsive count would not be invalidated but probability wise this is not a wave 4. This would be an ABC. The Purple count will not get to and below 3788. BLACK If price gets to approximately 3930-3945 and then retreats again to take out 3901.75 and goes to the area of 3880-3885 and begins to retrace higher over the course of the next day or so...this would be a clean 5-down and 3 up for a 1-2 down. This would point us to the mid to low 3700 minimum. In an abundance of caution I closed my short put position for about 80% of the premium. For accountability purposes, I posted that in the comments section of my morning update. I will be off the desk tomorrow unless the "DoDo hits the fan" (which I do not anticipate)....I'll post again in my weekend update. I'll still answer DM's and Comments. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
31
Morning Update: What's Next?I would anticipate our retrace up start today. This retrace will either be a minor wave 4 or a b-wave. If we get above 3972 then it's likely this is a b wave retracement and not a 4th wave in an impulsive wave 1 of c. Incidentally we're now in the target box for purple b. Micro chart below: I think we're extending in wave 3 still. So I anticipate a wave 4 retrace and OML if we are to remain impulsive....or we retrace in a b wave higher without a wave 4 consolidation as per the micro chart above. We have the .50% Fib Retracement Support at 3912...as well as the .618% at 3882.75. I expect a reaction off of one those if we get down that far today. Nonetheless, the most important thing I am watching today is the structure of this wave down, and the anticipated retrace. This will tell me if we're eventually going to sub 3788 or not. Best to all, Chris For those who are interested: I want to take a brief moment to explain the trade I did last night as I have gotten many DM's inquiring about it. This post is not the place to give a lesson in futures options. I hope to do that in the future as futures options are my main source of profit. When you trade an option, a contract between the buyer and seller is already organized within the option. I NEVER BUY OPTIONS...NEVER-EVER. I only sell. I do so, because I believe sellers have the statistical edge over buyers by an insurmountable percentage. Last night I sold 25 put contracts at the 3880 strike for $4.35 each. In doing do so, the buyer deposited in my account $5367. The trader who bought those options from me obviously thinks the ES will be below 3880 before those contracts expire which is tomorrow at 5pm EST. SO I'm selling a specific price, and at a specific time. Hypothetically, the ES could go to 3879 today but if it's above 3880 at precisely 5pm EST the buyer loses his entire investment to me. I sold those options last night when the ES was at 3939. Since last night the ES has gone against me by 20 points. But because time is ticking those options are only worth $3.50. So if I bought them back from him now I would pay $4,445.50. I would keep $921.50. Those options above 3880 have NO INSTRINSC VALUE. The buyer is gambling in my casino, and I am the house. Now, if the ES goes below 3880 between now and Friday at 5pm EST, these could become very expensive for me to buy back and therefore could lose a lot of money very quickly.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
14
Evening Update: Today was a Good StartWe're now getting into the target box for purple b. To me this move down reeks of a c wave. If this is a c wave...we may not get down to my primary target of sub 3788. To get down to sub 3788 we need a 5 wave move. Here's the micro of what I'm referring to. As of right this minute, I have to classify this as a C wave down. However, if tonight or into tomorrow, we get a shallow retrace higher and OML ...I'll have 5 clean waves down. Then that's a pattern that could reconcile in the sub 3788 area. If we trade above 3997 for any reason then that target will not happen. That's overlap. So the retrace is of vital important to my trading strategy. My shorts are up 90% in less than a week. Unfortunately I was only comfortable with getting off 10 contracts. If you did well today based on my updates, post in the comments...let me hear from you. I always enjoy reading the feedback (Good, Bad or Indifferent). Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
20
Evening Update: Did we top today?As an observer I would use word to describe the market over the last 2 weeks...Undecided. Much of what I track is coming into topping regions. It only stands to reason that the market will let loose soon and confirm my suspicions of lower before higher. From an Elliott Wave perspective I want to point out 2 patterns that should give those in the immediate bullish camp pause. These overlapping patterns (highlighted in green) can explained in traditional terms as sector rotation, but to an Elliotition, nothing is going to launch off of a pattern that looks like that. I would say today was boring...but when you're a seller of premium (like me)...today was somewhat of a payday. Let me explain briefly: I first opened a tranche of short 4100 Jan EOM calls when the ES was 3970. This was the area of the .618 retracement level of the most recent decline from 4180 to 3788. The market has moved against me since selling my first tranche. I sold a second tranche today at 4035 and received less premium. #BORINGEQUALSMONEY!!!! #LOWSTRESSTRADING I sure love selling something that I never owned, that even when I'm wrong, I still win. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
4
Morning Update: Encountering a Local Top Soon?Whether we have topped or about to top in our minor b of B, we should be anticipating an initial move below 3950 to give us our first clue, we may be headed to the 3761-3634 area. This next move down should find support in my anticipated target box. However I am expecting this move down in c of B to be an impulsive 5-wave structure. Depending how we trade today I may add to my -5 Jan EOM 4100 ES Short Call Position. I'll add If we meander up in a very overlapping manner towards the 4030-4048 area. If we impulsively jump into that area, or decline and breach 3950 I will not add. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
1
ES/SPX Short/Put entry Weekly Chart shown and Daily Fed Net liquidity indicator applied. This indicator shows fed inflow/outflow money’s based on their Quantitative tightening and easing (denoted by the green line). As you can see by looking at the circles drawn in, when Net liquidity becomes meaningfully extended above the price action, price eventually makes its way there, and the same goes with when the NL under-extends. Currently SPX is $4009 and its fair value (denoted by the Net liquidity indicator) is $3790 as of 1/16/23. We are clearly down trending as we keep rejecting off the trend line. The play here looks to be an entry around $4050-4100 near the upper region of the trend line and a short all the way down to $3790. This is interesting as it would likely ripple over to $BTC and cause it to also decline. Looking for this to play out around the end of February or early March.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Stellurz
01/16 Weekly Plan. ES Futures March01/16 Weekly Plan. ES Futures March Weekly Pivot is 3,990 Targets 1. 4,021 2. 4,070 3. 4,110 . Targets 1. 3,929 2. 3,890 3. 3,860 . Now trading at 4,016 near Weekly TP1 - Upside You will receive alerts in this channel every time ES hits (2M candle close): 1. Weekly opening 4,020 2. Weekly pivot at 3,990 3. Each weekly target. Side notes: 1. Weekly chart is currently OTFU ends if we break below 3,897 in RTH. Old balance is H3929.75, HB3858, L3788. 2. One time framing up in daily chart ends if 3,865.75 breaks during RTH. 3. When trading of weekly levels, each level will act as support and resistance, “no trade zones” do not apply to weekly plan. 4. We have an open gap zone from 1/10. H3,948, L3,942 Have a great week and trade safe. @everyone
CME_MINI:ES1!
by dhjesus
SPY Swing Long on ReversalSPY dropped to a mid Fib level from the recent pivot high and bounced. Price is now rising in a channel predictive for a 1% rise tomorrow. The ADX indicator shows the negative direction reversed and now positive and rising out of the chop zone confirms the reversal as a solid one not a fake out as does the MACD with a crossover under the histogram I will trade this with strike 392 calls for expiration this Friday expectant for 25+% return in two days
AMEX:SPYLong
by AwesomeAvani
1
Weekend Update: 4048 Next Week, then Down?We spent the last couple days, in my opinion, putting the final touches of this short term bullish celebration. Based on my primary black count we should be entering the dialed in target box for this b of B short term top. After which I have no reason (at this time) to believe we will NOT visit and breach 3788 in the coming weeks. Not much else to share, as of right now, there's a small chance we bounce around in the purple before ultimately coming into the same target box location...however, the negative divergences building are signaling there's not a lot left in the upside for the short term. First clue we may be on our way to visiting 3788 is a breach of 3886. I want to be clear I have a small short position for EOM Jan 4100 strike calls. I may add to that next week. However this move down I am expecting is a move to buy, buy, buy. Hence the reason why my short calls expire end of month. My goal is to place a short 3600 put position in the coming weeks in size with the April expiration date. Have a great weekend. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
4