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ES Looking For Support Near 3920 - Then LIFTOFFPay attention. Today will likely be a large range bar - possibly with a deep low near 3920. My SPY cycle patterns call today a "Major CRUSH". That means we could see a very large price range today. Combined with other SPY Cycle patterns, I believe the ES will attempt to establish a base/bottom - retesting recent lows. As we move into 2023, be aware that cycle trends have shifted. We are entering a Wave-5 bullish price trend. This Wave-5 trend may not result in new all-time highs this year, but we should see a solid recovery/reversion back to the upside. There are still risks related to the global banking/credit system, so stay cautious of crisis events. Follow my research. Pay attention to the clear market data - not the perma-bears that continue to tell you a "major crash" is about to happen. After today, we move into more bullish consolidation as Earnings start to hit.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by BradMatheny
Morning Update: If you're an algorithm, don't read thisBefore I get into my morning market update I would like to address something briefly. I recently did a post called "Has Bitcoin & Ethereum Bottomed?" . There were many comments arguing for or against a bottom being in place based on either the Global Economy, The US Dollar, Inflation...etc. I bring this up mainly for new traders. Here's some questions I want to pose to you. 1. In the history of trading how many economists are known for being legendary traders ? 2. If the US GDP is forecasted to expand by 3-4% this year why is the stock market not higher than last year? 3. Since the dawn of time traders have been told that GOLD is a hedge against inflation so why is gold at $1906 today, which is lower than $1923 where it traded in October of 2011 some 12 years ago when inflation was 2%...not 6%? I could go on and on and literally bore you to death with questions that would boggle your mind...all to make one point. In the grand scheme of trading...none of this matters. Trader sentiment does....that's it. Sentiment is comprised on your perspectives, viewpoints and personal opinions about a security. Put all those traders perspectives, viewpoints and opinions in a pot...stir it up and what do you get? A CHART. Make no mistake, if you're negative on the US Economy and your trading that viewpoint, but the chart is going higher.....YOU'RE LOSING. If you're losing, then the economy doesn't matter. Where Gold is or the Dollar Index doesn't matter....you're now in a fearful mode. Fear and Greed rule trader decisions in the markets. Most traders will NOT be successful because despite access to the best analysis people find it difficult to master one's own emotions . Hence algorithms. Algorithms do not care about the US Dollar. They're impervious to the ravages of inflation, and they have NO EMOTION . The crowd behavior that is encapsulated in a chart....IS ALL YOU NEED TO TRADE IT SUCCESSFULLY. Now, based on the above ES futures chart I believe we have one more high to complete before we can consider this pattern complete. I say that because the A=C point is at 4048. If price does manage to get to that inflection point today I plan to add to my small ES 4100 Jan Call short position. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
12
Evening Update: Today was rather uneventfulIt appears I over estimated the initial spike and the close was not close enough to flat....overall I would say I missed on the details, but I hope you can gather reading the charts prior to news one can get a sense (regardless of the content of the news or event) the outcomes can be predetermined. Really the main thing I want to point out tonight is the negative divergences that has maintained ever since our initial move up last Friday. This tells me this move is slowing in strength and therefore coming to an end. I was in no hurry to open any additional trades today because I still do not have anything decisive to trade against. Even though price has moved against me since I sold my 5 ES 4100 Jan EOM contracts...I'm up almost 20% strictly due to time deterioration. It appears tonight I'll go over 2,000 followers. I thank you all who place some small measure of trust in me. I've learned a lot in the last year...and hopefully I have managed to provide value to your trading. Let's see if this choppy mess comes to in end tomorrow. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
6
SPY Fibonacci & TA. Bullish Target Above $410.For everyone interested: Expect volatility to be king over the next few weeks (earnings and economic data). SPY reaching a major APEX in price trend. It is very likely to resolve to the upside, but that means we have to be prepared for "false breakouts". Fibonacci price trends suggest current trend is BULLISH (closing GAPS). The upper GAP may be the next target on a strong rally phase. Don't play around with this trend. If you are SHORT - PROTECT YOUR CAPITAL. Economic data continues to suggest the US markets will resolve to the upside if inflation trends continue to weaken. Follow my research & videos. I've been trying to warn you about the start of a Wave-5 rally for more than 5+ months.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
Morning Update: Will I be HERO or GOAT?I have no idea where the phrase from "Hero to GOAT" came from. But I know it means... "that by his actions a person has in short order shifted from success to failure, with a concomitant move from praise to blame". Now I used the Google Machine to post that definition so some of you won't confuse GOAT with a Tom Brady reference...."Greatest of all Time". GOAT is this sense is a negative connotation. Also, forgive the use of Hero...its just a saying:)You get my meaning...lol. I've been posting on Trading View now for a year. In that timeframe I have posted almost 600 times about various securities I track. I try to provide my followers and new readers with detailed analysis and context. I am NO HERO...nor do I consider myself a GOAT of any sort. But I do consider myself a student of patterns, trader sentiment, and ultimately Elliott Wave Analysis. On 4 previous occasions I have done these posts I loosely refer to as "thought experiments". These posts are where I detail what will happen in the markets the next day. Usually these posts will revolve around some sort of news or event that may invoke volatility. The entire point of the thought experiments were never to brag. They certainly were not to say I have a higher intellect or the fact that I practice magic, or levitate...lol. They were designed to be thought provoking. Does news or events move price, or are they simply catalysts that fulfill on a pattern that has been in the making prior to the announcement of news or events. I'm in the camp that news or events do not matter. I believe when you consider all the participants in a large market like the SP500, the range of knowledge across the vast amount of participants dictate that good, bad or indifferent news leaks, is known prior, is anticipated or forecasted. These traders show us how prices will react in advance with the patterns of buys and sells on a chart. But I acknowledge is almost an impossible debate to win. Most people see the aftermath of news or events and how price reacts instantaneously and deem it to be cause and affect. It's hard to argue against that when the visual picture countering that argument is so stark. Hence the reason why I put myself out there. This is a topic for traders to continue to debate. Its a valid topic and therefore I expose myself to comments of ridicule if these thought experiments of mine, that I share with you, blow up in my face . I'll let my followers be the final arbiter on whether I am right or wrong...but suffice to say, I'm sure my older followers would agree I'm 4 for 4 so far. #5: My thought experiment for todays trading day I shared the jest of my thought process last night but I can dial it in a little more this morning. As of right now, price is in my target box. Once the CPI report is announced I believe price will spike in the ES. Now...don't freak out ...Price should not spike higher than 4097. That 100 points away from where we are as of the posting of my morning update. 4097 would represent an outlier. I do not place a high probability on that, but these spikes rarely are based on anything else but emotion. Nonetheless, price should not breach 4097. But I would more so expect price to spike to the 4030 to 4050 area. Price will should be around the 4010-4030 when the cash market opens at 930am. Price will stay elevated during the first hour of cash market trading. Price will spend the rest of the day moving down and we stand a decent chance of closing red on the day or in the area of flat. My trade plan for today is to add to a small short ES call position I initiated yesterday afternoon. Ultimately I am looking for price to return to the area of a breach of 3788 in the coming days or weeks...hence my short call trade thesis. I'll update todays price action this evening...and I'll be mentally prepared (with bourbon) to take my medicine in the comments section. Let's see what opportunities today brings us. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
18
SPX Primed For A Powerful Wave 3 Decline - UpdateWith an impulse up formed at close from yesterday's 3877 low, the 3970 high marks the completion of W2 to set up for the bearish W3 breakdown out of this consolidation period. W3 should begin by retracing the majority of the recent rally targeting 3843-3808, for w1 of W3. Ultimately, there is a high probability target range for the W3 decline, which includes the 78.6% retracement from the October 13 low and 90-100% extensions of W1. Those are 3667-3635-3622. A fourth wave rally will follow after W3 is complete to be followed by a fifth to complete (W1).
SP:SPXShort
by TheElliottWaveClub
Evening Update: ES to Spike Higher tomorrow into Target BoxJudging by how we traded all day today I can't say we're done to the upside . I can only assume tomorrow's CPI catalyst will cause prices to spike into the target box. Upon experiencing that spike tomorrow I will soon add to my newly initiated short call position. I believe this spike will last so that the cash market can open at 930am EST . Upon the cash market opening I expect prices to retreat within an hour of opening and continue down the remainder of the day. It is possible we close red tomorrow. * That TE was free of charge:) lol Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
25
Morning Update: To break-out or break-down that is the questionLast night I decided to look at this chart as if I was seeing it for this time. Its funny, but the first impression I got was this is NOT a chart that price is going to run away with bullishly. Many of you have heard me say that with respect to this long drawn out consolidation since the 22nd of December. Problem is we have meandered up the whole time. But this is not new. Ever since we bottomed in October at 3502, we haven't had a decent impulsive wave in the ES. Almost every rally eventually overlapped. We have been in a choppy market ever since. I hope to gain some clarity shortly. On the micro chart above, we have topped in Black "b" or with one more poke into the target box we will top. If we come up short of the target box we still have 1-2 pointing down in the black count. In the purple count we should head lower for our wave 2 of C that is ultimately headed to the 4300 area. So you understand there are many potential outcomes to consider...but in the very short term it appears both counts point lower. If we get a push up to the 3985 to 4000 area, I may take an outright short and close towards the wave 2 target box in purple. If I do this trade I will post a "trade alert". Lets see what clues, or lack of, we get today. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
3
How the ES has reacted to EIA Petroleum Status ReportsEIA Petroleum Status Reports are considered high-impact news, yet how much do they impact ES futures? In the 30 minutes after it gets reported at 10:30am ET, here's how ES has reacted the last 5 times: Jan 4: 14.75-point range, closing up 0.21% after 30 minutes Dec 28: 11.5-point range, closing up 0.25% after 30 minutes Dec 21: 12-point range, closing up 0.12% after 30 minutes Dec 14: 8.75-point range, closing up 0.20% after 30 minutes Dec 7: 13.75-point range, closing up 0.09% after 30 minutes Plenty of range there to make money... and plenty of range to get whipsawed out for a loss. so be careful. Unless you have a specific strategy to trade the EIA Petroleum Status Report news, or you're in for a longer hold, consider sitting it out.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by TradingTruthseeker
Evening Update: Well, that cleared up Nothing Today’s price action did nothing to clear things up or give some sort of advantage to either the Black or Purple counts. If the Black count is going to play out price needs to breach 3850 and then 3788. For purple to play out, price needs above 3974. Until then we chop around with no discernable purpose. Not being a day-trader, I refuse to get caught up in this tug of war. I prefer to be a little more patient. I believe we will have a tradeable trend to rely on shortly. If Black plays out my area of trade interest is approximately 3750, whereas, if purple plays out, my area of trade interest will be 3985-4038. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
5
Morning Update: ES Futures are in No Man's LandWith yesterday's spike and reversal, for this analyst, it continues to complicate things. Yesterday's rally came in the form of a 5 wave structure. For me the question remains a 5-wave structure of what? ( a c-wave to complete black b of B, or a wave-1 of purple C) In the primary black count, we came up short of a standard retracement by just 10 points. But those 10 points became a potential big clue when price reversed. Follow along with me...In the main chart our bounce off of 3502 to our A-wave high took 2 months to complete. I was looking for a B wave to complete in roughly the same timeframe. I was not looking for it to complete in 3 weeks. Therefore I have added a purple count that reflects B having completed at 3788 and forming a leading diagonal for 1 of c to start off our c-wave higher. If price comes down but does not breach the 3850 level and then impulsively takes out yesterday's high of 3974, then there's a high probability we're headed to the 4300 area for our primary b-wave. As of now, I have not abandoned my primary black B count. In the black primary count we topped in b of B yesterday and should be headed down to 3700-3600 area. AS OF THIS MORNING, I HAVE NO PROBABLE DISTINCTION BETWEEN BLACK AND PURPLE. In my opinion we're in no mans land until we breakdown below 3850 and then immediately breach 3788...Or we trade above yesterdays high 3974. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
Morning Update: ES Futures Remain Deadlocked in a ZoneEach time I look for ES Futures to reconcile lower, we move to the high end of the range we have been deadlocked in since 3rd week of December. Suffice to say we have no reconciliation up or down despite the 2-3% rally on Friday. I maintain my perspective that this long drawn out overlapping pattern will reconcile itself lower. But I am not interested in moving back to the low end of the consolidation area. I need to see a breach of 3788. To the degree we do not breach 3788 and eventually move impulsively higher ( which is not my primary expectation ) I may be forced to consider the larger B wave concluded at 3788 and we're now on our way to 4300. That would make this consolidation area a leading diagonal to start the trend higher in a C wave. The main reason I do not believe this to be the case is the cash index tagged the 1.0 Fib Extension and where A=C. As you can see from the below we do not have such a drawn out overlapping pattern. We have what appears to be a clean ABC and right into the 1.0. Granted, we could break out and continue higher...but I'm having a hard time seeing that happen right now. Lets see what clues todays session brings us. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
1
SPX Primed For A Powerful Wave 3 Decline Next WeekSPX completed a double zigzag correction originating from the December 22 low terminating at Friday's 3906 high. That 3906 high marks the completion of W2 to set up the bearish W3 breakdown out of this consolidation period. Below 3852 will greatly increase confidence that the W2 high will hold to immediately target 3819-3795, initially. Ultimately, there is a high probability target range for the W3 decline, which includes the 78.6% retracement from the October 13 low and 90-100% extensions of W1. Those are 3622-3604-3570, respectively. A fourth wave rally will follow after W3 is complete to be followed by a fifth to complete (W1).
SP:SPXShort
by TheElliottWaveClub
1
SP500 headed higherSP500 appears to be headed higher. The most widely used indicators MACD, RSI and 5/20 EMA are showing bullish. Most important is the RSI, a bullish signal formed when the RSI stayed within a tight range below the 50 than retraced above the 50 level. Same time the MACD signal went positive Breakout of range Above anchored VWAP from the low RSI above 50 Anyone's guess how much higher it can go, but with current analysis, I see the previous highly range being tested.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by RKchartest
Weekend Update: ES Rallies furthering the pattern complexity ES Futures have been in a tight range since Thursday December 22nd of last year when it completed its initial a-wave down from the 4180 high. The overlapping price action has given me a fit to count. What started out as an expectation of a standard retracement in b of B, eventually turned into the expectation of a triangle, which is now as best as I can ascertain, a triple zig zag. Although the above pattern featured below in the micro chart is very similar to a diagonal, it cannot be one , because diagonals are motive waves. Motive waves are trend directional in nature, and this pattern still appears corrective. At the start of Friday’s trading day, I was expecting lower, but knew I was not going to be putting on a trade that day. As my longer-term followers are used to hearing from me price has to come to me when putting on a trade. It is only when price is coming to me that I know I’m dialed into where the Elliott wave analysis is forecasting. Therefore, I have the largest chance of making a profit. So, my plan is to continue to wait until this consolidation is clearly over. With respect to the current pattern, there’s only so many interpretations that can be made. Being a B-wave, it is expected to potentially become complex and it is this complexity that has me pulling me back from trading. As of right now I have 3 waves up that appear impulsive in nature. 3938.25 is the 1.0 extension and I would expect some sort of reaction at that level. To conclude there would make sense of this whole mess. Whether this pattern completes there or not is yet to be determined. However, I stand by previous assertions that the consolidation pattern we have been experiencing for the last almost 2 weeks in not a terribly bullish pattern. Aside from all the rallies and declines within the last 2 weeks...price has not moved much at all. The standard retracement area for this b-wave originally was as high as 3985-4030. I stopped looking for price to reach those levels due to the overlap. I remain of the same opinion while writing my weekend update...but I will also remain open minded until I get clarity in the pattern. In conclusion, let's see if price can muster the strength to get to 3938.25 and the reaction afterwards. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
3