ES1! Key Supply and DemandLevelsES1! 65 minute Supply and Demand Key Levels into potential binary economic events today and at EOW// Price at time of publish: 3896.75
ES
Morning Update: ES Futures are in No Man's LandWith yesterday's spike and reversal, for this analyst, it continues to complicate things. Yesterday's rally came in the form of a 5 wave structure. For me the question remains a 5-wave structure of what? ( a c-wave to complete black b of B, or a wave-1 of purple C) In the primary black count, we came up short of a standard retracement by just 10 points.
But those 10 points became a potential big clue when price reversed. Follow along with me...In the main chart our bounce off of 3502 to our A-wave high took 2 months to complete. I was looking for a B wave to complete in roughly the same timeframe. I was not looking for it to complete in 3 weeks. Therefore I have added a purple count that reflects B having completed at 3788 and forming a leading diagonal for 1 of c to start off our c-wave higher. If price comes down but does not breach the 3850 level and then impulsively takes out yesterday's high of 3974, then there's a high probability we're headed to the 4300 area for our primary b-wave.
As of now, I have not abandoned my primary black B count. In the black primary count we topped in b of B yesterday and should be headed down to 3700-3600 area. AS OF THIS MORNING, I HAVE NO PROBABLE DISTINCTION BETWEEN BLACK AND PURPLE.
In my opinion we're in no mans land until we breakdown below 3850 and then immediately breach 3788...Or we trade above yesterdays high 3974.
Best to all,
Chris
I think this roadmap is doable for ES & SPX - Seasonality WorksUp for a measured move in the channel to 4400's until Feb 22nd ish, Down to retest the channel and bottom around March 10th. Up until May 10th ish, bottom in June 1st for a great buy.
Special Update: ES Standard Retrace Appears to be the makingI am not going to argue with price, but the long drawn out consolidation was very unusual to turn into an ABC zig zag. But that appears to be what is unfolding. 3985 - 4030 area is where price ideally would conclude.
Best to all,
Chris
Morning Update: ES Futures Remain Deadlocked in a ZoneEach time I look for ES Futures to reconcile lower, we move to the high end of the range we have been deadlocked in since 3rd week of December. Suffice to say we have no reconciliation up or down despite the 2-3% rally on Friday. I maintain my perspective that this long drawn out overlapping pattern will reconcile itself lower. But I am not interested in moving back to the low end of the consolidation area.
I need to see a breach of 3788.
To the degree we do not breach 3788 and eventually move impulsively higher ( which is not my primary expectation ) I may be forced to consider the larger B wave concluded at 3788 and we're now on our way to 4300. That would make this consolidation area a leading diagonal to start the trend higher in a C wave.
The main reason I do not believe this to be the case is the cash index tagged the 1.0 Fib Extension and where A=C. As you can see from the below we do not have such a drawn out overlapping pattern. We have what appears to be a clean ABC and right into the 1.0. Granted, we could break out and continue higher...but I'm having a hard time seeing that happen right now.
Lets see what clues todays session brings us.
Best to all,
Chris
SPX Primed For A Powerful Wave 3 Decline Next WeekSPX completed a double zigzag correction originating from the December 22 low terminating at Friday's 3906 high.
That 3906 high marks the completion of W2 to set up the bearish W3 breakdown out of this consolidation period.
Below 3852 will greatly increase confidence that the W2 high will hold to immediately target 3819-3795, initially.
Ultimately, there is a high probability target range for the W3 decline, which includes the 78.6% retracement from the October 13 low and 90-100% extensions of W1. Those are 3622-3604-3570, respectively.
A fourth wave rally will follow after W3 is complete to be followed by a fifth to complete (W1).
SP500 headed higherSP500 appears to be headed higher. The most widely used indicators MACD, RSI and 5/20 EMA are showing bullish. Most important is the RSI, a bullish signal formed when the RSI stayed within a tight range below the 50 than retraced above the 50 level.
Same time the MACD signal went positive
Breakout of range
Above anchored VWAP from the low
RSI above 50
Anyone's guess how much higher it can go, but with current analysis, I see the previous highly range being tested.
Weekend Update: ES Rallies furthering the pattern complexity ES Futures have been in a tight range since Thursday December 22nd of last year when it completed its initial a-wave down from the 4180 high. The overlapping price action has given me a fit to count. What started out as an expectation of a standard retracement in b of B, eventually turned into the expectation of a triangle, which is now as best as I can ascertain, a triple zig zag.
Although the above pattern featured below in the micro chart is very similar to a diagonal, it cannot be one , because diagonals are motive waves.
Motive waves are trend directional in nature, and this pattern still appears corrective. At the start of Friday’s trading day, I was expecting lower, but knew I was not going to be putting on a trade that day. As my longer-term followers are used to hearing from me price has to come to me when putting on a trade. It is only when price is coming to me that I know I’m dialed into where the Elliott wave analysis is forecasting. Therefore, I have the largest chance of making a profit.
So, my plan is to continue to wait until this consolidation is clearly over.
With respect to the current pattern, there’s only so many interpretations that can be made. Being a B-wave, it is expected to potentially become complex and it is this complexity that has me pulling me back from trading. As of right now I have 3 waves up that appear impulsive in nature. 3938.25 is the 1.0 extension and I would expect some sort of reaction at that level. To conclude there would make sense of this whole mess. Whether this pattern completes there or not is yet to be determined. However, I stand by previous assertions that the consolidation pattern we have been experiencing for the last almost 2 weeks in not a terribly bullish pattern. Aside from all the rallies and declines within the last 2 weeks...price has not moved much at all.
The standard retracement area for this b-wave originally was as high as 3985-4030. I stopped looking for price to reach those levels due to the overlap. I remain of the same opinion while writing my weekend update...but I will also remain open minded until I get clarity in the pattern.
In conclusion, let's see if price can muster the strength to get to 3938.25 and the reaction afterwards.
Best to all,
Chris
Spy within short entry areaNow seems like a good entry for short. I think 390 is the target they are shooting for before making a move down due to it being a key price area it either rejects from or rallies from. I am leaning more towards bearish due to it price being below the box to start and with a stop loss in mind - just above the the red box for a new low as of recent price action ~ below 374.77.
Bears Still on the Field - SPX futuresThe idea from yesterday is not working as I thought so I had to reevaluate what I'm seeing this morning. The general bias is still down - under the 18ma on daily and weekly, embedded bearish slow stochastic, put call ratios back to normal levels again, and more....
If we move quickly downward, there is daily BB support near 3740 on ES. That should at least pause the market but it's no guarantee that a rally would come from that support. If we are starting a C wave down all bounces will be minimal at best.
Another option is we rally hard after the NFP to the daily 18ma at 3880 area - possible for sure but unless they can hold above the 18ma by close it will be just a bull trap.
I believe many are thinking a bounce and then lower which is why I'm not so sure about a bounce at this time. A sell down with no bounce would catch the majority of longs off guard and keep short sellers from getting into a good position to sell.
Please be careful and as always - good luck!
Morning Update: Looking for price to reconcile lowerThis B-wave cannot complete fast enough for this trader. From the mid-December spike into 4180 to our recent consolidation, this retracement downwards has not been easy. It's January 6th, and I have yet to do my first ES trade of 2023. I'm hoping that is about to change in the next several sessions. I am looking to short puts within the April expiration date. I am unsure the strike but looking at 3400-3600 area. I have made no determinations yet because based on my analysis we need a c-wave lower. My plan is to track this c-wave to the point I can zero in on a conclusion area.
...until that happens I will not be putting a trade.
Some traders must be involved in the market everyday, throughout every machination...I can not relate to that type of trader. I am not testing theories when I trade, I am not gambling when I trade... I trade for profit . That means the end result must be more than when I started.
Today I am expecting our c-wave to get underway in earnest. Suffice to say, regardless of what the market does.... TODAY IS NOT A DAY FOR TRADING FOR ME.
#themarketneverbottomsonafriday
Best to all,
Chris
SPX - B is starting to look like a triangle So a follow up to my previous post because they are not breaking this market down as hard today as I suspected. Very possibly B continues sideways into CPI tomorrow and we rally into the end of today. A false breakdown on CPI (the final e wave) would give then get us the move up, how far is uncertain for it should take a few days at least. C target may even get to the edge of the pitchfork - much higher than most would expect.
I'm thinking this because the rsi on smaller time frames is showing hidden bullish divergence and we are at pitchfork fib support on both SPY and QQQ. Please be cautious!
I'll update later today after market close
Evening Update: Revised b-Wave Count CompletedAfter spending much of today looking at the pattern I have revised this larger b-wave retracement to be a w,x (a,b,c,d,e Triangle) for y of b. As I have stated previously b-waves and 4th waves are where our most complex Elliott Wave patterns appear. The above count is really the only way to count this consolidation and it works perfectly within the guidelines of the use of a wxy pattern.
If this is correct, we have already started our decline lower in a "c of b". I only have 3 micro waves down so far so whether this is an "abc" or an impulsive 5-wave c-wave down is yet to be determined. What is for sure (if my count is correct) we're headed lower into the 3700-3600 area.
I'll update again in the morning.
Best to all,
Chris
Morning Update: Path of Least Resistance is Up? But by how much?Tight consolidation patterns are akin to a poker player with no “Tells”, who displays a stoic face, and keeps the playing cards close to his vest. Many times, these patterns can be difficult to interpret and only reveal what they are immediately prior to concluding. When I find myself in a position where the market fits this poker analogy description I get into all the time-frame duration charts. Starting at the daily and concluding in the smaller time frame fractals. I take on the role as an investigator.
Follow along with me while to go through that exercise.
In the above daily futures chart, the first observation I make is the daily MACD has reset itself. Therefore, the intermediate term momentum is uncommitted, and not leaning in one direction or the other. I determine the daily chart is not going to give me many clues in determining how this tight consolidation reconciles itself.... so I move on .
The above 4-hour chart also has no MACD clues, but now I can see the consolidation more clearly. The overlap is very prevalent. On each occasion price has managed to rally, the corresponding retracement has been deep. This consolidation pattern could be a flat or become impulsive. But what I am seeing in the 4 hour chart is this pattern is mature to the point that whatever it will conclude as, it needs to happen soon.
In the micro chart I get to see the detail of the overlapping price action. The pattern does not appear to be imminently bullish. I am expecting a final c-wave higher and since an impulsive pattern higher has not invalidated ( below 3815 invalidates any impulsive pattern higher ) we still have a chance to shoot higher into the 3985-4031 area. However, the time to do that is running out. I believe in today's session we will have enough price action to complete this consolidation pattern and provide us with it’s final clues as to what it is ...an ABC flat that reconciles in the 3917 area, or a more standard ABC retracement that could reach as high as 4,031.
Based on the amount of the pattern I have to observe, I believe the FLAT is most probable. In either case I believe we will get our answer today.
Best to all,
Chris
ES EZ SHORTSES/SPY/SPX is currently in a consolidation pattern. The S&P tends to make a big move out of these consolidation patterns once they are given time to play-out. NOTE that these consolidation patterns CAN breakout in any direction AND/OR fake-out in either direction but, observing the weekly price action, Im banking on this pattern being bearish along with the fact that this stock is currently in a overall downtrend. I see the ES' falling to 3745 in less than 2 weeks.
Evening Update: Upside Chance is WitheringToday we had no resolution outside of the consolidation area. Giving price the benefit of the doubt till tomorrow to at least tag 3917 for a minimum completion b of B.
As you can see from the above micro I'm still counting this is as it will become impulsive tomorrow. Nonetheless, if all we get is a spike into 3917 and a reversal lower, this could get ugly.
Right now I'm flat and have no positions.
Best to all,
Chris
Morning Update: SPX Futures struggling for Direction2023 is getting off to an unremarkable start.
This overlapping pattern that is consolidating near recent lows tells me my analysis of a standard b of B retracement may be in jeopardy . As I have stated in the past, B-waves, much like 4th-waves can be complex. These are areas within both motive and corrective waves where traders are carving out counter trend patterns. This low level consolidation in the ES could be signaling that price has no intention of following an ideal pathway.
The longer we consolidate down here, the less likely we will retrace to an ideal area of 3985-4000. I'll repeat for the both the benefit of my long-term followers, and or, casual readers of my work, I spend 90% of my time analyzing charts and 10% of the time trading that analysis. B-waves and 4th waves are never areas that peak my trading interest. These are areas of high trader indecision.
The below micro is a last ditch count to apply to a standard retracement, failure to get above the 3900 area soon, will throw me into the camp of an ABC Flat with the potential for immediate reconciliation lower. The problem is that reconciliation points us to as low as sub 3600 if our A-wave is to equal of C-wave. A=C is always the 1.0 Fibonacci extension and the most common and basic target area of any pattern. Only Flats complete less than the 1.0 extension area.
So we wait (and not trade) to see if price will decide to breakout higher today, or continue to stay range bound today...whereas if that is today's result...increases our odds of a B-Wave flat and reconciliation lower should follow.
Best to all,
Chris
SPX Forecast thru Feb using B WAVE''s ALGOB Wave's New Algo is nearly complete and de-bugged. It kicked this chart out for ES Mini Futures thru mid Feb. I would question any chart that doesn't closely resemble this.
Evening Update: Loss of impulsivityThis morning I posted a micro chart of the ES.
Suffice to say...the market had other plans. I still do not see where this patterns reconciles immediately lower. Still looking for the same targets for my larger "b" wave. However, below 3793 and I have no choice but to count this entire consolidation as a B-wave flat. I do not like that count because a b-wave flat points us down to 3540-3550 for A=C. Additionally, it revives the Red Count down as well. Therefore I have changed my immediate impulsive count for c of b to reflect a more sub-divided zig zag.
Targets up remain unchanged (minimum 3917-3920, and preferably as high as 3985-4000) unless we breach 3793.
Best to all,
Chris
HNY and the ES overnight look - SPX500Happy New Year to all! So with the new year we have a more complex correction structure. The "bear pennant" is now broken to the upside but with no follow through on two attempts. On ES they touched the daily 18ma overnight and retreated. Also we are at a fib line of the pitchfork and a structural trendline which seems to be holding price back (blue line). I still expect a flush down to at least 3750 before a larger rally but if they can hold over these resistance points and especially hold over 3925 on an hourly close, it will look more bullish.
SPY Cycle Patterns For 2023Here we go. Starting out 2023, my SPY cycle patterns show a solid RALLY phase sets up on Wednesday/Thursday.
Time to get ready for a strong reflation trade to start 2023. Possibly breaking above resistance channels and rallying to NEW ALL-TIME HIGHS.
Follow my research.
Morning Update: Triangle Invalidated for standard ABCIn my weekend update I wrote, "As you can see our c-wave breached the .618, but only slightly. It is possible the e-wave may do the same. I mention constantly about being attentive for clues that price gives us. This poke above the .618 could be a clue that this will be a standard a-b-c ...or it’s nothing and we decline right out of the gates on the first trading day of the year. However, any trade above 3883 and the purple count will prevail as primary."
With the price action in the overnights we invalidated our triangle pattern and look for price to get above the 3920 area minimum, and ideally to the 3985 -4000 area.
Price is always willing to give us clues to test if we are paying attention. Let's see what clues we get today and I'll update this evening.
Best to all,
Chris
S&P New year Bullish ideaMonthly likely to seek Buy side liquidity first before anything bearish unfolding. The RRR shown defines the monthly buy entry level. I can be early but I do not care because we are just entering the new year.
I would like to see LTF Daily start showing bullishness and then use the daily Order Blocks as buying opportunities. That would be the best scenario I am anticipating.
If I see price unfolding that way, should price go below a Daily OB because of High Impact News or consolidations happening, I will treat that as short term run on sell stops to discourage early buyers.
This is only Paper trading. Going into this new year 2023, I am looking forward to taking more swing trades as I believe 2022 I was able to work on my patience and discipline.
