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Morning Update: Looking for price to reconcile lowerThis B-wave cannot complete fast enough for this trader. From the mid-December spike into 4180 to our recent consolidation, this retracement downwards has not been easy. It's January 6th, and I have yet to do my first ES trade of 2023. I'm hoping that is about to change in the next several sessions. I am looking to short puts within the April expiration date. I am unsure the strike but looking at 3400-3600 area. I have made no determinations yet because based on my analysis we need a c-wave lower. My plan is to track this c-wave to the point I can zero in on a conclusion area. ...until that happens I will not be putting a trade. Some traders must be involved in the market everyday, throughout every machination...I can not relate to that type of trader. I am not testing theories when I trade, I am not gambling when I trade... I trade for profit . That means the end result must be more than when I started. Today I am expecting our c-wave to get underway in earnest. Suffice to say, regardless of what the market does.... TODAY IS NOT A DAY FOR TRADING FOR ME. #themarketneverbottomsonafriday Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
3
SPX - B is starting to look like a triangle So a follow up to my previous post because they are not breaking this market down as hard today as I suspected. Very possibly B continues sideways into CPI tomorrow and we rally into the end of today. A false breakdown on CPI (the final e wave) would give then get us the move up, how far is uncertain for it should take a few days at least. C target may even get to the edge of the pitchfork - much higher than most would expect. I'm thinking this because the rsi on smaller time frames is showing hidden bullish divergence and we are at pitchfork fib support on both SPY and QQQ. Please be cautious! I'll update later today after market close
CME_MINI:ES1!
by the_sunship
13
Evening Update: Revised b-Wave Count CompletedAfter spending much of today looking at the pattern I have revised this larger b-wave retracement to be a w,x (a,b,c,d,e Triangle) for y of b. As I have stated previously b-waves and 4th waves are where our most complex Elliott Wave patterns appear. The above count is really the only way to count this consolidation and it works perfectly within the guidelines of the use of a wxy pattern. If this is correct, we have already started our decline lower in a "c of b". I only have 3 micro waves down so far so whether this is an "abc" or an impulsive 5-wave c-wave down is yet to be determined. What is for sure (if my count is correct) we're headed lower into the 3700-3600 area. I'll update again in the morning. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
3
Morning Update: Path of Least Resistance is Up? But by how much?Tight consolidation patterns are akin to a poker player with no “Tells”, who displays a stoic face, and keeps the playing cards close to his vest. Many times, these patterns can be difficult to interpret and only reveal what they are immediately prior to concluding. When I find myself in a position where the market fits this poker analogy description I get into all the time-frame duration charts. Starting at the daily and concluding in the smaller time frame fractals. I take on the role as an investigator. Follow along with me while to go through that exercise. In the above daily futures chart, the first observation I make is the daily MACD has reset itself. Therefore, the intermediate term momentum is uncommitted, and not leaning in one direction or the other. I determine the daily chart is not going to give me many clues in determining how this tight consolidation reconciles itself.... so I move on . The above 4-hour chart also has no MACD clues, but now I can see the consolidation more clearly. The overlap is very prevalent. On each occasion price has managed to rally, the corresponding retracement has been deep. This consolidation pattern could be a flat or become impulsive. But what I am seeing in the 4 hour chart is this pattern is mature to the point that whatever it will conclude as, it needs to happen soon. In the micro chart I get to see the detail of the overlapping price action. The pattern does not appear to be imminently bullish. I am expecting a final c-wave higher and since an impulsive pattern higher has not invalidated ( below 3815 invalidates any impulsive pattern higher ) we still have a chance to shoot higher into the 3985-4031 area. However, the time to do that is running out. I believe in today's session we will have enough price action to complete this consolidation pattern and provide us with it’s final clues as to what it is ...an ABC flat that reconciles in the 3917 area, or a more standard ABC retracement that could reach as high as 4,031. Based on the amount of the pattern I have to observe, I believe the FLAT is most probable. In either case I believe we will get our answer today. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
8
Morning Update: SPX Futures struggling for Direction2023 is getting off to an unremarkable start. This overlapping pattern that is consolidating near recent lows tells me my analysis of a standard b of B retracement may be in jeopardy . As I have stated in the past, B-waves, much like 4th-waves can be complex. These are areas within both motive and corrective waves where traders are carving out counter trend patterns. This low level consolidation in the ES could be signaling that price has no intention of following an ideal pathway. The longer we consolidate down here, the less likely we will retrace to an ideal area of 3985-4000. I'll repeat for the both the benefit of my long-term followers, and or, casual readers of my work, I spend 90% of my time analyzing charts and 10% of the time trading that analysis. B-waves and 4th waves are never areas that peak my trading interest. These are areas of high trader indecision. The below micro is a last ditch count to apply to a standard retracement, failure to get above the 3900 area soon, will throw me into the camp of an ABC Flat with the potential for immediate reconciliation lower. The problem is that reconciliation points us to as low as sub 3600 if our A-wave is to equal of C-wave. A=C is always the 1.0 Fibonacci extension and the most common and basic target area of any pattern. Only Flats complete less than the 1.0 extension area. So we wait (and not trade) to see if price will decide to breakout higher today, or continue to stay range bound today...whereas if that is today's result...increases our odds of a B-Wave flat and reconciliation lower should follow. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
Evening Update: Loss of impulsivityThis morning I posted a micro chart of the ES. Suffice to say...the market had other plans. I still do not see where this patterns reconciles immediately lower. Still looking for the same targets for my larger "b" wave. However, below 3793 and I have no choice but to count this entire consolidation as a B-wave flat. I do not like that count because a b-wave flat points us down to 3540-3550 for A=C. Additionally, it revives the Red Count down as well. Therefore I have changed my immediate impulsive count for c of b to reflect a more sub-divided zig zag. Targets up remain unchanged (minimum 3917-3920, and preferably as high as 3985-4000) unless we breach 3793. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
2
HNY and the ES overnight look - SPX500Happy New Year to all! So with the new year we have a more complex correction structure. The "bear pennant" is now broken to the upside but with no follow through on two attempts. On ES they touched the daily 18ma overnight and retreated. Also we are at a fib line of the pitchfork and a structural trendline which seems to be holding price back (blue line). I still expect a flush down to at least 3750 before a larger rally but if they can hold over these resistance points and especially hold over 3925 on an hourly close, it will look more bullish.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by the_sunship
4
Morning Update: Triangle Invalidated for standard ABCIn my weekend update I wrote, "As you can see our c-wave breached the .618, but only slightly. It is possible the e-wave may do the same. I mention constantly about being attentive for clues that price gives us. This poke above the .618 could be a clue that this will be a standard a-b-c ...or it’s nothing and we decline right out of the gates on the first trading day of the year. However, any trade above 3883 and the purple count will prevail as primary." With the price action in the overnights we invalidated our triangle pattern and look for price to get above the 3920 area minimum, and ideally to the 3985 -4000 area. Price is always willing to give us clues to test if we are paying attention. Let's see what clues we get today and I'll update this evening. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
5
S&P New year Bullish ideaMonthly likely to seek Buy side liquidity first before anything bearish unfolding. The RRR shown defines the monthly buy entry level. I can be early but I do not care because we are just entering the new year. I would like to see LTF Daily start showing bullishness and then use the daily Order Blocks as buying opportunities. That would be the best scenario I am anticipating. If I see price unfolding that way, should price go below a Daily OB because of High Impact News or consolidations happening, I will treat that as short term run on sell stops to discourage early buyers. This is only Paper trading. Going into this new year 2023, I am looking forward to taking more swing trades as I believe 2022 I was able to work on my patience and discipline.
SP:SPXLong
by joruesteve007
3
Weekend Update: Triangle Completed in the ES...now down? Happy New Year’s Eve to all! I wanted to get out my weekend update before tonight’s festivities begin. I wish safety and a great time for all reading this post. Let’s jump in. I'll start with the long-term view. As I am forecasting the first half of 2023 being comprised of prices moving higher. As this pattern matures I'll update it and trades will present themselves. For sake of trading for profit...I want to focus on what's directly in front of us....UPSIDE. Drilling down you can see from the below chart we’re completing or have completed our e-wave in what I’m counting as a triangle for wave b of B. On the micro chart below, you’ll see I've annotated the e-wave as being complete or with a slight poke higher being completed. My only concern (not a big concern) about the triangle count is once the a and b-waves are in place the c and e-waves should conclude in the area of .618 of the preceding wave. As you can see our c-wave breached the .618, but only slightly. It is possible the e-wave may do the same. I mention constantly about being attentive for clues that price gives us. This poke above the .618 could be a clue that this will be a standard a-b-c...or it’s nothing and we decline right out of the gates on the first trading day of the year. However, any trade above 3883 and the purple count will prevail as primary. That pathway is shown above. Truth is I would like to get a standard a-b-c as because it makes for a better pattern and is easier to forecast. But we don’t get to decide what patterns we can trade...we take what price provides. Bigger picture I am expecting some downside in our larger Black B-wave....after which the long side should be a great trade. I mentioned I will be eyeing some short puts. DOES ANYONE REMEMBER THE POST I PUT OUT SEVERAL MONTHS AGO...”80% TRADE BY MAY”? As my longer-term followers are aware, the 3502 bottom back in October was done in a non-discernable wave structure. The spike down and up never revealed a clear wave 4 and 5. Since then I have been dubious of that low. Suffice to say, I was never able to do the 80% trade by May because I waited for what should’ve happened, and that was a wave 4 consolidation and a wave 5 down on positive divergence. However, given where we are now in the price pattern now...this expected move lower should clear things up and pave the way for at least 2-6 months of upside. Here’s the trade I am eyeing. Provided we get a decline into my expected target area of 3761-3647 I hope to sell as much as 20 ES contracts with a strike of 3600 in tranches. I am choosing the month of April due to its seasonal strength. Since this is a put option it's bullish posture and April is usually a seasonally bullish month. I will update as we get closer in obtaining my forecasted price targets on the downside. If you’re interested in following, please read the previous posts (links above) as there are qualifying factors to go through to be approved for Futures options in the US. If you are not in a position to participate, it is possible that much of the basket of risk assets will appreciate in value as I am forecasting the US markets to be up as much as 20% in the coming months. Regardless of what happens in the US Markets in 2023. If you have the ability to trade both sides...we should have a great year as it pertains to trading for profit. 20% moves in a calendar year are to be capitalized on. Agreed? Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
23
Morning Update: Santa is UNACCOUNTED FORIn this last week of trading in 2022 it appears many traders are finding coal in their stockings as the Santa Rally phenomenon is not materializing. Ideally I would like to see a rally into b of B target box above 3917. However, it is possible this b wave is not structuring itself ideally and may be a triangle as outlined below. If this is the case, then we will continue to bounce around here while consolidating...only to push lower next week in our c of B into the 3761-3647 area. If this is the case, we should finish off B and embark on a rally to the 4300 area. This will be an epic rally that has much meat on the bone for traders. I am expecting this rally to have markets up 20% from now before we top sometime early 2023. Trade Alert: For those who sell premium (like me), I'm eyeing short puts upon the conclusion of our larger B wave bottom. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
4
Global Markets Are Setting Up A MAJOR BOTTOM For 2023+US/Global markets are actively seeking a bottom at this point. We've witnessed the largest unwinding of global excesses since the DOT COM bubble and, before that, the 1929 market peak. Use this symbol to experiment with market trends/setups: (TSLA + ARKK + ARKW + ARKQ + GME ) / 5 In my opinion, the deep selling is nearly over. This chart shows the custom symbol is very close to the center level on the historical Pitchfork and very close to a 1.0 (100%) Fibonacci extension from 2016 to 2019. I suspect the unwinding of the global markets is very close to a BOTTOM right now. 2023 could be very explosive, considering the extreme downside pressure we've seen over the past 15+ months. Think about this for a few minutes... _This chart shows price is currently AT or BELOW 2016~2018 center Std Dev levels. It may move a bit lower before actually finding a bottom. _This price level represents a pre-2019 earnings/revenue expectation (ignoring the past four years of progress). _The US Fed has already disrupted inflation trends and will likely shift towards more moderate policies in H1:2023. _This was not an excess bubble as much as it was a speculative bubble during the COVID supply disruption. Now, we shift back to more normal Revenue/Growth expectations. The US/Global markets are actively seeking a bottom RIGHT NOW. The reversion/reflation trade (bullish) could be very powerful. ---- ------------------------------------------------ Precious Metals will continue to appreciate - just like what happened in 2002~2005+. We are in the early stages of a reflation cycle (post COVID speculative bubble). The bubble has burst. Prices have deflated. A reflation rally is very likely unless some global crisis event disrupts the global economy. Gold and Silver will likely rally 35% to 55% higher over the next 2+ years (possibly higher). This is just like 2002~2005 all over again. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I believe it is time to start initiating "TOKEN" positions in deeply undervalued Technology, Energy, Consumer Staples, Healthcare, and other "relation" sectors. Follow my research.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by BradMatheny
2
LIGHT BULB will eventually CLICK ES/SPX/SPYTrade Plan this Week Pivot is 3875. Big levels above are 3915 / 3960 / 3990 / 4000 / 4050. Big levels below are 3832 / 3800 / 3777 / 3750 / 3712. Market Structure Short Term Trend. Spooz remains in a downtrend until we can get back above that 3915, which would be the first goal for bulls as it would put them back in firm control. The Profiles. What the market has been communicating to us this past week is profit taking by shorts producing a relief bounce. We know this from the shape of the daily volume/market profile(s), as there were a few P-shaped profiles. Additionally, a pattern that has been developing has been poor lows, a sign of sellers selling into the hole without getting paid and effectively getting trapped, causing reversals. As is typically the case with short covering bounces, they get sold eventually. However, we need to remain nimble and aware that price can continue to move higher as long as there are new buyers. 3875 was a pretty key level last week, it has stalled the auction a few times, and I think there may be further pain for shorts as long as we remain above it. This will be our pivot this week. 3920 has unfinished auction, and downside was limited below 3800. Given our pivot is 3875, bulls want above, bears want below. Above 3875 and I will be long biased, targeting 3894 and 3915. Breaking above and holding 3915 would be best case scenario for bulls, targeting 3960 and 3990 / 4000. Holding below 3875 would indicate weakness IMO, and targets in this case are 3832 and 3800. Break and hold below 3800 will target our 3777 and 3750 levels. Inside Day. For Tuesday, we have an inside day set up which we want to be on the lookout for. The HOD was 3872, thus breaking above and holding we want to be bullish playing with further squeezing of shorts. The LOD being 3822, breaking below and holding we want to be bearish playing with the inside day break to the downside. Trade Plan Tuesday Pivot is 3875. Bulls targeting 3894. Break and hold above targets 3915 / 3937 / 3950. Bears targeting 3855. Break and hold below targets 3832 / 3818 / 3800. Stay Frosty!
SP:SPX
by Beyond_Charts
SPY - the alternative countThis is a video walk through of the SPY considering this count as a larger ABC move instead of an impulse with a bounce coming next. I do feel this count is a strong possibility but it will be wrong over 383 or more conservatively, over 387. Very few people think we can have a melt down over the holidays, and very few are thinking this is a possibility, which is why I'm bringing it up. If I'm wrong I will update this chart, but If I'm right I will be updating the futures chart at I hope it's helpful. Good luck and Merry Christmas!
AMEX:SPYShort
by the_sunship
8
SPX small relief rally then lowerThis is the futures chart. I'm using it because it lines up well with the pitchfork fibs. Overall, it still looks like we need to complete the 4th wave today (maybe into tomorrow) before the final wave down. Keep in mind the 100ma is my target but we may fall short as the weekly 18 is at 3874 currently. Many are expecting a bounce to 3900 at least, and then a sell into the abyss. This is why having the minor bounce and then a 5th wave down, and then a bigger rally in early January makes sense to me. Daily Chart with potential MA targets if they can get above 3900
CME_MINI:ES1!
by the_sunship
17
Morning Update: Minor b of larger B underway It appears we’re in our minor b and it’s possible the a-wave of that b just completed at 3895. B waves not unlike 4th waves, are Wiley . All the complex patterns appear in B and 4th waves. We use Fibonacci to guide us as to where we are in these unique areas of price patterns...but we have to be prepared for almost anything. If in fact our (a) of b just completed, we should expect price to consolidate in this area with an upward bias before resuming a c-wave of b lower into the mid to low 3800 region. See micro count below. The above micro chart should give some guidance as to my expectations over the course of the next week. This morning’s post is my last update of 2022. I have truly enjoyed getting to know many of you here at TradingView.com this year. Hopefully 2022 was a great year of trading profits for you. This is a job, a love, a passion. It is NOT easy...anyone who says different is not a serious trader...and if you’re not a serious person in the market, chances are you’re losing your hard-earned wealth to those of us who are. I enter the holiday season flat, having done my last trades yesterday. I’m now mentally free to enjoy my family, recharge, and fall back in love with this job come the new year. I encourage you to do the same. I hope next year to teach, mentor and further the trading relationship with some of you. Happy Holidays to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
20
SPX - Limited Upside LikelyThere's a ton of bears out there. There's no doubt about that. I am focusing on the structure here... Now that the narrative is there, I am going to outline what I currently see here. In the next couple days, it looks like SPX is going to find some key resistance at the 3900-3920 area based on a measurement of what I predict is wave 3. This means we've got another low to put in before the year is over. Note - 3795 is likely not the low of this move down that we've seen since December 13th. Corrections are complicated and are designed to confuse you and steal money from overleveraged traders without any plans. This is no different. Plenty of bears got their faces ripped off today so you need to be able to adapt to change as it comes. Watch the 5 wave advance from the lows that we have here. Wait for a pullback, and then a completion of the cycle at 3915-3920 area. That's our 50% internal retracement. We have an area at the 38.2% currently which is the highest probability area for a wave 4 rejection (rejection in this case specifically). One day at a time we will continue to dominate the market.
SP:SPXShort
by bitdoctor
3