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Morning Update: Will we see 3894 for the "a-wave" ?This morning futures are flat, to higher, as it continues carving out what I'm counting as just the a-wave. I would like to see this a-wave get to at least 3894 before the corresponding b-wave starts. As you can see from the below, I am expecting this larger b-wave pattern to ultimately reconcile in the 3947-4036 area for just a standard retracement b-wave. Once we get into the a-wave target box we will have a 3-wave retracement. Although I am counting this as just the a-wave, technically we could complete there. Again I'll remind you to know you're stop levels. As of now, nothing price has done is extraordinary, so therefore I have no reason to conclude we will not retrace in a standard fashion which is price in the minimum area of 3947 to 4036 , with a maximum of 4100. Lastly I will be closing my 4100-4200 short calls today as they are pretty much worthless and provide no hedge. I will restrike higher if appropriate. House Keeping: My family and I will be spending Christmas with our son who recently moved to Kansas City, MO. We leave tomorrow and return to Orlando on January 29th. Therefore, tomorrow's morning update will be the last post till around 12/30 while we celebrate the holidays with family. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
4
Evening Update: (a) of b UnderwayIdeally (a) of b should target the .382 which is 3947 minimally....but be aware of a potential completion at the 3890-95 area at the .236. With the red count still hanging out there we should be prepared for shallow retraces. To the degree this b wave plays and retraces to the ideal location of 4030-4040 then the Red Count again loses even more probability. I've mentioned this count was a low probability to begin with... but in an abundance of caution I bring it up. Micro count below. This b wave should take us into end of this week to beginning of next week for final completion . If long, make sure you have stops in place. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
Morning Update: Wave-a bottomed? In my weekend update I outlined the below. “However, my primary expectation is minor (wave 3 of a) completed on Friday at the 3855 level and now we’re carving out our minor wave 4. If my primary micro count is what is playing out then wave 3 extended to almost the 1.618% Fib support area . Therefore, I would expect the corrective retracement to stay slightly lower than the 1.0 Fib area at 3940. From there we should expect one more decline potentially below 3830 to right around the 3800 level...slightly above the 2.0.” Since we came into the area of right above the 2.0 because of extensions I can draw a reasonable conclusion that the a-wave has bottomed. The pattern appears full and therefore, it is my expectation we will now retrace some of the losses incurred over the last several days as per the below micro chart. This retracement pathway outlines an IDEAL RETRACEMENT. There's no guarantees we will get an ideal retracement...but on a minimal pathway I would expect the .382 area of 3940-3950 to hit. Lastly, on the 4-hour main chart in the post you can see MACD is now lower than at the 3502 bottom in October. Hidden Bullish Divergence simply adds to the notion that prices could reverse soon. If you plan to buy for the b-wave retracement, I would watch or stop out at 3794 if you want to give this some room, or last night's LOD at 3803.50. Buying this pattern outright should only be done with a disciplined risk management plan. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
Trade Alert: Short -25 Dec EOM 3700 PutsCurrently I am short -25 calls that expire EOM Dec 22. I'm short -10 4200 Calls which are almost worthless and -15 4100 calls in which I'm up almost 65%. Those positions enable me to put on opposing short put trades without utilizing any additional buying power . I'm now short -25 3700 EOM Dec Puts at $10.50 for an additional $13,054.50 in premium. This would enable me to get to half of my original December goal. I want to be clear, I am not sure we have bottomed in wave a of larger B. But with the target for the larger B being down in the 3700 region...I felt it best to take advantage of the time premium. This does not augment my analysis in the slightest. This position affords me an additional 140 points of leeway...so be careful with outright longs. I'll update in the morning. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
5
Evening Update: We're in the Target Box for "a"We're coming into the bottoming zone I forecasted. As price finishes its minor wave 5 of c of larger a, we could get down to as low as the 3799 -3810 area. Price should bottom soon, in which I expect a rally back to as high as the 4044 level. This could be a nice tradeable rally for at least 120 to as much as 200 points. In the area of 3795 I may strike an opposing short -25 puts trade Dec EOM which will not use any additional buying power. Let's see how the ES closes and the overnights. Again, we have the red count out there...if we get under 3760 then this starts to become a higher probability...so going long and shorting puts should be done when a bottom is confirmed. Best to all,
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
Looking for ES One hour breakoutThe ES one hour time frame is in a large sideways range. The market is near the bottom of the range but has not closed below support. It will be a good idea to wait for the market to enter into the sell zone before looking for selling ideas. Entry: Counter trend line break bearish in the sell zone below the one hour support. STOP: In the buy zone above the entry price. LIMIT: 3554.75 Once or if the market enters into the sell zone. As long as the market stays in the sell zone. It will be a good idea to turn to the five minute time frame and to look for tunnel trader short / destination trader short / chandelier trader short ideas towards the price target.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Traders-Agency
SPX - Will we close above or below this trendline today?SPX - Will we close above or below this trendline today? Lets go through yesterday CPI came out lower so US equities headed higher, DXY headed lower but now look where we are. Today we have FOMC - In my opinion we can't even close above it do we today we took back all move of CPI if we close below it I think we back within these ranges and perhaps bears gain further control. Will Powell be dovish or Hawkish - The way I see it we get coin flip - Santa or the grinch. Trade Journal
SP:SPX
by Trade_Journal
1
SPX Model Trading Plans for MON. 12/19Next Support Level Being Tested The key support level identified in our trading plans published on Wed., 12/07 - and, reiterated on Thu., 12/15 - at 3900-3910 has been decisively broken down, and the index is now testing the next key support level around the 3825-3835 range. Our models are indicating a range-bound trading while the index is trading within the broader 3810-3830 range on a daily close basis. If you are short, you might want to take profits on a break out of this range. If you are itching to go long, you might want to wait until the range is broken out of to the upside. Positional Trading Models: Our positional trading models went short on Thursday, 12/15, on a break below 3895 (opened at 3893.51) with a 40-point trailing stop and a break-even hard stop in effect. Models are indicating instituting a hard stop at 3843 for today. If stopped out, models indicate staying flat for the rest of the session. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for MON. 12/19: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 3825, 3838, 3844, or 3852 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3840, 3833 or 3820 with a 10-point trailing stop.  Models indicate long exits on a break below 3863, and short exits on a break above 3813. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:31 am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please see for yourself how our published trading plans have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  ***** No Idle Analysis-paralysis here! Only actionable trading plans - every morning! And, transparent, verifiable results of each and every trading plan, every night! LET THE RESULTS SPEAK FOR OUR MODELS! See for yourself how our Morning Trading Plans have been doing for the last one month or one year or since started! ***** NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #fomc, #fed, #newhigh, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #powell, #interestrates, #rates, #earnings, #midterms, #elections, #cpi, #fedpivot, #shortsqueeze, #bulltrap TradingView Tags: spx500 spx spy es1! spx500usd spx500long spx500short es1 esmini
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
1
Morning Update: Minor wave 4 STILL UNDERWAY with OML to comeGood morning all. As we get ready for today's trading day we find price is consolidating in our minor wave 4 with ultimately one more poke lower towards the 3830 to 3800 region. Technically, this micro wave 4 can be done so I have indicated that with an alternative purple 4 on the below micro chart. This is an alternative if price breaches 3855 without moving into the 3900 region. However, my expectation is we have NOT finished wave 4 and should be carving out our minor b of 4 now. I do expect price to eventually get above 3900 in the next 24-48 hours. This is not an area that is safe to trade. Undoubtedly as I write this some of you will go long. Long is a slightly higher risk trade even though I am expecting slightly higher due to an alternate label being placed on the micro chart. Additionally to short is to participate in the final machinations of a short term downtrend and you risk over staying your welcome. Let the pattern play out. We should get OML this week, then have a tradable rally to conclude the year. Lets see what clues take place today and I'll update you this evening. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
3
New SPY Cycle Patterns Headed Into Christmas 2022Pay attention to the very real possibility that the current GAP will be filled early this week as price attempts to find a base/bottom after last week's selling. I expect moderate volatility and a change of trend as we move closer to Christmas. Initially, we'll see some moderate downward price pressure, then we'll see a shift upward near the end of this week. 12/18/2022 Inside-Breakaway 12/19/2022 POP 12/20/2022 12/21/2022 Top/Resistance 12/22/2022 Flat-Down 12/23/2022 MntmRally-012 12/24/2022 GapUp-Lower Remember, stay protected and stay safe as volatility may be excessive over the next few weeks. 2023 looks very interesting. Follow my research to learn more.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
SPX - Fork in the roadCurrently the S&P 500 can be seen in 3 views. I have a primary view and two alternates: First, the yellow path - my primary. After the FED comes out today, I think it'll cause a pullback in the market, but it won't be what everybody is expecting. I expect the pullback to complete a small correction from the top and pull back to around 3880-3900. Bears will get frothy and will be late to the short game. From there, a spike on "Black Friday" can take markets up to my target of 4150. Second, the green path. Difference here is an ABC correction vs a WXY correction. Minor difference, but this one sees us in a wave 3 going up to wave 5 at the same 4150 target in the first point. What I like about this count is the ABC in wave X for the first point doesn't look great as wave C into X doesn't look geometrically pleasing to me. What I don't like about this being a 1-2 is the move into wave 1 doesn't look super impulsive and looks corrective. That's why I put this as my second favorite count. Still with the same target at 4150 and probably on Friday. Last but not least is my 3rd count which isn't on the chart. It basically has the top being in ~4040 and we're in a bearish 1-2 pattern to the downside. I think this is the least probable at the moment. The move down from the top into the 38.2% retracement looks very corrective and doesn't look impulsive at all. If this is true, however, the target to the downside will come lower than we expect. Ok, now what? Now that we're at this critical juncture, a fork in the road, we have multiple scenarios that can play out here. Most of them have targets higher short term. Ultimately I think we're going to stay down here and possibly make a new yearly low before mid-December. Best case scenario, we're building a leading diagonal to create a start of a new major uptrend. Worst case scenario, we go down to 3300-3500 by EOY. Our options analysis looking into the next few weeks shows the following: Call/Put $ value and not Open Interest 11/25/2022: 92.2/7.8 12/2/2022: 85.7/14.3 12/9/2022: 75.9/24.1 12/16/2022: 98.7/1.3 (OpEx) 12/16/2022: 96/4 (normal Weekly) 12/23/2022: 68/32
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by bitdoctor
2
Weekend Update: ES Poised to Tag 3830 Friday saw the futures contract continue to come down from the CPI spike to 4180 with a close at 3872. That turns out to be a loss of 7.5% in 2 trading days. My primary analysis is we’re in a corrective decline that will take on a 3-wave shape...this decline only being the “a” wave. It’s my primary expectation that price will bottom in this “a” wave possibly as close as the 3830 region. This is the ideal location for a bottom without extensions (purple count on the micro chart below). However, my primary expectation is minor (wave 3 of a) completed on Friday at the 3855 level and now we’re carving out our minor wave 4. If my primary micro count is what is playing out then wave 3 extended to almost the 1.618% Fib support area. Therefore, I would expect the corrective retracement to stay slightly lower than the 1.0 Fib area at 3940. From there we should expect one more decline potentially below 3830 to right around the 3800 level...slightly above the 2.0. That is the ideal pathway for the (a of c of B). Rogue Red Count Pathway (Less of a probability) Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
12
40 Bar Cycle Chart - S&P 500 SPY SPX ES1! - Updated 121722This last week, markets initially rallied on the release of the "cooler" than expected November CPI (Consumer Price Index) — only to be smacked back to reality on the comments via Federal Reserve Chairman J. Powell during the December Interest Rate Decision (FOMC) meeting this last Wednesday as "higher for longer" is the communicated pathway forward for the FED and financial markets. Whether this is all talk to put some intentional downward pressure on markets, as financial conditions have eased as of late — or this is the actual pathway forward and the bond markets are mis-pricing the projected Terminal FFR (Fed Funds Rate, now >5% into 23'), some indicators such as our (40-Bar Cycle Chart) 📉 are highlighting what is likely another leg down in financial assets as QT ramps up and higher interest rates take their toll on real economic activity. Keep in mind that behind the scenes, the FED in coordination with the U.S. Treasury are working their magic 🧙🏼‍♂️🔮 in terms of FED Net Liquidity to keep things "(dis)orderly". Here is the updated 40-Bar Cycle Chart for SPY ES1! SPX, which seems to be sitting on some major support. Given the structure of the markets after losing the $390 SPY / $3,900 ES1! SPX, along with J. Powell and other FED speaker comments post-FOMC on Friday, is the hopes for a year-end 🎅 🎄 rally wishful thinking? SPY Daily Chart Template www.tradingview.com Which camp are you in on the short-term (end of year into Q1/23') direction of markets? Camp A: We are likely we headed for new lows in Q1/23 (Fluctuating Inflation + Persistent Price/Wage Pressures + Hawkish FED). Camp B: We are likely to break the downtrend into the start of Q1/23' (Peak Inflation + Deflationary Forces + Dovish FED). Let me know your prediction in the comments below! 👇🏼
AMEX:SPYShort
by kylemusserco
ES Price to Big Confluence looking to re commit.Price is up to a big confluence that had the gravity to get it here. It's up to the Chartmojo Unwound Neutral Cloud, The space between 50% range and avwap. Also there is a big resistance trendline wth a volume shelf just above and poc just below. There are traders on each of those components and additional confluence players involved. That means more traders, targets, orders, exits, entries, stops etc. there. I will box in the consolidation on say a 30 minute chart and let traders probe up down looking for the weak side to push into. Breakout players will be lining up orders outside the box looking for the break. I will imagine different scenarios and take the one that confirms. (B.Kovner) It was a great move off the low to neutral unwound. I'll look for ticks and top 10 in es to lead the break from the box. Influencers know this is a good spot to drop new info to influence the direction out of this zone so I'll be listening to fin. news. Thesis: Price moves from confluence to confluence in waves and patterns, (force). 50% range, vwap is a neutral apex, a balance point and traders hone in on them. Helps to understand how to play a breakout and make sure its not a trap. I'll scalp es urges repeatedly and hopefully leave half in if in my direction w adaptable trailing stops if it runs. The longer price sits in the consolidation the more a volatility squeeze will build. Observe, adapt, evolve, survive. Awarenes, not interpretation. Alertness keeps thinking at bay and the cognitive biases. If x occurs do x1, if y occurs do y1. The only way around the zillion cognitive biases that plague traders.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by chartmojo
1
Morning Update: Wave 3 of wave “a” looks complete I’m supposed to be off the desk...but it’s just easier to update this way, then answer the barrage of DM’s. Looking below at a zoomed in micro count. Wave 3 has so far come right into the 1.382% Fibonacci support area of 3884.25. We’ve poked slightly below that and that’s fine. Ideally, we would anticipate an ABC of minor degree to get up the 1.0 area a 3940.25. Then ultimately down to the 3830 – 3826 level for completion. That’s the ideal path and so far, price is following an ideal path. I have warned against the temptation to buy and some of you have DM’d me about being long in the 3920 area. We’re still vulnerable to extensions lower and if that happens, the ideal fib locations get moved down...so you have to make a risk management call. If price heads to 3867 before it tags 3905 then we’re extending lower. Long is a risky trade from my perspective. If I had to go long, I would wait for the 3830 area and that’s without extensions. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
2