Get started

ES

Morning Update: Let the Hunger Games Begin !You may not feel like a "tribute" but make no mistake, we're all competing in the SPX hunger games now. With The Fed having concluded it's last FOMC of '22, it would appear they're are more factors at play for prices to decline, than rally . One of them being, tax related selling. Therefore it appears momentum is ( or has ) shifted and the bears may start to take control of price as soon as today. Below is the micro count, where as, if this decline ONLY takes an ideal shape, my target is 3830. If my primary count is correct, then today we're in wave 3 of "a" down and that means we should be down 100-120 (+) points today. If black is playing out we should get a pause in our decline around the 3884 level at the 1.382 Fib Support area...and then continue (unless this shapes up to a 3-wave "a" wave). Additionally, since we have not breached 3956 yet, I can not rule out only OML, and a trip back to 4100 for a wave 2, before our wave 3 decline takes place. This alternate count is represented above in purple. On CPI day, I made a comment right before I started building my short position, that the way this pattern started out told me it was corrective. I draw your attention to that comment only to say, sometimes the price pattern gives us clues. Albeit subtle, but clues help us solve the price pattern puzzle. I will reiterate, we have a topping pattern underway today. Whether this pattern is a 5-wave "a" wave, or a 3-wave "a" wave....regardless of how this completes (we're either in wave 3 or a c wave down. Those tend to be the strongest portions of the pattern. Last night I was able to sell -15 ES 4100 Dec EOM calls for enough (if I'm successful and they expire) to get my December to close out slightly profitable. It is definitely not the outcome I anticipated...but that means I'm done trading for the rest of 2022. The last thing I will remind you of today, is the red count. Again, this is not my primary or secondary count, but it is still a possibility. That chart is below. Again, over the last week, I mentioned about buying the market as it declines and to be weary of that temptation. Understand that price is in a precarious position. If the pattern plays out like I am expecting in my black count, they're will be buying opportunities next month that are sustainable. I'm not talking about scalping. To get in front of what I think is starting today...is a kin to a freight train. I wouldn't recommend it. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
10
Trade Plan 12/15/2022 TP1> if we manage to Trade/Bid above MAIN POC 4078, we can test > 4108 > 4141 > 4186 > 4207 > 4221 TP2> if we Open/Trade below MAIN POC 4078 > we can test > 4054 > 4035 > 3995 > 3980 > 3960 > 3934 > 3914 (LIS - Bulls Trapped) Volume Profile 12/14/2022 - Unfair High 4091 (Below Y High) FOMC DUMP, and no BUYERS. Volume accumulation setup > It is forming since yesterday when SELLERS were super aggressive, strong SELLERS entering their positions in Rotation Area, with a clear change on the Volume Profile TREND. Strong Sellers who were accumulating their positions are likely to defend their positions and their interests. So, when the price returns to the volume accumulation area > MAIN POC 4078 (12/14) and MAIN POC 4054 (12/13), Strong Sellers start to defend their positions aggressively. This means that strong buyers start aggressive buying activity to drive the price upwards again. Strong sellers defend their short positions by aggressive sell-off which moves the price lower again. Here is a picture to demonstrate this (Short trade scenario): *This is a 50/50 Game, trade plan & risk management and trade management is mandatory
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by IronMan_Trader
Evening Update: Breach $3997 then $3956...3830 is the targetOne of the many reasons I don't pay attention to the content of economic news is market reaction rarely lines up the news. It matches the traders sentiment obviously...but many times the news says one thing and prices say another. Yesterday the market spiked up initially on what most would consider a better than expected CPI report and then spent the vast majority of the day coming down. Then the market got precisely what it was anticipating from The Fed in the form of a 50% rate hike vs. a 75% one. The market goes down. The excuse is the Dot Plot...But I could have said I wore a red short today and that is why we went down. It's stupid and baseless. I was expecting lower yesterday in a local top to start a downtrend...if I am any indication of sentiment at large...then the market was ultimately looking for a means to reconcile lower anyway. Needless to say, we appear to be headed lower. Todays low of 3997 is the first price point that needs to get breached and then 3956....for confirmation. If that happens I am targeting 3830 for just the "a" wave of this B wave decline...which should reconcile in the low 3700's late January-beginning of February 2023. If price will cooperate, we can then spend the majority of 2023 rallying back to the 4300 area...before it's get's ugly again. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
Morning Update: Fed DayLike most Fed days it is not my expectation for price to make any large moves until the afternoon. With yesterday's roller coaster ride in the futures, nothing really changed. Below is the intraday SPX chart. Despite all the fireworks in futures, the cash index remained contained. My assessment of the cash index is unless we can make a new high today...this pattern only requires a c wave down to approximately the 3920 level for minimum completion. In the cash index A=C right where it started. But we're not trading the cash index, we're trading the futures contract. I can reconcile the two but the futures still hangs on to the potential of OMH. I'll update tonight after the Fed announcement. I would be remiss if I did not warn you about protection, stops...etc. The volatility of Fed Days can mimic yesterday's action. Be careful. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
1
SPX pathway into 19th lowThis is the best I can come up with today. i didnt do much research today. Want to see a lower low in am and bounce after the Interest rate decision, then the whole move will be faded after Powell starts talking. Short around 2am, buy am low for the interest rate decision and sell that rip (if we get one) right before Powell starts talking. Thats my plan for tomorrow I have a price to short at 4044-47SPX and 4080SPX, those are the levels to watch, especially the second number. ES resistance is at 4090-99 Its my BD tomorrow, might be less active, but will try to tweet my trades. Resistance levels are the same - 4028-34SPX - 4100-4110SPX Main support on closing level is 3933SPX. I still think we should see 3748SPX gap filled this month and 3212SPX early (Q1) next year
SP:SPX
by RealTima
20
US Stocks are about to EXPLODE higher. Here we goThe reflation trade in the US stock market (Wave-5) is about to explode above the GREEN resistance line. Far too many people continue to believe the US markets will collapse on some Fed/Economic crisis event. What they don't understand is the US is in a different position right now. Yes, deflation trends may continue for REAL ASSETS (homes, cars, commodities, others), but as long as the US economy continues to tick along (employment, wages, consumers), billions of dollars every month flow into IRAs, 401Ks, and other investment assets. This is what I call the "economic bias" related to money flow and US dollar depreciation. Over time, the natural process of the US/global economy is to GROW - not CONTRACT. Therefore, we need to be prepared for a reflation trade (similar to 2003-05 when the US markets move upward after the 9/11 event). Follow my research.
FX:SPX500Long
by BradMatheny
Evening Update: I'm not gonna Sugarcoat itI'll spend a total of a couple sentences surmising my trading day which ended at about 845 am EST and then I slept all day. I will not go into the details of what happened...you can read my previous posts for that. But today could best be described as DUMB on my part. Sure in retrospect had it gone the other way I wouldn't describe it as that...but even if it had... I would've made this mistake in the future. I got no sleep last night, and decided to would enter the market on a day in which I was expecting volatility. That's not smart...that's hubris. One could say, well the analysis was bad, not that you had no sleep. Fair point given the results...but in truth, I was not expecting that. So with that...I have to move on. Today's price action so far is only 3 waves up. Even though we breached the 4110 recent high, and the September high of 4175 we do not have a completed 5 wave pattern up. As of now I'm counting today's spike as a "b" wave. Pretty much no change to my previous analysis except the "b" wave made a higher high. Here's another look of what I'm referring to but in a line chart (on a closing basis) without the spike up and down. If we do not trade lower than 4026 tonight than it's possible we get another high. Any trade below 4026 and I have no choice but to assume we topped today. I will wait for more price action to make a better determination as to direction. Suffice to say...today set me back in my determination to juice my annual P&L before end of year. I will never trade tired again. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
21
ES support @ 4018 now becomes critical trigger levelThis big rotation to the upside, after the CPI number, presents a new $4018 support level on the ES for traders. The Fed rate decision tomorrow may send markets briefly below this level, but watch for a reflation trade to setup after the Fed comments. If my research is correct, a melt-up trend has already been established. I expect the US Dollar to melt back above 105 while Gold and Silver continue to melt upward as well. The US markets may continue this upward trend into Q1:2023. Follow my research.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by BradMatheny
Trade Alert: Short -3 ES at 4045.75This is a speculative trade. I'll add to it into 4068 and if wrong stop out just over the .768. The manner in which this pattern started off in my opinion can only be corrective. Therefore I'm restriking my short. Suffice to say, If I'm right, the entry opportunities will be few and far between. If price only comes into the area where I'm counting a micro wave 4 and consolidates...I will close this position. I'll elaborate as the day goes on. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
20
SPX - 1 year correction completed.If Dec 2021 had been the a Major (iii), then a complex corrective Wave 4 is possible which could span months or years. Taking one step at a time. I believe we had hit a strong support and a completed Wave C. The current move off support zone had been rather steady. Price is testing down trend line for the 3rd time. With an impulsive Wave (3) heading into the trend line, higher chances it will break upwards. Completion of minor Wave (5) at around 4150, with possible extension to 4300. I seldom touch indices. Take this with a pinch of salt.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by QuercusTrading
1
Are you ready for the CPI?Are you ready for the CPI? Forecast 7.3% - If it comes lower, it's good result you may get SPX climb higher. However think about how low it comes in or does it come in line or do we get opposite and comes out higher or in-line. Don't forget we have CPI today but we have FOMC tomorrow. I am going to be trading the two events separate taking my CPI trades off with a clean look for FOMC tomorrow as Powell could be Hawkish or Dovish - who knows? Don't forget to trade your own plan to become a consistent trader. Enjoy, Trade Journal
SP:SPX
by Trade_Journal
2
Special Update: Micro Count AttachedSo last night was our company Xmas celebration. I got home at 11pm...for reasons unknown to me...I can't sleep. My insomnia has me into charts and now I must warn you...I'm drinking coffee...lol. But the reason for this special update is this contract roll over, and the various charts. I am getting different signals from the SPX cash chart, the Futures continuous chart and then lastly the outright contract chart of ESH23. Unless you're experienced with trading futures...this will sound like gibberish to you. The chart above is the Futures continuous chart. We have the .618 at 4035 (just hit as I'm writing this) and the .786 at 4068. I think one or BOTH of those areas have a shot at being hitting. The reason is the "a" wave of a corrective structure will typically target right around the .382 retracement level which we did...but our decline was too shallow to stop at the .618...and I am now of the opinion we will tag the .786 up at 4068 within that this chart. Suffice to say, the SPX chart above looks like as long as we stay below 4022 which is where wave 1 of c bottomed...then OML down completes this "5 of a" wave down. However given with how futures are trading...I believe this pattern could become invalidated. The ESH23 chart I can not track here...but within my Think or Swim platform we're targeting the 4061 area. If price gets into the 4060-4070 area...it is here where I will observe the pattern to restrike short. Above 4070 and I’m on the sidelines….I'll update on this post if I do so. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
4
Morning Update: Price in a Vulnerable Position With the advance into the 4030 area price has now retraced to just below the .618% of the decline from 4110 to 3914. We also have what appears to be a pretty clear head and shoulders topping pattern. I mentioned the other day about being weary of buying as we decline. The main reason for this warning is that old red count I do not feature on the intraday chart. You'll remember this chart below. I do not see a high probability to the count but there is still a possibility. You'll know if red is playing out if we start declining impulsively and within several weeks we've breached the 3502 low. I'm short -5 contracts from 4023 and have a -2 contract limit in at 4035. If price can breach 3956 and then impulsively take out 3912.50, 3830 becomes a real possibility. I may do a special update later on in the trading day if price gets volatile today. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
4
Evening Update (Early): Futures Topping shortly if not alreadyI have a work related Christmas Event to attend tonight so I'm putting out my evening update early. As you can see we've come into the .618% retracement of our "a" wave for a "b" wave top. It is possible the .768% at 4006 gets tagged...but it is not my expectation for price to more beyond that. Once we have a confirmed top I expect a "c" wave down towards the area of 3830. Nothing more to add. I'll update tomorrow morning. Have a great evening. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
6
SPY Cycle Patterns For Dec 12, 2022 - More sideways melt-up.Here are the SPY Cycle Patterns for this week. Expect more sideways melt-up trending as we head into the Fed rate decision and key economic data. Traders will start to shift into early 2023 expectations this week (after the Fed). Check out my other posts. The markets are not expecting anything extraordinary right now - more of the same. The Fed rate decision will likely come in between 50pb and 75pb (as expected). All of this has been BAKED INTO the markets already. I can tell you what I'm seeing out here in So. Cal... Shoppers EVERYWHERE. Traffic is a mess. Lots of our of state cars everywhere. Malls and shopping centers seem packed. From what I can see, Q4:2022 will probably stay very solid for retail and online shopping. Unless there is some catalyst to BREAK the markets, US stocks should slide into 2023 with fairly strong expectations. Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2
Morning Update: Futures poised to visit the 3800'sIn the overnights the futures bounced between slight losses to gains. As I posted in my weekend update the SPX cash index looks ready to at least make one more lower low. I can't tell if we'll get that today. Lastly "tis the season for tax related selling". As of this morning I'm 50/50 whether this is a minor wave 4 with OML coming, or the "b' wave, in which we are in the target box for. If the latter, than OML is not what we'll get but we'll end up with is a c of "a" down that could be in the area of 150 -200 points lower. If we are impulsively trading below 3880 than we know this is a c wave and not wave 5 of a. Today should fill in more of the pattern and I'll update tonight. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
5
Weekend Update: Good Chance I get my December Goal Next WeekAs my followers know , In my quest to close out my 2022 P&L I am looking to manufacture $50,000 in profits in the month of December. Last week allowed me to get to half that goal. If you're new to reading or following me, I do not share this information to brag. I do not claim to be some gifted trader with the best information or processes known to man. I would characterize myself as a Full-Time Pattern Analyst and a part-time trader. Now granted, This is how I make a living. But I trade 10% of the time and analyze 90% of the time...so I guess that would make me a part-time trader. Recap: (You can scroll through my posts for context on the below) Currently I am short 7 ES contracts at 3975.25 (after the roll over to the active contract) my basis is 4005.25. I have used 68% my allocated buying power of 25 contracts. I'm short -10 ES Dec EOM 4200 Calls, and -7 outright contracts. So far I have generated approximately $25,000 but much of that is unrealized gains in my current position in which I have not closed. The current pattern is shaping up to last into next week and maybe slightly beyond for our larger “a” wave...in which I am targeting the 3880-3820 area. 3835 is the 1.0 and where A=C. So that’s a minimum of 90 points lower just at 3880. At 3880 I make my December goal with my current position. In the cash market, we still need a wave 5 down...of approximately 20 points should do it. As my longer term followers know, I do not follow the news, other analysts, etc. What you get from me here is literally created in a vacuum. On Thursday evening I was talking to @vancebaker and he casually mentioned, "...We have the report tomorrow at 830am." I actually said, what report? It was a funny moment at the time, but I caught myself thinking..."wow, am I out of touch?' Usually I know when the catalysts are arriving...but my lack of respect for news and events sometimes leaves me oblivious to the economic calendar. I know that sounds unorthodox to some of you reading me right now...but after sharing over 500 ideas with my followers in the last 10 months...I think my older followers have come around to my way of thinking. I share the details of my successes and failures here to provide context to those who read me. I give detailed analysis and my posts here are not guesses. Hopefully what I pass along through my posts here on Trading View is assisting you in formulating your own strategies to trade for profit. I'll conclude with the next couple weeks should certainly be interesting as traders close out December around the world. If we can get through December, we should have at least a couple months of upside to trade in the beginning of the new year. Best to all, Chris Starting January 3rd I will limit my posts to once per week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
9