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Morning Update: Now short 7 contracts at an average of 3975.25 This morning the active continuous ES contract reached a high of 3982.75 as of this update. I posted to last night's updated where I added 3 additional contracts at 3981 this morning bringing my average to 3975.25 on 7 ESZ22 contracts. With Trading View's charts now featuring the ESH23 contract much of what I write here may not match up to the chart. The pattern could still be a wave 4 as price has not overlapped wave 1. However, this movement upward from 3914 yesterday is starting to look like it’s our "b" wave retracement. However our “b” of still the “a” wave. You’ll notice in the chart above I am now labeling our wave a as having subdivided to where the decline I am anticipating today will be the start of our “c” to conclude our larger a wave decline of this abc. I am obviously positioned for downside...and as of right now this chart looks poised to me to reconcile lower...and the an equally probable outcome of reconciling A LOT LOWER 3810. A couple days ago I mentioned to would buy the next low in size...then during the day started a short position. Being that it is looking more and more likely this is still the "a" wave...I will observe the decline rather than outright buy. BE CAREFUL BUYING IF TODAY SHAPES UP TO BE A DECLINE AS I AM LOOKING FOR. Any activity or update to trading will be done here on this post. CHECK BACK THROUGHOUT THE DAY OR KEEP THIS POST UP ON YOUR SCREEN IF INTERESTED. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
7
Evening Update: Today Muddied the Waters a Bit In this morning’s update I wrote that I was expecting 3904-3882 area. 3904 would be the minimum for completion...as wave 3 extended beyond the 1.618% vs ending at 1.382%. When patterns extend, they complete at areas beyond the ideal conclusion areas. Therefore the 1.786% is where I would expect a standard impulse to end...but since wave 3 extended I would anticipate the 2.0 to the area of the 2.618 to be tagged. But the 1.786% at the 3904 area should at the very least get tagged. Today our wave 4 (as I am counting it) was drawn out. It makes perfect sense since the wave 2 was NOT. We got that drawn out price action today. I could have chosen to wait for the next low to go long... but I decided to start a short position. The reason I made this decision was we extended downward...therefore the retrace in wave 4 should tag areas to reflect wave 3 extended. Normally a wave 4 will target the 1.382 to 1.0 depending on how the impulse is shaping out. We did not hit the 1.0 today, but I honestly wasn’t expecting we would, given the downward extensions. However we came close...which is not what I would expect. I am still counting this as a wave 4 retrace of wave “a” down...but I have to also be mindful now that price entered the “b” wave target area...this could be the "b" wave...and we could make a bee-line to the 3700 area. So, in my opinion, whether this is a wave 4 retrace, shorting is not the worst idea...even though we’re only expecting OML. If it’s a “b” wave then price could drop deeper than 3882 from here. Right now, I’m short 4 ES contracts at an average price of 3957.25. I am watching tonight for how the pattern develops...but overall, it is my opinion it's just a wave 4 and OML gets it done. But I want to be cautious with longs down in that area. My opinion on it being still just a wave 4 of c of a is the cash market. Cash market appears slightly clearer than the ES with OML to go. Let’s see what tomorrow brings and if the 3904-3882 area gets some action tomorrow. Above the 3885 area and I start to think this is no longer a 4 and we're in a "b" wave. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
7
Morning Update: 3904 - 3882 Area in SightIn the overnights we came down but did not make that new low. I spend a lot of time looking for ideal patterns to trade. With the pressure on me in the last month of 2022, a move down below 3912.50 to the area outlined above is an ideal pattern bottom. If I get that, I plan to put on a sizeable long which could provide a 100 point move to the upside. If we do get that move lower today and I'm successful in filling my long trade...I do not plan on staying in it for the full 100 points. This is a countertrend trade and they are much riskier. However, the move higher will be a 3-wave move in an abc, and it's the "a" wave I want to peel off some profits. 3960 area is where I would close this trade. So the goal today and tomorrow is 50-80 ES points. December Goal $50,000 Short ES Calls 4200 strike = $6400 12.7.22 = Scalping = $2,500 Remaining = $41,100 to go If for whatever reason we do not get that lower low I'm looking for...we regroup to potentially short the retrace that could end up in the low 4,000 area. Remember: We let price come to us. Even though I believe we have tradable upside from here...I am expecting OML which could be 50 points lower. Observing, waiting and being patient for price to come to you puts you in trades of high confidence, and allows you to ride out trades to designated targets. I'll post all activity today in this post in the update area like yesterday. Lastly, I am not a day trader by nature. However I am far more active this month because I am closing out my Annual P&L in 3 weeks. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
12
SPX - 2008 vs 2022 ---- levels to watch All in the video, very simply bulls want to at least hold 3900 for the week to keep the weekly 18 ma bias in the bullish camp. Even better for bulls would be recapturing 4k which would get us over the daily 18ma again. Bears want to see the weekly 18ma at 3900 break and hold under for the week, but a test of the daily 18 at 4k and rejection would be an ideal shorting opportunity. Jobs numbers tomorrow at 8:30 may get us to the daily 18ma test, but it's only bullish if we close above it on a daily close. The Weekly candle will give more clues for next week. Good luck!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by the_sunship
5
Evening Update: Getting closer to a local lowToday was a rather productive day but no big moves. I was able to trade a total 50 ES points on the short side. I posted that trade activity in the morning update . Nonetheless, we did not breach 3912.50…we came close but nothing definitive. Tonight, I expect we will breach that area, or at least by the time the cash market opens tomorrow. Any move above 3982 invalidates the OML expectation. It is still my expectation for this decline to complete in the area of 3904 to 3882 before our retrace higher begins. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
Morning Update: I'm Hunting ProfitsYesterday morning I informed my followers that we could get resolution that day. We did. It appears our “a” wave has topped and now our “b” wave retrace to the downside has started. This retrace could take up to a couple weeks to complete. Main point is, “b” waves can become complex patterns. This is where is sentiment is shifting, but hasn’t fully shifted . Yesterday I was frustrated... and this is how best to surmise “b” wave trader sentiment. In the micro chart pattern I am expecting at least one more poke lower to 3904 minimum and ideally to 3882 before we start to get a bounce. Purple labels are alternate. I will do my best to post trade alerts...today my focus is on manufacturing a portion of the remaining $44k in profits that is my close out goal(I did $6,400 yesterday of the $50k needed). Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
5
S&P 500: Volume Profile 📊 and Price action analysis 📋On S&P 500 is nice to see strong sell-off from the price 4000.00 , there are nice to see strong volume area.... Where is lot of contract accumulated... I thing that sellers from this area will be defend this short position... and when the price come back to this area, strong sellers will be push down the market again... Downtrend + Strong S/R zone from the past + Strong volume area is my mainly reason for this short trade.... Happy trading Dale
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Trader_Dale
Evening Update: "a" wave appears complete...Frustration sets inToday was frustrating for me. It was hard to envision we would've dropped this hard from the 4110 level having not reached A=C up at 4158. Sometimes price decides not to cooperate. People think as an analyst you read the tea leaves...consult the "Gods of Trading"...and well forecasts should not be wrong. I stay true to what I see in the patterns I evaluate...but when price doesn't cooperate. I'm not fighting it. I want to make money first and foremost...and today was one of those days. Today I took a long at 3985.50 and within the hour I was stopped out at 3960 for $1,100 loss. Below 3981 and I was looking at my screen thinking to myself, "this OMH count of mine is now in serious jeopardy". I sold 10 ES December EOM 4200 Calls for $6400 in premium. Suffice to say, my $1,100 loss is covered...but time is not on my side. I know a lot of my followers and the casual readers of my posts follow others. I know you are exposed to other analytical ideas. I will tell you when I'm wrong. I don't know if the others will. But I want to make money more than be right. When I'm wrong...I post and say I was wrong. But today, I was holding out for OMH towards the 4158 area. I didn't get that end to the pattern. But I did gather clues. But that's another conversation. But I am trying to close out my 2022...and because price didn't cooperate with my plan...I am now under serious pressure. I need to generate $50K in profits and I have 3 weeks to do so. Now, I will not change my style of trading, my risk management, my approach...but I have a nut to crack. Late nights...are the on the menu for me. Today I shorted -10 ES December EOM 4200 calls at $13.50 for $6400 in premium. I'll let that expire. We should get one more poke lower to complete this minor a-wave of larger "b" by tomorrow....I will be eyeing the retrace to short with size. But I want to inform my followers of the nagging fact that until we breach 3912.50 this can still be the wave 2 I have looking for. Statistical probabilities being what they are...I am not looking for a push to 4158 right now(but I will get 4158)...but I am open minded...so I take nothing for granted. Size trading is on the menu...with tight stops. Let's play ball. Best to all. Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
6
Morning Update: Today should provide resolution We wake up this morning to the futures having done nothing of note. My expectation would’ve been my limit at 3985.50 would’ve filled. We did not get down there in the overnights. Therefore, this morning I pulled the limit in favor of just an alert. I’ll examine the pattern if I get an alert for a possible long. Nonetheless, my expectation remains the same with one more push higher into the 4158 area or higher. Once we get above 4110, I’ll have enough of a pattern to dial in final targets. If I decide to go long, I'll update. Keep in mind going long here is risky as we're anticipating this to be the final push higher for 2022...hence my trade size was only 1 ES contract. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
3
ES stopped at its bull trendlineLook where it stopped, loosing 3985 will be very bearish going into tomorrow. Im looking for a long trade, ideally we make a higher low tonight. The pathway for tomorrow can be a gap up and then sell into Wednesday or Thursday Very important to watch that trendline holing and if broken, there will be a perfect short setup when it retests that trendline from the bottom. If it wont re-test the thredline from the bottom (again if broken down), then it will be very bearish! Im thinking we will see The whole Powell speech erased, support is at 3940-50ES for the whole move down. Lets see if the price can get there tomorrow, it will be a good long entry for a 40-50 points move up Also I have a great confidence that the whole CPI move will be erased at some point, will it be end of this year or Jan, I dont know at this moment. 15th is the Panic Cycle Day, also 1 day before OPEX. Best scenario is we bottom after CPI and rally into Last week of Dec As of now, I see a trading cycle turn bearish, so short the rips will be the game for me.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RealTima
5
Evening Update: Are we on the precipitous?This morning I posted when SPX Futures price was in the 4070 region...I was expecting price to come into the 4040-4020 region for a minor wave ii. You want the truth? Forecasting markets is difficult. If a caveman could do it (Geico Ad Reference) than there would be no money attached to it. I have tried to educate my followers in the same vein as I am. I analyze patterns across my coverage list and look for opportunities... that is my job . That encompasses 90% of my time. I trade the other 10%. What I end up trading...is the high probability. Why? Because my job is to manufacture money out of thin air. Profits do not find a home to someone's bank account because their passionate. Profits do not find a home to someone's bank account because their confident. They find a home in your bank account because your right. Right...when most others were wrong. My followers knew I was flat, having just pocketed 80 ES points. Just after the lunch time EST time I posted a trade alert: Long ES at 3985.50. Now, I have not filled yet. ES came within 2 points of my limit order. BUT HERE'S THE POINT OF THIS DIATRIBE. Do the work...first and foremost (90% of the time analyzing)...when opportunities arise...as they do all the time...then trade. Not before. For tonight, I have a limit in for 1 ES contract at 3985.50 and my stop is 3975. I'm giving it some room. I still think we're not done to the upside. Below 3975 and I'm then leaning towards we've topped. I want to be clear about my plan because this is final hurrah for 2022. If anyone has questions as it pertains to this strategy...please leave them below...I will answer them all. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
1
SPX Model Trading Plans for MON. 12/05Fed Pivot Hope Turning Into a Bull Trap Nightmare? Day 2 In our trading plans published post-NFP on Fri., 12/02, we wrote: "After 20 days of meandering around 3950/4000 level, the index rocketed out of the range to a session high of 4093.50 on the FOMC day, 11/30/22. This morning's Non Farm Payrolls data could be suggesting that it could potentially be an "irrational exuberance", and the futures' reaction so far post-NFP points to this proving to be the case. Of course, how the index trades in the regular session and how it closes today will hold further clues to this". This morning's hotter than expected ISM numbers and the post-PMI reaction lending more plausibility to our hypothesis that the recent spike up could be turning into a bull trap. Bulls need to be cautious, and bears need to be patient. Positional Trading Models: For today's session, models indicate going long on a break above 4055, with a 35-point trailing stop and a hard stop at 4037, and going short on a break below 4018, with a 38-point trailing stop and a hard stop at 3026. Models also indicate instituting a break-even exit once a trade is in profit by 12 points. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for MON. 12/05: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4052, 4028, or 4003 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4048, 4024, or 4000 with a 10-point trailing stop.  Models indicate long exits on a break below 4064, and short exits on a break above 3992. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:01 am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. ***** No Idle Analysis-paralysis here! Only actionable trading plans - every morning! And, transparent, verifiable results of each and every trading plan, every night! LET THE RESULTS SPEAK FOR OUR MODELS! See for yourself how our Morning Trading Plans have been doing for the last one month or one year or since started! ***** NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. (iv) Positional Models assume that we are trading an instrument that trades the futures hours, with the trailing and other stops effective overnight. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #fomc, #fed, #newhigh, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #powell, #interestrates, #rates, #earnings, #midterms, #elections, #cpi, #fedpivot, #shortsqueeze, #bulltrap, #nfp, #nonfarmpayrolls, #jobs, #pmi, #ism
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
1
DXY will find support above 103.70As the global economy continues to recoil after the US Fed rate increase - watch for the USD/DXY to find support above 103.70 and flag sideways/higher over the next 15+ weeks. I suspect any continued Fed rate increases will put further pressure on global markets/currencies and drive foreign investment in USD assets throughout 2023. Yes, the US economy is contracting - which is exactly what the Fed wants (breaking inflationary trends). But, that does not mean the US economy is CRASHING. What is happening is the strength of the US economy/USD is creating a capital-shift we've not seen since the early 2011~2013 bottom. Foreign investors are rushing away from risk - towards safety, security, & ROI. That means they are seeking the safest, strongest economy on the planet, with the best chance of ROI. I believe that is the US economy (the strongest on the planet) which is currently ON SALE at a 40% to 70% discount. Pay attention.
TVC:DXYLong
by BradMatheny
Morning Update: A Push Lower to Complete then Higher? In the overnight session, SPX Futures drifted lower in what I’m counting as minor wave 2 or b of minor c of larger “a”. The expected spot for this drift lower to complete is between the 4040-4020 area. From there we should trade higher and eventually this week get into the target box for our larger “a” wave top. Currently I would like to see this eventual move higher reconcile in the 4158 area. However, we will see what shape this potential advance has as we approach the target box. I am observing the EOM Dec 4300 ES Calls to short to close out my year end. If this was October or even November, I would be more inclined to take an outright short of the contract. This is a more conservative means to closing out the 2022 books then an outright position. Let’s see what today brings and I’ll update this evening after the close. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
ES as long as 4084-93 holds, it has a good setup for a strongES as long as 4084-93 holds, it has a good setup for a strong down! Tomorrow should produce a buyable bottom for a rally on Tuesday. Full Moon is on the 8th, usually marks top or a bottom. So far its in topping process. Can it correct through time and move higher into EOY, very possible Ideally we see a low mid Dec (my ideal low is at 3750), that would be a perfect setup for a long trade going into EOY and Jan high. That high alone can get above 4200, can be a great ride. Will need to do some homework on my SPX chart and check if we can get that ABC move up into Jan high. One thing is I have a good confidence is that month of Jan will be a very strong selling/red month. So early Jan high will be a perfect short imo
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RealTima
SPY Cycle Patterns for Dec 5 thru 9 - A Flat Sideways Melt-upI love the fact that traders are messaging me asking questions regarding my SPY Cycle Patterns. Thank you. I hope all of you are starting to see some value from my research and using it to profit from some of these moves higher. Right now, and probably until next week (Dec 12 of later), the markets will probably slide into a fairly volatile sideways melt-up phase. I'm expecting a 4 to 6%+ volatility range over the next 7+ trading days before some catalyst sends the markets higher. I've listed all the SPY Cycle Patterns for December below. I've highlighted the key days (**) that I believe will create a bias trend in December. The other patterns may still represent upward trending and volatility. 12/1/2022 Flat-Down 12/2/2022 Harami-Inside 12/3/2022 Tmp-Btm-102 12/4/2022 GAP22 Potential ** 12/5/2022 12/6/2022 Top 12/7/2022 Flat-Down 12/8/2022 Break-Away 12/9/2022 Carryover 12/10/2022 Tmp-Btm-102 ** 12/11/2022 Top/Resistance21 12/12/2022 Consol-210 12/13/2022 Tmp-Btm-102 ** 12/14/2022 GAP-Reversal 12/15/2022 Breakdown201 12/16/2022 Break-Away ** 12/17/2022 Carryover 12/18/2022 Inside-Breakaway 12/19/2022 POP ** 12/20/2022 12/21/2022 Top/Resistance 12/22/2022 Flat-Down 12/23/2022 MntmRally-012 ** 12/24/2022 GapUp-Lower 12/25/2022 Rotation 12/26/2022 GAP-Reversal 12/27/2022 Breakdown201 12/28/2022 MntmRally-012 ** 12/29/2022 GapUp-Lower 12/30/2022 Top 12/31/2022 Flat-Down
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
How is a forecast a forecast, and not a guess?Since the days of town squares, and town markets...there has always been this intellectual battle between the market sellers and the buyers. One party sets up shop with the intent of making a profit through selling something of true or perceived value to another party who may (or may not) have a perceived value or use for the seller's wares. It is simultaneously the simplest of relationships, and one of the most complex. The attributes that govern such transactions are emotion, education, salesmanship and instinct. The transactional forces itself are so interesting to me...A book could written about it. In fact, an entire industry exists right now on the millions of books, videos and lessons, that have been authored on such an in-depth topic. However, I'm NOT writing today to inform you how best to sell your wares. Nor I am taking time out of my weekend to educate you on how to "one-up" those wiley sellers... when buying. All of the machinations of this transactional relationship have played out countless times, and so much so , that they're now incredibly predictable. I wonder if anything else can be discovered as it pertains to the choreography of the buyer and seller. But when making a prediction on outcomes, is there a process? Is their a discipline to spot success, and or, failure? I believe so. There are many things that happen within our natural world that no one could be criticized for thinking they are random occurrences. The leaf that falls from the tree. Which leaf? Where that leaf falls on the ground. Directly below the tree, or is their a wind that influences it? Is it possible that much of what we observe in the natural world as random, is in fact, predictable? Forecasting the weather with accuracy has approved greatly in the last 20 years alone. Just talk to a natural gas trader...who in my opinion could fill in as a meteorologist anywhere in a local TV market. Why is that? Because to trade natural gas, one must be a part-time weather man. To trade crude oil, one must become a geopolitical connoisseur. There are all kinds of attributes a specialized trader must acquire given the market of their specialty. However, one art is forgotten. Less appreciated. Because our society is conditioned to be impatient...given no value. The art of observation... and might I add my own suffix...without action. The art of observation, without action. This practice allows for education, allows for experience, allows for confirmation without consequences. In and around 1940-1941, RN Elliott stated that the Dow (which just 11 years earlier lost 70% of it's value) was about to embark on a bull market rally that would last 70 years. Having endured the great depression, on the cusp of the USA entering WWII with the attack on Pearl Harbor by the Japanese...can you imagine how that market forecast was received? Below...please find the aftermath of his ridiculous claim. During the time his proclamations was made, no one had the benefit of hindsight. Suffice to say he was ridiculed. Now in retrospect, he was conservative in his forecast. Because the 2009-2010 area of the SPX would have been where he concluded this rally would end...and the market was higher by almost 800% from 2009-2022. Therefore, with hindsight, no one would NOW argue his guess was in fact, a forecast. A forecast based on a process, steeped in discipline. I'll conclude with the main chart above and simply say. I too am making a proclamation. I am now authoring a forecast...I too (Like Elliott then) believe I have a process and a discipline to back my statement...but you have to decide. The above chart represents within the next 3-6 years PLANET EARTH COULD LOSE HALF ITS GLOBAL NET WORTH...OR MORE. I will concede it's human nature to ridicule what is not understood. As a species we have a long documented history of such behavior. It is also precisely why my success is based on you, the reader, and your predictable failure to not consider the above, a reality. To dismiss this proclamation. Having said all the above, can I request you do one thing that will not require much effort? Snip this chart and save it. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
23