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Special Update: Is it too early to claim victory?...AGAIN.In last night's thought experiment I wrote: "So here it is: Tonight in the overnights we will continue to meander but with a slight downward bias. Post 7am we will be south of 4050 in the ES. Jobs Friday comes along at 830am tomorrow morning...and a possible spike down to 4005-4037 and then slowly by 1030am EST...the Upside starts. We end the day flat, slightly down or slightly GREEN on the day. Tomorrow ends up being a big nothing burger." We still have the entire day to go....but I'll let my followers make the call. PS: I posted on the Thought Experiment that I closed my short 3 ES contracts at 4092.75 at 4012 for 80.75 points within 24 hours for $12,000 in profits. Here's hoping for a great December in the markets. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
13
Special Update: Thought Experiment for Jobs FridayI can't quite figure out if my followers really like me...or they are eager to hang me out to dry. An analyst is only as good as their forecasts...To forecast micro machinations in the largest index on planet Earth...some would say is a kin to throwing darts, rolling the bones, playing the slots. I, on the other hand, am a proponent of Elliott Wave Theory. I may be in fact, one of the most aggressive proponents of this form of analysis. I have tried (and unfortunately failed) forecasting my wife's response to certain hot button topics, using EWT. Suffice to say....I didn't work...and I was ushered into the dog house soon afterwards. But if I have one passion, one goal above most others, I want to pass along my passion for what I think is the single greatest forecasting tool for traders when trading for profit. I haven't met in person a single one of my followers here on tradingview.com...but that doesn't mean I do not care about those faceless individuals. I am committed to you guys...and after January 3rd...I hope our relationship can grow to the next level. But when you lay down a challenge, and it's a big one, and the followers come through (not exactly but close enough) ....well, you have to produce. You have to stick your neck out. You have to risk it all...because it's the right thing to do. Let's rehash. A Thought Experiment as defined by the Google Machine as simply..."an experiment carried out only in the imagination." It's like asking a person to imagine to the outcome if they were to do this or that, or not do this or that. It's imaginative. So here it is: Tonight in the overnights we will continue to meander but with a slight downward bias. Post 7am we will be south of 4050 in the ES. Jobs Friday comes along at 830am tomorrow morning...and a possible spike down to 4005-4037 and then slowly by 1030am EST...the Upside starts. We end the day flat, slightly down or slightly GREEN on the day. Tomorrow ends up being a big nothing burger. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
13
Evening Update: The ES is following the ideal path but......the all my DM's I received today are about me posting a "thought experiment" for Jobs Friday. My followers are high maintenance...lol. So...once again...if I'm gonna put myself out there for potential public ridicule with forecasting such a short term move in the US stock markets...I need my followers to do some work and put themselves on the line as well. IF MY FOLLOWERS CAN DRUM UP 50 RESPONSES TO THIS ES POST THAT SAYS SIMPLY..."DO IT CHRIS"...then I will no choice but to do a thought experiment for Jobs Friday. If you guys can put in the work...You will force my hand and I will post precisely what will happen before, during and after the jobs report hits the wires. PS: But no cheating guys...LOL. Last time we had people trying to sign up for multiple profiles on Trading View to post their response. IF YOU CAN GET ME 50 RESPONSES SAYING "DO IT CHRIS"...I WILL HAVE NO CHOICE. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
25
Morning Update: Now things get Interesting Yesterday’s morning update, Entitled, ”Are we about to get Clarity?” I outlined in the chart we had to hold the trend line support for this larger LD I’m tracking, and not only did we hold right where price should’ve, we rocketed higher in what SHOULD BE the a-wave of 5 of larger “a”. I say SHOULD BE, because price can be sneaky. I am expecting a 3-wave move into my target box. We have that. If price fails to get above 4096, this could be the end of this pattern. Some of the most common mistakes Elliotitions make, is waiting for ideal patterns to form. I too, am prone to do this...but in the real world of trading, text book a-b-c's and 5-wave patterns do not always play out cleanly. Because of that possibility I have opened up an initial short position at 4092.75 of 3 ES contracts. However, it is my expectation we will breach 4096 today for a micro 5 up for the completion of our "a" wave, and then come down in a corrective looking decline for our “b” of 5, only to go higher one more time and tag 4158 but should be no higher than 4175. At no time, should price consolidate, meander and break this upward trend channel it has been in since 3502. If that does occur, this will be a sign this move higher is over. As of now with a 4096 high, I am expecting that price will come down into the 3799 area, and possibly as low as 3629 area for our target area for our larger “b” wave bottom. With the possibility of such a decline, you can see why I am giving this trade a stop 70 points higher initially. Currently with my stop so high, I'M RISKING $1 TO MAKE $5. 1:5 RR. Here’s my plan. Since this is probably my last trade of size this year. My stop currently is 4165. However, if price does correctively decline into the area I've outlined above in the micro chart, and the decline is clearly corrective, I will close my short for the profits on the table, and restrike higher anticipating that c of 5 will tag the 4158 area. If this decline is clearly impulsive and for any reason trades below 3975...then I will stick with only 3 contracts being short, anticipating I'll close around the 3799 area. First things first: 1. Lets trade above 4096 TODAY 2. Lets decline correctively into the mid 4,000 region over the course of the next several days 3. Lets rally back above the "a" wave of 5 high that we should strike today 4. Lets tag 4158 sometime next week or soon afterwards. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
10
Spx wedge break overnightThey broke over the wedge on futures, so I expect a retest and then higher. With Powell speaking today, a sudden spike down could occur but I still think the 18ma weekly and daily at about 3920-3900 would hold the price as support - no guarantees though. There's a gap on futures at 4020 which should get filled soon, from there it's possible we have ANOTHER move down to complete a triangle or we just get that higher wave 5 over with. These events are hard to anticipate, so please be careful. I'll be away from my desk today, good luck!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by the_sunship
Evening Update: I am wanting to build a Large Short PositionToday, I finally got my OMH in the ES. We are in the target box, so I decided to open my first tranche of ES contracts on the short side. 11.30.22 -3 ES Short at 4092.75 Do I think this is the high? Probably not. Please note...I didn't say definitely not ...As you will know from my analysis I am forecasting a 3 wave move that could honestly challenge 4158-4175 area. But I do think this first portion of the move...the "a" wave is completing now. If you have followed me for more than a month you'll know I'll have a stop in place shortly. But I cannot rule out that what is occurring right now...is the entirety of the move. Several days I alluded to the fact that this trade may be the last trade of 2022 for me. I have about 22 trading days left to get my annual P&L as high as I can without taking undue risk. That's why reading my posts on the ES have probably been boring for the last week and half. JUST WAITING...AND WAITING. But you guys who follow me know...price has to come to me....not the other way around. So, waiting is my middle name. But only now has the futures index presented me with what I have been waiting for. So my goal is establish a 20 contract position. I have 17 left. In my analysis the worst this position can go against me is 4175. That's 80 points away. I hope to build my position within the context of my initial entry at 4092.75 and 4175. Once we begin our "b" wave decline I am looking for 3850 MINIMUM and more likely the low 3700's. that's over 240-390 points of downside from right here. So it is here where my focus becomes heightened. It is here where my analysis has to be spot on... IT IS HERE WHERE I MAKE MY 2022 P&L. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
8
Decisions must be made or repeat of past trendAt this area is where we have decided multiple times for the long term outlook of being bullish or extremely bearish. The last 3 times it created the "grey box" after seeing a supply rejection area (orange box), it made a huge move down to test the lows. Now it is back to that major supply area and if it repeats history like the past 2 grey box retests, you can expect a move down. If it blows past the grey box, i would be on a bullish side outlook with buying the dips at past demand areas or prior resistances. Based on extremely recent news this might breach the grey box but it is still worth looking at with a more lenient stop loss for shorting if you are looking to enter to the downside.
AMEX:SPY
by vietuser619
The Santa Rally Continues - Don't get stuck in Perma-Bear modeFar too many people got burned over the past 24 hours by betting the FARM on the Fed coming out Hawkish. I was chatting with a guy on Twitter last week about his call for a deep selling phase (possibly reaching COVID lows) in the US markets. His followers got burned by today's move (some really badly). You have to shift with the market trends and prepare for the unexpected. My research kept my followers away from risks and has been pointing towards a Wave-5 rally setting up in the US markets for many months. I use my Custom Indexes to get a better "feel" for how the markets are reacting to various inputs/outcomes. My Rotational Modeling system has been cautious for more than 14+ months - off only -6% for 2022. Many other Hedge funds are off by at much as -40% to -60%. Days like today, if you were lucky enough to survive them, will teach you a few lessons... Don't get married to a trend Protect capital at all times READ THE DATA - not the emotions Price can fool you - so protect your position. Follow my research.. Or, at least, check out my content before you decide to place your trade. Check out my SPY Cycle Pattern posts. Ask questions if you have them. This move isn't over yet.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
Morning Update: Are we about to get CLARITY? Morning Update: Are we about to get CLARITY? I do think we need the index to clear up some thing for us traders. Possibly that will come today. Let’s start with the bigger picture on the daily chart. In my primary black count, I still believe, in the very short term, we need higher before we go lower. My reasoning behind this is: Off the October 3502 bottom we have an overlapping advance. That advance is best counted as an (a), (b) with a (c) of a slightly higher to complete this structure. That would be where our a=c or the 1.0 extension of the move off of 3502 resides at 4154.75. We are not there yet. Therefore, I believe we have work to do to fill in these final machinations of our a-wave. As you can see from the above chart, I am counting this as we are in SC wave IV. I am doing so, because we had our opportunity to breach the 3502 with OML and that would’ve been a completed pattern on positive divergence. We didn’t do that. Therefore, I am of the mindset we didn’t do that because we are a long way from completing our pattern within this given cycle of the index. If I’m right and this is a Supercycle consolidation, we will not complete our A wave till end of next year, maybe even the beginning of 2024. Red Count back on chart The red count, of which I am not a fan of , portends we are about to drop in the larger C wave of cycle iv which could approach the COVID-19 bottom. I have it on the chart because if this is the intended path price is to follow...it should be starting soon. If this happens, price should head to challenge 3502 almost directly. This would be a third wave so this downward move would be brutal, constant, with little entry for both shorts and longs. To the degree this doesn’t happen I will remove the red count alternative. Intraday Chart Intraday, my count has not changed. We can come down into the 3912.50 area again...but we will need a 3-wave advance to complete this “a” wave. The current area of consolidation doesn’t appear impulsive to the downside, so it’s hard for me to believe we are done with the short-term upside. Therefore I will reiterate, we need this micro 4 to complete with OMH to cap off our "a" wave of larger B. Contingency If price breaks 3900, then I will have to concede my intraday count is wrong and this “a” could be over. This would mean we may be in our b wave decline, or the depending on the aggressive nature of the decline, RED Count Wave 3. Let’s see what the rest of the week provides us with respect to clues. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch