Weekly Market Forecast SP500 NASDAQ DOW: Short Term BUYS!In this video, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, AND DOW JONES Futures for the week of March 24 - 28th. We'll determine the bias for the upcoming week, and look for the best potential setups.
The equity markets have been choppy lately, but this week may be different. The economic calendar shows a smooth week ahead, as there are no NFP, FOMC, or similarly volatile news ahead to potentially reverse a market out of the blue. The indices show potential to break consolidation and move upwards. So we wait until there are definitive market structure shifts to occur, acting as confirmations.
Only then do we pounce!
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May profits be upon you.
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S&P 500 E-Mini Futures
S&P 500 Setting Up for a Breakout – But Not Before One More TrapAs I’ve said before, the FOREXCOM:SPX500 is a key reference for my crypto trading . That’s why I sat down and took a closer look at the chart – and I’m now ready to place a limit order , based on what I’m seeing.
I believe we’re still in a correction phase , and it’s far from over . However, I think it’s realistic that we’ll see a move toward $5,832 next week . Before that happens, I expect either today’s Monday Low or next week’s Previous Weekly Low to get swept, ideally triggering a dip into the 12-hour Fair Value Gap just below.
That’s where I see my entry zone forming. It’s also the exact area where Wave B overshoots the starting point of Wave ABC, making it a clean Flat correction pattern, with Wave C completing to the downside before we get a solid move upward.
I’m setting my stop-loss below the $5,500 low. If this setup plays out, I expect the S&P to push toward $5,832 , and after that, I’m anticipating a larger correction that could take the index back down to $5,500 or even $5,450 over the coming weeks.
Timing remains unclear for that move after, but the structure is here , and I’m looking forward to seeing how it plays out.
Spy Outlook - Two Key Scenarios to Watch this WeekHello everyone, I’m theCafeTrader — hope you all had a great weekend.
Currently, SPY is sitting near the tail end of a supply zone around 569.57 . So far, it hasn’t shown strong conviction to push through this area, which likely reflects a lack of buying interest rather than heavy absorption by sellers.
In this post, I’ve outlined two scenarios for how you might approach trading SPY this week. As you’ve probably noticed, we’re sitting right in the middle of the broader range . I’ve marked out both light and heavy supply and demand zones — these will be critical for spotting clean entry opportunities.
Remember, liquidity moves markets , and we want to be on the right side of the move with strong entries.
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Scenario 1: Break Above Supply
If we open or gap above the current supply , and price holds that level , I can see SPY pushing up toward 584 , encountering some light supply on the way.
The play might look like this:
• SPY runs up to 576 , hesitates slightly (possible minor rejection),
• Finds a bidder and continues to 584 , where heavier selling pressure is likely waiting.
That would be the ideal short entry , with a little room for volatility, aiming for a move back down into a new demand zone (not yet formed or shown here).
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Scenario 2: Rejection and Roll Over
If we reject this supply zone and roll over , watch for price to cut through demand again and test the big buyers near 549.50 .
I’m especially interested in longs in that area. Even if price dips a bit further, there’s extreme demand at 540 , though I’d prefer to keep a tight stop so I can reposition quickly if needed.
From there, I think we could catch a strong bid and rally back up to 584 .
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If you found this helpful, please give it a boost and follow — I chart and post updates daily.
Also, YouTube is coming soon with live breakdowns and deeper analysis — stay tuned!
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 03/18/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 03/18/2025
📈5740. 5760
📉5680. 5660
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
S&P 500 E-mini Futures VWAP Breakout Strategy Sharing a solid intraday idea for you all – something I’ve been running on the S&P 500 E-mini Futures (30-min chart) lately, and it’s been delivering clean setups.
VWAP Breakout Play
I’m focusing on simple VWAP-based breakouts. Here’s the breakdown:
The setup:
• Wait for price to break above or below the VWAP with strong momentum (big candles + solid volume).
• I always confirm with a momentum indicator like MACD or RSI to filter out the noise.
Entries:
• Breakout Long: When price pushes above VWAP + momentum aligns.
• Breakout Short: When price dumps below VWAP + momentum confirmation.
Exits & Stops:
• Scale out at session highs/lows or key pivots.
• Stop-loss goes just beyond VWAP to keep the risk tight.
• If momentum fades, I’m out.
Why I like it:
VWAP attracts institutional flow, and combining it with momentum gives this strategy a solid edge, especially around U.S. session opens when volatility kicks in.
Give it a try and tweak it to your liking!
S&P500: Bottom is in. Strong 5month rally ahead.S&P500 is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 38.840, MACD = -92.170, ADX = 55.129) as it hasn't crossed above the 4H MA50 or the 1D MA50 yet. Still, it did price the bottom on the HL trendline of its 2year Channel Up. The 4H MACD formed however a new Bullish Cross on the LH trendline, same as the October 31st 2023 HL bottom. As the market did then (October 2023), the 4H Death Cross that took place last week, happened exactly at the bottom and the 0.618 Fibonacci of the previous HL. We are still bullish and our target remains the -0.618 Fib (TP = 6,900).
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S&P - Will we follow 2020/2021?The S&P has been trading in a rising pattern for over 700 days, similar to the rising pattern observed in 2020 and 2021. In that instance, the price of the S&P broke below the support trendline and lost all SMA support, while also making a lower low. This has not occurred since the start of the current pattern. Could a deeper correction follow?
Blue line = 50-day MA
Red line = 100-day MA
Yellow line = 200-day MA
Analysis of the 2020/2021 Price Action
We can conclude the following five points:
1. The rising wedge lasted for nearly 700 days.
2. The price consistently made higher highs and higher lows.
3. The S&P found support on the SMAs and never broke below the 200-day MA.
4. After approximately 700 days, the S&P broke below the rising wedge, lost all key SMA support, and made a lower low.
5. During the retest of the rising wedge and key SMAs (which had turned into resistance), a bearish cross (50-day SMA below the 100-day SMA) occurred, leading to a downtrend.
How Does the 2020/2021 Price Action Correlate to 2023/2024?
We can conclude the following five points:
1. The rising wedge lasted for approximately 750 days.
2. The price continued making higher highs and higher lows.
3. The S&P found support on the SMAs and never broke below the 200-day SMA.
4. After around 750 days, the S&P broke below the rising wedge, lost all key SMA support, and made a lower low.
5. A bearish cross between the 50-day SMA and the 100-day SMA is currently forming.
When we overlay the bar pattern of the 2021 bearish price action onto the current chart, it suggests that a revisit to 4,750 is possible. This level is both a technical support and the point where the S&P started its downtrend in 2021.
Conclusion
Will the S&P follow the 2021 price action, resulting in a sustained downtrend, or will it reclaim all lost SMA levels and continue its uptrend? The price action suggests that there is a real possibility of weakness in the coming months.
ES futures update 18/03/'25In today's market update, I maintain a neutral stance. While we saw a breakout yesterday, price has since been rejected at the 1-hour resistance. The key area I'm watching is the 4-hour demand zone.
Since the overall trend on higher timeframes remains bearish, I plan to wait until price reaches this level—I'm cautious about entering long positions. If price clearly rejects bullishly from the 4-hour demand zone, I will go long.
However, if the 4-hour demand zone breaks down, I'll look for a short position on a retest of this zone.
ES Morning Update March 18thYesterday, the plan for ES was straightforward: rally to ~5755 (adjusted for the June contract, previously 5703 on March) to back-test the 3-month megaphone breakdown from last Monday. The market followed through with an 88-point rally to that level before selling off.
As of now:
• 5720 (reclaimed) and 5698 are key supports
• Holding above keeps 5739 and a second test of 5754 in play
• If 5698 fails, look for selling pressure toward 5668
S&P500 Channel Down broken. Will the 4H MA50 sustain an uptrend?The S&P500 index (SPX) broke above both its 1-month Channel Down and 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) yesterday and more importantly is so far keeping the price action sideways above it.
This is an indication that it may flip it from previously a Resistance, into Support. The signal for this bullish trend reversal came first (and a very timely one) by the 4H RSI, which formed Higher Lows against the price's Lower Lows on March 13, a clear Bullish Divergence. That turned out to be the bottom.
Now that bullish break-out has been confirmed, we expect a quick test of the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. Our short-term Target is 5900.
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MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 03/17/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 03/17/2025
📈5660. 5680
📉5600. 5580
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
S&P500 First bullish break out after a monthS&P500 crossed today above both the 1 month Channel Down and the MA200 (1h).
The latter was intact since February 21st.
The MA100 (1h) has the potential to turn now into the short term Support.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 5900 (the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level).
Tips:
1. The market just formed a MA50/100 (1h) Bullish Cross. The first since Feb 13th.
Please like, follow and comment!!
ES futures update 17/03/'25Last week, I mapped out some trading zones that are still valid and unchanged.
The 4H supply zone has broken out, so I will be looking for a long position after a retest of this broken supply zone, which should now act as support.
My last trade was a short from this zone, resulting in a small profit since market closing prevented reaching the full take-profit target.
Let's see if the bullish momentum can hold during the retest entry.
As always, follow for more market updates.
ES Morning Update March 17thOn Thursday, ES reclaimed 5558, triggering a long setup that led to a rare green day. The 5645 target was hit on Friday after a strong trend day. With that momentum, today is likely to be more complex—hold runners.
As of now:
• 5599, 5615 are key supports
• Tests of 5599 and recoveries of 5615 are actionable setups
• Holding above keeps 5644, 5666+ in play
• If 5599 fails, expect selling pressure to increase
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 03/14/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 03/14/2025
📈5600 5640
📉5560 5520
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ES Morning Update March 14thYesterday was all about 5558 in ES. After a drop to 5512 support, bulls needed to reclaim 5558 for upside. That level was tested twice before a sell-off, but once it cleared at 8:30 PM, buyers stepped in, pushing the market +20 points higher.
As of now:
• 5598, 5615 are the next upside levels as long as 5558 (now weaker) holds
• A break below 5558 opens the door for a drop to 5548, then 5533
S&P500 Index Goes 'DRILL BABY DRILL' Mode due to Tariffs BazookaThe Trump administration's aggressive use of tariffs — we termed at @PandorraResearch Team a "Tariff' Bazooka" approach due to their broad, unilateral application — has exerted significant downward pressure on the S&P 500 index through multiple channels. These include direct impacts on corporate profitability, heightened trade war risks, increased economic uncertainty, and deteriorating market sentiment.
Direct Impact on Corporate Earnings
Tariffs raise costs for U.S. firms reliant on imported inputs, forcing them to either absorb reduced profit margins or pass costs to consumers. For example, intermediate goods like steel and aluminum—key inputs for manufacturing—face steep tariffs, squeezing industries from automakers to construction. Goldman Sachs estimates every 5-percentage-point increase in U.S. tariffs reduces S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) by 1–2%. The 2025 tariffs targeting Canada, Mexico, and China could lower EPS forecasts by 2–3%, directly eroding equity valuations6. Additionally, retaliatory tariffs from trading partners (e.g., EU levies on bourbon and motorcycles) compound losses by shrinking export markets.
Trade Escalation and Retaliation
The EU’s threat to deploy its Anti-Coercion Instrument—a retaliatory tool designed to counter trade discrimination—could trigger a cycle of tit-for-tat measures. For instance, Canada and Mexico supply over 60% of U.S. steel and aluminum imports, and tariffs on these goods disrupt North American supply chains. Retaliation risks are particularly acute for S&P 500 companies with global exposure: 28% of S&P 500 revenues come from international markets, and prolonged trade wars could depress foreign sales.
Economic Uncertainty and Market Volatility
The U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (FED website link added for learning purposes) surged to 740 points early in March 2025, nearing levels last seen during the 2020 pandemic. Historically, such spikes correlate with a 3% contraction in the S&P 500’s forward price-to-earnings ratio as investors demand higher risk premiums. Trump’s inconsistent tariff implementation—delaying Mexican tariffs after negotiations but accelerating others—has exacerbated instability. Markets reacted sharply: the S&P 500 fell 3.1% in one week following tariff announcements, erasing all post-election gains.
Recession Fears and Sector-Specific Pressures
Tariffs have amplified concerns about a U.S. recession. By raising consumer prices and disrupting supply chains, they risk slowing economic growth—a fear reflected in the S&P 500’s 5% decline in fair value estimates under current tariff policies. Industries like technology (dependent on Chinese components) and agriculture (targeted by retaliatory tariffs) face acute pressure. For example, China’s tariffs on soybeans and pork disproportionately hurt rural economies, indirectly dragging down broader market sentiment.
Long-Term Structural Risks
Studies show tariffs fail to achieve their stated goals. MIT research found Trump’s 2018 steel tariffs did not revive U.S. steel employment but caused job losses in downstream sectors8. Similarly, the 2025 tariffs risk accelerating economic decoupling, as firms diversify supply chains away from the U.S. to avoid tariff risks. This structural shift could permanently reduce the competitiveness of S&P 500 multinationals.
Conclusion
In summary, Trump’s tariff strategy has destabilized equity markets by undermining corporate profits, provoking retaliation, and fueling macroeconomic uncertainty.
Overall we still at @PandorraResearch Team are Bearishly calling on further S&P 500 Index opportunities with further possible cascading consequences.
The S&P 500’s recent slump reflects investor recognition that tariffs act as a tax on growth—one with cascading consequences for both domestic industries and global trade dynamics.
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Best 'Drill Baby, Drill' wishes,
@PandorraResearch Team 😎
S&P500: Bottom of 2 year Channel. Target 6900.S&P500 is oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 27.644, MACD = -113.480, ADX = 60.232) as the price didn't only cross under the 1D MA200 but is also almost at the bottom of the 2 year Channel Up. In the meantime, the price reached the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level while the 1D MACD touched its LH trendline. The last time all those conditions were met at the same time was on the October 30th 2023 Low. What followed was a massive rally to the -0.618 Fib extension before the next 1D MA50 pullback. This is a unique opportunity to buy and aim for the -0.618 Fib (TP = 6,900).
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