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S&P 500 E-Mini Futures

PacMan Trend Symbol; Guidance into PCE and Next WeekThe video explains it all a lot better, but basically, we are sitting with higher highs and lower lows on the trend timeframes that brought us here (30m-4hr), otherwise known as the Pac-Man symbol. Trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract) 30m - 5083 Uptrend (4/25/2024) Higher High 1Hr - 5083 Uptrend (4/25/2024) Higher High 2Hr - 5131 Uptrend (4/25/2024) Higher High 3Hr - 5123 Uptrend (4/25/2024) Higher High 4Hr - 5131 Uptrend (4/25/2024) Higher High 6Hr - 5250 Downtrend (4/2/2024) Higher Low 12Hr - 5204 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Higher Low Daily - 5166 Downtrend (4/12/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High Monthly - 5304 Uptrend (03/31/2024) Higher High If we move directly higher from here, the 6hr is going to be a lower high, but it will be the lone trend calling for a lower movement, as when the 12hr and Daily strike, we will have a higher high. I did not account for us to drop so harshly from GDP data yesterday, and certainly didn't expect that drop to fizzle out and us to push higher over after this occurred. This is why I almost never short into Earnings season. Economic Calendar; PCE Data is today. I foresee it pushing us lower, but not with enough confidence to blindly trade short into it. Major next issue is the Fed Meeting on Wednesday of next week. Overall, likely just missed opportunity from not going short at the close of Wednesday and catching most of the move back down yesterday, although I likely would have let at least half the profit reverse before I jumped out anyways. I expect I'm going to miss out on a drop today, but without trend confirmation I just don't feel strongly enough about shorting into this PCE data at this point. I made some good trades earlier, so I'm fine with it, and I still have Gold Long from 2305 and my Soy contracts are FINALLY starting to generate some revenue at around $1500 each. Safe trading, and remember your risk management.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
S&P500 4H Channel Up aiming higher.This is a short-term outlook on the S&P500 (SPX) following yesterday's Fed Rate Decision. The short-term pattern on the 4H time-frame is a Channel Up and is giving us some important developments. Even though yesterday's attempt to stay above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) failed, the index managed to stay on the Channel Up bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) and is since rising steadily on green 4H candles, attempting to form a bottom (Higher Low). A closing above the 4H MA50 can be the bullish confirmation this pattern needs but outside of it, we see the Ichimoku Cloud turning green again for the first time since April 09. If the 4H MACD completes the emerging Bullish Cross, we will have a strong bullish mix in our hands and most likely the Channel Up will go first for a 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) test, since last time it was rejected on the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) and eventually complete a +4.00% Bullish Leg (like the previous one) at 5200. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
SPY gave us a solid sell. Is it still bearish?Last time we looked at SPY (April 11, see chart below), we got what we wanted, a break below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) that met our exact bearish expectation which was a -5.93% decline, absolutely symmetrical with August 18 2023: As the subsequent rebound got rejected on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line on the chart above), the question is the following: Is SPY still bearish? Technically, yes as long as it closes weekly (1W) candles below the 1D MA50. But at the same time, being supported on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line on the chart above), keeps short term neutral/ ranged thus the expectations for a bullish break-out live. But it has to close above the 1D MA50 to confirm that. As you can see, a comparison with recovery patterns following systemic Cycle corrections like the one in 2022, offers valuable conclusions. Basically, since the 2009 bottom of the U.S. Housing Crisis, the three major corrections of the current Cycle, have followed similar patterns (2011 - 2013, 2015 - 2017 and 2022 - 2024). The key common characteristic is that the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) has been the major Support. After two pull-backs that hit the 1W MA50 straight after the correction's bottom, both the 2011 - 2013 and 2015 - 2017 fractals made a smaller pull-back (green Rectangle) that hit the 1D MA100. It appears that this is where the index is currently at. If this correlation continues to hold and the index won't dive further to the 1W MA50, it might hit the 2.0 Fibonacci extension as its first Target, which is what the other two fractals aimed at. That is at 555.00. Notice also the similarities between the 1W RSI patterns. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
AMEX:SPY
by TradingShot
1
S&P500 (ES1!, SPX500, SP500) From Bullish to BEARISH1. Price swept a lot of low resistance lows with this bearish impulse, and created a new Swing Low. This is the External move. 2. Price retraced to the -FVG, a premium PD Array. This is an Internal Range Liquidity move. Expecting price to wick up past the PDH, but close inside the -FVG, and potentially end the retracement. Bearish PA should follow. Price is in premium prices now, as it crossed the Equilibrium of the trading range. Buys are not recommended until the price action shows a significant +BOS with a strong bullish close. LIKE, COMMENT or SUBSCRIBE if you like and want to see more analysis. Thank you for viewing!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by RT_Money
ES (S&P500)... Expecting a short term BULLISH Move!Bearish, but expecting a short term bullish move. Price has reached the 4th standard deviation, swept the LRLR, then mitigated the +OB. The expectation now is an External -> Internal LQ move. Wait/watch for signs of reversal from the current poi. I enjoy any feedback or questions in the comment section. All opinions are welcome! LIKE or BOOST this post, if you would. I would be appreciate it. SUBSCRIBE if you want to catch all of my future postings!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by RT_Money
1
S&P500 Quick buy trade.The S&P500 is approaching the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) to test it as a Resistance for the first time after the April 15 bearish break-out. It has already broken above the Bearish Megaphone, the 4H RSI has formed a Channel Up similar to the price action's and so far this sequence of events is fairly identical to the previous correction of August 2023. That sequence almost touched the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level before pulling back again, so we have ourselves a solid short-term bullish target. In fact we are placing ours a little lower at 5150, which represents a +4.70% rise from the bottom as that is not only the % rise that the August 2023 rebound returned but will also make contact with the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
1
Trends in conflict; Earnings Likely to cause a short reboundSo again, I cashed out my trade just above 5000 as we fell last night following the Israel drone strike against Iran. Most of that dip appears to have resolved itself, at least for the moment, but those geopolitical issues will likely be crucial to the potential of a market fall in the coming days. I go into it in the video, but major Earnings are next week, and I expect the week to be typical which means we will rebound during the Earnings season, especially next week with major powerhouses reporting (Microsoft, Google, Tesla). If NVidia was reporting I'd suggest we could rise back up towards 5300, but they are not until the end of May. Trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract) 30m - 5040 Downtrend (4/18/2024) Lower High 1Hr - 5220 Downtrend (4/12/2024) Lower Low 2Hr - 5203 Downtrend (4/12/2024) Lower Low 3Hr - 5197 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Lower Low 4Hr - 5197 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Lower Low 6Hr - 5250 Downtrend (4/2/2024) Higher Low 12Hr - 5204 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Higher Low Daily - 5166 Downtrend (4/12/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High Monthly - 5304 Uptrend (03/31/2024) Higher High This shows lots of downward pressure, although several of the trends are a bit oversold as the 30m has managed to run away with the market. Economic Calendar; Nothing important today or the start of next week. GDP is next Thursday though and CPE is Friday. If I was to express some sentiment it would be Shorter Term - Neutral/Bearish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Bullish Long Term - Neutral Longer Term - Bullish ... if the above makes any sense! Oh, and yes, I still have those Soy contracts. They are worth a whopping $1200 after all this time. I may trade them in for some 6E contracts if I see that look like it could run back up to 1.10 any time soon. Safe trading, and remember your risk management! Safe trading, and remember your risk management!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
2
Bouhmidi-Bands and Overnight Session - Name of the Game The overnight range was the name of the game today. As mentioned earlier, we were looking for a potential break in either direction. After establishing the initial balance, we saw a test of the overnight session low (5019), which was successfully defended. Subsequently, buyers entered the market, leading to a push higher in $ES. This move broke the high of the overnight session (5036), confirming bullish momentum and surpassing the previous day high (5058) & upper #BouhmidiBand, reaching a peak at 1.3s BB (5074). In the last 1.5 hours, NYSE:ES retraced back within the Bouhmidi-Bands.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SalahBouhmidi
2
S&P500: 1D MA100 hit. Short term rebound at least to be expectedS&P500 is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 37.601, MACD = -44.800, ADX = 58.528) as it touched the 1D MA100 on Friday after more than 5 months. This calls for a short term rebound at least as every previous corrective wave inside the multi month Channel Up that approached the 1D MA100, it rebounded to at least the 0.618 Fibonacci level. Following our last short call, we are now turning long again (TP = 5,115). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
1
S&P weekly consolidation in progressAt the end of last week, sellers confirmed weekly consolidation by closing below the previous week's low. From now on, bears have control over the price on the weekly timeframe. We should monitor the progression of weekly lows and highs to see when things start to shift, but until then, we should trust the sellers. It is also notable that if we look at the futures chart ( CME_MINI:ES1! ), we can see that buyers were unable to close above the previous day's high for the last 10 trading days. If buyers want to regain control, this will be their first objective. Please note that the price is currently positioned near the previous month's low, which can provide an intermediate support level. If you’re planning to short the market, it is better to wait for a pullback or for a breakout with retest. Finally, if weekly consolidation will convert into monthly consolidation it will be a major win for bears. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYShort
by hermes_trisme
S&P 500: Time to turn around 📈The S&P500 dipped into our turquoise Target Zone (coordinates: 5025 – 4933 points) with its recent setback. The low of the turquoise wave 4 may have already been reached, but another downward move back into the Zone is still possible. If the index even falls below the support at 4864 points, the magenta wave Alt.(2) will head down into our next Target Zone (coordinates: 4727 – 4584 points). This alternative scenario is 30% likely as of now.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by MarketIntel
Liquidity Crisis may happen, Market TOPPED OUTLiquidity Crisis may happen most of hedgefund did buying treasury bond and then treasury bond margin loan , so they made almost 50x leverage on bond market times over and over now only t-bill s gonna be recognized as collateral so t-bill market happend this method But NFP is too strong, FED didn't do Rate Cut now So t-bill is bubbled now, we are gonna kill it and stock market just knew there's plenty of liquidity until today Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked. So market topped out
TVC:NDQShort
by newjeansoldjean
5
Trends in conflict; Signs support "Sell in May and Walk Away"Trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract) 30m - 5111 Uptrend (4/17/2024) Lower High 1Hr - 5220 Downtrend (4/12/2024) Lower Low 2Hr - 5203 Downtrend (4/12/2024) Lower Low 3Hr - 5197 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Lower Low 4Hr - 5197 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Lower Low 6Hr - 5250 Downtrend (4/2/2024) Higher Low 12Hr - 5204 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Higher Low Daily - 5166 Downtrend (4/12/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High Monthly - 5304 Uptrend (03/31/2024) Higher High As explained in the video, the shorter-term trends are calling for lower moves, although the longer-term trends are violated and would be calling for a rebound. In spite of that conflict, I don't expect that rebound in the immediate future at this point. I go into a longer explanation, but overall I have been shorting the market, and currently have a Short position from 5200. I am looking for this position to hit around the 5000 mark, and then may cash out and wait and see what happens at that 5000 mark. I may look for a reversal position if we head near that area. The vibe is basically that Inflationary issues persist, geopolitical tension could cause chaos, and ultimately the US Economy is amazing and resilient. Next week we have major earnings though, so this short move lower could be done for and we could head into a rebound then, before heading lower or at least sideways once again going into May, as we see the old trading technique of "Sell in May and Walk Away" hold true. General Sentiment - Bearish Overall Sentiment - Bullish Safe Trading, and remember your risk management
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Volmageddon. Please Buckle Up. The Plane Will Be Landing SoonStocks are vulnerable to a 5% 'air-pocket drawdown' as greedy traders short volatility. Tuesday's stock-market pullback on February, 13 after a hot inflation report actually showed us something else about the market. It turns out that it did… an overcrowded short side of the options market which was reminiscent of the 2018 and 2020 'Volmageddon' events. ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF AMEX:SVXY graph says selling volatility is on the hot spot, like four and six years ago, in 2020 and 2018 respectively. The "Volmageddon" episode happened six years ago after traders piled into a bunch of ETFs that were designed to return the inverse of market volatility (essentially betting on a calm market). And when volatility went up in February 2018 and in February 2020, it tanked those strategies, sending the S&P 500 down more than 10% in two weeks. Investors appear to be taking risky bets again, specifically in VIX futures, which are assets that let investors bet on future volatility. As VIX futures expire, the S&P 500 is seeing stronger price reactions. Based on the magnitude of the move in VIX futures, there is an increasing threat that the rising level of greed in the 'short-volatility' trade, similar to what we saw in 2018 and in 2020, could result in an air-pocket drawdown of 5% or more in the S&P 500, to 4800 points respectively. The short-volatility trade became very popular strategy after 2010 when volatility was low, and traders could make money betting against market turbulence. The Cboe Volatility Index, which is also dubbed as the TVC:VIX or the market's "fear gauge," is sitting around 14, near historical lows. The rebound in interest in short-volatility strategies is once again posing a risk to the broader markets here as a negative catalyst can clearly spark a momentous, derivatives-driven selloff in the broader stock market like that which we saw in 2018 and in 2020. It's not a major concern right away as volatility upticks have been small, and the S&P 500 has remained resilient. The market shrugged off Tuesday's pullback quite fast. But it's worth keeping all your eyes on as all 2024 progress can be erased shortly. Going forward, these expirations will remain dates to keep in mind as the threat of volatility will be elevated as we move further into 2024. Technical graph for CBOE:SPX says we are still in the upside channel since Q4'22, near its upper line, with further perspective opportunities to erase 2024 gain, shrugging back to mid-line around 4800 points. Market breadth says also there're huge divergence in CBOE:SPX and in NASDAQ:NDX all the 2024, as 50-days indicators move firmly down all the year, while indices are still up so far.
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by Pandorra
4
S&P500 Dead-cat-bounce before one last bottom?Our last call on the S&P500 (SPX) couldn't have gone better as the Bearish Megaphone pattern we expected (April 05, see chart below) was eventually materialized and easily hit on Tuesday our 5050 Target: At the moment the index is below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been the main Support since November 03 2023 and is headed towards the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) above which the last two main Bearish Legs of the 19-month Channel Up made their first Dead-cat-bounce (March 02 and August 18 2023). As long as this dead-cat-bounce is contained below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, we see more likely one last corrective wave towards Support 1 and close to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). As long as at the time the 1D RSI is on its Support Zone, we will buy for the long-term and target the top of the 19-month Channel Up at 5400. If the price breaks above the 0.786, we will have a pattern invalidation and buy the break-out instead, targeting again 5400. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TradingShot
1
S&P500: First 4H Death Cross since August 14th 2023!S&P500 has formed today a Death Cross on the 4H timeframe after 8 months (August 14th 2023), turning bearish on the 1D technical outlook as well (RSI = 37.122, MACD = -81.00, ADX = 53.782) as yesterday it crossed under the 1D MA50 for the first time since November 3rd 2023. Both are technically very bearish developments and according to the last 4H Death Cross, we remain bearish until we complete at least a -5.87% decline (TP = 4,980). Observe how the symmetry among the two fractals is very strong, both the Death Cross and the 1D MA50 breakout were done around the same Fibonacci levels. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by InvestingScope
1
S&P500(US500):🔴Is it Bearish...?!🔴(Details on caption)By examining the ES1! 4-hour chart (S&P), we can figure out that, the market structure is bearish, so we looking for a sell position. In that case, the price had a bearish reaction to all of the bearish Pd Array, so we can expect a bearish reaction on the balance price range (BPR). In my perspective, sell-side liquidity is a draw on liquidity. Until this sell-side is not purging I don't think about buy position. 💡Wait for the update! 🗓️15/04/2024 🔎 DYOR 💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by VahidTradingCR
1
Aggressive rate cuts are off the tableThe SPX retreated nearly 3% from its all-time highs following last week’s print showing a higher-than-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2024. This marks a second consecutive month of accelerating CPI in the United States, which presents an obstacle for the FED in its more than two-year-long battle against inflation. Plus, it makes it increasingly unlikely that the central bank will engage in aggressive rate cutting as is still widely expected. Not only is it improbable that the FED will ease its monetary policy during the FOMC meeting between 30th April and 1st May 2024, but the latest print puts future rate cuts in jeopardy as well. Since the start of the hiking cycle, we have believed that it will be challenging for the FED to lower rates quickly. Thus far, this opinion has been supported by elevated and sticky inflation. Furthermore, rising prices of commodities make an arguably good case for this to stay true also in the upcoming months, tying FED’s hands for a little longer. In turn, this raises the chances of the central bank constricting the economy too much, leading to an economic accident. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of VIX. Yellow arrows indicate important technical developments in the past month. As the reality of no aggressive rate cuts is starting to sink in, there is a good chance that volatility will stay elevated in the near future. Illustration 1.02 The price of WTI crude oil rose nearly 20% this year. The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have been playing an important role in influencing its price over the past few months. If there is a broader conflict between Israel and Iran (which is at the highest odds in the past ten years), then oil could rise in the upper range between $90 and $100, putting further pressure on inflation. Illustration 1.03 The image above shows the SPX in the ascending channel. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish breakout below the upper bound of the channel. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bullish (stalling) *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
S&P500 Channel Down Top Sell Signal.The S&P500 index is trading inside a Channel Down. Every break over the MA50 (4h) forms its Lower High and is a sell signal. Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the current market price as it is over the MA50 (4h). Targets: 1. 5125 (expected contact with the MA50 1d). Tips: 1. The RSI (4h) is on a Rising Support, which is a Bullish Divergence in contrast with the Channel Down Lower Highs. This potentially indicates that after the MA50 test, the index may resume the long term bullish trend.. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TradingBrokersView
1