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S&P 500 E-Mini Futures

ES / SPY In A Correction Phase After A Measured MoveThree weeks prior, the market completed a bullish leg measured move. This pattern is significant as markets often exhibit a tendency to move in pairs, a phenomenon observable across all time frames. This behavior is rooted in the psychological aspects of market dynamics, wherein the market tends to repeat actions twice. This concept is underscored by market geometry, which includes two-legged pullbacks, measured moves, second entries, among others. The market recently reached 5256, a likely target for many traders, followed by the formation of an inside bar. This development has led to a three-week consolidation phase for ES as it assimilates the previous move before potentially initiating another. The bullish outlook remains intact as long as the price holds above 5126 on the weekly timeframe. The upcoming FOMC meeting adds an additional layer of significance to these levels, as they will likely determine whether a higher timeframe pullback ensues or if the current trend continues.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by AmpedTrading
S&P500 Testing the 4H MA50. Rejection or bullish breakout again?The S&P500 (SPX) broke on Friday below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which isn't yet a bearish confirmation as it has done so numerous time within December's Channel Up pattern. What would be a sell signal though, is getting rejected and fail to close a 4H candle above the 4H MA50 again. We will then look for the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and target Support 1 at 5050, where the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level along with the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) will provide the first Zone of Support for the short-term. If however the index does close a 4H candle above the 4H MA50, then the Channel Up pattern should continue and in that case we will buy and target 5185 (Resistance). Note though that the 4H RSI is trading within a Channel Down since the February 23 High, almost 1 month, which is a major Bearish Divergence against the price's Channel Up. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TradingShot
1
🔜 S&P 500. A key point between Bull Extension and Bear ReversalThe S&P 500 Index ( SPY) Wednesday closed down -0.22%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index DIA closed up +0.10%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index (QQQ) closed down -0.83%. Stocks Wednesday saw downward pressure from the +4.1 bp rise in the 10-year T-note and a sell-off of more than -2% in key chip stocks. However, the Dow Jones Industrials saw support from blue chips such as 3M (MMM), with a gain of +5.42%, and gains of more than +1% in Travelers (TRV), Chevron (CVX), Caterpillar (CAT), Home Depot (HD), NIKE (NKE), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Coca Cola (KO). Stocks on Wednesday gave back some ground after Tuesday’s +1.5% rally in the Nasdaq 100 index that was sparked by optimism that the U.S. Feb CPI report was not as bad as feared and the Feb core CPI dipped to a 2-3/4 year low of +3.8% y/y. However, the Feb headline CPI of +3.2% y/y was slightly above expectations of +3.1% and was 0.2 points above last June’s 2-3/4 year low of +3.0%. Both CPI measures remain well above the Fed’s +2% inflation target. Fed Breadcrumbs Fed Chair Powell said last week that the Fed is “not far” from having enough confidence to cut interest rates. However, the markets are discounting the odds at virtually zero that the Fed will cut interest rates at its meeting next week since inflation is still too far above target. The odds for a rate cut are much better for the June meeting. The markets are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 1% for next week’s March 19-20 FOMC meeting, 13% for the following meeting on April 30-May 1, and 73% for the meeting after that on June 11-12. Economic Reports In some positive news for the housing market, the MBA mortgage applications index rose +7.1% in the week ended March 8, after rising +9.7% in the previous week. Mortgage purchases rose +4.7%, and refinancings rose +12.2%. The MBA’s average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the latest week fell to a 5-week low of 6.84% from 7.02% in the previous week. The mortgage rate is currently only 13 bp above the 10-month low of 6.71% posted in December. On the U.S. economic report front, the markets are awaiting Thursday’s U.S. retail sales and PPI reports. Feb retail sales are expected to show an increase of +0.8% m/m, reversing Jan’s -0.8% decline. Feb retail sales ex-autos are expected to rise +0.5% m/m, reversing most of Jan’s -0.6% decline. The Feb final-demand PPI is expected to rise to +1.2% y/y from Jan’s +0.9%, but the core PPI is expected to ease to +1.9% y/y from Jan’s +2.0%. Interest Rates June 10-year T-notes (ZNM24) Wednesday closed down -7.5 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield rose by +4.1 bp to 4.192%, up from last Friday’s 5-week low of 4.034%. T-note prices saw weakness on (1) carry-over bearishness from Tuesday’s stronger-than-expected CPI report, and (2) Wednesday’s slight rise in the 10-year breakeven inflation expectations rate to 2.31%. T-note prices also saw supply overhang with the Treasury in the market again Wednesday, along with strong corporate bond issuance. The Treasury Wednesday sold $25 billion of 30-year T-bonds, after selling $54 billion of 3-year T-notes on Monday and $42 billion of 10-year T-notes on Tuesday. Inflation Fears Oil prices rose about 3% to a four-month high on Thursday (March 14) on a surprise withdrawal in US crude inventories reported on Wednesday (March 13), a bigger-than-expected drop in US petrol stocks and potential supply disruptions after recent terrorist Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. Putin says Ukraine trying to disrupt Russia's presidential election. Brent crude oil futures rose to nearly $85 per barrel - the highest mark since November, 2023. In technical terms, crude oil futures are on positive path in 2024 with near 9% YTD return, attempt to hold firmly above weekly SMA(52), while the epic triangle' breakthrough can be nearby. High Risk - High Reward S&P500 index (SPY) is on positive path in 2024 with +9.28% YTD return in this time. This is a 3rd highest YTD return by this time of year, next to 2012 and 2019 returns by mid-March. Technical graph for S&P500 indicates that we are near upper line of upside channel, thanks to recent Santa rally and slight signs of US Govt Treasuries buyout in Q4 2023. Following this path, there can a possible Bull extension, as Reversed Head-and-Shoulders Price Pattern can be in further development. On the other hand, inflation fears can extend also, just to erase all the Bullish gain in 2024.
AMEX:SPY
by Pandorra
S&P500 Overbought. Relief correction very probable.The S&P500 index (SPX) is trading at the top of the 17-month Channel Up with the 1W RSI overbought and at its highest (78.00) in more than 4 years (since January 2020). Once it breaks below its MA level (yellow trend-line), it will be a sell confirmation, which is the signal that flashed on February 20 2023 and July 31 2023. The minimum decline within this Channel Up pattern has been -5.84%, so our sell target is 4900. Then we will start buying again and if it drops more (i.e. below Support 1), we will reserve our last buy entry on Support 2 at 4665, which will still be marginally above the maximum decline of -10.96% and still within the Channel Up. After the correction, at any point the 1W RSI breaks above its MA again, it will be a bullish break-out signal. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TradingShot
1
S&P500 This is the end of the 5 month Bullish Leg.S&P500 / US500 is approaching the top of a Fibonacci Channel Up that goes back all the way to August 2022. The 1day MA50 has been in firm support since November 3rd 2023 but as the 1day RSI is squeezed inside a Triangle pattern, a break out is inevitable. This is technically more likely to be to the downside due to this overbought multi month momentum near the top of the Channel. Sell and target 4950 (Support A, 0.382 Channel Fib and -6.00% from the top). Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TheCryptagon
2
S&P 500: Turn around! 🔄After the S&P was able to close the price gap of the previous trading week, bullish pressure pushed the index up again. We have drawn a clear demarcation between our two scenarios with the resistance at 5254 points. Primarily, we categorize the magenta wave (1) as finished. The current wave (2) correction should come to an end in our magenta Target Zone (coordinates: 4635 – 4340 points). If, on the other hand, the index surpasses the resistance level at 5254 points, the internal wave Alt.5 in turquoise as well as the superordinate magenta wave Alt.(1) will reach a higher level again. We assign a probability of 30% to this alternative scenario.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by MarketIntel
S&P500 Tight Channel Up calls for buying unless it breaks.S&P500 is trading inside a narrow Channel Up pattern. As long as the price stays inside, we remain bullish on the index. The ralies inside it have been quite symmetric as well. The MA50 (1d) has been supporting this strong bullish trend since November 03 2023. Trading Plan: 1. Buy as long as the price remains inside the Channel Up. 2. Sell if it breaks below it (Support 1 in play). Targets: 1. 5260 (+ 4.34% symmetric bullish leg). 2. 4920 (Support 2). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) is inside a Triangle pattern. Either direction it breaks to, it will be an early trend signal, so keep an eye. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TradingBrokersView
1
Indices:🔴Is it the major market structure shift?🔴 Well As you can see, we can see the SMT here so we can expect a downtrend. The first condition is, that we see the price close the candle body below the bullish FVG, only then can we expect the price to go lower to collect the sell-side liquidity. After that, If the first condition occurs, we need the candle closure below the sell side liquidity, then the price activates the bearish breaker block and the breaker can act as a strong resistance and pull the price down. 💡Wait for the update! 🗓️10/03/2024 🔎 DYOR 💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
CBOT_MINI:YMH2024Short
by VahidTradingCR
1
S&P 500 approaches key resistance at 5165Watch This Resistance Level on the S&P 500 ( ES Futures ). ...................................................................................................................... We are not registered or licensed in any jurisdiction whatsoever to provide investing advice or anything of an advisory or consultancy nature. and are therefore are unqualified to give investment recommendations. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed investment professional before investing. This communication is never to be used as the basis of making investment decisions, and it is for entertainment purposes only.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by CryptoTrend-Alerts
S&P500: Sell opportunity for at least 1 month.S&P500 is bullish on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 61.459, MACD = 50.390, ADX = 31.702) but the RSI has turned sideways for a long time which is the same pattern that led to the July 27th 2023 High. The index has had three major corrections inside the long term Channel Up, ranging from -8.16% to -10.64%. We expect the index to decline by at least -8.00% in the next 1 month and approach the 1D MA200 (TP = 4,750), which is intact since November 2nd 2023. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by InvestingScope
S&P-500 E-Mini: Full Fibonacci SchematicsThis is a completely full and completed schematic of CME's E-mini S&P 500 Contract. This contract started in 1997 so there are decades of data not accounted for on the real chart. However, these are just as viable and important as the Standard & Poors 500 Indice. Let us take a look at the separate (chronological) boxes and understand what they are... #1 is VERY IMPORTANT as this has the first pair of Fib Spikes for ES1 which are the red and white lines coming across the chart. ALSO, we see an extension from the COVID low ( YELLOW ) and this extension exactly determined the high at 4800 and the approximate bottom. #1 and #3 also have two up schematics in RED originating from the local low from 3500. These are VERY IMPORTANT SCHEMATICS IN 1 and 3. #2 and #4 are the first two pairs of Fibonacci Extensions for ES1. In both, we have fib forks. In #4 there are 2 of the forks. ( yellow and white ) #3, #5, #6, and #7 are the start of the next structured schematic. #3 contains the second set of fib forks for ES1. 5, 6, and 7 are all from the same structure but have completely different schematics. #7 Contains a very important schematic of Fib Forks stemming from the inception of ES1. (YELLOW) #8 is a formation from the COVID lows of 2020. We see the third set of Fib Spikes/Forks on ES1 here and also a Fib Schematic too. One piece of the schematic is in #1 in YELLOW and is a very important extension. It belongs in #8 but I have it in #1 because it has shown its utility.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by MichaelBsul
3
S&P 500 prime for a correction, BUT are we done with the run?How long do we stay below 5400 - SP500? is the real question. Are we going to see a sideways range through the fall? Do we get a rip roaring 10-15% correction and "L" or even better "V" recovery? The path does not matter as much but here is my commentary anyway. I think that we see a temporary high in early April as we power through the rest of Q1 earnings then take a breath.12% correction? -> 480 looks like a good support? over a couple months? May usually sucks, do we see a bottom in May with the "sell in May and go away" crowd? But I cant imagine much of a stay there with a gap down 5% bull run or a 3% turn around Tuesday. Not to mention the June cut expectations that will get early mover money flowing. I think the news goes with the fed cuts rates minus some black swan. You can almost mark our cycles to the fed rate decisions over the past 3-4 years. I could see a build up into June with expectations of rate cuts. Inflation remains in a downward trend. Manufacturing has been contracting. The big R word won't go away! Tax returns may stem a few more higher inflation readings that scare the market. Good correction fodder. But also good rate cut fodder. My Elliott wave charting (my own work) tells me that we could be near the top of wave 3 with a wave 5 to go. (Mind you I believe this is part of large wave 3. LETS GO 2025. Years of the bull. ROARING 20s.) Billions of dollars of stimulus sloshing around. Intel microchip plant in IN. Ford Blue Oval in TN Toyota in NC. Look at United Rentals.. Looking at their revenue a 40% increase since pre stimulus. 300 % increase in market cap in the same time frame. Maybe you want to say "but Zaphod... inflation". Even if you say the price has doubled for market value rentals, that is still 150% increase in expectations. Growth is expected with a 20 PE. That is a massive amount of building. Building infrastructure to support technology advances, our massive vehicle trash pile, the AI revolution, war machines, airplanes etc... Billions of dollars, then billions more dumped into these projects. Small caps and medium cap: Russell 2k, Even split SP500: The catch up trade could certainly drive us higher into 2025. All the billions that people just cashed out of Apple and Tesla(watch out below!), just looking for a new home. Let the rate cuts come and watch the second half of this year explode. 5800? Final note for today: exponential growth is going to continue until the collapse of society. 2% inflation charted is still exponential. Stay in the market, be a bull, you win more. You will hate the wild rides down unless you are patient and GREEDY when the fear is real. I am obviously making all this up to fan my biases so do your own speculating. Comment the thoughts below.
AMEX:SPYLong
by ZaphodBeebz
S&P500 Is it timed for a correction until the Fed Decision?The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a long-term Channel Up since the October 13 2022 market bottom and since last Friday, the price has been griding on its top (Higher Highs trend-line). The longer it fails to convincingly break and close a full week above it, the more likely it is to deliver a technical pull-back. On that technical setting, the 1D RSI has been on a lengthy Bearish Divergence (Lower Highs) since December 19 2023, which is similar to the one that led to the July 27 2023 Channel Up Higher High and the subsequent -10.96% correction. In fact the 1D RSI has printed a peak pattern (red circle) similar to all previous 3 Higher Highs that gave corrections ranging from -9.17% to -10.96%. July 27 2023 initially delivered a -5.84% pull-back before extending to -10.96%. From a fundamental perspective though, if the market indeed gets rejected here and starts pulling back, it would seem ideally timed for a bottom near the next Fed Rate Decision meeting on March 20 2024, where the policymakers may give clearer hints for a June cut. The correction's targets can only be determined technically though, so a potential -5.84% pull-back takes us marginally below Support 1 at 4845, right on the 0.382 Fibonacci Channel retracement level. If the market overreacts to the Fed, then a potential extension gives a rough 2nd Target at 4755, within Fib 0.5 and 0.618, which will approach the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). On the current phase of the Bull Cycle we are at though, it is very doubtful to see in the near future stronger corrections. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TradingShot
2
Weakness in Bullish momentum. Did we see the top for Nasdaq?Lets look at CAPITALCOM:DXY Currently with a Bullish structure and slow build up Long. Seems it is attempting to reach that Monthly Area low. Bullish Dollar=Bearish Equities....Right? Well this has not been the case these particular past couple of weeks. We have not seen with clarity the inverse correlation between DXY and Equities. In fact everything has been manipulated up. Yes! I wrote manipulated do not get hung up on the word. Back to Indices. CME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! CBOT_MINI:YM1! These have a strong Bullish structure. NQ is showing signs of repricing with this pullback. -Is it sufficient to slow down current Bullish momentum? -Is NQ leading the indices in a reversal? These are all valid questions, yet we do not have enough data to validate either or. Bearish Equities seasonality could have kicked in. This is the week of confirmation or at the very least for price to provide some sort of hint. My targets for NQ providing price action confirms it are either a repricing to 17107.25 or a break of Highs. -If we take out lows first then I would expect price to rally once again and make another attempt at Highs. -An attempt at highs at the beginning of the week will look favorable for the Bears salivating over the Volume Void right at 17107.25 Here is a view of Weekly Charts for: ES YM NQ
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by JP_Tru
S&P500 This Bull Cycle is far from over.On this analysis we view the S&P500 (SPX) from the longer term perspective of the 1M time-frame in order to answer the question of why it hasn't pulled-back since the October 2023 Low. The answer can be given by observing the index from a cyclical point of view. First, with the exception of the March 2020 COVID flash crash and more recently October 2022, the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), was intact since October 2011. Even during those two tests, it never closed a monthly (1M) candle below it. This makes it the current long-term Support and every pull-back towards it is a buy opportunity on the lowest possible risk. The catalyst on this long-term analysis is the Channel Down that started on the 1M RSI since the September 2015 Low. Every decline near its bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) is a buy opportunity, while near its top (Lower Highs trend-line) is a sell. Right now the Cycle (5th since the bottom of the 2008-2009 Housing Crisis) is at the point after its 1st mid-cycle correction (blue circle) where the 1M RSI typically bounces off its MA (yellow) trend-line. This hasn't just happened within the RSI's Channel Down but is also a characteristic of all Cycles since the bottom of the 2008-2009 Housing Crisis. At the same time, the 1M MACD rises on a Bullish Cross. As a result, even though a short-term pull-back can be technically justified, the current Bull Cycle is far from over as the 1M RSI hasn't approached the Channel's top. Technically that should be towards the fall of 2024 followed by a volatile 2025. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
4
Hyped about the possibilities of NQWhy I'm so hyped?... We just had a perfect start of a Bullish weekly model. Bearish Mon-Tues. stablishing weekly lows on Tuesday. Next will be the setting of the Weekly highs on Wed-Thursday with the following distribution on Friday if any. If you look at the NQ chart we went from internal to internal with big boy rejection of that 4H level. Normally under these circumstances price goes from internal to external. Our next external is 18026 about 200 points away from current price. Now, I do not expect for us to go straight there everyone here knows price does not move like that but the case is being made by several factors A Weakening Dollar after the Monthly area rejection A strengthening Bond market - so-so Strength in the small caps which is usually a good indication of risk on scenarios Election year (Never discount the power of Big Brother) Lets see what happens.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by JP_Tru