VIX showing that tension is expected soon in the stock markets.When we looked at the Volatility Index (VIX) on our November 07 2023 analysis (see chart below) we compared it with the S&P500 index (SPX) :
The S&P500 has reached the top of its Channel Up, while the VIX bottomed and is consolidating on a price action that is very similar to the July 27 2023 Low, which was the former Higher High of the S&P500 Channel Up.
Today we plot both VIX and the S&P500 on the same chart and not side by side. As you can see VIX's 1D RSI has bottomed and is rising within a Bullish Megaphone, indicating that the price has already bottomed, which is a Lower Low on the Channel Down pattern it has been trading within since the September 28 2022 High (which has also been the start of the 2023 recovery year for the stock markets). The SPX is illustrated by the thin black trend-line and being negatively correlated in nature, when VIX declined within this Channel, the stocks rose and vice versa.
Since October 23 2023, VIX started to decline again and that sparked the stock rise which is holding up to this day. VIX's bottom and rise though above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) within the Bullish Megaphone we just mentioned above, is an indication that the SPX has topped, similar to the February 02 2023 and July 27 2023 Highs, which where Lows for VIX's Channel Down.
The chart clearly shows that VIX has just started its own (dashed) Bullish Megaphone (has always done so a little after the RSI Bullish Megaphone) and that was been the start of the S&P500 decline during the Higher Highs we mentioned. As a result, we expect VIX's volatility to apply high pressure on the stock market in the next 4-6 weeks, which should technically bottom and turn into a buy opportunity again only after VIX closes a 1D candle below both the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as it did on November 02 and March 28 2023.
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S&P 500 E-Mini Futures
S&P500 Bearish Divergence on 1D RSI points to a correction.The S&P500 index (SPX) has reached the top of the long-term Channel Up pattern that started on the October 13 2022 market bottom. This development is a strong sell signal on its own but it gets even stronger as the 1D RSI has been within a Channel Down since December 19, while the price was rising within a Channel Up, which is a technical Bearish Divergence.
The very same Bearish Divergence that led to the July 27 2023 Higher High and was followed by a 3-month almost -11.00% correction. The first wave of that correction was -5.84% and has been the minimum correction range in 2023, settling just above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. As a result that minimum will be our target and its at 4700, as we may see a bullish reaction going closer to the mid-March Fed Rate Decision (in expectations of rate cuts).
Technically though, we can see a longer correctional wave to -9.26% (like the Bearish Leg that bottomed on March 13 2023) that could test the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), or even almost -11.00% (like the one that bottomed on October 27 2023). Notice how each of those potential correction targets are conveniently placed around key Support or Fibonacci retracement levels.
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S&P500: Channel Up topped. Correction possible.S&P500 is only a few points away from hitting the HL trendline of the long term Channel Up (started on the October 13 2022 Low). That would be the second time to test the patterns absolute Top. The 1D technical outlook is on standard bullish levels (RSI = 67.767, MACD = 49.570, ADX = 38.770) but the 1D RSI in particular has formed the very same pattern it did during the July 2022, January 2023 and December 2022 Channel Up Highs.
Consequently we have all the technical evidence we need for a 1 month at least short. The first Support is the 1D MA50 but in order to keep the long term uptrend on sustainable levels, it would be better to approach the 1D MA200. We expect the pullback to almost hit the 1D MA200 and touch at least the 0.382 Fibonacci of the Channel (TP = 4,600).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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AmazonSmile. You shop. And... Amazon Still Gives 😊 Amazon stocks are going up this year with solid 52.29% year-to-date gain, that is currently the 9th largest YTD result over all components of Nasdaq-100 ( NASDAQ:NDX ) index.
Work hard, Have fun, Make history - And You're Done! - This is the official tagline of Amazon in 2023.
The slogan refers to Amazon’s dedication to innovation and service enhancement. As can be seen, Amazon tagline 2023 is separated by three ideologies.
Have Fun
There is a saying that goes You gotta do what you love to love what you do, and I believe it much applies to this ideology – to have fun. The key to having fun at work is creativity and innovation.
Bezos makes room for mistakes, as long as they lead to something positive. You know what they say, learn from your mistakes and be better. To have fun is to think beyond the boundaries with a powerful imagination.
Make History
As of June 22, 2023, Jeff Bezos is the third richest person in the world, with a net worth of $149 billion, according to Bloomberg Billionaire Index data . Amazon proudly contributes to Bezos’ success, being the most successful retailer company in the U.S.A. Despite such accomplishments, the business still strives to develop bigger by the day.
From A To Z
You can still see a smile formed right under Amazon’s logo; it represents the range of products and services available on the platform. The smile also symbolizes consumers’ happiness when they find what they need within just a few clicks.
Of course, in Trader's terms a market smile also means V-shaped recovery, that is currently observed due to massive Reversed Head and Shoulders Chart Pattern structure breakout.
Overall Amazon stocks still are on the positive path, following the All-the-history support of 10-years simple moving average.
Trends heading into the FOMC Rate DecisionOverheated market trends showing a bull market is basically my findings. I have not held into positions, long or short, going into this last surge. I had a relatively promising month in January and decided I would just end it on that note.
Trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract)
30m - 4925 Downtrend (1/31/2024) Lower Low
1Hr - 4933 Downtrend (1/31/2024) Higher Low
2Hr - 4925 Downtrend (1/31/2024) Higher Low
3Hr - 4954 Uptrend (1/29/2024) Higher High
4Hr - 4829 Uptrend (1/19/2024) Higher High
6Hr - 4797 Uptrend (1/8/2024) Higher High
12Hr - 4848 Uptrend (1/19/2024) Higher High
Daily - 4378 Uptrend (11/3/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High
As explained, that 30m is showing the first sign of weakness for this surge to come back at all.
Additionally, I read a report with Dow Jones Newswires that most of the insider trading lately has been little to no buying and lots of selling. Basically that means that members with stocks in their own companies are taking profits and not investing further into their company. I wouldn't take this as a sign that they think their company is in trouble, but more as a sign that they feel their stocks are overvalued and it is profitable to sell now and repurchase later.
Economic Data today is going to the FED Meeting Minutes and the subsequent statement by Jerome Powell. I don't foresee, nor does the market, of any interest rate movement today.
Geopolitical tensions continue to worsen in the Middle East. The latest is a Drone strike in Jordan that killed 3 US Servicemembers. I've been very surprised that the market has not priced in any sort of issues coming from the Israel/Hamas conflict or any of the tensions and skirmish fighting in the surrounding area.
Overall, I see a huge threat to potential inflationary pressure disrupting this upward movement in the long term. Not some sort of pressure that would take us to a surge in inflation back to 9% like we were, but certainly not allowing us to reach a 2% target rate and having some minor upward movement instead of continuing the downtrend we have seen over the last year.
Overall, my sentiment is fairly neutral. While I had held a bullish sentiment with spots of bearish profit taking before, I see overall a neutral movement from here, as my estimate for our top over this year was to be 5000 and we've almost reached that already.
BTC VS NDX. FOLLOWING THE BEARISH SCENARIOPreviously in the Series..
👉 Launch of BTC futures on December 18, 2017
Bitcoin is down more than 10 percent in a week and crashed 80+ percent in a year.
👉 Launch of trading on Coinbase IPO NASDAQ:COIN on April 14, 2021
Bitcoin is down more than 10 percent for the week and crashed 50+ percent for the quarter.
👉 Launch of AMEX:BITO - the first fund based on BTC futures, on October 19, 2021
Bitcoin is down more than 10 percent in a week and crashed 80+ percent in a year.
👉 Launch of ̶G̶i̶p̶s̶y̶ ̶C̶a̶m̶p̶ 11 ETFs on BTC, incl. on BTC spot, on January 11, 2024.
Bitcoin has slumped by more than 10 percent in a week and further losing its shores.
The main technical graph is a ratio between Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD and NASDAQ:NDX Nasdaq-100 Index.
Indeed, BTC underperforms against NDX, almost for a 3 years in a row..
But blind faith is ineradicable..
Who knows, what BTC halving has to say..
The truth is One and Only - just trend is your real friend ! 😄
👋 Alphabet Inc (Google) — Bear Trap EscapeAmerican company Alphabet Inc. two days before has published a quartrely statement and announced an increase in net profit and revenue in the second quarter ended in June.
In addition, the company said its chief financial officer, Ruth Porat, will take over as president and chief investment officer of Alphabet and Google from September 1, 2023.
At the same time, Porat will temporarily remain as CFO of Alphabet and Google until her successor is found.
The company reported net income of $18.4 billion, or $1.44 per share, compared to $16 billion, or $1.21 per share, a year earlier.
Revenue, meanwhile, rose from $69.7 billion a year earlier to $74.6 billion, also above the market's forecast of $62.06 billion. Cloud revenue was up 28% year-over-year.
Comments by Sundar Pichai, CEO of Alphabet and Google:
“Our products and company performed well this quarter. Our continued leadership in artificial intelligence and our excellence in engineering and innovation are driving the next evolution of Search and improving all of our services.
With 15 products serving half a billion people each, and 6 of them serving more than two billion people, we have a lot of opportunities.”
Comments by Ruth Porat, Chief Financial Officer of Alphabet and Google:
“Our financial results reflect continued resilience in search with accelerating revenue growth in both search and YouTube, as well as momentum in the cloud.
We continue to invest for growth while prioritizing our efforts to long-term reorganize our company-wide cost base and build the capacity to deliver sustainable value over the long term.”
As announced on April 20, 2023, the Company has merged part of Google Research (the Brain team) and DeepMind to significantly accelerate advances in artificial intelligence (AI).
A group called Google DeepMind is reflected in Alphabet's unallocated corporate expenses starting in the second quarter of 2023.
Shares of Google rose more than 6 percent in premarket trading on Wednesday, with a lot of room for further gains.
Technical pictures indicates that major breakout of $125 resistance is happening right now, hitching the price above the neckline in reversed Head and Shoulders chart pattern structure.
SPY SHORT ( UPDATE FROM JAN 24,2024 )**Hello all, Im here to add some insights to the trading view community. I run options and stock programs out of trading view which give intraday bull and bear probabilities and support and resistance levels based on options chain data
Looking at SPY, I see a Support level at 485 and the open interest difference between calls and puts are the highest there ( over 5000 ). Resistance at 487 and 488. Im looking to enter a short now with 490 SL.
Target is sub 480 if bears push it over
Based on my program which does seasonal analysis, SPY is bearish for the next 10 days. Feb month is where the big bear comes seasonally.
Ai forecast also looks bearish. Not a place to go long. We Trade algo is applied on the chart**
We posted the above idea initially on the 24th of january when SPY was close to 489 but the idea got hidden. The short/ put trade we entered at 488 level paid 80% and closed at 485 level.
Watching for another short opportunity. Out of all longs for now
New Highs should make things clearer, but not Easier!It's been a while since I updated followers on the SP/ES. I recently moved my daughter to Spain after graduating from college...so my wife and I are really just getting used to an empty house.
Nonetheless, let's get into it.
First and foremost, the primary circle B wave will be taken off the chart, and that clears things up for us. Why does it clear things up? New Highs leaves up with no current down side set ups...so essentially we should get continuation higher in a completion of our Ending Diagonal. I want address a question several followers had previously asked and in doing so, should aid me in my communicating my forecast.
Question: Why isn't this pattern off the October 2022 lows a leading diagonal in wave 1, versus wave 5 like you're counting it?
Because this pattern overlapped as indicated on the chart it cannot be counted as an impulsive pattern. Sure price has moved higher and we're now at new all time highs. I am counting it as a motive wave, but as an Ending Diagonal. The argument seems academic at this point because price has retraced all the declines from January 2022. I continue to think there is merit in classifying the pattern correctly...but only the decline will prove me right or wrong. Additionally, some have argued with me for a year or more, that this move off the October 2022 could be a leading diagonal. I have shared my views on leading diagonals quite extensively. Many may disagree. I don't believe leading diagonals are a pattern. I will spare you the context again...but if you are interested, I suggest researching LD's. You'll find that the Elliott Wave community at large is wishy-washy on the subject. Nonetheless, if my analysis is correct and we are completing an ending diagonal, or about to, the price reversal will be swift.
As of today, I am torn with this being the a-wave of a 3 wave 5 of V of (III) or all of 5. With so many of the key stocks I track that make up a large percentage of the index in their respective wave 5's. I think we'll find out soon enough.
Trends heading into a conflict area; Other factors in reviewSo I chose to cash out my trade at 4760 for about $2250. Trends have a huge case to send us lower, especially if the 6hour keeps signaling lower. All the trends between 30m and 4hr are ALL in a lower low downtrend at the moment.
The trends are as follows;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract)
30m - 4778 Downtrend (1/17/2024) Lower Low
1Hr - 4761 Downtrend (1/17/2024) Lower Low
2Hr - 4790 Downtrend (1/11/2024) Lower Low
3Hr - 4790 Downtrend (1/11/2024) Lower Low
4Hr - 4777 Downtrend (1/8/2024) Lower Low
6Hr - 4797 Uptrend (1/8/2024) Higher High
12Hr - 4762 Downtrend (1/3/2024) Higher Low
Daily - 4378 Uptrend (11/3/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High
**Note - The 1hr was signaling during the video, it did solidify since so I included the updated in this brief.
That will put the 30m to 6hr downtrends against the 12hr violated uptrend, and pending daily higher low uptrend as well once it signals. As I explain in the video, I see the potential of a conflict zone here, and given my significant profit for the month already, I will likely look elsewhere for additional trades for the moment.
Other things to look at-
Earnings;
We are in Earnings season. Mostly banks this week. They have been mixed overall. Next week is a much bigger week with Microsoft, Netflix, Tesla, and more reporting. To note, there has not been a negative earnings season overall yet recently, even during the bear market of 2022 into 2023.
Economic Data;
Fed Waller spoke about small and few rate cuts, that the market is overly optimistic in the view of how many cuts they expect, and the retail sales data today supports the FOMC ability to choose not to cut rates until they feel very confident inflation is down and will stay that way.
Geopolitical;
Tension in the Middle East continues to rise, so I'd keep having an eye on that. If oil prices surge (they haven't, in spite of attempts by OPEC to make them and general sentiment they will) that will bleed back into inflationary pressure.
My overall sentiment;
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral/slight bullish
Long Term - Bullish
My ZM contracts were stopped out today unfortunately, as I picked up December contracts that didn't nearly pop up like the other ZM contracts of 2024, so I am on the hunt for other potential investments for the moment. Many of those are currency exchanges such as 6J, 6A, and potentially the 6E again if it drops a bit more.
Safe trading, and remember your risk management.
🦘🦘 Aussie Kangaroo Returns Home In The OutbackThe Australian dollar has been taking a bath. It’s gone from buying 71 US cents at the beginning of the year to netting you just 63.3 US cents against the benchmark greenback.
The dollar is down over the last year against most currencies, and down over the past few weeks against almost every currency.
The humble Aussie dollar is suffering in particular against European currencies: Pound Sterling, the Swiss Franc and the Euro.
However, even in Japan where the AUD is up over the year so far, it is down in recent weeks.
What’s going on? The answer is two-fold.
👉 America’s economy is stronger than expected. And China is weaker, so Chinese yuan has little to no chance of dethroning the US dollar, even as global de-dollarization happens.
👉 Australia gets hit on both of those trades.
Difference between 10-Year United States and Australian Govt Debt becomes lower
Technical graph for FX:AUDUSD indicates that Aussie has a lot down to deliver.
S&P500 Buy and Sell trading plan.The S&P500 (SPX) index has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the December 07 low and is currently on the 3rd Bullish Leg towards the top (Higher Highs trend-line). The basic Support is the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) which has (nearly) held twice this month, with the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) right below being the separator between a medium-term bullish and bearish trend.
We expect a maximum Leg growth of 5.56% like the one that topped on December 27, so we are buying towards 4900 or until the 4H MACD makes a Bearish Cross (standard peak/ sell signal within the Channel Up), in which case we will sell and target the Channel's bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) at 4800 (-2.80% decline like January 05), or close earlier if the 4H MA200 gets hit.
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Bear Market Bottoms ExaminedSo many bulls and bears are stating their cases on social media as to whether or not a bottom is in so I thought I'd take some time today to examine what a daily bottoming process looks like using SPX.
Standard & Poor's 500 was created in 1957 and since then it has gone through 9 bear markets (Defined as a GREATER THAN 20% decline on a CLOSING basis). 2022 will make 10 but at this point we do not know whether or not we have a bottom in place until we can break above the all time high of 4818.62
As you can see from the below charts, with the exception of Oct 1987; all the bottoms have large & steady "thrusts" IMMEDIATELY after the lows were made that held the following re-tracements IMMEDIATELY:
.382 - 67% (6 out 9 bottoms- 2009, 2002, 1982, 1974,1966, 1962)
.50 - 11% (1 out 9 bottoms-2020)
.618 - 11% (1 out 9 bottoms- 1970)
< .618 - 11% (1 out 9 bottoms-1987)
Our current bottom could NOT hold the .618 immediately after the low was made therefore it falls into the category of the 1987 exception/rare case. The strongest bull cases show a thrust and then hold of a .382 re-tracement.
I'm using a very basic bar chart with black bars to cut down the noise of everything, inserting a Fib Re-tracement, drawing the immediate thrust and adding the number of trading days it took to get above the last lower high.
June 1962 (Approx decline: 27%)
Oct 1966 (Approx decline: 22%)
May 1970 (Approx decline: 33%)
Oct 1974 (Approx decline: 48%)
Aug 1982 (Approx decline: 27%)
Oct 1987 (Approx decline: 33%)
Oct 2002 (Approx decline: 47%)
March 2009 (Approx decline: 56%)
March 2020 (Approx decline: 32%)
After looking over all these bottoms I must say the bears do present a strong case that the bottom is not yet in place. IMO, the only similar chart from a bulls perspective is the May 1970 case as it does resemble the "look" of our current bottom however look at how long it took to get above the last lower high.
I hope you enjoyed this post...at a minimum it gives me one post that goes back in time to look at the daily charts of all 9 SPX bear market bottoms to analyze the look and feel of a bear market bottom since they happen so infrequently!
S&P500: Last rally before correction.S&P500 may be overbought on the 4H timeframe (RSI = 72.835, MACD = 15.590, ADX = 49.520) but not yet on the 1D technical outlook as the price hasn't yet made a HH on the two month Channel Up. The 4H RSI does show us though that it is starting that HH peak sequence as it can start a LH trendline like December 14th. We are expecting this wave to peak on a +5.55% rise at 4,920 like the Higher High of December 27th, where we will short and target the 0.5 Fibonacci level and 4H MA200 (TP = 4,800) like the index did on the January 5th HL.
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Chinese equities falling, VIX skyrocketing, and rally stallingOvernight, multiple Chinese stock markets established new lows, setting the negative tone for the European trading session and futures markets in the United States, with all major U.S. indices diving into the negative territory ahead of the regular trading hours. So far, the SPX has failed to get through the psychological resistance of $4,800 and establish new highs. At the same time, other indices like the Nasdaq 100, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Russell 2000 have been moving sideways since late December 2023. It is becoming increasingly apparent that the market’s bullish momentum continues to stall, which follows a period of extremely low VIX and cheap protection to the downside (two things that often precede a downturn in the market). As a result, we are closely monitoring an opening gap in the VIX; if the gap is not closed and the VIX continues to grow, it will strongly bolster the bearish case. The same applies to the decline in MACD, Stochastic, and RSI (plus its failure to break through 70 points) on the daily graph. In addition to that, there are signs of a double-top forming on the daily and weekly chart (not validated yet, though). Therefore, we continue to approach the market with heightened caution.
Illustration 1.01
The image shows three major Chinese stock market indices: the Hang Seng Index, the CSI 300 Index, and the Shanghai Composite Index. The Hang Seng Index has continuously declined since early 2018, while the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 have declined since early 2021; the performance is measured from the all-time highs until the latest market close.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 portrays the daily chart of VIX. The yellow arrow indicates the opening gap in the VIX, a notable event, given its increase of more than 10% from the previous close.
Illustration 1.03
Illustration 1.03 shows the daily and weekly chart of the SPX. Yellow arrows indicate two peaks, which could potentially evolve into a double-top formation.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Neutral (turning slightly bearish)
Weekly time frame = Neutral
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Trends to finish this week and into next weekStill sitting short at 4805, at the time of recording I was slightly in the negative, but since we have pulled back down as expected and I'm in a profit zone. The trends are well explained in the video, but most important takeaway is that a new 4hr downtrend coming in below 4808 will signal a lower low, as will a 6hr downtrend coming in below 4759. These two movements would open us up, in accordance with trends, to further movement down.
Trends are as follows;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract)
30m - 4817 Uptrend (1/12/2024) Higher High
1Hr - 4807 Downtrend (1/11/2024) Higher Low
2Hr - 4790 Downtrend (1/11/2024) Lower Low
3Hr - 4790 Downtrend (1/11/2024) Lower Low
4Hr - 4770 Uptrend (1/8/2024) Lower High
6Hr - 4797 Uptrend (1/8/2024) Higher High
12Hr - 4762 Downtrend (1/3/2024) Higher Low
Daily - 4378 Uptrend (11/3/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High
Economic Data;
PPI is today, I don't see it have a major weight into the market though as we had CPI, which weighs more heavily, yesterday.
Geopolitical;
US and British forces hit Houthi targets, furthering tensions in the Middle East. This is why Oil has rocketed up 4% thus far on the day. The higher oil goes, the more that price could bleed into inflation, and also the tension could cause some concern for supply-chain issues.
Side Note;
I did go Long on two ZMZ24 (Soybean Meal for December maturity) contracts yesterday at 360. I plan to hold until around 370 and evaluate further to see if they will reach the 'predicted' target of 401. I do not trade Soybean products often, it is more of a oversold historically position than a knowledge of how Soybeans work.
My sentiment going forward in the ES Futures Market is;
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Bearish
Medium Term - Bearish/Neutral
Long Term - Bullish
Safe trading, and as always, remember your risk management plan.