Wave 3 UpdateHere is out map of Primary wave 2 to this point. It is unclear if Minor 5 and Primary wave 2 are completed.
Now that Primary wave 2 retraced all of Primary wave 1's movement and then some, instead of limiting historical datasets to a ratioed range, I am comparing all similar micro waves where wave 2 moved more than wave 1. Elliott wave theory says wave 2 cannot move more than wave 1, my modified theory permits this when it occurs. Wave 1's movement / Wave 2's movement = 0.9957. I compared all data in which this ratio is less than 1 (Wave 2 was larger than wave 1) and the numbers look a little more realistic moving forward.
According to the data, Primary wave 3 should bottom above 3754 and less than 4036. The duration will likely last 608-740 trading hours. I still have other models with heavy agreement at a duration around 690-699 hours. Most models have the bottom between 3750-3799, which falls inline with the historical ratioed data. I will use the target of 3775 (drop 834.23 points from Friday's high) in 690 hours for estimating the Intermediate wave endpoints.
Preliminary bottom for Intermediate 1 is below 4350 before December 25. Intermediate wave 2 up toward 4500 by January 10. Intermediate wave 3 will be a significant drop over time, current look is 3900 by end of February. Intermediate wave 4 bounces up toward 4100 by mid-March. Current Primary wave 3 and Intermediate wave 5 bottom is around 3775 by early May.
Again this is all under the assumption Primary wave 2 is where we are, has completed, or will complete shortly after the open tomorrow. Primary wave 2 cannot realistically sustain too much more upside otherwise my wave placement is well off. More updates to follow.
