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S&P 500 E-Mini Futures

Turning Cautiously BullishS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 08/29 As we wrote in our trading plans published yesterday, Mon. 08/28: "If we get a daily close above 4415 today then our models will flip to a moderately bullish bias. If not, they will continue to sport their bearish bias". We got this confirmation with yesterday's close, and our models are turning cautiously bullish for today. There are mixed signals about the viability of this push up, hence the cautiousness. With the economic released coming in rest of the week, with the culmination into the NFP Friday, there is a risk of volatile spikes in either direction. If you are entering into a positional trade, make sure you have enough bandwidth to sustain wide swings. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4486, 4476, 4463, or 4454 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4483, 4473, 4460, 4450, or 4437 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit short exits on a break above 4443. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:46am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #bankdowngrades, #nvidia
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
1
4400 Breakout Confirmation Today?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 08/28 As we wrote in our trading plans published Thu. 08/24: "It remains to be seen if this morning's surge above 4400 will be convincing enough for our models to abandon the bearish bias by tomorrow". On Friday, 08/25, we wrote: "Based on the early session action, we are not abandoning our bearish bias yet. We will reevaluate this on Monday". If we get a daily close above 4415 today then our models will flip to a moderately bullish bias. If not, they will continue to sport their bearish bias. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4433, 4426, 4407, 4402, or 4387 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4424, 4413, 4405, 4398, or 4384  with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4430. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:16am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #bankdowngrades, #nvidia
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
SPY SPX NASDAQ S&P500 ES are not going to dumpA "head and shoulders" pattern is a technical analysis chart pattern that can indicate a potential reversal in a stock's price trend. It consists of three peaks: a higher peak (the head) between two lower peaks (the shoulders). The pattern suggests a potential shift from an upward trend to a downward trend. However, the effectiveness of technical patterns like head and shoulders can vary, and they don't always accurately predict market movements. Market behavior is influenced by a multitude of factors including economic indicators, company performance, geopolitical events, investor sentiment, and more. "Complex correction" typically refers to a more intricate and prolonged market correction, which is a decline in stock prices from recent highs. Corrections are a natural part of market cycles and can be caused by various factors like overvaluation, economic downturns, or other negative events. It's important to note that making accurate predictions about market movements is extremely challenging, even for experts. If you're considering investing or making financial decisions, it's advisable to do thorough research, consider a diversified approach, and consult with financial professionals who can provide tailored advice based on your individual circumstances and risk tolerance.
SP:SPX
by EIP-EverythingIsPlanned
Bounce Above 4400 Sustainable? Day 3S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 08/25 Notwithstanding Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech, our models continue to not give credence to the bounce above 4400 in SPX. We need confirmatory signs before we negate our bearish bias. In our trading plans published Thu. 08/17, we wrote: "The index is approaching the 4400 level this morning. If it breaks down, then 4385 will be the next support". The index closed below that level on Thursday, and took down multiple support levels since then, and our models' bias has turned outright bearish on Friday, and will remain bearish while the daily close is below 4400. As we wrote in our trading plans published yesterday, Thu. 08/23: "It remains to be seen if this morning's surge above 4400 will be convincing enough for our models to abandon the bearish bias by tomorrow". Based on the early session action, we are not abandoning our bearish bias yet. We will reevaluate this on Monday. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4433, 4421, 4407, 4384, 4372, or 4356 with a 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4430, 4417, 4405, 4381, 4367, or 4353 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:31am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #bankdowngrades, #nvidia
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Weekly Update: Why Couldn't NVidia Save Us?Maybe the catalyst higher starts at Jackson Hole and Chairman Powell's speech at 10am? If not that, then the market will move higher because of either a soft, or NO landing recession thesis. As I continue to update my sentiment chart for my followers, these are the current narratives being discussed...but it will not matter to the sentiment chart what the narrative is. The Sentiment Chart simply is a repeating visual of trader sentiment. The narratives will change. The Sentiment Chart doesn't. It simply repeats. If intermediate waves 1-2 are done then this is about to get ugly. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
Bounce Above 4400 Sustainable? Day 2S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 08/24 In our trading plans published Thu. 08/17, we wrote: "The index is approaching the 4400 level this morning. If it breaks down, then 4385 will be the next support". The index closed below that level on Thursday, and took down multiple support levels since then, and our models' bias has turned outright bearish on Friday, and will remain bearish while the daily close is below 4400. As we wrote in our trading plans published yesterday, Thu. 08/23: "It remains to be seen if this morning's surge above 4400 will be convincing enough for our models to abandon the bearish bias by tomorrow". Based on the early session action, we are not abandoning our bearish bias yet. We will reevaluate this on Monday. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4477, 4463, 4452, 4433, 4421, or 4407 with a 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4460, 4448, 4430, 4417, or 4405 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4474. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:46am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #bankdowngrades, #nvidia
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Morning Bounce Above 4400 Sustainable?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 08/23 In our trading plans published Thu. 08/17, we wrote: "The index is approaching the 4400 level this morning. If it breaks down, then 4385 will be the next support". The index closed below that level on Thursday, and took down multiple support levels since then, and our models' bias has turned outright bearish on Friday, and will remain bearish while the daily close is below 4400. While the index is between 4400 and 4350, expect sideways consolidation and a choppy market. It remains to be seen if this morning's surge above 4400 will be convincing enough for our models to abandon the bearish bias by tomorrow. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4430, 4419, 4401, or 4392 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4425, 4416, 4405, 4399, or 4388 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit short exits on a break above 4407. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 12:01pm EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #bankdowngrades
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
NASDAQ INDEX (US100): Your Trading Plan US100 is currently testing a solid horizontal resistance. The formation of a doji candle on that indicates a local equilibrium between buying and selling volumes. To sell the underlined structure with a confirmation, monitor 4H time frame The index formed a double top pattern there and consolidates. Bearish breakout of 14880 neckline and a 4H candle close below that, will be a strong bearish signal. Goals will be 14760 / 14680. Alternatively, a new higher high higher close on a 4H will invalidate the setup. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by VasilyTrader
10
Bulls Need a Daily Close Above 4400S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 08/22 In our trading plans published Thu. 08/17, we wrote: "The index is approaching the 4400 level this morning. If it breaks down, then 4385 will be the next support". The index closed below that level on Thursday, and took down multiple support levels since then, and our models' bias has turned outright bearish on Friday, and will remain bearish while the daily close is below 4400. While the index is between 4400 and 4350, expect sideways consolidation and a choppy market. It remains to be seen if this morning's attempt to push the index above 4400 will sustain till the end of the session. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4415, 4408, 4400, 4392, or 4381 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4413, 4406, 4397, 4388, or 4369 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4378, and explicit short exits on a break above 4371. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:01am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #fitch
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
S&P500 Target achieved. Now looking for a rebound.The S&P500 index (SPX) hit our 4350 Sell Target that we set on last week's idea (see chart below) and immediately started a two day rebound: This rebound is taking place just above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as the Resistance. We've mentioned countless times that the long-term pattern is a Channel Up since the October 13 2022 market bottom and this rebound is taking place after the 1D RSI hit the 33.30, which was the level where the March 13 bottom was priced. As a result, the current level is a strong candidate for a new long-term buy, targeting 4640 (March 29 2022 High), despite the fact that the previous two correctional waves to a Lower Low declined at least by -9.00%. The bullish confirmation will come when the 1D MACD makes a Bullish Cross. It just touched the top of its 9 month Support Zone. If however the price closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA100, we will add a sell for short-term profit, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at the bottom of the Channel Up at 4220 (just above a projected -9.00% decline) and then add a second (and final) buy that will naturally target 4640 as well. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
Sideways Between Key LevelsS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 08/21 In our trading plans published Thu. 08/17, we wrote: "The index is approaching the 4400 level this morning. If it breaks down, then 4385 will be the next support". The index closed below that level on Thursday, and took down multiple support levels since then, and our models' bias has turned outright bearish on Friday, and will remain bearish while the daily close is below 4400. While the index is between 4400 and 4350, expect sideways consolidation and a choppy market. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4402, 4387, 4373, 4351, or 4341 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4398, 4383, 4361, 4348, or 4339 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4370, and explicit short exits on a break above 4365. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 12:46pm EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #fitch
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
A Generational Mean Reversion is now UnderwayLast week I posted my long-term perspective of the SPX cash market from inception . This is the reverse of that. I am not an economist. I'm a pattern analyst and trader. Nonetheless, as a student of the economy, I find that rarely do fundamentals align with a technical forecast. I try to encourage my members to abstain from applying linear thinking to trading the markets. Case in point was the recent release of the CPI report. Prior to the release of that report CNBC contributor, Fundstrat Partner and America's favorite perma bull, Tom Lee, was quoted as saying... "Investors should expect a "sizable rally" in the stock market following the Thursday release of the July CPI report", according to Fundstrat's Tom lee. Post CPI release, the report was fairly in line with expectations, but the market sold off, and continued to sell off. There was no massive stock market rally post CPI release. How did that make sense? It's easy to proclaim bullish calls since the last 90 years in the stock market has been pretty much a 45-degree angle up from left to right on a chart. Statically, being bullish was good for business, attracts new clients, and no one likes a pessimist. The time horizons of the two financial disciplines (Fundamental vs. Technical) are typically not aligned... unless those time horizons are long... very long . A long time horizon doesn't suit traders, they suit investors. But the more I delve into long term charts, the more I reflect on how this affects me, my family, and the generations to come. I have shared my longer term perspective on the SP500 with my followers many times. I rarely, if ever, look at bonds. I don't trade them, and in terms of making a paycheck, my time is better spent elsewhere. Except this morning I decided to look at the 10-year bond yield. To me it's just another data point supporting my overall thesis that the markets are beginning a super cycle event that will play out over the course of the next couple decades. On a recent conference call with members, I remarked that I received a direct message from a member who complained I was too bearish. I then apologized to attendees on the call because it is not within my nature to be pessimistic, or someone mired in doom and gloom. Shout out to Nouriel Roubini . But I concluded by showing my 150-year analysis of the SPX cash market on my screen via Zoom and concluded, "Unfortunately for the duration of the time you will ever know me, I will be bearish". The above chart is a typical pattern that will play out. I cannot over emphasize that the pathway outlined above is run of the mill. Nothing about the above should shock any technician. This would be the same pattern outcome on any financial instrument given the above price action...it just happens to be the 10y bond yield. But my foray into the 10y bond yield chart has me thinking the following answers apply to the below questions. Will mortgage rates come down in the short term so I can buy a house? The chart above suggests in the intermediate term, yields will continue to rise into early to mid-2024 before retreating somewhat. However, if my analysis is correct...the areas of where they are now are going to be areas of short term mean reversion back up. It is from our current rate, that all subsequent yield rises will draw support from. So, my response to that question is, the time to buy a home will not be much better than right now in my life-time...it will only get incrementally less efficient to hold such a long-term loan. With $5-6 trillion in money market funds (so called on the "Sidelines") how could the stock market decline by much with so much money available to potentially prop it up? The above chart tells me the competition for cash and cash equivalents on a risk adjusted basis has not been this disadvantaged towards the stock market since the financial crisis of 2008. In my opinion, that disadvantage will only incrementally get worst. Cash will not be deployed into stocks like generations before based on competition and the risk associated. P/E ratios, book value...none of that is front and center as it pertains to those trillions of dollars. Cash being deployed now will always be gauging the associated risk/reward. That factor makes this different from all other equity market downturns. Although so much of what I am uncovering manifests itself into our daily lives over the course of years and decades, and not weeks and months...therefore, we’re more likely to embrace apathy vs panic. Nonetheless, I do view many markets through the lenses of long term mean reversion. I am still evaluating how that perspective can best be converted into action for long term benefit. I’m optimistic I have some time…(see I’m not entirely negative). Best to all, Chris
TVC:US10Y
by maikisch