S&P 500 E-Mini Futures
How Long Will This Precarious Rally Continue?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 07/28
In our trading plans yesterday, we published: "The risk continues to be to the downside, so longs might want to be cautious; however, bears have to wait for their opportunity strike and not jump the gun". There was a little pull back - bears should not rejoice, yet.
The question on everybody's mind - whether they are a bull or a bear or a bystander - is: "How long can this rally continue?". And, nobody knows - or, can know - the answer, of course. But, as long as there are doubters, the rally will still have some steam left in it - mostly, feasting on short squeezes.
The rest of this week's earnings should shed some more light on how the markets are shaping up in the wake of the sticky inflation. If they continue to appear to be on track or with a bias to the upside surprises then the next bull leg could get well entrenched. But, If the earnings show any unexpected weakness ("unexpected" is the key word there), then we might have seen an interim top.
The previously stated level of 4575-4580 is now the key support/resistance level, with the 4603-4610 range the next resistance level.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4598, 4584, 4575, or 4555 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4588, 4570, 4563, 4550, or 4535 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4545 or 4580, and explicit short exits on a break above 4540 or 4583. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:01am EST or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
Positional Trading Plans:
Our positional models continue to indicate staying out of the markets until otherwise stated.
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings
S&P 500, 7/28/23For Friday, 4576.75 can contain session strength, below which 4488.25 remains 3 - 5 day target able to contain weekly selling pressures, and essentially the start of a wide zone down to 4391.25 able to absorb selling through August activity.
Upside Friday, pushing/opening above 4576.75 allows 4638.25 intraday, also able to contain session strength and the level to settle above for yielding the significant 4670.50 - 4682.50 region by the end of next week, able to contain buying through August activity.
The Bull-Goldilocks Is Humming AlongS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 07/27
Almost as everyone and their grandmother predicted, the FOMC hiked another 25 basis points. With the FOMC faded into the background, earnings stories would continue to set the market tone until they begin to feel the bull run fatigue setting in. The risk continues to be to the downside, so longs might want to be cautious; however, bears have to wait for their opportunity strike and not jump the gun.
The rest of this week's earnings should shed some more light on how the markets are shaping up in the wake of the sticky inflation. If they continue to appear to be on track or with a bias to the upside surprises then the next bull leg could get well entrenched. But, If the earnings show any unexpected weakness ("unexpected" is the key word there), then we might have seen an interim top.
The previously stated level of 4575-4580 is now the immediate support level, while 4603-4610 are the next resistance level.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4598, 4584, 4575, or 4568 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4588, 4572, or 4563 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4593 or 4580, and explicit short exits on a break above 4583. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:31am EST or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
Positional Trading Plans:
Our positional models continue to indicate staying out of the markets until otherwise stated.
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #fomc, #powell, #interestrates
S&P500 This new Channel Up can lead it to the All Time High.The S&P500 (SPX) index has been rising non-stop and appears not to be influenced by yesterday's Fed Rate Decision. The price reached however the top of Channel Up 1, the pattern that has been driving the price action since the October 13 2022 Bear Cycle bottom. This calls for a technical pull-back similar to the December 01 2022 and February 02 2023 Higher Highs, however that can only be confirmed after the 1D RSI breaks below its Higher Lows trend-line, which is exactly what happened on those fractals.
Until then, and as long as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is supporting (has been unbroken since March 29), the more recent Channel Up 2, can lead the price to the 4820 All Time High (ATH) of January 04 2022. Of course before that Resistance 1 (March 29 2022 High) is present at 4640, so since Channel Up 2 is also on its top (Higher Highs trend-line), we can consider a Megaphone (sideways) consolidation, similar to what took place in April. As long as its hits the 1D MA50 and rebounds, we will be bullish, targeting 4820 on the new bullish leg (green arc).
On the other hand if the index does close a 1D candle below the 1D MA50 and the 1D RSI breaks below its Higher Lows trend-line, we will sell and target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 4250.
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ES1! Supply and Demand LevelsLink to chart: www.tradingview.com
I felt compelled to share this as we are starting to enter a previous 2022 resistance level.
It looks like we have the bulls to move up higher before we hit this bears territory.
Nonetheless, we will stay patient to let the charts and price action determine how we will execute.
I am using ES as a confluence/indicator for when I trade NQ, as they ride along each other.
I do not have any certain direction that the market will take to post as I normally do, but just watching the levels listed on my chart and price action to show me what trades I should take the day of.
S&P 500, 7/27/23For Thursday, 4632.75 can contain session strength, 4558.75 in reach and able to contain session weakness.
Closing today below 4536.75 signals 4482.75 within 3 - 5 days, where the market can bottom out through next week, and the point to settle below for indicating the more meaningful 4386.25 within 3 - 5 more days, able to absorb selling pressures through August trade.
Upside Thursday, closing above 4632.75 indicates a test tomorrow of the significant 4670.50 - 4682.50 region, able to contain buying through August activity.
S&P500 Short term pull back technically possibleThe S&P500 / US500 touched the 4hour MA50 after the Fed Rate Decision for the first time since July 11th.
This isn't a medium term buy signal as the current 2 month Channel Up, has given two strong buy entries lower, on the 4hour MA100.
We expect the price to hit it at 4510. Buy there and target the Channel Up Top at 4630 (under Resistance A).
The 4hour MACD Bear Cross formation, also hints to a pullback.
Previous chart:
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Is the Inflation Fight Still Relevant? We Shall Find Out Today!S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 07/26
With a quarter-point rate increase almost a given, today's FOMC meeting may be a non-event, and earnings could be the driving force for the next few weeks. Only some unexpectedly negative revelations/indications from Chair Powell today could influence the markets - otherwise, the FOMC release and the presser could be just fading into the background. The risk is to the downside, so longs might want to be cautious.
Earnings so far this season indicate strong positive momentum. This week's earnings should shed some light on how the markets are shaping up in the wake of the sticky inflation. If they continue to appear to be on track or with a bias to the upside surprises then the next bull leg could get well entrenched. But, If the earnings show any unexpected weakness ("unexpected" is the key word there), then we might have seen an interim top.
The previously stated level of 4525-4535 is now a key area of support; 4575-4580 is the next area of resistance.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4581 or 4532 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4575 or 4529 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate no explicit exits. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 02:50pm EST or later (i.e, way into the Chair Powell's press conference).
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
Positional Trading Plans:
Our positional models indicate staying out of the markets until otherwise stated.
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session.
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #fomc, #powell, #interestrates
Bulls and Bears Zone for 07-26-2023So far this week, markets sold off during ETH session to rally during RTH session.
Any test of yesterday's Low could provide direction for the day.
Level to watch: 4581 --- 4583
Reports to watch:
US: New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
US:EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
US:FOMC Announcement
2:00 PM ET
US: Fed Chair Press Conference
2:30 PM ET
S&P 500, 7/26/23For Wednesday, 4627.50 can contain session strength, 4556.75 in reach and able to contain session weakness.
Closing today below 4536.75 signals 4477.25 within several days, where the market can bottom out through next week, and the point to settle below for indicating the more meaningful 4385.50 within 3 - 5 more days, able to absorb selling pressures through August trade.
Upside Wednesday, closing above 4627.50 indicates a test tomorrow of the significant 4670.50 - 4682.50 region, able to contain buying through August activity.
S&P 500 analysis for: 7/25/23For Tuesday, 4622.25 can contain session strength, below which 4493.75 is attainable by Friday’s close.
Inside this wide range,4592.75 and contain intraday buying, and 4528.00 intraday weakness.
Breaking 4528.00 allows 4493.75 intraday, able to contain session weakness.
Closing below 4493.75 indicates 4471.50 tomorrow, where the market can place a weekly low, and the point to settle below for indicating the more meaningful 4375.50 by the end of next week, able to absorb selling pressures through August trade.
Upside Tuesday, pushing/opening above 4592.75 allows 4622.25 intraday, able to contain session strength and the level to settle above for yielding the significant 4670.50 - 4682.50 region within several days, able to contain buying through August activity.
Earnings to Trump FOMC this Week?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 07/24
With a quarter-point rate increase almost a given, the July FOMC meeting may be a non-event, and earnings could be the driving force for the next few weeks. This week's earnings should shed some light on how the markets are shaping up in the wake of the sticky inflation.
Earnings so far this season indicate strong positive momentum. If the earnings continue to appear to be on track or with a bias to the upside surprises then the next bull leg could get well entrenched. But, If the earnings show any unexpected weakness ("unexpected" is the key word there), then we might have seen an interim top.
The previously stated level of 4525-4535 is now a key area of support, and 4575-4580 is the next area of resistance.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate staying out of the markets until otherwise stated.
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session.
Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4562, 4545, or 4532 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4559, 4540, or 4529 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4548. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 02:31pm EST or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings
Futures on BTC and S&P500: The ratio you should considerThe main chart is the ratio between Futures on BTC and S&P500
👉 Bitcoin CME Futures contracts are equal to 5 bitcoin, as defined by the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR)
👉 E-mini S&P500 Futures contracts are equal to 50 x S&P500 Index
Special remarks
😀 The Support Area and Resistance Areas are as highlighted on the chart.
😊 Since Bitcoin CME Futures were launched in Dec, 2017, S&P500 outperforms BTC to nowadays.
😁 Bitcoin has NO BALANCE SHEET, EARNGINS AND NEVER PAY DIVIDENDS
S&P 500, 7/24/23The 4670.50 - 4682.50 region can contain buying through August, once tested 4375.00 attainable within 3 - 5 weeks where the market can bottom out through September trade.
A daily settlement below 4375.00 indicates 4155.50 long-term support over the following 3 - 5 weeks, able to contain selling through the balance of the year.
Upside, a daily settlement above 4682.50 indicates the 4808.25, January 2022 high within several weeks, and onto new highs within several months.
-
For Monday, 4616.75 can contain session strength, below which 4493.75 is attainable by Friday’s close.
Inside this wide range, 4572.50 and contain intraday buying, and 4528.00 intraday weakness.
Breaking 4528.00 allows 4493.75 intraday, able to contain session weakness.
Closing below 4493.75 indicates 4466.25 tomorrow, where the market can place a weekly low, and the point to settle below for indicating the more meaningful 4375.00 by the end of next week, able to absorb selling pressures through August trade.
Upside Monday, pushing/opening above 4572.50 allows 4616.75 intraday, able to contain session strength and the level to settle above for yielding the significant 4670.50 - 4682.50 region within several days, able to contain buying through August activity.
Volatile Triple Witching FridayS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 07/21
Today being the Triple Witching Friday would likely lead to artificial spikes in either direction, leading to a choppy market action. Unless you are a professional trader or a long term positional trader, you might want to sit out today's market volatility.
This week's earnings should shed some light on how the markets are shaping up in the wake of the sticky inflation. With a quarter-point rate increase almost a given, the July FOMC meeting may be a non-event, and earnings could be the driving force for the next few weeks.
Early earnings so far indicate strong earnings momentum. If the earnings continue to appear to be on track or with a bias to the upside surprises then the next bull leg could get well entrenched. But, If the earnings show any unexpected weakness ("unexpected" is the key word there), then we might have seen an interim top.
The previously stated level of 4500-4505 is now a key area of support, and 4575-4580 is the next area of resistance.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate staying out of the markets until otherwise stated.
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session.
Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4561, 4555, or 4532 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4552, 4539, or 4529 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4559, and explicit short exits on a break above 4542. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:01am EST or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings
ES - S&P Example Of Multiple Reactions Off Of A ActionSo, here comes a little lessen, that could have a huge impact on your Trading.
Many of you know that in my arsenal of tools I use the Medianline/Pitchfork tool very often. It's my best tool to project the path of price, find extremes and centers in the markets.
One day, I was stepping back in the world of Action/Reaction and started to research on the wisdom of Dr. Allan Andrews and Babson. I modified their Action/Reaction model in a new way.
Here's what I have found so far:
1. Identify the correct "last" Pivot (Anker 1).
2. Identify the last Low (Anker 3).
3. Wait, until Anker Pivot 1 is broken, and the market did a pullback (Anker Pivot 2).
If you're at point 3., this means that price already shoot up again above the Anker Pivot 1, and preferable even higher as the last Pivot above Anker Pivot 1.
From now on, you can observe, how price is behaving at the Reaction lines (Yellow R's).
How to trade it, use it?
Well, that's upon yourself.
Or, you may wait for a course I'm maybe planning.
But I highly recommend you study it and make your hands dirty §8-)
Happy Trading
S&P 500 Futures Market, 7/21/23For Friday, 4611.25 can contain session strength, 4567.50 likely to contain initial selling, while breaking/opening below 4567.50 allows 4493.75 intraday, able to contain session weakness.
Closing below 4493.75 indicates 4456.00 on Monday, where the market can bottom out through next week, and the start of a wide zone of midterm support on a 4369.50 able to absorb selling pressures through August trade.
Upside Friday, pushing/opening above 4611.25 allows 4655.25 intraday, the start of a range of midterm resistance up to 4676.00 able to contain buying through August activity.