S&P 500 E-Mini Futures
Dow Jones Index (US30): Time to Fall!
US30 Index reached a key daily structure resistance on Friday.
After a local indecision, the market formed a double top pattern on 1H time frame
and broke its neckline to the downside then.
I expect a bearish continuation now.
Goals: 33660 / 33560
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S&P 500, 6/5/23The 4212.00 long-term resistance area can contain selling through the balance of the year, above which 4563.25 remains a 3 - 5 month objective, the 4808.25, January 2022 all-time high expected by the end of the year.
Upside this week, 4399.00 can contain weekly buying pressures, with a settlement above 4399.00 indicating 4563.25 within 3 - 5 weeks, able to contain buying on a monthly basis and the formation settle above for accelerating the 4808.25 longer-term objective to within 2 - 3 months.
Downside, a weekly settlement below 4212.00 would be considered a significant failed long-term buy signal, in essence indicating 3898.25 within 2 - 3 months.
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For Monday, 4309.25 can contain session strength, 4264.25 in reach and able to contain session weakness.
Closing today below 4264.25 signals 4200.50 - 4212.00 within several days, long-term support able to contain selling through the balance of the year, and above which 4563.25 remains 3 - 5 month objective.
Upside Monday, pushing/opening above 4309.25 should yield at least 4327.50, possibly 4355.50 intraday, while closing today above 4309.25 indicates the targeted 4399.00 within 3 - 5 days, able to contain buying through next week and the level to settle above for accelerating the 4563.25 objective to within 3 - 5 weeks.
S&P500 Closed above the 1W MA100 after almost 300 days.Major bullish signal for the S&P500 (SPX) as it closed a 1W (weekly) candle above the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since the week of August 15 2022. That was the weekly candle that formed the next Resistance 1 in line, the 4330 level (Aug 16 High).
The 1W RSI has already broken above its Rising Wedge since two weeks ago and the 4330 Resistance 1 test seems inevitable. That will be the final barrier before testing the 4640 level of Resistance 2 (March 28 2022 High).
Needless to say, the index is long past the Bear Cycle, having broken above the Lower Highs trend-line, with the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) in Support. The target of the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern (Fibonacci 2.0) is marginally above Resistance 2.
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ES1! SPX500USD 2023 JUNE 05 WEEKES1! SPX500USD 2023 JUNE 05 WEEK
Once price breaks out of 4303 and it becomes support,
market will likely test next level 4584.
Scenario Planning:
1) Continuation long: Long on retracement
Note:
Longer Term: 4150 need to hold as support in order for
long trend to remain intact.
Volume Analysis:
Daily/Weekly: Ave vol up bar close toward high = NTC strength
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4584-4525 4303 4150
*NTC = Non Trend Changing
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
*For educational purpose only.
Opening (Margin): /ES September 29th 2100 Short Put... for a 3.00 credit.
Comments: Targeting the strike that is 50% of current price that is paying around 3.00 in credit. 1.50/$150 max (due to the multiplier) on buying power of 9.23/$923; 16.3% ROC as a function of buying power at max; 8.1% at 50% max.
A basic bet that we don't see 2100 by the end of September in the S&P 500; alternatively, a bet that my order to close this will hit 50% max before then.
Naturally, if we get higher volatility and weakness, I'll look to add in shorter duration/better strikes.
Pivoting to Jobs, Inflation, and Interest Rates?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 06/02
We started last trading week with our trading plans on Monday titled: "Debt Ceiling Deadline Likely to Whipsaw the Markets", and these words: "Expect the approaching debt ceiling deadline to attract both bulls and bears to heightened speculation, resulting in some whipsaw movements until the deadline passes and the dust settles".
With the Senate passing the debt ceiling bill, the curtains are now drawn on that drama. With the much hotter than expected NFP numbers, the markets could soon be pivoting to a focus on the macroeconomic factors again. Currently, our directional models indicate no bias and are in an indeterminate state.
Positional Trading Models: Following the trading plans published yesterday, our positional models went short at 4225.83 with a hard stop at 4242. If the stop is hit, the models indicate staying flat for the rest of the session.
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session.
Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans for FRI. 06/02:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4250, 4231, 4206, or 4197 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4247, 4227, 4194, or 4184 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit short exits on a break above 4189. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:46am ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #regionalbanks, #debtceiling, #china, #nfp, #jobs
Dow Jones Index (US30): Bullish Reversal 📈
Dow Jones reached an important wide horizontal demand zone on a daily time frame one week ago.
The price started to consolidate on that and formed a double bottom pattern with a higher low.
Today, after the NFP release, the market bounced and set a new local higher high, violating the neckline of the pattern - the last lower high.
It looks like a classic bullish reversal pattern.
The index will most likely keep growing to 33540
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All in the Stride, 2 Jun 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Equities shot up to continue the upward march. A Buy signal was triggered and executed. The previous Short position was flipped into a Buy but only after suffering further loss. Clearly the Strategy(ies) are confidently Bullish.
➤ If we look at the movement of the S&P500 equity index since the March bottom we can observe the character of the movement so far. Prices initially accelerated up into April. It proceeded higher with a two steps up, one step down type of progression.
➤ The step down has become shallower and shallower. This sort of behaviour can be thought of as people chasing the market or being more confident to buy the market. They are not willing to wait for lower prices. This is more obvious with the movement in the NASDAQ and mega tech stocks.
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Surely that only leads to one conclusion: Markets are headed higher.
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
S&P 500, 6/2/23For Friday, the 4202.00 - 4220.00 area can contain session weakness, 4260.50, possibly 4281.50 in reach today, where the market can place a daily high.
Overall, a weekly settlement today above 4220.00 signals longer-term bullish continuation, 4309.25 then expected within several weeks, 4548.00 over the next 3 - 5 months (rising steadily).
Downside Friday, breaking/opening below 4202.00 allows 4170.50 intraday, while closing today below 4202.00 will keep the market prone to bearish rotation into July trade, 4093.25 then in reach by the end of next week, 4012.00 by the end of June.
Analyse of The S&P 500 Hello Folks.
The S&p 500 just breached the high at4227.25 of the candle of 19 May and rejected the Monthly C.E of the wick of the august candle, if the price retarce to the daily FVG showen here and find support at it i think that the high 4243.25 could be taken. if the price didn't respect the daily FVG and passes trough it i will treat it as a IFVG and i will look to take the Weekly SSL at the low 4114.00.
im open to all new idea and criticisms in the comment section
S&P500 Near the top on two patterns. Pull back possible.S&P500 is testing Resistance (1) on the Channel Up inside the larger Megaphone pattern. Currently it is at the top on two separate patterns.
The MA50 (1d) is supporting the Channel Up and the MA200 (1d) the Megaphone.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
2. Buy on Support (1).
3. Sell under Support (2).
Targets:
1. 4175 (Support 1).
2. 4300 (top of Channel Up).
3. 4000 (bottom of Megaphone and near MA200 1d).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) Highs (70.00) and Lows (30.00) match perfectly the Tops and Bottoms of the Channel Up. Use this to your advantage. RSI values of 70.00 are to be sold while values of 30.00 to be bought, as long as the Channel Up holds.
Please like, follow and comment!!
Notes:
Past trading plan:
Debt Ceiling Deal Euphoria - RekindledS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 06/01
We started this trading week yesterday with these words: "Now that the Debt Ceiling drama is apparently over ("apparently" is the keyword there), can the markets continue to be intoxicated on the nVidia-A.I. exuberance and continue the bullish leg or get back to the macro-economic fundamentals of inflation, valuation, china-slowdown (bad news good news here, with hopes of China stimulus?) etc.? A couple of sessions into this shortened week shall reveal. Till then, caution might be warranted on the part of the bulls".
We started last trading week with our trading plans on Monday titled: "Debt Ceiling Deadline Likely to Whipsaw the Markets", and these words: "Expect the approaching debt ceiling deadline to attract both bulls and bears to heightened speculation, resulting in some whipsaw movements until the deadline passes and the dust settles".
The dust might be settling this week or early next week. The direction in which it settles would determine the next directional bias in the markets. Currently, our directional models indicate no bias and are in an indeterminate state.
Positional Trading Models: Following the trading plans published earlier in the week, our positional models went short on the close yesterday, at 4179.84, with a 52-point trailing stop. With the session's low recorded at 4171.64, the current trigger of the stop is at 4231.84. If this is hit, the models indicate going short again on a break below 4228 with a hard stop at 4242.
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session.
Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans for THU. 06/01:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4222, 4198, 4187, or 4156 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4125, 4194, 4184, or 4150 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit exits for the day. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 01:46pm ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #regionalbanks, #debtceiling, #china
Inching Higher, 1 Jun 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Markets pulled back but in the short-term, it is still zig-zagging upwards. It is inching higher and so is the hurdle required to proof the case for a new Bull market.
➤ For May, the monthly price failed to close above the Feb high just like in prior months. It has however put in a place a higher high. The higher high at 422.58 on the SPY is the new monthly hurdle that needs to be eclipsed. It is both hope and a struggle. The hope is for a new Bull market, the struggle is to get there. Picture a tiring swimmer that is treading water, getting closer to safety but barely keeping afloat.
➤ I hold a small short position.
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Pricing is setting up for a high conviction short opportunity but I also said that many times in May. It failed to materialise into a trade.
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
ES UpdateWell I flipped my BUD puts on open for decent returns, ES MFI hit oversold yesterday but RSI is hung up in the middle. The question here is do the algos pump on MFI being oversold or do they wait until RSI hits it?
I'm inclined to believe they're gonna pump because the market is stupid, lol.