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S&P 500 E-Mini Futures

ES UpdateMFI isn't overbought yet, so we could see a gap fill attempt before the next drop All I did was break even today because I lost money on BITO puts, made money on ROST and TGT puts. I guess retail was the way to go. PTON and BUD were a wash. Gonna wait until MFI hits overbought and try again, no shitcoin though, lol. Also someone asked me about gold yesterday, it was down all night but then went up premarket because gold goes up any time bank stocks go down. Hard to short.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by hungry_hippo
S&P 500, 5/23/23For Tuesday, the 4214.00 - 4228.00 region can contain buying through Q3, below which 4023.00 is likely by the end of June, lower into later Q3.   Downside Tuesday, 4189.00 can contain intraday weakness, while breaking/opening below 4189.00 allows 4145.50 intraday, able to contain selling into later week and the point to settle below for signaling 4023.00 - 4029.75 midterm support by the end of next week.   Upside Tuesday, pushing/opening above 4228.00 signals 4264.50 intraday, while closing above 4228.00 allows 4327.50 within the week.   Overall, a clear weekly settlement above 4228.00 indicates 4392.00 within 2-3 weeks, 4532.50 within several months, higher into later year.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
Hesistancy, 23 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Yesterday I discussed the potential bullish narrative resulting from a "re-accumulation" phase. Today I'd like to explore the bearish narrative in the form of "distribution". ➤ Distribution is the result of Whales reducing or selling out of their previously accumulated positions. Obviously, they wish to get the best price when exiting. This can be done by drip-feeding sells as prices push higher. The last buyer is normally the retail investor who is late to the party. Once the initial rush of retail buying starts to dry up, a consolidation forms where the demand and supply is largely balanced. This is where Whales start unloading larger positions helping to keep a ceiling on the price. ➤ Looking at the current price action, we can either view it as a re-test of the breakout (bullish scenario) or it is "hesistancy" - hesitancy at the resistance (yes I made that word up). It may result in the price reversing back into the range (an "upthrust" action). This could signal the stage of the distribution phase at which Whales start dumping the remainder of their positions indiscriminantly as retail buyers dry up. The result is a quick cascading fall. ➤ This hesistancy has forced me out of my long position for a minor loss, one of the outcomes I outlined before. My trade signals can be very sensistive even to minute price movements. I hold a small remaining short position as part of the secondary strategy. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 So is it accumulation or distribution? EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
Debt Ceiling Deadline Likely to Whipsaw the MarketsS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 05/22 Our stance last couple of weeks has been: "Our models are indicating an initial bias towards an inflection point coming soon. Barring any unexpected bullish development showing up on the horizon, chances are that this could be unwinding to the downside". Looks like potentially arriving at some kind of agreement on debt ceiling and avoiding a potential U.S. default is being masqueraded as that "unexpected bullish development" (which almost everyone expected anyway). Whether this move is going to be the start of the next leg up or to be a classic pump-and-dump remains to be seen. For now, the force appears to be with the bulls, possibly aided by the squeeze of retail, leveraged shorts. Expect the approaching debt ceiling deadline to attract both bulls and bears to heightened speculation, resulting in some whipsaw movements until the deadline passes and the dust settles. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models are flashing a potential bull trap ahead if this week's move up proves unsustainable. Models indicate going short at the close if today's close is to be below 4147 (activated at 3:59pm). If opened a short, models indicate instituting a hard stop at 4187. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans for MON. 05/22: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4212, 4201, 4186, 4177, or 4165 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4205, 4198, 4183, 4173, or 4161 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4208, and short exits on a break above 4209. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:31am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #regionalbanks, #debtceiling
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
S&P500 New Bullish Cross can take it higher.The S&P500 index (SPX) hit last week our long awaited 4190 target, a level we set 2 months ago (see idea below): That trade was taken right before the 1D MACD formed a Bullish Cross, the 2nd within the long-term Channel Up pattern. Last Thursday, the index completed the 3rd Bullish Cross of the Channel Up and continues to rise within a shorter term Rising Wedge. With the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) intact as a Support since March 29, and the price breaking above the (former) 4195 Resistance, we remain bullish and will buy again: a) if the price pulls back near the bottom of the Rising Wedge and target 4250 or b) if it closes a 1D candle above the Rising Wedge and target 4280 (top of Channel Up). Similarly, we will sell the break-out if it closes below the 1D MA50 and target the bottom of Support Zone 2 and the Channel Up (Higher Lows trend-line) at 3950. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
ULong
by TradingShot
3
S&P 500, 5/22/23The 4215.75 - 4228.00 long-term resistance area can contain buying through Q3, below which 4023.00 is likely by the end of June, 3852.25 attainable over the next several months, where the market can bottom out on a quarterly basis.   Upside, a weekly settlement above 4228.00 should mark the resumption of a long-term bull market, then anticipating 4532.50 within 2 - 3 months, a retest of the 4808.25, January 2022 all-time high by the end of the year.   Downside, a weekly settlement below 4023.00 signals 3852.25 by the end of June, where the market can bottom out through Q3. - For Monday, the 4215.75 - 4228.00 region can contain buying through Q3, below which 4023.00 is likely by the end of June, lower into later Q3.   Downside Monday, 4190.00 can contain intraday weakness, while breaking/opening below 4190.00 allows 4139.00 intraday, able to contain selling into later week and the point to settle below for signaling 4023.00 - 4031.75 midterm support by the end of next week.   Upside Monday, pushing/opening above 4228.00 allows 4285.25 intraday, while closing above 4228.00 allows 4327.50 within the week.   Overall, a clear weekly settlement above 4228.00 indicates 4392.00 within 2 - 3 weeks, 4532.50 within several months, higher into later year.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
Textbook, 22 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Due to unpopular demand there will be no more rhyme. I guess I will stick with Trading as my full-time job. ➤ We currently have a textbook re-test of the breakout above the recent consolidation in the S&P500. We will need to re-label the consolidation as a "re-accumulation" if it proves to be a bullish. Re-accumulation simply means that the Whales have been buying up while trying to shake loose Weak Hands. This is the only method for increasing their overall holding without moving prices higher (hence the ups and downs within the consolidation). ➤ That being said my secondary strategy has triggered a Short trade. This means we are partially hedged with a large bullish position and a minor bearish position. Remember, these are independent trades. Either both could be right or both wrong or split eachway. It just depends on how price evolves. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
S&P500: Pull-back short term but new Bull Cycle ahead.S&P500 has almost reached the medium-term TP (4,220) so we are booking the profit on last Friday's buy position. The 1W timeframe is on steady green levels technically (RSI = 58.257, MACD = 54.060, ADX = 33.739) but the RSI is at the top of its Rising Wedge, indicating a possible loss of strength. We expect a pull-back to S1 and will buy it, targeting R1 (TP = 4,330), which is the High of August 2022. On the long term the bullish trend is intact (Channel Up) and we have an additional reason to expect a new Bull Cycle, as the 1W Ichimoku Cloud has turned green and when that happened in the past, the 1W MA50 usually turns into the long term Support for many months before a correction. Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500
by InvestingScope
15
Powell to Help Set Some Direction Today?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 05/19 Our stance last couple of weeks has been: "Our models are indicating an initial bias towards an inflection point coming soon. Barring any unexpected bullish development showing up on the horizon, chances are that this could be unwinding to the downside". Looks like potentially arriving at some kind of agreement on debt ceiling and avoiding a potential U.S. default is being masqueraded as that "unexpected bullish development" (which almost everyone expected anyway). Whether this move is going to be the start of the next leg up or to be a classic pump-and-dump remains to be seen. For now, the force appears to be with the bulls, possibly aided by the squeeze of retail, leveraged shorts. Markets would be trying to split the hair and parse every word from Powell's speech today to desperately gain some sense of direction. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models are flashing a potential bull trap ahead if this week's move up proves unsustainable. Models indicate going short at the close if today's close is to be below 4147 (activated at 3:59pm). If opened a short, models indicate instituting a hard stop at 4187. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans for FRI. 05/19: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4212, 4205, 4198, 4186, 4177, or 4165 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4194, 4183, 4173, or 4161 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4208 or 4101. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:01am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #regionalbanks, #debtceiling, #powellspeech, #powell
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
SG10Y Govt Bond and SPY relationship Part VConditions appear to be shifting really quickly... just a few days ago, it appeared that the SG10Y Govt Bond was going to break a low and go further down, sending the correlated S&P500 (and other indexes rallying up. BUT, it brooke down and recovered very quickly. NOW, it appears to be ready to break UP and out of the downtrend line. This has happened before, including the indication of the MACD (shown here this time), where there is also a bullish divergence and just now, a crossover of the MACD on the Signal line. Therefore, expecting a repeat of early Feb 2023, and IF this is the case, then the corresponding SPY action would be a lower high and a breakdown (red dotted arrow projects the SPY (blue line). Watch the next 5 trading days... critical clues will be revealed. Btw, if this scenario is played out, then the USD should concomitantly be bearish, Gold bullish, Crude bearish for the most part, etc. Also... for those who are like keen to get the SG bonds, the yields should be rising, not dropping, so no need to rush. Have a good idea of what might happen (don't listen wholesale to those who want to get you to buy stuff), then make a plan to have that idea happen. So far, five parts to this story, and so far it is holding the correlation as expected.
TVC:SG10Y
by Auguraltrader
S&P 500, 5/19/23For Friday, 4191.00 can contain session strength, once tested 4120.00 in reach within several days, able to contain session weakness.   A daily settlement below 4120.00 signals 4033.75 - 4036.50 midterm support by the end of next week, able to contain selling through June activity.   Holding above 4036.50 will keep 4236.00 long-term resistance in reach over the next 2 - 3 weeks, while closing below 4033.75 indicates 3967.75 within 1 - 2 weeks, possibly 3847.25 by the end of June.   Upside Friday, closing above 4191.00 indicates the targeted 4219.25 - 4236.00 within several days, able to contain buying through Q3, and a significant upside continuation point into later year.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
Breakout, 19 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 "The market has broken out, So has my trading drought, We are back in the action, Will we profit? That is the question." ➤ The colour theme of today's chart background is fire 🔥 because it looks like the equity market is red hot. Is the Bear market over? It's certainly pointing that way. 👆 ➤ To be frank, I'm not a big fan of breakout trades. It probably worked very well during those times before I was born but these days there are more fakeouts. Price may either completely reverse or sometimes retrace the break. Both actions can result in an exit for a loss. ➤ If I lose, I guess I can always quit trading and make money through rhymes...Oh wait there's CHATGPT. ➤ I'm long with a large position ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 MrStocky the Sometime Trader, Rhymer of Words, King of Patience, Protector of Profit (but not yet the King of Copytrading) EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Trends continue to battle within the 4100-4200 rangeSo with us back at the top of the range bound area we have been in of 4100-4200, the longer term trend of a 6hr has provided a lower high entry point. After getting stopped out from my previous entry point I've gone back in again at 4181. Being that the 30m/1hr/2hr and now 6hr are calling for a pull back down, and we are not above the funnel range of the 4hr and 3hr, I fully expect things to head back down here soon. We do have a 12hr that can still hit an uptrend, and we are not outside the range of the Daily trend yet which is at 4200. The index that tracks the top stocks, the NYFANG, is in overbought territory on a Daily timeframe and nearly into overbought territory on a Weekly basis as well. Those stocks have been propping up the market and I think this zone will see at least some retracement on their part as well. Additionally, the head and shoulders I foresaw being developed reached full maturity with the pump on a medium volume day. Alas, my 6E trade had gave up some of the profit I'd peaked at yesterday but is now making new lows. We are about .2 away from reaching my target goal there and I'm happy with the $4000 trade that has become. If I need to utilize that profit to subsidize my lack of profit in the S&P this week, I can handle that. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4136 Uptrend (5/17/2023) Lower High 1Hr - 4164 Uptrend (5/17/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4164 Uptrend (5/17/2023) Lower High 3Hr - 4172 Uptrend (5/17/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4124 Uptrend (5/10/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4180 Uptrend (5/18/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; The 3hr and 4hr are calling in for support at 4172, so if they manage to stop any downward momentum they could help lift the market to a 12hr uptrend and/or the Daily ascending trendline at 4200. The Short position; With the 6hr calling for a reverse, and the lower timeframes heavily violated, I see the 4180 price point as an entry to the downside. Economic Data; We've got Philly data including a manufacturing index and the usual jobs data. Don't forget that Powell speaks tomorrow as well since I likely won't be around tomorrow. Earnings; Walmart beat their lowered target goal, and have raised the year end target but lowered Q2 expectations. See how they pull this off yet? Now when they beat Q2 lowered expectations, they can keep the year long up and lower Q3... and on and on we go with this fake earnings beats. My sentiment into today is; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Bullish/Neutral
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
3
ES UpdateRSI is headed to overbought pretty quickly, no idea if this is a headfake or if it's gonna break out and go for the gap fill. Decided to go all cash, flipped my WMT and GOOS puts because the market is acting too bullish. Should have gone l9ong because ES MFI was oversold at open, didn't trust my indicators and missed out.... we've had so much whipsaw lately.... but it looks like they might finally have turned the algos back on after 7 weeks of whipsaw. Too close to overbought to chase it, I'll wait to see if indicators start cycling again. Made 4 grand this weeks anyways, no need to push it. Big rally on a Wed is pretty rare, totally missed the boat today. Oh well. Can't kick myself since I made money this week. remember my rule.... never kick yourself when you've made money, lol.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by hungry_hippo
1