ES targets Oct 4th // NFP at 8:30All week, only one level really mattered in ES: 5740, which has tested or trapped below 13 times now. I was looking for another rally to 5754, 5763+, and we’ve hit those levels.
As of now: NFP at 8:30. Protect gains. 5744/5734 must hold on any NFP dips to keep 5782 and 5805 in play. If 5734 fails, 5721 and 5702 next down
S&P 500 E-Mini Futures
ES Levels and targets Oct. 3rdThis week has pretty much revolved around one key level in ES: 5740, which has trapped shorts multiple times now. Yesterday, we saw a huge failed breakdown there. Targets were 5754 (hit), 5763 (hit), and 5773 (hit). We just had another failed breakdown at 7 AM this morning, pushing us up right back to the first target 5754 again and here now
As of now: No change—as long as buyers keep 5740-42 holding on dips, 5763, 5773, and 5780+ are still in play. If 5740 fails, 5729-27 and 5712 next down
ES levels and targets oct 2ndShorts were triggered in ES yesterday morning. The fail of 5777 was the signal with a target of around 5740. We lost 5777, sold off to 5740, backtested 5777, and sold again. Bears are in control for now until that 5777-82 area is reclaimed.
As of now: 5738 is support and the last chance for a bounce (targets at 5763, 5778). If 5739 fails, 5729 and 5711 is next down.
S&P500 Fractal from 2019 points to a 6100 rally.The S&P500 (SPX) is absorbing all the negative news on the recent geopolitical unrest in the Middle East and could post its first red week after a streak of three green 1W candles. This shouldn't however make us lose our long-term perspective and a fractal from 2018 - 2020 comes to remind us why.
As you can see, the 1W RSI sequence from July 24 2023 until now, is quite similar to the one from October 01 2018 - September 30 2019. The price actions between the two fractals are also similar. Both started with a bottom on (or near) the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and transitioned into a Bullish Megaphone.
After the September 30 2019 Low, the index resumed the uptrend within a (green) Channel Up, which extended higher up until the COVID crash, which is of course a 1-in-100 year Black Swan event that couldn't have been predicted. If it weren't for that, the market would have at best tested the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for new buyers and then extended the bullish trend like it did after June 2020.
In any case, we expect a similar behavior with a bullish continuation of +25.50% from the last Low (-3% lower like the 2019 rise was from its previous Bullish Leg). This gives us an end-of-year Target around 6100.
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S&P500 Consolidation before the next leg to 6000.The S&P500 index / US500 may have pulled back a little today but on the long term pattern, which is a Rising Megaphone, it only shows that it turned sideways.
This ranged trading, is the consolidation that the previous leg up did after rebounding on the 0.618 Fib and the 1day MA50.
The index is possibly repeating this pattern so what's next is a rally to the 1.618 Fib extension.
Buy and target 6000.
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S&P500: Upward Potential!We still give the S&P more room and time to complete its turquoise wave B, which should primarily peak below the resistance at 5946 points. If the index breaches this level, we will have to assume that the larger green wave alt.(4) has already bottomed out. We consider this alternative scenario 38% likely. However, we primarily expect the S&P to fall into our green Target Zone (coordinates: 5110 – 4921 points) after reaching the upcoming top of wave B. This range is where the regular green wave (4) should be completed. Thereafter, we expect the upward movement to continue, with wave (5) finally breaking above 5946 points.
ES levels and targets Oct 1st5773 has been the key level to watch in ES. We dropped below it yesterday, printed a failed breakdown, and reclaiming 5773 rallied us toward the 8523 target
As of now: 5799 to 5820 is a chop zone. Holding it opens the door for 5828 and 5835-40 as next upside targets. If 5799 breaks, 5781 next down, which bulls will really need to defend.
S&P500: Bullish until the end of the year.Excellent bullish technicals on its 1D outlook for the S&P500 (RSI = 64.960, MACD = 69.000, ADX = 26.170), despite turning mostly sideways in the past trading days. However, having reached the HH trendline, we can see from the past two similar patterns that a consolidation is normal and as long as the 1D MA50 holds, the index is more likely to continue the uptrend. We are expecting a similar +15.00% rise (TP = 6,200) to close the year out.
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ES levels and targets sept 30thLast week ES was stuck in a chop range between 5823-30 and 5773. On Friday, I was eyeing a rally to resistance, and we hit it. Now back at support, but it’s very weak now and well-tested.
As of now: Bulls need to react fast and recover 5783 for one last rally attempt in my opinion. If 5773 fails, 5763 and 5754 next down.
ES/SPX levels and targets sept 27thIt was all about one key level in ES yesterday: 5790. Once we broke out, we hit the 5823+ target, and 5790 flipped to support. We’ve tested it three times now since then, with one solid failed breakdown playing out perfectly around 1 PM yesterday.
As of now: 5788 (tested already) and 5773 are the supports. As long as buyers hold it, 5812, 5823, and 5828+ are in play. Shorts only slightly trigger if 5773 cracks
Es levels and targets sept 25thWe are still consolidating in ES. 5767 has been the key pivot, bouncing off or failed breakdown 9 times already. Yesterday’s targets were 5782, 5789+, and we’re still sitting at 5789.
As of now: 5782 and 5769 are supports. As long as buyers hold, we’re looking at 5808-10+ up next. If 5769-70 fails, 5757 we go.
S&P500 This rally isn't even halfway there!Last time we plotted the S&P500 index (SPX) against the Volatility Index (VIX) was almost a year ago (November 07 2023, see chart below) and that helped as catch a more than +20% rise:
This time, the two assets who are on a negative correlation don't trade on exactly opposite patterns. The S&P500 has been trading within a Channel Up for almost 1 year (since the October 30 2023 Low), while VIX is on a (wide) range with a clear Support Zone and peaks within a 22.00 - 24.00 Resistance Zone, with the exception of the early August rise that spiked above it (recession fears).
Naturally, VIX's spikes and rejections (red circles) are SPX's bottoms and reversals (green circles). The blue circles that are bottoms for VIX inside its Support Zone are mid rally consolidations on the S&P500. This indicates that even when the Volatility bottoms and starts rising, the market is still in euphoria and it takes another half rally before it realizes that an aggressive volatility spike is coming.
This can be particularly helpful in determining how long we still have to keep buying. Based on VIX's current position (ellipse shape), we are on the consolidation phase before the Support Zone test. Which means that we aren't even halfway through SPX's Bullish Leg.
We expect that to be around mid to end of October, just before the U.S. elections to come up as a needed correction. As a result, we are expecting an end-of-year price at around 6200.
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ES levels and targets sept 24thSolid follow-through overnight. Last three days, ES has been tightening up for a breakout. Yesterday’s support held at 5767, and we hit the targets at 5782, 5791, and 5807.
As of now: Nothing changes. 5767 is weak support and needs to hold for 5782, 5789, and 5806 to stay in play. If 5767 breaks, watch for 5751 next.
S&P500: Aiming at 6,000 before the elections.The S&P500 index is on a very healthy bullish technical 1D outlook (RSI = 64.688, MACD = 69.140, ADX = 44.589) which indicates that the rebound that started on the September 6th low should be extended. The volatility on the 4H RSI indicates that as long as the 4H MA200 supports, we will see a rally similar to June's and in fact we should symmetrically be on a same level as the June 14th consolidation. We are aiming for the -0.618 Fibonacci extension like June's rally (TP = 6,000) before the U.S. elections.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Es levels and targets sept 23rdAfter last week's squeeze, ES has been stuck in the 5782-5738 range. In mondays plan, I called for a rally from 5755 to 5782 today. We held 5755 perfectly last night, rallied to 5782, and then sold off from there
As of now: 5766 (weak) and 5755 are supports. Buyers holding those keeps 5782, 5791, 5797 and 5807 in play. If 5755 fails, expect a retest of 5737 area.