S&P500 consolidation is over. Massive rally starting.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the October 27 2023 Low. For almost the past 30 days it has been ranging sideways on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The index is no stranger to this at all.
On the contrary, this is a common Consolidation Phase that SPX has been through another 3 times within the Channel Up. As you can see, every time the index recovered from a Bearish Leg below the 1D MA50, it consolidated for around 1 month above the 1D MA50 and then resumed the Bullish Leg to complete at least a +15% rise from the bottom.
The 1D RSI sequences among all those fractals (including today's) are identical. As a result, we are preparing for a massive rally any day now, expecting a new +15% Bullish Leg to reach at least 6600.
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S&P 500 E-Mini Futures
S&P - WEEKLY SUMMARY 3.2-7.2 / FORECAST📉 S&P500 – 4th week of the base cycle (average of 20 weeks). The pivot forecast on February 3 pushed the market upward after the overnight tariff gap. If you remember, I was in a short position at Friday’s close on January 31. I got tempted by the overnight tariff hysteria and closed my position in the morning. The European morning provided a great intraday opportunity to buy back the market with a good profit and open a long position on the pivot forecast.
⚠️ The cycle’s beginning looks very bearish, with a short rise followed by a steep drop below the opening level. I anticipated this in early January. By Friday’s close, signs of a double top at the December 9 and January 29 extreme forecast levels appeared. Strong hands with stops above the double top level should have held their short positions from January 24. The impulse from the January 29 extreme forecast is still active. Two long cycles remain open, as noted in the early January post.
DeepSeek Is Not What the Market FearsWith the emergence of DeepSeek, tech stocks have generally dropped by 6% over these few short days across all US indices, but from the peak in late November to December, we saw a much more massive drop among all of them.
The Russell 2000, representing small and medium-sized enterprises in the U.S., declined by 12%,
What triggered this sell-off in the tech giants (Nasdaq), the old guards (Dow Jones), the suite of blue-chip stocks (S&P 500), and the medium-sized firms (Russell 2000)?
Markets are inter-connected. What should we be looking out for, and how should we navigate if the market break below this recent all-time low?
E-mini S&P 500 Futures & Options
Ticker: ES
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $12.50
Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures & Options
Ticker: MES
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $1.25
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Market Forecast UPDATES! Tuesday, Feb 11In this video, we will update the forecasts for the following markets:
ES \ S&P 500
NQ | NASDAQ 100
YM | Dow Jones 30
GC |Gold
SiI | Silver
PL | Platinum
HG | Copper
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
S&P500: Breaking out towards 6,210.S&P500 is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 54.592, MACD = 11.130, ADX = 24.014) as it is ranging between the 1H MA50 and 1H MA200. This consolidation is taking place near the top of the Channel Down, a pattern almost identical with January's. When that pattern broke to the upside, it almost hit the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. Our short term target is just under this level (TP = 6,210).
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ES/SPX Morning Update Feb10thThe past 3 Sundays have been similar: a gap down set up a Failed Breakdown long where we planned. As mentioned in the plan Sunday, the Failed Breakdown of Wednesday’s 6020 low was triggered at 6 PM yesterday giving buyers a nice long, especially after reclaiming 42-43, with targets of 6056 and 6070—and both were reached.
• Next targets are 6086, 6093, and 6109+
• If the 6066-70 zone fails, expect a dip toward 56, then 42
Weekly Market Forecast: S&P, NAS & DOW Are Still Bullish!This forecast is for the week of Feb 10-14th.
The S&P500, the NASDAQ, and the DOW JONES are still bullish overall, despite last weeks NFP news that saw the markets move lower. Until there is a bearish break in market structure, it is buys all the way. Let the markets reach the buy zones and wait for the bullish market structure shift. That is the time to take valid buy setups.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/07/25MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/07/25
📈6148-6154
📉6075-6068
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
(💎: IF THERE IS NOT MUCH VOLATILITY; FOCUS ON ZONES VERSES INDIVIDUAL PRICE LEVELS)
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/06/25MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/06/25
📈6132-6140
📉6060-6050
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
(💎: IF THERE IS NOT MUCH VOLATILITY; FOCUS ON ZONES VERSES INDIVIDUAL PRICE LEVELS)
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ES Morning update NFP at 8:30Yesterday was choppy in ES, yet key levels held with precision. Both 6087 and 6070 provided solid support—with 6070 holding exactly—which kept the market on track to reach 6105.
As of now:
• NFP at 8:30; hold the runner
• No change: 6087 and the weaker 6066-70 zone must hold to keep 6109, 6116, and 6130 in play
• If support falls below 6066, sell down to 6043
750 dolla spy.gm,
wanted to share my outlook on the stock market today.
---
fear is accelerating. uncertainty is going parabolic in a way we haven’t seen since the covid crash. people are running. insiders are exiting. the herd is collectively turning bearish.
but i’m bullish.
---
here’s exactly why:
-quantitative easing is coming back.
-rate cuts are on the horizon.
-the us dollar is depreciating.
-economic expansion is inevitable.
-the artificial intelligence boom is just getting started.
---
while most people fumble their bag up here, drowning in fear, we look for significantly higher prices into 2026.
---
ps. i left out upside targets and timeframes because none of that matters at the moment. only the structure does. if you like the structure, use it. don't give me any credit. i don’t need it.
if you make a dolla this next year, donate a tenth of it to someone who needs it more than you. the universe will handle the rest.
🌙
ES/ Morning Update Feb 6thYesterday morning, ES triggered longs with the reclaim of 6037. The targets came in perfectly—6056, 6076, 6087, and 6105 were all hit, with the final target reached overnight. I emphasized in my daily summaries for the previous couple days the importance of letting the trade run instead of over-managing, and that approach remains in effect today.
As of now:
• 6086 is holding as support
• This level keeps 6105, 6115, and 6130 in play
• If 6086 fails, expect a dip to the 6066-6070 zone
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/05/25MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/05/25
📈6067-6069 ; 6107-6109
📉6030-6027; 5990-5987
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
(💎: IF THERE IS NOT MUCH VOLATILITY; FOCUS ON ZONES VERSES INDIVIDUAL PRICE LEVELS)
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
S&P500: Neutral on 1D shows enormous upside potential.S&P500 is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.735, MACD = 16.510, ADX = 17.690) as it just crossed over the 1D MA50 again and after a 1D MA100 rebound remains relatively low inside the Channel Up pattern. The 1D RSI is also bouncing on the S1 level, where the September 6th 2024 bullish wave originated and reached the 1.786 Fibonacci extension. That is an excellent technical level for the next HH (TP = 6,300).
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ES Morning Update Feb 5thAfter a noisy start earlier in the week, ES has settled into a consolidation phase. Yesterday’s strategy was simple: as long as 6020 remained intact, 6066 was the target. The market surged to 6066, held throughout the session, and then retraced back to 6020 overnight.
As of now:
• A reclaim of 6037 should push the market toward 6056, with a brief dip along the way
• If this rebound holds, targets are set at 6076 and 6087+
• A leg down is expected only if the price falls below 6004
ES Morning Update Feb 4thEven as tariff comments continue to drive the market relentlessly, the technical side of things in ES remains razor-sharp. Since Sunday’s open, the target was unmistakable: a gap fill in the 6056-66 range. We reached roughly 6066 by 6pm, filled the gap, and then sold.
As of now:
• The market is in a phase of complex chop between 6004 and 6066
• 6020 and the recovered 6004 are acting as support
• These supports keep 6036, 6058, and 6066+ in play
• If the price drops below 6004, initiate selling
S&P500 4H Bullish Cross signals rally to 6200.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been consolidating within a Rectangle pattern, which is coming out a MA100/200 Bullish Cross on the 4H time-frame. The identical consoliation phase of July - August 2024 bottomed right after such Bullish Cross and then rebounded towards the 1.382 Fibonacci extension level before pulling back to the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) again.
With the 1D MACD about to confirm the bottom with a Bearish Cross similar to September 04 2024, we expect a strong rally to start by the end of the week and target 6200 (just below the 1.382 Fibonacci extension).
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Market Forecast UPDATES! Tuesday, Feb 4thIn this video, we will update the forecasts for the following markets:
ES \ S&P 500
NQ | NASDAQ 100
YM | Dow Jones 30
GC |Gold
SiI | Silver
PL | Platinum
HG | Copper
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
S&P500 1 month rally ahead. Target 6300.The S&P500 / US500 is trading inside a Channel Up since mid July 2024.
Today's downside gap opening tested the 1day MA100 for the 2nd time in 2 weeks and buying pressure immediately kicked in.
The 1day MACD pattern is identical to the September 06 2024 1day MA100 rebound. This ended up with a rally to the 1.786 Fibonacci extension.
Buy and for the next 30 days at least target 6300 (1.786 Fib).
Previous chart:
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"the top is in", "for the rates"gm,
markets tend to be forward looking, and based off my understanding + the chart data, it appears the top is in for the rates.
i predict the market will begin to price in future rate cuts and start bringing the us10y down.
this will open the door to a "risk on" enviroment for big tech, as well as risk assets like crypto .
---
the count on the us10y is relatively simple.
5 waves up from the 2020 lows.
predicting 3 waves down into the year ahead.
the low on the us10y should coincide with a high in the global liquidity index,,, which is set to peak into the end first month of 2026.
🌙
---
ps. check out the last us10y update from 2 years ago via:
ES Morning UpdateLast night, ES experienced its largest gap down in over a decade. Despite the steep drop, key levels held precisely—5934 was marked as support and the overnight low of 5935.50 was tested multiple times and held.
As of now:
• 5951-49 and 5934 are acting as support (with 5934 showing some weakness)
• Holding these levels keeps 5990, 6008, and 6016-20 in play
• If 5934 fails, sell down to 5907