Es1!long
S&P500 Market AnalysisAfter the big impulse move on Monday, S&P500 broke the daily structure to the upside for the first time since the start of September.
We bounced from 100-DMA with a short-trap, which builds up our idea for a long setup.
The most favorable entry price can be found around the POC of the HVN we are currently trading in, which is around 3244.
If the price reaches the level before running to the high of the HVN at 3400, we can consider taking this long.
Acceptance below Friday's low will open the door to much lower prices with key areas of interest at 3107 that is HVN POC and 200-DMA and 3000 that represents a big figure, yearly VWAP, and bottom of the HVN.
S&P E-MINI 500 (SWING) 15MINProbability: 65% for my prediction
We have a Buy Signal ( even if we are in a downtrend)
The Stop loss and Take profit As Mentioned on the Chart
Please Note:
I Close the Trade Manually so , my SL: 3220 and my TP: 3271 and if the green candle cut with force the TP line then i take another position and choose another TP :) Manually !
Mild correct in US stocks, Pre-Election pump then Market Crash!It's never easy to predict anything in the market. All we can do is look at the current events, information and make educated guesses and anticipate the move higher or lower. That is exactly what is done here!
We are in a "pullback" area where the market is in a correction move right now where the S&P 500 (the economic index) is down about 7% from its all-time high, considering the most recent all-time broke the prior all-time high by 5.5% we have given back a normal amount of low volume gains. These gains were partially accumulated by Soft Bank and retail investors. This is a healthy correction in these market conditions where you have severely overvalued tech that leads the rally.
We have outlined a lot of things in this image. Where the prior all-time high was that did not hold much of a support zone. From there we could pull back into the next structure high which is a 8.7% pullback and comes into a huge volume profile level that should hold at least temporarily at 3275.
The next level below should the price continue to slip is 1. the prior peak higher before we started this huge rally and saw a 9% drop off the level and 2. The volume profile edge or value area high. this is a pivotal area around 3220 and the 10% drop from all-time highs.
From there we don't have to stall out and continue to push back up again, we could drop through that level by a few more percent. However, we do anticipate a red September on the back of fund rebalancing. From there we do expect a rally into the Federal Election. This would be on the back of Fed stimulus coming through and helping revive the economy to their best efforts. This would also help Trump look really good ahead of the election if the economy prints a positive GDP quarter and the market is at all-time highs.
However, beware of advancing Biden in the polls which could put a damper on the upside of the market. We do anticipate a nice pre-election rally to push into all-time highs. Maybe not 3,700 but a target is 3,630-3,650 to the upside. From there we expect a very interesting phenomenon to occur.
The post-election crash, typically seen throughout a "crisis" year where we have an economic downturn, as we've seen over the decade. After an election, the market gives up a huge portion of the gains, regardless of the winner. In this case, if Trump is to be re-elected the downside may be more muted compared to Biden's win.
Should the market drop to 2870 right now we would enter a bear market, if we get up to 3,750 pre-election a drop to 2870 is a 23% drop, some say that we may erase 4-year worth of ES gains post-election which is a bit on the aggressive and dark side.
Retrospectively, we do have an optimistic sentiment throughout the majority of the end of the year but could see a gloomy end to it all.
S&P E-Mini 500 ( 15Min)We have a buy Signal (please Read carefully)
Probability : 65%
Take profit : 3506.50
Stop Loss: 3495
If we achieve our Target ( TP) then Wait until the Green candle cut the first Green Line => Take another Buy position and Use the Orange Line as the second Take profit 2. and the Green line is my new support.
If the Candle cut the Orange Line ( TP2) , use it as a Support and the Blue Line As a Resistance ( Take profit 3).
E-mini S&P500 intradayHello traders,
The E-Mini S&P500 future has marked a high volume with that special candle. We expect an increasing trend right now. It will try to increase in order to reach the resistance R0. If it breaks R0 it will try to reach R1.
But if it can’t reach R0, we should wait that first red volume and candle to sell and take profit.