Es1!short
R.I.P. The S&PAs you can see, History repeats itself. To my technical eye, The S&P is loosing momentum at a price of major resistance AND(+) a Major trend line where price has previously ended its bull rally to return to its overall bear market downtrend. Second possibility attached. I see The S&P returning to the 350's if not much much lower. Its divergent sister, the VIX is showing similar confluence because it is also at a price area of major lows where it has previously reversed overall direction longterm. I see The VIX returning to 34.32.
SPX500 down to its final destination 3925This is what I've been telling to some folks when we reached upper edge of the flag on daily.
Precise charting and tight SL are your friends.
I've told everyone that this was a massive bull trap when price reached 4100 and then returned to 4080.
Others were saying that is just the gap covering up to 4220.
All in all, I believe that this will be our last bear drop before xmas rally. The only question that I have is How deep are we gonna drop....
GTLA
Remember: Never give up....
FIBS CONVERGE - .612 .382 SPX AND ES1 SHORT PRICE REJECTION
37 minutes ago
Comment: SEE FUTURES MAKING THIS MORE CLEAR = Interesting how FIB lines stay constant no matter what start or ending point you use
1. The Fib from Jan 4th high calls this the .382 Resistance line
2. The Fib from Aug 16th high calls this the .618 Resistance line
3. They BOTH LAND on the 4000 cash - 4030 on the FUTURES
Note the declining volume the higher she goes
Notice how the EMA CLOUDS mark key TURNING points marked with circles as it rose into the cloud
EMA Cloud where areas are shaded between two desired EMAs. The concept implies the EMA cloud area serves as support or resistance for Swing Trading 5-12 or 5-13 EMA cloud acts as a fluid trendline for day trades. 8-9 EMA Clouds can be used as pullback Levels –(optional). Additionally, a high-level price over or under 34-50 EMA clouds confirms either a bullish or bearish bias on the price action for any timeframe
ES 4016 now support zoneI want to see a slow grind down to 4016-20ES zone for a potential bottom and then one more up to 4069-81ES to finish the whole move up
Ideally we see that low on Fri open
I have a turning day on the 28th, should mark the high.
Below 4016 the price will see a support at 3990-94 and if below 3969-73.5
Make your bet for Fri open, share with others on other sites. Lets get a better picture of an average
strawpoll.com
Im short half size for 4020 exit or stop above the highs
Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!
SPX500 Index Crash - 2022-2024Three attempts at pulling back:
Pullback One: Clearly, the strongest positive angled pullback of the three. Short-lived and rejected fully met. Pullback One, can be construed as the second weakest pullback, if you take into consideration how quickly it came, and went. Upon failure, strong downside ensued. Lower-Lows in Down Trend.
Pullback Two: Calm, Collected, Strong Pullback. The strongest of the three by far. She went boys. She sure did. In this moment, I don't know why she failed. The fact remains. Strong Pullback Two was eviscerated. Upon failure, strong downside ensued. Lower-Lows in Down Trend.
Pullback Three, was absolutely slapped off her bar stool by the way FOMC Meeting candles printed on the chart. Followed up, by currently, an absolute horror show of an attempted recovery, in coordination with some suspicious early morning futures activity and the ensuing intraday. Was not a pretty sight.
My Official opinion is:
SPY500 is an absolute dumpster fire. Please take caution with your investments and invest wisely or take profit wisely. However you do so, I believe that the SPY500 is going to at least 2700 if not 2500 if not 2275.
Thank you,
Mr. Storm
DUMPSTER FIRE.
ES watch the trendline, ideal target is 3820Im trading VWAP today only and very cautious about that orange trendline!
So far so good with the timing, should top by tomorrow (VIX OPEX) and then we see a reversal for the low on the 24th
APPL bull flagging, can push this baby up into the ideal target at some point
Dont get trapped, get a trade come to you, give to that trade time
SPY, SPX, ES1 Futures WYCKOFF DISTRIBUTIONThis is my take on the SPY ETF and SPX. It seems though there was much buying near the support, many other market participants or the CO (composite operator) was off loading--or even initiating short positions-- these shares.
There are many economic hints that point us into the conclusion of a Recession--Yet of course recessionary news is posted every day even in a bull market.
However, as a National factor for the US, Interest Rates have been on a rise. Inflation expectation is also on the rise as the FED continues to look forward to rate hikes in the future. Taxation--as one of the options-- may increase as to RID excess money from our system, thus Unemployment should increase as many companies are forced to lay-off their employees. Additionally, with the increase of interest rates this causes housing values to decline rapidly. With housing still in demand now, new housing ownership should decline slowly, as many cannot afford the interest rates on a loan to build or buy housing.
Housing Ownership and Stock market Prices really do not have a correlation, nor does Stock price and GDP. However, Interest rates have a correlation with nearly all Industrial and Stock Effects.
My Bias Is Bearish: This is Soley due to The Technical Aspect. There was existing support however was quickly reversed as resistance-- The offloading of Institutions who entered on the wrong side of the market--forcing a liquidation of their assets at break even or lower. THUS, the backup move was essential for the market to mark down to lower prices. It seems that it will be a slow process of a continuous move lower.
ES AHs updatePerfect 4200 hit, I had few running from 4148, some was exited at 4172 and 80, one at 4196.5. Have only 2 left, will exit at BE or if we extend to 4210-20.
Im short NQ after the close.
Nothing broken, Im looking at it as another bear rally. EOM will be quite surprising.
Its def frustrating for many who short every top, have stops!!! Always hedge! If resistance broken, flip to the long side, its that simple.
My internet problems cost me 3k in un-managed stops, was able to cover half before the close, but still not fun
Tomorrow is a weekly closing, as well as PCE numbers, last 2 times we sold off hard on those, will the history repeat?
Im betting on down, bought some Aug 31 puts as lotto trade as well as I have NQ shorts running.
Its a directional change tomorrow, only 2 scenario, it will just continue the same pathway and we go up to close the gap or just open down and make a reversal.
Make your bets, I made mine. Its a game we all play, never 100% but must win more then loose.
Again, always have stops!
Will do SPX later tonight, when I see updated numbers and cycles.
ES gapped down as expected, must hold levels for tomorrowMust hold level for tomorrow is 4172-90.
We must penetrate 4200 or 11th low to mark the temp (if not maj) high on Aug 16th
Ideal target is at 4045-60ES on this move lower and the bottom timing is on 25-26th of Aug.
Rally after into the 2nd of Sep high!
I dont want to be long going into the Labour Day weekend; market, historically, tops around the Labour Weekend.
SPX next to update with detailed notes to those who are on my email list. Will update that chart tomorrow am here
ES AHs updateES broke the uptrend small channel off am lows, good sign there. Its also jumped out its upper bull trend channel, must watch for possible fake out. If it means business for the bulls, I will trade the re-test of the trendline in am.
If you look at the chart, you can see that we hit 1.618 to the penny and the price is hovering right at the extension zone. I say it's a very important place to continue or reject, it seems we hit the wall here imo.
Im swing short here and have no stops at the moment, will be watching for the breakout to hold or fail
Going down sir?
“The Rowing Song”
Round the world and home again
That’s the sailor’s way
Faster faster, faster faster
There’s no earthly way of knowing
Which direction we are going
There’s no knowing where we’re rowing
Or which way the river’s flowing
Is it raining, is it snowing
Is a hurricane a–blowing
Not a speck of light is showing
So the danger must be growing
Are the fires of Hell a–glowing
Is the grisly reaper mowing
Yes, the danger must be growing
For the rowers keep on rowing
And they’re certainly not showing
Any signs that they are slowing
WILL THE S&P 500 E-MINI FUTURES REVERSE??Despite the huge upside we had the last weeks, we are STILL in a massive downtrend. I see it going up till 4200, when it should lose some momentum, this volume has been driven by the results of big companies. I think that the market today is not pricing the stagflation that we are heading into, and it won't till the analysts of wall street adapt their expectations to reality. By the end of the year we should see it between 2800-3500. The "official" inflation seems to be in its peaks now, but I don't see a clear recovery till 2024. Now the USA Government is saying that two consecutive periods of negative GDP doesn't mean that the economy is in recession. Honestly, I think they are just trying to keep the market up the longer they can, in order to sell their balance sheet at higher prices. This thing can reverse in every moment, or it could continue to be bullish. Better wait to trade to the downside till some clear reversal appears. I'm still bearshing over the next 6-12 months.
ES into the Maj Resistance end 61.8 retracementHaving a connection in Toronto, have time to update.
Im short ES here from 82 and 87.5
We are right into the 61.8 retracement as well as the Maj trednline off 2009 lows (red line)
Min target is 3914 but should test lower into the 3900 zone next imo.
Ideally we test my 3875 zone and move back up for lower high or the ideal high to 4033-34 and even 4075-90