Three Black Crows. Bear Market Candlestick Pattern. Series IIWere you ready or not with recent sell off on financial markets, - this one should be not a surprise.
It's been already discussed in publication " 👀 Three Black Crows. Bear Market Candlestick " , that in unfavorable macroeconomic conditions, the Three Black Crows pattern is generally quite common pattern. Three Black Crows. Bear Market Candlestick Pattern
Three Black Crows is a continuation pattern, being a term used to describe a bearish candlestick pattern that can predict a reversal in an uptrend.
Classic candlestick charts show "Open", "High", "Low" and "Close" prices of a bar for a particular security. For markets moving up, the candlestick is usually white, green or blue. When moving lower they are black or red.
The Three Black Crows pattern consists of three consecutive long-body candles that opened with a gap above or inside the real body of the previous candle, but ultimately closed lower than the previous candle. Often traders use this indicator in combination with other technical indicators or chart patterns to confirm a reversal.
Restrictions on the use of three black crows
If the "Three Black Crows" pattern has already shown significant downward movement, it makes sense to be wary of oversold conditions that could lead to consolidation or a pullback before further downward movement. The best way to assess whether a stock or other asset is oversold is to look at other technical indicators, such as relative strength index (RSI), moving averages, trend lines, or horizontal support and resistance levels.
Many traders typically look to other independent chart patterns or technical indicators to confirm a breakout rather than relying solely on the Three Black Crows pattern.
Overall, it is open to some free interpretation by traders. For example, when assessing the prospects of building a pattern into a longer continuous series consisting of “black crows” or the prospects of a possible rollback.
In addition, other indicators reflect the true pattern of the three black crows. For example, a Three Black Crows pattern may involve a breakout of key support levels, which can independently predict the start of a medium-term downtrend. Using additional patterns and indicators increases the likelihood of a successful trading or exit strategy.
Real example of Three black crows
Since there are a little more than one day left before the closing of the third candle in the combination, the candlestick combination (given in the idea) is a still forming pattern, where (i) each of the three black candles opened above the closing price of the previous one, that is, with a small upward gap, (ii ) further - by the end of the time frame the price decreases below the price at close of the previous time frame, (iii) volumes are increased relative to the last bullish time frame that preceded the appearance of the first of the “three crows”, (iv) the upper and lower wicks of all “black crows” are relatively short and comparable with the main body of the candle.
Historical examples of the Three Black Crows pattern
Here's an example what's happened early in April, 2024
And here's an example what's going on right now in August, 2024
Potentially it may appear again and again. Don't miss it out!
As history has repeated itself already, technical graph for S&P500 indicates on potential recovery, up to 5800 points, until November, 2024 (U.S. presidential elections).
Es1
NASDAQ-100 (BIGTECH) VOLATILITY INDEX. IMPORTANT LEVELS TO LEARNBroadly-known ominously among investors as the "fear index" and launched by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (now the Cboe) in 1993, the Volatility Index (VIX) is meant to present the market's expectation of volatility over the coming 30 days. The metric is derived from options prices on the S&P 500 Index and captures the anticipated swings that drive investor sentiment.
In recent years, the VIX has become a far more central index, especially during periods of financial turbulence, such as the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. During these stretches, spikes in the VIX reflected widespread anxiety; during others, it's been a crucial barometer for market participants seeking a glimpse into investors' collective psyche. When the VIX is low, this suggests calm seas ahead. When it spikes, it signals approaching storms.
Every single stock index do have its own volatility. This story is about Cboe NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index
The Cboe NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index (VXN) is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX) option prices. It measures the market's expectation of 30-day volatility implicit in the prices of near-term NASDAQ-100 options. VXN is quoted in percentage points, just like the standard deviation of a rate of return, e.g. 19.36. Cboe disseminates the VXN index value continuously during trading hours.
The VXN Index is a leading barometer of investor sentiment and market volatility relating to the NASDAQ-100 Index.
Learn more about Methodology for Calculation of the VXN Index, using official CBOE website .
Technical observations
The main technical graph indicates that VXN Index has recently jumped, from 5-year lows around 15 basic points in mid-June, 2024 to current 25 basic points.
In nowadays 25-level corresponds to 5-years SMA, and is the major one resistance level.
In any case of breakthrough it certainly cracks the door to 40-levels and potentially even much above.
Think twice. Then leap.
Cheers, Pandorra
ES Levels & Targets August 5thNice news move for ES overnight. As mentioned last Thursday, the next leg down begins on the fail of the 5447, and we are now down 250 points, for the largest short opp in years. Nothing to do but hold shorts now.
As of now: 5191 is support, then 5177, 5148. Buyers must reclaim 5245-50 to trigger a relief pop
SPX: Where to Expect the Price Will Land?I've identified several targets, and most of them have been reached… except one last one.
1. 100% symmetrical extension of the red box —> Reached.
2. 100% symmetrical extension of the orange box —> Reached.
3. 100% symmetrical projection from A to B , then projected from C . D = the target price —> Reached.
4. D barely served as a support. The price went through it directly without any proper pullback. Therefore, I expect the price to double the original force to reach D’ .
- Be aware that in this final stage, price movements can become unpredictable and illogical. Finding a meaningful stop loss can be difficult, and if you do, it’s usually broad and uncertain.
- Thus, if you have a short position, hold it tightly towards the ultimate goal of D’ . At the same time, set up a solid defense line to protect your profits.
- Personally, I’ll set my stop loss at D , the original target price and the previous high. If the price takes out the current low and forms another lower high, I’ll move my stop loss to the new lower high.
Not Financial Advice
The information contained in this article is not intended as, and should not be understood as financial advice. You should take independent financial advice from a professional who is aware of the facts and circumstances of your individual situation.
SPX 666The S&P has proven itself a safe haven over the years and will likely continue doing so. There are a ton of reasons why the markets should collapse, nonetheless here we are rallying into the sunset. Taking a step back on the logarithmic scale we can see the pattern clearly. We are in the midst of a 3rd wave up with plenty of room to run... but where to?
Near term and long term targets below.
Using the Fibonacci extension tool we can overlay a road map to the next destinations. No surprise there is a near perfect match.
The Near Term Top
The 2.618 level above at 4,500 is an area to pay attention to and is the current near term target. My strategy continues to be 'buy the dip' all the way up to these macro levels using the 1 hour chart with an RSI set to 10. However, 4,500 on the S&P does not look like the end of this cycle.
The Long Term Top
My long term call for the top is around 6,660. Not only is it sandwiched in between the last fib extensions. It is a historically significant pivot point.
No, I'm not a conspiracy guy but I do think it's hilariously entertaining that the major pivot points all happen near 666 levels. Looks to me as if the market is flying towards 6,660 like a bat out of hell.
Trading is risky. Don't do it.
Live trades with entries and exits will be updated on the post linked below titled "S&P 5,000,000"
Long:
MES futures
+ a basket of other equities
Time Is Melting UpA decisive moment draws near as a familiar, but forgotten trend incredulously appears.
Outlined in "S&squeezed" linked below, caution was appropriate until new highs were confirmed.
Enough time has passed. The carcasses of blown accounts can serve as a launch pad to revisit the fib that was lost at 4500.
This is now underway.
Soon to find out which way things tumble
Alphabet & Tesla push All The Bigtech into Bearish MarchIndexes end lower as investors brace for major earnings results
After the closing bell, Tesla and Alphabet released their second-quarter performance.
Investors were especially attentive to the carmaker, looking to see if its performance has improved since the start of the year. Tesla was battered by a slew of headwinds in the first quarter, but investors have since grown bullish on the flagship EV manufacturer.
The two firms are the first of the Magnificent Seven tech stocks to release their earnings.
Unfortunately they both did not deliver strength, so it breaks the momentum to the tech rally.
Tesla shares fall nearly 9% in premarket trading after earnings miss
Tesla shares dropped in premarket trading in the U.S. after the electric car maker reported second-quarter earnings that missed expectations, as its auto business continued to face pressure.
Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company reported that automotive revenue declined 7% year on year in the June quarter to $19.9 billion, while its adjusted earnings margin also fell.
Bulls and bears have been in a grapple over the stock, with some believing the company’s core car business is under pressure, while others held hope about a future Musk has promised around autonomous driving.
Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) shares fall nearly 4.5% in premarket trading after earnings report
Alphabet earnings top estimates as cloud business gains steam, AI losses grow.
Google parent Alphabet reported its fiscal second quarter earnings after the bell on Tuesday, beating analysts' estimates on the top and bottom lines as its cloud businesses continue to pick up steam, topping the $1 billion mark for operating profit for the first time.
For the quarter, the company saw earnings per share of $1.89 on revenue of $84.7 billion. Analysts were anticipating earnings per share of $1.85 on revenue of $84.3 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That's a jump from the same period last year of 31% and 14%, respectively, when the company reported earnings per share of $1.44 on revenue of $74.6 billion.
Advertising revenue topped $64.6 billion versus analysts' expectations of $64.5 billion, and up from $58.1 billion last year. YouTube ad revenue, however, fell short, with the segment bringing in $8.66 billion versus expectations of $8.95 billion.
Technical thoughts
What is next? Hmm.. I think more Bulls & Bears are to run.
The main graph Nasdaq-100 Sept'24 Futures contract (NQU2024) indicates on strong Bearish Momentum.
This is all because of 50-Day SMA breakthrough, as well as breakthrough of major 3Mo old upside channel.
Weekly Update: At the very least...ITS TIME TO RAISE CASH !!!!Since I last updated you on the overall markets, price has retreated lower. (Click Here for the last Market Update)
The Nasdaq futures contract (NQ) has declined a total of 10.76% whereas the SP500 futures contract (ES) has only declined 5.05% from their respective all-time highs earlier in July.
Does the Divergence between the weakness of the NQ, and relative strength of the ES, tell us anything? As I take in volumes of information to access the current pattern I find myself overwhelmed with the musings of more experienced market participants.
A reasonable explanation would be the Nasdaq outperformed on the way up and is now underperforming on the way down. A sign possibly it got ahead of itself? Sure. However, in my experience, the answer is more nuanced to advancing and declining markets than simply the Nasdaq outperformed earlier and is now underperforming. I find Bob Farrell’s “Market Rules to Remember” always a good list to consult in the most interesting of market times. In his top 10 list of market rules, I find the market somewhere between rule #2 and rule#4 rather germane to the current price action.
Rule #2 states : “Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction.”
Whereas Rule #4 states : “Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways.”
Have we achieved the one directional excess that will lead to excesses in the opposite direction yet? Does this rapidly rising market have further to go? These are questions that are impossible to answer right now as the current price action in the NQ and ES tends to favor both rules. To further explain with respect to Rule#2…as long as we remain above the April lows in both the NQ and the ES, we retain the ability to continue to subdivide higher . Right now, those April lows seem like worlds away from the current consciousness of traders. However, from an Elliottitions’ perspective, the upside pattern is not damaged in the least, as long as we remain above those April lows.
But to say the advancing price action has not been damaged in the least is somewhat an oversimplification of the technical structure of the recent price action as notated in RN Elliott’s original theories. Elliott Wave Theory simply put states that a trend will persist in 5 distinct waves, and counter trend price action will retrace the trend but only in 3 distinct waves. This forms the basis of trends, or (Motive Waves) and counter trends, or (Corrective Waves). The exception to this primary tenant of EWT is, wait for it …… (A diagonal Pattern) . Anyone can use the Google Machine for a definition of what a diagonal is within the construct of Elliott Wave Theory. However, I will add that the sentiment of market participants usually is that of tepid confidence. Traders not entirely sure of their actions....FOMO. Nonetheless, using this basic premise, this is how I interpret the current market price action.
Disclaimer: I am not a fortune teller. I do not levitate off the ground, nor do I smoke a pipe like a wizard. Elliott Wave Theory is a construct to provide simply a higher probability forecast of future price action...NOT A GUARANTEE. Many times, with more price action and the benefit of hindsight, patterns can be interpreted as something other than what was originally perceived.
The current price action in the NQ can persist to new all-time highs right now. However, to do so, would ONLY be accomplished as an Ending Diagonal for wave 5 of larger V of even larger wave (III). This sort of price action, if it subdivides to it’s ultimate conclusion, would eventually result in a market crash of sorts. Ending Diagonal patterns ideally return to their point of origination in relatively short order. The origination point of this potential pattern is the April lows. That would be considered a pretty hefty decline if that were to play out and certainly scare those who remain permanently bullish by virtue of a lack of imagination. The ES, although not nearly as precarious as the NQ pattern is, would undoubtedly follow suit to a large extent.
Therefore, I will conclude by humbly offering some unsolicited advice. The professionals, the market media and your day trader buddy…all will chime in when it’s time to buy. Its crickets…when it’s time to sell. You, nor I, have ever turned on CNBC to hear…”Folks it’s time to sell stocks”.
In my last update on the markets, I ended with this statement... these decisions are only yours alone to make. I will not tell you to sell now. However, I’ll tell you this. It is time to raise some cash. Could the market make new highs? Sure. But have you honestly done a risk/reward scenario for these potential incremental new highs?
Take that suggestion for what it may be worth.
Best to all,
Chris
ES Levels & Targets Aug 1stEarlier this week I mentioned that as long as buyers hold 5438, we can break out this 5438-5528 multiday range to 5585.. We hit 5585, for a 150+ point rally.
As of now: Hold runners if you have them. 5572, 5558-60 are supports. Keeps 85, 5605+ live. If 5558 fails, sell 5546, 5528
S&P500 Huge rebound on former 2year ChannelUp! New Highs coming!The S&P500 index (SPX) reached and held last week the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the former 2-year Channel Up pattern that was the vessel of market recovery from the 2022 inflation crisis.
The results of holding this line have been immediate as this week is so far deep into green and is about to recover all losses sustained from the previous 1W candle. At the same time it is a Higher Low on the (dashed) 9-month Channel Up. Those two developments open the way for a new mega-bullish pattern that has the Support of its former one.
As long as the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) remains intact, we still look towards a new Higher High, targeting 6200, which may be a modest Target since it is quite below the +28.56% mark, which is the rise that the previous Bullish Leg had. So far all major long-term rallies since the October 2022 bottom have been around +30%.
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Es Levels & Targets July 31Excellent follow-through overnight from buyers in ES. 5438 was the key support level yesterday as mentioned all week and in plan, with 5482 needing to be reclaimed to trigger a move up. This target was hit overnight, resulting in nearly +100 points from the 5438 long zone.
As for now: Ride the runners if you have them. Next targets up are 5534, 5546, and 5555+. Support levels are 5519 and 5511.
Using CME Group Event Contracts For FOMC & End of The Month ES1! Looking for additional tools to use in your day trading for event days like FOMC and Month End? Watch Anthony Crudele dive into CME Group's Event Contracts in his latest video. See him analyze the E-mini S&P 500 using AVWAP and Bollinger Bands.
Es Levels & Targets July 30thBasing continues for ES but good overnight follow through from buyers aftter holding 5482 again. As written in plan, 5482 is a must hold support or we dip. We held it overnight for the 3rd time since Friday.
As of now: No change. 5502 is support. Keeps 5519 (incoming), 5532+ in play. 5502 fails, we retest 5482.
Es Levels & targets July 29thExcellent follow through for buyers after fridays close. On Friday, one of my targets were 5528. We got there, then dipped. Right before the close, we got a failed breakdown of 5498 level which shot us right back up to 5528. Been basing up here since.
As of now: Hold runners if you have them. 5519, 5502 are supports. Staying above keeps 5536, 5542, 5550-55 in play. 5502 fails, sellers retest 5483 area. Sellers are still in short-term control, and will stay this way until 5550-55 reclaims. Until then, all longs shall be treated with small size and high caution. Be very aggressive with profit takes level to level in this scenario when longing.
ES levels and targets July 26thYesterday, sellers failed 5450, and put in a failed breakdown (my core edge) triggering a 90 point squeeze. Overnight, we got the same trigger again. Now Basing.
As of now: 5474, 5457-60 are supports. As long as above, we push 5498, 5511, 5519+. If 5457 fails, see 5438 again.
S&P500 Bottom of the 8-month Channel. Strong buy signal.The S&P50 index (SPX) broke on Wednesday below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since May 06 and yesterday touched the bottom of the 8-month Channel Up pattern that started after the October 27 2024 market Low.
Technically we are on the most optimal buy level on the medium-term and this is possibly the reason that the day has started on a bullish note. The 1D RSI is at the same time at 40.00 for the first time in 3 months, so slightly into the long-term Buy Zone.
As long as the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) holds, we will be bullish, targeting 6200 (below a the +28.56% mark, which was the % rise of the previous Bullish Leg). If the price breaks below the 1D MA100, we will short up to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) where we will buy again heavily for the long-term (same Target).
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ES levels and target July 25After buyers backtested 5630 major area on Tuesday, sellers have printed our biggest red day since 2022; getting us all the way to 5474 target. Today, buyers get a tiny window for relief pop
As of now: 5450 (held so far) is support. Barber staying above it will keep a pop to 5474, 5490, 5511+ in play. 5450 fails, we sell to 5438
S&P Futures Market Simple Trading Plans - Reacting To FEDHere's a detailed video on how to make use of market sentiment early on.
If you are looking for value investor longs, you'd need sentiment to feed in further and drop the price of the SPX.
For shorts, you'd need continued sentiment to support a downside case. More would need to follow post Fed Member Goolsbee regarding jobs/inflation.
ES levels & targets July 24thThis week, plan has been simple: last week was selling, this week major resistances needed to reclaim. I was looking for a rally from buyers to 5630-33 area. Yesterday we rallied to 5629.75 high of day, sold 80 points from there.
As of now: 5547-51 is support. Buyers must reclaim 5570 now to see any attempt at a relief pop (targeting 5578, 5586, 5600). 5547 fails, next leg to starts to 5536