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S&P500: Sell opportunity on the 4H timeframe.The S&P500 is highly overbought on the 1W technical outlook (RSI = 77.490, MACD = 202.930, ADX = 73.429) and hasn't provided the slightest correction under the key 1D MA50 trendline since November 3rd 2023. In spite of that, the index can keep rising without providing such a correction, let alone enable us to time it. Its structure of this nonstop rise since January 31st is the Channel Up you see on this chart. We are on the 4H timeframe which filters out the overbought technical indicators on the higher timeframes and is the only chart capable of trading with a high success rate at the moment. As you can see, the strongest signal inside this pattern has been a Buy when the 4H MACD makes a Bullish Cross and a Sell when it makes a Bearish Cross. At the moment it is after a Bearish Cross, so the short term trend is a Sell. All recent pullbacks have hit at least the 1D MA50 and the latest one even the 1D MA100 on the lower magnitude so far of -1.58%. Consequently, we are targeting the 1D MA100 on -1.58% from the top (TP = 5,180). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by InvestingScope
1
S&P500 Top formed on the 19 month Channel Up. Correction to 4950The S&P500 index hit yesterday the top of the 19 month Channel Up. That was the first time since it started trading. This is a strong sell signal and considering that the MA50 (1d) has been intact since the November 3rd 2023 bullish break out, we expect to cross under it now. Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the current market price. Targets: 1. 4950 (-6.00%, 0.618 Fib and Support A). Tips: 1. The RSI (1w) is posting the same sequence just under the Rising Resistance that it did during the July 27th 2023 High. An additional sell signal. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TradingBrokersView
1
Bullish But Wait Until Feb 27th to go Big LongThe black arrow/path is my near-term forecast, I expect price to trade along this trajectory. As the title indicates, the market is near-term bullish but don't enter long or add until Feb 27th for the following reasons: 1) chart perspective : The structure is setting up for a sustained break of 5039 to make a final leg higher to complete a smaller degree wave 5 (I didn't draw the Elliot Wave Count in my chart, just trust me that we just completed a smaller degree wave 4 and are looking for confirmation that 5 has begun). Price will continue slightly higher for the next 1-3 days (2/22-2/26) and then consolidate - likely forming a w fractal - through Feb 28th (next Wednesday). After that it will make the sustained break higher and run through early March before topping. 2) logical perspective : new bulls (especially retail) is going to chase this gap up in SPY tomorrow (extra FOMO due to the NVDA jump) and they'll buy ignorant Feb 23 - Mar 1 OTM calls that are designed to expire worthless. If you're not already in you're late, its all good I'm not in yet. Simultaneously the perma-bears will pile in thinking its "over-extended" ... everybody playing loses temporarily. Waiting until 2/27 will also give this enough tome to confirm long, a break back below 5000 is a warning sign for bulls and a break back below 4969 is Bearish. The play is to wait until the implied volatility on calls for Mar 15 expiry or later cools off while price consolidates around 5039 (SPY 501). Buy SPY 505.00 calls on Feb 27 to prepare for the bigger move staring on Feb 28 (earliest expiration you should be eying is Mar 15, but I'm going to go out to April). ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BREAKDOWN of Key Levels and Path to Target: - Breakout level = 5039.20 - Initial target range = 5050-5058, with point target 5074 -The upside continuation to this range will happen fast by 2/22-2/26, then it will consolidate between 5017 and 5088 as it prepares to make a sustained break of 5039. Don't FOMO. - SPX and general market will make its main run from 2/28 to 3/15/2024. Goal Target = 5153 , but it can go as high as 5208 before consolidating again or pulling back. - Once you follow these directions and enter long (unless I post an update saying "cancel that"), the trailing stop loss will be the dotted black upsloping line. ~Good Luck This is the word of the Lord .
OANDA:SPX500USD
by JerryManders
26
The FOMC meeting, rising wedge, and VIX dropYesterday’s FOMC meeting ended as widely anticipated, with no change to monetary policy. During the press conference, the FED’s chairman reiterated the central bank’s commitment to bringing inflation under control and outlined a strong economy and tight labor market. Jerome Powell also described inflation as being on a downward trajectory and explained the need to stay attentive to inflation rates. In addition to that, he acknowledged the emergence of some negative effects of high interest rates on the economy. Markets reacted positively to Jerome Powell’s statements and rallied across the board. The SPX broke above $5,200 and established a new all-time high at $5,226. Simultaneously, the VIX experienced a significant drop that led to the distortion of its broadening structure on the daily chart. While the SPX remains over-extended above the upward-sloping channel, this drop could foreshadow the SPX’s move slightly higher, in the area between $5,300 and $5,350. Particular things to watch out for in the following days include the next developments with the VIX, the rejection/success of RSI breaking above 70 points (on the daily time frame), the support at $5,180, and the pattern resembling a rising wedge (on the 4-hour time frame). Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the VIX’s daily graph. The yellow arrow indicates a breakout below the lower trendline, distorting the structure with higher peaks and higher troughs. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows the 4-hour chart of the SPX. Yellow dashed lines highlight the pattern resembling a rising wedge formation. Here are some of the most important statements from Jerome Powell’s speech: “Inflation has eased substantially while the labor market has remained strong, and that is very good news. But inflation is still too high, ongoing progress in bringing it down is not assured, and the path forward is uncertain. We are fully committed to returning inflation to our 2 percent goal.” “Our restrictive stance of monetary policy has been putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation. As labor market tightness has eased and progress on inflation has continued, the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance.” “Activity in the housing sector was subdued over the past year, largely reflecting high mortgage rates. High interest rates also appear to have weighed on business fixed investment. In our Summary of Economic Projections, Committee participants generally expect GDP growth to slow from last year’s pace, with a median projection of 2.1 percent this year and 2 percent over the next two years.” “Over the past three months, payroll job gains averaged 265 thousand jobs per month. The unemployment rate has edged up but remains low, at 3.9 percent. Strong job creation has been accompanied by an increase in the supply of workers, reflecting increases in participation among individuals aged 25 to 54 years and a continued strong pace of immigration” “We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle and that, if the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year. The economic outlook is uncertain, however, and we remain highly attentive to inflation risks. We are prepared to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for longer, if appropriate.” “We know that reducing policy restraint too soon or too much could result in a reversal of the progress we have seen on inflation and ultimately require even tighter policy to get inflation back to 2 percent.” “ If the economy evolves as projected, the median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 4.6 percent at the end of this year, 3.9 percent at the end of 2025, and 3.1 percent at the end of 2026—still above the median longer-term funds rate.” “Turning to our balance sheet, our securities holdings have declined by nearly $1.5 trillion since the Committee began reducing our portfolio.” Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXLong
by Tradersweekly
S&P500 History may not repeat itself, but it does often rhyme.In the infamous words of Mark Twain, we are analyzing today the S&P500 index (SPX) on the long-term 1W time-frame. This is a cyclical perspective obviously, attempting to find similarities between past and present price action, in anticipation of projecting the trend in the near future. As you can see, the index is replicating quite closely the 1W price action from June 2015 to (so far) March 2017. The 1W RSI Bullish Divergence led to a Bear Cycle bottom on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), then Rally 1 and first consolidation on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) before the Bull Flag (dotted Channel Down) that led to Rally 2. Based on the overbought 1W RSI, it appears that the index may entering a short-term pull-back period. If it continues to follow that pattern this closely, don't expect that pull-back to be considerably greater than -3.15%. Technically if the 1W RSI breaks below its MA (yellow trend-line), it will be time to start buying again for Rally 3. By early 2025, it should be closer to the 3.0 Fibonacci extension, which gives us a rough target for our buying at 6500. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
1
ES / SPY In A Correction Phase After A Measured MoveThree weeks prior, the market completed a bullish leg measured move. This pattern is significant as markets often exhibit a tendency to move in pairs, a phenomenon observable across all time frames. This behavior is rooted in the psychological aspects of market dynamics, wherein the market tends to repeat actions twice. This concept is underscored by market geometry, which includes two-legged pullbacks, measured moves, second entries, among others. The market recently reached 5256, a likely target for many traders, followed by the formation of an inside bar. This development has led to a three-week consolidation phase for ES as it assimilates the previous move before potentially initiating another. The bullish outlook remains intact as long as the price holds above 5126 on the weekly timeframe. The upcoming FOMC meeting adds an additional layer of significance to these levels, as they will likely determine whether a higher timeframe pullback ensues or if the current trend continues.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by AmpedTrading
S&P500 Testing the 4H MA50. Rejection or bullish breakout again?The S&P500 (SPX) broke on Friday below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which isn't yet a bearish confirmation as it has done so numerous time within December's Channel Up pattern. What would be a sell signal though, is getting rejected and fail to close a 4H candle above the 4H MA50 again. We will then look for the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and target Support 1 at 5050, where the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level along with the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) will provide the first Zone of Support for the short-term. If however the index does close a 4H candle above the 4H MA50, then the Channel Up pattern should continue and in that case we will buy and target 5185 (Resistance). Note though that the 4H RSI is trading within a Channel Down since the February 23 High, almost 1 month, which is a major Bearish Divergence against the price's Channel Up. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TradingShot
1
🔜 S&P 500. A key point between Bull Extension and Bear ReversalThe S&P 500 Index ( SPY) Wednesday closed down -0.22%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index DIA closed up +0.10%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index (QQQ) closed down -0.83%. Stocks Wednesday saw downward pressure from the +4.1 bp rise in the 10-year T-note and a sell-off of more than -2% in key chip stocks. However, the Dow Jones Industrials saw support from blue chips such as 3M (MMM), with a gain of +5.42%, and gains of more than +1% in Travelers (TRV), Chevron (CVX), Caterpillar (CAT), Home Depot (HD), NIKE (NKE), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Coca Cola (KO). Stocks on Wednesday gave back some ground after Tuesday’s +1.5% rally in the Nasdaq 100 index that was sparked by optimism that the U.S. Feb CPI report was not as bad as feared and the Feb core CPI dipped to a 2-3/4 year low of +3.8% y/y. However, the Feb headline CPI of +3.2% y/y was slightly above expectations of +3.1% and was 0.2 points above last June’s 2-3/4 year low of +3.0%. Both CPI measures remain well above the Fed’s +2% inflation target. Fed Breadcrumbs Fed Chair Powell said last week that the Fed is “not far” from having enough confidence to cut interest rates. However, the markets are discounting the odds at virtually zero that the Fed will cut interest rates at its meeting next week since inflation is still too far above target. The odds for a rate cut are much better for the June meeting. The markets are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 1% for next week’s March 19-20 FOMC meeting, 13% for the following meeting on April 30-May 1, and 73% for the meeting after that on June 11-12. Economic Reports In some positive news for the housing market, the MBA mortgage applications index rose +7.1% in the week ended March 8, after rising +9.7% in the previous week. Mortgage purchases rose +4.7%, and refinancings rose +12.2%. The MBA’s average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the latest week fell to a 5-week low of 6.84% from 7.02% in the previous week. The mortgage rate is currently only 13 bp above the 10-month low of 6.71% posted in December. On the U.S. economic report front, the markets are awaiting Thursday’s U.S. retail sales and PPI reports. Feb retail sales are expected to show an increase of +0.8% m/m, reversing Jan’s -0.8% decline. Feb retail sales ex-autos are expected to rise +0.5% m/m, reversing most of Jan’s -0.6% decline. The Feb final-demand PPI is expected to rise to +1.2% y/y from Jan’s +0.9%, but the core PPI is expected to ease to +1.9% y/y from Jan’s +2.0%. Interest Rates June 10-year T-notes (ZNM24) Wednesday closed down -7.5 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield rose by +4.1 bp to 4.192%, up from last Friday’s 5-week low of 4.034%. T-note prices saw weakness on (1) carry-over bearishness from Tuesday’s stronger-than-expected CPI report, and (2) Wednesday’s slight rise in the 10-year breakeven inflation expectations rate to 2.31%. T-note prices also saw supply overhang with the Treasury in the market again Wednesday, along with strong corporate bond issuance. The Treasury Wednesday sold $25 billion of 30-year T-bonds, after selling $54 billion of 3-year T-notes on Monday and $42 billion of 10-year T-notes on Tuesday. Inflation Fears Oil prices rose about 3% to a four-month high on Thursday (March 14) on a surprise withdrawal in US crude inventories reported on Wednesday (March 13), a bigger-than-expected drop in US petrol stocks and potential supply disruptions after recent terrorist Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. Putin says Ukraine trying to disrupt Russia's presidential election. Brent crude oil futures rose to nearly $85 per barrel - the highest mark since November, 2023. In technical terms, crude oil futures are on positive path in 2024 with near 9% YTD return, attempt to hold firmly above weekly SMA(52), while the epic triangle' breakthrough can be nearby. High Risk - High Reward S&P500 index (SPY) is on positive path in 2024 with +9.28% YTD return in this time. This is a 3rd highest YTD return by this time of year, next to 2012 and 2019 returns by mid-March. Technical graph for S&P500 indicates that we are near upper line of upside channel, thanks to recent Santa rally and slight signs of US Govt Treasuries buyout in Q4 2023. Following this path, there can a possible Bull extension, as Reversed Head-and-Shoulders Price Pattern can be in further development. On the other hand, inflation fears can extend also, just to erase all the Bullish gain in 2024.
AMEX:SPY
by Pandorra
S&P500 Overbought. Relief correction very probable.The S&P500 index (SPX) is trading at the top of the 17-month Channel Up with the 1W RSI overbought and at its highest (78.00) in more than 4 years (since January 2020). Once it breaks below its MA level (yellow trend-line), it will be a sell confirmation, which is the signal that flashed on February 20 2023 and July 31 2023. The minimum decline within this Channel Up pattern has been -5.84%, so our sell target is 4900. Then we will start buying again and if it drops more (i.e. below Support 1), we will reserve our last buy entry on Support 2 at 4665, which will still be marginally above the maximum decline of -10.96% and still within the Channel Up. After the correction, at any point the 1W RSI breaks above its MA again, it will be a bullish break-out signal. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TradingShot
1
S&P500 This is the end of the 5 month Bullish Leg.S&P500 / US500 is approaching the top of a Fibonacci Channel Up that goes back all the way to August 2022. The 1day MA50 has been in firm support since November 3rd 2023 but as the 1day RSI is squeezed inside a Triangle pattern, a break out is inevitable. This is technically more likely to be to the downside due to this overbought multi month momentum near the top of the Channel. Sell and target 4950 (Support A, 0.382 Channel Fib and -6.00% from the top). Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TheCryptagon
2
S&P 500: Turn around! 🔄After the S&P was able to close the price gap of the previous trading week, bullish pressure pushed the index up again. We have drawn a clear demarcation between our two scenarios with the resistance at 5254 points. Primarily, we categorize the magenta wave (1) as finished. The current wave (2) correction should come to an end in our magenta Target Zone (coordinates: 4635 – 4340 points). If, on the other hand, the index surpasses the resistance level at 5254 points, the internal wave Alt.5 in turquoise as well as the superordinate magenta wave Alt.(1) will reach a higher level again. We assign a probability of 30% to this alternative scenario.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by MarketIntel
S&P500 Tight Channel Up calls for buying unless it breaks.S&P500 is trading inside a narrow Channel Up pattern. As long as the price stays inside, we remain bullish on the index. The ralies inside it have been quite symmetric as well. The MA50 (1d) has been supporting this strong bullish trend since November 03 2023. Trading Plan: 1. Buy as long as the price remains inside the Channel Up. 2. Sell if it breaks below it (Support 1 in play). Targets: 1. 5260 (+ 4.34% symmetric bullish leg). 2. 4920 (Support 2). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) is inside a Triangle pattern. Either direction it breaks to, it will be an early trend signal, so keep an eye. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TradingBrokersView
1
Indices:🔴Is it the major market structure shift?🔴 Well As you can see, we can see the SMT here so we can expect a downtrend. The first condition is, that we see the price close the candle body below the bullish FVG, only then can we expect the price to go lower to collect the sell-side liquidity. After that, If the first condition occurs, we need the candle closure below the sell side liquidity, then the price activates the bearish breaker block and the breaker can act as a strong resistance and pull the price down. 💡Wait for the update! 🗓️10/03/2024 🔎 DYOR 💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
CBOT_MINI:YMH2024Short
by VahidTradingCR
1
S&P 500 approaches key resistance at 5165Watch This Resistance Level on the S&P 500 ( ES Futures ). ...................................................................................................................... We are not registered or licensed in any jurisdiction whatsoever to provide investing advice or anything of an advisory or consultancy nature. and are therefore are unqualified to give investment recommendations. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed investment professional before investing. This communication is never to be used as the basis of making investment decisions, and it is for entertainment purposes only.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by CryptoTrend-Alerts
S&P500: Sell opportunity for at least 1 month.S&P500 is bullish on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 61.459, MACD = 50.390, ADX = 31.702) but the RSI has turned sideways for a long time which is the same pattern that led to the July 27th 2023 High. The index has had three major corrections inside the long term Channel Up, ranging from -8.16% to -10.64%. We expect the index to decline by at least -8.00% in the next 1 month and approach the 1D MA200 (TP = 4,750), which is intact since November 2nd 2023. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by InvestingScope
S&P-500 E-Mini: Full Fibonacci SchematicsThis is a completely full and completed schematic of CME's E-mini S&P 500 Contract. This contract started in 1997 so there are decades of data not accounted for on the real chart. However, these are just as viable and important as the Standard & Poors 500 Indice. Let us take a look at the separate (chronological) boxes and understand what they are... #1 is VERY IMPORTANT as this has the first pair of Fib Spikes for ES1 which are the red and white lines coming across the chart. ALSO, we see an extension from the COVID low ( YELLOW ) and this extension exactly determined the high at 4800 and the approximate bottom. #1 and #3 also have two up schematics in RED originating from the local low from 3500. These are VERY IMPORTANT SCHEMATICS IN 1 and 3. #2 and #4 are the first two pairs of Fibonacci Extensions for ES1. In both, we have fib forks. In #4 there are 2 of the forks. ( yellow and white ) #3, #5, #6, and #7 are the start of the next structured schematic. #3 contains the second set of fib forks for ES1. 5, 6, and 7 are all from the same structure but have completely different schematics. #7 Contains a very important schematic of Fib Forks stemming from the inception of ES1. (YELLOW) #8 is a formation from the COVID lows of 2020. We see the third set of Fib Spikes/Forks on ES1 here and also a Fib Schematic too. One piece of the schematic is in #1 in YELLOW and is a very important extension. It belongs in #8 but I have it in #1 because it has shown its utility.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by MichaelBsul
3
S&P 500 prime for a correction, BUT are we done with the run?How long do we stay below 5400 - SP500? is the real question. Are we going to see a sideways range through the fall? Do we get a rip roaring 10-15% correction and "L" or even better "V" recovery? The path does not matter as much but here is my commentary anyway. I think that we see a temporary high in early April as we power through the rest of Q1 earnings then take a breath.12% correction? -> 480 looks like a good support? over a couple months? May usually sucks, do we see a bottom in May with the "sell in May and go away" crowd? But I cant imagine much of a stay there with a gap down 5% bull run or a 3% turn around Tuesday. Not to mention the June cut expectations that will get early mover money flowing. I think the news goes with the fed cuts rates minus some black swan. You can almost mark our cycles to the fed rate decisions over the past 3-4 years. I could see a build up into June with expectations of rate cuts. Inflation remains in a downward trend. Manufacturing has been contracting. The big R word won't go away! Tax returns may stem a few more higher inflation readings that scare the market. Good correction fodder. But also good rate cut fodder. My Elliott wave charting (my own work) tells me that we could be near the top of wave 3 with a wave 5 to go. (Mind you I believe this is part of large wave 3. LETS GO 2025. Years of the bull. ROARING 20s.) Billions of dollars of stimulus sloshing around. Intel microchip plant in IN. Ford Blue Oval in TN Toyota in NC. Look at United Rentals.. Looking at their revenue a 40% increase since pre stimulus. 300 % increase in market cap in the same time frame. Maybe you want to say "but Zaphod... inflation". Even if you say the price has doubled for market value rentals, that is still 150% increase in expectations. Growth is expected with a 20 PE. That is a massive amount of building. Building infrastructure to support technology advances, our massive vehicle trash pile, the AI revolution, war machines, airplanes etc... Billions of dollars, then billions more dumped into these projects. Small caps and medium cap: Russell 2k, Even split SP500: The catch up trade could certainly drive us higher into 2025. All the billions that people just cashed out of Apple and Tesla(watch out below!), just looking for a new home. Let the rate cuts come and watch the second half of this year explode. 5800? Final note for today: exponential growth is going to continue until the collapse of society. 2% inflation charted is still exponential. Stay in the market, be a bull, you win more. You will hate the wild rides down unless you are patient and GREEDY when the fear is real. I am obviously making all this up to fan my biases so do your own speculating. Comment the thoughts below.
AMEX:SPYLong
by ZaphodBeebz