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Es1

S&P500 Is it timed for a correction until the Fed Decision?The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a long-term Channel Up since the October 13 2022 market bottom and since last Friday, the price has been griding on its top (Higher Highs trend-line). The longer it fails to convincingly break and close a full week above it, the more likely it is to deliver a technical pull-back. On that technical setting, the 1D RSI has been on a lengthy Bearish Divergence (Lower Highs) since December 19 2023, which is similar to the one that led to the July 27 2023 Channel Up Higher High and the subsequent -10.96% correction. In fact the 1D RSI has printed a peak pattern (red circle) similar to all previous 3 Higher Highs that gave corrections ranging from -9.17% to -10.96%. July 27 2023 initially delivered a -5.84% pull-back before extending to -10.96%. From a fundamental perspective though, if the market indeed gets rejected here and starts pulling back, it would seem ideally timed for a bottom near the next Fed Rate Decision meeting on March 20 2024, where the policymakers may give clearer hints for a June cut. The correction's targets can only be determined technically though, so a potential -5.84% pull-back takes us marginally below Support 1 at 4845, right on the 0.382 Fibonacci Channel retracement level. If the market overreacts to the Fed, then a potential extension gives a rough 2nd Target at 4755, within Fib 0.5 and 0.618, which will approach the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). On the current phase of the Bull Cycle we are at though, it is very doubtful to see in the near future stronger corrections. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TradingShot
2
Weakness in Bullish momentum. Did we see the top for Nasdaq?Lets look at CAPITALCOM:DXY Currently with a Bullish structure and slow build up Long. Seems it is attempting to reach that Monthly Area low. Bullish Dollar=Bearish Equities....Right? Well this has not been the case these particular past couple of weeks. We have not seen with clarity the inverse correlation between DXY and Equities. In fact everything has been manipulated up. Yes! I wrote manipulated do not get hung up on the word. Back to Indices. CME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! CBOT_MINI:YM1! These have a strong Bullish structure. NQ is showing signs of repricing with this pullback. -Is it sufficient to slow down current Bullish momentum? -Is NQ leading the indices in a reversal? These are all valid questions, yet we do not have enough data to validate either or. Bearish Equities seasonality could have kicked in. This is the week of confirmation or at the very least for price to provide some sort of hint. My targets for NQ providing price action confirms it are either a repricing to 17107.25 or a break of Highs. -If we take out lows first then I would expect price to rally once again and make another attempt at Highs. -An attempt at highs at the beginning of the week will look favorable for the Bears salivating over the Volume Void right at 17107.25 Here is a view of Weekly Charts for: ES YM NQ
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by JP_Tru
S&P500 This Bull Cycle is far from over.On this analysis we view the S&P500 (SPX) from the longer term perspective of the 1M time-frame in order to answer the question of why it hasn't pulled-back since the October 2023 Low. The answer can be given by observing the index from a cyclical point of view. First, with the exception of the March 2020 COVID flash crash and more recently October 2022, the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), was intact since October 2011. Even during those two tests, it never closed a monthly (1M) candle below it. This makes it the current long-term Support and every pull-back towards it is a buy opportunity on the lowest possible risk. The catalyst on this long-term analysis is the Channel Down that started on the 1M RSI since the September 2015 Low. Every decline near its bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) is a buy opportunity, while near its top (Lower Highs trend-line) is a sell. Right now the Cycle (5th since the bottom of the 2008-2009 Housing Crisis) is at the point after its 1st mid-cycle correction (blue circle) where the 1M RSI typically bounces off its MA (yellow) trend-line. This hasn't just happened within the RSI's Channel Down but is also a characteristic of all Cycles since the bottom of the 2008-2009 Housing Crisis. At the same time, the 1M MACD rises on a Bullish Cross. As a result, even though a short-term pull-back can be technically justified, the current Bull Cycle is far from over as the 1M RSI hasn't approached the Channel's top. Technically that should be towards the fall of 2024 followed by a volatile 2025. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
4
Hyped about the possibilities of NQWhy I'm so hyped?... We just had a perfect start of a Bullish weekly model. Bearish Mon-Tues. stablishing weekly lows on Tuesday. Next will be the setting of the Weekly highs on Wed-Thursday with the following distribution on Friday if any. If you look at the NQ chart we went from internal to internal with big boy rejection of that 4H level. Normally under these circumstances price goes from internal to external. Our next external is 18026 about 200 points away from current price. Now, I do not expect for us to go straight there everyone here knows price does not move like that but the case is being made by several factors A Weakening Dollar after the Monthly area rejection A strengthening Bond market - so-so Strength in the small caps which is usually a good indication of risk on scenarios Election year (Never discount the power of Big Brother) Lets see what happens.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by JP_Tru
S&P500 Is a -3% pull-back probable here?The S&P500 index (SPX) is having another bullish week with the current green 1W candle being the strongest since the first week of the year. Nonetheless with the 1W RSI overbought at 75.00 and the price very close to the Higher Highs trend-line that started on the late November 2022 High, a short-term pull-back seems probable at the moment. The long-term price action since 2016 shows that every time this 1W RSI overbought pattern emerges, and the index is trading near (or at) the Higher Highs trend-line, it makes a correction between -3.10% and -4.50%. From the current levels, the minimum of -3.10% pull-back would deliver prices around 4950 while a -4.50% one, prices around 4865. Long-term traders can look to continue buying such dips as long as the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) is supporting. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXShort
by TradingShot
2
S&P500: 1W MACD about to make a Bearish Cross. Huge sell signal.The S&P500 is on the second straight bearish 1W candle and if the week closes this way, it will be the first series of red 1W candles since the October 23rd 2023 bottom. The 1D timeframe has already turned neutral (RSI = 51.449, MACD = 32.820, ADX = 32.340) after a prolonged period inside the overbought territory, so we can claim that a medium term correction has started. A 1W MACD Bearish Cross will confirm it, as it has been the single most major long term sell signal in the past 1.5 years. The last 1W MACD Bearish Cross was formed after the August 14th 2023 1W candle and the then declined by -8.58% initially to reach the 1W MA50 and then completed a -10.90% decline to form a HL at the bottom of the Channel Up. -8.00% and -9.00% corrections have been common on MACD Bearish Crosses. In any case, this indicates that the S&P500 can drop to 4,650 (-8.00%) in order for the market to see if the 1W MA50 can hold as a long term Support after an incredible 4 month rally. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by InvestingScope
1
S&P500 Short-term pull-back is very likely now.The S&P500 has hit (even surpassed on the liner scale) the top of the 16-month Channel Up pattern with the 1D RSI on a Bearish Divergence (price on Higher Highs while the RSI on Lower Highs). If the price closes a 1D candle below the 4H MA100 (red trend-line), which is dangerously close to, it will be the first such bearish signal since August 02 2023 and the previous Higher High of the Channel Up. Of course the final confirmation comes if the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) breaks but that is currently on Support 1 and our first Target at 4845. So if the 1D MA50 breaks, we will take a new short and extend selling with a 4755 Target, which represents a -5.84% decline from the current top, similar to the August 18 2023 pull-back. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TradingShot
1
Market Forecast: The Week Ahead in ES, NQ, RTY, and 10 YRIn this video, I provide an in-depth market forecast for the week ahead in the ES (S&P 500 E-mini), NQ (Nasdaq E-mini), RTY (Russell 2000 Index), and 10 YR (10-Year Treasury Note) markets. I am using a few key technical indicators and market trends to give you valuable insights into potential price movements and trading opportunities. Indicators used in this video are Bollinger Bands (20,3), Beacon Indicator, Anchored VWAP's, and the 5 day Simple Moving Average.
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by anthonycrudele
Whoever Wins the 2024 Election May Have a Difficult PresidencyDISCLAIMER: THIS IS A VERY LONG READ . Monday is Presidents Day. In America, this is a day we honor 46 individuals who have held that office both past and present. Ask anyone who keeps up with current news and events, and they will agree, America is a politically divided nation. The vitriol, one political party has for the other, seems like it’s never been this bad; ( and ) the language used today seems more abusive. Nowadays, It’s common to be out and to see bumper stickers, t-shirts and roadside bill boards that use the most vulgar phrases to describe the opposition. America appears to have descended to a place in civilized society where it is perfectly acceptable to label someone with opposing political views, a traitor. History tells us, partisan polarization has always been a cultural feature of America. We forget the 1828 Presidential elections termed the phrase “ Mudslinging ”, and saw the collapse of The Federalist Party, which ushered in Jacksonian Democracy. That was the first election cycle where in campaign insults and salacious innuendo was personalized among the candidates. I’m sure American society in the early 19th century uttered a collective “ oh my! ”, just like we’re all uttering today. Back then slogans and platforms mention that election was “… for the very Soul of our Country ”. Sound familiar? I’ve traded energy futures for the past 30 years. Except for world war, I’ve seen it all. I was active in the markets on the day when crude oil futures went -$31 dollars (That’s negative $31 dollars). I’ve been an active trader during every geo-political disagreement, conflict, economic crisis (Greece, 2008 Great Financial Crisis), political assassinations, etc., of the last 30 years…and although I never thought possible, a global pandemic to properly bookend my career. So, when I see a bumper sticker that says “ High Gas Prices? Thanks Biden! ” I chuckle. The average citizen doesn’t understand that the US President has very little to do with the price of gas at the pump. Now before the hateful comments come, sure, the policies of any administration can affect prices over short periods of time and cause volatility, but the trends that govern energy prices over the intermediate and longer term, has more to do with supply and demand, and the economies of extraction and refining, than anything else a US President can do in the short term. Never accused of being lax, the more than capable energy lobby sees to that. “ Drill Baby Drill ” is mantra to insinuate that to bring prices down, we must drill more, and somehow a Presidential administration is dropping the "Lower Prices" ball. However, leases to acquire energy natural resources on Federal lands are plentiful, and most would be surprised, that a lot of active leases are actually dormant . Capitalism moderates this, Presidents ...very little. We already “Drill Baby Drill” and have done so for the past 20 years. We have the current infrastructure and capacity to extract and refine more oil and gas than any nation on earth. It’s largely the economics of extracting and refining is what dictates production, which in turn, dictates price. Currently, the price of natural gas is approaching historic all-time lows. Nonetheless, (and I do not want to interjet politics) but I have yet to see a bumper sticker that says "LOW GAS PRICES? THANKS BIDEN" . I suspect gas rigs will be coming OFF line in droves as the weeks and months progress, despite what the US President wants , unless the administration decides to increase exports to allied nations. However, even that would only nominally affect short term prices, because the companies extracting the gas have to have the adequate number of rigs online. It truly is a complicated balance as to what constitutes the prices we pay, and to a lesser extent, who is the President. So, as a seasoned trader I regard the election, and current political divisions as, important as a citizen , but as a trader, not so much . To me it’s back ground chatter in the overall larger cyclical conversation we should be having...but are not. However, this article is not about politics, or ideological differences in the US. It’s not about US policy, nor which party is worst for the… “ Soul of our Country ”. It’s about economic cycles, and how THOSE cycles could place the next US President is a very challenging position. I’ll start with visual on the main chart above. These men we honor on President’s Day have largely been along for the cyclical ride. Each of them presiding over different outcomes. Each of them being judged, rightly or wrongly , solely based on good or bad cyclical timing. Cycles are a normal occurrence in all economies. Regardless of the country, they reflect societies consumption and contraction and they are affected by first and foremost quality and duration of life. Societies with the highest quality of life will consume more. While in contrast, those that have low qualities of life will contract and consume less. Next is increased efficiencies through technology, advances in communication, medicine, and construction. Quality and duration of life are more so related to the political and governing structure of the country. When those are comparatively rigid with power residing at the top as compared to other countries, advances in communication and socialization, medicine, and construction lag and can have outsized affects on the business and economic cycles causing large variances and outsized swings. In America, we freak out about inflation as it has recently vacillated between 9% down to 3%...and rightfully so. Now imagine being a citizen of Turkey and having to endure 61% inflation in 2023 . However, the US, being a mature and stable government, these economic cycles are on a more digestible and palatable timeline and the ensuing variances between the extremes are manageable as compared to those of emerging economies, and fledgling governing authorities. Therefore, if the intermediate and shorter terms cycles that govern economic expansion and contraction, are to converge with the longer-term cycles that have more to do with society and are governed more so by political governance and quality of life, how does that play out in real terms? Does a construct exist for determining if a negative long and short cycle will converge? I practice a form of technical analysis called Elliott Wave. Before you think I’m going to tell you, the construct for predicting this cyclical phase is me, and my ability to be somehow be divinely ordained to make such a bold call based on my expertise in Elliott Wave… your wrong . No one can say with an accurate degree of certainty when or if this will ever come to pass. We have historical results on cycles that say such an event would be perfectly normal and on a cyclical time horizon, we're due for one. To me, is somewhat comparative to the geologists who forecast the Yellowstone caldera will erupt tomorrow, or in the next 10,000 years. In the same mindset, data sets suggest its totally reasonable to make the case that the period of the next US president (which is 4 to 8 years) could be such a period as detailed in the above chart. What I can say is Elliott Wave does provide a highly successful methodology based on rules and guidelines, that can offer some intriguing information that can make a more than reasonable case for a cyclical downturn, and forecast the magnitude of it… but not when . However, it's not my intention to educate you on Elliott Wave analysis. I do want to focus on one guideline in particular within this discipline. It's called the theory of alternation. Simply put, it states that if wave 2 (BLUE (II) ON ABOVE CHART) is shallow, or short in timeframe...then the wave 4 (BLUE (IV) ON THE ABOVE CHART) will be deep, and or long in duration, and thereby alternating. I have labeled the above chart taking alternation into account. However, my intention this morning is to call attention to the events that were present during wave (II) and if those events can tell us anything about wave (IV) as a cycle, the timing and magnitude, and more specifically, do the events alternate as well . Wave (II) consisted of the following events in chronological order. (1) Free Banking Era, (2) WW1, (3) Spanish Flu of 1918, which was moderated by sheltering in place and when those socialisation curbs were lifted, led to the expansion of the roaring 1920's which led to (4) 1929 stock market crash (5) Great depression (6) and culminated in The Glass Steagall act passing as a provision of The Banking Act of 1935 effectively ending the Free Banking Era and limiting what commercial and investment banks can do with respect to public money and taking risks. Today, we know that (1) Glass-Steagall was repealed in 1999, which ushered in a sort of new FREE banking era, which caused the financial crisis of 2008 because banks did exactly what that repealed legislation was designed to prevent (3) Society then endured another variant of the 1918 Spanish Flu in 2020 called COVID-19 which caused us to shelter in place, which affected the global supply chain and has led to a large economic expansion that most economist are baffled to this day by the length and degree in which it has endured. Making this current time period very reminiscent of the roaring 1920’s. It seems the comparative events are similar but the chronological occurrences seem to be alternating as well. Except one. NO STOCK MARKET CRASH. Is this just the last missing event in an alternation that has been decades in the making? I obviously can't say. What I can say, whoever wins the 2024 President Election may not have an easy go of it. Best to all, Chris
SP:SPX
by maikisch
4
S&P500: Last pump before a correction.S&P500 is on healthy bullish technicals both on the 4H (RSI = 63.806, MACD = 7.990, ADX = 31.789) as well as the 1D (RSI = 64.592) timeframes as it keeps rising inside a six week Channel Up. According to the last HH wave we are expecting a top on the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. If that's coupled with the 4H RSI hitting the top of its Rectangle, we will short the market at that level and target the Channel's bottom and the S1 level (TP = 4,920). As long as the 4H MA200 holds, it will be a buy entry. If crossed, then the bullish pattern is negated and we will short again, aiming for the S3 level (TP = 4,715) and a potential contact with the 1D MA100. It will be almost a -8.00% correction, a healthy pullback on the 1D scale. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500
by InvestingScope
3
Nasdaq-100 Index Futures. Bearish Channel In DevelopmentAI-related companies lost $190 billion in stock market value late on Tuesday after Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT , Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOG and Advanced Micro Devices NASDAQ:AMD delivered quarterly results that failed to impress investors who had sent their stocks soaring. The selloff following the tech giants' reports after the bell underscored investors' elevated expectations following an AI-fueled stock market rally in recent months that propelled their shares to record highs with the promise of incorporating the technology across the corporate landscape. Alphabet dropped 5.6% after the Google-parent's December-quarter ad revenue missed expectations. Alphabet also said its spending on data centers to support its AI plans would jump this year, highlighting the costs of its fierce competition against AI rival Microsoft. While Google Cloud revenue growth slightly topped Wall Street targets, boosted by interest in AI, Microsoft's Azure grew faster. Microsoft beat analyst estimates for quarterly revenue as new AI features helped attract customers to its cloud and Windows services. However, its stock fell 0.7% in extended trade after briefly hitting an intra-day record high earlier on Tuesday. Optimism about AI pushed Microsoft's stock market value above $3 trillion this month, eclipsing Apple NASDAQ:AAPL . Chipmaker Advanced Micro tumbled 6% after its forecast for first-quarter revenue missed estimates, even as it projected strong sales for its AI processors. Shares of Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA , which have surged 27% in January after more than tripling last year on AI optimism, also gave back some of those gain in extended trade, last down over 2%. Server maker Super Micro Computer NASDAQ:SMCI , another company that has benefited from AI-related demand, dropped over 3%. Earlier on Tuesday, it had climbed to a record high after delivering amazing quarterly results the day before. The main technical graph for Nasdaq-100 Micro E-Mini Futures CME_MINI:MNQ1! illustrates that bearish channel is in development in this time, where 17800 points is the upper (resistance) side and 17000 points level becomes attractive to watch. 3-months mid-term VIX Futures spread (the difference between front, February, 2024 VIX Futures contract CBOE:VXG2024 and May, 2024 VIX Futures contract CBOE:VXK2024 that is 3 months ahead) still is in Bearish mode, saying there's no panic yet on the streets. 50/200-hours MACD says btw, bearish sentiment becomes more active.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by Pandorra
S&P500 +10year cheatsheet tells you what to do next!On this analysis we look into the S&P500 index (SPX) from a very long-term angle, the 1W time-frame going back more than 13 years, since November 2010. That was when the first Megaphone pattern emerged since the 2009 market bottom of the U.S. Housing (sub-prime) crisis that after testing the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) it found Support and transitioned into a Channel Up. This is a similar pattern that we are at since the previous 2021 market All Time High (ATH) that led to the 2022 Inflation Bear Cycle. In fact since 2009 there have been (including 2022) 4 such cyclical patterns in total and another common characteristic has been that the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) has been the Support throughout the uptrend. In our recent pattern, that was tested in October 2023, held, and gave rise to the enormous November - February rally. That turned the 1W RSI overbought above 70.00 for the first time since July 24 2023, which caused the 3-month pull-back. In fact, when the 1W RSI broke that high into overbought territory during the previous 3 Cycles, SPX at best consolidated if not pull-back for 4-6 weeks. In any case, this +10 year 'Cheatsheet' is telling you that as long as the 1W MA50 holds (which is considerably lower), the next 4 weeks at least are a buy opportunity, at least once the index hits the 1D MA50 again. And of course the upside, in a year of expected rate cuts and U.S. Presidential elections, is significant not just purely from a technical point of view. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
3
S&P500: Time to turn back 🔄For the S&P 500, we are primarily assuming that the sideways phase will initially resolve itself to the downside. In the further sequence, the correction should continue into the magenta Target Zone (coordinates: 4540 - 4300 points). Within this zone we then locate the low of the turquoise wave (ii), which should mark a change of direction. In the context of our alternative scenario, on the other hand, we still consider it 25% likely that the wave Alt.(i) in turquoise will make another new high above the aforementioned 4997-point mark. Either way, however, we expect a setback afterwards, which should offer the opportunity to enter long positions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MarketIntel
VIX showing that tension is expected soon in the stock markets.When we looked at the Volatility Index (VIX) on our November 07 2023 analysis (see chart below) we compared it with the S&P500 index (SPX) : The S&P500 has reached the top of its Channel Up, while the VIX bottomed and is consolidating on a price action that is very similar to the July 27 2023 Low, which was the former Higher High of the S&P500 Channel Up. Today we plot both VIX and the S&P500 on the same chart and not side by side. As you can see VIX's 1D RSI has bottomed and is rising within a Bullish Megaphone, indicating that the price has already bottomed, which is a Lower Low on the Channel Down pattern it has been trading within since the September 28 2022 High (which has also been the start of the 2023 recovery year for the stock markets). The SPX is illustrated by the thin black trend-line and being negatively correlated in nature, when VIX declined within this Channel, the stocks rose and vice versa. Since October 23 2023, VIX started to decline again and that sparked the stock rise which is holding up to this day. VIX's bottom and rise though above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) within the Bullish Megaphone we just mentioned above, is an indication that the SPX has topped, similar to the February 02 2023 and July 27 2023 Highs, which where Lows for VIX's Channel Down. The chart clearly shows that VIX has just started its own (dashed) Bullish Megaphone (has always done so a little after the RSI Bullish Megaphone) and that was been the start of the S&P500 decline during the Higher Highs we mentioned. As a result, we expect VIX's volatility to apply high pressure on the stock market in the next 4-6 weeks, which should technically bottom and turn into a buy opportunity again only after VIX closes a 1D candle below both the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as it did on November 02 and March 28 2023. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:VIX
by TradingShot
4
S&P500 Bearish Divergence on 1D RSI points to a correction.The S&P500 index (SPX) has reached the top of the long-term Channel Up pattern that started on the October 13 2022 market bottom. This development is a strong sell signal on its own but it gets even stronger as the 1D RSI has been within a Channel Down since December 19, while the price was rising within a Channel Up, which is a technical Bearish Divergence. The very same Bearish Divergence that led to the July 27 2023 Higher High and was followed by a 3-month almost -11.00% correction. The first wave of that correction was -5.84% and has been the minimum correction range in 2023, settling just above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. As a result that minimum will be our target and its at 4700, as we may see a bullish reaction going closer to the mid-March Fed Rate Decision (in expectations of rate cuts). Technically though, we can see a longer correctional wave to -9.26% (like the Bearish Leg that bottomed on March 13 2023) that could test the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), or even almost -11.00% (like the one that bottomed on October 27 2023). Notice how each of those potential correction targets are conveniently placed around key Support or Fibonacci retracement levels. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TradingShot
2
S&P500: Channel Up topped. Correction possible.S&P500 is only a few points away from hitting the HL trendline of the long term Channel Up (started on the October 13 2022 Low). That would be the second time to test the patterns absolute Top. The 1D technical outlook is on standard bullish levels (RSI = 67.767, MACD = 49.570, ADX = 38.770) but the 1D RSI in particular has formed the very same pattern it did during the July 2022, January 2023 and December 2022 Channel Up Highs. Consequently we have all the technical evidence we need for a 1 month at least short. The first Support is the 1D MA50 but in order to keep the long term uptrend on sustainable levels, it would be better to approach the 1D MA200. We expect the pullback to almost hit the 1D MA200 and touch at least the 0.382 Fibonacci of the Channel (TP = 4,600). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by InvestingScope