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Es1

Trends heading into the FOMC Rate DecisionOverheated market trends showing a bull market is basically my findings. I have not held into positions, long or short, going into this last surge. I had a relatively promising month in January and decided I would just end it on that note. Trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract) 30m - 4925 Downtrend (1/31/2024) Lower Low 1Hr - 4933 Downtrend (1/31/2024) Higher Low 2Hr - 4925 Downtrend (1/31/2024) Higher Low 3Hr - 4954 Uptrend (1/29/2024) Higher High 4Hr - 4829 Uptrend (1/19/2024) Higher High 6Hr - 4797 Uptrend (1/8/2024) Higher High 12Hr - 4848 Uptrend (1/19/2024) Higher High Daily - 4378 Uptrend (11/3/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High As explained, that 30m is showing the first sign of weakness for this surge to come back at all. Additionally, I read a report with Dow Jones Newswires that most of the insider trading lately has been little to no buying and lots of selling. Basically that means that members with stocks in their own companies are taking profits and not investing further into their company. I wouldn't take this as a sign that they think their company is in trouble, but more as a sign that they feel their stocks are overvalued and it is profitable to sell now and repurchase later. Economic Data today is going to the FED Meeting Minutes and the subsequent statement by Jerome Powell. I don't foresee, nor does the market, of any interest rate movement today. Geopolitical tensions continue to worsen in the Middle East. The latest is a Drone strike in Jordan that killed 3 US Servicemembers. I've been very surprised that the market has not priced in any sort of issues coming from the Israel/Hamas conflict or any of the tensions and skirmish fighting in the surrounding area. Overall, I see a huge threat to potential inflationary pressure disrupting this upward movement in the long term. Not some sort of pressure that would take us to a surge in inflation back to 9% like we were, but certainly not allowing us to reach a 2% target rate and having some minor upward movement instead of continuing the downtrend we have seen over the last year. Overall, my sentiment is fairly neutral. While I had held a bullish sentiment with spots of bearish profit taking before, I see overall a neutral movement from here, as my estimate for our top over this year was to be 5000 and we've almost reached that already.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
BTC VS NDX. FOLLOWING THE BEARISH SCENARIOPreviously in the Series.. 👉 Launch of BTC futures on December 18, 2017 Bitcoin is down more than 10 percent in a week and crashed 80+ percent in a year. 👉 Launch of trading on Coinbase IPO NASDAQ:COIN on April 14, 2021 Bitcoin is down more than 10 percent for the week and crashed 50+ percent for the quarter. 👉 Launch of AMEX:BITO - the first fund based on BTC futures, on October 19, 2021 Bitcoin is down more than 10 percent in a week and crashed 80+ percent in a year. 👉 Launch of ̶G̶i̶p̶s̶y̶ ̶C̶a̶m̶p̶ 11 ETFs on BTC, incl. on BTC spot, on January 11, 2024. Bitcoin has slumped by more than 10 percent in a week and further losing its shores. The main technical graph is a ratio between Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD and NASDAQ:NDX Nasdaq-100 Index. Indeed, BTC underperforms against NDX, almost for a 3 years in a row.. But blind faith is ineradicable.. Who knows, what BTC halving has to say.. The truth is One and Only - just trend is your real friend ! 😄
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Pandorra
👋 Alphabet Inc (Google) — Bear Trap EscapeAmerican company Alphabet Inc. two days before has published a quartrely statement and announced an increase in net profit and revenue in the second quarter ended in June. In addition, the company said its chief financial officer, Ruth Porat, will take over as president and chief investment officer of Alphabet and Google from September 1, 2023. At the same time, Porat will temporarily remain as CFO of Alphabet and Google until her successor is found. The company reported net income of $18.4 billion, or $1.44 per share, compared to $16 billion, or $1.21 per share, a year earlier. Revenue, meanwhile, rose from $69.7 billion a year earlier to $74.6 billion, also above the market's forecast of $62.06 billion. Cloud revenue was up 28% year-over-year. Comments by Sundar Pichai, CEO of Alphabet and Google: “Our products and company performed well this quarter. Our continued leadership in artificial intelligence and our excellence in engineering and innovation are driving the next evolution of Search and improving all of our services. With 15 products serving half a billion people each, and 6 of them serving more than two billion people, we have a lot of opportunities.” Comments by Ruth Porat, Chief Financial Officer of Alphabet and Google: “Our financial results reflect continued resilience in search with accelerating revenue growth in both search and YouTube, as well as momentum in the cloud. We continue to invest for growth while prioritizing our efforts to long-term reorganize our company-wide cost base and build the capacity to deliver sustainable value over the long term.” As announced on April 20, 2023, the Company has merged part of Google Research (the Brain team) and DeepMind to significantly accelerate advances in artificial intelligence (AI). A group called Google DeepMind is reflected in Alphabet's unallocated corporate expenses starting in the second quarter of 2023. Shares of Google rose more than 6 percent in premarket trading on Wednesday, with a lot of room for further gains. Technical pictures indicates that major breakout of $125 resistance is happening right now, hitching the price above the neckline in reversed Head and Shoulders chart pattern structure.
NASDAQ:GOOG
by Pandorra
2
SPY SHORT ( UPDATE FROM JAN 24,2024 )**Hello all, Im here to add some insights to the trading view community. I run options and stock programs out of trading view which give intraday bull and bear probabilities and support and resistance levels based on options chain data Looking at SPY, I see a Support level at 485 and the open interest difference between calls and puts are the highest there ( over 5000 ). Resistance at 487 and 488. Im looking to enter a short now with 490 SL. Target is sub 480 if bears push it over Based on my program which does seasonal analysis, SPY is bearish for the next 10 days. Feb month is where the big bear comes seasonally. Ai forecast also looks bearish. Not a place to go long. We Trade algo is applied on the chart** We posted the above idea initially on the 24th of january when SPY was close to 489 but the idea got hidden. The short/ put trade we entered at 488 level paid 80% and closed at 485 level. Watching for another short opportunity. Out of all longs for now
AMEX:SPYShort
by tradesenigma454
New Highs should make things clearer, but not Easier!It's been a while since I updated followers on the SP/ES. I recently moved my daughter to Spain after graduating from college...so my wife and I are really just getting used to an empty house. Nonetheless, let's get into it. First and foremost, the primary circle B wave will be taken off the chart, and that clears things up for us. Why does it clear things up? New Highs leaves up with no current down side set ups...so essentially we should get continuation higher in a completion of our Ending Diagonal. I want address a question several followers had previously asked and in doing so, should aid me in my communicating my forecast. Question: Why isn't this pattern off the October 2022 lows a leading diagonal in wave 1, versus wave 5 like you're counting it? Because this pattern overlapped as indicated on the chart it cannot be counted as an impulsive pattern. Sure price has moved higher and we're now at new all time highs. I am counting it as a motive wave, but as an Ending Diagonal. The argument seems academic at this point because price has retraced all the declines from January 2022. I continue to think there is merit in classifying the pattern correctly...but only the decline will prove me right or wrong. Additionally, some have argued with me for a year or more, that this move off the October 2022 could be a leading diagonal. I have shared my views on leading diagonals quite extensively. Many may disagree. I don't believe leading diagonals are a pattern. I will spare you the context again...but if you are interested, I suggest researching LD's. You'll find that the Elliott Wave community at large is wishy-washy on the subject. Nonetheless, if my analysis is correct and we are completing an ending diagonal, or about to, the price reversal will be swift. As of today, I am torn with this being the a-wave of a 3 wave 5 of V of (III) or all of 5. With so many of the key stocks I track that make up a large percentage of the index in their respective wave 5's. I think we'll find out soon enough.
SP:SPX
by maikisch
1
Trends heading into a conflict area; Other factors in reviewSo I chose to cash out my trade at 4760 for about $2250. Trends have a huge case to send us lower, especially if the 6hour keeps signaling lower. All the trends between 30m and 4hr are ALL in a lower low downtrend at the moment. The trends are as follows; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract) 30m - 4778 Downtrend (1/17/2024) Lower Low 1Hr - 4761 Downtrend (1/17/2024) Lower Low 2Hr - 4790 Downtrend (1/11/2024) Lower Low 3Hr - 4790 Downtrend (1/11/2024) Lower Low 4Hr - 4777 Downtrend (1/8/2024) Lower Low 6Hr - 4797 Uptrend (1/8/2024) Higher High 12Hr - 4762 Downtrend (1/3/2024) Higher Low Daily - 4378 Uptrend (11/3/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High **Note - The 1hr was signaling during the video, it did solidify since so I included the updated in this brief. That will put the 30m to 6hr downtrends against the 12hr violated uptrend, and pending daily higher low uptrend as well once it signals. As I explain in the video, I see the potential of a conflict zone here, and given my significant profit for the month already, I will likely look elsewhere for additional trades for the moment. Other things to look at- Earnings; We are in Earnings season. Mostly banks this week. They have been mixed overall. Next week is a much bigger week with Microsoft, Netflix, Tesla, and more reporting. To note, there has not been a negative earnings season overall yet recently, even during the bear market of 2022 into 2023. Economic Data; Fed Waller spoke about small and few rate cuts, that the market is overly optimistic in the view of how many cuts they expect, and the retail sales data today supports the FOMC ability to choose not to cut rates until they feel very confident inflation is down and will stay that way. Geopolitical; Tension in the Middle East continues to rise, so I'd keep having an eye on that. If oil prices surge (they haven't, in spite of attempts by OPEC to make them and general sentiment they will) that will bleed back into inflationary pressure. My overall sentiment; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/slight bullish Long Term - Bullish My ZM contracts were stopped out today unfortunately, as I picked up December contracts that didn't nearly pop up like the other ZM contracts of 2024, so I am on the hunt for other potential investments for the moment. Many of those are currency exchanges such as 6J, 6A, and potentially the 6E again if it drops a bit more. Safe trading, and remember your risk management.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
🦘🦘 Aussie Kangaroo Returns Home In The OutbackThe Australian dollar has been taking a bath. It’s gone from buying 71 US cents at the beginning of the year to netting you just 63.3 US cents against the benchmark greenback. The dollar is down over the last year against most currencies, and down over the past few weeks against almost every currency. The humble Aussie dollar is suffering in particular against European currencies: Pound Sterling, the Swiss Franc and the Euro. However, even in Japan where the AUD is up over the year so far, it is down in recent weeks. What’s going on? The answer is two-fold. 👉 America’s economy is stronger than expected. And China is weaker, so Chinese yuan has little to no chance of dethroning the US dollar, even as global de-dollarization happens. 👉 Australia gets hit on both of those trades. Difference between 10-Year United States and Australian Govt Debt becomes lower Technical graph for FX:AUDUSD indicates that Aussie has a lot down to deliver.
by Pandorra
2
S&P500 Buy and Sell trading plan.The S&P500 (SPX) index has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the December 07 low and is currently on the 3rd Bullish Leg towards the top (Higher Highs trend-line). The basic Support is the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) which has (nearly) held twice this month, with the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) right below being the separator between a medium-term bullish and bearish trend. We expect a maximum Leg growth of 5.56% like the one that topped on December 27, so we are buying towards 4900 or until the 4H MACD makes a Bearish Cross (standard peak/ sell signal within the Channel Up), in which case we will sell and target the Channel's bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) at 4800 (-2.80% decline like January 05), or close earlier if the 4H MA200 gets hit. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TradingShot
Bear Market Bottoms ExaminedSo many bulls and bears are stating their cases on social media as to whether or not a bottom is in so I thought I'd take some time today to examine what a daily bottoming process looks like using SPX. Standard & Poor's 500 was created in 1957 and since then it has gone through 9 bear markets (Defined as a GREATER THAN 20% decline on a CLOSING basis). 2022 will make 10 but at this point we do not know whether or not we have a bottom in place until we can break above the all time high of 4818.62 As you can see from the below charts, with the exception of Oct 1987; all the bottoms have large & steady "thrusts" IMMEDIATELY after the lows were made that held the following re-tracements IMMEDIATELY: .382 - 67% (6 out 9 bottoms- 2009, 2002, 1982, 1974,1966, 1962) .50 - 11% (1 out 9 bottoms-2020) .618 - 11% (1 out 9 bottoms- 1970) < .618 - 11% (1 out 9 bottoms-1987) Our current bottom could NOT hold the .618 immediately after the low was made therefore it falls into the category of the 1987 exception/rare case. The strongest bull cases show a thrust and then hold of a .382 re-tracement. I'm using a very basic bar chart with black bars to cut down the noise of everything, inserting a Fib Re-tracement, drawing the immediate thrust and adding the number of trading days it took to get above the last lower high. June 1962 (Approx decline: 27%) Oct 1966 (Approx decline: 22%) May 1970 (Approx decline: 33%) Oct 1974 (Approx decline: 48%) Aug 1982 (Approx decline: 27%) Oct 1987 (Approx decline: 33%) Oct 2002 (Approx decline: 47%) March 2009 (Approx decline: 56%) March 2020 (Approx decline: 32%) After looking over all these bottoms I must say the bears do present a strong case that the bottom is not yet in place. IMO, the only similar chart from a bulls perspective is the May 1970 case as it does resemble the "look" of our current bottom however look at how long it took to get above the last lower high. I hope you enjoyed this post...at a minimum it gives me one post that goes back in time to look at the daily charts of all 9 SPX bear market bottoms to analyze the look and feel of a bear market bottom since they happen so infrequently!
SP:SPX
by Vixtine
86
S&P500: Last rally before correction.S&P500 may be overbought on the 4H timeframe (RSI = 72.835, MACD = 15.590, ADX = 49.520) but not yet on the 1D technical outlook as the price hasn't yet made a HH on the two month Channel Up. The 4H RSI does show us though that it is starting that HH peak sequence as it can start a LH trendline like December 14th. We are expecting this wave to peak on a +5.55% rise at 4,920 like the Higher High of December 27th, where we will short and target the 0.5 Fibonacci level and 4H MA200 (TP = 4,800) like the index did on the January 5th HL. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500
by InvestingScope
Chinese equities falling, VIX skyrocketing, and rally stallingOvernight, multiple Chinese stock markets established new lows, setting the negative tone for the European trading session and futures markets in the United States, with all major U.S. indices diving into the negative territory ahead of the regular trading hours. So far, the SPX has failed to get through the psychological resistance of $4,800 and establish new highs. At the same time, other indices like the Nasdaq 100, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Russell 2000 have been moving sideways since late December 2023. It is becoming increasingly apparent that the market’s bullish momentum continues to stall, which follows a period of extremely low VIX and cheap protection to the downside (two things that often precede a downturn in the market). As a result, we are closely monitoring an opening gap in the VIX; if the gap is not closed and the VIX continues to grow, it will strongly bolster the bearish case. The same applies to the decline in MACD, Stochastic, and RSI (plus its failure to break through 70 points) on the daily graph. In addition to that, there are signs of a double-top forming on the daily and weekly chart (not validated yet, though). Therefore, we continue to approach the market with heightened caution. Illustration 1.01 The image shows three major Chinese stock market indices: the Hang Seng Index, the CSI 300 Index, and the Shanghai Composite Index. The Hang Seng Index has continuously declined since early 2018, while the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 have declined since early 2021; the performance is measured from the all-time highs until the latest market close. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 portrays the daily chart of VIX. The yellow arrow indicates the opening gap in the VIX, a notable event, given its increase of more than 10% from the previous close. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 shows the daily and weekly chart of the SPX. Yellow arrows indicate two peaks, which could potentially evolve into a double-top formation. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Neutral (turning slightly bearish) Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
3
Trends to finish this week and into next weekStill sitting short at 4805, at the time of recording I was slightly in the negative, but since we have pulled back down as expected and I'm in a profit zone. The trends are well explained in the video, but most important takeaway is that a new 4hr downtrend coming in below 4808 will signal a lower low, as will a 6hr downtrend coming in below 4759. These two movements would open us up, in accordance with trends, to further movement down. Trends are as follows; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract) 30m - 4817 Uptrend (1/12/2024) Higher High 1Hr - 4807 Downtrend (1/11/2024) Higher Low 2Hr - 4790 Downtrend (1/11/2024) Lower Low 3Hr - 4790 Downtrend (1/11/2024) Lower Low 4Hr - 4770 Uptrend (1/8/2024) Lower High 6Hr - 4797 Uptrend (1/8/2024) Higher High 12Hr - 4762 Downtrend (1/3/2024) Higher Low Daily - 4378 Uptrend (11/3/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High Economic Data; PPI is today, I don't see it have a major weight into the market though as we had CPI, which weighs more heavily, yesterday. Geopolitical; US and British forces hit Houthi targets, furthering tensions in the Middle East. This is why Oil has rocketed up 4% thus far on the day. The higher oil goes, the more that price could bleed into inflation, and also the tension could cause some concern for supply-chain issues. Side Note; I did go Long on two ZMZ24 (Soybean Meal for December maturity) contracts yesterday at 360. I plan to hold until around 370 and evaluate further to see if they will reach the 'predicted' target of 401. I do not trade Soybean products often, it is more of a oversold historically position than a knowledge of how Soybeans work. My sentiment going forward in the ES Futures Market is; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Bearish/Neutral Long Term - Bullish Safe trading, and as always, remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
1/12 Trading Plan - Friday Recap📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral Market sentiment for CME_MINI:ESH2024 is influenced by various factors, including geopolitical tensions, upcoming major elections, economic growth forecasts, market performance predictions, inflation and job market concerns, and oil price movements. 🌍 Global Financial and Economic News: Geopolitical Tensions and Elections: Ongoing conflicts and upcoming major elections in countries like the US, India, EU, and UK are closely watched for their potential impact on global markets. Economic Growth Forecasts: Morgan Stanley predicts a global growth slowdown, with Europe facing minimal growth due to energy supply shocks. Market Performance and Predictions: Varied predictions for major indices like the S&P 500 and the FTSE 100 indicate a mixed market outlook. Inflation and Job Market Concerns: The strong U.S. job market might sustain inflationary pressures, impacting Federal Reserve's rate decisions. Oil Prices and Market Movements: Rising oil prices due to geopolitical risks and mixed performance in stock markets are key factors affecting market dynamics. 📉 Support Levels to Watch: Key support levels include 4808, 4802, 4787, among others. These levels will be critical in determining potential buying points in the market. 📈 Resistance Levels to Watch: Major resistance levels are identified at 4813, 4821, 4832-34. These levels represent potential barriers where selling pressure might increase. 📅 Trading Plan for Thursday: Bull Case: The focus is on maintaining key support levels, particularly 4777 and 4802, to drive upward momentum and target levels like 4845 and 4860-68. Bear Case: The bearish scenario hinges on the failure of support levels, with 4777 as a critical point. Breakdown trades should be approached with caution and skill. Strategy: The plan emphasizes flexibility and responsiveness to market conditions, with an eye on consolidation patterns and potential breakout or breakdown scenarios. Key is to adapt to real-time market dynamics around support and resistance levels. 🛑 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Market conditions are dynamic and subject to rapid changes. Consultation with a professional financial advisor is recommended before making trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
Reacceleration of inflation presents a trouble for the FEDYesterday, the market became slightly spooked by the release of higher-than-expected inflation numbers in the United States. The immediate reaction of the SPX to the news was negative, with the index erasing its early gains; the same price action could be observed in the Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones Industrial Average. Nevertheless, market indices recovered much of their losses by the close and have been trending sideways. The reacceleration of inflation in the United States represents a hurdle for the FED in its quest to tame inflation (likely causing it not to cut interest rates at the next meeting at the end of January 2024 or in March 2024). In addition to that, it could shatter the investors’ expectations of premature rate cuts if no significant improvement is seen in the next print. In turn, that could negatively affect the stock market down the road. In regard to technicals, the resistance at $4,800 continues to play a crucial role; if the price manages to break above it and close there (ideally for at least two consecutive days), it will be very positive. The resumption of growth in RSI, MACD, and Stochastic on the daily chart will also bolster a bullish case. However, the flattening of these indicators and a failure of the RSI to break above 70 points will be slightly concerning. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the 5-minute graph of the SPX. The yellow arrow indicates the moment when inflation numbers were released in the United States. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Neutral Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
8
S&P500: On the hunt for an all-time high 🏹The S&P is currently pushing back towards a new all-time high in small steps. In the yellow sub-structure of the superordinate wave (i) in turquoise, we see the index continuing to rise. If the top could then be formed in this movement, we expect a wave (ii) correction. On the other hand, a different count would prevail if the price slips below the support at 4548 points, which we consider 38% likely. At present, we still lack the momentum on the upside to make this alternative irrelevant.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by MarketIntel