Possible SHORT TradeI anticipate that the price will test the resistance zone between $6,012.50 and $6,028. If the price fails to break through this level, it is likely to reverse and decline towards the support level at $6,000.
Es1
Holiday Trading Plan Nov 28th & 29thNOTE: This trade plan is for the next two days. Both Thursday and Friday are half days for futures closing at 1pm EST. The NYSE is closed tomorrow, but open for a half day Friday. Volatility and volume will be very light and setups will be limited. The below levels are also for two sessions, which means they may be less precise than usual as I am basically averaging two days. I will post any real-time revisions and updates in private group as the day goes on.
Plan for Thursday and Friday’s Sessions
Supports:
• Major: 6009, 5993-89, 5963, 5952, 5933, 5921, 5908, 5878-5880, 5850-55, 5837, 5818-22, 5802, 5773, 5757-59.
• Minor: 6002, 5998, 5981, 5972, 5967, 5957, 5942, 5928, 5902, 5892, 5885, 5869, 5864, 5842, 5828, 5812, 5806, 5790, 5782, 5766.
Resistances:
• Major: 6025-28, 6045-50, 6069, 6089, 6112, 6121, 6134, 6152, 6185, 6195, 6214, 6232, 6245, 6263, 6271-76.
• Minor: 6017, 6033, 6039, 6055, 6062, 6076, 6082, 6095, 6117, 6142, 6163, 6171, 6200, 6208, 6225, 6238, 6256.
Context and Strategy:
The market remains in a large consolidation base between 5993-89 and 6045-50, with numerous key levels within this congested range (6009, 6025). I am still holding my 10% long runner from the ~6002 add this afternoon.
With the next two sessions being holiday trading days, do not over-trade. These sessions will likely have low volume, low liquidity, and a higher failure rate for setups due to the absence of substantial institutional participation.
Most holiday sessions tend to drift higher, but this is not guaranteed. Friday morning could see some better moves, but my bias is to avoid entries until Monday and let my runner continue working.
Key Levels to Watch:
1. 6009 (Major Support): This is the first downside test, but it has been heavily worked already. Unlikely to provide a strong setup without fresh demand.
2. 5993-89 (Critical Support): A retest here provides a safer long opportunity if bulls defend this level again. Look for a possible Failed Breakdown at this level to confirm demand remains intact.
3. 6025-28 (Major Resistance): This area remains a key upside test. Reaction here could determine whether bulls can push higher or if the range tightens further.
Scenarios for Thursday and Friday:
Bull Case:
1. Hold 5993-89: As long as bulls defend this zone, the range remains intact, and ES can build structure for another push higher. This could look like a test of 6025-28, a minor dip, and then a re-test of 6045-50.
2. Breakout Above 6045-50: If bulls clear this resistance, the next targets are 6069, then 6089. Further upside could extend toward 6112 and beyond.
3. Ultra Bullish Scenario: ES skips further downside tests entirely, flagging above 6009 and pushing directly to test 6025-28. A breakout here sets the stage for continuation toward the highs.
** I’d normally give a spot to add on strength but we have two holiday sessions ahead so this is impossible to do without seeing the action real-time.
Bear Case:
1. Breakdown Below 5993-89: For a short setup, patience is critical. The ideal entry comes after:
• A final bounce attempt at 5993-89, or
• A failed breakdown of today’s low that fizzles out, ensuring the demand from this level has been exhausted.
Enter short only after sellers flush below the structure’s lows (e.g., 5986 or higher), confirming that demand has been taken off the table. This reduces the risk of being trapped by a reversal. Refer to Edu Section for example.
2. Targets on Breakdown: If 5993-89 fails and momentum builds, watch for a test of 5963, 5952, or even a failed breakdown recovery around 5972. Be cautious as breakdown trades are low win-rate setups and prone to trapping shorts unless confirmed.
Summary for Thursday and Friday:
• Bullish Lean: As long as 5993-89 holds, the market remains in consolidation. This favors a move toward 6025-28, followed by an eventual breakout to 6069, 6089, and higher.
• Bearish Risks: A loss of 5993-89 could trigger a deeper sell-off to 5963, 5952, or beyond. Short setups require patience and confirmation of seller strength.
Holiday trading requires extra caution. Avoid chasing moves, focus on high-probability setups, and let price confirm structure before taking trades. Remember: Low liquidity can lead to erratic moves. Stay disciplined and prioritize capital preservation.
ES Morning update Nov27thThe steady climb persists in ES. As posted yesterday breakout above 6002 would push us higher with 6027, 6036, and 6046 as targets. We hit 6046 exactly.
As of now: 6026=support (already tested once). Holds keep 6038, 6044 in play. Breakout potential to 6073 above. If 6026 fails, watch for dips to 6017, then 6002.
S&P potential long when new york market opensas the bullish daily bias show us, we can see some liq to the downside that could be taken . after that we could react at the 70-80 % fib level , which is as well at the 1h Order Block . that would give us nice confirmation and we could take a trade if we get a good setup to that, the main thing is that we are bullish and that we want to get higher. but unfortunately everything can happen and we are not forcing trades. Risk 1-3 %
Do bulls really want to be long the S&P 500 ahead of a breakout?S&P 500 future are tantalisingly close to a record high. So close in fact, it would be rude not to print one. Yet I am skeptical it will simply hold on to (and extend) any such gains without at least a shakeout first, and bulls may be better to wait for a dip. Comparing the S&P 500 to Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 futures, I explain why.
MS.
S&P500 Don't expect the rally to stop now.Our last S&P500 (SPX) analysis (November 18, see chart below) gave us the ideal buy entry on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, with the price immediately responding with a rebound:
The rebound took place on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and we are now even past the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). Despite the strong uptrend, this rally is far from over technically, as not only is the 4H RSI below the (70.00) overbought barrier where it has given the first bearish signs near the two previous Higher Highs, but also significantly lower than the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the September 06 Channel Up.
As a result we expect a continuation of the current Bullish Leg. The previous one peaked on the 1.786 Fibonacci extension, so our Target is now just below it at 6150.
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Es Morning Update Nov 26thThis week has revolved around one key level: 5988, the new money magnet. Yesterday, it held as support, sparking a 30-point rally before we got a flush. However, a failed breakdown reclaimed the level overnight.
As of now: Watch for 6026 next, with 6038 beyond. Supports are 6009 (weak) and 5988-93.
SPX to new ATH till next CPIThe correction is over and now SPX is looking at new ATH till Dec 11. Invalidated if breaks below the green line.
Es/SPX Morning Update Nov25thBuyers let patience pay off. Last week (and the week before) had formed a 2-week bull flag with 5980 resistance. Mentioned that if 6002 clears if could give us momentum to 6017. Buyers gapped up over night and now we are sitting exact at 6017.
As of now: Let runners ride if you have them. 6009 (weak) and 6002 are supports. Holding above keeps 6027-32, 6046+ in play. A failure at 6002 could lead to a gap fill lower.
Weekly Forex Forecast Nov. 25th: SP500, NAS, DOW = BUY THEM!The three indices are bullish. They each had a Daily +FVG they found support in, and were bullish from that point of contact. The DOW is the strongest, and may be the best bet, even though it is a wildcard most times. The SP500 is probably the safest buy, as the NASDAQ is the weakest of the three. If things turn bearish for any reason, the best short will be in the NASDAQ.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Full Game Plan for Monday Nov 25thPlan for Monday’s Session
Supports:
• Major: 5972, 5945, 5933, 5908, 5899, 5884-5882, 5869, 5855, 5845, 5828, 5818, 5802, 5782, 5760, 5752, 5731, 5709-11, 5691, 5683.
• Minor: 5980, 5967, 5961, 5957, 5948, 5944, 5928, 5922, 5914, 5904, 5893, 5878, 5865, 5850, 5839, 5835, 5812, 5806, 5793, 5777, 5740, 5721, 5702, 5695.
Resistances:
• Major: 5988, 6002, 6017, 6027, 6032, 6050, 6070, 6082, 6093, 6111-13, 6132, 6138, 6172, 6189.
• Minor: 5993, 5998, 6009, 6023, 6038, 6046, 6056, 6062, 6075, 6101, 6117, 6146, 6156, 6165, 6178.
**Context and Strategy:**
ES is coming off a strong Friday close at 5988, right at a key resistance zone. Price action remains in a clear uptrend, but with no major pullbacks or basing structure formed, actionable setups for Monday will require patience. Those who have been here should know what I'm going to say. My absolute least favorite time to trade is days after trend leg. My job is to get in before these big moves. After they play out, my job is done, and I just need to sit and wait for the next setup to appear. This requires one of two things 1) A sharp pullback or 2) Structure (basing to form). If we just keep trending up, there is nothing for me other than holding my runners and letting them do the work. Patients will be verified on Monday.
**Key Levels for Monday:**
1. First Support at 5972: A dip and recovery here could provide a solid base for continuation higher.
2. Major Support at 5945: If 5972 fails, 5945 becomes the next key level. This area has been well-tested and could provide a reaction or bounce, but the cleanest trade would come from a failed breakdown here.
3. Resistance at 6002: A breakout above this level opens the door for higher targets, including 6017 and 6027.
**Bull Case for Monday:**
• Hold Above 5972: Bulls maintain control as long as price holds 5972. A flag or consolidation at this level would create a strong base for a push higher.
• Breakout Through 6002: Reclaiming 6002 and holding above it could fuel momentum toward 6017 and 6027.
• Structure Above 5988: Building a base above 5988 and below 6002 creates a launchpad for further upside.
**Bear Case for Monday:**
• Breakdown Below 5972: A failure at 5972 would likely lead to a test of 5945. I’d need to see a good bounce attempt here and/or failed breakdown (something like test 5967 then recover 72). After this, I’d short below wherever the lows are (probably something like 5964).
• Failed Breakdown at 5945: As always, breakdown trades carry higher risk. Same drill at a 5972 short...A dip below 5945 that recovers quickly could signal a trap for shorts. Wait for confirmation (e.g., a bounce that pays out buyers and then a loss of the lows) before entering.
• Exhaustion at Resistance: Bears can also look for sell reactions at key resistances (6002, 6017) to test lower supports. I never short resistances. Win rate is too low for my liking
**Summary for Monday:**
• Bullish Lean: As long as 5972 holds, the short-term trend remains intact. Watch for opportunities to break out above 6002, targeting 6017 and 6027.
• Bearish Lean: Bears need to break below 5972 or 5945 to regain control and push the market lower toward 5933 and 5908. Failed breakdown setups, however, remain the safer option for entering long positions.
Reminder:
Patience is critical. It’s safer to wait for failed breakdown setups than longing after direct tests, especially at key supports, and confirm with volume before entering long positions if you want to be super precise. Avoid chasing momentum and let the market come to you.
Es Morning UpdateYesterday (as mentioned in the plan sent out Wednesday’s), I was anticipating a rally to 5993, the flag resistance from the November high in #ES_F. After an 80-point move, buyers got to 5986 and sold off.
As of now: 5961 and 5954 are key supports. Holding above keeps 5972 and 5980 in play. Consolidation here could set up 5998+. If 5954 fails, expect a dip to 5942, then 5917. Protect capital.
Bulls And Bears zone for 11-21-2024On a daily chart, which gap is going to be filled in S&P 500 first. One on down side or upside.
Level to watch: 5966 ---5964
Report to watch:
US Existing Home Sales 10:00 AM ET
ES morning update Nov 21This week has revolved around one key levels: 5886, the “money magnet.” Bulls dominate above it, bears take over below. Late yesterday, I was anticipating a rally to 5908, 5922, and 5942+, and we hit those levels and more.
As of now: 5942 is weak support. Holding above keeps 5960 and 5971+ in play. If 5942 fails, expect a dip to 5932, then 5908-11.
S&P500: Bottom formed on the 4H MA200. Target 6,140.The S&P500 is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.959, MACD = 37.160, ADX = 31.912) as it is on a sideways trade forming the new bottom of the Channel Up between the 4H MA50 and 4H MA200. The 1D RSI is on a bullish divergence that was present on both prior bottoms. Both rose by at least +5.30% after. That rise projection from the bottom is our target (TP = 6,140).
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ES/SPX Morning Update Nov 20thYesterday, buyers delivered a textbook setup: a Failed Breakdown at the key 5886 level, which triggering longs. The 5956 target, as outlined, was hit perfectly overnight.
As of now: Let runners ride until the move concludes. Supports are 5943 (weak) and 5928. If we base here, 5963 and 5972+ are the next targets. A failure of 5928 would signal a deeper dip.
ES/SPX Morning Update Nov 19thThe 5886 level remains a money magnet in ES. Yesterday, 5886 served as key support, setting up a relief bounce to the 5934 target. We held 5886 exactly and ran to target. Overnight, it held once again.
As of now: No changes. 5886 (weaker now) supports moves to 5911, 5922, and 5935+. If 5886 fails, selling could begin toward 5862.
The S&P 500 just hit me with a 'deja vous' - gains to follow?Once every so often I look at a chart and instantly get struck by a familiar pattern, which is exactly what happened today with the S&P 500 futures chart. And with asset managers firmly backing the ES1! futures market, I'm not on guard for a bounce form support. Just as long as Nvidia earnings allow.
MS.
ES levels and targets Nov 18thOn Thursday, sellers broke down the base built from Monday to Thursday at 5998, triggering shorts and hitting the 5885 target on Friday. Now, it’s staging its first relief pop before potentially heading lower.
As of now: As long as 5886-88 holds, a relief pop to 5910, 5917, and 5934 is possible. If 5886 fails, look for a dip to 5878, 5871, 5864.
S&P500 INDEX (US500): Your Trading Plan Explained
S&P500 index is testing a recently broken daily horizontal resistance.
With a high probability, it turned into support.
To buy the market with a confirmation, pay attention to a double bottom
pattern on a 4H.
If the price breaks and closes above 5899, it will give us a strong bullish confirmation.
The market will go up at least to 5954 level then.
If the price drops lower and sets a new lower low, the setup will be invalid.
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S&P500 completed a 0.5 Fib correction. Strong buy opportunity.The S&P500 index (SPX) reached on Friday the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, a technical correction that started after the price made a Higher High at the top of the 2-month Channel Up. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been tested (and held) already on the day of the U.S. elections, so now we are technically still on the new Bullish Leg of the pattern.
As you can see, since the April 19 2024 bottom and the start of the even longer Bullish Megaphone pattern, every time a pull-back stopped within the 0.382 - 0.5 Fib range, the index resumed the bullish trend towards the -0.618 Fib extension. The 1D MACD with its Bullish and Bearish Crosses, is also illustrating this symmetry.
As a result, we believe that the current pull-back is over and we are now targeting 6210, which is within to potential -0.618 Fib targets.
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Weekly Forex Forecast Nov. 18 - 22: SP500, NAS, DOW, GOLDThis is the Weekly Forex Forecast for Nov 18 -22nd.
The Big 3 Indexes started to pullback last week from there elections fueled rallies. Patience is required, as we look for confirmations of a market shift from bullish to bearish.
Gold also retraced last week, and may may struggle against a surging USD. Patience here will benefit traders, as we wait until the market tips its hand.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
nasdaq to 20k?!good evening,
---
consider this post somewhat fictional for now, created more for entertainment purposes, but i want you to know that there are some serious data points which i'm going to bring up to build the case that the stock market has found a long term bottom.
---
~our monthly indicator is finally oversold for the first time since 2009 market low and is on the verge of crossing bullish.
~nasdaq is backtesting the monthly ichimoku cloud.
~0.382 cycle wave 4 target hit through a very complex correction .
~the monthly rsi has confirmed a hidden bear.
~the us dollar found a top and is headed down to about 80 bucks over this next year.
~us10y, topped out.
~fed might run out of money if they continue to press the markets.
~fear is at all time high.
~retail short positions are at all time high.
~and i'm buying everything.
---
the cycle w5 target on nasdaq sits at $20,000 and we could be in the early stages of beginning that ascension.
---
ps. take my words with a total grain of salt, as i could be very much dreaming here.
ps2. in my last big nasdaq post, i called the top, but was early by a few months. it also went a bit higher, so if i adjust the target with the current data, we have reached the 4th wave target successfully.
✌
