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US500 ~ Ho Ho Santa Rally or EOY Bah Humbug Bust? (4H)CAPITALCOM:US500 chart mapping/analysis. S&P 500 holding in choppy consolidation after November ripper rally. Trading scenarios into EOY: Bullish reaction to macro economic news = break above ~4610 trading range (yellow dashed) towards ascending trend-line (green) / red box confluence zone. Bullish extension target(s) = re-test ~4820 previous/historical ATH. Bearish reaction to macro economic news = break below ~4524 trading range (yellow dashed) towards ~4450 / 200SMA dynamic support confluence zone. Bearish extension target(s) = Golden Pocket / descending trend-line (white dotted) confluence zone aka "Return to Scene of Crime".
CAPITALCOM:US500
by BlueHatInvestor
S&P500 Sell signal emerged.S&P500 is trading inside a 1 year Channel Up with the price reaching today the 0.786 Fibonacci level, following the Fed rate hike. Following the Bearish Megaphone that initiated November's rally, the can see that the last time such pattern started a rally, it peaked on the 0.786 Fibonacci (Dec 01 2022) before pulling back to the 0.236 level. Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the current market price. Targets: 1. 4500 (MA50 1d). Tips: 1. The MACD (1d) is also printing the same pattern as the December 2022 High. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TradingBrokersView
ES1! Key Levels into EOY 2023ES1! 6WK: Update from April 14, 2023 Publish: 0.786 Levels clear development of structure into EOY. KL: 4741.25 Risk on sentiment as evidenced by confluence of sigma 1 and 0.5 fibonacci level (4155.25) now approached 0.236 fibonacci level (4500). This was a high area of interest as PA reverted to mean because it was where price acceptance has occurred (Oct 2020) and where price acceptance was rejected (Feb 2020)// Regression analysis with pearsons r of .9558// VIX 12.04 Price at time of study 4693.75// KL: 4741.25 Upcoming macro events and earnings guidance will be factored in alongside breadth and yield measures// Bias: Risk On
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by GroundNinja
S&P500 Bullish unless this Support level breaks.The S&P500 index (SPX) is extending the bullish leg of the 16-month Rising Wedge pattern. It doesn't have much room left before it hits the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the pattern and as long as this stays intact, it targets 4730 as an end of year target. As you can see, throughout this pattern, its shorter Rising Wedge patterns that have driven the price upwards on the bullish legs, just like the current. The previous broke to the upside and peaked on the 3.0 Fibonacci extension while the first one failed and when it broke the Support (last Higher Low), it declined to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level below the 1D MA50. As a result, if the Support (4535) fails first, short and target 4370 (0.5 Fibonacci). The 1D MACD is about to complete a Bearish into Bullish Cross pattern, which was favors the bullish scenario. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TradingShot
1
Down only from here on out. $SPY to bottom below $300I've been waiting for this moment for the past two years. Over the next week or so, I expect a high to be put in on the stock market at ~$441-$446, and then the market will be in down only mode for the next 6 months to a year. I don't take joy in seeing the market fall, but from a trading perspective these opportunities only happen once every 10-15 years and there's lots of money that can be made on the downside. Markets fall faster than they rise, and I think the next 6 months will be painful. So sharing this as a warning for those long-only investors (to take some profit or sit in cash) and as an opportunity for those that feel comfortable shorting. What would change my mind is a move above $446 and flipping that level as support. But otherwise, we will move down from here. Everyone expects rates to come down and thinks that will pump up the market, but I have the opposite view. I think rates will fall because they'll need to be cut after a market wide crisis. Technically, we've formed a monthly lower high already and we've been consolidating in a tight range, I think once we retest the highs, we'll confirm this last level as resistance and then the market will fall much faster than the last few months and faster than it did last year. I expect the bottom to be put in sometime between now and October of next year (2024) at $271. I've marked off key levels of support and resistance on the chart. In July I traded the top: But from here on out, I think the bottom drops out of the market. Hence why I'm sharing this now. Key dates on the chart June 17, July 1, Sep 23. Those are all pivot dates on the weekly timeframe where it's an important time to watch for price action. Good luck trading this next year.
AMEX:SPYShort
by benjihyam
33
Wave 3 UpdateHere is out map of Primary wave 2 to this point. It is unclear if Minor 5 and Primary wave 2 are completed. Now that Primary wave 2 retraced all of Primary wave 1's movement and then some, instead of limiting historical datasets to a ratioed range, I am comparing all similar micro waves where wave 2 moved more than wave 1. Elliott wave theory says wave 2 cannot move more than wave 1, my modified theory permits this when it occurs. Wave 1's movement / Wave 2's movement = 0.9957. I compared all data in which this ratio is less than 1 (Wave 2 was larger than wave 1) and the numbers look a little more realistic moving forward. According to the data, Primary wave 3 should bottom above 3754 and less than 4036. The duration will likely last 608-740 trading hours. I still have other models with heavy agreement at a duration around 690-699 hours. Most models have the bottom between 3750-3799, which falls inline with the historical ratioed data. I will use the target of 3775 (drop 834.23 points from Friday's high) in 690 hours for estimating the Intermediate wave endpoints. Preliminary bottom for Intermediate 1 is below 4350 before December 25. Intermediate wave 2 up toward 4500 by January 10. Intermediate wave 3 will be a significant drop over time, current look is 3900 by end of February. Intermediate wave 4 bounces up toward 4100 by mid-March. Current Primary wave 3 and Intermediate wave 5 bottom is around 3775 by early May. Again this is all under the assumption Primary wave 2 is where we are, has completed, or will complete shortly after the open tomorrow. Primary wave 2 cannot realistically sustain too much more upside otherwise my wave placement is well off. More updates to follow.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
6
Weekly Macro S&P 500 AnalysisThe 4270.00 level can contain selling through Q1, above which 4634.50 remains a 3 - 5 week target, 4864.25 likely over the next 3 - 5 months. Upside, 4634.50 can contain weekly buying pressures, while closing above 4634.50 indicates the targeted 4864.25 by the end of February where the market can top out into Q2. Downside, a settlement below 4270.00 signals 4113.50 within 2 - 3 weeks, secondary long- term support able to contain selling into later in 2024 and above which a longer-term bullish dynamic remains in effect over that time horizon.
CME_MINI:ES2!
by SpecialeAnalysis
S&P500: Ascending Triangle trading plan.S&P500 is trading inside an Ascending Triangle pattern with the price over the July 27th Top (R1) and bullish on the 4H technical outlook (RSI = 63.128MACD = 5.390, ADX = 23.122). Until the HH and more importantly the R2 level break, we will be bearish, targeting the S1 (TP = 4,550). Below the S1, the 4H MA200 is the target (TP = 4,480). If the price crosses over the R2 level, be ready for an end of year rally to the January 12th 2022 Top (TP = 4,749.50). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500
by InvestingScope
12/8 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Day Ahead📊 Market Sentiment: Bullish The current market sentiment is bullish, as indicated by various key factors. The closing prices are consistently above the Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) for 9, 21, and 55 periods in both the 4-hour and daily datasets, highlighting a positive trend. Additionally, the market is maintaining levels above key support zones while approaching significant resistance levels. This bullish sentiment is further supported by global market trends, with most markets showing upward movement, robust crude oil prices, and strong yield performances. 🔄 Market Recap November proved to be a bullish month, with the ES rallying over 450 points, demonstrating remarkable resilience. However, since November 20th, ES has been in a consolidation phase, oscillating within a narrow range of 4550-56 to 4575-80. Despite repeated tests of this range, a definitive breakout has yet to materialize. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly up, Japan down a lot 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Mixed 🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Up strongly 🔮 Crypto: Up 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Japanese stocks continue their steep decline fall, the Yen continues to rally as traders expect the Bank of Japan will exit it’s longtime negative rate policy this month. 📷 Snapshot Daily Data Sentiment Analysis EMA 9, 21, 55: Similar to the 4-hour data, the daily data also shows a bullish sentiment with closing prices above the EMAs. Closest Support and Resistance: The closest support level is at 4580, similar to the 4-hour data, and the closest resistance level is at 4632. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis EMA 9, 21, 55: All are indicating a bullish sentiment as the closing prices are above these EMAs. Closest Support and Resistance: The closest support level is at 4580, and the closest resistance level is at 4642. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 🔍 Key Resistance Levels 4755: A significant long-term target connecting August 2022 and July 2023 highs. It's a major magnet/target in the current market context. 4680-4685: Represents a re-test or slight overthrow of the August highs. It's crucial for validating the strength of the bullish trend. 4658: A critical resistance level that was tested on June 20th and July 25th, 2023. Previous failures to sustainably clear this zone led to a correction, making it the first major breakout zone above 4620-4625. 4642-4645: A key zone in the current market structure. 4620-4625: This represents the upper green dotted line in the chart, connecting the January 2022 COVID bull market high with the August 2022 high. This level was a target for some time and is now more likely to be breached due to significant basing. 🔍 Key Support Levels 4573 (and 4580): This zone capped rallies in the last week and a half, with multiple failed attempts to clear it. It's seen as a significant 2-week resistance cluster now turned into support. 4556-4558: A key zone tested multiple times (32 times in the last week), indicating a range of choppy trading between 4556 and 4580. 4540-4542: A multi-month level, it was key resistance in June and July 2023, and following a breakout, it has been acting as support. 4514: An important zone from mid-November. 4497: Serves as major support, back-testing the channel resistance dating back to highs of December 2022 and February 2023. 4450: The immediate backtest point of the line after the CPI announcement on November 14th. 📉 Support Levels 4556 (major), 4548, 4539-42 (major), 4530, 4524, 4520 (major), 4512, 4507, 4496 (major), 4485, 4475, 4463 (major), 4450 (major), 4443, 4436, 4431 (major), 4418, 4414, 4408 (major), 4399, 4389 (major) 📈 Resistance Levels 4565, 4573 (major), 4580 (major), 4590-93 (major), 4597, 4609, 4618-22 (major), 4633, 4640-42 (major), 4648, 4657 (major), 4666, 4680-84 (major), 4693, 4704, 4711 (major), 4722, 4727 (major), 4739-41, 4747, 4755 (major) 📝 Trading Plan Bullish Scenario: If the market sustains above key support levels and breaches resistance levels, especially 4620-4625 and 4658, the bullish breakout trend may continue. Bearish Scenario: A reversal below key supports, particularly below 4556, could indicate weakening of the bullish sentiment, leading to a potential bearish shift. 💡 Wrap Up The market is showing bullish sentiment, but vigilance is key. Monitor resistance and support levels for changes in market dynamics. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
12/7 Trading Plan - Wednesday Recap and Day Ahead📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral The immediate market conditions lack a strong bullish drive, thus leaning towards neutrality in the short term. 🔄 Market Recap November proved to be a bullish month, with the ES rallying over 450 points, demonstrating remarkable resilience. However, since November 20th, ES has been in a consolidation phase, oscillating within a narrow range of 4550-56 to 4575-80. Despite repeated tests of this range, a definitive breakout has yet to materialize. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down slightly 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Mixed 🌏 Major Global Catalysts A ship ran aground in the Suez Canal, blocking one lane of the two-lane section and reducing transits by more than 50%. It’s since been cleared but the situation highlights ongoing difficulties in global shipping. 🔍 Key Structures 4755: A long-term target, connecting the August 2022 and July 2023 highs. 4680: Represents a re-test of the August highs. 4658: Crucial resistance encountered in mid-2023. 4639-42: A pivotal zone. 4618-22: The green dotted line on the chart, marks a significant trendline. 4573 (with 4580 just above): A two-week resistance cluster. 4556: A repeatedly tested support level. 4539-42: A notable horizontal zone, acting as a key resistance in mid-2023. 4520: A significant level from mid-November. 4497: A channel resistance tracing back to late 2022. 4450: The immediate backtest point post-CPI announcement in November. 4430: The bull market trendline from late 2022 to early 2023. 📉 Support Levels 4556 (major), 4548, 4539-42 (major), 4530, 4524, 4520 (major), 4512, 4507, 4496 (major), 4485, 4475, 4463 (major), 4450 (major), 4443, 4436, 4431 (major), 4418, 4414, 4408 (major), 4399, 4389 (major) 📈 Resistance Levels 4565, 4573 (major), 4580 (major), 4590-93 (major), 4597, 4609, 4618-22 (major), 4633, 4640-42 (major), 4648, 4657 (major), 4666, 4680-84 (major), 4693, 4704, 4711 (major), 4722, 4727 (major), 4739-41, 4747, 4755 (major) 📝 Trading Plan Bullish Scenario: Maintain a long position as long as the 4556 support holds. Key supports at 4556 and 4539-42 safeguarding the upward trajectory. Bearish Scenario: Prepare for a bearish shift if support at 4556 or 4542 fails. This scenario would involve breakdown trades below these support levels, with a high risk-reward ratio and the potential for substantial sell-offs. 💡 Wrap Up As long as the support levels at 4556 (with the lowest being 4542-39) are maintained, there's potential for the ES to continue operating within its current range and possibly revisit levels like 4573, 4580, then dip to 4590, followed by another dip, before potentially approaching the vicinity of 4620. If the 4542 level fails, we might see the ES embarking on a downward trajectory, moving from one level to the next. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
12/5 Trading Plan - Tuesday Recap and Day Ahead📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral We remain in consolidation, holding between 4550-55 support and 4575-80 resistance. 🔄 Recap After rallying 460 points from October 27th to November 22nd, ES has been stuck in consolidation for two weeks. The market has been largely stuck between 4550-55 support, and 4575-80 resistance, making the round trip countless times. 📈 The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Near unchanged 🌏 Major Global Catalysts CEOs from the eight largest US banks will testify before the Senate Banking Committee today, voicing their opposition to a rule that would increase capital requirements by 20%-25%. 🔍 Key Structures 4755: A far off target for those with a big picture view 4680: A re-test of the August highs 4658: Important resistance on June 20th and July 25th 2023 4640: A key zone 4618: Green-dotted line in the chart 4573 (with 4580 just a little above): A 2 week resistance cluster 4556: A key zone, tested 25+ times in the last week 4542: A multi-month level, it's been support since Nov 20th 4520: A key zone from Nov 15th-20th 4497: Important channel resistance dating way back to December 2022s and February 2023s highs 4450: Immediate backtest point of the line we lifted off after CPI on Tuesday November 14th 4430: The rising bull market trendline connecting the October 2022 and March 2023 lows 📉 Support Levels 4563, 4556, 4548, 4542, 4540, 4531, 4520, 4513, 4507, 4497, 4484, 4470, 4462, 4450, 4444, 4436, 4430, 4424, 4418, 4413, 4408 📈 Resistance Levels 4573, 4580, 4587, 4590, 4600, 4609, 4618, 4622, 4633, 4640, 4646, 4658, 4666, 4675, 4680, 4693, 4702, 4710, 4720, 4724, 4729, 4737, 4746, 4755 📝 Trading Plan Bullish Scenario: The plan is to remain long as long as 4556 keeps holding. Bearish Scenario: If 4542 fails, we should see a short-term bearish trend takeover. 💡 Wrap Up The market remains in consolidation, with a bullish structure. The focus is on trading the consolidations, with optionality to be exposed during the trend. The plan is to remain long as long as 4556 keeps holding, with a focus on failed breakouts/breakdowns. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) ~ December 4H SwingAMEX:RSP chart analysis/mapping. RSP ETF rally representing S&P market breadth - offering legitimacy to overall market strength & further indication of healthy stock rotation, instead of "Magnificent 7" concentration. Trading scenarios: Continuation rally #1 = ascending trend-line (white) / descending trend-line (light blue) confluence zone. Continuation rally #2 = multiple gap fills / 78.6% confluence zone. Shallow pullback #1 = 61.8% Fib / ascending trend-line (green dashed). Shallow pullback #2 = gap fill / 50% Fib / 200MA confluence zone. Deeper pullback #1 = gap fill / 38.2% Fib confluence zone. Capitulation #1 = descending trend-line (white) / gap fill / ascending trend-line (light blue) / 23.6% Fib confluence zone.
AMEX:RSP
by BlueHatInvestor
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) ~ December 4H SwingAMEX:SPY chart analysis/mapping. Spy ETF strong rally throughout November - is it due for a pullback in December? Trading scenarios: Continuation rally #1 = gap fill / ascending trend-line (white) confluence zone. Shallow pullback #1 = descending trend-line (light blue) / 78.6% Fib confluence zone. Shallow pullback #2 = Golden Pocket / descending trend-line (white) / 200MA confluence zone. Deeper pullback #1 = ascending trend-line (light blue) / 50& Fib / gap fill confluence zone. Capitulation #1 = multiple gap fills / 38.2% Fib confluence zone.
AMEX:SPY
by BlueHatInvestor
ARE WE ARE ABOUT TO WITNESS A TRAIN WRECK FROM THE FRONT ROW?This evening I was watching TV and I get an email alert. The title of email, “Wall Street’s 2024 SP500 forecasts are out, are you positioned?”, … and to my surprise (not really) the future looks bright for the US stock markets next year. I immediately thought to myself…What did I click on to get this garbage? LOL Truthfully, I didn’t think that…I eagerly went to my office to open the email to see what firms were peddling what train wreck of a guess, and to what extent would market participants buy into this publicity stunt. If you’re like me and you’re either directly affiliated with the US markets or just a hit and run reader of online financial news, you probably get emails just like these. Obviously, these emails are click-bait for readers of market news…it worked on me. I practice a form of market analysis called Elliott Wave Theory. To be brief, this form of analysis charts the price action that market participants create each of every time they buy and sell. The buys and sells are obviously based on their positive or negative sentiment within any particular market. The patterns tend to be repeating, and fractal in nature, from the intraday to the very long-term time durations. Based on their repeating nature these patterns can be very accurately forecasted long into the future. This form of analysis does not take into account market and economic news or events. The basis for this theory created by RN Elliott in the 1930’s is that news and external events are not causal with the respect to the pattern and its aftermath. A great example of this would be the last two earnings releases for Nvidia (NVDA) in both the August and November releases. Each release far exceeded analysts’ expectations on both revenue and EPS, but the resulting stock price behavior was to decline 20% and 10% respectively. However, in both cases those types of stock price behaviors could have been forecasted in advance. On November 30 I posted this article,“ Is NVDA Headed to $467 " Later in the trading day, NVDA followed through as forecasted. This was not a function of magic, just EWT analysis and good ole' fashion math. Now for full disclosure, the rally off the October 27th bottom in the markets was not entirely unanticipated I just did not expect to the extent it has rallied and I had deemed that potential alternative pathway showing a rally, low probability . Now, having rallied from late October to last Friday, I would not get too excited about that sort of price action persisting. More on that when I update followers next time. Back to the 2024 SP500 targets. From Bank of America to Goldman Sachs, not one firm is projecting the SP500 to be down next year. In fact, they forecast modest growth in neighborhood of 5% to 10%, with some other firms as high as 20% higher from current levels. The above chart is the SPX cash market from inception. You can see with arrows how I am forecasting the future price action. I have written on this subject matter ad nauseum. Nonetheless, I wonder if these latest SP500 targets from Wall Street firms are elevating market participant expectations, only to set up a pending train wreck. Are we willing participants? Is Dow Theory Dead? Dow Jones Transportation Index Do Small Caps no longer lead? Small Caps Index I'm reminded of this true story. In 1849 the Texas county of McClennan thought it was a good idea to approve an event for the (Missouri, Kansas, Texas Railway) known as KATY for short, railway executive George Crush to market two steam engine trains of his deliberately colliding head on into each other. The event was highly marketed and touted as free to attend. However, to get to the area of the event in rural McClennan county, you had to buy a ticket on one of George Crush’s trains for $3.50. In today’s dollars that fare would be $125. On the day of the event, a whopping 40,000 people lined up to witness the spectacle. Ironically, the sheer total human population in attendance on that day, rivaled the total population of Texas’ largest city at the time. The main event got underway with the two trains chugging towards each other at top speed and collided in spectacular form,…right up until the steam engines of both locomotives exploded, and jettisoned debris in such violent form, that scores of people were injured, and 2 people actually died that day. Between the event promoters, staff, county officials, and each and every soul that made a conscience decision to attend such an event on that day, apparently not one thought, this could be the outcome. In hindsight the result seems both obvious in its destructive and harmful potential, while simultaneously being inexplicable why no one thought it was a bad idea. Are there two metaphorical locomotives running towards each other now in the economic world? Is the CNBC’s of the world, and Wall Street analysts of today with their lofty 2024 SP500 predictions nothing but a bunch of latter-day George Crushs’? Saying its free to attend their publicity stunt, but transport will cost you an arm and a leg. Then you literally have to pay up. Time will tell. Best to all, Chris
SP:SPXShort
by maikisch
6
S&P500: Trading plan towards the end of the yearS&P500 is overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 72.156, MACD = 58.110, ADX = 59.863), a logical outcome considering the aggressive nature of November's rally. This rally is the HL rebound on the bottom of the 1 year Channel Up and is more effectively understood with the help of the Fibonacci levels and ranges. The price has been trading all week inside the 0.382 - 0.236 Fibonacci range, a band that kickstarted pullbacks on December 1st 2022 and February 2nd 2023. Both were accompanied by a 1D MACD Bearish Cross and pulled back below the 1D MA50 and the 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci Support Zone. On the other hand when the June 15th 2023 rally crossed over the 0.236 Fibonacci level, the uptrend extended all the way to the top of the Channel Up. Consequently we will buy if it crosses again over it and target the top (TP = 4,800) and sell if it crosses (and closes the 1D candle) under the 0.382 Fibonacci level and target the 0.618 Fib-1D MA50 band (TP = 4,410). See how our prior idea has worked: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500
by InvestingScope
2
📈 S&P500 - Christmas Rally ⁉️After reanalyzing the S&P 500, I've made significant adjustments as the previous scenario didn't quite align. According to my current assessment, the upcoming weeks and months might unfold as follows: I still believe that a Wave 5 emerged in January 2022. Subsequently, we experienced a Double Zigzag descent to the $3500 level, where Wave A formed with another Zigzag, leading to Wave B around $4600. While it could be Wave 1, I consider this possibility more speculative. I lean towards a potential continuation with a Triangle, specifically a bullish Contracting Triangle. I anticipate Wave E shooting beyond this trendline, initiating a reversal. The robust accumulation phase within this box recently suggests a possible turnaround. Interestingly, Fibonacci levels like 38.2% and 50% happen to align there. Consequently, I view the range between $4200 and $4000 as an extremely compelling buying zone. 📈
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by stromm_by_wmc
🍂Fall – Fell – Fallen. S&P500 Technical Perspectives over Q3'23The US government is well on its way to going into lockdown and shutting down the economy as policymakers are deadlocked over the national budget for the next fiscal year. While leading stock market strategists are not yet terribly concerned about such perspectives, and entertain hopes that investors have a high probability of "getting away with it" with strong performance, in reality the facts tell a different story. S&P500 SP:SPX is suffering losses, and has already lost about half of its annual growth since the beginning of 2023, and the Nasdaq-100 index NASDAQ:NDX reduced 2023 growth approximately by 30 percent. To avoid a shutdown, Congress needs to pass all 12 spending bills for the next fiscal year by Sept. 30, something it has historically done rather poorly. This could create problems for the market, which could immediately, that is, on the same day, be seriously affected by a US Government shutdown, considering SPX seasonality where September is one of the worst calendar month for investments into S&P500. S&P500 Seasonality Chart Meanwhile historical back test analysis says, in the past 20 government shutdowns, the S&P 500 stayed relatively flat, with the benchmark index losing an average 0.4% the week before a shutdown and gaining .1% by the end of a shutdown, according to a Reuters analysis of CFRA Research data. And in some cases, stocks actually ended the shutdown period higher, with the market gaining a net 10% following the 2018-19 shutdown, according to Renaissance Macro. Shutdowns lasting five days or more have also been known to see a quick market rebound, according to a 2021 Dow Jones analysis. On average, the S&P 500 had already moved into positive territory within one month of the shutdown. Shutdowns themselves are also relatively short. The last government shutdown, which was the longest-ever, lasted for 35 days. Anyway everything could happened. To stay away, or look beyond the market's twists and turns in the weeks before, during, and immediately following a potential shutdown - this is could be very, very individual investment decision. Technical pictures illustrates that weekly SMA(52) - 12 months simple moving average near 4150/4200 pp in SP:SPX or Dec'23 Futures CME_MINI:ESZ2023 (depends what are you looking for) could be quite strong support in any cases.
CME_MINI:ESZ2023
by Pandorra
3