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SPY next moveDecember 8 Unemployment Rate December 12 Inflation Rate December 13 Interest Rate & Powell Speech in these days market could start its correction VIX is too low which means market could go higher, why not lower? volatility is too low, everything is good (data) but consider every time vix go below (18-13 range) it start to bounce, this bounce moves vix 30-40 % higher, 10% for spy, one of my calculations for spy correction target comes from vix movement. VIX option data P/C ratio for 15dec for both interest and volume is about 0.5 and puts positions closed for december, calls still open 10-15% correction for spy could lead it to 360 max consider this data *rate hikes will go down in 2024 *late 2024 US election *REIT is not good compare to others I think after this correction market will have ATH(2024), and after that FLASH CRASH
AMEX:SPY
by Arashbas
2
S&P500 Easing the aggression but top isn't in yetThe S&P500 has been rising non-stop since the October 27th Low when the Bearish Megaphone bottomed and the long term Channel Up started the new Higher High leg. The rally crossed over the top of the Bearish Megaphone and has already reached the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the Channel Up. The same sequence can bee seen at the end of last year (September - December), with a Bearish Megaphone bottoming and the subsequent rally topped on the 0.786 Fibonacci level. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the current market price. Targets: 1. 4690 (projected contact with the 0.786 Fibonacci level). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) has turned overbought over 70.00 and turned sideways. Clear indication that the initial aggression of late October is fading and we should see a Bearish Divergence as the index approaches the 0.786 Fibonacci. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingBrokersView
Updated SP500 Analysis. FORECASTS REMAINS UNCHANGEDHas Elliott Wave Lost Its Forecasting Accuracy? I cannot recall the exact setting, but many years ago I was asked this specific question… ” …as the number of practitioners of Elliott Wave Theory grows due to its popularity, won’t more people be trading these wave patterns and in doing so, somehow skew the theory’s efficacy”? It’s a great question. One in which I think requires a more nuanced, rather than simple answer. Forecasting markets using Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) is only as accurate as the practitioner. With respect to EWT, if one could consider being in a renaissance of sorts, I would say, now is that time, because of the increase in practitioners . Since R.N. Elliott’s final published work, Nature's Law –The Secret of the Universe published in June, 1946 several individuals have contributed to the theory in incremental ways. However, this article is not about the history of Elliott Wave theory, but a thought experiment in the continued efficacy of what I would consider to be the only effective and comprehensive analytical tool that describes the price movements of markets. If there is one phrase, I have used over the years to explain short term pattern ambiguity it would be… “Nothing clears up the current price action, like more price action”. Meaning, at times, an objective practitioner of EWT can decipher a pattern in different ways, and what will deem the current pattern, optimal , will be the price action that follows. This is the primary reason I include alternative counts within all my published work. However, I am a purist in the pursuit of arriving at a truth. Using EWT, I find the truth mostly has two potential outcomes, and only the price action that follows will lean more so towards one, rather than the other. That is why I believe that when one shares their work with the public, (like here on Trading View) it should be their own work, and not a concoction of other people’s work posted on the Internet, and peddled as one’s own. As a trader, I think there are no rules that govern the pursuit of profit. As an analyst, I believe when sharing an analytical forecast, it should be the work of the one posting. Explaining how I determine some people are posting analysis that is an aggregation of other public postings is of less importance than remaining on topic in relation to the efficacy of EWT in forecasting. Last year, I was rated the top author on Solana, a crypto currency. I no longer share my analysis on Solana with the public. However, a quick search of current analysis on Solana yields ideas that lack context, or make bold predictions, that I can say are not based on a rules-based forecasting tool like EWT. This is one method I use to discern the analysis is either not their own, or is not worthy of using hard earned money to get behind. Solana, as a chart falls into the category of having one primary analytical thesis, and an alternate for me. Ironically, in this case, they both point higher towards triple digits. I see nothing posted on Solana here that contains the context of why prices have moved higher and where they will go over the very long term. Additionally, there is nothing contained with the Solana chart that tells me new lows are option to be considered. Yet, some with say that is precisely where that crypto currency is headed. I often wonder when substandard analysis is shared with the public does it change the optimal pathway of correct analysis. It's impossible to know for sure. However, it seems reasonable to think that the longer-term targets would not change, but the smaller timeframe sub-divisions might. This may lead to more short term complex patterns, but in the grand scheme of things, the efficacy of EWT I do not think is harmed. Traders who follow EWT analysis may find mixed results. That is why if you follow anyone else's analysis on the Internet, make sure they are providing details, context, the nuance behind what could happen, versus shallow context and a lack of a well thought out thesis. It is possible, you're reading someone's else's work, interpreted and passed off as their own. This leads me to my updated analysis on the SP500. My last post on the SPX futures was on October 28 which was one day after the market bottomed. The purple pathway I deemed low probability. In retrospect, this is precisely what has played out. However, now that price has rallied swiftly higher, I have to consider yet another possibility. The blue count in the chart above. As of this morning, both my primary black, and first alternative count, has the index in a c wave lower towards the lower 3,000 area. Black subdivides more so than purple, but they ultimately arrive in the same area. The blue count requires some explanation and the context to warn followers of this sort of price action will play out. Regardless of my primary, first or second alternate counts, a retrace should begin soon. In the case of black and purple, those retraces turn into impulsive patterns towards my target. However, in the case of the blue second alternative, that retrace will take the form of a 3-wave pattern, but ultimately reconcile higher. This resulting higher price action can be for a new high in primary B, or an even higher high resulting in new all-time highs, as v of 5 of Supercycle wave (III). The interesting aspect of either of those moves higher results in an ending diagonal by virtue of overlap that occurred on October 27th 2023. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MARKET CRASH SCENARIO. Price will return to their point of origination, which in the case of a new primary B wave high, that price originated at 3502 in October of 2022. In the case of new all-time highs for wave (III) in the super cycle degree, that is the Covid-19 bottom at 2191, which occurred in March 2020. Therefore, I'll conclude by saying that we should all expect a retrace lower to start as early as next week. To what extent, will determine the direction of the SP500 into the first half of 2024. Is there a possibility of the index making a new high? Current price action suggests I cannot rule that out...but so far, (Even this very impressive November 2023 rally) leads me to believe anything has occurred to make me change my original forecast of 3200-3300 in the SPX Futures. If we do decide to go up and make new highs...I think for this trader, that may be cause to get flat assets in general and to the degree it makes sense. I'm referring to assets directly AND indirectly associated with the stock market. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
4
S&P500 How high can this rally go?The S&P500 index (SPX) is on a relentless 1-month rally since since the October 27 bottom, having grown already by more than +11%. Since the August 16 2022 High, the index has entered into a long-term Channel Up sequence. The last two breaks below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) have been the Higher Lows and the best medium-term buy entry. The recent (October) one in particular was the first that was on a Higher Lows 1D CCI Bullish Divergence. We can see that all rallies since August 2022 have been around the same range (+19.31% to +20.79%). As a result, we expect another minimum +19.33% (from the October bottom). Along with the (dotted) Channel Up top, which gives us a first Target at 4700, that +19.33% expectation gives a second long-term target at 4900, which would be above the 4820 (Jan 04 2022) All Time High (ATH). The latter Target will also make a perfect Higher Low at the top of the Diverging (dashed) Channel Up and hit the 1.618 Fibonacci extension (as all previous rally did), while the former (Target 1) will price a Higher High on the (dotted) Channel Up. As a result, if the index enters a consolidation for a few days within the orange ellipse pattern (as it did during April 2023 and November 2022), it will give you another opportunity to enter in case you missed the rally from its start. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
S&P500: Channel Up is holding on 4H.The S&P500 maintains its steady uptrend since the October 27th bottom, inside a Channel Up pattern. This (on a projected +7.15% 2nd bullish wave) targets above the R3 July 27th High (TP = 4,650). Being however overbought on the 4H technical outlook (RSI = 70.276, MACD = 22.060, ADX = 31.456), we will be ready to short if the price crosses under the 4H MA50 and target the 4H MA200 (TP = 4,400). See how our prior idea has worked: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
S&P500 The final pull back before Santa's rally!The S&P500 index / US500 has been on the strongest 2 week rise since October 2022, which was at the very start of the Fibonacci Channel Up you see on this chart. The index has established the 1day MA50 as the new long term Support and may test it soon if we expect it follow a similar course as the October-November 2022 rally, which made a short term pull back after rising by +12.20%. That pull back happened after reaching the 0.618 Fibonacci level and declined slightly under the 0.382. Typical technical retrace. It then resumed the rally to complete a +17.30% rise. Buy that pull back as it will most likely be the last before Santa's rally to +17.30%. Target 4800. Note: The price is currently on the same 1day CCI level as October 25th. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TheCryptagon
Market Trending Up, but what about longer trends?Hey everyone! Sorry for being away for a bit, while we did follow my red graph down and I had shorted into some of that, I did not feel comfortable following it back up and went over to trade several 6E contracts instead. Not sure the income difference was much, but it felt like a safer trade following long term valuation of the Euro than hoping stocks regain levels never until the pandemic. Full disclosure, I closed out my 6E contracts towards the end of Tuesday, and am sitting in NO current position right now, so it is easy for me to talk about the market with no skin in the game. That being said, let's dive into things. Here are the trends as we are in the middle of today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ESZ Contract) 30m - 4524 Uptrend (11/16/2023) Higher High 1Hr - 4391 Uptrend (11/10/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 4412 Uptrend (11/10/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4412 Uptrend (11/10/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4424 Uptrend (11/10/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4260 Uptrend (11/1/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4319 Uptrend (11/2/2023) Lower High Daily - 4378 Uptrend (11/3/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4244 Downtrend (10/16/2023) Lower Low On a short term and medium-term basis, things are very much trending upward. Based on the short sentiment in the market, I think we won't push too much higher, and could even run back down to around 4420ish as I think lots of people went short going into Tuesday's CPI data and are going to be holding their positions to try and minimalize their losses if they didn't practice good risk management. I go into a concern on this upward movement in the video, but ultimately I am concerned that we had our first lower low downtrend EVER on a Weekly analysis for trends. I'm not saying that it will take us lower, I am saying it has never happened before. Every downtrend signal we ever had prior has always been a higher low downtrend. As long as we stay above 4462 when the last uptrend signaled (week of June 6, 2023) we are above and looking to signal a higher high uptrend, but anything below that to me shows we could be headed into a sideways or even long term downtrend market for the first time ever. Or... like I said it has never happened so maybe it means nothing, as there is no historical data to look at. My current outlook is; I just plan to sit and watch for potentially the rest of this week and maybe decide Monday on a position, unless I take a short term trade for just over Friday but will likely close out before the weekend. I may even continue to look for other areas of the market to invest in. Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
6
SNP500 & My BIG SHORT - Recession TradeSPX is destined to drop hard, back to 2009 lows. I decided to go short, to catch the next Market Crash. It's the previous Wave 4 of a lesser degree. If you know Elliott Wave as I do, then you are getting ready too. In my opinion SPX500USD has topped a Wave 5 of a large degree. More info on that in my Full Wave Count for that 150y old chart. Here's a picture on that SPX500 / US500 Monthly Chart: Now, what are the main reasons behind my BIG SHORT on US500.F ? 1. The Volatility Index (VIX) is showing a Fractal, the 2007-2009 same/exact sequence. 2. The United States Consumer Confidence Index (USCCI) is telling me that Consumers are entering the Fear Period. 3. The Federal Reserve Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS / FRED) has broken out of an important Downtrend. 4. The US Inflation Rate (USIRYY) is saying that a full-blown war has started. 5. The 10y Treasury Note Yield (TNX) just broke out of a 40y Downtrend. 6. The US 10y Government Bonds (US10 / US10Y / USB10YUSD) finalized a big bearish leg. 7. The Crypto Market Cap (TOTAL) & Bitcoin (BTCUSD) : The Golden King is taking over. I know what you might be thinking: SPXUSD could actually do one last Bullish move, an overshoot in the last of the last 5th, right? In this case, the Wave Count on ES1! could be one step behind, and the Impulse Extension in the 5th of 5th was left out. Yes, that could be a scenario as well, and I will get burnt. However, I do not think that's the case, so I am loading my Shorts on SPX500USD ! I could not help but noticing that SPX500 is doing the same Fractal Sequence it did on the previous 2007-2009 Recession. My Sell Orders & Trading Signals on the SPX Market Crash: * Aggressive Entry: @ Market Price ($3960) * Moderate Entry: @ $4500 with SL @ 4900 * Conservative Entry: @ 4700.0 with SL @ 5400 * Position Trading: Sell Stop @ 3700.0 with SL @ 4800.0 * Targets @ : $3200 / $2750 / $2500 / $2200 / $1800 / $1400 / $1100 * Safety measures: when in the green, moving SL @ BE. Good luck and many pips ahead! Richard, the Wave Jedi.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Lionheart-EWA
9
S&P500 Cup and Handle paid off. Now brace for Xmas rally.The S&P500 index (SPX) fulfilled our previous Cup and Handle (C&H) pattern, as even though it had a week closing below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), it eventually bottomed and has since been on a 3-week rebound that broke above the Handle, turning the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) into a Support again. Perhaps the strongest technical development of the week is the emerging formation of a Bullish Cross on the 1W MACD. Historically those are formed in the middle of strong rallies, even during a Bear Cycle correction (such as on July 18 2022). Even though a 1 week correction similar to the October 31 2022 1W candle is possible, we expect a new All Time High (ATH) at 4900 (Target 2) at least, as every rally since the October 10 2022 market bottom, has completed at least a +20.19% rise. Even on the short-term, we expect a 'Christmas rally' to test the bottom of the ATH Zone at 4700 by the end of December, assuming the 1D MA50 of course supports. Our longer term perspective has the psychological 5000 target in frame as it is slightly below the 1.5 Fibonacci extension from the July 24 High. This projection is made based on that July 24 High itself, which was been on the 1.5 Fib extension from the January 30 High. Are you looking for a 1 week pull-back to buy or you are already on board for a 'Santa rally'? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
2
S&P500: Over July's Channel Down. Big bullish breakout.S&P500 crossed over the Channel Down that started in late July, turned bullish on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.269, MACD = 21.240, ADX = 31.244) and ahead of the U.S. CPI report is targeting the R2 level. If today's 1D candle closes over the top of the Channel Down, aim at the R2 without a pullback (TP = 4,530). If it closes under it, buy after a pullback near the 1D MA50, with the same target. Long term, we are targeting the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 4,690), as this is the technical target of the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, which was validated by the 1D RSI Double Bottom on October 27th. See how our prior idea has worked: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
SP500 Santa RallyIf you check our previous post on the SP500 here you'll see we called the top of the B wave in back in July and since then we've moved down in a leading diagonal to complete wave 1 of C, now we're in the middle of a sharp and fast wave 2 and we believe Friday just gone marked the top of the A wave of this wave 2, we're expecting a pretty quick decline for the B wave followed by a sharp rise to complete wave C of 2 in time for the 'santa rally' but we expect things to start turning sour pretty quickly as the new year approaches and this wave 3 of the larger wave C down will get nasty, very fast. So be sensible if you are looking to go long for the santa rally, don't get caught out with your pants down trying to squeeze every ounce of profit out of this counter trend rally, because when this turns, it's going to turn very quickly and will take no prisoners.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by RAA_Trading
Weekly Update: Fire is MesmerizingAs we continue to subdivide within this larger cycle wave a down targeting the low 3,000 area, we appear to find ourselves in a countertrend b-wave retracement. This area has the potential to carve out potential complex patterns as b-waves and wave 4's are the areas where traders are frustrated from a sentiment standpoint. I do not think we should be prepared for an easy consolidation and additionally, I believe we could be for a while. Within this area price should behave within a range. It would not be uncommon to experience irregular corrective patterns that slightly exceed previous highs or lows. As a Pattern Analyst I have no mechanism to forecast these sub-divisions. My main reason I believe we stay contained within a range is based entirely on 2 aspects of data. (1) we have retraced much higher than in standard form, and (2) The IWM just completed it's b-wave triangle, and if recent history is any guide when comparing small caps to large caps is there appears to be 1-3 month lag in the broader markets. See my small cap analysis here . Nonetheless, what comes next is a c-wave. If you have followed me for a while, you'll know a c-wave down feels like a crash. I'm not saying the stock markets are about to crash...I'm simply saying that soon if you find yourself saying out loud, "This feels like the stock market is crashing" ...that's how you know you're in a c-wave. Are the bulls playing with fire here? My mom always told me that fire is mesmerizing, but don't you dare touch it. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
3