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Weekly Update: Do Small Caps Still Lead the Broader Markets?We've all heard that the small capitalized publicly traded companies lead the larger cap companies, more so featured in the broader indices. A quick look back shows the Small Caps Topped in November 2021, whereas the Nasdaq and SP500 did not top till January 2022. Subsequently, the IWM bottomed in June of 2022, and it took the NDX and SPX till October of 2022 to form a bottom. So it appears we do not have to go back too far to see this phenomenon is still valid. If this price action of leading the broader markets continues to persist, then the IWM is now poised to literally "Drop like Rock". A quick observation shows the small caps are around their lows bouncing slightly for wave 2 in our primary c-wave down. You can read my prior posts on the SPX and NDX indices but it appears if you want to know if the recent bullish feeling rally in the DJIA, NDX and SP500 has sustainable legs...look no further than the IWM. Best to all, Chris
AMEX:IWMShort
by maikisch
S&P500 Total Return Index: Reading Market Between the LinesThe 1st half-year of 2023 is near the end, so the June Triple Witch quarterly expiration on the financial markets just took place the business day before. The S&P500 index ( SP:SPX ) has added 14.44% in net prices since the beginning of 2023 and 15.36% in its total returns ( SP:SPXTR ), back to levels above 4,400 that were not seen in the past 12 months since the second quarter of 2022. Historical backtest analysis indicates that the result achieved by SP:SPX Index year-to-date is the second largest in the last 25 years, second only to the pre-Covid 2019, where the return of the S&P500 index was 19.12% by mid-June (net prices) and 20.30% (total return). This publication proposes to dwell in more detail on the definition and formula for calculating so-called market "Total Return", when measuring the performance of financial markets. As no single idea has been published for the S&P 500 Total Return Index ( SP:SPXTR ) neither on any local version, nor on the International version of the TradingView , to the author's surprise.. So.. Let's be the first 😀 What is Total Return, or "Total Return"? In general, the Total Return is the actual value (or rate) of profit from investments for a certain evaluation period. Total return in certain markets includes various categories: accrued interest (accrued interest in bond markets), capital gains (paper P/L based on the change in the market price of an asset), dividends, as well as other mandatory distributions due to regulation, for a certain period of time. Main conclusions 👉 Total return is the actual return on an investment or basket of investments over a given period of time. 👉 Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions, calculated as a percentage of the amount invested. 👉 Total return has a stronger performance vs. Net prices performance, when the amounts that an investor earns on a security over a certain period (in the form of interest, dividends and distributions) are reinvested back into the purchase of additional securities, making higher investment returns over time, according to the principle of compound interest. 👉 Total return are more important when investing in dividend stocks/value investment assets, which have generally low capital appreciation potential relative to Growth assets. But still often outperform them, following a long-term capital reinvestment strategy. 👉 The total return can be formed by the investor both individually, that is through the purchase of additional securities (for the amounts of received interest, dividends and distributions), as well as through mutual and exchange trade funds (ETFs). Of course, bearing in mind and taking into account significant risks, common to all collective investment schemes. Average annual total return It is important to analyze the average annual total return for different periods. Comparison of returns against a benchmark of the risk-free rate and inflation shows how efficient or inefficient the issuer of the security has been vs risk-free investments (for example, banking deposits). When analyzing the average annual total return, it is also important to remember: 👉 Even small discrepancies in the average annual returns on Net prices and Total return prices over time will significantly affect the overall result. 👉 The influence of commissions and exchange fees is also large, despite the fact that they often look like a small amount of a few tenths or hundredths of a percent. Examples and General Meaning of Net Price Returns and "Total Returns" 👉 At 2.08 percent of the average annual dividend yield of the S&P500 Index over the past 35 years, the return of the corresponding "full return" index SP:SPXTR amounted to 35.98x during this time, while the net price index SP:SPX added only 17.11x, more than 2x down vs yielding of the reinvestment strategy. 👉 Full return reinvestment strategies are important in conditions where financial markets and securities are long-term settling in in wide price (zone) ranges, due to unfavorable or modest general market (macroeconomic) conditions that pushing down stock market and capital growth - for example like in the past 12 - 24 months in SPX as a result of upgoing inflation and Fed interest rates.
S
by Pandorra
6
S&P500 and VIX. A tale of two opposites.It's no secret that the stock market and in this particular example, the S&P500 (chart on the left), is negatively correlated to the Volatility Index (chart on the right). What we do want to bring to your attention however is how tightly this correlation has been in the past 12 months with VIX's Falling Wedge having the price on its middle, almost on perfect symmetry with the S&P's Bullish Megaphone. See the recurring sequences within both patterns (tops/ red, bottoms/ greens, consolidations/ blue arcs) and how inversely correlated they are. Right now VIX is headed for its Support where it ends to rebound and consolidate for around 1 month, before sharply declining for a new Lower Low. Similarly we expect the S&P500 to rise some more before peaking for the short-term, then pull-back to consolidate and then stage an aggressive end-of-the-year rally. Can it repeat a +20% rally as the previous 2 rally legs of the past 12 months? Doubtful, but potentially taking profits when VIX bottoms is certainly a good indicator to have in mind. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
2
S&P500 Over the 1day MA50 but short term sell opportunityThe S&P500 index / US500 broke and closed over the 1day MA50 on Friday, for the first time in almost 2 months. Even though it is a major long term bullish development, we see a short term sell opportunity as the 1day RSI is reversing, signalling a loss of strength on the 5 day rally. The long term pattern remains a Bearish Megaphone, so such minor technical correction is justified. Sell and target 4270 (Fibonacci 0.382, a level always reached inside the Megaphone's corrections). Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TheCryptagon
ES 4H Analysis ES experienced a remarkable surge in the past week. However, we've returned to the crucial breakout and retest range of 4400-4430. For the rally to persist, it would be ideal for ES to have a moderate retracement and maintain demand in the vicinity of 4325-4340. While the price might continue its upward trajectory without a pullback, a measured retracement would be a positive sign. It's essential to remember that we remain in a declining channel and are approaching a vital zone characterized by the breakout, retest, and trendline resistance. Anticipate inconsistent and sluggish price movements (cooling period) before either a continuation or a reversal. Key levels to monitor: Resistance: 4400-4430 Support: 4325-4340
CME_MINI:ES1!
by AmpedTrading
S&P500: This is the strongest rally of the year!S&P500 hit our TP = 4,315 (see chart at the bottom) even earlier than we expected and finally turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 56.977, MACD = -34.150, ADX = 40.157). In the process, it broke above the 1D MA50 for the first time since September 15th. The wider pattern is a Channel Down now. If the price gets rejected inside the pattern. e.g the R1 level (4,400), we will buy on the pullback to the 1D MA200 and the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 4,270. If it crosses over the top of the Channel Down, we will buy on the next 1D MA50 pullback. In both events, the target is the R3 level (TP = 4,600). See how well our prior idea has worked: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500
by InvestingScope
RBA meeting playbook – a 25bp hike is the call Having been on hold since June the RBA should hike by 25bp to get the cash rate to 4.35%. We see a 60% chance of a hike priced into interest rate futures, with the market having a high conviction that if they don’t hike next week then they will almost certainly in December. 21 of 24 economists (surveyed by Bloomberg) are calling for the hike. The doves do have a case for the RBA keeping rates on hold, but the case to hike seems stronger., with Aussie economic data consistently beating expectations since early October. This should culminate in the RBA increasing its inflation forecasts for Dec-23 and June-24 by 25bp, with its trimmed mean CPI estimate likely revised higher by around 50bp. Given Q2 GDP came in 50bp above the RBA’s forecasts we should see its growth measures increase as well. One can argue that leaving rates on hold would risk the bank being seen as getting behind the inflation curve, and we can see market pricing of 5-year inflation expectations rising to 2.81% - approaching the highest levels since 2011. Some have also focused on Treasurer Jim Chalmers recent comments that the Q3 CPI print did not represent a “material” worsening in the inflation outlook, and by leaving rates on hold it could be seen as a sign of reduced central bank independence. The RBA to review the stress on households We can look ahead to the upcoming bank earnings reports with WBC (6 Nov), NAB (9 Nov) and ANZ (13 Nov) and review their asset quality given lending rates have increased so rapidly. In the prior trading updates, there was no clear evidence that borrowers were facing broad difficulties. In fact, projections that total scheduled P&I payments will push to 9.75% of household disposable income in 2024, suggest servicing this debt is still manageable. We also see over 40% of households are ahead on mortgage payments and have enough savings to cushion a further increase. In terms of volumes, APRA’s September lending data showed total gross loans and advances grew 0.7% m/m in September, with household lending growth +0.3% m/m and business growth +1.2% m/m. Credit card volumes increased 1.2%. And with house prices still on the rise, these are factors that will lean the RBA towards a hike. The RBA will be cognisant of the impact a further lift in the cash rate will have on households and businesses – but while some will be negatively impacted and undergo real stress, on the whole borrowers should be able to readily absorb more hikes. Trading the RBA meeting Given market expectations and pricing, should the RBA leave rates on hold but retain a hawkish bias, then we should see the AUDUSD drop 50 pips or so off the bat, with a solid rally likely seen in the AUS200. With the base case being we see a 25bp hike while maintaining a tightening bias, then all things being equal the AUD should find good buyers, with AUDUSD spiking 30-40 pips. AUDNZD has been the most sensitive to interest rate differentials, as we see here in the AUS-NZ 2-year forward rate differentials. If the RBA hike and imply more then AUDNZD should break the recent highs of 1.0940. In fact, on a simple rates model the AUDNZD cross should be trading closer to 1.1050. AUDUSD is more of a risk proxy than a rates play, taking direction from S&P500 futures and the HK50 index, but the setup is looking more compelling for longs. I prefer to play this from a momentum standpoint and wait for the close above 0.6445, for a potential move into 0.6600. EURAUD, AUDCHF and AUDJPY are also risk proxies and have a good relationship with the VIX index. Granted, if the RBA hikes, then we will likely see a pop in the AUD, but after a short period traders will revert to taking its direction from S&P500 futures and cross-asset volatility. Looking at AUD 1-week implied (option) volatility (vol) we see vols are not showing any real signs option market makers are expecting a significant change in the trading conditions next week. That said, given the split pricing for Tuesday, we could see some rapid-fire moves around the announcement and that is a risk traders need to manage.
Long
by Pepperstone
📊 Indices Showdown: NASDAQ & S&P 500 at Critical Levels 🎲Hey Indices Traders! 🙌 The stock market is on the edge, and it's time to strategize. 🤔 📉 NASDAQ: Sitting at a major resistance of 14,646. Today's opening is a game-changer. Will it rebound or plummet? 🎢 📊 S&P 500: We've been short and it's paying off. The U.S. market opening is the moment of truth. It's a coin flip right now. 🪙 🤷‍♂️ Why Not Bitcoin?: While indices have their place, let's not forget Bitcoin—the smartphone to indices' feature phone. It's the asset of the future. 📱📞 🌍 Global Factors: With the Middle East situation, expect some volatility. Keep your options open. 🌐 🔮 Outlook: Indices are at a crossroads. Keep your eyes peeled and be ready to pivot. 🔄 That's the quick rundown! Stay alert and keep those charts up. 📈 One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
CME_MINI:ES1!
by FX_Professor
S&P500 This trend-line separates bull from more pain.The S&P500 index had a green session yesterday as the price made a Lower Low at the bottom of the Channel Down and seems to be rebounding. Technically that is the bullish leg towards the new Lower High, with the previous being priced on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This Channel Down however, on a 1D RSI basis as well, resembles the August - October 2022 pattern. Both corrections have almost 1 year between them. If the long-term structure that connects them is a Channel Up, then there is more selling ahead, with the potential Support/ long-term Accumulation level being on the 1W MA200 (red trend-line). In October 2022, that level was continuously tested for 2 weeks in a row and held. The bottom of that Channel Down was confirmed after the 4H MA150 (green trend-line) broke to the upside. As a result, a fair guess would be to buy if a break-out above the 4H MA150 (now at 4275) takes place again. If it does, we will buy again and target the standard +20% medium-term rise within this 12 month span (happened 3 times) aiming at 4930 (would make a new All Time High). If the index stays below the 4H MA150, we will wait until the price bounces off the 1W MA200 and buy with 4740 as the target. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TradingShot
1
🎯 Palladium to Platinum Metal Spread vs. American BigTech IndexThe breathtaking rally in palladium appears to be coming to the end. Rising supply and slowing demand are undermining the price of a metal used to neutralize car exhaust emissions. Palladium, once the cheapest of the major precious metals, soared from under $500 an ounce in 2016 to over $3,400 last March, leaving platinum and gold far behind. The reason for the rally was growing demand from automakers who needed more palladium per vehicle to meet tightening emission standards. However, supply could not keep up, resulting in huge shortages for some. And no less huge profits for others. Now this is changing. Electric vehicles (EVs) that don't need palladium are gaining more market share, and automakers are replacing some of the palladium with cheaper platinum in ICE vehicles. Meanwhile, the supply of recycled cars is growing as those with more palladium are being scrapped more and more. Palladium has fallen to around $1,600 an ounce, shedding more than 50 percent from its 2022 highs, and analysts are predicting an average price of just $1,150 an ounce in 2027. Analysts at Morgan Stanley predict that demand from automakers will fall by about 400,000 ounces between 2022 and 2027, while supply from car recycling will increase by 1.2 million ounces, with demand for palladium almost 90% dependent on automotive industry. This will push the market at around 11 million ounces per year to a near-million ounce surplus in 2027, they said. Russia's Norilsk Nickel, which accounts for appr. 38-40% of the world's palladium supplies, said its palladium production will fall by 8-14% this year. Techical picture indicates Palladium to Platinum metal spread erases as much as 50 percent vs. its peaked near 3.0 in 2022, whereas the Bearish market in Palladium has fully launched. The similar case has happened in early 00s when Palladium to Platinum ratio lost more than 90 percent over decade, as well as Nasdaq - major american BigTech index. Will the history fully repeat itself. Or will be written in a rhyme. Lets see.
NYMEX:PA1!
by Pandorra
Unlocking Trend Reversals: Mastering Bollinger Bands and VWAPsIn this comprehensive video tutorial, we will delve into the powerful techniques of utilizing Bollinger Bands and VWAPs (Volume Weighted Average Prices) to identify and master trend reversals in the futures market. ES1! You will learn how to leverage these volatility-based indicators to detect potential turning points in price trends. By understanding Bollinger Bands' ability to highlight periods of market consolidation and expansion, you will gain an edge in predicting trend shifts and take advantage of profitable opportunities. Additionally, we will explore the significance of VWAPs, an essential tool for analyzing price and volume dynamics. By combining volume-weighted prices with Bollinger Bands, you will be equipped with a comprehensive approach to assess market liquidity, support, and resistance levels. Throughout this tutorial, I provide step-by-step guidance to effectively interpret the signals generated by Bollinger Bands and VWAPs, empowering you to make informed trading decisions. We will also address common misconceptions that can often lead to misinterpretations and false signals. Whether you are a seasoned trader seeking to refine your strategy or a beginner eager to grasp these technical indicators, this video is designed to provide valuable insights and practical knowledge that can elevate your trading outcomes.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by anthonycrudele
7
S&P500 Channel Down bottom buy opportunity.The S&P500 index reached on Friday the bottom of the 3 month Channel Down and today's big (1d) green candles shows us that the Lower Low is most likely priced. Technically this is the most ideal buy entry for a rise towards the top of the pattern. Every top/ Lower High reached at least the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the current market price. Targets: 1. 4285 (0.618 Fibonacci level). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) made a Double Bottom and rebounded, a strong bullish sign. Pay attention to the Falling Resistance, you may want to book the profit earlier on a potential rejection there. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingBrokersView
S&P500 That's the longest correction since 2011.More pain ahead?S&P500 (SPX) has been on a correction mode since the week of July 24, completing 13 straight weeks (91 days) of pulling-back without a 50% retracement. As you can see on the charts above, which are on the 1W time-frame, this is the strongest such correction since October 03 2011, which stretched for 21 weeks. Even the recent Inflation Bear Cycle of 2022 had three separate correction phases of no more than 11 weeks. In total since 2011 there have been 12 such corrections (including the current), so we can realize just how long this one has gone without at least a 50% Fib retracement. This may indicate that potentially we are at or near the bottom. On the downside, it did break and close this week below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and the next Support in line is the 1W MA200 orange trend-line) at 3940. Do you think it's time to rebound to the 0.5 Fib or the index 'needs' to technically reach the 1W MA200 first? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
9