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S&P500: This is the strongest rally of the year!S&P500 hit our TP = 4,315 (see chart at the bottom) even earlier than we expected and finally turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 56.977, MACD = -34.150, ADX = 40.157). In the process, it broke above the 1D MA50 for the first time since September 15th. The wider pattern is a Channel Down now. If the price gets rejected inside the pattern. e.g the R1 level (4,400), we will buy on the pullback to the 1D MA200 and the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 4,270. If it crosses over the top of the Channel Down, we will buy on the next 1D MA50 pullback. In both events, the target is the R3 level (TP = 4,600). See how well our prior idea has worked: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500
by InvestingScope
RBA meeting playbook – a 25bp hike is the call Having been on hold since June the RBA should hike by 25bp to get the cash rate to 4.35%. We see a 60% chance of a hike priced into interest rate futures, with the market having a high conviction that if they don’t hike next week then they will almost certainly in December. 21 of 24 economists (surveyed by Bloomberg) are calling for the hike. The doves do have a case for the RBA keeping rates on hold, but the case to hike seems stronger., with Aussie economic data consistently beating expectations since early October. This should culminate in the RBA increasing its inflation forecasts for Dec-23 and June-24 by 25bp, with its trimmed mean CPI estimate likely revised higher by around 50bp. Given Q2 GDP came in 50bp above the RBA’s forecasts we should see its growth measures increase as well. One can argue that leaving rates on hold would risk the bank being seen as getting behind the inflation curve, and we can see market pricing of 5-year inflation expectations rising to 2.81% - approaching the highest levels since 2011. Some have also focused on Treasurer Jim Chalmers recent comments that the Q3 CPI print did not represent a “material” worsening in the inflation outlook, and by leaving rates on hold it could be seen as a sign of reduced central bank independence. The RBA to review the stress on households We can look ahead to the upcoming bank earnings reports with WBC (6 Nov), NAB (9 Nov) and ANZ (13 Nov) and review their asset quality given lending rates have increased so rapidly. In the prior trading updates, there was no clear evidence that borrowers were facing broad difficulties. In fact, projections that total scheduled P&I payments will push to 9.75% of household disposable income in 2024, suggest servicing this debt is still manageable. We also see over 40% of households are ahead on mortgage payments and have enough savings to cushion a further increase. In terms of volumes, APRA’s September lending data showed total gross loans and advances grew 0.7% m/m in September, with household lending growth +0.3% m/m and business growth +1.2% m/m. Credit card volumes increased 1.2%. And with house prices still on the rise, these are factors that will lean the RBA towards a hike. The RBA will be cognisant of the impact a further lift in the cash rate will have on households and businesses – but while some will be negatively impacted and undergo real stress, on the whole borrowers should be able to readily absorb more hikes. Trading the RBA meeting Given market expectations and pricing, should the RBA leave rates on hold but retain a hawkish bias, then we should see the AUDUSD drop 50 pips or so off the bat, with a solid rally likely seen in the AUS200. With the base case being we see a 25bp hike while maintaining a tightening bias, then all things being equal the AUD should find good buyers, with AUDUSD spiking 30-40 pips. AUDNZD has been the most sensitive to interest rate differentials, as we see here in the AUS-NZ 2-year forward rate differentials. If the RBA hike and imply more then AUDNZD should break the recent highs of 1.0940. In fact, on a simple rates model the AUDNZD cross should be trading closer to 1.1050. AUDUSD is more of a risk proxy than a rates play, taking direction from S&P500 futures and the HK50 index, but the setup is looking more compelling for longs. I prefer to play this from a momentum standpoint and wait for the close above 0.6445, for a potential move into 0.6600. EURAUD, AUDCHF and AUDJPY are also risk proxies and have a good relationship with the VIX index. Granted, if the RBA hikes, then we will likely see a pop in the AUD, but after a short period traders will revert to taking its direction from S&P500 futures and cross-asset volatility. Looking at AUD 1-week implied (option) volatility (vol) we see vols are not showing any real signs option market makers are expecting a significant change in the trading conditions next week. That said, given the split pricing for Tuesday, we could see some rapid-fire moves around the announcement and that is a risk traders need to manage.
Long
by Pepperstone
📊 Indices Showdown: NASDAQ & S&P 500 at Critical Levels 🎲Hey Indices Traders! 🙌 The stock market is on the edge, and it's time to strategize. 🤔 📉 NASDAQ: Sitting at a major resistance of 14,646. Today's opening is a game-changer. Will it rebound or plummet? 🎢 📊 S&P 500: We've been short and it's paying off. The U.S. market opening is the moment of truth. It's a coin flip right now. 🪙 🤷‍♂️ Why Not Bitcoin?: While indices have their place, let's not forget Bitcoin—the smartphone to indices' feature phone. It's the asset of the future. 📱📞 🌍 Global Factors: With the Middle East situation, expect some volatility. Keep your options open. 🌐 🔮 Outlook: Indices are at a crossroads. Keep your eyes peeled and be ready to pivot. 🔄 That's the quick rundown! Stay alert and keep those charts up. 📈 One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
CME_MINI:ES1!
by FX_Professor
S&P500 This trend-line separates bull from more pain.The S&P500 index had a green session yesterday as the price made a Lower Low at the bottom of the Channel Down and seems to be rebounding. Technically that is the bullish leg towards the new Lower High, with the previous being priced on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This Channel Down however, on a 1D RSI basis as well, resembles the August - October 2022 pattern. Both corrections have almost 1 year between them. If the long-term structure that connects them is a Channel Up, then there is more selling ahead, with the potential Support/ long-term Accumulation level being on the 1W MA200 (red trend-line). In October 2022, that level was continuously tested for 2 weeks in a row and held. The bottom of that Channel Down was confirmed after the 4H MA150 (green trend-line) broke to the upside. As a result, a fair guess would be to buy if a break-out above the 4H MA150 (now at 4275) takes place again. If it does, we will buy again and target the standard +20% medium-term rise within this 12 month span (happened 3 times) aiming at 4930 (would make a new All Time High). If the index stays below the 4H MA150, we will wait until the price bounces off the 1W MA200 and buy with 4740 as the target. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TradingShot
1
🎯 Palladium to Platinum Metal Spread vs. American BigTech IndexThe breathtaking rally in palladium appears to be coming to the end. Rising supply and slowing demand are undermining the price of a metal used to neutralize car exhaust emissions. Palladium, once the cheapest of the major precious metals, soared from under $500 an ounce in 2016 to over $3,400 last March, leaving platinum and gold far behind. The reason for the rally was growing demand from automakers who needed more palladium per vehicle to meet tightening emission standards. However, supply could not keep up, resulting in huge shortages for some. And no less huge profits for others. Now this is changing. Electric vehicles (EVs) that don't need palladium are gaining more market share, and automakers are replacing some of the palladium with cheaper platinum in ICE vehicles. Meanwhile, the supply of recycled cars is growing as those with more palladium are being scrapped more and more. Palladium has fallen to around $1,600 an ounce, shedding more than 50 percent from its 2022 highs, and analysts are predicting an average price of just $1,150 an ounce in 2027. Analysts at Morgan Stanley predict that demand from automakers will fall by about 400,000 ounces between 2022 and 2027, while supply from car recycling will increase by 1.2 million ounces, with demand for palladium almost 90% dependent on automotive industry. This will push the market at around 11 million ounces per year to a near-million ounce surplus in 2027, they said. Russia's Norilsk Nickel, which accounts for appr. 38-40% of the world's palladium supplies, said its palladium production will fall by 8-14% this year. Techical picture indicates Palladium to Platinum metal spread erases as much as 50 percent vs. its peaked near 3.0 in 2022, whereas the Bearish market in Palladium has fully launched. The similar case has happened in early 00s when Palladium to Platinum ratio lost more than 90 percent over decade, as well as Nasdaq - major american BigTech index. Will the history fully repeat itself. Or will be written in a rhyme. Lets see.
NYMEX:PA1!
by Pandorra
Unlocking Trend Reversals: Mastering Bollinger Bands and VWAPsIn this comprehensive video tutorial, we will delve into the powerful techniques of utilizing Bollinger Bands and VWAPs (Volume Weighted Average Prices) to identify and master trend reversals in the futures market. ES1! You will learn how to leverage these volatility-based indicators to detect potential turning points in price trends. By understanding Bollinger Bands' ability to highlight periods of market consolidation and expansion, you will gain an edge in predicting trend shifts and take advantage of profitable opportunities. Additionally, we will explore the significance of VWAPs, an essential tool for analyzing price and volume dynamics. By combining volume-weighted prices with Bollinger Bands, you will be equipped with a comprehensive approach to assess market liquidity, support, and resistance levels. Throughout this tutorial, I provide step-by-step guidance to effectively interpret the signals generated by Bollinger Bands and VWAPs, empowering you to make informed trading decisions. We will also address common misconceptions that can often lead to misinterpretations and false signals. Whether you are a seasoned trader seeking to refine your strategy or a beginner eager to grasp these technical indicators, this video is designed to provide valuable insights and practical knowledge that can elevate your trading outcomes.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by anthonycrudele
7
S&P500 Channel Down bottom buy opportunity.The S&P500 index reached on Friday the bottom of the 3 month Channel Down and today's big (1d) green candles shows us that the Lower Low is most likely priced. Technically this is the most ideal buy entry for a rise towards the top of the pattern. Every top/ Lower High reached at least the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the current market price. Targets: 1. 4285 (0.618 Fibonacci level). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) made a Double Bottom and rebounded, a strong bullish sign. Pay attention to the Falling Resistance, you may want to book the profit earlier on a potential rejection there. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingBrokersView
S&P500 That's the longest correction since 2011.More pain ahead?S&P500 (SPX) has been on a correction mode since the week of July 24, completing 13 straight weeks (91 days) of pulling-back without a 50% retracement. As you can see on the charts above, which are on the 1W time-frame, this is the strongest such correction since October 03 2011, which stretched for 21 weeks. Even the recent Inflation Bear Cycle of 2022 had three separate correction phases of no more than 11 weeks. In total since 2011 there have been 12 such corrections (including the current), so we can realize just how long this one has gone without at least a 50% Fib retracement. This may indicate that potentially we are at or near the bottom. On the downside, it did break and close this week below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and the next Support in line is the 1W MA200 orange trend-line) at 3940. Do you think it's time to rebound to the 0.5 Fib or the index 'needs' to technically reach the 1W MA200 first? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
9
US500 ~ 4H Intraday (Bearish Capitulation)CAPITALCOM:US500 intraday chart analysis: 4H chart = bearish H&S pattern development + neckline test validation. Fib retracements: Straight line/left labels = March 2020 (Covid) low - Jan 2022 high Dotted line/right labels = Jan 2022 high - Oct 2022 low 1st target (yellow dashed): ~4100 lower parallel channel & May/June lower-range chop confluence Temporary oversold/bounce target? TBC.. 2nd target (white dotted): ~4000 psych level, H&S extrapolation, 38.2% Fib retrace & declining trend-line (Aug 2022 + Feb 2023 peaks/pivot points) Bullish reversal target: ~4200 (23.6% Fib retrace)
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by BlueHatInvestor
Are we rushing into the possible next Big Short?Is S&P 500 about to “CRASH”? Are we rushing into the possible next Big Short? So the S&P 500 futures contracts are depreciating in value, yes. Yet we foresaw this series of events. Has it been a rapid decline?
No. The Price Action and structure continues sound. There is no sign yet of panic or rapid selling signaling the Risk Off scenario all are predicting. Do I expect further downside? Yes I will go into my reasoning 1. DXY following a Bullish structure. Currently consolidating in a Bullish Flag pattern that could give us a break out of this pattern with a Higher High soon. 1. With a Bullish Dollar we can expect Bearish Equities. Lets break ES pice action from top down. - Monthly - ES offered a Lower Low from June 23 Lows. But I am looking at the Monthly with caution since the month of October is not over yet. - Weekly - ES made its third down leg and yet it was unable to create a Lower Low in comparison to the week of October 2nd 23. - The down closed weekly candle of last week looks strong enough to take out this low on momentum alone. - So it is possible we will see 4235.5 before any other move. - - Daily - On the Daily we see the last 4 Bearish days in a row, it can be assumed that the Bearish momentum along could carry price further down to establish a new Lower Low on this Bearish trend which will be at 4235.50 - I also like the potential of 4218.75 In conclusion. I do expect to see further downside but I would like to remind all that this will be the last week of October and to top that we are getting very close to establishing a new Lower Low on this Trend. What does that mean? Well we have had and extended leg down on this trend throughout the month of October. I would expect a retracement after a new Low is stablished with a subsequent bounce to settle a possible Lower High on this trend. To accompany this thought it is the end of the Month and expecting a bit of retracemnt from the Monthly direction is healthy. If you look at the Daily chart you will notice a gap between Thursday Oct 19,23 And Friday oct 20, 23. I am expecting price to target this Gap once the lows are stablished. Still always follow price it will never steer you wrong.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by JP_Tru
S&P500: Megaphone buy opportunity.S&P500 is almost technically oversold on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 30.205, MACD = -54.210, ADX = 37.499) with the price reaching the 0.618 Fibonacci level from the March 13th Low. The last time the RSI was at 30.000 was on October 3rd, the previous LL of the Bearish Megaphone pattern. The two bullish sequences of this pattern have been around +4.60%. Since this is a double bottom signal, we expect a rise of equal proportion, targeting the 1D MA50 (TP = 4,315). See how well our prior idea has worked: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
1
Nasdaq Bank Index: Putting A Bad Hair Day Into PerspectiveElon Musk still sees danger ahead for the US economy if the Fed does not contain the regional banking crisis. Financial blog Zero Hedge previously tweeted about the critical role of small and medium-sized banks in the US financial system — a hot topic following the sharp collapse this month of Silicon Valley Bank, a technology startup lender and the first bank to be taken over by regulators since the 2008 financial crisis. Small and medium banks account for 50% of commercial and industrial lending and 60% of residential real estate lending, among other loans, notes Zero Hedge with accompanying charts. “If the Fed does not contain the collapse of regional banks, there will be another Great Depression,” it wrote, referring to the economic crisis that lasted from 1929 to 1939. "This is a serious risk," Musk replied to Zero Hedge. According to the US Department of Labor, in 1933, at the height of the Great Depression, approximately 25% of the 12.8 million people in the US labor force were unemployed. This wasn't the first time Musk had intervened on his social media about the collapse of the SVB. Last week, he compared the bank failure to the Wall Street crash of the 1920s that preceded the Great Depression. "There are a lot of similarities this year with 1929," Tesla CEO said in response to a post from Ark Invest' Cathy Wood. Nasdaq Bank Index BSE:BANK includes securities of companies listed on the NASDAQ that are classified under the industry classification benchmark as banks. These include banks that provide a wide range of financial services, including retail banking, loans and money transfers. On February 5, 1971, the underlying NASDAQ Bank Index was 100 points.
NASDAQ:BANK
by Pandorra
5
Tech stock Vs Energy stocks. The Competition for Decades This is an education-style publication where the main graph is a comparison (ratio) between two ETFs (funds) managed by State Street Global Advisors Corporation, the creator of the world’s first ETF (well-known in nowadays as AMEX:SPY ) and an indexing pioneer. The first one ETF is The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund, AMEX:XLK . 👉 AMEX:XLK seeks to provide investment results that provide an effective representation of the Technology sector of the S&P 500 Index SP:SPX . 👉 AMEX:XLK seeks to provide precise exposure to companies from Technology hardware, storage, and peripherals; software; communications equipment; semiconductors and semiconductor equipment; IT services; and electronic equipment, instruments and components. 👉 AMEX:XLK is a place where securities of American World-known Technology companies like Apple Inc. NASDAQ:AAPL and Microsoft Corp. NASDAQ:MSFT , like Nvidia Corp. NASDAQ:NVDA and American Micro Devices NASDAQ:AMD , like Cisco Systems Inc. NASDAQ:CSCO and Adobe Inc. NASDAQ:ADBE meet together. 👉 In contrast with other Technology-related ETFs like NASDAQ:QQQ (Invesco Nasdaq 100 Index ETF) or NASDAQ:ONEQ (Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index ETF), stocks allocation in AMEX:XLK depends not only on their market capitalization, but also hugely on Technology industry allocation (like software, technology hardware, storage & peripherals, semiconductors & semiconductor equipment, IT services, communications equipment, electronic equipment instruments & components). That is why allocation of Top 3 holdings in AMEX:XLK ( Microsoft Corp. NASDAQ:MSFT , Apple Inc. NASDAQ:AAPL and Broadcom Inc. NASDAQ:AVGO ) prevails 50 percent of Funds assets under management. 👉 Typically AMEX:XLK holdings are Growth investing stocks. The second one ETF is The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund, AMEX:XLE . 👉 AMEX:XLE seeks to provide investment results that provide an effective representation of the energy sector of the S&P 500 Index SP:SPX . 👉 AMEX:XLE seeks to provide precise exposure to companies in the oil, gas and consumable fuel, energy equipment and services industries. 👉 AMEX:XLE allows investors to take strategic or tactical positions at a more targeted level than traditional style based investing. 👉 AMEX:XLE is a place where stocks of American World-known Oil companies like Exxon Mobil Corp. NYSE:XOM and Chevron Corp. NYSE:CVX , like EOG Resources Corp. NYSE:EOG and ConocoPhillips NYSE:COP , like Valero Energy Corp. NYSE:VLO and Phillips 66 NYSE:PSX meet each other. 👉 Weight of Top 3 holdings in AMEX:XLE (Exxon Mobil Corp. NYSE:XOM , Chevron Corp. NYSE:CVX and EOG Resources Corp. NYSE:EOG ) prevails 45 percent of Funds assets under management. 👉 Typically AMEX:XLE holdings are Value investing stocks. The main graph represents different stock market stages of work 🔁 Early 2000s, or post Dot-com Bubble stage, that can be characterized as Energy Superiority Era. There were no solid Quantitative Easing and Money printing. U.S. Treasury Bond Interest rates TVC:TNX , TVC:TYX as well as U.S. Federal Funds Rate ECONOMICS:USINTR were huge like nowadays. Crude oil prices TVC:UKOIL , TVC:USOIL jumped as much as $150 per barrel. The ratio between AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLE funds collapsed more than in 10 times over this stage. 🔁 Late 2000s to early 2010s, or post Housing Bubble stage, that can be characterized as a Beginning of Quantitative Easing and Money printing. U.S. Treasury Bond Interest rates TVC:TNX , TVC:TYX as well as U.S. Federal Funds Rate ECONOMICS:USINTR turned lower. Bitcoin born. The ratio between AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLE funds hit the bottom. 🔁 Late 2010s to early 2020s, or post Brexit stage, that can be characterized as a Continuation of Quantitative Easing and Money printing. U.S. Treasury Bond Interest rates TVC:TNX , TVC:TYX as well as U.S. Federal Funds Rate ECONOMICS:USINTR turned to Zero or so. Crude oil turned to Negative prices in April 2020 while Bitcoin hit almost $70,000 per coin in 2021. Ben Bernanke (14th Chairman of the Federal Reserve In office since Feb 1, 2006 until Jan 31, 2014) was awarded the 2022 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, jointly with Douglas Diamond and Philip H. Dybvig, "for research on banks and financial crises", "for bank failure research" and more specifically for his analysis of the Great Depression. The ratio between AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLE funds becomes great and respectively with monetary stimulus hit the all time high. 🔁 Early 2020s, or post Covid-19 Bubble stage, that specifically repeats early 2000s Energy Superiority Era. There is no again Quantitative Easing and Money printing. U.S. Treasury Bond Interest rates TVC:TNX , TVC:TYX as well as U.S. Federal Funds Rate ECONOMICS:USINTR are huge nowadays like many years ago. Commodities prices like Wheat CBOT:ZW1! , Cocoa ICEUS:CC1! , Coffee ICEUS:KC1! , Crude oil prices TVC:UKOIL , TVC:USOIL jump again to historical highs. The ratio between AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLE funds is fading to moderate levels that can be seen as 200-Month simple moving average. 💡 In a conclusion.. I wonder, how the history repeats itself. This is all because markets are cyclical, and lessons of history always still remain unlearned. 💡 Author thanks PineCoders TradingView Community, especially to @disster PineCoder for its excellent and simple script Quantitative Easing Dates . Based on this script, Easing Dates are highlighted at the graph.
AMEX:XLKEducation
by Pandorra
S&P500 - Long; For now ...This naturally rimes with the Nasdaq signals and with the overall global equities outlook. Here, two opposing forces are the most significant factor; 1) The unfolding (and enduring!) USD strength - Downward pressure ; 2) The massive, continuously inbound (to US) capital flows , primarily from Europe - Upward pressure . Driven by the rapidly unraveling globalization (driven by a Europe which the US decided to turn into a bonfire that is now clearly visible from Alpha-Centauri, and a China which is dying of old age as the demographic apocalypse is hitting hard this year - 2023), these fundamental forces will likely make this year one for the records - especially when it comes index (equities) trading. Many, many trading opportunities to be expected, throughout this year, probably far more than in other periods. Laissez le bon temp roule!! ...
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Nemo_Confidat
8
US 100 INDEX. THREE WORDS THAT YOU SHOULD KNOW - LET'S GO DIVINGThere are looming risks that could "break" the US economy and end its current growth cycle. Third-quarter GDP estimates are tracking above 5% and the US economy has added more than 2 million jobs year-to-date. But there are three looming risks that could "break" the stock market and economy and end its current growth cycle, according to a Tuesday note from Ned Davis Research. These are the three risks to consider. 1. A resurgence in inflation Inflation has made progress in trending towards the Federal Reserve's long-term 2% target after CPI peaked at about 9% last June, but any resurgence in rising prices would threaten the trajectory of the Fed's current tightening cycle. 2. The 10-year Treasury yield is around 5.00% The 10-year US Treasury yield has surged so far this year, hitting a 16-year high of 5.02% on Monday. A further increase in this key benchmark rate would spell trouble for the broader economy, specifically if the yield breaks above the 5.25% level. The 5.00 - 5.50% yield range TVC:TNX was an important double-top in 2006/2007, and also represented the peak policy rate of that tightening cycle. So perhaps we wouldn't take a break of that level lightly. Higher interest rates increase borrowing rates for consumers and businesses and often curtail demand, leading to slower economic growth, if not a contraction in growth. The 10-year US Treasury yield was at 4.86% on Tuesday. 3. Credit conditions deteriorating So far this year, the bond market has been more concerned about interest rate risks than credit risks. Technical graph below for US 100 Index NASDAQ:NDX says that main 125-Day SMA support has been broken as well as major upside trend, and technical figure known as "Head and Shoulders" is in progress right now.
TVC:NDQ
by Pandorra