Update on #SP500 #SPY #SPX #ES1!My alternative count I came up with a week ago is getting increasingly likely. I will No trading for me here so far. Watching developments and will discuss them in details in Weekly Update.
Es1
S&P 500, 6/22/23For Thursday, 4444.50 can contain session strength, below which 4352.50 is likely intraday, 4257.50 in reach by the end of next week, where the market can bottom out on a weekly basis, possibly into later July.
Upside Thursday, pushing/opening above 4444.50 signals 4462.50, while closing today above 4444.50 indicates 4503.50 within several days, able to contain buying through next week and the point to settle above for yielding the 4613.00 longer-term objective within several more weeks.
Day Trade Market Condition jun 21, 2023Day Trade Market Condition jun 21, 2023
levels for NQ ES CL BTC
watch the table left side for trade, right side for trend
S&P500 Buy opportunity approachingThe S&P500 crossed under the MA50 (4h) and is approaching the bottom of the 1 month Channel Up.
That would complete a -2.60% decline from the top, which is consistent with the pull backs of late April and May.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy at 4340.
Targets:
1. 4515 (Resistance 1).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) gives the most optimal buy entry when it crosses under the 30.00 oversold level. If that happens near the bottom of the Channel Up, it will be an additional reason to buy.
Please like, follow and comment!!
Notes:
Past trading plan:
Powell Trying to Tame the Runaway Bull?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 06/21
In our trading plans for Fri. 06/16, we wrote: "The spectacular bull run of the last few weeks fueled by speculation around the Fed policies and, possibly, an epic short squeeze, could be consolidating in the week ahead". This has played out as anticipated with yesterday's consolidation. It appears gaining traction with Powell's comments about inflation and interest rates this morning.
The potential bull trap cautioned about by our models continues to be in play, while the markets seem to be calling the bluff of Powell's hawkish posturing in last Thursday's "hawkish pause" presser. Nevertheless, bears should be cautious of not jumping the gun but wait for confirmation before initiating any shorts. It is a bull market until it is broken - currently, this bull run is not broken.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate no positional trading plans for today, as they are wary of a potential bull trap ahead, while also cautious about continued short squeezes off of any fresh shorts drawn in by the prints higher in the "new bull market".
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session.
Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4390, 4379, 4368, or 4357 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4385, 4376, 4364, or 4354 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate no explicit exits for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:16am ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #softlanding, #hawkishpause, #pause
Bulls and Bears zone for 06-21-2023Markets pulled back yesterday and ETH session seems to be trending down.
Any test of yesterday's Low could provide direction.
Level to watch 4413 --- 4411
S&P 500, 6/21/23The 4195.75 long-term support area can contain selling through the balance of the year, above which 4606.50 remains a 3 - 5 month objective, the 4808.25, January 2022 all-time high expected by the end of the year.
On the way up, 4606.50 can contain monthly buying pressures, with a settlement above 4606.50 indicating the targeted 4808.25 within 3 - 5 weeks, where the broader market can double-top on a monthly basis.
Downside, a weekly settlement below 4195.75 would be considered a significant failed long-term buy signal, in essence indicating 3898.25 within 2 - 3 months.
S&P500 On the 4hour MA50. Sell if this breaks.S&P500 / US500 almost touched today the 4hour MA50 for the first time since June 1st.
This is a Support and as long as it holds (along with the Channel Up), buy and target Resistance A at 4500.
If the price crosses under the Channel Up, sell and target the 1day MA50 at 4235.
If the 4hour RSI makes a Bullish Cross before 4235 gets hit, then book the profit on the short earlier and switch to buying again.
Previous chart:
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Day Trade Market Condition jun 20, 2023Day Trade Market Condition jun 20, 2023
levels for NQ ES CL BTC
watch the table left side for trade, right side for trend
S&P500: 1D RSI hit the 7 month Resistance. Sell signal.The S&P500 is trading inside a Channel Up since the March 13th low with 1D technicals heavily overbought (RSI = 72.465, MACD = 71.880, ADX = 42.303). That is a first bearish flag, with the second alert coming from the 1D RSI which hit on Thursday the HH trendline that started back in November. That is a major sell signal, calling for a pull back near the 1D MA50 (TP = 4,270). If the candle closes under S1, we will extend selling to S1 (TP = 4,105). If not, we will buy the first pull back and target the R1 (TP = 4,500).
Prior idea:
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S&P 500, 6/20/23The 4195.75 long-term support area can contain selling through the balance of the year, above which 4606.50 remains a 3 - 5 month objective, the 4808.25, January 2022 all-time high expected by the end of the year.
On the way up, 4606.50 can contain monthly buying pressures, with a settlement above 4606.50 indicating the targeted 4808.25 within 3 - 5 weeks, where the broader market can double-top on a monthly basis.
Downside, a weekly settlement below 4195.75 would be considered a significant failed long-term buy signal, in essence indicating 3898.25 within 2 - 3 months.
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For Tuesday, 4451.75 can contain weekly selling pressures, above which 4606.50 remains 2 - 3 week objective.
Upside Tuesday, 2522.50 can contain session strength, while closing above 4522.50 should yield 4606.50 by the end of next week, able to contain buying through July.
Downside Tuesday, breaking/opening below 4451.75 allows 4404.25 intraday, able to contain session weakness and the level to settle below for indicating a good weekly high, 4299.50 then expected by the end of next week, where the market can place a weekly low, possibly into later July trade.
#SP500 Alternative #SPX #SPY #ES1! A less demanding and yet more robust looking alternative would be to drop expectation of ABC flat and replace it with WXY double zigzag.
This scenario popped up just now when I erased some of the previous drawings, zoomed out and tried thinking bigger and less anchored by the previous ideas.
#SP500 Medium-Term #ES1! #SPY #SPXThe base case scenario revolves around the idea with ABC flat. The price therefore needs (i) to stay inside the channel and (ii) dip below the red dashed line to penetrate into wave territory.
#SP500 Update #SPY #SPX #ES1! Last week I expected a more pronounced correction (wave b) that never materialised, so I did not do any trading in SP500.
This week I expect the market to form a local top by either doing an expanding diagonal (blue) or by tracing an impulse wave (black labels (4)(5)).
Bull Consolidation Ahead of the Holiday-shortened Next WeekS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 06/16
The spectacular bull run of the last few weeks fueled by speculation around the Fed policies and, possibly, an epic short squeeze, could be consolidating in the week ahead. Weekly options expirations could be playing another factor today.
The potential bull trap cautioned about by our models continues to be in play, while the markets seem to be calling the bluff of Powell's hawkish posturing in yesterday's "hawkish pause" presser. Nevertheless, bears should be cautious of not jumping the gun but wait for confirmation before initiating any shorts. It is a bull market until it is broken - currently, this bull run is not broken.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate no positional trading plans for today, as they are wary of a potential bull trap ahead, while also cautious about continued short squeezes off of any fresh shorts drawn in by the prints higher in the "new bull market".
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session.
Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4442, 4420, or 4400 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4439, 4414, or 4394 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exit on a break below 4420, and short exits on a break above 4343 or 4383. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:01am ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #softlanding, #hawkishpause, #pause
Day Trade Market Condition jun 16, 2023Day Trade Market Condition jun 16, 2023
levels for NQ ES CL BTC
watch the table left side for trade, right side for trend
Extreme Greed and Overheated Market; Time to Walk AwaySo while I've had some gains on this market, especially below the 4300 range, at this point I cannot explain where this extreme level of optimism and risk taking behavior is coming from and I think it is time for me to walk away.
While I can agree we are in a Bull Market, and I do not think at this point that we will be visiting the lows of 2022 without some major global catastrophe, I cannot get into any more movement upwards, and yet at the same time, I have decided continuing to try and catch the thrown knife is just going to lead to more issues for me.
I MIGHT go Short at 4500, since 4500 is the highest projection for 2023 from ANY market and economic viewpoint, but even that just doesn't feel promising enough to mess with any of this.
I've no idea what this rally is attached to other than AI excitement. The Forward Earnings of some companies are running at over 200x which is just absolute lunacy.
So, all things being said, at this point I am walking away, and likely will continue to walk away until we drop back to may 4350 or so, and see if some of the excessive money into the FANG+ drops out and begins to get into a wider investment sentiment into the market.
Safe trading if you stay in this, and remember your risk management plan.
S&P 500, 6/16/23For Friday, 4446.50 can contain selling through next week, above which 4603.25 remains 2 - 3 week objective.
Upside Friday, 4509.00 can contain session strength, while closing above 4509.00 should yield 4603.25 by the end of next week, where the market can top out through July activity.
Downside Friday, breaking/opening below 4446.50 allows 4395.50 intraday, able to contain session weakness and the level to settle below for pivoting the market south into next week, 4263.75 then expected within 3 - 5 days, where the market can place a weekly low.
Overall, a weekly settlement today below 4446.50 will keep 4185.00 in reach by the end of July.
CPI Headline down; Core flatlined; Markets continue to soarSo we ran along the 30m uptrending line yesterday, and keep nearing striking the 6hr insanely steep ascending trendline I didn't think we could maintain.
Much to my dismay, I am sitting in my negative trade. I may soon just eat a loss, which will cause me to take a day off as per my risk management plan. Luckily at the moment I did go Long yesterday in a couple 6E contracts and it has me up around the same amount I've been losing on the ES contract I have.
I still hold out that I think we need to find a leg down, even if just briefly to around 4200, which is crazy at this point that 4200 so quickly became a potential support line. The FANG stocks are just barely shy of their highest trading prices ever, and will be there by today or tomorrow at the current growth rate we've been seeing.
I understand the trends keep calling for upward movement, but I am definitely just baffled by how optimistic we seem to be and the sky rocketing valuations we are dealing with as a market index. The growth in the IT sector is over 30% already year to date. The current expectation is absolutely no slowing in growth this year, that none of the monetary tightening is going to impact anything, and that the world is moving forward without any risk. I suppose I am just entirely too cautious to get behind such a narrative at the moment.
Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ESU Contract)
30m - 4389 Downtrend (6/13/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 4329 Uptrend (6/08/2023) Lower High
2Hr - 4336 Uptrend (6/08/2023) Higher High
3Hr - 4270 Uptrend (6/01/2023) Higher High
4Hr - 4286 Uptrend (6/02/2023) Higher High
6Hr - 4333 Uptrend (6/02/2023) Higher High
12Hr - 4261 Uptrend (5/26/2023) Higher High
Daily - 4175 Uptrend (3/31/2023) Only Trend
Weekly - None
Economic Data;
As I said, CPI data came in, headline is down, but core inflation is mostly flat. Tomorrow is FOMC Rate day, so more fun to come!
My sentiment overall is;
WTF... I have nothing else haha
Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
Markets Calling the "Hawkish" Bluff of Powell?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 06/15
The potential bull trap cautioned about by our models continues to be in play, while the markets seem to be calling the bluff of Powell's hawkish posturing in yesterday's "hawkish pause" presser. Nevertheless, bears should be cautious of not jumping the gun but wait for confirmation before initiating any shorts. It is a bull market until it is broken - currently, this bull run is not broken.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate no positional trading plans for today, as they are wary of a potential bull trap ahead.
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session.
Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans for THU. 06/15:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4425, 4400, 4392, 4475, or 4361 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4397, 4389, 4371, 4358, or 4337 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exit on a break below 4420, and short exits on a break above 4343 or 4383. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:01am ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #softlanding, #hawkishpause, #pause
Day Trade Market Condition jun 15, 2023Day Trade Market Condition jun 15, 2023
levels for NQ ES CL BTC
watch the table left side for trade, right side for trend
S&P500 RSI overbought but can give one last pushThe S&P500 is extending the rally inside the long term Channel Up.
The MA50 (1d) has been supporting and is untested since March 30th.
Such a strong rally undeniably created an overbought RSI (1d).
Last time the index gave a similar RSI pattern (August 10th 2022), the price gave a few more days of upside and one last push before a correction.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price and as long as the RSI (1d) remains above its MA level.
Targets:
1. 4515 (Resistance 1 and April 21st 2022 top, near the top of the long term Channel Up).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) technically gives a signal that the uptrend is coming to a stop and a correction is starting, when it crosses under its MA level. Use this to your advantage in order to book the profit earlier if needed.
Please like, follow and comment!!
Notes:
Past trading plan:
S&P 500, 6/15/23For Thursday, 4399.00 can contain intraday weakness, the targeted 4441.25 - 4446.50 area in reach and able to contain buying through the balance of June.
Holding below 4441.25 allows 4203.75 long-term support by the end of July or sooner, while closing today above 4446.50 signals our 4600.00 longer-term objective over the next 2 - 3 weeks.
Downside Thursday, 4367.50 can contain session weakness, while closing below 4367.50 indicates a good weekly high, 4263.75 then expected within several days, also able to contain session weakness and the point to settle below for indicating 4186.75 - 4203.75 long-term support within several more days.
