Es1
S&P500 INDEX (SPY) Your Trading Plan For Next Week
S&P500 Index formed a huge ascending triangle formation on a daily.
Its neckline is a key horizontal resistance.
To catch the next bullish wave, wait for a bullish breakout of 4215,
it will confirm the violation.
A bullish continuation will be expected to 4300 then.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
ES EOD Update15 pts until the ES gap fill, you know it'll get it before Tuesday open. The only scenario where i see a gap down is if it's overbought during Euro hours and tanks before the market opens. That has happened before.
I'm gonna snag a few ATM BITO puts just so I wake up and pay attention Tuesday (just another beer money bet). Otherwise I'll just wind up sleeping in, lol. Tuesday will be a day to watch because it will go overbought.
#AMD3 Leveraged 3x Long with American Micro Devices StocksAll the World chipmakers are on the rush this night, due to Nvidia Q1'23 Earnings Report.
LSE:AMD3 is the Leverage Shares 3x AMD ETP Securities that seeks to track the iSTOXX Leveraged 3x AMD Index, which is designed to provide 3x the daily return of Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. stock, adjusted to reflect the fees and costs of maintaining a leveraged position in the stock.
It invests directly in the underlying Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. stock and uses margin (borrowing) to purchase additional shares of Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. stock.
For example, if Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. rises by 1% over a day, then the ETP will rise by 3%, excluding fees. However, if Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. falls by 1% over a day, then the ETP will fall by 3%, excluding fees.
Key Features
• Opportunity to magnify returns in one simple trade.
• Liquid. Trades like an equity on exchange, with multiple market makers (MMs).
• You cannot lose more than the amount invested, and an intraday rebalance mechanism is designed to cushion the largest intra-day falls.
• Simple to trade, no need for futures, no need to use margin accounts.
• Transparent structure with full ownership of the underlying assets, so credit risk effectively negated.
• Is independent and managed by industry experts.
Key Risks
• Investing in Short and Leveraged ETPs is only suitable for sophisticated traders who understand leverage, daily rebalancing and compounded daily returns.
• Investors can lose the full value of their initial investment (but not more).
• Losses are magnified due to the nature of leveraged returns. Therefore, Short and Leveraged ETPs are only suitable for investors willing to take a high level of risk.
• Daily compounding may result in returns which an investor may not expect if the investor has not fully understood how a Leverage Shares ETP works.
• Due to daily rebalancing and compounding, ETP returns measured over periods longer than one day may differ from the returns of the underlying stock multiplied by the leverage factor.
• Only use these ETPs if you can monitor your positions daily or during the day.
• Not an investment advise, so please see and read carefully the ‘Risks Factors’ section of the Prospectus for a more detailed discussion of the potential risks associated with an investment in this product.
Key TA Highlights
• LSE:AMD3 trades higher its weekly SMA(52), since middle of the May, 2023
• Technical picture indicates the possibility to further 100 per cent upside price action.
ES UpdateNot overbought yet, looks to me like it fills the gap Tuesday on a pump and dump.
Looks like you'll still get the daily update Tues/Wed because I'm planning on shorting something, maybe shitcoin, lol. Debt deal will be a "sell the news" event next week. Keep in mind all it does is maintain the status quo, it doesn't actually mean anything.
Market does look like it's rolled over a bit because Euro markets are closing but today is 401k Ponzi payday, so possible kick up in the afternoon as fund managers have to buy.
Trends in a Middle Zone; direction undecidedI'm on my laptop working outside on my deck so this will probably be a bit brief. We basically have a flatlined higher high on the 2hr, I've gone short with it, but anything above this and my short positioning will be fizzled out for now. I'm up about $1000 on my 6E trade so I will be quick to cash out for a $4000 profit week and call it.
Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4150 Uptrend (5/24/2023) Lower High
1Hr - 4163 Uptrend (5/25/2023) Lower High
2Hr - 4167 Uptrend (5/26/2023) Higher High
3Hr - 4180 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low
4Hr - 4159 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low
6Hr - 4144 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low
12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
With momentum beginning to shift back up, any movement above 4167 may be followed with more upside. Additionally any retracement down may be a buy the dip moment.
The Short Position;
I am in what I would consider the last short position at 4167ish. The only other move I see is a strong push below the lower high trend of the 30m at 4147ish today.
Economic Data;
We have PCE, Durable Goods, and Personal Income today. All could cause some movement here soon.
Earnings;
At this point I consider earnings season to be over.
I understand the investment into AI, but overall if investors don't take profit when things are up, what is the point of investing. Looking to see if people take profit soon on the various tech climb.
My sentiment overall is;
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral
Long Term - Bullish/Neutral
Safe trading! Remember your risk management!
ES UpdatePCE numbers came in higher than expected as I predicted but apparently the futures traders don't care, lol. Futures barely touched red and went right back up.
Probably more whipsaw today, a pump on debt deal and then a a dip next week when MFI gets overbought.
Gotta love it when the market pumps bad news.
Spx 🌊Salutations,
At this present moment, I find it challenging to elucidate the precise reasoning as to why the S&P 500 was poised to recede back to the melancholy depths of the pandemic lows.
Nevertheless, I can confidently postulate the resurgence of a risk-on environment in the aftermath.
ideally as we approach the yuletide chill of Christmas Eve at the conclusion of this present year,
I cast my net at $2,100 as the absolute nadir of this grizzly mark-down-phase.
---
Upon a successful breach of this strategic area,
I am further prophesizing a subsequent phoenix-like rise,
elevating us to a commanding $7,777 threshold as we stride valiantly into the year 2030 through a vortex of an ending diagonal.
---
2024 - $2,111
2030 - $7,777
2035 - $12,222
☿
I've Got the Magic, 26 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
"I've got the magic in me
Every time I touch that track, it turns into gold
Now everybody knows I've got the magic in me
When I hit the floor, the girls come snapping at me
Now everybody wants some crystal magic"
I'm borrowing those song lyrics by The Treblemakers from the Movie: Pitch Perfect.
➤ Equities did indeed gap higher to close the previous days' price gap and magically also closed the gap it created during today's open. Killing two birds (I mean gaps) with one stone.
➤ Nvidia's share price also played with the AI magic trick for a huge price gap of it's own. Will this gap get filled? I'm 💯% sure it will but not in one day.
➤ That being said, that bit of magic helped me out of my long position with a teeny tiny profit leaving behind a small short position. Price is setting up nicely for a Short move. If the price path that I imagine magically comes to fruition it should look something like this: Prices are re-testing the recent high by moving slightly up or down or sideways for a couple of more days prior to the real move lower.
➤ Conclusion: 🐆 I'm looking forward to seeing more magic tricks. 🪄
EQUITY TREND:
⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP
⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP
⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
S&P 500, 5/26/23For Friday, 4156.50 can contain session weakness, above which 4209.00 - 4228.00 is attainable intraday and able to contain buying through Q3.
Holding below 4209.00 will keep 4023.00 in reach over the next several weeks, 3852.25 over the next several months, while closing today above 4228.00 indicates 4392.00 within several weeks, 4532.50 within several months.
Downside Friday, breaking/opening below 4156.50 allows 4109.50, possibly 4081.25 intraday, also able to contain session weakness and the level to settle below for yielding 4023.00 by the end of next week.
S&P500 rebounding on the MA50 (1d) but be careful if broken.The S&P500 index is on the first green (1d) candle after an almost test of the MA50 (1d). This level has been holding since March 30th, so consider it a short term buy entry.
The short term pattern is a Megaphone inside a long term Channel Up.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the market price.
2. Sell upon a candle closing under the MA50 (1d).
3. Buy at 3980 (the MA200 1d).
Targets:
1. 4250 (Megaphone top).
2. 3980 (the MA200 1d).
3. 4330 (Resistance 2).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) has a clear long term Support Zone (39.00- 33.50). If the MA50 (1d) breaks, it can be used as additional confirmation to plan your long term buy entry.
Please like, follow and comment!!
Notes:
Past trading plan:
No More Daily UpdatesES still going sideways, 7 weeks now, lol. Not really making any money trading, so I'm only gonna trade when i see something.\
Basically that means I'm only posting updates when things go oversold or overbought, just assume whipsaw or a mixed bag like today otherwise.
Looks like more whipsaw today, lol. Good luck.
Trends hitting resistance going up; Will NVidia Crash through?So the NVidia story could really disrupt the narrative that trends were pushing. Personally, while I like the optimism for NVidia, I can't say I'd want to get in at 230% valuation gain on the year. However, what do I know? I trade S&P Futures, not NVidia stocks.
Ultimately I still think the overbought tech sector can't continue to carry the entire market, and that people are going to cash out at least for the moment some time soon, perhaps as we near the contract settling point of early June.
I attempted to go short at the lower high 30m at the close of yesterday and was stopped out, and I am not short again at the 1hr lower high at 4164.
Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4150 Uptrend (5/24/2023) Lower High
1Hr - 4163 Uptrend (5/25/2023) Lower High
2Hr - 4180 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low
3Hr - 4180 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low
4Hr - 4159 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low
6Hr - 4144 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low
12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
I have no trends other than the Daily timeline in an uptrend at all. So I can't say I'm confident in any longs here. There is an upward trendline that comes in around 4140, so I suppose there is that... but overall I think we head sideways before we head up.
The Short Position;
The most recent short spot is 4164. A break below that trendline at 4140 is a late entry, or wait for things to turn negative at 4126ish. I like my entry point, it is why I stayed out all day yesterday to get this spot.
Economic Data;
Job Market remains robust, GDP slowing but above expectations, PCE showing potential flatline or increased inflationary data, and housing market is still flatlined. None of this makes me jump into the narrative there will be rate cuts coming this month.
Earnings;
NVidia annihilated their earnings expectations and provided some pretty robust forward guidance. That is a continue developing story I will be following. Costco reports after the close.
My sentiment into today;
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Bearish
Medium Term - Neutral
Long Term - Bullish/Neutral
I am Long on the 6E, so I do have some optimism =)
Safe trading! Remember your risk management plan!
Trends maxed to the downside nowSo I did jump into a brief short and got my weekly goal from 4160 to about 4148. Once we hit there we settled in with a 6hr downtrend, which is a higher low and is now also violated. While I feel that this downward momentum is long overdue and should continue, my trading strategy is to trade on trends and currently every single trend is violated except the 30m and 1hr, and those are considerably oversold if they were the funnels to take us lower.
I still think on a medium term we are headed to 4000 at least, trends will dictate we have at least a brief rally here before we can head lower. So with my macroeconomic assessment in conflict with my trading strategy, I think I will stay out for the moment.
Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4204 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 4192 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Lower Low
2Hr - 4180 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low
3Hr - 4180 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low
4Hr - 4159 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low
6Hr - 4144 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low
12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
I mean, it is probably a decent bet to go long here at 4138, although not enough for me to get a warm and fuzzy over it. I think a meltdown is just long overdue and could come in with a vengeance.
The Short Position;
I'd like to see a technical bounce to get a 30m uptrend at least as a short position. Not sure that will happen, but if it does, I plan to be ready.
Economic Data;
Yellen is speaking this morning, then FOMC Minutes and EBC Legarde later this afternoon. All could be market movers.
Overall, my sentiment today (From 4135) is;
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Bullish/Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral
Long Term - Neutral/Bullish
Safe trading, and as always, remember your risk management plan!