My style of trade is to look for similar historical patterns, test to see if the pattern is truly similar and project moves using fibs, bollinger, stoch rsi and ichimoku. Here I just use fibs and ichimoku and determine levels based on historical pattern. You can see how the pattern has traded so far from my calls at stocktwits.com with 100% of calls posted...
We should see some continued movement to the upside to hit around 2365-72 area, around 1.618 retracement of most recent completed move. Then just as quickly as the bulls seem to take charge, I expect a rip down below today's low and ending with a wide range of bottom's before consolidating and bouncing to make new ATH's. I am going to try and play several of these...
Not all that phazed about the interest rate hike it seems. Regression is still bullish for now even if it isn't by all that much.
A break of 2382 to the upside would be quite a bullish sign for me. If we stay below 2375 I favor shorts but will pay close attention to what price action does around 2368 and 2362. Obviously any real drop below 2362 would be really...
This one is a little sloppy, but it meets my criteria to rate as a exponential.
So I expect price to meet the lower A/R line on a drop out of it's exp. path.
...hunt mode on.
P!
After weeks of record gains, the S&P500 is showing cracks in its armor. Will it manage to race up in attempt to reach prior record tops?
I am considering shorts if 2365 breaks or if price bounces off 2372 or 2375 to the downside. It has already bounced off 2375 on Friday, so a clean break through it to the upside next week would be a bullish sign (at least...
1) 2338.75 represents 161.80% Fibonacci extension of the 2134 to 1802.50 move from May of 2015 to February of 2016.
2). Large put/call option open interest at 2250, 2325 and 2350.
3). VIX at sub 11 levels, 14 day RSI at 69, and SPX Shiller P/E @ 28.
4). Trade idea: Short ES_F @ 2335, S/L 2365, target 2255, risk $1,500 to make $4,000 per contract.
The Fib extension going to 2305 will be tested most likely tomorrow. Will be interesting to what happens after it is reached.
All metrics show the market is highly overvalued. However, the continued momentum is keeping the market afoot. The VIX is at the lowest since 2007. Play this carefully.
If we break higher, who knows where we will go.
If we meet...
2 things happened between yesterday and today. The price was necessarily within the range of 225X to discharge the energy that completes wave 4. After that, made a very good rise with 5 waves, now if we see consolidate and correct within the range 2260-2270 and then begin to structure, We could go for 2.29X - 2.230X. Similarly I believe in the idea that we can go...
