We have the red way as the most possible. The blue is the second. However, we would also expect the orange.
In a bull market you want to look at stocks performing better than the parent index
We will be looking for a long entry on the E-mini S&P in the trigger zone. We could get a nice move off the trigger zone. However, we will keep a tight leash on this. Earnings have been dismal at best which may place pressure back on the the market. Remember: NO TRIGGER - NO TRADE!
After two attempts at getting target #2 we failed! Bummer. That's trading and as we've heard many time, "don't be a dick for a tick", we aren't. Price came within 5 points of our target and back away. We believe price is not done testing the down side so we will hold to our plan. These small bounces are on low volume. On the next visit to the recent lows we...
The bulls were squeezed hard on FOMC (and the day after). After many years of trading this is why we stay away from longer term trades until the dust settles. There will be more than enough opportunity to trade. Most of the indexes are at support or have broken their patterns. We expect a small bounce in the $NQ on Monday followed by more selling. An inside...
Epic trading action this week and the adage that "the crowd is usually wrong" was once again demonstrated. This week's sell-off on Monday hit most of our downside targets we posted last week with the exception of the 2 remaining gaps @ 177.48 and 173.22. The likely scenario is that we've found a short term bottom here. A playable trade is for the market to...
The market is continuing her move to the downside. This is why we "WILL NOT ESTABLISH A POSITION ON FRIDAY". We will be watching the Emini and other Indexes for a reversal from the support area on Monday. We WILL NOT enter a trade without a trigger. Knife catching will kill your account. It is not recommended. Be patient!!!
The SPY is overbought, and is about to decline. Seems like a longer term reversal will be in place. This is a natural adjustment to the interest rate environment. Following the link related to this idea, you'll see a further explanation using the Shiller CAPE Index Plot that is frequently updated on his Irrational Exuberance website. My target price is 180 over...
Potential harmonic pattern(s) to play out for completion of the CD leg. Potential gartley and crab patterns with ideal CD targets as indicated on chart. Just sketching out some ideas.
Potential harmonic pattern(s) to play out for completion of the CD leg. Potential gartley and crab patterns with ideal CD targets as indicated on chart. Just sketching out some ideas.
$SPY disposition has not changed even with the failed o/n futs attempt to back test resistance Fri. Since the beginning of the year, I have seen the pace of distribution pick up. I am showing the average trade size of the SPY as a comment after a clean static chart under this post because it reveals professional intent. Until I see significant demand signals at...
$ES_F Turnaround Thursday? Yesterday calculated a likely pro buy bar. Overnight promptly turned around. $2058.50 is resistance.
Take note of this. This is why we tighten stops and take profit.
$SPY average trade size picked up in wks 2 & 3 of February leading to weakening in the S&P 500. Now churning between $213.40 resistance & $207 - 208 support. I would expect much churn back and forth ahead of FED rate (possible tightening) announcements. Likely distribution for many months up here.
$ES_F still above support with churn and holding. Rollover is coming. Pro positioning will be key. #2 Excess supply sig on 2015.02.25. Major macro econ events (FED rates) coming that will affect equities.
SP500 fell lower but gain back all its losses quickly leaving a pin bar on the chart. The trend is bullish which add weights into this trade. My first target would be the resistance above at 2,117. Why I go long: Bullish trend Pin bar with long wick Price rejects the 2,089 support level
The ES is moving slow and forming a nice flag. We have moved our stops up to further protect profits. If the flag breaks to the upside then we will expect the 2120 to get hit. With a good amount of economic news this week (including NFP) we will either get stopped out or hit our target. Either way it has been a good trade.
Despite covering our NQ position we will hold on to the ES for a our second target. We still like the 2120 area. Stops have been pulled tighter just in case this move becomes a head fake. Lesson: manage your trades and don't let a winner turn into a loser!