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My Full ES/SPX Plan for Tmmr Sept. 6thPlan for Friday: **Supports:** 5512, 5502, 5494 (major), 5482 (major), 5476, 5474 (major), 5462, 5455 (major), 5450, 5445 (major), 5438 (major), 5428, 5423, 5414 (major). **Levels to Bid:** - I am still holding my 10% long runner from the **5493** knife carch idea that played out this afternoon. I have added long exposure around **5513**, risking 25% of today’s profits. - We are currently in a new chop range between **5493 and 5554**, with **5519** acting as a key middle point. This has been tested 14 times since yesterday, so it’s no longer fresh but still worth watching for failed breakdowns as always. - **5494** is next major support below, though it’s risky to buy directly after today’s test, especially with the NFP report coming tomorrow morning. Ideally, I'd like to see it flush and recover, perhaps testing **5482** or **5474** before reclaiming for a safer entry. - Below **5492**, I consider this "knife catch mode," meaning supports will likely fail, so I’d be careful with longs, snd treat with smaller size than normal . However, **5455** and **5438** are key levels to watch for buy reactions if price starts flushing down aggressively. **Resistances:** 5519 (major), 5524, 5528-30 (major), 5537, 5543, 5554 (major), 5560, 5566, 5574, 5577, 5582-86 (major), 5593, 5598, 5605 (major). - With NFP tomorrow, we could see a violent rally, and I am not interested in shorting strength in ES. For those looking to short, **5582-86** is a logical spot, where we broke down earlier this week and have yet to backtest. **Buyers Case Tomorrow:** - Currently, ES has an active failed breakdown present. The key is for **5492** to hold, allowing buyers to defend this level and potentially reclaim **5519**. - The path forward for buyers would then be targeting **5528-30**, **5554**, and eventually **5582-86** for a dip and push toward **5630**. **Sellers Case Tomorrow:** - Begins with the failure of **5493**. As i mentioned often though, breakdown trades below this a support are tricky, advanced setups, as most breakdowns trap (80% fail), and these are low-win-rate, high-risk/reward trades. So keep that in mind. Properly reading volume is the key to these type of trades. - Generally, I’d want to see 5493 tested/one more failed breakdown of the zone (ideally down to 5483 that recovers). After this, I’d consider short perhaps 5486. Level to level profit takes, as always, but we likely get down to 5455. In general, We have gone nowhere for two days. My general lean is that 5493 and 5519 remain critical levels. As long as we can keep defending 5493, ES is still in relief bounce/squeeze mode. This would work us up the levels to 5528-30, 5554, then on to 5582-86. If 5492 fails, bulls dropped the ball on this and we need to take another leg down.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
S&P500 The Bull Cycle is still far from over!Six months ago while the market was undecided about whether or not the S&P500 (SPX) rally would continue, we presented a very useful multi-year chart on the 1M time-frame (February 27, see chart below), where we called for an extension of the uptrend, claiming confidently that the 'Bull Cycle is far from over': As you can see those who bought without fear have enjoyed so far more than +15% gains. What's even more impressive is the massive bullish reversal of the August candle, that managed to close the month in green, despite the early aggressive sell-off. This is a strong sign that the rally is far from over, but it's not the only one. The key here, and constitutes our main modification relative to the chart 6 months ago, is that the most accurate sell signal on a cyclical basis has been historically given after the 1M RSI breaks above the 70.00 overbought barrier and posts Lower Highs. This signal has had 100% accuracy in the past 10 years, effectively projecting the 2015, 2018 and 2022 corrections. The 1M RSI also has a Channel Down Resistance to consider but the Lower Highs signal should be top priority for investors to start selling. As a result, we expect the index to surpass the 6000 mark and even approach 6500, before we consider a cyclical selling sequence again. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
5
S&P500 v USD since 2008. Cheap dollar guarantees stock expansionThis is a cross chart analysis between the S&P500 index (SPX) and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) since the 2008 Housing Crisis. Ahead of widely anticipated Fed rate cut next month, it is useful to see how the Dollar has impacted from its perspective the stock market on a multi-year basis. As you can see, the DXY has been trading within a Channel Up since the 2009 Housing Crisis bottom. At the moment it is under the Resistance of the Lower Highs trend-line (dashed) and a rate cut should apply even stronger selling pressure and keep it under. There is still some wayt to go until it hits the bottom of the Channel Up again. We believe that the stock market is at the point where it finishes the recovery phase (blue Arc) and will enter the expansion phase (green Channel Up), at the beginning of next year. As a result, a rate cut and as a matter of fact a series of rate cuts by the Fed, will do wonders on S&P500, giving investors steady long-term opportunities to buy low and sell high within a strictured Channel. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
7
S&P500 Why the volatility shouldn't scare you.Five months ago (March 21, see chart below), we published a comparison analysis on the S&P500 index (SPX), warning of a medium-term correction but at the same time setting a long-term 6500 Target: As you can see, the fractal comparison of March 2024 with March 2017 worked very well and this is why the recent July - August correction shouldn't scare you. The 2022 - 2024 sequence continues to replicate to a solid degree the 2015 - 2017 period, which after holding both the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and testing and bouncing on the 1.786 Fibonacci extension, it rallied towards the 3.0 Fib. Check also how similar the 1W RSI sequences are within the two fractals. At the moment we are just past the RSI Double Bottom formation (August 14 2017 and August 05 2024 respectively), which should initiate a rally that will peak deep into the overbought zone in Q1 2025. As a result, our long-term Target of 6500 is intact, and as the title says, the volatility shouldn't scare you and make you diverge from the long-term goal and perspective. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
2
ES/SPX Levels & Targets Aug 26thOn Thursday/Friday, I called the 5588-93 buy zone with a target of 5653, and ES has hit it four times since Friday morning. As of now: No changes—I'm still holding my runners from Friday mentioned in plan. The 5642 level, which has been tested twice but remains weak, is the key support. If we can hold above that, I’m eyeing 5672 and the 5687-90 range as potential targets. If 5642 breaks, I’ll look to sell around 5630. Full Plan for today was posted Sunday Morning
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
Full ES Trading Plan for Aug 26thPlan For Monday: supports are 5642, 5630 (major), 5620, 5616, 5612 (major), 5605 (major), 5598, 5594, 5588-86 (major), 5576, 5572, 5566 (major), 5560, 5547, 5534-38 (major). Levels to Bid: • Still holding my runner from the 5588-93 long Friday night and letting it ride. I added another 25% around 5647 late in the day because my cost basis is low, so as long as we’re above break-even, I’m holding. • It should be clear by now that ES is setting up a new consolidation range between 5659 and 5588-92. This range is wide and could become a bit of a battleground. Must take profits level by level. Overtrade within this range, the market will eat your lunch. • Everything in this range is choppy with poor follow-through, so it’s best to wait for failed breakdowns, trade level to level, leave runners on, and stop overtrading. Since Tuesday, the structure looks like a “megaphone” or early bull flag. There are several critical levels in this range that have been heavily tested, so you’ll need to be nimble. • First Level Down: 5630. It’s been worked a lot, so I’ll watch the volume in real-time. Ideally, I’d want to see it flush and reclaim, maybe down to 5620 before considering entries. • This only applies if we haven’t broken out of the 5659 range first. If we break to new highs, then any new longs below are off the table. • Below 5630: We’ve got the 5612 and 5605 cluster. Watch for failed breakdowns of Friday's low, and if we can hit 5605 or so and reclaim, I’ll be looking to go long. If things are looking particularly bearish, I might wait for 5612 to recover before jumping in. • If 5588 fails: I’ll probably be flipping to shorts and won’t be interested in longs until around 5534-38. Resistances: • 5654, 5659 (major), 5662, 5672, 5679, 5687-90 (major), 5694, 5705 (major), 5714, 5720 (major), 5730 (major), 5737, 5746, 5749 (major), 5758, 5770 (major), 5778, 5785 (major). • As usual, I have a strict “no shorting strength” rule when we’re in an uptrend. I just don’t do it. For those who are into that kind of risky play, 5659 has been tested a lot and has worked for shorts a few times already, so it’s probably losing reliability. • Next risky short spot: 5687-90, then 5730 and 5785 if you’re feeling brave. Buyers Case: • I’m seeing 5588 to 5659 as a chop zone now, so the “buyers case” is the default as long as 5588 keeps holding. With this structure intact, I see the 5588-5659 range as just another bullish continuation pattern. • Remember, in an uptrend, most traders assume all structures will break to the upside—because 80% of the time, they do. I’m not trying to be a hero and predict which 20% will fail; I’ll just short when one does. It's literally that simple. Til then, you stay with the trend. • The buyers case for Monday would be more range filling, followed by a breakout targeting 5673, then 5687-90. After that, it’s probably on to all-time highs, with 5785 being the next big magnet. • Ultra bullish scenario: ES doesn’t dip at all and goes straight up. This would likely see ES flagging below 5659 and above 5630, maybe without even hitting 5642 first. I’d consider adding in this case, especially if we probe under 5642 and recover, but it’s hard to get too specific without seeing how things play out Sunday night/Monday morning. Sellers Case: • Starts with a break below 5588. I’d need to see a final bounce/failed breakdown/reaction at 5588. After this plays out and its clear there is minimal demand left at the level, I will be shorting. Perhaps 5583 trigger. Level to level profit takes. In general, defer to the trend as always. 5659 to 5588 = pure chop. We can fill this out in many ways. As long as this structure is intact, we push to 5672, 5687-90 next. Maybe a dip there, then on to 5705, 5730. If 5588 fails, we finally get a short trigger and start the leg down to 5538.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
Resend: Full ES Plan For Today // Sent Out YesterdayPlan for Friday: Supports are: 5593-5588 (major), 5582, 5572, 5567 (major), 5560, 5555, 5540-45 (major), 5528 (major), 5519, 5512 (major), 5502. Tomorrow is the Jackson Hole speech at 10am, and it could be as unpredictable as FOMC or CPI days, so trade cautiously. First off, size down—there's no point in risking big money in a market driven by algos and noise. Losing money on a known volatile day is a choice. Most professional traders have already called it a week and are skipping tomorrow—take note. Professionals focus on preserving profits, while retail traders often chase quick gains. This difference in mindset is why pros size down or stay out, while retail traders often lose money. Expect traps tomorrow—like with CPI/FOMC days, the first few moves might be fakeouts. It’s smart to wait for failed breakdowns rather than diving in. Also, avoid overtrading. Stick to level-to-level trades because price action could get complex and hard to predict. My approach will be to take one trade and protect it, only risking profits on a second trade if necessary. Tomorrow is all about preserving capital for me, and I’m only risking 10% of this week's profits. Keep in mind that last year’s Jackson Hole reaction was very bullish, but 2022’s was extremely bearish. Be ready for anything. First support is 5593-88, which we’ve been holding for a couple of hours. I’ll watch for flushes and reclaims of this zone. Given that it’s Jackson Hole day, if the market wants to sell off, it could blow through multiple supports, so I’ll be patient and wait for failed breakdowns before considering any longs. 5567 is the next support down, but I’m not interested in catching a falling knife tomorrow. Below that, 5540-45 is another level to watch. On a regular day, I’d look to buy here, but tomorrow I’ll wait for reactions before making any moves. Resistances are 5604 (major), 5610, 5618-20 (major), 5623, 5630 (major), 5636, 5643, 5653 (major), 5661 (major), 5668, 5672, 5678, 5685 (major). I don’t short in uptrends, especially on Jackson Hole day. If you’re into risky trades, 5685 and 5705 might be worth considering, but it’s not my style. Buyers case tomorrow, even after 11 days of rallying, a pullback would be normal and healthy. Remember, pullbacks in ES tend to be sharp drops, not slow grinds. Big picture, buyers are still in control above the breakout around 5450. Short-term, as long as we’re above 5588-93, they could push higher, targeting 5630 and 5652, with potential new highs after that. Sellers case: it starts with a break below 5588-93, but be cautious—Jackson Hole days are tricky and full of traps. Ideally (on a normal day), I’d want to see perhaps one more bounce and/or failed breakdown here. After this, I am short 5584 or so. Level to level profit takes. In general, Its Jackson Hole day, and the market will be on a mission to take your money. Size down. I don’t like “predicting” ahead of a day like this (since its impossible) but if I had to give a lean, its always to defer to the trend. As long as 5588-93 holds, we can simply resume up back to 5630, 5653. Perhaps final reaction, then breakout to 5685+. Sell<5588.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
S&P500 This is how it will reach 6000.The S&P500 index (SPX) has recovered almost all of its losses since its July 16 All Time High (ATH), firmly establishing again itself above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the usual short-term Support level during uptrends. The underlying pattern is a Channel Up and every time the index breaks above a former Resistance level (such as the current ATH), it consolidates for a few days and retests it as a Support, before starting the next wave of the Bullish Leg. As a result, we expect the index to break above 5670 soon and then turn sideways, sustained above it for 1-2 weeks. By the end of October we are targeting for a 6000 Higher High at the top of the long-term Channel Up pattern. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
2
AAPLE VS NASDAQ. THE FRUITY COMPANY AHEAD OF EARNINGS CALLConsumer tech manufacturer Apple (AAPL) is due to report earnings next Thursday, February 1. Notably, waning iPhone demand out of China has worried investors as Apple had a rocky 2024 start, dealing with several stock downgrades. Some of analysts slowed down its expectations for Apple and the biggest tailwinds and risks for its various devices. "As far as those businesses are concerned, the only one that will probably show growth is Mac because some of the new products that they rolled out and easy comps from a year ago, you will probably see some sharp declines specifically on the iPad side of things...," they note. The main graph is a ratio, between Apple stocks price NASDAQ:AAPL and overall NASDAQ:NDX Nasdaq-100 Big Tech index. It's been a while since Buffett put the money into Fruity Company in Q2'16, and since that Apple stock outperformed the whole index, appr. by 150 percent over the next 6 years. By the way, Apple stocks as well as Nasdaq-100 index hit the bottom, in early Q4'22 and since that, Apple underperforms the whole Big Tech Index, totally. Basically NASDAQ:AAPL losses against NASDAQ:NDX further, over the past 12-15 months later they both hit the bottom. In this time the major break down happens in massive reversed Head-and-Shoulders ctructure, just ahead of Q4'23 Earnings call. This is the bottom line, I'm avoid the Fruity Company ahead of Earnings Call. Happy trading to everyone. See y'all later.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Pandorra