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#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 2.16 - 2.21Last Week : Sunday Globex again opened on a gap down just like previous week but this time it opened right at lower VAH and got a push back into over 6074 - 54 Edge. Holding over 6050s and inside/over the Edge meant stability for the market which brough in more buying but as we can see it took us a whole week of consolidating under VAL before we were able to push into upper Value towards the end of the week. We pushed into the Mean right up against our previous Supply area and that served as good resistance to keep us in small balance to finish the week on Friday. This Week : Tricky spot we find ourself in this week, on higher time frames like Monthly we are having inside month, weekly we are still holding sideways/up trend inside this 6230s - 5950s balance but one thing to note is we have mostly been back and forth between this balances Mean area and the low, so far dips under the low kept getting bought but we are not really getting any upside or holds over the Mean areas which could mean no acceptance inside it to cause continuation towards the top. On Daily TF we have been holding over between the Daily upper Edge of 6073 - 43 and upper Daily VAL of 6144 - 25 where we found balance to end the week on Friday. Going into this week we are again inside the Value of this 6074 - 6195 Hourly's range and there are few things we can watch from here. If the market has truly accepted inside this range then we may hold inside the Value which will mean ranges will tighten up and we look to balance inside Current Intraday Range of 6155 - 6114, we have supply over 6144 so any pushes over it towards 6155 could find their way back into the Mean and we could see covering under 6125 over VAL. BUT something we have to watch out for is IF we again fail inside this Value and get into/under VAL this will be our first signal for a failure which can bring in weakness towards lower Edge, IF that happens and we find ourself inside lower Edge under 6074 - 60s that would confirm the failure and may bring in more weakness for market to try and go find Value lower, we do have lots of HTF stops lined up under us which would keep bringing weakness if we start taking them. We don't have any market moving data until Fed on Wednesday which could mean a slow start to the week and we must be careful forcing for downside IF we are holding over VAL because that keeps us stable. Of course IF we do again open on a gap down like we did last 2 weeks then that could change things BUT this time around IF we do then we need to be careful looking for a full return back like we had last 2 times. For more strength out of this Value we would want price first show us holds over 6144 AND find stronger buying that can take us into/over upper VAH, until this happens we really need to watch out over 6140 as we may finish this month either inside +/- month inside this Value under 6160s OR since its our 3rd month in these areas without any upside, we could see size sell us back down towards Monthly balance lows which are down at 5950s.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Recap: CL and ES Weekly Plan analysis & Key LevelsNYMEX:CL1! CME_MINI:ES1! In this trading trading view blog we will refer to our February 3, 2025, weekly trading plans. Our main idea for ES futures was to get long above yearly open, also our key LIS (Line in Sand). And our main idea for CL futures was to stay short below February monthly open targeting mcVAL and then waiting for an opportunity to get long at our key bullish support zone. Below we explain our thoughts behind these ideas and how we choose our key levels and the process to create our plan. ES Trade Idea: Key Levels and Strategies Amid Macro Uncertainty : From our ES trade plan, scenario 1 played out. The line in sand for long trades was Key LIS/Yearly open. Click on the link above to see how this played out! Our key levels for the trade idea noted in the blog were: (mcVAH) micro composite value area high: 6,134.25 Key LIS/Yearly Open: 5,949.25 (mcVAL) micro composite value area low: 5,914.25 (CVAH) Composite Value Area High: 5,924 mcVAH held as an area of initial resistance. Our neutral zone at 6,068.25 - 6,051.50 acted as a zone for pullback after initial push higher. The remaining week was choppy with some days more volatile and playing out per our scenario 1 in our trading plan. CL Trade Idea: Key Levels & Strategies Amid Volatility: From our CL trade plan, scenario 1 also played out. Why we favored this as scenario 1 was due to rejection confirmed at January 2025 mid range. The provided a good short opportunity below Jan 2025 mid or February monthly open towards our key levels as specified in the trading plan. We mentioned the following key levels in last week’s plan. Micro Composite Value Area High (mCVAH) January 2025: 76.00 January 2025 mid- range: 74.96 February Monthly Open: 74.14 Micro Composite Value Area Low (mCVAL) January 2025: 71.82 Yearly Open: 70.52 2024 Mid- Range: 70.40 mCVAL provided a good target for short trades, while Yearly open and 2024 Mid-range confluence at our key bull support provided a good spot to initiate the long trade idea. Following a consistent process can help traders stick to a trading approach that can help them achieve consistency. Losses are an inherent part of trading, executing the trade plan also involves weighing which scenario will play out on the hard right edge in real- time. However, our market analysis blogs are aimed to educate traders, showing whatever their methodology or approach, consistency in preparation and having a roadmap of important price levels will help them distinguish between getting caught in noise versus important areas to engage with markets.
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
ES Trade Idea: Key Levels and Strategies Amid Macro UncertaintyCME_MINI:ES1! ES futures opened with a gap down on Sunday. With numerous macro headlines, President Donald Trump’s comments on the Fed’s decision last week, and ongoing trade war tariffs, traders may struggle to distinguish what truly matters for the markets from the noise. In our opinion, do not let macro headlines cloud your judgement. Have a trade plan and be ready to adjust with market conditions and volatility. One way to mitigate risk is by utilizing micro CME contracts , allowing for more precise risk management during volatile market conditions. Additionally, you can participate in the CME and TradingView paper trading competition, giving you the opportunity to test your skills in The Leap without risking real money. Remember, it's NFP week, and several other key economic data releases are also on the calendar. In our view, it is important to zoom out and reduce key levels on your charts to ones that are significant. Key Levels: Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan. (mcVAH) micro composite value area high: 6,134.25 Key LIS/Yearly Open: 5,949.25 (mcVAL) micro composite value area low: 5,914.25 (CVAH) Composite Value Area High: 5,924 Scenario 1: Long above Key LIS Our key LIS is still Yearly open as it was discussed in last week’s idea. We are looking for long trade setups at this level. Scenario 2: Short below Key LIS If the price moves lower and holds below a key level, we will look for short trade setups targeting our green support zones on the chart from mcVAL and CVAH confluence.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by EdgeClear
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 2.02 - 2.07.2025Last Week : Globex opened inside VAL under the Weak stops from previous sessions that we have market off which signaled weakness, under 6100 market started taking out lower stops and key areas which gave a big flush into lower Value during ON hours to start the week but we ran out of selling after looking below lower VAL and rotated out of Value from there. RTH Session did not bring anymore size selling, instead we were able to hold above Value take in all the Supply and move back into/above upper Edge which brough stability and pushed us into 6114 - 064 Intraday Range where we found balance. End of week price made a push into upper Value again but the move was done during ON lower Volume hours and once we hit the bigger area of supply/where we previously found bigger sellers over 6144 the whole push came apart and gave us another move under VAL into the Edge where we closed right at a big area without really breaking under. This Week : This week is really tricky to try and call because we have new month starting, we had some news over the weekend which has made a lot of people bearish or at least think that we should be bearish and either open on gap down or continue lower, we have seen strong selling from above areas which probably trapped buyers to give us more weakness BUT as much as I like to cheer for the downside and a good correction most of the time as I am a short seller, we have to be careful here because we are at important HTF areas which if we don't get the needed volume to stay under could bring stability and continue to give us balancing action over them. We will have to see what we do on the open tonight and during ON sessions to really get a better picture but we can have a plan and keep things in mind that IF they start happening then we can be ready. Daily TF for now is still in uptrend after a failed correction in mid January and we are just grinding over smaller Daily MA with buying interest running out over 6100s which is giving us this sideways/selling action, weekly TF also grinding over its smaller MA and has closed right around weekly balance mid area after failing to hold under its low which is in 940s this could mean that we may potentially continue holding and grinding/sideways with weakness until we see some bigger change. Daily Edge top is around 6070 - 40s we would need to either see a push that can close under 50s to signal acceptance back in lower HTF Range or a push under with continuation to/through lower VAH which can then bring in more sellers and give us continuation towards lower targets at VAL/Edge and if things get really ugly to push us through 933 - 913 Edge from where we need to watch out for further continuation towards our Previous Distribution Balance. On the other hand we need to be careful forcing the short side under 6060-50s unless market can clearly show us that it wants to be under, if it does not then we can watch for us to stay inside Current Intraday Range where we could balance and maybe tighten up the ranges as things have been pretty wild, if this will be the case then we could see stronger sells coming from areas closer to above VAL and from inside/above it, weakness from VAL can continue until we can push into Value and start balancing around the Mean area without getting back under 6114.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Is This Sell-Off Another "Buy the Dip" Opportunity?Macro Update Index futures sold off during overnight trading as market sentiment turned risk-off. Newswires reported that, after Colombia denied entry to two U.S. deportation aircraft, President Trump announced emergency tariffs of 25% on all Colombian imports, with plans to increase them to 50% next week. Additionally, The Wall Street Journal noted growing support among President Trump's advisors to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico as early as Saturday to initiate negotiations. Meanwhile, Chinese startup DeepSeek is challenging U.S. dominance in the AI sector by introducing a low-cost model rivaling OpenAI's o1. This development may intensify geopolitical and economic tensions. Adding to the unease, Chinese Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs missed expectations. Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.1, below the forecast of 50.1. Markets in China and most of Asia will remain closed starting Tuesday for the Lunar New Year holiday, which could lead to lower regional liquidity. Looking ahead, the week features several high-impact events: Wednesday, January 29: Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the first FOMC press conference of 2025. Bank of Canada interest rate decision. Thursday, January 30th: ECB interest rate decision Preliminary Q4 GDP data (QoQ). Friday, January 31st: Core PCE Price Index (Dec). ES Futures Update This week is packed with critical data releases, and macroeconomic developments are having a stronger influence on short-term price fluctuations. It’s an important time to step back, zoom out, and identify key levels of interest to engage with the market. Despite the overnight sell-off and heightened volatility, the auction process remains orderly. Managing risk is paramount, as losses are an inherent part of trading. Key Observations: ES futures bounced off the yearly open in overnight trading, marking it as our critical Line in the Sand (LIS). If prices stay above the LIS, markets are likely to consolidate further this week, with FOMC and other data releases determining the next move. A break below the yearly open could open the door to short trade opportunities targeting the support zones identified on the chart. Scenario 1: Wait and See Allow the market to digest the sell-off. Look for long setups from the LIS. Key events like the FOMC decision will likely influence market direction, but unexpected negative news could overshadow these data releases. Scenario 2: Sustained Sell-Off If a catalyst triggers further downside, the market may test support levels near 5,750 and 5,800. Below the LIS, short setups may be viable if supported by news or price action that aligns with a bearish trade thesis. For traders looking to manage risk more effectively, consider using Micro E-mini S&P 500 contracts , which are 1/10th the size of standard ES contracts. This week’s data releases, geopolitical developments, and tariff announcements are likely to shape market sentiment. Stay cautious and adapt to new information as it unfolds. Risk management remains the cornerstone of success in volatile markets. Not confident to incorporate these into your trading plan? Why not incorporate our trade ideas to your trade plan in TradingView and CME’s paper trading competition; “The Leap”.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
2
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 1.26 - 1.31.25Last Week : Last week we opened over the Value of 6054 - 5933 HTF Range and were able to hold over, when we got over the Edge that brought in more buying that gave us a push into new HTF Value of 6195 - 6074 Range where we have sold off from before after contract roll and we closed Friday with a rejection from a push into VAH. This Week : Last week of the month, new president is in, what can we expect this week ? Well looking at the structure we had a perfect rejection from the top on Friday which of course doesn't exactly have to be a top but if it were one it would be a very good looking one on the Daily TF if it was one. Going into this week IF we can't get over VAH and hold over 6160 - 70 to build supply to take higher over upper Edge then we could see balancing inside the Intraday Range of current Value to build supply and digest the move we had last week that is IF we have truly accepted in this 6195 - 6074 HTF Range. IF we have not found the needed acceptance here and we start getting continuation into VAL we have Poor/Weak RTH Lows there at 6111 which we could aim for, If taken out that could give us more selling to at least fill the Gap we created into 6093 area. From there we would watch if we absorb all the selling and can get back into above Value or if we can't and we hold under 6100 then we could see more selling to push into lower Edge and IF we happen to get inside it under 6070 then moves back towards lower VAH/Value are not out of the question as long as we can get through 6050s
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
ES Futures Trade Idea - Trump Inauguration MLK weekMacroeconomic News: US markets were closed yesterday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. ES, NQ and YM futures saw mild gains yesterday, RTY futures outperformed. As the 47th president of the United States, Donald Trump took the oath of office promising to protect the border, address inflation, and restructure trade policies. In addition to withdrawing from the Paris Climate Treaty and signing orders to cancel 78 Biden-era acts, he also started energy production reforms, such as drilling for oil in the Arctic. Trump discussed agreements over TikTok ownership, threatened global tariffs, and suggested imposing duties on the EU, Canada, and Mexico. He urged a speedy conclusion to the conflict in Ukraine and gave top priority to evaluating China's adherence to trade agreements. Trump stopped importing oil from Venezuela, emphasized energy independence, and lifted sanctions on Israeli settlers. The goal of bold measures is to put American workers and security first. Following yesterday's strong selling pressure, which was brought on by the announcement that President Trump would not impose tariffs on the first day of his presidency, the dollar is now showing signs of recovery. Nevertheless, Trump's statement that he is considering 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and believes they would be implemented on February 1st shattered trade confidence overnight. In our opinion, buy the rumor-sell the fact, sell the rumor-buy the fact, will likely be a key theme during Trump’s presidential term. ES Futures update: As we can see in the chart above, ES futures are currently above our Line in the Sand, Yearly Open at 5,949.25. ES futures also made a higher low on Jan 13th, 2025 compared to Nov 4th, 2024 swing low. ES futures formed a bull flag after the Dec 18th, 2024 FOMC announcement. Price has now broken out of the bull flag channel. Key Levels to Watch Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan. Jan 6th Weekly Hi: 6,068.25 Jan 13th Weekly Hi: 6,051.50 Yearly Open | LIS (Line in Sand): 5,949.25 Resistance R1: 6,105 - 6,115 Resistance R2: 6,145 - 6,155 All time highs: 6,184.50 Scenario 1: Breakout continuation Price has broken out of bull flag formation from the Dec 18th, 2024 FOMC announcement. Break above current area of consolidation marked in Blue zone forming the area between Jan 6th and Jan 13th Weekly Highs. Price heads towards R1, R2 and R3 targets. Scenario 2: Further consolidation Price further consolidates this week awaiting a catalyst to trend higher next week. Strong earnings season propels US futures and stocks higher. We encourage you to monitor these levels closely and incorporate them into your trade planning. Share your thoughts or insights on these key levels in the comments below.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by EdgeClear
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 1.20 - 1.24Market closed outside of Value after failing under 6074 - 54 HTF Edge. We are set to open inside 6064 - 23 Intraday Range unless market gaps under/over after Mondays Holiday but if we open inside it then that tells us we are over Value and there are two thing we can do here, continue grinding/balancing inside the Intraday Range and try to push towards/into above Edge ? Or do we find more selling over Value that would bring us back into/under VAH, if we get under VAH we would be under Daily Stops so that could trigger moves towards the Mean/VAL of the range. If we do get back inside the Value we could find support and holds around it BUT careful if we take out out and get under Value, that can bring in more weakness for lower targets where we would watch for any continuation. IF the strength from last week stays, for us to see any bigger prices out of this HTF Range we would need to hold over VAH and have a strong push into or over the above Edge that would stay over, until then we have December supply trapped over 6050 - 74 so we may stay under this area and most of December Supply is valued over 930 - 70s and we have January month end approaching which means if more size needs to lighten the bag that could trigger some lower destinations.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 1.12 - 1.17.2025Last Week : Sunday Globex opened inside the Mean of Previous HTF Range and got a push to VAH which held into RTH that brought in more buying to make a run at the Ranges Edge where we found Supply, for strength to remain we needed to stay and build over VAH instead we build supply at/under VAH and when buying ran out we made a move for VAL. From weekly plan this is what we were looking for a push back under 978 - 73 Intraday Edge to give us sells back towards the Edge where we saw covering and support which gave us holds for a couple days but over all we were ablet to stay under VAL and build supply which kept signaling weakness, Friday we built up enough supply to fully break through the Edge and this time around with more supply above us we had enough selling to get into new Value. Area over swing stops provided good covering which gave us a push back out of Value but we can see that selling was strong enough to get back into the Mean area of the Range to close just above those stops. This Week : This week we are set up open inside the Value of new/previous HTF Range of 913 - 792, We are inside 882 - 841 Intraday Range, Under the Daily Mean of 913 - 896 with now more supply trapped over it. The area where and way we closed Friday is signaling that we should see continuation to the current move or at least more weakness going into this week, as long as we hold under VAH under 5888 - 5900 we can continue with weakness towards current Intraday Edge lows at 841 - 36 which would also take out the swing swing stops under us to give us more selling to test lower VAL and possibly see sells under it towards Previous Distribution Balance we had which was a big cost basis area above Daily Edge that we consolidated at for some time before making new ATH 10.14. To me this was our real ATH and possibly a top area as everything after that was more of Election Speculations and Momentum which died out and now brough us back under that ATH. Also mentioned last week that we had a big failure over Daily Edge which usually targets previous daily areas and so far we have visited Daily Mean which Friday we finally broke and closed under and tagged Daily VAL which is this 846 - 828, Daily lower Edge is 754 - 24 which has some Poor/Weak Lows and a contract roll gap under. Daily Edge and Gap under will still remain good targets going forward but need be careful as those are Daily targets and can take time for us to get there, current VAL and areas under it could provide good enough covering holds and new buying when prices hold to give us enough support to not continue for bigger targets right away but instead balance and build more supply which we will need to go and fill those areas out when we are ready. Over all we are looking for more weakness going into this week but we have to be careful as we have that Previous Distribution balance at 800 - 750 area which had 2 weeks of consolidation that can keep us up and see covering at or over it. For bigger moves out of this HTF Range we would either need to hold and build supply under VAL before taking out the Edge like we did last week above or we would need strong volume that can break VAL and another strong push that can fully break lower Edge to hold under 780 - 70s, until then we may stay inside new current HTF Range and balance around its Value and areas out of Value without accepting under/over Edges. For strength to return or to think higher prices out of this Range we would need to be able to hold over VAH and see a good push in above Edge that could hold inside it without coming back in, until then Higher Time Frames have been transitioning into a correction mode so far Daily is in correction as long as we keep holding under 960s and Weekly as well showing signs of corrections starting but it still needs time to set up which can take time so we have to be patient especially after big moves already taking place.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 1.05 - 1.10.25Last Week : Sunday Globex opened inside VAH of 6054 - 5933 HTF Range after a Friday failure over upper Edge. Failures over/under HTF Edges usually provide good reaction back to previous Value and Edges which is what we got to start the week as we got a move from VAH to VAL and pushed out to tag lower Edge but the whole move pretty much happened during pre market hours so when we opened up we didn't get continuation, instead we got balancing/covering with weakness since we had supply that was coming out from above, we balanced most of the week between the lower Edge and Value of the range until we built up enough supply to flush it through the Edge, the sell through was strong but we only had enough supply to tag lower VAH where buying came in to push us back inside the Edge. Since it was end of the week we expected more covering to be done, since the Edge held pre market without any more size selling that brought in more covering and momentum buying to push back into our current HTF Ranges Value to close the week. This Week: Last weeks close may seem strong but we have to keep in mind that currently our structure is going through a change on higher time frames, for now Daily is slowly transitioning into a possible longer correction after failing and building supply over the Daily Edge which was 640s - 70s area ( Remember Failures over Edges bring us back to Value AND could target previous Edges, since its daily it can take time to get there but Daily VAL is 846 - 28 and Daily lower Edge is 754 - 24) We are holding under Smaller and Bigger MAs and they are getting closer for a cross which will be signaling a correction lower, seems like this time around we are in for a longer/slower correction that can take time to play out and time to end. Last few weeks with failures over the Daily Edge we have been getting moves back to Daily Value and going back and forth between it's VAH and Mean areas with dips under the Mean that were bought. Daily VAH is around 987 - 67 Area and going into this week if we can't show stability over it by holding over/between 5993 - 6007 areas and get tests at/over above VAH then we would look for price to return under the VAH back inside 973 - 932 Intraday Range and possibly start holding under Daily VAH. Lower Edge 993 - 913 may provide enough support for us to continue balancing over it but we have to keep in mind that holding under current HTF Ranges VAL and building more supply at/over the Edge can bring in more weakness and if we get through Intraday area of 932 - 27 with more supply above that can give us sells towards lower VAH again and possibly this time around we can try to get inside lower Value again, we have swing stops to watch out for under 850s which if taken could provide more selling towards lower VAL and possibly moves out of it IF we will have enough supply. We do have that area of 800 - 750 and next Edge below us which was our distribution balance for some time at one point, so we have to watch out what we do that as we may hold above it or price may want to try and get inside it again as that is an area where it found balance before. Of course all of this we have to watch area by area for continuation as we may keep getting buying at and under current Edge but things are set up for these moves if we want to go at least for lower Value but we MUST take out key areas for any continuation as price may find balance around current Value and stay in this range if we are not ready to move yet. For price to remain stable we would need to be able to hold inside current Value without getting back under VAL that could keep us stable enough to balance inside the Value in current intraday range of 6018 - 78 which so far we haven't showed acceptance in, and for any strength beyond that we would need a strong push over above VAH and hold over it to start building new cost basis, even if we get moves to or over current VAH it's a place to be careful as we can keep seeing sells from there back inside Value.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 12.22 - 12.27/24Last Week : Last week we had contract roll and Fed week, for over 2 weeks price kept holding around/over 6074 - 54 HTF Edge which also happened to be Daily Edge as well which makes it a significant area. We kept holding at/above it but we would not get any pushes or acceptance inside new Value and instead we kept seeing sells from every push attempt into new VAL. Contract roll came again giving us a gap in prices which put new contract inside the Value of new HTF Range where we were able to balance while waiting for the Fed. After the Fed announcement we got a sell down towards the lower Edge and filled the Roll Gap we created, but we also took out the Edge fully which had over 2 weeks of Supply built up over it and it caused more aggressive selling which gave us a HTF Edge to Edge move to finish up that Day which put back in 6074 - 5913 HTF Range where we have previously found acceptance in. Thursday we didn't get continuation under the Edge, instead we had selling from Ranges Value which closed right into the Edge. Friday Pre-Market price got under the Edge and made a push for lower Value but we didn't quite make it to take the swing stops which were under 5860s and instead we ran out of supply, rotated back above accepted Ranges Edge and pretty much got short covering before the weekend/holidays to take us all the way back up to the upper Edge where we failed under with price settling back inside Ranges Mean. This Week : We have last week of the year pretty much, Holidays coming up and we had some crazy moves up and down last week that gave us big ranges after we spent quite a bit of days going back and forth inside smaller ranges, so what can we expect this week ? It could definitely be a tricky week, as there are always chances for more continuation to the downside, chances to keep rotating higher so we have to be on the look out, but from what structure and price so far is telling us is that we have found acceptance back inside 6074 - 5913 HTF Range, we are back under Daily Edge with Supply still above us, with shorter Holiday weeks coming and end of year, will we get more crazy action or will things possibly slow down again as we will have much fomo from the flush down and from the rally up that was probably missed by many. Price is currently back inside 6023 - 5973 Intraday Range where it found some balance before, IF we don't get the volume selling or buying then we could see price to balance inside/around this Intraday Range and stay around this current HTF Ranges Value, after failing at VAH we could still target moves towards VAL and if there is enough Volume we could even see it try to push out of VAL but we have to be careful because if we don't find acceptance on pushes over VAH or under VAL then we could continue seeing price come back inside the Value and continue balancing around it. Careful for ranges to become smaller again which means its not time to be greedy and focus on good entries and smaller profit targets. If we do get acceptance over or under the Value we would need to see good moves into or through the HTF Edges for us to see attempts to move into different Ranges Values.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 12.08 - 12.13.24Last Week : Last week Sunday Globex opened with a sell from the Edge towards VAH of lower HTF Range but we didn't have enough selling to get back into Previous Value where we have seen acceptance in previous week, instead we held over 6030s and pushed inside the Edge, as noted from last weeks prep to see higher prices we needed to stay around the Edge and hold over 6050s, I was thinking that this 6074 - 54 Edge would keep the price in but instead we were able to hold the Edge, got a failed breakdown from it on Tuesday RTH and a Wednesday Globex push over the Edge which couldn't get back inside during RTH Open, this move put us in new HTF Range and inside 6065 - 6115 Intraday Range. We finished the week with some sells from above VAL area and price holding above the Edge around VAL. This Week : As noted last week price action has changed, Volume has died out and it is really time to tighten things up and lower expectations from moves until we see new change. Going into this week we are inside 6070s - 6200s +/- HTF Range, we have buying over the lower Intraday Range and over HTF Edge, we have selling at VAL and so far attempts to push into above Value are not strong enough to give us a good break and hold over instead they find profit taking on every push. Holding over lower Edge implies stability and price can continue balancing over those areas, we can't expect too much selling from here unless we can get back under lower Intraday Edge and find Volume to get under 6050s, but we also have to be careful on the long side as we are now in distribution at higher prices on lower volume which means buyers don't have to keep chasing price up too much higher just yet. We could see price to continue holding and grinding around this new VAL area with attempts to push into new Value, inside the Value we have to be careful as until we accept inside its Mean and start transacting over it then we could continue seeing the price hold under the Mean and come out of Value towards VAL/under. I would watch for possible balancing in these 6090s - 6120s areas until we show acceptance over/under that would want to continue over the Mean or stay under lower Intraday Edge.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 12.01 - 12.06.24Last Week : Last week market opened up inside the Value of this 930s - 650s HTF Range, beginning of the week we were able to stay around the Value and balance inside this 620 - 970s Intraday Range with pushes out of Value that got sold back in. Wednesday again opened over Value and sold back in with RTH Volume but closed right under VAH to finish regular trading week. Shortened holiday sessions didnt have much supply so we were able to hold over VAH which build up stops that got squeezed in upper Edge once end of week covering came in on Friday. This Week : This is technically the first tag of this new HTF Range Edge since our first push towards it failed just shy of it. More often than not first tests of big areas like an Edge provide a reaction in the oppositive direction, of course we could say the push that gave us selling from this area the first time was it and that this time we may hold long or continue but because this move was during shortened holiday sessions we need to watch out with looking for continuation from here unless market can hold over 640s - 50s, stay around/inside the Edge AND get through 670s with Edge top and start holding over it. Until this happens I would be looking for us to either try and balance around this Current Intraday Range of 620s - 670 which we pushed into Friday or if the buying just pushes us up during lighter volume days and wont stick come next week then we can see a move back towards VAH and if we can't hold over it then its possible to see continuation back inside the Value/Mean and if we have enough supply a push for lower VAL. We have HTF stops built up there under 970s if that area gets taken it could bring in more selling to give us an Edge to Edge move from bottom to the top, if we can't take the stops at VAL then we could continue to balance inside this Value building Supply. This is new month and last month of the year, will we start our first week with a sell towards the buyers who are under 940s or do we have enough buying to give us a hold over Value and try to test new one ? On Daily TF we are still inside a 5720s - 6070s Range and currently we are inside Daily Edge, if we can't get through it then possible return towards Daily VAH which is in 980 - 60s Area.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 11.24 - 11.29.24Last Week : Sunday Globex opened and held over lower ranges Value which put is in this 940 - 880+/- Distribution Balance, holding under 930s Edge kept giving us weakness into lower VAH but Tuesday Pre Market move into Value failed after tagging the Mean, prices were able to hold and climb back over the Edge which brought stability and more buying to close things up with a push/hold inside above Value. This Week: We have a tricky week coming up as we have End of the Month Week, Holiday, Supply inside and above current Value and buying/cost basis that we built up under 940s. This could lead towards slower back and forth trading inside/around this Value. Probably not a week to push for too much continuation on either side and maybe watch for smaller ranges. We are now inside 970 - 620 Intraday Range and if we have enough supply around/above it and buying under that could keep the price balancing around it. Unless volume comes in to knock us back down under VAL and can get us under 940s or make a push over 620s and start holding over 630+ then id be careful on holding too long or looking for big moves on either side, might be more of consolidation choppier trading. On Daily TF we have again made a move under Smaller MA, made a push for but no tag of anything bigger under and popped back out to finish the week, we may require more sideways action in this current HTF Range of 930s - 650s +/- Before we would be ready for any bigger corrections and this could take time to set up, and of course we arent looking for much higher prices unless we can built up under above Edge and get a good push through it with a hold without coming back in. Time to be careful and tighten up.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 11.17 - 11.22.24Last Week : Last week played out very well even though middle of the week had us thinking that maybe market will continue to hold inside Value above 970s as we kept getting buying in that area but it just took time to build up for the break of that cost basis at VAL to give us more selling end of week. Sunday Globex again opened over Value and grinded towards the upper Edge but we had no tag or push inside it which signaled weakness and as noted if that did no happen we needed to be careful looking for acceptance inside that new range and instead possibly look for this move to return back toward previous Edge and get back under 930s to possibly signal a failed new ATH break out by getting back under Previous ATH Consolidation. We first failed over Value and got the push back inside to correct the Poor low from Previous Weeks Friday Globex which was around the Mean area of that range which kept getting buying that gave us moves back to VAH but we slowly transitioned into correction first on Hourly then on 2hr and finally on 4hr to end the week on Friday with a break/hold under VAL smaller cost basis which gave us more weakness and selling to finish the Week under the lower Edge. This Week : So far looking at the structure of Daily/Weekly and the way we closed on Friday we could gather some info to help us go into this week. On Weekly TF we had a failed break out into new balance over 5950 which returned back inside Previous Balance of 950 - 660s, on Daily TF we hit a key upper Edge of the Range, held under it, built some supply and got back trough its VAH and made a move under its Mean area, under Previous ATHs consolidating potentially signaling a failed new ATH break out with a strong close under the smaller Daily MA. On Hourly's we have trapped Supply in above Range and reversed the whole move back under 930 - 13 Edge. All of this so far screams weakness and continuation lower to me, of course we have to be careful as market could hold and start balancing here above lower Mean/Value and even try to get back inside and over upper Edge which could bring stability back but I think we would need to do all that and be able to hold over 930s AND get back over above VAL in order to see real stability or strength return. Holding under the Hourly's Edge and under Daily Mean/under Previous ATHs we are looking for possible continuation towards 840s - 20s areas which would put us inside lower Value with a visit of its VAL which is also Daily VAL, these areas could provide covering if we get there BUT if we get through them then we can't forget about our favorite Previous Distribution Balance which market liked returning back into so much into 800 - 750s area which kept having our strong bids that would give us pushes away this is also Daily Edge low as that is a potential return target after failing at upper Edge. Will we get all the way there this week or not ? who knows but that is our possibility and something to watch moves towards as the week develops, question is when or if we get there will that area act as absorption area of all this Supply coming out and be enough to give us a good hold OR we have some nice longer TF stops under it which if we took could give us more supply to try another push for our lower Roll Gap which we have been building up to fill. This seems like a big move so maybe not all the way to fill the gap but it is in the cards if the weakness continues as that is also around Previous Weekly balance lows and if we get under 820 - 05 ( Weekly mid ) then that open the doors for it. To think higher prices from here again we would need either a strong bid to push us back through the upper Edge and be able to hold over 920-30s AND have the buying to eventually get us back inside above Value, or at least hold over 860s, consolidate without going lower and make a push for upper Edge. Until then will watch the short side or some sort of consolidation balance to be playing out.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
ES_F Daily LONGER Term OutlookThis is a Daily chart I have been tracking for some time using HTF Balance Ranges and Structure, it may or not play out and if it does then I would think this back fill/correction can take a long time to play out, I would say over a year+ so this is not for day trading or short term swing trading but it is something to possibly keep in mind and help track our movement with IF THEN statements and potential targets lower. 4800 area is something I have been tracking for a while that is an area to me that start our whole move which brought us here and I would not be surprised if we tried to back fill at least most of the way towards it. Again this can take a long time to play out but at least something to refer to in order to manage expectations for new highs and areas of interest for the market. Not much else to say I tried to make notes on the chart it self so its easier to track. For stability in the market we would need to not get back under 5820s - 5750/20s Areas and build bases over it then get back over 5990 - 6000 to think new highs, until then we could keep building supply and moving it to lower targets. For Day Trading refer to Weekly Day Trading Plans.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 11.10 - 11.15.24Last Week : Last week market opened under 5792 - 72 Edge which meant weakness to start the week and gave us moves towards lower VAH but again we kept getting buying at and under Previous Distribution Balance low and inside Value. We knew to be careful and that holding over 730s meant there is no need for larger supply to sell out. 724 was also an important area on Daily TF as it was the bottom of Daily Edge which we broke out of after our roll gap in September, we tested it but there was no break or any continuation under it. We knew if market gets back over 790s that could bring back strength to push back in Previous Value which is what we got on Tuesday leading into Election Results. Election Globex gave a huge move which continued higher towards 930s - 770s ranges Edge, took it out, consolidated and rest of the week we got lower volume grind higher into a new range to finish the week with a failure over new Value. This Week : Not easy to trade ATHs especially if we get them every few weeks or months and of course this move could be viewed as strength to bring in more buying that can keep us in this range or even continue grinding higher BUT something to keep in mind as few things are lining up here. We have made an Edge to Edge push on Daily TF ( reaching big Edge areas more often than not provides reaction in opposite direction ) , we have extended away from Daily MAs with a strong impulse that gave us blow off the top sort of move over our Previous Highs consolidation, we have finished the week with a failed or sort of failed push over VAH since we didn't fully come back in and held over 920s , we didn't reach new ranges top. Now all this doesn't mean we can't hold and continue balancing/grinding higher towards that Edge top and over still BUT if all this buying over 930s was from all the late buyers/traders who sat on their hands during the election days, came in saw areas holding and were buying for continuation to make money off momentum then they were also probably unloading as it went higher and might not have plans to hold this up long term unless market continues in their favor. If market does not continue in their favor and we get back under VAH / 620s then we could see this thing start moving towards their cost basis, we have Poor Globex low holding one of them up around the Mean of the Range, if that gets taken we will look for continuation towards VAL which has another cost basis and a base below it which could give us covering/holds in that area BUT I would not trust those areas for a longer term position, if market cant keep holding over the Mean/VAL of this range then we could see it come all the way back into lower Edge and maybe even under our Previous Highs to signal a failed new ATH break out. Will this all happen in a week or will it be a slow process is for us to find out, we don't really have market moving data to start the week and if we don't get new buying to keep pushing us then we at least can look for this process to start and see how it goes. On the other side for this move to stick and to think higher prices from here we would want to see us hold over VAH or at least push back towards the Mean/Hold over and get back over VAH as we need to get over 640s and test the upper Edge with holds inside or right under the Edge after the test, until this happens I will lean more towards a move back inside Value towards VAL and potentially finding our top around here.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
3
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 11.03 - 11.08Last Week : Sunday Globex opened right over the Mean of Value and gave a push back to VAH where we spent the night and RTH of Monday consolidating under, staying under VAH meant weakness for us going into the week and we kept seeing flushes towards VAL but every move towards it was mostly done during ON hours and would be bought back up over 840s. Finally midweek buyers saw no continuation and we got an RTH volume sell that closed under the Mean into the Key Area that needed to be taken out for continuation into VAL. Once under VAL all the buyers in Value and over were trapped for Supply and once we failed to get back into Value we saw the continuation sell back into Previous Distribution Balance with a strong break of Lower Edge to put us back into lower HTF Range of 790 - 630s. We did another look below 750 end of day Thursday which failed to continue that night and gave rotation back into to the Edge and Friday we most likely saw short covering before the Weekend after a big move that gave us a push to that balance top with a failure to hold over and finished with a close under the Edge trapping more supply. This Week : Could be another tricky week as we have election coming up Tuesday and some bigger data on Thursday so of course have to be careful trading this week but what can we sort of expect after last week ? We are back in Previous Distribution Balance of 750s - 800s and IF we do have enough covering and buying still then that could keep the price around it with moves out of it finding their way back in as one of the scenarios BUT this what is different this time around from the time that we spent in this balance before is that now we have plenty of supply and trapped buyers built up over us in the above ranges Value and Over it, plus the Supply that got built over Thursday and Friday inside it, with a push and close under the Edge this shows us acceptance in this lower range and IF we don't have the buying to keep us up we get through that 750s area then I would look for continuation pushes into the Mean and VAL area which has a bigger Cost Basis that we made a while ago with a Gap which happened during a contract roll that we could try to get into. IF we do get there then that would be an area to be careful around as we can see covering there under Value and above lower Edge but it's not something I would build a house on because size can take it out and that could bring more selling to test the lower Edge and maybe a peak under it. We don't have any news or data on Monday so we have to ask will the buyers from Thursday/Friday want to hold this product into Election Day or did they Sell Friday into the short covering and the ones who didn't will sell out once we take the stops which can bring the continuation move under VAH that we are looking for. To not get too short biased, IF we are able to hold over VAH/750s and see a push back over the Edge then we would need to see price hold over 790s to bring back stability AND once stability is back would need to see a push back into above VAL, until then need to be careful looking for higher prices from the Edge as we could either balance under the Edge/VAH area or get continuation to lower targets.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 10.27 - 11.01Last Week : Last week Sunday Globex opened right at the upper Edge with a sell back to VAH. Going into the week being under the Edge and under 900 was our key to see moves back to Value, we saw pushes inside Value Monday RTH and Tuesday Pre Market which were bought up until we built more supply right around VAH which finally gave us a move into Value for the 70 - 50s and 40s targets. We did get enough Volume to make it all the way down to VAL and through towards the lower Edge but ran out of Supply right at the top of Previous Distribution Balance and were able to come back inside Value. We ended the week with another attempt out of VAH which ran out of buying and came back inside Value to take back the whole move which was done during Globex hours to close under the Mean right into the Intraday Range Edge of 41 - 36. This Week : Looking at this weeks chart and price location it's not as easy to read as there are lots of possibilities which could happen. We are going into Month end week, have quite a bit of market moving data, supply in Value and above, and covering at and under VAL. 30m , 2h, 4h are in correction mode, 1hr not quite there just yet if we are looking at the MAs. Daily TF also giving us first signs of correction starting but it's just the first steps which means it might not be ready yet for any bigger continuation lower and at the same time have the Supply in Value and above to possibly go down and fill the buying in around VAL and Under. Of course IF stronger volume comes in and we see strong acceptance under VAL and are able to push inside or through the lower Edge then that could bring in a bigger change for more downside into lower HTF Range/our Previous Distribution Balance low and lower Value so will be something to keep in mind and watch for. If we can't stay above 840s - 50s to stay over the Mean of this Value and stay in this 880 - 40 Intraday Range then we will look for pushes into VAL and under, at and under VAL we have to be careful as there could be enough buying/covering to keep us away from the Edge but at the same time not give us big bounces as we have seen before, instead we could distribute around this 840 - 800s area. After failing at the upper Edge with Supply above, lower Edge and even push under it could be a good target/move to see this week but I am just trying to stay away from getting too biased to not push for it but its something to keep in mind. For us to think higher prices from here again we would need to either hold above 840s and get back over 50 - 60s to stay in 880 - 40s Intraday Range and see pushes towards VAH or consolidate around VAL without accepting under and then push back over Value Mean. And if buying and selling on both sides of Value is still strong enough then we could continue holding and going back and forth between VAH/VAL. Overall looking at HTFs it seems like we are ready for a bigger back fill to finally happen in the market but it might take time to play out, if there will be interest I can post a Daily TF Chart which shows the range we broke out of is 5750s - 5400s, a back fill to break out area and IF we get back inside then move towards Mid/lows and under of that range can be in play but again that's HTF Outlook that can take a LONG time to fully play out not for intraday or shorter term swing trading.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
$spx going to 11k over the next 3 to 4 yearsIm expecting the current bull to continue for another few years, with a deep correction in between now and the expected target of 11 k, by 2028/29... From there I expect SP:SPX to enter a sideways bear market such as the ones of 68/75 and 2000/2009 in order to form the 4th base of the secular run since 1929 (shown the comments). Bears always get it wrong, because of their self-delusions about the world and often also themselves! It's bulls who - due to their prescience and foresight - actually get to foresee tops in the market. Bears never catch a top, if they do it's either by coincidence, luck or something a four year old could have seen, like the covid top... anyway... we see so much madness in the ideas section, it's even fun!
SP:SPX
by LotusTrading20
ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 10.20 - 10.25Last Week : Last week Globex opened and held over Value, for any weakness from there we needed to either get back under Value middle or tag VAH and come back in, instead we pushed up into VAH before the RTH which brought in more buying and gave us a push to test the upper Edge of this HTF Range we have accepted in. As mentioned Monday first tags of big HTF areas like that more often than not give a reaction into opposite direction, which we got the following day with a flush back into Value but that supply was bought up and we again pushed outside of Value. Last two days of the week we ended up balancing between VAH and Edge keeping the price inside the new HTF Range with a close right under the Edge, under Monday and Thursday Highs. This Week : This week I am leaning towards us staying within the current HTF Range as we again don't have much of market moving data coming. Something to look for is if we still have strong enough buying in/over Value then we could continue balancing around this current Intraday Range of 930s - 880s BUT we do have a week of Supply built up here and we are right at the Edge of the HTF Range which tells me that unless we can build up inside the Edge then push over and continue to VAL above or hold the Edge on pull backs after taking it then I wont be looking for much higher prices from here but instead for a possible return back to VAH and possibly a move back inside Value into 880s - 40s Intraday Range, with supply above we could see a return back to 870 - 50s and even pushes towards 40s and VAL. If we do make moves towards VAL we need to be careful with looking for too much continuation under 50 - 40s unless we can take out VAL and show clear acceptance under it, until then we can spend time balancing around this current Value thats if we get back inside of course which would mean for pushes out of VAH and VAL would find their way back inside eventually. We could continue to grind higher here to start the week and attempt to push inside the Edge to try and build up there but as mentioned careful looking for continuation unless we get through the Edge top and don't come back in.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 10.13 - 10.18Last Week : Interesting week we had as many different things happened and it was fun to watch. Last week Globex opened and made a return back into distribution balance, RTH flushed the inventory back into VAL but we again were able to hold VAL into the close and Tuesday Globex rotated back inside balance which brought buying and gave us another failed attempt out of balance top but market was able to hold over the 80s and supply which brought in more buying and triggered a short covering stop run into next Value which held and gave some continuation to close the week. This Week : Friday market attempted a push for VAH into 5840 - 80s Intraday range. We were able to hold around the mean of the of the range into the close but we can see it ended with a Poor high and Weakness into into 50s. IF we are to accept in this new range then we would see price holding over 840s, over Value if that will be the case then we could continue trading in this range over VAL and start building up for an attempt at VAH test. BUT we have to be careful as mentioned last week and week before that previous distribution range was a very interesting area and with current PA we might not be fully done with it, of course we will have to see what the market will actually do. Which means if we don't accept inside/over Value then this push could find its way back under 40s into VAL, IF we will be holding under 30s with Supply above that could trigger more weakness to get us back towards the Edge and eventually if we will have the supply find a way back into Previous Balance. Something to note this week is Volume has been low, we don't have any market moving news until Thursday so need to be careful for more a slow leak back in instead of a quick return if it is to happen, holding over 830s would or 860s would change the weakness.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 10.06 - 10.11Last Week : Sunday Globex held the Edge after open which gave us an attempt at above VAL into Mondays RTH Close. We pushed above the distribution balance, consolidated under next ranges VAL and sold back to Balance low. We spent the whole week filling out that area under the Edge with sells into VAH but we never got clear acceptance under 730s which is what was needed for any more downside from there, instead we would look under distribution balance low and come back towards the middle. After getting no continuation lower we got short covering on Friday before the weekend which drove prices back to balance top with a close over the Edge. This Week : Close over the Edge could be seen as strength and could bring in more buyers if we hold over it or at least over 780s, but we have to be careful over 800s because until we accept over VAL and start transacting inside next ranges Value then price may want to keep coming back inside and under the Edge of current HTF Range which is 5772 - 5650+/-. If we do get a push above but again fail to hold/get over VAL then we would look for a return back into the Edge and from there possible sells into the Supply towards balance low/VAH. IF we do return back into/under the Edge and will have enough supply built up which may take some time this week to built up we could attempt a push into lower Value and that's an IF as we may have another sort of inside week inside the distribution balance. For strength to come in and start thinking of higher prices from 800s we would need to start holding over the Edge and start transacting over VAL over 830s until then we can stay around distribution balance building Supply to bring back inside lower Value cost basis to fill the buyers there, may still need time to build up for that. Until then balance.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn