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#ES_F Day Trading Prep for Week 8.20-8.25Levels to Watch : Resistance - Current 4392.25-86.75 // Key for Continuation 4405.25-4398 4422-18.75 // 4434.75-28.50 // 4445-37.75 Support - Current and for continuation lower 4367.25-59.50 4349.50 // 4327-21.50 ? Not Tested. Key HTF Support 4291.50-65.50 I wouldn't say 4378.50-74.75 is currently Support unless Globex can Hold over. Last Week : Beginning of the week market opened and held Current Support which gave a push back inside our Key Resistance area with a what could seem like a strong end of day push/close. To me it seemed like an end of day stop run to sell into, our theme has been sell what we can at lower prices while buyers are there then once buyers run out we move lower trapping new buyers above. Another red flag was that we didn't fully take out that 4502-09 area. Tuesday Globex made a push out of Key Resistance, went sideways and failed which is what started our next move towards lower targets. We hit both of the big targets lower in one week, can see that closer to our bigger Support areas we were getting the more consolidation we needed to continue but we made it there. 4374-62-49 was our Key Support area on Friday and we needed to hold under for any continuation, this was also a big target where shorts would be taking profit and covering.. especially into the weekend, as well a Support everyone had their eyes on for possible bounce they have bene waiting for while its coming down? Support held and surprise we again got a stop run end of day back towards our Resistance for the day at 4392. This Week : This week might be a bit tricky, we had some good selling going down towards our lower targets but we are now getting closer to our bigger Support areas and there is starting to be more congestion around here. It doesn't look like there is enough strong buying here to just give us a bounce or a big reversal yet. We are still under the Supply and have been trapping more on the way down so this could take some time to clean up and or a another flush towards bigger Support where we could find a bigger bid that can give us a stronger move up or at least better hold to start bigger consolidation. Currently our inventory is in this 4392-4362 range and we are looking to see where it could move, most of the inventory is built up over 4375 because we didn't spend as much time under it Friday. We have 4392-4403 as our Key Resistance and we would want to see market be able to push over it and look strong over it before we can start thinking of bigger reversal to head for higher stops, if we can't then that means continued weakness for now. If we do hold over 74 area and get over 92-98 then we will have a chance over Key Resistance. If we get under 4378-74 we could see more selling towards lower Support, if that doesn't hold we have a chance for continuation lower where our targets would be 49.50 - 30s, possibly test of 27-21.50 and maybe that Contract Roll Gap area? which so happens to be above our HTF Key Support area. We will have to see if we can get in that space and fill it or do we find buyers to possibly give us a hold/pull back. If that doesn't hold we have 4310-4291 as our bigger time frame range low and its possible to either find a bigger bid or at least enough buying for hold/some sort of reversal IF we get there and of course if we find that. Market made a big move lower and now might need time clean up, we will have to see what kind of action we get.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
2
#ES_F Overview and Prep for the Week This chart was made using volume profile to try and capture areas of interest and bigger picture over all. We broke into this range June 12th, held above and that gave us a test higher where we found our first good resistance and sold back down to the break out area where we ran out of supply to go lower and price came back inside Value. End of the month once we took the stops over the middle of Value that gave us short covering and a move outside of Value but that was a Friday before a holiday so went sideways and closer to RTH we broke back inside taking the stops to give us the flush. Selling looked strong but we never broke VAL instead we found the bid that took us back towards VAH where after we took the stops from previous failed break out it gave us the buying to take us into resistance. What can we see now? Well few things that stand out here, so far this was 1st test of resistance, can see we got extended away, it was done during Globex hours when volume is lighter and its much easier to move the price around. We hit the top of double value area, came back in, tried to break out and failed. All this kind of tells us that there is chance this is failed break out away from this range for now, this also tells us that now we can possibly target the middle of this doubled value area and if we break that we could target the bottom of it which would put us back around 4490s-80s for this week with maybe a bounce from there? I think we have to see here how long it takes for us to come back in as we could potentially find some support here and do some chop unless we get some size selling that will break it quicker. Another question is will we break it after just first rejection from the high or might we try to make another run towards 4540s before we get back under 4525-08 IF we get back at all, of course we could pull back, consolidate and make another push over the high but so far its not ready for that and we have those lower stops lined up around 25-08 area that if we take could give us more selling towards 4490-80. We could also take the stops, find support around 4500 to take us for another push towards 4525 that would build up some more supply to take us down towards support. This 4550-4480 is our balance area going into this week until broken and we trade within it. Levels to Watch Intraday : Current Support 4528.50-4519 Current Resistance 4551.25-4543.75 Targets if we build up enough to break Support if we Break Current : S1 4512.75-05.50 // S2 4487.25-79.75 Would need to see a break of 79-75 and hold under for Continuation Lower Possible to find support at S2 or Before around 4495 Resistance if we Break Current : R1 4562.50-70 Key area would need to see break for anything over.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
8/24 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Yesterday saw a clean uptrend move in ES, marking a major low after three days of higher daily lows. The relief bounce to 4418 and high 4420s was anticipated and played out as expected. The day ended with ES reclaiming 4400 and squeezing to the 4426-29 target. The market now sits 100 points off last Friday’s low, with key catalysts such as NVDA earnings and Jackson Hole on Friday ahead. Market Outlook: Bullish Premarket 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Up slightly 🌎 US Index Futures: Mostly up but areas of weakness 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Down a bit World Headlines NVIDIA reignites AI rally with their blowout earnings report. Key Structures The large rising uptrend channel connecting the March and May lows failed last Tuesday, causing a 120 point flush. Resistance is currently at 4500, with closer bottom indicator at 4470-75. The declining channel from the August high has resistance today at 4445-47 and support at 4310. The yellow declining channel from the August high was reclaimed yesterday, with support at 4429-23 today. Support Levels Key support levels include 4442, 4429 (major), 4423, 4412, 4403-06 (major), 4389, 4376-74 (major), 4368, 4345-50 (major), 4339, 4329, 4318 (major), 4308, 4300-02 (major), 4286 (major), 4273, 4265, 4247, 4241 (major), 4230-35 (major). Resistance Levels Resistance levels to watch are 4448 (major), 4454, 4470-75 (major), 4487-90, 4500 (major), 4512 (major), 4517, 4533 (major), 4540 (major), 4545, 4555, 4565 (major), 4580, 4593 (major), 4600, 4607, 4618-22 (major). Trading Plan The bull case today requires holding 4429-26 on any dips, ideally building a base in the range between 4429-4450, then taking a run to 4470-75 next, followed by 4500. The bear case begins on the fail of 4403, with a short at 4399 for a move down the levels. A fail of 4429-23 is another potential short entry point. Wrap Up After a big trend move and with NVDA big positive earnings, the general lean is that ES can defend 4429 and try the run to 4470-75. As always, following the price and not predicting is key. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
8/23 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap ES broke its three-day red streak last Friday by putting in a daily bullish reversal candle. This triggered a relief rally that started this week, squeezing 60+ points. Despite the volatility, ES has remained in the same position as it was on Friday/Monday in the 4390-4400 support cluster. The question now is whether ES is building a base for a bottom or setting up for its next leg down. Market Outlook: Neutral Premarket 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Mixed 🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Up slightly World Headlines Slowing European PMI data Key Structures The large rising uptrend channel in white connecting the March and May lows failed last Tuesday, causing a 120 point flush. To set a definitive “bottom” this has to reclaim and currently, resistance is way up at 4493. The August high has resistance at 4448-54 and support at 4315. The yellow declining channel from the August high is a failed bull flag with resistance at 4426-29. Support Levels Supports are: 4390-92 (major), 4382, 4376, 4370-72 (major), 4347 (major), 4333, 4317 (major), 4311, 4303-05 (major), 4287 (major), 4272, 4265, 4254, 4247 (major), 4230-35 (major), 4220 Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4400-4405 (major), 4413, 4418, 4426-29 (major), 4448, 4452 (major), 4468 (major), 4474, 4480, 4493 (major), 4512 (major), 4517, 4530, 4538-41 (major), 4549, 4560-62, 4578-80 (major). Trading Plan The bull case depends on 4390 holding and as of writing, we are hovering just above. As long as that 4390-4400 battleground holds, the relief bounce that began last Friday is still alive. The bear case begins on the fail of 4390. I’d look to short this. As always, I don’t chase. I’d ideally like to see some sort of final bounce attempt here, then 4388 would trigger shorts. Wrap Up ES is at a major inflection point here and is about to make a decision. I am prepared to react accordingly whatever path it chooses. My general lean though is that since 4390 has not failed yet, that ES can try to continue the relief bounce one more time (to 4418, high 4420s). 4390 fails though, we will head to low 4370s which is the last stop before new lows. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
8/22 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap In my last newsletter, I spoke about the bullish hammer candle reversal day we saw in ES after three straight red days. This was only the third green day in the entire month of August. As a result, I was holding long over the weekend with multiple setups to add to this. My general lean was that we could bounce more, to 4404, then perhaps 4420s before trying lower, and this is precisely what played out yesterday. Market Outlook: Neutral Premarket 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Down a bit 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Up slightly 🔮 Crypto: Down slightly World Headlines Reducing reliance on the US dollar in focus at the BRICS summit beginning today. Key Structures ES has done something yesterday for the first time in August: It put in two consecutive green days - a true rarity. The questions is, can bulls keep it going? The large rising uptrend channel in white connecting the March and May lows failed on Tuesday, causing 3 days of selling. To set a definitive “bottom” this has to reclaim and currently, resistance is way up at 4487-90. Support Levels Supports are: 4411, 4405 (major), 4392-94 (major), 4382, 4369-72 (major), 4345-48 (major), 4340, 4328, 4315-19 (major), 4304 (major), 4287 (major), 4275, 4267 (major), 4247-50, 4236 (major), 4220 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4422-25 (major), 4432, 4442 (major), 4448, 4465 (major), 4473, 4486-90 (major), 4500, 4511 (major), 4517, 4527, 4542 (major), 4560, 4575, 4580, 4585 (major). Trading Plan My trading plan is to be very cautious today, especially after a big, one directional move, below major resistances. Longs are risky (chasing into a resistance), and price loves to chop hard in these zones. I will be picking my spots very carefully and patience will be key. I will not be trying to predict the action, but rather react with no preconceptions. Wrap Up In summary, bulls aren't out of the woods yet by any means, but the fact we spent two days basing now is a healthier sign. My general lean is we can base build now 4392-4420s. This would set up a push to 4442+. If 4392 fails today, it's a big warning sign and I'd be quite cautious on longs below there. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
8/21 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap This week has been a masterclass in what I call “Technical Analysis 101”. The most significant technical event of 2023 occurred on Tuesday, with ES breaking down the uptrend channel connecting the March and May lows. This resulted in a 100+ point multi-day selloff, the deepest since before the March low. However, ES managed to put in a green recovery day on Friday, in the form of a bullish hammer candle. Premarket 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Down World Headlines The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) lowers short term loan rates slightly but disappoints markets by leaving longer term rates steady. Key Structures The large rising uptrend channel in white, connecting the March lows and the May lows, is the primary medium term channel. It failed on Tuesday this week, resulting in a significant sell-off. Other key structures include the declining channel in yellow and the resistance of the yellow trendline connecting the December and January highs. Support Levels The major support levels to watch are 4370, 4340-42, 4315-4305, and 4260s. These levels provide context to the daily price action and are not meant to be predictive. Resistance Levels The major resistance levels to watch are 4402, 4420-28, and 4487-90. Clearing these resistances would be a big structural win for bulls and could potentially lead to a recovery. Trading Plan In terms of resistances, I’d prefer to try shorts at the 4418 and 4428-30 cluster. Wrap Up Bears remain in control and any bounces are only relief until proven otherwise. My lean is that we can bounce more, to 4404, then perhaps 4420s before trying lower. If ES can clear that 4420-30 resistance cluster, there is a case for a more sustained bottom. 4370 fail triggers down direct. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 8.13-8.18 Last Week : Last week market went sideways between our Key Resistance and Current Support area which we established on Sunday. Selling seemed very mechanical again because we didn't have size plowing through important levels and continuing, instead we get holds/bounces then continuation which so far has been trapping more new longs on the way down who are looking for support or bigger bounces from here while filling lower. Thursday/Friday we finally saw breaks of 4487-79 Support and put in some volume under it as well but the break on Friday was done pre market hours and when RTH volume came in we were able to hold as market tagged the stops at 65-60 target but didn't hold/continue under trapping pre market shorts for support. We saw this time around that we didn't have strong enough buying to get us back over 4490s-4500 and we closed inside our Current Support for that week with more supply built up above. This Week : This week is a bit difficult to read because we are in the middle of a bigger range but we can look at what we currently have to work with. Overall I think we are still in correction lower as supply is coming out from above and we haven't seen anything to signal trend change to the upside on bigger time frames from here yet. Last week marked balanced in the lower part of this 4560-4490 range with failures to spend any time over Key Resistance area. Friday Globex built up enough supply to break the Support for the week but got no continuation after 65-60 tag, this should be our area to watch going into tonight if we open around it. So far again we are set to open under previous weeks settlements and that would mean as long as we are holding under 4510-4495 that should bring continued weakness. Going into tonight we have 4487-79 as an area to watch, will this previous Support now act as our Resistance or can the market find buyers to get back over it? If we can't hold this 87-79 area we have stops lined up under us starting at 75-70-65-60 area which we could go for if we either get selling or build up the supply. 4465-60 is an area to watch for any continuation this week, under it we can see 4445-37 // 4422-18 and maybe even 4403-4392 areas. Never know how much selling we will get and where the market will find the bid, if this is just trapped supply coming out and its not that much then we shouldn't see market go much lower if we do go there at all BUT just in case if enough selling comes in next Key Support area is 4375-60 and under. For market to regain strength again we would want to see it hold over 4465-60 and ideally be able to push over 4490-95 and 4510-02 area and hold as that would bring back stability and could bring in more buyers to head for higher stops, unless this happens I will only be looking for longs from lower Support areas after market shows holds and consolidations around them that look promising. If we do hold over 4510 we have 4532-25 as another Key Resistance, just over all not looking good for longs over 4500 right now unless we find a strong bid or buying that can push us over it first. I will be watching Globex tonight to see where we open and what we do at 87-79 area for possible continuation lower or if we start consolidating at/above then will wait for more information tomorrow. Levels to Watch : Resistance - Current 4490-95 Key 4508-02 // 4532-25 Support - Current 4479 // 4470-65 Stops under 4445-37 // 22-18 Next Key 4403-4392
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
2
8/18 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap The bears had their first major technical win since mid-February, breaking the perfect rising trendline from the March lows. This has triggered a "sell the bounce" theme with the bulls struggling to put in green days in August. The question now is whether there is a relief bounce on the horizon. Premarket 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down World Headlines Major Chinese property developer Evergrande is back in the news, this time filing for Chapter 15 to protect it during restructuring. Key Structures The declining channel extending from the July 27th high broke down on Tuesday, starting the cascade lower. The large rising uptrend channel, which connects the March lows and the May lows, also failed late Tuesday. This was the first technical success bears have had since March. Support Levels The most immediate major support that failed is now the immediate squeeze trigger on the reclaim of 4404. Other support levels include 4369 then 4340-45. Resistance Levels The backtest of the declining channel is now 4438 and was where we rejected yesterday. To set a "bottom", the large rising uptrend channel has to reclaim and currently, resistance is at 4480ish. The 4463-66 level we broke down from on Tuesday would likely also count as an early reclaim and is also significant. Trading Plan The plan for today is to continue to sell the bounce. A sustained bounce will only come when a resistance clears. The two big ones are now 4393 then 4404. A short squeeze could occur if we can reclaim that 4404. Wrap Up Bears remain in control. The general lean is that ES can test 4369 next level down, then perhaps try another sustained bounce there and if it can’t reclaim 4393 then 4404, we simply continue lower down to 4340. A squeeze could occur above 4404. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
8/17 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap August 2023 has been a unique month with 12 trading days, 10 of which were red. Tuesday, ES hit its most significant support level, leading to a continued grind down. This triggered shorts Tuesday for a breakdown trade, which finally followed through yesterday afternoon. After 10 of 12 days red, the question is whether the bulls can get a relief bounce and where. Premarket 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Down slightly 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Mixed World Headlines 8:30am Unemployment Claims 240K expected, 239K reported. The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. 8:30am Philly Fed Manufacturing Index -9.8 expected, 12 reported. Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in Philadelphia. 10:00am CB Leading Index m/m -0.4% Combined reading of 10 economic indicators related to employment, new orders, consumer confidence, housing, stock market prices, credit trends, and interest rate spreads. Key Structures The core structure remains a declining channel in yellow - extending from the July 27th high. Support today is now 4448, and resistance will be 4555-60. The large rising uptrend channel in white, which connects the March lows and the May lows, is the primary medium term channel which broke down yesterday. The reclaim of this structure will be the core objective for bulls in the coming days. Support Levels Supports are: 4424, 4411 (major), 4403 (major), 4394, 4382 (major), 4369, 4358, 4345, 4328-32 (major), 4312 (major), 4305 (major) Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4438-34 (major), 4448 (major), 4464, 4473 (major), 4493 (major) 4500, 4510-14 (major), 4524, 4533 (major), 4542 (major), 4555-59 (major), 4568, 4580, 4591 (major), 4598, 4607 (major), 4613, 4625 (major), 4641, 4657-62 (major). Trading Plan In terms of levels to bid direct, 4411 and 4403 are two very significant supports below here at which a knife catch long could be tried. For spots to add shorts, 4448 is fairly well tested now and may clear if we get back up there. 4473 would be one spot of interest, and 4510-14 would be the best area. Wrap Up This market is impossible to predict and I am in reaction mode. My loose lean if I had to give one is we sell to 4411, perhaps 4403 then try a rally there up the levels to 4448. We could see a green day off this but bulls will need to reclaim 4448 to have accomplished anything significant. 4403 fails, we start the next leg direct to 4383. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
8/15 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap As predicted, we saw a push to 4515 major resistance followed by a dip in the ES. This was no surprise as ES remained stuck in a 1.5 week bi-directional range, the largest of its type since May 2023, and December 2022 before that. Late in the day, we finally broke the range down. Premarket 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Down World Headlines Chinese central bank cuts interest rates in surprise move on more weak economic data. Michael Bury spooks investors with new big short. 13F filing shows he bought $1.6B of puts on SPY and QQQ. Fitch analyst warns of coming US banking downgrade. Key Structures We remain in an extremely choppy range between 4515 and 4459. This level was a major, multi-month trendline and after a full day of chop, it finally cracked. This is the most significant technical breakdown in many months. ES has now been red for an incredible 9 of the last 11 days. The core structure remains a declining channel in white - extending from the July 27th high. Support tomorrow is now 4454, and resistance will be 4562. Support Levels 4454 (major), 4448, 4438, 4430 (major), 4423, 4416, 4400-4405 (major), 4395 (major), 4382, 4368, 4350, 4339 (major), 4327, 4312-15, 4306 (major). Resistance Levels 4461 (major), 4468, 4474, 4487-90 (major), 4505-08 (major), 4522 (major), 4534, 4545-50 (major), 4562 (major), 4568, 4579, 4591, 4597 (major), 4608 (major), 4621, 4634, 4650-52 (major), 4660, 4672, 4680, 4692-95 (major), 4705-4710 (major). Trading Plan Bears control until we can reclaim the area we broke down today, which is roughly 4461 now. I would be looking to trade the reclaim of this zone. If we can reclaim that white channel at 4461ish now, it will provoke a violent short squeeze and possible multi-week/month low. This would probably see a push back to 4505, dip, then onto 4560s. On the bearish side, bears control under 4461-68 zone now. Generally the bearish path here would have 4400 as a magnet with level to level bounces on the way down. Wrap Up Bears made a play for it today by cracking the 4461 level, and the coming hours will be key to see if its a real or failed breakdown. I will react accordingly. My loose lean is we can make our way to 4438, perhaps 4430 then try a larger bounce there. If 4461-68 reclaims, bottom is probably in. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
8/14: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap July, the second most bullish month of the year, saw three consecutive weeks of growth, rallying 220 points. August started with the first red week in three, followed by a more turbulent descent this week. However, August is traditionally a consolidation month, with a 0.1% average return over the past 20 years. This pattern of a choppy first half and stronger second half has been evident this year, with ES making slight new lows then squeezing all week. Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Up World Headlines Renewed concerns about the health of China’s economy as it’s largest private wealth manager missed payments Key Structures The core structure is a declining channel in yellow, extending from the July 27th high. This is a bull flag, however, it only becomes one on the breakout. Patterns exist only as probabilities until they confirm. Support of this is now 4465, and resistance will be 4580. Other important structures include the major June/July resistance that started the current leg up, shown in purple below, and the large rising uptrend channel in white, which connects the March lows and the May lows. Support Levels Supports are: 4480, 4474, 4464 (major), 4457 (major), 4448, 4435, 4426 (major), 4410, 4395-4400 (major), 4388, 4380, 4367-70 (major), 4350, 4339, 4322, 4305-10 (major), 4288 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4493-88 (major), 4500, 4509 (major), 4518 (major), 4532, 4545 (major), 4555, 4564, 4568-71 (major), 4580, 4587-92 (major), 4607 (major), 4618, 4633, 4644 (major), 4665, 4670, 4681-84 (major), 4692, 4704 (major), 4724, 4733 (major), 4750-55, 4770 (major). Trading Plan The bull case today depends on the 4457 zone holding, and ideally, it does not even test again. An ideal bull case would look something like ES continuing to base between 4475 and 4488-93, then pushing up to 4509, 4518, then dipping again before tackling 4545. The bear case begins on the fail of 4457. Shorting here is a break-down trade, which requires a good read of the price action to execute well. Wrap Up We are currently in a choppy phase. The loose lean is that we can continue to base above the 4457 level and below 4492, then try to push up the levels again to 4509 then 4518. A dip there is likely. If 4457 fails, shorts trigger for a large leg down - and this leg could last days. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
SPY Levels - CGG Newsletter 08/13-18/2023Upside: 448.06 → 448.92 → 450.48 → 451.70 → 453.07 Downside 443.97 → 442.97 → 441.98 → 441.08 → 439.46 Technical Analysis: Since making yearly lows in March, SPY has been in a larger uptrend channel, with its last higher high peaking in July. Since making this high SPY has made a downwards channel on the daily inside the larger upwards chanel, and looks to make a higher high soon on the green uptrend line. A great spot for it to bounce is coming soon. With any sign of weakness, SPY looks ready to fillthe samll gap it made from July 11-12, which should be filled at 442.97. Under this gap we have the long GP from 441.08-441.98 along with a strong daily level at 441.21. I would look to go long in this area. If we get a bounce we will look to see if we can break over last week's high of 451.70. If we can reclaim some bullish momentum, I would expect us to test the gap above (453.52-455.49), or at least get close as we have the SHORT GP from 453.29-453.81 we can target to the upside for bulls. Failure to hold above 441.21 changes my macro view, and I would flip bearish, but my general lean is bullish going into next thursday's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.
AMEX:SPYLong
by peterjames_6
ES Levels - CGG Newsletter (08/13-18/2023)Upside: 4478 → 4500 → 4519 → 4542 → 4566 Downside 4459 → 4447 → 4422 → 4400 Technical Analysis: ES tested a breakdown of a Long GP from 4461-4470, but bounced to close the Friday down only -0.1%. We want to see if ES can hold above last week's lows, if not, I could see a test below in the 4447 area where we should start to see buyers come in. This area would be crucial for us to hold this week as the bullish trendline we made from this year's March lows sits right in that area. I lean bullish throughout the week as long as we hold that trendline as support into the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium which starts next week, August 24-26. I would expect some bullish movement to send us back to at least 4566, which was a strong daily level which also coincides with the SHORT GP that was just made from July's high to the low made on Friday.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by peterjames_6
#ES_F Day Trading Prep For the Week 8.07-8.11Last Week : Surprisingly last week played out perfectly just had to be a little patient with things, last Sunday we noted that market needed either a strong push over 4615-10 and hold above or consolidate under 4603 before pushing over 4615-10 to possibly continue higher and if not the buyers who are not getting the upside here for weeks will start selling which can start triggering lower stops and if we take take out Swing Stops we can see lower Key Support at 4532-25 and Cost Basis under at 4525-4502 tested. We did get a push over 4615 but it was done end of day Monday after consolidating over 4603 not under. We spent some time over it Tuesday Globex but failed to hold over. Tuesday RTH breaking, putting in time/volume and closing under 4603 signaled weakness and confirmation of trapped longs over 4603 as they tried to keep it over 4615 and failed, bid under 4590 was removed and we opened on the gap lower which started our trip to lower targets. This Week : Friday we got a nice pull back towards Supply area and found more selling which gave us the break of 4525-4502 cost basis. Going forward this might be our potential Supply area into this week as we did put in time and volume above it and failed to hold. Not only did we break 4508-02 but we also took out the minor stops just under it after hours. Depending how we open (maybe another gap?) but if we fail to get back over 4508-02 and hold this could bring in more selling as we would be again under the Settlement, if that's the case then we can target lower targets. We have Current Support at 4487-49 but I wouldn't put too much trust in it, with some size we break it... Under we have untested end of day Spike Base at 4465-60 and another Cost Basis under it at 4460-45, both are good targets if we see continuation. We would need to see 4445-37 break and hold under for any more downside. IF this is size trying to get out of the market we will go through the levels like they don't matter but so far its been very mechanical because we can see how we get responses after the tests and still get pull backs to trap more supply on the way down. For the market to go back up we would need to either bounce from 4487-79 or consolidate over it and get back over 4508-02 with good hold hold then we could see a move higher to retest our previous Key Support which we broke but that is now Supply area we would need either a strong bid or a nice consolidation under to get back over it I would think. We can look for possible quick longs from lower Supports if want to trade long as those areas usually have some buying around but over all better trades might be short this week. We take it day by day because everything can change, that's the way its set up now. Levels to Watch : Resistance // Current 4510-02 // Key 4532-25 If Above can target 4548-43 Stops Would need a hold above to continue Support // Current 4487-79 Under can target 70-65-60 Cost Basis 4460-45 Key Support 4445-37 Would need to be broken for any continuation Lower Area of interest just in case : 4422-18 // 4403-4383
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
3
8/11: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Yesterday, CPI delivered as expected with plenty of large, bi-directional swings and traps. Despite this volatility, ES followed the general trade plan well, defending the 4493 support zone and continuing the rally to high 4530s. The market closed right at the 4493-88 level, which has been tested six times since last Friday. Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Down slightly World Headlines Producer Price Index reports higher than expectations. Key Structures The core structure remains a declining channel, extending from the July 27th high. This is a bull flag, however, it only becomes one on the breakout. Support of this is now 4467-69, and resistance will be 4580. Support Levels The support levels for today are 4475, 4467-69 (major), 4452-55 (major), 4446, 4438, 4431, 4423 (major), 4413 (major), 4397-4401 (major), 4383, 4367 (major), 4351, 4338 (major), 4327, 4317, 4310 (major). Resistance Levels The resistance levels for today are 4492-88 (major), 4500, 4509-13 (major),4522, 4527 (major), 4539, 4543-46 (major), 4554, 4560 (major), 4570, 4580-85 (major), 4592, 4598, 4608 (major), 4617 (major), 4625, 4635, 4643 (major), 4650, 4657 (major), 4665, 4681 (major). Trading Plan The bull case today would involve ES defending the 4469-67 zone lowest, then reclaiming that 4493-88. From there, we’d make the same trip - back to 4509, dip, then up again to 4540s. If we do flush again today, 4450 is the last shot for bulls. The bear case begins on the fail of 4469-67. I’d need to see a bounce or failed breakdown here to drain demand from the level, then I’d consider short perhaps 4466 for the move down the levels. The real sell comes on the fail of 4452-55. After an initial bounce to drain demand, I’d be looking to short the breakdown here perhaps 4445 for a move down the levels. Wrap Up These remain complex conditions, but also prime conditions for traders who just trade the levels and aren’t focused on trying to predict the price action. My general lean for today is that ES can defend that yellow flag support (4469 lowest), then reclaim 4493 to try back up to 4509+ again. If 4469 fails, we test 4450. Real selling starts below. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
8/10: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap The month of August has seen a shift in trading character, with massive bi-directional swings in the ES. The ES made four full round trips from the 4535+ zone down to the 4480-90 zone since Friday alone. On Tuesday, the ES rallied to 4532 then dipped back down to the 4480-90 zone and held. The 4493-88 zone remains the most important area in ES, as it back-tests the zone we broke out from on July 12th, triggering a 3 week rally. Today is CPI day, which are typically the most volatile and difficult trading days of the year. Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly up 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Down 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down slightly World Headlines It’s inflation day. US Consumer Price Index inflation prints slightly below expectations at 3.2%. Key Structures The core structure now remains a declining channel in yellow - extending from the July 27th high. This is a bull flag, however, it only becomes one on the breakout. Support of this is now 4475, and resistance will be 4580. Everything inside equals consolidation. Support Levels Supports are: 4493-87 (major), 4484, 4475 (major), 4467, 4459, 4453-48 (major), 4438, 4420-23 (major), 4410, 4395-4400 (major), 4382, 4368 (major), 4351, 4340-45 (major), 4327, 4317, 4310 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4508-04 (major), 4521 (major), 4528, 4538-40 (major), 4547, 4559 (major), 4569, 4579-83 (major), 4592, 4598-4601, 4614-17 (major), 4624, 4631, 4639-43 (major), 4647, 4660, 4670, 4677-80 (major), 4692 (major), 4705. Trading Plan For CPI days, price can squeeze very hard, through multiple levels so any shorts that are counter-trend must be taken small and at your own risk. The 4538-40 zone remains a strong resistance. If ES were to dip, this is the spot before we head to 4579-83. Bull case today: We are clinging right to that major 4493-88 support zone right as I write this. As long as this general cluster keeps holding, the bull case is alive and well. Bear case today: Begins now on fail of 4475. As always - I don’t chase. I’d need to see a bounce there, followed by a base building. Then I’d consider short perhaps 4472. Wrap Up CPI day - it is not possible to predict and we can easily see 4300s or 4600s (or absolutely nothing). I’ll be reacting and picking my spots. If today were a normal day, my general lean would be that we would keep defending this 4493 support zone (4475 on any spikes down) then continue the rally to 4509, then onto high 4530s. Dip there before higher. 4475 fails, we sell. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
8/9: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap The week started with a squeeze due to ES back-testing the crucial 4493 level from its July 12th breakout. This led to a technically perfect 48 point rally on Monday. However, markets are known to be unpredictable and often trap players in a cycle of relentless dip buying and selling. Tuesday saw a sell-off from Monday's highs down to 4480s, followed by a hard squeeze in the afternoon. The squeeze started once again from the 4487-93 zone. Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up a bit 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Mixed 🔮 Crypto: Up World Headlines White House will announce today new investment restrictions in advanced technology industries such as advanced semiconductors, artificial intelligence and quantum computing. Key Structures Several key structures are in place, including a declining channel from the July 27th high, which is technically a bull flag. Support for this is now at 4493-87, and resistance will be at 4581-85. Other noteworthy levels include 4509, which has been a dominant magnet this week, and 4493-87, which represents major June/July resistance. Support Levels The support levels to watch are: 4515, 4505-09 (major), 4493-88 (major), 4475, 4464-66, 4450-53 (major), 4443 (major), 4432, 4420-23 (major), 4411, 4400 (major), 4387, 4370, 4362 (major), 4351, 4345 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4532 (major), 4540, 4548 (major), 4558, 4574, 4581-85 (major), 4597, 4607 (major), 4614, 4625, 4637-40 (major), 4655, 4665, 4674 (major), 4687 (major). Trading Plan Bulls need to hold the 4493 backtest, and 4509 should continue to hold as well. If 4509 fails, it could lead to a trip back down to 4493-88. For bears, 4509-05 needs to fail. In terms of adding on strength, a nice bull flag overnight below 4520 and above 4509 could lead to a push to 4530+. Wrap Up Bulls defended an important support at 4493, and now need to keep running this. The general lean is for bulls to continue defending 4509, then run to 4530 or so, dip, then 4548. If 4509 fails, it's back down the levels again.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
8/8: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap As predicted in my last newsletter, the ES saw a relief bounce after putting in 4 consecutive red days for the first time since May. I went long late on Friday afternoon at 4493 and we saw a rally from 4493 on Friday to 4522 overnight on Monday, followed by a dip and then a continued rise. This was due to a technical backtest of a 3-week ascending triangle that broke out on July 12th. Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly down 🌍 Europe: Down a lot 🌎 US Index Futures: Down a lot 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Up a bit World Headlines China CPI and PPI data show deflation becoming a serious concern Moody’s downgrades numerous US regional banks and puts six larger banks on watch Key Structures The core structure now is a downtrend channel, extending from the July 27th high. This is a bull flag, with support at 4493-87 and resistance at 4592. Inside this structure, the 4550 zone and the 4528 level are noteworthy. The large rising uptrend channel in white, connecting the March lows and the May lows, is the primary medium-term channel. Support Levels The major support levels are 4527, 4509, 4493-87, 4475-70, 4448-51, 4438, 4421, 4397-4402, 4350-55, and 4307-4311. Resistance Levels The major resistance levels are 4538, 4556, 4577-80, 4591, 4620, 4634, 4668. Trading Plan I'm still holding my leftover 10% runner from 4493 and will only add if we get a good dip. After yesterday's rally, I think tricky, tactical, back and forth action is likely today. The best entry would be if we clipped 4509 support then popped to 4515. I'm not interested in buying the 4509 again as it's no longer a fresh level. In terms of shorts, I favor 4556 and 4577-80. Wrap Up While we dip today, bulls will want to defend that 4509 support at the lowest. The direct bull case would look something like holding above 4527, popping to 4549 or 4556, then heading up to 4577-80. The short-term bear case begins with the fail of 4509. I think things likely get tactical today, rewarding level to level day traders only with no bias. Expect bi-directional action. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
8/7: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap August started off with a bearish week for ES, marking its first red week in a month. The month is historically bearish at the start but bullish towards the end. Last week saw a rare three consecutive red days, a pattern only exceeded once since the March low. A relief bounce was anticipated, with a target of 4550, which played out as expected. ES then experienced its 4th red day in a row last Friday. Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Down slightly 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Up a bit 🔮 Crypto: Mixed World Headlines Bond market volatility continues as Fridays strong bounce is starting to look like a dead cat bounce this morning. Key Structures Several main structures are being monitored, including a new downtrend channel extending from the July 27th high. This is technically a bull flag, but only becomes one on the breakout. Inside this structure, the 4550 zone is significant, having been tested three times and failed, triggering a 50 point sell. The 4524 level is another critical point, acting as support for the ascending triangle that broke out on July 12th. Support Levels Key support levels include 4493, 4487, 4475-73, 4461, 4448-53, 4443, 4425-30, 4413, and 4395-4400. Resistance Levels Resistance is found at 4509, 4515, 4520-24, 4534, 4538, 4547-50, 4555, 4567, 4578-80, 4585, 4592, 4597, 4609, 4617, and 4624. Trading Plan A small long position was taken at the 4493 level last Friday. If this zone fails, the market could free fall again, with the "major" zones being potential knife catch spots. For the bulls, the key hurdles are 4509 and 4524. For the bears, the case begins on the loss of 4487. Wrap Up While bears remain in control, there is caution over short-squeeze risk after four consecutive red days. The general lean for today is that ES can hold the 4487-93 zone, then try to retest 4520-24, perhaps with a small dip, then try higher. If 4487 fails, the market could continue downward. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 7.31-8.05 Last Week : We continued our distribution above 4570 which is our bigger time frame Resistance area. We have been going sideways building up supply here with a few attempts to continue towards upper part of HTF Resistance at 4666 but were met with selling. Key Support and Key Resistance for the week provided great trades up and down the range. Thursday we trapped buyers over 4615-4603 Resistance which gave us a look above and fail, market flushed but wasn't just yet ready to break 4570-62 and who ever got too short Thursday at the lows provided us with buying on Friday to bring us back towards our trapped supply area or start at Key Resistance. This Week : We have been building Supply in this 4570-4615 range for almost 2 weeks with a failure to get current Key Resistance. We have stops lined up below us and trapped buyers above, this tells us if the market cannot get over 4614 area, hold and then take out 4628-23 then we shouldn't be looking for continuation higher for now. Previous Day and T2 highs are right above us with trapped time and volume over 4615. If market cant get over 4615 and accept then we would look for rotation lower as the longs who are buying in this range are not getting the upside and could start selling out. If we start triggering lower stops that can bring more selling. If current Cost basis and Swing Stops below 4562 get taken then we could see a move towards the stops at 4548.75-43 with a look under around 4637 and possibly test our next Key Support at 4532.50-24. Our next cost basis would be just under that and we could see buying front running that area on first attempts unless we will have size selling that could break it and continue then we could stay around that lower range this week that is IF we break of course. For the market to continue higher we would need to either see buying to take us over 4615 right away and hold above trapped last weeks shorts under for support or get under 4603, build a base above 4590 and then take out 4603-10 again, after that I think we could target next ranges Resistances and stops. Levels to Watch : Current Support : 4603-4598.75 If Broken Could Target 4589.50-84.75 // 4570-62.50 If Broken Could Target 4551.25-48.75-43.75 Next Key Support 4532.50-24.25 Possible to see buyers around 4537 on first tests Current Key Resistance 4614.50-9.75 IF broken and hold above Could Target 4623-28 Next Key Resistance 4646.25-4336.50
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
5
8/4: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap As we've moved into August, we've seen a shift in the “character” of ES, with volatility returning and large, bi-directional swings in the market. Despite this, it's important to note that August is not a “bearish month” but rather a seasonally neutral month, with a +0.1% average over the last 20 years. The focus for this month will be on tactical, unbiased level to level day traders. Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Down a bit 🌎 US Index Futures: Up a bit 🛢 Crude Oil: Up a bit 💵 Dollar: Down 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Up slightly World Headlines Bond market showing early sign of stabilizing. Key Structures The core pattern containing the entire consolidation since the July 19th high was a broadening formation, which broke down on Wednesday. This pattern suggests that bears control below and bulls control above. Other key structures include the rising support trendline of the purple ascending triangle and the large rising uptrend channel in white. Support Levels Key support levels include 4525, 4517, 4509, 4493, 4487, 4476, 4464, 4448, 4441, 4428, 4411, 4395-4400, 4382, and 4376. Resistance Levels Resistance levels to watch are 4534, 4542, 4550-53, 4560, 4565, 4577-80, 4583, 4592, 4599, 4607-09, 4618, 4623, 4630, 4639, 4650, 4661, and 4671. Trading Plan For today, the short-term bull case depends on the 4509 level continuing to hold. The bear case begins if the 4509 level fails. As always, it's important to plan your zones of engagement in advance, wait for entry setup, take a level to level piece, then reset bias from scratch, and get to the sidelines. Wrap Up With the return of volatility, August is shaping up to be an interesting month for traders. Key levels and structures have been identified for both bull and bear scenarios, and as always, the focus should be on tactical, unbiased level to level trading. With Apple earnings expected to introduce some volatility into the market, it will be important to stay reactive and flexible in your trading approach. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro