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7/27: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Yesterday's FOMC session in ES was typical for those familiar with trading these sessions. Despite being defined by traps and volatility, there were several lucrative setups. We sold down to 4580, then right after the FOMC meeting undercut it by a couple of points, reclaimed, then put in a fantastic 25 point squeeze to ~4603 resistance, before rejecting into the second trap move. However, we ultimately ended the end basically unchanged. Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly up 🌍 Europe: Up strongly 🌎 US Index Futures: Up strongly 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Up a bit World Headlines Fed no longer forecasting recession while raising rates 25bps as expected. ECB raises rates 25bps as expected. Key Structures Some core big picture structures and levels I am watching now (from highest to lowest). These are big picture structures that drive the broad trend, and provide context and orientation to the daily price action. They are not meant to be “predictive” and I will be trading the levels in the below plan level to level, one move at a time. Support Levels Supports are: 4592-94, 4582 (major), 4572, 4565 (major), 4560, 4549, 4543 (major), 4528, 4520-23 (major), 4515, 4502, 4493-86 (major), 4475 (major), 4460, 4448 (major), 4431-35 (major), 4424, 4408 (major), 4388-93 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4607 (major), 4617-20, 4628, 4640 (major), 4650, 4663, 4668-71 (major), 4676, 4687 (major), 4700-05 (major), 4717, 4730, 4741 (major), 4755-60 (major). Trading Plan I am still holding my 10% long position. I consider everything between 4565 and 4607 to now be consolidation. Everything in this zone will be tactical, difficult chop and only traders taking level to level pieces out with 0 bias with profit. No trend until it breaks up or down, only traps and lack of conviction. Wrap Up In summary for today: I am holding long still and waiting for breakout. I consider 4607-4565 to be a large triangle and price inside this range is very trappy and impossible to predict - I will be watching for failed breakdowns to add exposure as always. My general lean is that we fill out this range more, then attempt the breakout which would target 4617-20, then 4640. 4565 fails, we sell.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
7/26: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap In the last week, ES built a sideways base after a steep rally, forming a new chart pattern between 4590s and 4560s. Yesterday, we saw a breakout and a continued upward trend. This pattern was a triangle with a bullish breakout bias, which broke out this morning at 4590, starting a push higher. However, there is concern as the breakout occurred before the FOMC meeting, adding risk to those in the breakout move. Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Down a lot 🌎 US Index Futures: Down slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down slightly World Headlines FOMC rate statement later today and ECB tomorrow. Key Structures The green triangle pattern broke out yesterday, with support now at 4564 and resistance around 4580. The light blue channel resistance broke out on July 13th and is now a key support at 4540. The major June/July resistance is at 4486-93, and the large rising uptrend channel in white has support currently at 4390 with resistance at 4635. Support Levels Supports are at 4593-95, 4580-84, 4572, 4565, 4560, 4555, 4542-44, 4537, 4525, 4515, 4493, 4486, 4474, 4462, 4453, 4448, 4442, 4430-35, 4425, 4414, 4408, 4402, and 4389-93. Resistance Levels Resistances are at 4603, 4608, 4612-14, 4624, 4635, 4650-53, 4665-70, 4683, 4694, 4700-03, 4709, 4725, and 4740. Trading Plan Today's trading plan will be light, perhaps not trading at all unless an A+ setup is seen. The core task for bulls will be to maintain the triangle breakout, particularly the triangle support at 4565. If a deeper sell is seen, 4545 is the final support before a deep leg down to 4490s. Wrap Up Heading into the FOMC meeting, it's important to note that these days are often filled with traps and are generally unpredictable. The best approach is to react to the market, not try to predict it. It's also crucial to size down and avoid gambling in the post-FOMC noise. Today, it will be important for bulls to hold 4565 on any FOMC flushes down. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
7/25: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap In my last newsletter, I predicted a bounce from 4564 back to 4580-90, and this played out perfectly yesterday. ES has now put in 5 daily candles stacked side by side, suggesting a large move is incoming. We are now consolidating for the next big move, with the FOMC on Wednesday being a potential catalyst. Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly up, China up strongly 🌍 Europe: Up a bit 🌎 US Index Futures: Mixed 🛢 Crude Oil: Down a bit 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Down slightly World Headlines China’s Politburo vows to “adjust and optimize policies in a timely manner” and increase stimulus to jump start economic recovery. Russia attacks Ukraine grain export infrastructure and ports. Key Structures The pattern forming now looks like a rough triangle, with 4560-62 support, and 4590-92 resistance. Some core big picture structures and levels I am watching now include 4590-92, 4560-62, 4539, and 4493-97. Support Levels Supports are: 4583, 4572 (major), 4560-62 (major), 4548, 4539 (major), 4529, 4523, 4516, 4505, 4493 (major), 4487, 4476 (major), 4460-63, 4448-50 (major), 4441, 4433 (major), 4418 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4593-95 (major), 4604 (major), 4616, 4629 (major), 4640, 4655, 4667 (major), 4676 (major), 4683, 4694, 4703 (major). Trading Plan Currently, I am still holding my 10% long runner. With today being a pre-FOMC day, I would not be surprised to see very complex, difficult bi-directional chop. The key supports today to watch are 4572 and 4560-62. If we do get the breakout, I would not be surprised if we run to 4630 before any micro-dip. Wrap Up In summary, we remain in complex chop and this should be the case until FOMC on Wednesday. This will be a level to level traders market. I see 4590-4560 as being pure chop. Ideally, we can sell to test 4572ish, perhaps bounce there back up the levels and continue filling out the above-mentioned range and triangle until FOMC, which would favor a bullish breakout. If 4560 fails, its short to 4539. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
7/21-7/24: Weekend Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Over the past 1.5 weeks, we've seen a significant long trade from 4420 on June 10th to 4585 this week, thanks to the market’s 8 straight days of higher highs with nearly no pullback. However, on Thursday, we lost the first major support in 1.5 weeks, triggering the first short in the same time period for ~30 points, before bouncing. We're now in what I call post-trend conditions, and it's time for complex, corrective action. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down a bit 🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down World Headlines G20 Energy Transitions Working Group Meeting in Goa India ends without agreement on phasing out fossil fuels. Key Structures Some core big picture structures and levels I am watching now include 4590-93, 4533-37, 4493-97, and the large rising uptrend channel in white. These structures drive the broad trend and provide context and orientation to the daily price action. Support Levels Supports are: 4564, 4552 (major), 4545, 4533-37 (major), 4523, 4516, 4497-93 (major), 4487, 4467-70 (major), 4454 (major), 4441, 4431 (major), 4420, 4408 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4572 (major), 4482, 4490-93 (major), 4603 (major), 4619, 4627 (major), 4640, 4650-55 (major), 4664, 4672(major), 4680, 4691, 4700-05 (major). Trading Plan For today, I’ll be focusing on pure reaction at the levels. If I had to provide a coin toss guess, I’d like to see something like bounce from 4564 back to 4580-90, perhaps dip then 4533-37, but we could easily sell to 4533-37 there directly. I’ll trade whatever path it takes. Wrap Up We're now in complex, corrective action after a 190 point rally. Days like Thursday and Friday will be the norm, and they will punish those who are trying to “predict”. Take it level to level, one move at a time. After a big trend move, I am always on the lookout for the early stages of classical chart pattern formation on the 4hr chart. When do choppy conditions end and trend conditions resume? When a pattern forms and breaks out. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
7/20: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap For the first time in years, the market has seen two continuous trades without stop outs. Long 4420 on July 9th, with a trailing stop kicking me out last Friday at 4538 (trade 1, 113 points). Then this week, long 4533 on Monday, with trailing stop still going for 70 points, making these the best trades of 2023 by a very large margin. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Up a bit 🌎 US Index Futures: Mixed 🛢 Crude Oil: Up a bit 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Up World Headline Negative reaction to Telsa and Netflix putting pressure on investor optimism after a solid start to earnings season. Key Structures The success of these trades were due to simple, widely accessible technical analysis: A 3 week ascending triangle which tested support last Wednesday, broke out Thursday, then ran to its measured move target. A structure based trailing stop system that kept me in the trade. Support Levels Some core big picture structures and levels I am watching now (from highest to lowest) are 4588, 4532, 4493. Resistance Levels The large rising uptrend channel in white. This connects the March lows and the May lows is the primary medium term channel. Support is currently 4370 and the most immediate resistance line is 4617 now (with 5000+ being the upper rail and ultimate long-term magnet as long as the channel is play). Trading Plan My plan is to hold my 25% runner from this morning as it has not clipped 4613-14 next target up yet for a profit take. I am more cautious with longs now, sizing them smaller, as we are up in a strong resistance zone and these “elevated” conditions are my absolute least favorite to trade, with little comparison. Wrap Up While this phase of the trend will end with a multi-week period of complex chop and correction, it is important to remain focused on the core big picture structures and levels that drive the broad trend, and provide context and orientation to the daily price action. These are not meant to be “predictive” and I will be trading the levels in the below plan level to level, one move at a time. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
7/17: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Last week was a remarkable week, with the market dictating an exceptional, uninterrupted position from Sunday until late Friday. This steep uptrend was triggered by a perfect, 3-week ascending triangle, starting at 4420, with a 4485 breakout level and a 4575 target. This move was extreme and euphoric, with risks attached. The ability to draw lines, tune out noise, and stick to a disciplined trade management process was key in navigating this move. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Flat 🧐 Yields: Down slightly 🔮 Crypto: Down a bit World Headline Russia pulls out of Black Sea grain deal, wheat futures surge. Key Structures The major June/July resistance and the ascending triangle structure in purple are key structures to watch. The breakout point which is the zone between 4493 and 4476 is also crucial. The large rising uptrend channel in white, connecting the March lows and the May lows, is the primary medium term channel. Support Levels Supports are at: 4526 (major), 4515, 4500-4503, 4493-88 (major), 4476 (major), 4469, 4463 (major), 4453, 4448-44 (major), 4434-31 (major), 4424, 4414 (major), 4404-07, 4493 (major), 4387, 4383 (major), 4374, 4366, 4350-55 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are at: 4537-43 (major), 4556, 4569-72, 4583-85 (major), 4593, 4600-05 (major), 4613, 4620-25 (major), 4637, 4645 (major), 4651, 4663, 4672 (major). Trading Plan In terms of trade plan, the first support cluster down on today is 4526 with 4515 just below and fail of this zone likely triggers a deeper sell back to 4493. A deep sell down to 4493-88 as well as 4476 would be levels to consider a direct bid. For those who do like risky trades, the 4583-85 levels as well as the 4600-05 levels would be spots to look for sell reactions. Wrap Up The week just ended saw one of the strongest trend moves in years. It is expected that the market may see tactical, possibly corrective action today. After an easy week of runners paying out, it will likely be back to level to level trading for a period. As always, the plan is to be purely reactive and let the price set back up again. No forecasting, no predicting. We could test that 4526, perhaps 4515 cluster, try a good bounce back to 4556 from here then do more consolidation/pullback. 4526 fails, we sell down to 4490s. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
7/14: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap This week was another successful one for classical technical analysis traders. The week's movements were driven by a simple, textbook ascending triangle structure, which I have been discussing since Friday. I took a long position from 4420, which is now up over 100 points. This entry point was chosen due to its support of the large triangle structure. The resistance was at 4480-90, and ES went parabolic on Wednesday post-CPI on the breakout of that structure. This strong run from 4420 has been characterized by rare price action, with ES not closing a single 4hr candle below its prior candle's low since Sunday overnight. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly up a bit 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Down slightly 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Down World Headline China promises more stimulus and attempts to woo foreign investors. Key Structures 4478 and 4493: This represents the major June/July resistance and is the resistance of the ascending triangle structure. 4456: This back-tests where we broke out late Tuesday. 4440: This is support of the purple ascending triangle. The large rising uptrend channel in white: This connects the March lows and the May lows is the primary medium term channel. Support Levels The support levels for today are: 4540 (major), 4532, 4526-23 (major), 4510, 4497, 4493 (major), 4486, 4478 (major), 4461, 4456 (major), 4448, 4437-4442 (major), 4431, 4424, 4414 (major), 4402 (major), 4393, 4383 (major) Resistance Levels The resistance levels for today are: 4547 (major), 4559, 4571 (major), 4577-80 (major), 4595-4600 (major), 4613, 4620 (major), 4627, 4640-45 (major), 4655, 4680 (major) Trading Plan Today, I will likely not take any new entries unless we get a real sharp multi-level selloff to some buyable supports. The first support down from here is 4540. I'd prefer to see the 4526-23 level tested which has a marginally larger chance of holding for any bids. If we fail there, I'd definitely be interested in buying the triangle back-test which is currently the 4493 level. Wrap Up In summary, it's been an incredible leg up and I'll just be taking it light today and focused on protecting my profits. We are at risk now of a consolidation or corrective period. My loose lean is that ES could dip to 4523-26 lowest, perhaps consolidate more, then continue the leg up to 4559 then onto high 4570s ultimate target. If 4523 fails, we do the 4493 backtest. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
7/13: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap In last week's newsletter, we highlighted the rally from 4420 to 4500+ as one of the biggest point moves of 2023. The market had built a classic ascending triangle pattern with 4420 support and 4490ish resistance. This week, the market dipped to 4420 support, ran to triangle resistance at 4490 before the CPI release, and then broke out yesterday, squeezing the market. The breakout led to a multi-week chart pattern, indicating higher targets for the future. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up strongly 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Down slightly 💵 Dollar: Down 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Up World Headline Falling inflation spurs global rally. Key Structures The major structures to watch include the ascending triangle pattern with 4420 support and 4490ish resistance. We have already seen a breakout from this pattern. The next important structure is the large rising uptrend channel connecting the March lows and May lows. The support is currently at 4350 and resistance at 4575. Support Levels 4506, 4494, 4479, 4464, 4448-50, 4441, 4432, 4424, 4416, 4400-4405, 4393, 4380-82, 4369, 4345-50, 4337, 4326, 4317, 4305, and 4290 Resistance Levels 4520-25, 4534, 4543-45, 4565, 4570-75, 4585, 4592, 4601-03, 4615, 4635, and 4649 Trading Plan Today, the bull case is in play above the breakout. If we see any dips, 4479 would be the lowest point for bulls. As long as we are above the ascending triangle breakout, the bull case could see us base between 4493 and 4525 before moving up to 4534, 4545, and then 4570-75. The bear case begins when the breakout fails. The first warning would be the failure of 4493. If we see a bounce here and deep acceptance of the level, 4490 may be a spot to try for the scalp down. Wrap Up We have seen a significant breakout and now the market needs to defend this breakout. Although we have rallied straight from 4420 with only tight sideways consolidations, it wouldn't be surprising to see the market build a base between 4520 and 4494. If the market remains strong, we may not even lose 4506. However, if we fall below 4493, we may see a sell-off. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
7/11: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Last week, ES experienced a deep late-day flush from the 4467-73 target area, landing at the 4420 level. Despite a 30-point rally, ES has largely remained stationary since late June. This period of range trading, between 4420-4490, is likely to continue for some time, providing a level-to-level day trader environment. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up strongly 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down slightly World Headline The Nasdaq 100 index will be rebalanced to reduce the dominance of the largest mega-cap stocks within it. The new weighting will be announced on July 14, taking effect for pre-market trading on July 24. Sweden will likely be admitted to NATO today at their annual summit. Asian equities higher as China announces loan relief for it’s troubled real estate sector. Key Structures The price action since Friday has been volatile, with a squeeze from 4430 to 4470s late Friday afternoon, followed by a rapid sell-off down to 4011, and then a rally back to 4440s. The big picture structures and levels to watch for now are 4485-95, 4460, 4420, 4382, and the large rising uptrend channel in white. Support Levels Supports are at: 4432-35 (major), 4423, 4418 (major), 4407, 4393 (major), 4380-83 (major), 4365 (major), 4350, 4344, 4328-33 (major) 4315-20 (major) Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4442 (major), 4451, 4461 (Major), 4468, 4484 (major), 4493 (major), 4511 (major), 4520, 4530-33 (major), 4543, 4553 (Major), 4575-4580 (major), 4593, 4605 (major) Trading Plan The bull case would involve continued base building in the 4420-40 range, then a breakout targeting 4461. The bear case would begin with the fail of 4418, followed by a period of acceptance and then a short after perhaps 4415. Wrap Up In summary, ES is currently in a basing period. As long as 4418 holds, we can expect continued basing in the 4420-40 range and then a breakout to 4461. However, a fail of 4418 would signal a bearish turn. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
7/10: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Last week was a testament to the power of simple technical analysis. We saw a fantastic continuation off the 4420 level last Friday. As predicted, we based under 4450 all morning, then ran to the 4467-72 target, then dipped. We broke out 4420 last week, rallied, then backtested last week. However, it's not quite "all clear" for new highs yet. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Mixed near unchanged 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Down slightly World Headline Chinese inflation falls flat. Key Structures Some core big picture structures and levels being watched now include the 4485-93 resistance zone, the 4468 zone which triggered the selloff on Thursday, the 4420-25 breakout origin point, and the 4377-82 level. The large rising uptrend channel in white is the primary medium term channel with support currently at 4325. Support Levels Supports are: 4463, 4450 (Major), 4441 (major), 4433, 4420 (major), 4407, 4403-07 (major), 4392, 4378-82 (major), 4369, 4358, 4345 (major), 4337, 4325 (major), 4317, 4300-05 (major), 4280-85 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4467 (major), 4480-85 (major), 4493 (major), 4503-05, 4518, 4527-30 (major), 4540, 4550 (major), 4558, 4570-75 (major), 4585, 4600-05 (major), 4620 (major), 4630, 4641 (major). Trading Plan The plan for today is to watch the first supports down at 4449 and 4443. If we sell deeper, the 4420 level will be watched again. If we fail there we likely get a hard sell and I'll be considering short down to 4380. The bull case today is fully in play above 4420. The bear case would begin on the fail of 4420. Wrap Up In summary, we are in range trading now 4420-4490 and may stay here for many days or even weeks. This will be a level to level day traders environment, and next to impossible to predict. My loose lean is we can backtest 4450 or ideally 4443, then try another push to 4467 then ultimately beyond. If 4420 fails, I am short. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
7/7: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Yesterday brought about the biggest dip in ES since April 23rd, which was then promptly bought up. A three-day flag pattern with 4464 support failed, triggering the first short in over a week. The selloff ended at the 4420-25 zone, which was the breakout origin point last Thursday. This represented a fantastic buy opportunity and the low of the day. Key Structures Several core big picture structures and levels were highlighted. The 4467-74 zone is the support of the multi-day bull flag. For bulls to regain full control, they must reclaim this zone. The 4420-25 zone is the breakout origin point and started the most recent 70 point squeeze higher. The 4377-82 level is the back-test of the perfect green channel structure connecting the February and December highs. If this fails, it would be the 2nd major support loss. The large rising uptrend channel in white connects the March lows and the May lows and is the primary medium term channel. Support Levels Supports are: 4441, 4430-31, 4420-24 (major), 4413 (major), 4402, 4394, 4378-82 (major) 4370, 4359, 4350-45 (major), 4338, 4328 (major), 4317-22 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4451 (major), 4462, 4467-73 (major), 4480 (major), 4487 (major), 4493, 4500-4503 (major), 4514, 4521 (major), 4532 (major), 4537, 4545 (major). Trading Plan The plan for today is to continue defending the 4420 level, which keeps a new leg up in play. If the 4420 level is tested again, it is likely still a strong buy. The bear case begins on the failure of 4420. In order to re-establish the move up and put bulls back in control, ES needs to reenter the structure that caused yesterday's selloff at 4467-73. The bull case is in play as long as the 4420 backtest keeps holding. Wrap Up Yesterday was an example of the power of simple technical analysis. The key task for bulls from here will be to continue defending 4420, which keeps a new leg up in play. The bull case is in play as long as the 4420 backtest keeps holding. If 4420 fails, we take another big leg down. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
S&P 500 (SPX) Looking for Short Term PullbackShort term Elliott Wave view in S&P 500 (SPX) suggests that the rally from 3.13.2023 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse structure. Up from 3.13.2023 low, wave ((i)) ended at 4186.92. Dips in wave ((ii)) ended at 4046.07 as the 60 minutes chart below shows. Up from there, wave (i) ended at 4147.02 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 4098.92. Index extends higher in wave (iii) towards 4441.2 and dips in wave (iv) ended at 4328.08. Final leg higher wave (v) ended at 4458.48 which completed wave ((iii)). Pullback in wave ((iv)) is in progress to correct cycle from 5.4.2023 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing. Down from wave ((iii)), wave (a) ended at 4385.05. Expect wave (b) rally to fail below 4458.48 and the Index to turn lower in wave (c) before it completes wave ((iv)) and resumes higher. Wave ((iv)) typically ends somewhere at the 23.6 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of wave ((iii)). That area is at 4301.2 – 4361.1. From here, the Index can find buyers for further upside. Near term, as far as pivot at 4046.07 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
SP:SPX
by Elliottwave-Forecast
7/6: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Last week ES executed a fantastic 130 point squeeze, with a long trade from 4413 that trailed to a stop out yesterday. The past three days have been a complex trading period, with ES trapping both longs and shorts. The question now is when the next trend leg will occur and where it will lead. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down a lot 🌍 Europe: Down a lot 🌎 US Index Futures: Down a lot 🛢 Crude Oil: Down a bit 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Up a lot 🔮 Crypto: Up slightly World Headline Janet Yellen arrives in Beijing for high-level talks. Key Structures There are several core structures and levels to watch, from highest to lowest. These include: 4465-67 with 4460 just below, 4420-25, the 4377 level, and the large rising uptrend channel in white. These structures drive the broader trend and provide context to daily price action. Support Levels Supports are: 4480-82(major), 4474, 4467 (major), 4460, 4442-45 (major), 4433, 4420-25 (major), 4413 (major), 4408, 4394, 4387 (major), 4377-81 (major), 4368, 4350 (major), 4342, 4328-30 (major), 4315-20 (major), 4300, 4286, 4275 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4490 (major), 4502-4505 (major), 4516 (major), 4530, 4537-40 (major), 4550, 4560, 4566-70 (major), 4575, 4590 (major), 4605-4610 (major), 4625, 4635-40 (major). Trading Plan The trading plan includes watching for failed breakdowns for adds, bidding the 4480 and 4474 levels directly, and watching for a potential deep free fall to try longs at 4442-45 and 4420-25. If there's a breakout of the bull flag at 4491, avoid shorting. If ES is going to fail the breakout, look for a test of 4502 and rejection. Wrap Up After a massive 123 point trend, expect a period of complex and challenging trading. Flexibility is key. The general lean is that ES can fill out the bull flag more, then try the breakout to 4500+. A failure at 4467 is the first warning for bulls. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
7/5: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Last week we saw a massive 75-point one-day squeeze on Friday, following a long position at 4420 on Thursday. This was a rare occurrence, with moves of this magnitude happening on less than 3% of trading days annually. This happened due to a textbook bull flag pattern formed between June 16-26th, which then broke out at 4420 on Thursday. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Down World Headline The stock market has taken a hit due to a missed Chinese Services PMI report. China has placed export restrictions on rare earth metals used in semiconductor production. Key Structures The key structures to watch are 4458-64 & 4420-25, the bull flag in orange from the June highs, the 4374 level, and the large rising uptrend channel in white. Support Levels Supports are: 4485 (major), 4477-80, 4458-64 (major), 4442 (major), 4431, 4420-23 (major), 4413, 4404 (major), 4393 (major), 4382, 4376 (major), 4364, 4350-55 (major), 4345, 4330 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4493, 4502 (major), 4515, 4524, 4532-34 (major), 4549, 4560-65 (major), 4572, 4585 (major), 4595, 4605 (major), 4611, 4624, 4630-35 (major). Trading Plan As long as we are above last Thursday's 4420 breakout zone, there is no bear case. However, 4480-77 will be key to watch. If we continue flagging below 4493 and above 4480ish, I may consider adding more to my long. If we fail at 4480-77, this may represent a good quick level to level scalp on the short side. Wrap Up In summary, as long as 4480 keeps holding, a small bull flag from Friday is in play. This would target 4500-4502, then if that clears, we can push up the levels. First mini-dip begins on the fail of 4477-80 and possible short. As always, these plans may change as the market evolves. Always remember to trade responsibly. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
7/3: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap The past week has seen a strong bull flag pattern forming, with a breakout occurring late last week. This breakout led to a strong squeeze and a significant rally, demonstrating the power of simple technical analysis. The bull flag breakout is expected to target the 4560s, but the exact path to this target is unpredictable. We've also seen a continuation of the Thursday/Friday rally cycle, a characteristic of bull markets. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up strongly 🌍 Europe: Mixed 🌎 US Index Futures: Near unchanged 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Mixed 🔮 Crypto: Up a bit World Headline Saudi Arabia vows to maintain production cuts ahead of Wednesday’s OPEC meeting. Chinese manufacturing data continues to decline but reports stronger than expectations. Key Structures The bull flag pattern, which extends from June highs to lows, is a key structure to watch. It broke out at around 4420 and the rally that followed is what a bull flag breakout looks like. Another structure to watch is the 4374 level, which is the back-test of the green channel structure connecting the February and December highs. The large rising uptrend channel in white, connecting the March and May lows, is another important structure. The main breakout level from June 1st and 2nd is also crucial. Support Levels The major support levels are at 4485, 4463, 4445, 4423, 4411-13, 4393, 4374, 4357, 4351, and 4333. Resistance Levels The major resistance levels are at 4502, 4527, 4551, 4558, 4572-78, 4595, and 4620-25. Trading Plan Given the recent breakout and upcoming holiday sessions, it's time to lay back and let the price set up again. The focus is on reacting rather than predicting. The bull case suggests that if bulls can hold 4480-85 or recover it quickly, a direct trajectory higher could be in play. The bear case, while a long way off, suggests that a fail of 4460 on Wednesday could provoke a good short setup. Wrap Up We remain in a consolidating market to setup a move. ES tried to breakout a bull flag yesterday and the loose lean is that as long as 4420 or 4400-05 holds, we can push to 4445 and then 4460. 4372 remains the must hold final support and below there look for shorts. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
6/30: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap In the last week, we saw the ES put in a 6-day buyable pullback leg, forming a textbook bull flag pattern. The bottom of this pattern was found at the 4372 support level, leading to a 60+ point rally higher. This pattern once again demonstrates the predictive power of simple chart patterns. We are now heading into a period of Holiday Trading, which is traditionally a strong period. Can ES keep its momentum up? The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Up strongly 🌎 US Index Futures: Up strongly 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down a bit 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Up strongly World Headline China manufacturing PMI shows continued contraction, but Chinese equity markets up on expectation of further stimulus. Key Structures The key structures to watch are the falling channel from the June highs, the 4374 level, the main breakout level from June 1st and 2nd, and the large rising uptrend channel. These structures provide the broad trend and context for the daily price action. Support Levels The major support levels are at 4420-22, 4400-5, 4390-93, 4374-76, 4350-53, 4346, 4334, 4318, 4295-4300, and 4286. These levels are key for bulls to hold in order to keep the rally going. Resistance Levels The major resistance levels are at 4440-45, 4460, 4480-85, 4503, 4520, 4545, 4555, and 4568-71. If we breakout higher, shorts are risky. The 4460 level in particular is a spot to watch for a potential pullback. Trading Plan The bull case for today is that as long as 4420 or 4400-4405 holds, bulls can continue base building above 4420, targeting a push higher to 4445 and then 4460. The bear case is that if 4374 fails, look for shorts. There is also a riskier breakdown short on the fail of 4420. Wrap Up We remain in a consolidating market to setup a move. ES tried to breakout a bull flag yesterday and the loose lean is that as long as 4420 or 4400-05 holds, we can push to 4445 and then 4460. 4372 remains the must hold final support and below there look for shorts. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
6/29: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap This week saw the continuation of our Technical Analysis 101 principles, with the ES rallying 330 points from its May 24th low and experiencing its first 6-day pullback last week. The pullback stopped at exactly the 4372 level, which had been identified over a week ago. This level was the breakout point of a 6-month rising channel on June 12th. We also saw several more trades set up yesterday, with the 4400 zone proving key. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Mixed 🌎 US Index Futures: Mixed 🛢 Crude Oil: Down slightly 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Up a lot 🔮 Crypto: Up World Headline According to recent reports, the top 23 banks in the nation have successfully passed the stress test conducted by the Federal Reserve. This means that even in the event of a severe global recession, these banks will be capable of continuing their lending activities. Key Structures Several core big picture structures and levels are being watched, including the falling channel from the June highs, the 4374 level, the main breakout level from June 1st and 2nd, and the large rising uptrend channel in white. Support Levels Key support levels for today include 4408, 4402-4400 (major), 4393, 4383 (major), 4373 (major), 4364, 4350-53 (major), 4345, 4334 (major), 4328, 4321-17 (major), 4311, 4294 (major), and 4281-86 (major) Resistance Levels Resistance levels to watch are 4413, 4421-25 (major), 4433 (major), 4443, 4451 (major), 4460 (major), 4475-80 (major), 4485, 4501-05 (major), 4515, 4527, 4536-40 (major), 4553 (major), 4564 (major), 4572, 4584 (major), and 4600-05 (major) Trading Plan The bull case is generally in play as long as we are above the 4373 level, with the 4400 level being essential today. The bear case begins on the fail of 4373. The current complex consolidation zone requires careful navigation, but the general lean is towards a trip to 4433 and then 4450 as long as 4400 holds. Wrap Up This week has been a victory for our Technical Analysis 101 principles, with the ES rallying and pulling back at key levels. With several core structures and levels being monitored, the current consolidation zone requires careful navigation. As always, the trading plan depends on the holding or failing of key levels. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
6/28: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap After a five-week rally, the ES saw its first pullback phase last week, with five out of six days in the red. However, the pullback ended at 4372, a multi-month support level. This led to a 30-point rally, highlighting the power of simple channels. Yesterday’s rally was also set up by a clean failed breakdown late yesterday. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly up 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit 🛢 Crude Oil: Down a bit 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down World Headline A group of top bankers, consisting of Powell, Lagarde, Bailey, and Ueda, gathered in Portugal to participate in a panel discussion about central bank policy. Key Structures The channel in orange from the June highs - this structure has controlled the entire 6 day selloff from Junes highs. The 4373 level - very important and mentioned above/all last week. The main breakout level from June 1st and 2nd. The large rising uptrend channel in white. This connects the March lows and the May lows. Support Levels 4412, 4399-4402 (major), 4393, 4383-86 (major), 4374 (major), 4357-60, 4346 (major), 4336 (major), 4326, 4313, 4295 (major), 4285 (major), 4278, 4264-67 (major), 4250-55 (major) Resistance Levels 4421 (major), 4432-35 (major), 4444, 4451, 4467-70 (major), 4477 (major), 4485, 4497-4502 (major), 4510, 4520, 4533 (major), 4541 (major), 4560 (major) Trading Plan Bulls are in play as long as we are above 4374. Shorter-term, the 4400 zone will be key. Bears will take over on the fail of 4372. I don’t chase, so I’d need to see a bounce or some type of reaction at 4373, then I’d be looking short perhaps 4368 for a move down to the 4346 zone. Wrap Up We had a big run yesterday and now price will need to setup again. I expect some complexity from here. My loose lean is that we test 4430ish then do some back-testing/chopping (perhaps 4404 etc) before trying higher. I’m short again if 4372 fails. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
S&P 500 Futures (ES) Looking to Extend Rally HigherShort term Elliott Wave View in E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES) suggests the rally from 3.13.2023 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 3.13 low, wave ((i)) ended at 4206.25 and dips in wave ((ii)) ended at 4062.25. The Index extends higher in wave ((iii)) towards 4493.75. Pullback in wave ((iv)) completed at 4368.59 with internal subdivision as a zigzag structure. Down from wave ((iii)), wave i ended at 4410.5 and wave ii ended at 4444.75. Index then resumes lower in wave iii towards 4403.5, and rally in wave iv ended at 4430.75. The last leg lower wave v ended at 4393 which completed wave (a). Index then rally in wave (b) towards 4427 and wave (c) lower ended at 4368.59 which completed wave ((iv)) in higher degree. Index has turned higher in wave ((v)). Up from wave ((iv)), wave i ended at 4387.75 and pullback in wave ii ended at 4371.50. Index then resumes higher in wave iii towards 4424.75 and dips in wave iv ended at 4407. Near term, as far as pivot at 4368.59 low stays intact, expect Index to extend higher.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
6/27: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Yesterday was another complex session, with the price largely ping-ponging between 4404 resistance and the 4370-80 support zone. The tight range will resolve with a good move, but the direction remains uncertain. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly up 🌍 Europe: Down slightly 🌎 US Index Futures: Up a bit 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Down 🧐 Yields: Up a bit 🔮 Crypto: Up World Headline The Central Banking conference has started, and it will feature speeches from various global central bankers, including Jay Powell, over the next two days. Key Structures The channel in orange from the June highs - a bull flag with support at 4374 and resistance around 4444 The 4373 level - the most recent breakout zone from Monday, June 12th The main breakout level from June 1st and 2nd - currently 4280-85 The large rising uptrend channel in white - support is currently 4280-85 and the most immediate resistance rail is 4530 Support Levels 4,382 (major), 4,373 (major), 4,366, 4,357, 4,336-4,341 (major), 4,328, 4,318, 4,300 (major), 4,293, 4,280-4,285 (major), 4,270-4,275 (major), 4,262, 4,247 (major) Resistance Levels 4,393, 4,402 (major), 4,413 (major), 4,425-4,430 (major), 4,444, 4,460 (major), 4,472, 4,485 (major), 4,492, 4,502 (major), 4,512, 4,525-4,530 (major), 4,542, 4,550-4,555 (major) Trading Plan For longs, consider bidding directly at the 4382-73 support zone, or wait for a test of 4366 or a flush of yesterday's lows and recovery For shorts, consider shorting at major resistance levels, particularly 4413 and 4425-30 Bulls need to clear 4402 to regain control Bears will gain control if 4366 fails Wrap Up We remain in corrective mode with bears in short-term control until a strong resistance clears. Expect complex price action to continue, with the focus on nimble, level-to-level trading. The general lean is for a retest of 4402 and ultimately 4413 if 4372 holds, but another leg down if 4366 fails. React to the path that price chooses. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
6/26: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Last week, ES experienced a red week for the first time in five weeks, beginning a corrective leg. The dip was slow and labored, indicating a possible bull flag pattern. The market remains choppy and complex, with a focus on reacting to real-time trade plans rather than predicting trends. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Near unchanged 🌎 US Index Futures: Unchanged 🛢 Crude Oil: Up slightly 💵 Dollar: Down 🧐 Yields: Down a lot 🔮 Crypto: Down World Headline Despite the recent military turmoil over the weekend, it seems to have had little impact on the markets. However, traders remain vigilant in monitoring any developments in this potentially volatile situation. Key Structures Some core structures to watch include the possible bull flag pattern, the 4375ish level as the most recent breakout zone, the main breakout level from June 1st and 2nd, and the large rising uptrend channel in white. Support Levels 4382, 4374, 4358, 4340, 4317, 4286, 4270-75 Resistance Levels 4411-13, 4422, 4452, 4467, 4485, 4495-4500, 4520-25, 4546, 4567-70 Trading Plan For today, the bull case begins with watching support of the bull flag structure, with possible exposure at the reclaim of 4393. The bear case starts with the failure of 4374, requiring a strong bounce or two and a good period of acceptance before considering a short at 4371. In both cases, focus on level-to-level profit-taking and reacting to real-time trade plans. Wrap Up Today's session is expected to be complex, with a potential re-test of 4400 if the 4382-74 support zone holds. As long as this zone holds, the market could test 4413, 4421, and then try higher. If 4374 fails, it's time for another short. Stay focused on reacting to real-time trade plans and avoid trying to predict trends. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
6/23: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap The market continued to follow the pattern of Mon-Wed weakness, Wednesday tight chop, and Thursday/Friday strength. This week, ES had a 30 point rally off the lows of the day, continuing the trend. However, there is still reason for caution as ES had a rare 3 red days in a row. In this newsletter, we will discuss the setup that produced yesterday's rally off 4393 support and provide the actionable trade plan for Friday. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down a lot 🌎 US Index Futures: Down a lot 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Down a lot 🔮 Crypto: Up World Headline Recession fears to the forefront as global PMI data released overnight and this morning shows sharp economic contraction in the EU, Japan and Australia. Key Structures Some of the core big picture structures and levels being watched include the 4375ish level, the main breakout level from June 1st and 2nd, and the large rising uptrend channel in white. The uptrend from March is in play as long as we are above this channel. Support Levels 4413(major), 4404 (major), 4380-82, 4374 (major), 4363, 4350, 4335-40 (major), 4325, 4317 (major), 4300-05 (major), 4280-85 (major), 4270 (major) Resistance Levels 4421 (major), 4432, 4445 (major), 4454, 4467 (major), 4481-85 (major), 4492, 4508, 4518-20 (major), 4542 (major), 4550, 4565 (major), 4580 (major) Trading Plan For today, the rally continues above 4404, and we sell/short below. Longs are risky after a good rally, so picking spots carefully is essential. The most immediate supports down from here are 4413 and 4404, which is the critical "must hold" support for today. If we go into freefall, the levels marked as major are spots to try knife catches. For the bull case, as long as the 4404 blue uptrend channel holds, the bull case remains in play for Friday. For the bear case, it begins on the failure of 4404. Wrap Up In summary, as long as 4404 keeps holding, ES can base under 4421 then try to take a trip to 4432, then 4445. If 4404 fails, we start a sell to 4382, 4374, which is a magnet and major support/spot to try longs. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro