ES support is at 3944 and 22Expect some choppiness here and reversal tomorrow.
Thursday is a panic day, we will see what it has in store with the developing news
Es_f
ES watch the bull flagWhile NQ is getting close to its resistance, ES is about to break the flag here.
Watching the flag to break to pop in on the long side, otherwise not really doing much at this time
Watching the close above 3959SPX for a continuation into 4010+ zone next week.
Will jump on the long side if we hold that level on the close
$SPY: updated short term viewWe have a setup indicating immediate upside towards the area where a cluster of earning season related key levels align, and the mid point of the Ukraine invasion range sits, to be hit likely by late November.
The question is whether bonds have bottomed long term here, as that suggests the trend in the Dollar is reversing, which could have big implications for earnings in foreign currency and basically everything as it impacts sovereign entities with Dollar denominated debt, households squeezed by rising mortgage rates, etc.
Regarding equities, we could be at a juncture where we have an extended sideways bear market, which doesn't exclude powerful rallies lasting a few months, with substantial corrections as well, perhaps lasting until the next decade. As usual, we go step by step, but I've selected some long term positions I intend to hold on to, for as long as logical, depending on how fundamentals evolve, rebalancing when needed or rotating into other names with a larger opportunity vs risk, etc.
Trading wise, I suggest to set aside 25% of the capital for short term trading and dedicate 75% of funds for long term ideas. Risking 0.25% per trade in the trading account (1% of 25%) has been solid advice since I recommended this to my client base back in March. It was not the time to play Rambo in markets...But some big moves are brewing here. If interested in learning more, contact me.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
ES broke down from the rising wedgeRising wedge was broken down and retested from the low
Im short here, scalp.
ES has to get above 3880 and stay thereWell we got a big a$$ green candle after the CPI.
The crash possibility is off the table, now lets see what the price to show us direction.
First yesterday's highs were taken, bullish sign.
The price must get above 3880ES and stay there, then it has a great chance of pushing up.
SPX main resistance is at 3905-07, closing above will get us to 3960 and ultimately 4010-20SPX.
Failing to close above 3880ES will fade the price down, can be a huge trap if that happens
ES nothing has changed in my view, setting up for a strong move ES nothing has changed in my view, setting up for a strong move down.
Should revisit the Oct 13th lows at min on the next move down.
It was a lunar eclipse today, was meditating during the middle of it, woke up 3am my time.
Slept in am to wake up to this rally, now its fading.
Markets usually either bottom or top during/around the eclipse days.
I expect this to be over either today or by the 10th.
Ideally we move down into the 10-11th and then one more up into the 15th
ES we got ABC up from Sunday open, SPX didntI posted ES chart on the weekend with the ABC move up, we got that, but didnt in SPX
ES Daily MACD is around 0 and RSI is around 50, no mans land, unless its a retest before more selling.
Im sticking to this chart for now and will add to my short going into tomorrow high (if we wont see one today)
Its a lunar eclipse tonight and elections tomorrow.
This will start moving hard very soon!
Do not force yourself into a trap, wait for a setup and then take it.
Im swing short and have a small protection for a move higher.
ES should retrace to 3750-55 and then another push upThis is how I see it going into tomorrow's high.
I see a truncated 5 down from the recent highs and now we are in 3 wave up move to finish the wave 2.
I do belive we have finished the A wave on Fri push into the close, now needs a retracement down to 3750 and another push into 3815-35 zone.
Wave 3 should bring us down to new lows into 34 handle territory.
Ideally we hit my 3212SPX target and mark the low for the year.
I do expect a maj low to get hi next year, 28 handle and ideally 2455 SPX zone.
ES support at 3726+- 2 pointsLets see if the price can hold 3726 support and push to 3768-74 before failing down again.
Bear flag to me
ES is close to breakdown, careful hereLower high and lower low so far, gotta be careful here.
I shorted first spike from 3866 and covered at 49, was few seconds trade. Not touching since after
I have only few puts left, rest sold on the first spike.
If it breaks, we short the kiss of the broken trendline from the bottom.
No need to over trade here, wait for the setup to come to you!
ES touched the bottom of the channelI didnt trade much this am except covered my ES put around 39ES as well as QQQ puts in am.
Going to do some research now and get ready for the FED craziness.
I personally think they will push it up, question if we break the trendline to trap bears or just spike up from the decision time
EMini /ES Futures Spooky Long setupFellow traders,
If the full moon tonight excites the animal within - I propose taking a look at the S&P500 daily chart... (although this is a 2hr chart for detail ;) Full bullish structure, a balance day after Friday's strong push. MA's are strong and previous price structure resembles a possible strong move to 4000
This entry isn't prime quality - I would like to enter cheaper, in fact I may just wait for 3820, but price action doesn't look like it will allow it and I get a hunch we may move higher quickly. My confidence in the up move this week outweighs hesitation.
Lets not forget the ghastly Fed meeting on Wednesday. Any shift in the Fed's ominous tone on the plan to increase interest rates in the future could create a lot of supernatural buying pressure - in fact that is what the charts are resonating to me.
If it's a treat I'm in. I'll comment if I raise the order in the morning. The plan will be to leave it valid for 2 days, I'm sure we will get a quick flash lower to that level.. *nod to zombie news traders finding liquidity lower before the blast higher.
Happy Halloween 2022! Trick-er-treat ES, you got Reeses Cups or Candy Corn?
ES in its trend channel, expecting 3814.50 to holdI think this channel will be broken after the FED announcement and the next rally will be a re-test of the broken channel from the bottom, aka death kiss
So far the support and resistance lines are on the chart for those who want to trade them
$spx is in good healthwe may or may not see another retest at former resistance zone, but it's time to start build long term long position in $spy and $spx
this chart is a zooming in of a sequence, I will publish images in comment.
ES is getting into Supply zoneABC extension up from Oct lows is at 3916-17ES
We are in supply zone, i want a retracement and one more push to upper level, might extend to 3925-30 but Im not playing it
ES morning updateFor those who trade ES
The trendline is broken, Im slightly long from 3830ES
2 supports to watch are 3814 and 3798, I will go long if we hit those targets
Looking for a green close (ideal) then dump tomorrow on AAPL earnings and am Data
ES at support This support has to break down for lower to be seen, otherwise still can hold and push into tomorrow.
Like I said, Im not playing it unless quick scalps
ES first support is at 3732-35 then 3709ES main support for today is at 3700-10
As longs as we hold today's lows, we should see lower levels into tomorrow imo
If it breaks out, check SPX chart I posted on the weekend.
Main resistance is at 3798SPX!
The price came close to it and retraced.
ABC structure from Oct lows is complete, 3 waves up are bearish, must hold 3820SPX on any close for lower to be seen.
I think we will re visit Oct 2nd low at min
ES at decision pointGood morning everyone!
Posted this chart last night, we are at the resistance point.
Must hold here if we see lower or breakout in C&H formation, that bull flag scares me!
I did exit my short at that 3650-55ES level and did few ins and outs in am.
Its Friday, do not over trade!
ES Bearish extension - Warning here if long!Its a very bearish extension by not even making it to 100%, we got only 78.6 off Oct 2nd and 3rd lows!
SPX support is at 3675
Like noted last night, ES better hold 3660 today or its gone.
The trendline support is at 3705-07
ES overnight setup for a brakoutWatch this breakout and the re-test of the breakout trendline!
Can be a very tricky stop run here, just above the trendline, so have stops regardless if you short or long.
I will be enetering with longs if the breakout zone holds for a move up to 3820ES or so (SPX target was 3800 for the C wave up)
