Are We Witnessing a Black Swan Event?I’ve spent most of the day digging through charts and studying past crashes — because what we’re living through right now might be a once-in-a-decade opportunity.
This current market crash feels eerily close to a black swan event.
No one really expected Trump to push tariffs this far, and the consequences are already rippling through global markets. If this escalates into true economic isolation, the effects could be both tremendous and long-lasting.
That said, there’s another possibility:
This might just be a blip in history — a bold negotiating tactic that works out, shocks the system temporarily, and fades away.
There’s even speculation this could mirror the 1989 crash, with some analysts warning of a potential 20% drop by Monday.
If that happens, I’d rather not be frozen by fear. I want to act with intention. I want my plan in place and my orders ready.
Before I share stock ideas I believe can outperform in the long run…
Let’s first walk through what I believe might be playing out — at least for now. (Keep in mind, these theses can change fast.)
Before the crash, it looked like a replay of 2022:
Markets were clearly overvalued and due for a correction — back then, it was driven by regional bank failures, and the Fed quickly stepped in to stabilize things.
But now, selling pressure is accelerating.
This looks less like 2022 and more like 2020 — where markets broke down in response to a larger, fast-moving, global crisis.
Even though we’re seeing similarities, things can shift very quickly.
We still haven’t seen key reversal signs — like a Doji candle — and more importantly, there’s been no intervention yet from the government or global forces.
Until that happens, panic may continue to snowball.
And as we know from history, panic doesn’t operate on logic.
Source:
📚 2020 Stock Market Crash en.wikipedia.org
